Meat and wool prices off to a great start
BEEF, lamb and crossbred wool prices have begun the new year in a healthy state for sheep and beef farmers, and price levels are showing welcome stability as the summer proceeds.
Helped by a weaker New Zealand dollar, prices for beef and lamb are $1.50-$2/kg higher than this time in early 2024, AgriHQ analysts said.
The United States imported 95CL price level is now a record NZ$12/kg (US$3.09/lb) and 90CL is $11.50/kg, both products some 40% higher than January 2024.
That has pushed NZ slaughter prices up to $7.14/kg for bull and $5.26/kg for manufacturing cow, compared with $5.60 and $3.80 respectively 12 months ago.
P/Y lambs are worth $8.05/kg in the North Island ($6 last year) and $7.80/kg in the South Island.
In-market prices for imported lamb cuts are up 40% in the United Kingdom and Europe (hind legs), and in China (forequarters) are 50% higher when converted back to NZ dollars.
AgriHQ senior analyst Mel Croad said lamb schedule prices have been up around $8/kg since the middle of November, when new season lambs started flowing into the processing plants.
“Typically lamb prices would
be easing into the New Year and would bottom out in late February, early March.
“But helped significantly by persistent rain on the dry east coasts of both islands, the store market is up 70c/kg since Christmas and the higher schedule prices look to be stable.
“Meat companies are very keen to book in lambs and cattle, while farmers want to hang on for higher slaughter weights.”
Prime beef and local trade schedule prices are up around $6.85/kg, slightly lower than manufacturing bull prices. Export demand for prime cuts hasn’t been as strong, relative to what is being seen in the US lean beef market. That partly reflects weaker economic conditions in those markets.
“Average export values for NZ beef are as high as we have seen them for some time.”
Croad said some beef prices in some markets were higher in 2022, after covid-19 caused all sorts of disruptions.
This time true supply and demand factors underpin meat prices for NZ products.
“In early 2024 the market prices were softer and the NZD higher.
“Now the counter seasonal situation is high market prices, a lower exchange rate and processing plants that aren’t full.”
That explains the $3.50/kg difference in NZD terms between
Plenty of heart still under the hood
Land Rover changed the way people farm in the 1940s and now the very first of the marque to be exported to New Zealand – which has been sitting under cover in a garage for nearly 30 years – is raising money for heart research. Photo: Ros Woodham
Maternal Bond means toddler’s on tour too
Double world record shearer Sacha Bond talks about what’s next after a successful year, the grind of being a single mum on the circuit and her aim to topple another world record.
Get in touch
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Farmers Weekly is Published by AgriHQ PO Box 529, Feilding 4740, New Zealand Phone: 0800 85 25 80 Website: www.farmersweekly.co.nz
ISSN 2463-6002 (Print) ISSN 2463-6010 (Online)
Contents
Focus
1-9
10-11
12-16
21-24
25
26
26-27
28-31
32
VALUE: Deer Industry New Zealand chief executive Rhys Griffiths says this year is about building the foundations for a new era for the deer industry based on value for products, farmers, processors and exporters and the country.
P16
News in brief
Beeby appointed
Nick Beeby has been appointed chief executive of the New Zealand Meat Board.
Beeby has been acting chief executive since July 2024, replacing NZMB chief executive Sam McIvor.
He is currently chair of New Zealand Farm Assurance Incorporated, which oversees the New Zealand Farm Assurance Programme.
Tb infection
The number of herds infected with bovine Tb in the Taupō region has risen from four to five, with another herd under investigation.
This confirms that infected possums coming into contact with cattle are the pathway for the disease, said OSPRI. Infected herds have been under movement restriction to limit the spread of disease, and further testing has been undertaken to understand the level of infection.
Consultation opens
Public consultation on the rewrite of the Arms Act 1983 has opened.
Submissions received on the Ministry of Justice discussion document will feed into the policy development process.
Following policy development, the government will introduce a Bill to Parliament and the public will have a further opportunity to make submissions on the proposed changes through the select committee process.
Jones dies
Respected dairy industry leader Colin Jones, ONZM, has died. Jones was a co-founder and executive director of Global Dairy Network, a trading partner and founding shareholder of Taupō low-carbon dairy company Miraka. He died on January 1.
The Government is consulting the public on rewriting the Arms Act 1983 The Act is the main law that governs the use of firearms in New Zealand
The Ministry of Justice invites everyone to have their say We want to hear your thoughts on what works, what doesn’t, and what needs to change
Public consultation is open until 28 February 2025.
Find out more and make a submission at www. justice.govt.nz/firearms
‘Council rules raise farm fire risks’
Richard Rennie NEWS Fire
COUNCIL and central government regulations on land use are adding fuel to New Zealand’s fire risk as farmers are having to destock, and the country’s climate continues to warm.
Rotorua veterinarian and farm environment consultant Dr Alison Dewes said farmers in her catchment are increasingly dealing with elevated fire risk due to a district plan focused on reducing stock numbers and increasing tree planting.
Dewes, who farmed in Victoria, Australia, for 15 years and is very familiar with fire risks, said there is a noticeable lack of foresight in New Zealand. She said council “infatuation” with reducing nitrate levels has forced farmers to lower stocking rates in her Bay of Plenty Regional Council area.
“I’ve planted 35,000 natives and sold nearly a tonne of N to them, and council still want to buy the last 80kg (of N) and prevent me from ever having animals to clear trash and weeds under my trees with occasional light grazing.
“There is an overzealous interpretation of Plan Change 10 with a nitrate reduction focus, and a lack of a pragmatic approach to the whole system’s risk created by this singular N focus.”
BoP Regional Council land management leader Scott Kusabs said the council is aware some landowners in the Rotorua Lakes catchment are concerned about potential fire risk from unmanaged
vegetation, sometimes stemming from stock restrictions.
“For landowners particularly concerned about this risk, we would encourage them to consider retiring some of their land and plant some areas in forestry or natives which do not present the same fire risk as dry summer grass matter.
“Toi Moana offers funding to support these initiatives.”
He said the council is guided by the Resource Management Act aiming to manage environmental impact, not fire risk, and advised farmers to contact Fire and Emergency NZ for specific advice on managing that risk.
There is ... a lack of a pragmatic approach to the whole system’s risk.
Dr Alison Dewes Rotorua Landowner
Dewes’ frustration was shared by farmers the length of the country.
Simon Williamson of Glenbrook Station south of Twizel said the Department of Conservation’s administration of land now extends to over 70% of Mackenzie Country.
This coincides with tenure review and has significantly reduced the ability to run animals that would play a part in managing fire risk.
“Not grazing means the fire risk is huge. You just need to look at the Lake Ōhau fire. It was on ground that had been closed up, had not been grazed for years.”
PRICES: AgriHQ senior analyst Mel Croad says lamb schedule prices have been up around $8/kg since the middle of November, when new season lambs started flowing into the processing plants.
Continued from page 1
today’s $12/kg for 95CL beef and last year’s $8.50/kg.
Crossbred wool has also started 2025 strongly, up 24c in the first auction of the year when compared with December.
“An absolute shortage of wool available due to wet conditions has really impacted the opening of the first sale of this year, ending with a good lift in the North Island market indicator,”
His contact with overseas farmers and conservationists has shown him that NZ is now out on a limb in its efforts to “lock up” country from farming and grazing animals.
“Real success involves partnering with landowners. This is what has been learnt in other parts of the world including the likes of Canada and Mexico.”
With greater fire risk has also come greater pest incursion into land DoC now manages, with neighbouring farmers having to deal with wild pigs, deer and goats.
In the Hurunui district, dryland farmer Ben Ensor shares Williamson’s concern. He identified three issues.
“You have pastoral high-country land taken out of livestock, more wilding pines, and land no longer grazed around towns and cities, as was the case in the Port Hills fires.”
He put the resulting fire risks down to siloed thinking among policy makers who fail to join the dots, resulting in unintended consequences.
“My personal belief is the appropriate grazing of some areas would be a good mitigation method, and people in NZ will also have to come to terms with a higher fire risk.”
Williamson took some heart from recent government moves to reconsider bans on livestock grazing in previously locked up, protected areas.
“We are talking to Minister [for the Environment and Associate Agriculture Minister Andrew] Hoggard and it is being worked through.
“DoC have to decide what land could be grazed and what land would never be grazed, such as around Mount Cook.”
A rental payment made to DoC for selected grazing using cattle at certain times is a workable option, he said.
Caution about dry conditions
Richard Rennie NEWS Weather
DESPITE enjoying a “greener” summer, New Zealand is likely to experience significantly drier conditions before the season is over, a fire expert warns.
Paul Shaw, an ex-farmer from Te Akau, is a Fire and Emergency New Zealand (FENZ) national wildfire specialist. He has been at the sharp end of major rural fire outbreaks both here and internationally over his career.
“So far it has been quite a green summer, but our main concern has been the wind.
File
PGG Wrightson procurement manager Steve Fussell said.
“It was pleasing to see some strong bidding on lambs wool that has been slow to receive any recognition this season.”
Good style crossbred fleece is now over $4/kg clean and all other styles are $3.90 and above.
The South Island strong wool indicator ended 2024 at $3.80, some 40c ahead of December 2023 and $1 more than December 2022.
“Early on Canterbury really started to dry out with that Arthur’s Pass fire early on, but then it turned cold and wet.”
But he believes Northland is not far from being declared to be in a prohibited fire season, along with central and southern Waikato, where the drying effect of constant southwesterly winds has been significant in recent weeks.
“And I would not be surprised if we ended up with a prohibited season on Coromandel in a week or so.”
He lives only kilometers from where crews and helicopters are
busy dealing with a scrub fire in difficult country on Coromandel’s Kūaotunu Peninsula.
Shaw also oversees NZ’s hazard risk and removal system for fire management.
It enables neighbours to report potential fire risks they see, with the majority being long-standing grass areas.
His cautions come as wildfire and ecology lecturer Dr Nicola Day said it is time to prepare for weather conditions similar to what Australia experiences, particularly in regions like the east coast and Otago.
She told RadioNZ dry areas are getting drier and wet are getting wetter. Otago, with its tussock country, is particularly vulnerable.
Shaw’s career has included fighting fires in areas of Australia and United States and he is one of only a few people in NZ capable of directing aerial water bombing for fire outbreaks.
He has had one eye on the major outbreaks in California but has not yet had a call for NZ crews to attend.
“I think, though, that if they asked for help, we would go.”
Exporters call for action against Canada
Nigel Stirling MARKETS
Dairy
DAIRY exporters have joined United States and Australian rivals to pressure their governments to take on Canadian milk subsidies, which they say pose a growing threat to global dairy markets.
In a January 8 letter to their respective trade ministers the Dairy Companies Association of NZ (DCANZ), the US’s Dairy Export Council and National Milk Producers Federation, and the Australian Dairy Industry Council, called for the use of “all available tools” to challenge Canadian milk pricing policies.
We call upon our governments to actively pursue these issues using all available tools.
The exporters have long argued these policies have led to Canadian rivals dumping non-fat milk solids on international markets at prices below the cost of production.
Now they warn even more subsidised dairy products could be unleashed on global markets unless the policies can be overturned.
In September the Canadian government earmarked $400 million to invest in
Increase profits from trees
the country’s dairy plants over the next decade.
“If Canada is allowed to get away with its current practices, new processing capacity will be built and expand the harm being caused to legitimate, commercially-priced dairy production and exporting interests in each of our regions,” the letter reads.
“We call upon our governments to actively pursue these issues using all available tools.”
DCANZ has previously estimated that up to a billion dollars of high-value exports to the US could be at risk unless the Canadian policies are overturned.
Chief executive Kimberly Crewther said options available include legal action at the World Trade Organisation, while the US also could also force changes through an upcoming review of the US-MexicoCanada Free Trade Agreement.
“Collective and coordinated action is requested to address the mechanisms being used by Canada to enable these exports to be dumped on world markets,” she said.
The joint letter is the latest attempt by DCANZ to ramp up pressure on the New Zealand government to take on Canada’s dairy subsidies.
In August it wrote to Trade Minister Todd McClay calling for a case to be taken “urgently” to the WTO.
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• Choose from any of five forestry species and three management regimes
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Treefarmer was developed with Forest Growers‘ Levy Funds. Access is from Forest Growers Research website at:
Thais
AVOIDED: DCANZ
CEO Kimberly Crewther says NZ dairy processors are concerned over Thai moves changing the conditions on a free trade deal signed 20 years ago and due to be in full effect by January 1 this year.
fail to meet dairy deal demands
Richard Rennie MARKETS Dairy
DIPLOMATS and trade officials are doubling down behind the scenes with their Thai counterparts as that country backs out of free trade commitments made 20 years ago.
The Closer Economic Partnership (CEP) signed between NZ and Thailand in 2005 required all tariffs to be completely lifted by January 1 2025 on milk and cream, flavoured milk and skim milk powder. The CEP out-of-quota tariff on fluid milk was 37%.
However, with January 1 passing, Dairy Companies Association of NZ (DCANZ) CEO Kimberly Crewther has confirmed to Farmers Weekly that the Thai Milk Board has limited the volumes approved for import under the trade agreement.
“We are concerned at this move. It disregards the commitments Thailand has entered into and creates additional uncertainty and complexity in the trade,” she said.
The Thai market accounts for about NZ$800 million of dairy exports and Thailand itself is the single largest dairy exporter among ASEAN countries. This is largely driven by importing NZ dairy milk powder products and then re-exporting to neighbouring Asian nations.
The departure from the agreement has NZ dairy exporters now facing quantitative limitations on their imports, dictated by the Thai Milk Board and representing another version of a trade barrier.
A spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) confirmed MFAT’s understanding is that the Thai Milk Board has decided to limit the volume of skim milk powder imports, including from NZ.
“We are concerned as such a decision would have significant commercial impacts. MFAT is actively seeking reassurances from the Thai government it will not impose restrictions on NZ imports that are inconsistent with Thailand’s obligations under the NZ-Thailand Closer Economic Partnership which came into full effect on January 1 2025.”
The two countries have enjoyed a longstanding dairy trade relationship extending back over half a century. The Thai market represents a valuable and growing opportunity for dairy ingredients.
All NZ’s main dairy companies have a foothold in Thailand.
Fonterra has been doubling down on its supply chain efficiencies and logistics in the market with an eye on building the number of client products featuring its ingredients, particularly those sold through convenience stores there.
Thailand is now Fonterra’s largest ingredients market in southeast Asia.
Alert on German FMD outbreak
THE first confirmed outbreak of foot and mouth disease in Germany in 40 years has made Biosecurity NZ staff extra vigilant over the busy summer holiday period.
German authorities confirmed the outbreak on January 10 in a herd of water buffalo on the outskirts of Berlin.
Biosecurity Minister Andrew Hoggard said the European Union’s protocols to manage foot and mouth disease (FMD) are in line with international standards and equivalent to New Zealand’s.
“German authorities have notified the World Organisation for Animal Health and have implemented appropriate measures to manage the risks, including establishing a restricted zone for animals and animal products as well as the range of usual protection measures following an FMD outbreak, including biosecurity measures, movement controls, the destruction of
affected animals and products, disinfection and surveillance.”
Biosecurity NZ’s deputy director-general, Stuart Anderson, said airport staff have been briefed and passengers from Germany will be assessed based on potential risk.
“Questioning of passengers will target FMD risk and particular focus will be on those who have visited farms and who have footwear and equipment that has been used outdoors.
“In addition, with regards to passengers coming into New Zealand, no risk products (fresh meat, cured meat) will be eligible to be brought into New Zealand with passengers or through mail/parcel freight.”
According to Tourism NZ, 64,700 German visitors came to New Zealand in 2023 with 46,500 (72%) being holiday visits.
As well as the measures put in place by the EU and World Organisation for Animal Health, as an additional precautionary measure NZ has placed a hold on any German animal product certified for export from December 12 onwards.
NZ’s first Land Rover takes charity drive
Gerhard Uys PEOPLE Community
THE first Land Rover imported into New Zealand, which arrived here in 1948, will set off on a historic ride between Dunedin and Auckland at the end of the month.
Heart researcher Julian Paton from Manaaki Manawa – the Centre for Heart Research at the University of Auckland, who calls himself the current custodian of the Land Rover, said the vehicle has been sitting under cover in a garage in Taihape for nearly 30 years.
The Land Rover is known affectionately as “20” because it
is the 20th Land Rover ever made, Paton said.
He has been collecting Land Rovers since he was a teenager and said normally a 77-year-old Land Rover would need a lot of welding, or even a new chassis, but 20’s chassis looks like it has just been built.
“All the engine components, the engine itself, gearbox, axles, differentials, are all original. They’ve all been date-stamped 1948.”
Paton bought 20 from a Dunedin collector, Peter Marr, last year.
Marr had a number of offers, but was looking for an owner who was a Land Rover fanatic and wanted to make sure 20 remained in New Zealand.
When Marr heard Paton wanted
to drive 20 up to Auckland, he was so impressed he gave him a discount on the price.
Paton and Marr agree that 20 will be able to make the trip up to Auckland.
“Because it’s been off the road for so long, it had to go through vehicle compliance, which is the WOF from hell. They have a really detailed look at it. It sailed through, which is amazing for the fact that it’s 77 years old and is a great credit to Peter for all his meticulous work,” Paton said.
For the trip Paton will not just be driving on roads, but will cross Dansey’s Pass and the Molesworth range, and go off road between Palmerston North and Napier.
Paton is in possession of the original registration document and the Rover Company’s ledger showing dates of production/ chassis number and destination of export.
“20 was sent across by the Rover Company in the UK to Wellington Motor Company Ltd as a demonstrator car.
“It was demonstrated around the country, including driving up Parliament’s steps, and performed several off-road feats to impress local farmers.”
Paton said he is keen to connect with the farming community as the Land Rover was a capable general utility vehicle working the ground, transporting across fields and roads at four times the speed of a tractor, and as a stationary power plant to drive threshing machines, saw mills and welders via its power take-off.
The ride between Dunedin and Auckland is not just a joy ride, Paton said.
He is a heart researcher and said the planned expedition is to raise funding for heart research at the University of Auckland. The campaign, called Drive4Hearts, has a target of $300,000.
Heart disease is the biggest killer in New Zealand, particularly for Māori and Pacific peoples, Paton said.
JOURNEY:
the
“We are one of only very few developed countries that have rheumatic heart disease that is killing our children.
“This is a national embarrassment.”
Funds will help a cardiothoracic surgeon, engineers, bio engineers, tissue engineers and physiologists, such as himself, develop a heart valve that can grow as a child grows and that does not need to be replaced.
A growing valve will mean children can avoid multiple openheart surgeries to replace valves as they grow up. Many do not survive such operations.
MORE:
Anyone interested in the journey and donations can visit https://www. justgiving.com/page/drive4hearts
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China’s beef with imports blindsides NZ
Nigel Stirling MARKETS Sheep and beef
MEAT company bosses are scratching their heads after New Zealand was included in an investigation by China linking the falling profitability of its beef farms to increased imports.
On December 27 China’s Commerce Ministry announced an investigation into beef imports from Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Australia, the United States and NZ.
Notifying the World Trade Organisation, it said it would determine whether imports had caused or were threatening to cause “serious injury” to the Chinese beef industry, and if import restrictions should be considered.
The probe follows complaints by the China Animal Agriculture Association and nine provincial animal agricultural associations.
The associations say beef imports surged 106% between 2019 and 2024, crashing profit margins for Chinese beef farmers from 20% to -12%.
Imports increased from 20% of the Chinese market to 31% over the same period.
“If appropriate measures are
not taken in time, the amount of beef imports may increase further [and] production, operation and financial conditions of domestic industries may be further impacted,” they said.
Tariffs, or quantitative restrictions on imports, could be considered if the investigation establishes a link between imports and falling domestic beef prices, according to the Ministry of Commerce’s website.
If appropriate measures are not taken in time ... domestic industries may be further impacted.
Statement China Animal Agriculture Association
Under a 2008 free trade agreement with China, NZ beef exporters face neither tariffs or quota restrictions in the Chinese market.
Although in decline, China remains NZ’s second largest beef market after the US, taking $838 million of NZ beef in the 10 months to October.
Exporters admitted to being blindsided by the investigation.
Just last week Alliance Group confirmed its Mataura and
Levin plants had been approved to process chilled beef for the Chinese market.
Hamilton-based Greenlea Premier Meats chief executive Tony Egan said the NZ industry has worked closely with its Chinese counterparts in recent years with numerous delegations travelling to the country as it prepared to open up its market to more imports.
He was surprised those parties now wanted trade curtailed.
“It has become a very good and interesting market for us as a country and we do it well because we work hard on it, whether it is meeting the requirements of their particular customers from halal right through to chilled or frozen and wet markets through to restaurants.”
Egan worried it would be difficult for any investigation to disentangle the impact imports are having from other factors weighing on domestic prices such as the still-weak Chinese economy.
Low milk prices have also meant that increased supply of domestic dairy beef onto the Chinese market had further depressed prices.
ANZCO’s general manager of sales, Rick Walker, was surprised at NZ’s inclusion in the probe given it makes up only 7% of China’s beef imports.
Furthermore NZ’s share is falling
DoC not set on pines for Molesworth
Richard Rennie NEWS Forestry
THE Department of Conservation says no decision has been made on whether pine trees will be planted on Molesworth Station under the government’s proposed public-private partnership scheme to place trees on low-value Crown land. The public-private partnership proposal has been raised as an option to lift the plantings of exotic and native trees in New Zealand to improve biodiversity and help meet the country’s obligations under the Paris Accord. Initial mapped areas from the Ministry for Primary Industries indicate Molesworth, which is owned by the DoC, would be a key area for tree planting, along
WILD: Wilding pines have been a key focus of pest control on the 180,000ha Molesworth property in the past four years.
Photo: Wikimedia Commons
with the Mackenzie Basin region.
This has drawn the ire of environmentalists and farmers alike.
Federated Farmers high country chair Ian Anderson described the move as a hard pill for farmers to swallow when they have had to surrender land under high country tenure review on grounds of environmental value and protection.
Molesworth has been the focus of intensive wilding pine removal over the past five years, while the trees spread over 1.8 million hectares of South Island high country are advancing at a rate of 5% a year.
Siobhan Quayle, the DoC’s director for regulatory systems performance, told Farmers Weekly the agency has worked with other government departments to identify indicative areas
of Crown-owned land that could be explored for planting opportunities.
“No decisions have been made about land that might be offered to potential partners, or the conditions under which offers might be made,” she said.
“The land shown in the map is intended to indicate where land may potentially be available to inform the request for information process currently underway.
“Decisions by the government on which species will be planted and any conditions around planting will depend on further advice on the suitability of the land, demand from potential partners and how risks could be managed through conditions set for planting.”
Feedback on the proposal closes with MPI on February 28.
as exporters opte for higherreturning markets elsewhere.
By comparison, cheaper Brazilian beef, which makes up over 40% of imports, is gradually improving its share of the increasingly costconscious Chinese market.
Walker said exporters had presumed Chinese authorities were happy for imports to continue to grow given the increase in plants qualifying
for export licences here and internationally over the past 12 months.
“We have all been working on the assumption that they are seeing the same thing that we are seeing – that America is going to soak up every piece of beef possible over the next 24 months and that they would be grateful for every piece they can get their hands on.”
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Dairy drives share market performances
LISTED primary sector companies in New Zealand begin 2025 with some strong following winds in higher commodity prices, lower interest rates and inflation back under control.
The gradual recovery of demand from China for our meat, dairy, fruit, fish and wool will be offset by a lower NZ dollar and the uncertainties to follow new protectionist policies in President Donald Trump’s United States.
The S&P/NZX Primary Sector Equity Index opened 2025 at 10,900, having gained close to 700 points over the course of 2024, a gain of about 6%.
The Top 50 Index for the NZ share market was up 11%, the best performance of that market since 2020.
The primary sector index tracks the market performance of 17 listed companies, ranging from the largest such as Fonterra and a2 Milk Company, to the smallest, like Greenfern Industries and Marlborough Wine Estates.
Greenfern is a medicinal cannabis producer with market capitalisation of under $3 million and a share price around 2c.
By contrast, a2 Milk has a market capitalisation of $4.5 billion and a share price above $6, the highest
of all companies in the primary sector index.
Fonterra Co-operative Group (FCG) will jump to first place by market size early this year when it migrates from a private market to the NZX Main Board, bringing its $6.75bn capitalisation on a current share price of $4.20.
The Fonterra supply shares (FCG) rose 65% in 2024 and the Shareholders’ Fund units (FSF) rose 50% and currently are at $5.10.
The yield performances of FSF and FCG were the best by far among primary sector companies in 2024.
They had gross dividend yields of 10.5% and 13% respectively, plus their price increases.
Total shareholder returns during 2023 and 2024 have been very handsome and may repeat with the possible sale of the consumer brands and businesses.
Fonterra’s announcement in December of a 50c rise in the farmgate milk price forecast midpoint to a record $10/kg milksolids, along with the firm earnings guidance of 40-60c a share, almost guarantees another good share market performance for the dairy giant in 2025.
Earnings of 50c a share would produce another 10% gross yield, or better, which market analysts say will be among the best on the NZ share market.
Market leader a2 Milk has not paid a dividend in its 25-year
history, despite $1.675bn revenue and 23c a share earnings in FY2024.
But it announced an inaugural dividend policy in late November targeting a payout ratio range between 60% and 80% of net profit after tax.
An interim dividend is expected with the half-year FY2025 results in February.
Genetics company LIC also had a good year, with earnings per share of 55c, half of that distributed by dividends, and a share price that returned to where it started in January, slightly under $1.
The rising tide of dairy prices may also help the rescue of Synlait Milk, where a $3 fall in share price over the past two years has bottomed out at 40c.
Synlait has never paid a dividend and it is not likely to start in 2025.
A search is underway for a new chief executive after Grant Watson’s departure in October.
Among the better performers in 2024 was Delegat Group, with a gross dividend yield of 5.8%, somewhat soured by a share price fall of 30%.
It now trades around $4.80, having touched $7 last April.
Fellow wine industry companies Foley Wines and Marlborough Wine Estates made a small profit and a loss respectively and Marlborough has now delisted to save costs.
A turbulent 2024 with majority shareholder Agria of Singapore took a toll on PGG Wrightson’s share price, cut in half to around $1.60 presently.
Trading results were down and no dividend was paid but directors are cautiously optimistic for recovery in 2025 as farmers
and orchardists loosen the purse strings.
Horticultural companies Scales Corporation, Seeka and T&G Global performed much better in 2024 compared with 2023 and Cyclone Gabrielle’s destruction. Scales made a net profit in the range $30m to $35m, with a dividend yield of 4% and a 17% lift in share prices during the year. Seeka’s share price rose 23% and its yield was also 4%.
A number of poor results for T&G Global has prompted majority shareholder BayWa AG (74%) to investigate options for the sale of major holdings outside of Germany.
Two listed fishing companies provided a contrast in performance, with Sanford maintaining its share price and yielding 3% while NZ King Salmon lost 10% on share price and did not pay a dividend.
‘Gold Rush’ report picks up honey’s sour notes
Richard Rennie NEWS Apiculture
FAILED efforts to protect the name “Mānuka”, no single unified industry body, and a lack of any industry levy funds for investment are the legacy of errors leaving New Zealand’s honey industry with an ongoing crisis.
Coriolis Research identified these factors in its report After the Gold Rush, a situation review of the NZ honey industry placing the sector at a pivotal point in its history.
Completed in November last year, the report is the first on the sector that the food research company has conducted since 2012. The first report identified honey as an emerging food export sector.
The latest report recounts the “boom-bust” nature of the Mānuka honey sector in the past decade. NZ honey production, having peaked at almost 10,000 tonnes in 2020, hit a massive slump, dropping 56% between then and 2023.
At its peak the industry had almost 1 million hives nationally,
but appears to now be stabilising at about 350,000-500,000 hives.
Meantime the reported oversupply of honey held in inventory stocks nationally is taking considerable time to work through.
Despite the gloomy issues, report authors Tim Morris and Virginia
Wilkinson said the sector can continue to maintain its price premium over time, and this will lead it into a more sustainable growth pattern for years to come. They see future success leveraging off people’s desire for sweet products, and consumption continuing to grow from a high
value base where honey comprises only 1% of global sweetener by volume, but 9% by value.
Mānuka honey has played a key part in NZ successfully selling relatively small quantities of honey at high prices.
Significant upside for greater consumption lies in multiple regions, including parts of Asia and Africa.
NZ remains the world’s second largest honey exporter after China, with exports here valued at $266 million.
An industry strategy paper released last year identifies doubling honey exports by 2030 as a key goal.
But it is coming in an environment where the wholesale “blue barrel” value of lower-grade Mānuka honey is now within the price range of normal clover honey, pointing to an end to the previous peak prices.
With clover honey forming the floor price currently at $5/kg, most operators are running a loss and require nearer $7/kg to break even.
The report recommends taking a leaf out of the success of other regional foods in protecting their
provenance, including France’s Champagne and Cognac, and Italy’s Parmigiano-Reggiano cheese.
Apiculture CEO Karin Kos said the Coriolis report confirms much that is already known, and being worked on, in the sector.
“All the challenges it outlines are understood and why we put together an industry strategy last year.
“The sector has been hit by what is largely a supply issue that is starting to now shake out. Last year was not a great harvest, and this year may by interrupted by cooler weather, so supply will continue to tighten.”
She said lessons learnt from the court case defences of the term “Mānuka honey” included knowing the sector needs to tell its distinctive story better to markets. Work by the Mānuka Charitable Trust is helping do that.
“We are also working to achieving a more unified organisation and looking at mandatory funding.
“We expect to have some significant announcements by the end of the first quarter of this year.”
From the Editor
our environment and gain the full value of our unique nation.
Māori agribusinesses like Ngamanawa hold more than $23 billion in assets, according to a 2018 report from the Reserve Bank. They contributed more than $17bn to New Zealand’s GDP that year.
Bryan Gibson Managing editor
IT MAY seem like a big step from running health clubs and resorts in southeast Asia to heading up a Māori incorporation in the Bay of Plenty, but Kellogg scholar Dave Nuku says that leap of faith has been worth it. He leads the Ngamanawa Incorporation, a diverse food and fibre operation that grows kiwifruit, strawberries, apples, production forests and livestock. He and his family have experienced the world both in terms of culture and the flow of money, but he reckons the values at the heart of Ngamanawa have value in any setting.
But the contribution Māori make to the food and fibre sector is far larger than just figures on a page.
Increasingly, our society is recognising the worth te ao Māori brings to our lives by unifying the key wellbeing metrics we work to improve – economic, social and environmental.
markets
navigating our way through the challenges we face makes sense?
Then there’s the way we sell ourselves to the world.
Our biggest brand, the All Blacks, has seen to it that New Zealand is synonymous with the haka and Māori culture.
Air New Zealand saw the value in it when it tried to trademark the phrase Kia ora.
Research shows that our export markets respond positively to our multicultural society and the indigenous world view that informs the way we do things.
But if they were to look closer, they’d see we don’t always practise what we preach.
Farmers Weekly is published by GlobalHQ, PO Box 529, Feilding 4740. New Zealand
Phone: 0800 85 25 80 Website: www.farmersweekly.co.nz
But we need to acknowledge and nurture this understanding further.
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Bryan Gibson 06 323 1519
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EDITORIAL
Carmelita Mentor-Fredericks editorial@globalhq.co.nz
Too often our regulations and strategies are siloed and sometimes gains made in one space have a negative impact elsewhere.
Neal Wallace 03 474 9240 neal.wallace@globalhq.co.nz
Colin Williscroft 027 298 6127 colin.williscroft@globalhq.co.nz
Annette Scott 021 908 400 annette.scott@globalhq.co.nz
It’s a set of values we need to fully embrace if we want to nurture
Hugh Stringleman 09 432 8594 hugh.stringleman@globalhq.co.nz
We pepper the terms kaitiakitanga and manaakitanga throughout our corporate documents and marketing materials, while some of us work to eradicate Māori from our everyday lives.
Andy Whitson 027 626 2269
New Media & Business Development Lead andy.whitson@globalhq.co.nz
Steve McLaren 027 205 1456
Just this week Richard Rennie reports on a farmer’s concern that restrictions on stocking rates to reduce nitrogen losses are making her property a fire risk.
Gerald Piddock 027 486 8346 gerald.piddock@globalhq.co.nz
Letters of the week
Build health of our living soil
Jayden Blomfield Coromandel
THE ongoing push for more research and development and greater inputs into pasture grazing systems is often hailed as the solution to increasing productivity. However, this approach overlooks a critical truth: our soil, the foundation of agriculture, is being degraded at an alarming rate due to the very inputs and practices promoted by this paradigm.
Soil is not just a medium for growing grass; it is a living ecosystem teeming with biology that drives plant health, water retention and long-term productivity. Unfortunately, the prevailing model of agriculture treats soil as inert, focusing on extracting maximum yields through synthetic fertilisers, pesticides and other inputs that harm soil biology and reduce its capacity to regenerate.
A more sustainable and effective solution lies in holistic management practices that prioritise soil health. Building organic matter through practices like rotational grazing and
cover cropping and reducing harmful chemical inputs improves soil structure, increases water-holding capacity, and enhances biodiversity. These methods not only ensure the long-term viability of agriculture but also reduce the need for costly inputs, making farming more resilient and profitable.
The problem with pouring more money into R&D focused on input-driven productivity is that it often feeds into the interests of industries that profit from selling those inputs, perpetuating the cycle of soil degradation. Instead, we should be directing resources toward research and education on regenerative agriculture –an approach that works with nature, not against it.
If we continue treating soil as a disposable resource, we risk undermining the very foundation of agriculture. A shift in mindset is urgently needed.
Let’s invest in practices that rebuild soil health, protect ecosystems and secure the future of farming for generations to come.
Wrap on the knuckles
Dave Stanton Geraldine
IT IS hard to advocate that we as farmers and lifestyle block holders really care for our environment when we have advertisements like this one up the sides of our roads and highways.
ISSN 2463-6002 (Print) ISSN 2463-6010 (Online)
Debbie Brown 06 323 0765
We’re beginning to realise that quarterly reporting and instant returns on investment don’t bring us long-term wellbeing.
Auckland/Northland Partnership Manager steve.mclaren@globalhq.co.nz
Jody Anderson 027 474 6094
Waikato/Bay of Plenty Partnership Manager jody.anderson@globalhq.co.nz
Noticeboard/Word Only/Primary Pathways classifieds@globalhq.co.nz
Grant Marshall 027 887 5568
Real Estate Partnership Manager realestate@globalhq.co.nz
We fight against wage growth instead of giving people purpose and stability in their work.
Andrea Mansfield 027 446 6002
Salesforce director andrea.mansfield@globalhq.co.nz
PRODUCTION
Donna Hirst 027 474 6095
Surely a more holistic way of
Richard Rennie 07 552 6176 richard.rennie@globalhq.co.nz
Nigel Stirling 021 136 5570 nigel.g.stirling@gmail.com
PUBLISHER
Dean Williamson 027 323 9407
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Lower North Island/international Partnership Manager donna.hirst@globalhq.co.nz
I reckon Dave’s got the right idea, and we need more leaders like him in farming.
Grant Marshall 027 887 5568
South Island and AgriHQ Partnership Manager grant.marshall@globalhq.co.nz
Javier Roca 06 323 0761
Livestock Partnership Manager 027 602 4925 livestock@globalhq.co.nz
Let’s all make a concerted effort to pick up litter, plastics and especially agricultural rubbish lining our rural road boundaries and highways. All we need is more people picking it up than are dropping it.
Let’s not just say we care for the environment – let’s all do it!
WINS
Send your letter to the Editor at Farmers Weekly P.0. Box 529, Feilding or email us at farmers.weekly@agrihq.co.nz
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Whakatū a lesson in technology and labour
Eating the elephant
eating.the.elephant.nz@gmail.com
IN 1915, one of the most significant businesses ever to exist in Hawke’s Bay opened its doors – the Whakatū plant of the Hawke’s Bay Farmers Meat Company.
Stepping into the plant’s killing room at this time in history would have been a unique experience. It would have been hot and noisy, and the smell overpowering.
In a long line, working next to their hooks and catching pens, would have been the solo butchers. Dressed in singlets stained with sweat and blood, the butchers
would catch their sheep out of a catching pen before expertly killing and dressing it. To keep track of their tally, the tongues would be removed and thrown into a bucket to be counted at the end of the day.
Capable of processing up to a 100 sheep each per day, these men were the engine room of the works. They were physically fit and highly skilled. Without them the business would have ground to a halt – a fact that they, and the union they belonged to, knew well.
The story of Whakatū, captured in exceptional detail in Ewan McGregor’s new book Whakatū –the farmers’ works, is not just the story of a meatworks. It is the story of New Zealand’s sheep and beef industry from its first tentative steps in 1849, to its boom years in the 1950s, through to its still significant, yet contracted position of today. It’s a fascinating read for many reasons.
In telling Whakatū’s history of the mechanisation and automation of human labour, the book offers a glimpse into the present and future of rural New Zealand as a whole.
In 1913, Henry Ford started using moving assembly belts in the manufacture of his Model T. The effect was dramatic and it wasn’t long before the meat processing industry thought it might be a good idea too.
Ironically, it was a strike by the slaughtermen in the 1932/1933
season that finally prompted the new equipment to be installed. It didn’t end the power of the unions, but it did increase output and reduce the work’s reliance on a single group of workers. It was also the first step in the replacement of people by machines.
Like it did at Whakatū, the ongoing adoption of machinery and technology has transformed NZ’s farming landscape. Road and rail construction made it possible to farm in more remote areas, and it wasn’t long before tractors and motorbikes started replacing shepherds on farms. Less labour was required to do the same amount of work and the impact on rural communities was marked.
Today the trend is continuing. A collar on a cow can now tell you how healthy she is, when she’s in heat, and help you shift her without a dog or person in sight. A robot can milk the cow for you and ensure the right amount of supplement is put in front of her as it happens.
Out in the paddocks, remote sensors can provide real-time information on what’s happening on your farm, and soon a drone will be able to apply chemical or fertiliser to exactly where it’s needed without risk to person or the environment.
Admittedly not all of this technology is perfect or cost effective, but it’s better every day and its progression is relentless. In the United States, John Deere
How fully will technology take over our lives and our farms?
is currently putting the finishing touches to its first autonomous tractor, soon to be introduced to the market. It’s the company’s next step towards fully automated soy and corn production.
The question for us farmers is how fully will technology take over our lives and our farms?
Will our paddocks be empty of workers, having been replaced by a manager in a faraway office overseeing an array of sensors and automated machinery? Or will the adaption of technology be more nuanced? Will we see the continued existence of a small group of technically competent
agricultural managers, who remain outside the ability of technology to replicate, along with a small group of practical labourers who do the random physical tasks that it is not cost effective to build a machine to replicate?
Regardless, we will need to be mindful of the fate of the solo butchers. Ongoing automation and technology is an inevitable reality, whether we like it or not. Our best bet is to ride the wave of opportunity that it brings with it. Otherwise it will sink us.
I’ve got a mate who is a dairy farmer in Michigan. His shed is full of robots, yet it seems there’s no free lunch. Not long ago his Lely Juno Feed Pusher decided to do the runner and disappeared down the driveway, before being rounded up just short of the motorway. It’s now back in the shed after a good talking to.
Scrum needs to be screwed exporters’ way
China worries, and there is a real risk New Zealand receives a credit downgrade in 2025.
THE NZD/USD is sub 60 cents and on track for a possible nudge at 0.55. Back in 2023 and early 2024, the consensus was for a slow appreciation. We’ve seen the reverse.
Currency cycles are funny things. Currencies tend to overshoot and undershoot by more than you expect.
New Zealand’s currency credentials are not strong when you weigh up growth, productivity, a large current account deficit and
The USD/CNY has broken 7.3 with the “managed peg” being challenged, symptomatic of China’s problems – and NZ relies on China. Recall the pressure on the NZD in 1984 as decades of poor policy and economic management came to bear. Pressure on the USD/ CNY has similarities.
A key side of the equation is the United States dollar. Uncertainty surrounding US foreign and trade policy has led to a depreciation in some currencies more sensitive to global trade and pushed the USD higher.
US inflation is also proving to be persistent, and markets continue to pare back expectations the US Federal Reserve will lower interest rates. The yield on a US 10-year bond has gone from 3.7% in September 2024 to 4.68% at the time of writing. That entices capital seeking yield.
Some of that also reflects rising risk premiums associated with government debt levels. US government debt levels are a concern, but not immediately pressing when they are seeing strong growth.
Key drivers, though, are inflation and growth. The annual core
consumer price inflation rate in the US, which excludes items such as food and energy, came in at a three-month high of 3.3% in November 2024, unchanged from October and September. Prices for services excluding energy services, which are closely monitored by the Federal Reserve as a gauge of underlying inflation, slowed to 4.6% in November from 4.8% in
October, but that level is still far too elevated.
The annual inflation rate in the US rose for a second month in a row to 2.7% in November 2024 from 2.6% in October. We await the December read which we will get in mid-January.
Inflation, according to the Fed’s preferred measure, the private consumption deflator, is well down from its mid-2022 peak of around 7%, coming in at 2.4% in November. That is still above the Fed’s 2% goal, and in December policymakers projected slower progress toward the target than they had earlier anticipated.
US services sector activity accelerated in December with a measure tracking input prices rising to a near two-year high. The US labour market is not rolling over either with unemployment 4.2%. New Zealand’s is set to rise above 5%.
The Federal Reserve’s 100 basis points of interest rate cuts since September have been met with a counterbalancing 100-basis-point rise in the 10-year Treasury yield. That move has partially flowed into other bond markets, including NZ where the yield on a 10-year bond has risen around 50 basis points since September 2024. Where does this leave us? I’ve
noted in recent currency focused articles that NZ needs a sustained period of currency weakness to help rebalance the economy. That view has not changed. There has been an alarming drop of exports as a share of gross domestic product. The scrum needs to be screwed in favour of exporters and the currency is a relative price variable helping with that process. Strength in the US economy and the persistence of inflation is simply adding some icing on the cake for exporters with the move below 0.60. The US Federal Reserve has been very proactive cutting interest rates. That strategy contained risks because the inflation battle is not yet won. Markets have pulled back from anticipating further reductions in US interest rate for good reasons. The US is not alone either. German inflation accelerated more than anticipated last month, when consumer prices rose 2.8% from a year ago in December, up from 2.4% in the previous month. German services inflation edged up to 4.1% from 4%.
Central banks need to remain alert.
Sector Focus Sheep & Beef
Maternal Bond means toddler’s on tour too
TAKING her threeyear-old daughter Ember across seven countries to shear her way around the world is a bit of an achievement in itself for King Country shearer Sacha Bond, who clipped her way to nine-hour ewe and lamb records in 2024.
Bond is keen to keep that momentum in 2025 and has set her sights on another record, involving her beloved Merino sheep.
“I learnt to shear in Australia and on Merino breeds. I have always had this passion to do a Merino world record and that is the line I will be looking down,” she said.
Bond is based in Wagga Wagga in New South Wales after moving there with her parents 15 years ago.
“My mum was a passionate wool handler, and I don’t think Dad liked shearing at all,” she said.
Bond had been raised in Woodville, a Manawatū town with a population of about 1700, until the age of 16. It was an environment she describes as close to “rough” as it gets.
“I grew up in a small town where there was a lot of alcohol and drugs among the adults and that is what we were raised around.
“It is why our parents moved us away to Australia, to sort of break that cycle and try and get us out of that and where that path could lead.”
When Bond picked up her first
handpiece, she sheared her first 100 within the week, despite it being unusual for a woman to take centre stage.
She said it would be special to grab a world record with the finer wool breed, but it will pose its own challenges.
“With crossbreds they have coarse wool which makes their skin tougher so you can use rounder gear and they shear a lot better.”
The Merino sheep is known to
It is the only job in the world where you have to take your own sweat towel to work.
Sacha Bond Shearing champion
have softer and looser skin because of the finer follicles, which makes shearing them more “methodical than physical”, she said.
“You can’t really just throw the blade in, you have to place the blade. You have to work on a different technique.
“I enjoy the thought process that goes into shearing Merinos.”
Physically she has kept her form since her February 2024 nine-hour tally of 458 ewes, directly after her December 2023 nine-hour lamb tally of 720.
At the time she weighed in at 58kg, down from 65kg when she was on a regular shearing work circuit. But she said there is as much of a physical element to regular shearing as there is to a world record day.
“It is the only job in the world where you have to take your own
RECORDS: Sacha Bond picked up her first handpiece as a teen in Australia and has racked up multiple world records since then.
BALANCE: Sacha Bond says training for world record attempts is challenging and time-consuming, but she tries to maintain the balance by ensuring that her daughter Ember is always by her side.
sweat towel to work – my whole closet is full of sweat towels.
“A world record is only for one day, and you have to apply every bit of knowledge and physical strength on that day.”
On the road in New Zealand or over the ditch in Australia, she and the gangs are shearing around 3000 sheep a day, seven days a week. Shed temperature can reach as much as 45deg C.
“It tests your mindset more because you have to keep going as the days off are few. It might break your body, but your mind works twice as hard to get through.”
Bond was built for toughness.
After a busy summer in Aotearoa, she flew to the United Kingdom and Europe to get among the shearers over there, with her daughter in tow.
“It is very tough at times; I don’t get much time for myself but I know it is all for a good cause. I am a person that adapts to challenges
Photos: Supplied
now; I find it is just another challenge and it will make her world better.
“There have been plenty of single mothers that have raised amazing children to go on and do other things.”
Shearing hasn’t just paid the bills for Bond, it’s also kept her going when times have been tough, as well as giving her purpose.
“If I wasn’t training for those records and had done so much personal development before troubled times I could have ended up in a completely different mindset and gone down a path of self-destruction.”
Now that she is in her early 30s, records will soon be a thing of the past, Bond said. But she wants to give back to the sport.
“I have taken a lot of knowledge from others and I would love to be able to pass some of that on and help someone else.”
Meat sector challenges grow more acute
Sector perspective
imperative of behaving in an environmentally conscious manner.
THE challenges facing the red meat sector have changed remarkably little in the 13 years since the launch of the industrycommissioned Deloitte Red Meat Sector Strategy – with one major exception.
Back in 2011 there was little mention of climate change as a factor threatening the sector’s survival. It was a known threat at the time, but it was probably the 2015 Paris Accord that pushed climate change to being seen as the world’s biggest threat, not just to agriculture, but to the survival of the planet as a whole.
Since then agriculture has become the main whipping boy in New Zealand to the point where it is almost vilified today by a vociferous minority as the main cause of the warming planet, regardless of the demand for food to ensure the survival of the global population.
New technology will not be available soon enough for the agricultural sector to achieve sufficient change to counter the absurd claim it is destroying the planet while simultaneously managing to feed the world.
True, technology is changing fast, whether to facilitate greater productivity from a smaller footprint or a reduction of emissions, and is increasingly being adopted by producers. Farmers, either from necessity or conviction, recognise the
But governments are compelled to respond to the political opinions of their voters as they attempt to navigate their way through electoral cycles, while reacting in panic to the effects of climate change.
Unfortunately voters, especially those affected by floods and cyclones, don’t stop to consider how they might be contributing to the problem with their lifestyle choices – multiple vehicles per family, excessive consumption, use of packaged goods, dietary choices, overseas travel, house size and location to name a few.
It is easier to blame farmers for the adverse climate impact of methane emissions and nitrate leaching than to change collective lifestyles.
The wholesale adoption of exotic tree planting, championed by the Labour/NZ First coalition in 2017, the introduction of the Emissions Trading Scheme to encourage carbon offsets without an obligation to cut pollution, and the dogma of the Climate Change Commission have all ensured a succession of nails being hammered into the coffin awaiting the death of the grassfed New Zealand sheep and beef sector.
The current government has at least recognised the insanity of destroying one of our most productive sectors in the pursuit of a misguided ideology, but the limit on planting pines on Land Use class 6, as well as 1-5, may be too little too late.
The Deloitte strategy highlighted three key areas of opportunity for the sector to embrace – coordinated in-market behaviour, efficient and aligned procurement, and sector best practice.
In more than a decade since the strategy’s release there has been progress towards each of these – on farm, by the processors and exporters, and by the sector’s representative bodies.
The value of exports has grown to date at a slightly lower rate than predicted, with the post-covid
market downturn hindering recent progress. Although markets are recovering, the challenge will be to continue growing as livestock volumes fall.
In-market behaviour has improved with the introduction of the Beef + Lamb NZ-initiated Taste Pure Nature programme, designed to create an umbrella brand for New Zealand’s grassfed red meat under which the exporters can promote their individual brands.
The meat processors have now taken over leadership of the programme, which is only operating in China at present, after successful trials on the United States’ West Coast. The search for global recognition will take a long time to make a substantive difference.
Meanwhile the global free trade environment is becoming more difficult, especially with Donald Trump threatening import tariffs on all US imports.
Aligned procurement has made some progress with processors getting much better at matching their supply to market requirements through the use of new IT planning programmes and the introduction of market specific plans to reward performance. That said, there is still a significant element of third party procurement, particularly in the South Island, because of
its seasonal livestock peaks and troughs.
The opportunity to apply sector best practice applies to farmers and processors alike. Farmers are faced with unrealistic targets for various issues including methane reduction and freshwater management. These targets may be imposed either by central or local government, but it is extremely hard to get them changed once they are fixed by legislation.
An encouraging trend is the commitment to the assurance programmes NZFAP and NZFAP+, which will ultimately ensure best on farm practice across the sector.
This brings me to the point of assessing how far processors have come in applying best practice in their facilities. It is a truism that the ones most able to achieve this are those with the strongest balance sheets who have made sure they invest aggressively in plant and system upgrades.
While much has been talked about supplying what the consumers want, important as that is, it is more critical to reinvest profits intelligently, than to increase “nice to haves” like marketing departments or dividend payments to shareholders. An industry leading processor can pay what is necessary to reward the suppliers competitively and keep enough
to make profits for reinvestment, while less efficient operators cannot.
In conversation with several meat company CEOs, I received the same message from them all – a well-run company that knows its core business and has invested wisely in maintaining its assets is still profitable, even in difficult times.
They were all prepared to consider how they could constructively tackle any overcapacity, although this did not imply an intention to consider closure of any of their own efficient plants.
My impression is that at present this is more a South Island problem because of its seasonal nature and the age of some of the plants, borne out by the closure of Alliance’s Smithfield plant and the co-operative’s search for capital. It remains to be seen how this goes and whether Silver Fern Farms is able to help Alliance find a solution, if necessary. It is hard to see any other company assisting with the process of rationalisation, unless one emerges from offshore. The challenges facing sheep and beef farming have become more acute in the last decade and the sector’s survival demands a careful focus on all the essentials, supported by intelligent government policy that avoids knee-jerk reactions.
Data-driven, region-specific plans for extension activity
B+LNZ’s Farmer Council and Extension Team used regional and national insights and data to develop the 2024/25 Regional Extension Delivery Plans (RDPs)
These plans guide B+LNZ’s extension programme, directing time and levy investments to meet farmers’ needs and priorities for regional events and activities ensuring our work continues to be ‘by farmers, for farmers’.
Each of the seven B+LNZ Farmer Councils built their own RDP to address regional needs and set goals for the RDP to ‘shift the dial’ for farmers B+LNZ’s Kāhui (advisory) lead a national plan that guides B+LNZ’s Māori agribusiness strategy and extension efforts.
As a result, farmers will now see a range of events, field days, workshops and small group learning opportunities in their area, all aimed at supporting farmers to take action on the opportunities for their business from production efficiencies to farm team performance
Our Extension Team is out in full force, delivering events and groups, connecting with farmers on the ground and working with our Farmer Councils and Kāhui to adapt our work in response to seasonal opportunities and challenges
B+LNZ’s RDPs are powered by the B+LNZ Farmer Council and Kāhui.
View your local RDP at beeflambnz.com/RDPs and local events at beeflambnz com/events
Sector Focus Deer
Farmers showing renewed faith in deer
Farmers throughout New Zealand are throwing their lot in with deer as a profitable diversification option that complements other stock classes, says Deer Industry New Zealand. In these articles the organisation profiles a handful of new farmers and those returning to the industry on properties already boasting the necessary infrastructure.
Taihape couple bringing back deer
KRISTIN Churchward’s parents, Fraser and Shona Gordon, were among the first in the central North Island to farm deer on their 630 hectare property east of Taihape, starting with 40 hinds they trapped in the early 1980s. They eventually deer fenced about one-third of the property, which largely carries sheep and beef. At its peak, the farm carried up to 800 breeding hinds, with the focus on venison production. Churchward’s parents eventually let the deer go about 15 years ago. She said ticks affecting the deer spurred the decision to exit deer, although so far that hasn’t been an issue since they’ve been reintroduced.
She and husband Matt have succeeded her parents on the property, and were keen to reintroduce deer to the operation, utilising the existing infrastructure
and diversifying income.
The farm currently carries 130 breeding cows, 50 weaner heifers and 4000 ewes, and this year 250 weaner red deer have been added to the mix, sourced from local deer farmer Peter Stratton. Kristin said they’ve invested $20,000 repairing and improving the existing deer fences and lanes, saving some money through Matt doing the fencing. Their next project is to improve weigh scales in the deer shed.
They financed the investment through their cattle, keeping a number of bull calves entire and selling them off Mum at weaning.
“The deer will fit in really well with our sheep and cattle. We plan to send the animals off to slaughter in January and February.”
She said they are still to decide whether they will establish a deer breeding herd or continue to source weaners each year. “We want to keep the system simple at this stage, so don’t want to be dealing with sire stags.”
They are not using all of the deer-fenced paddocks for deer at the moment, but are keen to keep their options open to expand numbers. Next year they will drop ewe numbers and possibly increase to 400 head of deer.
“I grew up with deer on this farm, and Matt and I have both had a taste of running deer in other jobs. It’s great to have them back here.”
The local deer farming community has been very helpful and supportive, said Kristin.
“They want to see us succeed.”
New convert in deer farming heartland
DAVID Earl hadn’t farmed deer before and doesn’t deal with the animals in his day job as a stock agent, but living in the heart of deer farming country in South Canterbury he’s had plenty of contact with the industry over the years.
He’s recently bought an 84 hectare dryland block near Geraldine, a mix of flat and rolling country with some steeper back faces. And although the farm hasn’t had deer on it for 10 years, it has all the fencing and infrastructure needed.
“I know a few deer farmers in the area and have some as clients. That got me interested in the industry, so when this property came up, it was great opportunity to get involved,” Earl said.
He’s currently running dairy grazers on the property but has also bought 115 two, three and four-year-old velveting stags, hoping to eventually build numbers up to 220.
He’s happy to keep on buying in stags rather than breeding his own replacements.
Having observed the industry from the outside for a while, Earl said he’s been impressed by the passion and engagement of deer farmers. But he’s also confident in the prospects for deer farming.
“Long term, it’s one of the most profitable sectors,” he said, adding that it will be important for the country’s breeding herd to build up to help support newcomers such as himself.
The property is well set up for deer, with the steep faces ideal territory for the stags during the roar. There are no major waterways, so no particular issues with stock exclusion. They are on a local scheme for stock water.
One of the attractions for Earl has been the low labour requirements for farming deer. He lives 10 minutes away with his young family but plans to do most of the work himself with the help of casual labour and contractors when needed.
“We’ve got a good local vet who has plenty of experience in deer, and I have a great network of friends in the industry.”
Having observed
Earl is in it for the long haul. He plans to add more trees and shrubs to the farm as finances allow, and hopes his three children – the oldest is 12 – will share his enthusiasm for the animals and get involved in the deer operation as they grow.
MORE: See page 16
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Deer pass muster for enthusiastic newcomer
WAS it the economics stacking up? The stunning farm environment? The attraction of such a majestic animal?
Christchurch-based David Kieser would probably cite all of these reasons and more for his excitement about joining the deer industry.
The South African-born surgeon has lived in New Zealand since he was in his teens, and while pursuing a career in medicine, he’s always been interested in farming here. His family in South Africa – he grew up in Johannesburg – have a game farm, and Kieser said this probably underlies his “deepseated attraction” for animals like deer.
“They seem to thrive in the New Zealand environment, and are not hard on the land, so that was a big plus for me as well,” he said.
His first investment in New Zealand farming was a sheep and beef joint venture with a neighbour, that performed very poorly, so this year Kieser’s attention was turned to consolidating the farm to focus on the freehold Grasmere, a 550 hectare property near Arthur’s Pass.
Although the perimeter had some deer fencing, the internal boundaries were initially twowire fences, and sheep fences, used first for dairy grazing, and then sheep and beef.
INTEREST: David Keiser, a South African-born surgeon, has lived in New Zealand since he was in his teens, and while pursuing a career in medicine, he’s always been interested in farming here too.
Supplied
That was never the long-term plan, however, and with farm manager Hamish Taylor, Kieser has embarked on an ambitious farm development programme. Taylor has installed over 30km of deer fencing since April, and two centre pivots have been installed on the summer-dry property. With the help of PGG Wrightson deer specialist Graham Kinsman, about 75 velvetting stags have so far been sourced, along with about 185 hinds for breeding replacements. Kieser is keen to eventually build up the hind numbers to 250-300, with up to 1000 stags. Kieser believes that farming approach will suit
the mostly flat farm, which has a hill block suitable for fawning. The deer will be complemented by about 200 sheep and 100 cattle.
“Markets are fickle, so we will keep our options open to change the balance between stock classes,” he said.
The deer shed on the property has been brought up to specification for deer velvetting, with only some polyurethaning waiting to be done as the 2024 velvet season approached.
There was no housing on the property, so Kieser also bought the adjacent Grasmere lodge. That will still be run as a tourist lodge, with the added attraction of animals like Highland cattle, pigs, llamas and poultry. Kieser is wanting to showcase New Zealand’s premier deer farming industry, using the lodge as the platform.
Although the family is based in Christchurch, Kieser said they love going up to the farm, which is 75 minutes away. He usually manages to get up there with wife Sandra and their four young children about once a fortnight. There is something of a link between deer velvetting and his day job as a surgeon, and Kieser is keen to get certified as a deer velveter.
“I’m just interested in learning all about the velvet industry, including processing and the potential medicinal benefits.”
Keen young couple gain industry foothold
IF YOU wanted to see a great example of a new generation getting underway in deer farming, Taylah Barrett and Joe Abernethy would be a good place to start. The young couple are getting their foothold on the family farm of Abernethy’s parents, Ruth and Miles, in the Mataroa area, west of Taihape.
The 1300 hectare property, which is in two blocks, carries sheep, beef, and about 700 venison breeding hinds plus sires. All of the deer are on the smaller 240ha block, but there is deer fencing and deer sheds on both blocks.
Abernethy works as a shepherd on a nearby sheep and beef farm, and Barrett has a day job working at the PGG Wrightson store in Taihape. The couple have both grown up on farms and around deer farming. One of Barrett’s brothers also farms deer and her father Jimmy works on the property of prominent local deer farmer, Robbie Bruce. While they have good family connections in the industry, Barrett and Abernethy are charting their own course in deer. They are more keen on the velvet side than venison, and made their start by purchasing 14 mixed-age velvet stags from Bruce. The next step was to buy 12 in-fawn hinds with velvet genetics, which they acquired through another local, Dougal Satherly.
They came out slightly ahead in the fawn gender lottery, with
seven of the 12 being male and thus eligible for velvet production, while the female fawns can be retained as breeding replacements.
Barrett and Abernethy are excited to be making their start as deer farmers in their own right.
Abernethy said that although his parents have always been venison farmers, they are watching the young couple’s budding velvet herd with interest and are considering diversifying some of their production into velvet as well.
His mother Ruth is a veterinarian and registered to harvest velvet antler, which also fits well with their enterprise. They are keenly aware of the need for good genetics and are fortunate to be part of a close-knit and supportive deer farming community. With the encouragement of local industry leaders like Andrew Peters and Mark McCoard, Barrett and Abernethy attended the recent
VALUE: Rhys Griffiths says this year is about building the foundations for a new era for the deer industry based on value for products, farmers, processors and exporters and the country.
DINZ ‘hugely excited’ about sector future
Annette Scott NEWS Deer
THIS will be a year to set the foundation for real change in the deer industry, says Deer Industry New Zealand’s recently appointed chief executive, Rhys Griffiths.
Encouraged by where the industry is heading into 2025, Griffiths is “hugely excited about the future”.
“I was genuinely excited getting back to my office for the new year ahead,” Griffiths said.
BEGINNING: Taylah Barrett and Joe Abernethy are getting their foothold on the family farm of Abernethy’s parents, Ruth and Miles, in the Mataroa area, west of Taihape.
Photo: Supplied
Next Generation programme for young people in the industry.
Barrett said they learnt plenty more about the industry during the two-day programme. The best outcome for them was the networking and making new friends and connections in the industry, including other locals who they hadn’t realised were farming deer.
“The deer industry does this networking really well,” she said. It’s a busy time for the couple, who are both also representative rugby players. Barrett is reserve halfback for the Manawatū Cyclones, finalists in this year’s Farah Palmer Cup, and Abernethy is a loose forward/lock for Whanganui in the Heartland Championship.
And while both their teams have been doing well this season, their eyes are also fixed on the long-term prize as they make their mark in the deer industry.
– Supplied by Deer Industry New Zealand
“There have been challenges, a lot has happened for the industry in 2024, some of it exciting, some of it frustrating, but ultimately I am excited about the future.”
Deer Industry New Zealand (DINZ) is hearing evidence of farmers interested about getting into deer, he said.
There is a sense of momentum out there and we are firming this up through our networks.
Rhys Griffiths Deer Industry New Zealand
“While anecdotal, there is a sense of momentum out there and we are firming this up through our networks.
“This year will be about building the foundations for a new era for the deer industry based on value, value for our products, value for our farmers, for our processors and exporters and for our country.
“Looking at it with a lens for the next story of what our forefathers did, this could be phase two in the pioneering space.”
Griffith sees huge potential in driving consumption at a consumer level.
“Healthy food in China is a huge opportunity to work on as we have now signed off with velvet in health functional foods with the South Korean
government that will take us into another category to increase potential in that market.
“We will work on China.
“With market access to China for NZ frozen velvet restored, we’re set up for a push into more contemporary health products in China.
“It will take a year or so to really get legs as we start scaling up that activity to start paying some dividends, working with exporters, marketers and healthy food initiatives in China.”
The move into the niche retail space in North America presents a more diverse market in the venison space.
The funding for the North American Retail Accelerator (NARA) project, supported by all five NZ venison processing companies, has been approved with funding through the government’s Sustainable Food and Fibre Futures programme.
“This project will deliver results for our venison producers and I am eager to extract even more value with a keen eye on co-products as an area to explore.”
These directions are all a part of an industry strategy refresh, “our roadmap into this new era to deliver improved and sustainable value for our industry”.
“2025 is going to be a good year. We must continue to dream bigger and put into action tangible plans to realise those dreams.
“We sit on the edge of a new era, an era of change, changing markets and market expectations, changing climate and weather, changing technologies, changing farming systems and practices.
“There have always been challenges ahead, but also big opportunities and the deer industry has always seen change ahead of time and embraced it, choosing innovative thinking over the status quo.
“Looking forward, it is this attitude that will help us to thrive in this new era.”
Making the farmer voice even louder
After a massive year of policy wins, Federated Farmers president Wayne Langford says his biggest focus this year will be on making the farmer voice so loud it can’t be ignored.
“Last year it felt like we were riding this huge wave of positive momentum and change that we knew would make a real difference for farming families,” Langford says.
“Red tape was getting slashed, costs were being cut, and the Government were quickly working their way through our list of 12 policy priorities for restoring farmer confidence.
“We’re talking about huge issues like a review of methane reduction targets, a rewriting of the RMA, sorting immigration settings, and stopping impractical and expensive freshwater rules.
“We finished the year touring the country with the Prime Minister and for the first time in a very long time it really felt like farmers were being respected, valued, and listened to.
“Looking back now and reflecting on what made all that change possible, the answer is simple. It all comes down to our membership and the mandate that gives us to speak for farmers.”
That’s why Langford says he’s determined to make 2025 the year of membership growth for Federated
Farmers and making the collective farming voice even louder.
“When I take off my gumboots and head to Wellington, I need politicians to know I’m representing the true voice of farming and rural New Zealand.
“I’ve got 13,000 farming families standing behind me, and that carries a huge amount of weight and political heft, but imagine what we could achieve if that number was 20,000?
I’ve got 13,000 farming families standing behind me, and that carries a huge amount of weight and political heft, but imagine what we could achieve if that number was 20,000?
Wayne Langford Federated Farmers president
“This isn’t about growing revenue for Federated Farmers; it’s about growing the size of our voice so we can be even louder when we speak up for farmers.”
Speaking on the Federated Farmers Podcast, Langford said the organisation has recently made some changes to its membership categories and prices.
“The changes we’ve made are all about making membership as
relevant and affordable as possible. It’s also about trying to make sure we’re offering real value for our members too.
“We want as many farmers on our team as we can to give us the influence to keep driving policy change, so we’ve been making some tweaks to help with that.”
Changes include introducing a new premium membership, a supporter’s membership, and making it easier for farmers to add their retired parents, children, or staff to their membership.
“Another big focus for me this year will be getting the wider farming sector to play as one team, stick to their specific roles, and do the job farmers expect them to do,” Langford says.
“This was something I really tried to push last year, but it’s been a hard slog. We’ve seen some progress, and everyone is getting along well, but things are moving too slowly.
“We’re nowhere near as united as we need to be and there’s still a huge amount of duplication, and it’s farmers who are paying for that.”
Langford’s biggest frustration is when he sees other farming groups dabbling in advocacy when it suits them – often with conflicting messages and agendas.
“That just allows Ministers to pick and choose who they listen to,” he says.
STRONGER: Wayne Langford is on a mission to grow Federated Farmers’ membership, so the organisation has even greater influence when advocating for farmers.
“At the end of the day, farmer advocacy is Federated Farmers’ bread and butter. It’s what we’re known for, and we’ve been doing it for over 125 years.
“Do we really need all these groups flying into Wellington to do the rounds of the same Beehive offices, or scrambling to put out media releases on the same issue? I don’t think we do.
“It might be a different story if Federated Farmers weren’t performing, but from what I’m hearing from our members,
they’ve never had more confidence in us to get the job done.”
Langford says he’s a huge supporter of levy groups and they have an important role to play, but it’s in research, science and extension, not political advocacy.
“There’s a real appetite out there from farmers for us to sort this out, so I’m going to be making sure 2025 is the year we finally do.”
Hear Wayne on episode 25 of the Federated Farmers Podcast – fedfarm. org.nz/podcast
A life lived to the full in the high country
A“really generous, fun guy” who loved his dogs and riding horses.
That’s how Mt Somers farmer and friend Nick France remembers Colin Drummond, who died on 11 December after what his family described as a brief but brutal illness.
“He was ‘old school’, but in a good way. Once he warmed to you, he was great company.
“It’s a real loss. Colin had so much mana in the high country community,” France said.
Another friend described Drummond as “a true high country man whose life was as rich and varied as the landscapes he loved”.
Drummond, who held the pastoral lease of the 35,000-hectare Erewhon Station since 1998, was farewelled on 17 December, with humour and respect the hallmarks of his funeral service.
Around 400 friends, family, mustering team crews and fellow members of the Clydesdale Society of New Zealand sat in sunshine on a hill slope of the inland Canterbury station to celebrate his life.
Drummond and his second wife Erin Cassie ran cattle, merino sheep and a Clydesdale horse stud and he was the Mid Canterbury representative on the Federated Farmers High Country section for five years.
Feds High Country chair Ian Anderson also used ‘old school’ to sum up Drummond’s character.
“He was pretty traditional; didn’t own a cellphone, didn’t like meetings by Zoom.
“But he was committed to Federated Farmers and would travel for hours to go to a meeting.”
Drummond, affectionately known as ‘Major’ to friends, took a keen interest in the pastoral lease issues Federated Farmers advocated on, Anderson said.
Even though Erewhon Station is at the top of the Rangitata River, nestled up against the Southern Alps, Drummond followed closely the scrutiny given to water quality issues in the Ashburton Lakes.
He was pretty traditional; didn’t own a cellphone, didn’t like meetings by Zoom. But he was committed to Federated Farmers and would travel for hours to go to a meeting.
Ian Anderson
Federated Farmers High Country chair
He helped organise a high country field day at Ashburton Lakes earlier this year, including a presentation on sampling results that showed nitrate readings were higher in upper reaches of springfed creeks and often improved after passing through high countryfarmed land.
Anderson said Drummond didn’t like shortcuts, and believed in
getting a job done right first time.
His passion was his Clydesdale horses. He and Cassie found ways to carry out tasks on the farm using them, including ploughing crops, on musters, hauling wagons and running tourist trips.
Though born to parents who ran a dairy farm in Motueka, from age six Drummond dreamed of being a musterer.
He left Motueka at age 16 and worked on hill and high country farms, including Molesworth Station under Bill Chisholm, who friend and funeral service MC Phill Hooper said Drummond regarded as “the making of him”.
With his first wife, Christine Hill, he raised a son, Jamie, and daughter, Kelly.
The couple founded the dog food business Mighty Mix, brainstormed during a devastating snow in Marlborough in 1992.
They worked in a small factory
making the dog food and establishing the business before moving to Erewhon.
Kelly spoke at the service of an “extraordinary” childhood, and a loving father and Pop who encouraged her, and later her three sons, to catch his passion for horses, farming and the high country.
Caitlin Metz said she first met Drummond on Erewhon in 2007 when he “took a massive leap of faith” and allowed her to join a muster as a packie (cook for the crew).
“That decision began a respectful and fun friendship that spanned 15 autumn musters, countless Erewhon parties and horse shows with the beautiful Erewhon crew.”
Metz said Drummond’s generosity was matched only by his wicked sense of humour.
“The banter at breakfast and dinner during the muster was legendary.
“In difficult situations, ‘Major’ always knew what to do. His leadership was unwavering and he had an incredible ability to make everyone feel capable of the tasks at hand.”
Cassie said she’d been lucky to do life with a soulmate, “a one-in-amillion mountain of a man.
“He used to say life was no dress rehearsal, and he lived life at full throttle.”
Nick France said Drummond was a stalwart and huge asset to the Mayfield Collie Club.
He’d served as its president and every year would run the zig-zag course at the dog trials, bringing his staff with him to set it up and help on the day.
Drummond was buried at the site of his farewell service, overlooking the Clyde River and with a snowcapped mountain backdrop, where he could forever be part of the high country he loved.
Feds drive for school bus policy change
With changes to many rural school bus runs about to kick in,
Federated Farmers are keeping the pressure on for a longterm solution for school transport.
Toby Williams, Federated Farmers rural education spokesperson, says many farming families around the country will be starting this year facing major challenges getting their kids to school.
“Last year the Ministry of Education announced plans to scrap or change school bus runs in a number of rural communities, which is a major concern.
“My understanding is there have been 300 route reviews, resulting in 160 route changes and 18 school bus services discontinued.
“We’ve heard from a lot of really concerned Federated Farmers members about these changes.”
Williams says he’s disappointed the Ministry hasn’t come up with a way
to save the affected bus runs in time, but he’s hopeful for a longer-term solution that will prevent similar bus route changes in future.
“With all the other pressures farmers are under, changes to school transport routes are an inconvenient and disruptive issue we just don’t need.
“That’s why we’re continuing to put pressure on the Ministry to find solutions that work for rural communities.
“The current policy dates back to the 1920s and, frankly, no one thinks an ancient, 100-year-old policy is fit for purpose in today’s modern world.
“We need to bring our school bus routes into the 21st century and align them with the realities of life in rural New Zealand.”
Williams says Federated Farmers are working closely with Education Minister Erica Stanford on the issue – and she’s shown a real interest in finding a solution.
With all the other pressures farmers are under, changes to school transport routes are an inconvenient and disruptive issue we just don’t need.
Toby Williams Federated Farmers rural education spokesperson
They’re also working with the Ministry for Education, Opposition parties, rural schools and other stakeholders to try and find alternative arrangements that will give communities certainty.
“One of the options in the mix is to fund schools to run their own routes and take it completely out of the Ministry of Education’s control.
“Any policy shift will take time, and our focus now is on ensuring any changes reflect the reality on the ground and deliver something that will last.”
To qualify for school transport assistance, the Ministry of Education says children must go to their closest state or state-integrated school, must live more than a certain distance from the school, and there must be no suitable public transport options.
There must also be a minimum number of students on the bus route to keep it running.
Williams believes those criteria need to be reviewed.
“You need to have a minimum of eight children catching the bus from an area for it to carry on running, but we think that should be lowered to four.
“That would keep more bus routes viable and better reflect the realities of rural New Zealand, where we do have smaller communities than in the past.”
PETA campaign a disgraceful hit job
The way extreme animal activist group PETA have portrayed Kiwi sheep shearing couldn’t be further from the truth, but their footage should still serve as a stark wakeup call for farmers.
“What you’re seeing in their video is a montage showing isolated examples of poor practice. It’s a disgraceful hit job,” says Federated Farmers meat and wool chair Toby Williams.
“Most Kiwi farmers simply wouldn’t put up with that kind of behaviour in our shearing sheds. In fact, I’ve thrown shearers out of my own shed for far less.”
Williams says New Zealand farmers have incredibly high animal welfare standards and take the responsibility of caring for their animals very seriously.
“The whole reason we shear our sheep in the first place is for the animal’s health and wellbeing. We want to prevent issues like
fly strike and heat stress over the summer months.
“If we didn’t shear our sheep, they’d be pretty uncomfortable, at risk of overheating, and be susceptible to parasites and disease.”
He says Federated Farmers absolutely condemns the behaviour seen in the footage released by PETA recently, and is extremely disappointed it has been filmed on New Zealand farms.
“This really needs to serve as a wake-up call to our entire industry. If we see something in our shed that we’re not happy with, we need to speak up and do something about it right away.
“One bad apple really can spoil the whole barrel. We can’t afford for the reputation of our world-leading sheep farmers and shearers to be tarnished by a few rogue cowboys.”
Farmers needed at the council table
Jamie Falloon has had enough of ballooning council rates bills, impractical regulation and roading mismanagement.
“I’ve also come to realise you can only get so far throwing rocks from the outside.
“I want to get under the hood myself, get around the council table and ask officers some awkward questions.”
Falloon, a former Federated Farmers Wairarapa president, is standing for the Masterton District Council in the local body elections later this year.
He sees a disconnect between what ratepayers fork out and what they get for that money.
“The rates rises are unsustainable.
“I know there are cost pressures on councils too but any other business delivering a service can’t put up their prices like that.”
Falloon has run a farming business for 20 years, has experience in freshwater issues and, through his Federated Farmers’ roles, with advocacy.
“I can use that to push for value for money at council.”
Federated Farmers local government spokesperson Sandra Faulkner’s advice to any farmer thinking of putting their name in the hat for district or regional council elections in October is simple: do it.
“As an organisation, Federated Farmers has a solid track record for persuading councils to back away from policies and financial decisions that disadvantage rural property owners.
“But it helps immensely to have people who understand rural issues around that council table.”
Don’t doubt your credentials, Faulkner says.
“Anyone who’s run a business of any sort, but a farming one in particular, absolutely has skills useful to being a great councillor.
“At the end of the day, a council is a big business.”
Faulkner, who served a term on Gisborne District Council before
having to chose between standing again or joining the Federated Farmers national board, says her three years on the council was rewarding.
She believes farmers “bring a strong sense of what’s practical” to council chambers.
“I think it’s the integrated nature of our businesses – making ends meet, working with the environment, taking a longer-term view.
“Neither town nor country can do without the other, and I think country folk tend to be more aware of that.”
The argument for more farmers on councils makes perfect sense to former Federated Farmers Hawke’s Bay president Will Foley.
He’s now in his second term on the Hawke’s Bay Regional Council and is its deputy chairperson.
Farmers bring that practical, “look for solutions” attitude, Foley says.
“With regional councils, the vast bulk of the land area is under farming.
“When council looks at environmental aspects of the region,
- Rober t Har ding
by default it involves farmers and landowners.
“So absolutely it’s important for farmers to be represented in discussions on what council is doing on a day-to-day basis, and strategy going forward.”
Asked if he’s found his time on
I want to get under the hood myself, get around the council table and ask officers some awkward questions.
Jamie Falloon
Former Federated Farmers Wairarapa president
council frustrating or rewarding, Foley says it’s a bit of both.
“It’s been rewarding from a personal point of view because I’ve learned a lot about the inner workings of local government. I’ve come to appreciate the staff, and the effort that they put in.”
The biggest frustration is not being able to achieve outcomes the community wants more quickly.
That’s not just because of pressure on finances, Foley says, though that’s severe right now.
“There’s also the fact there are 10 other elected members, who may have different views, and the need for extended consultation on big issues.
“Sometimes central government can be your friend, or it can be totally frustrating what they impose on us.”
Foley and Faulkner caution candidates – and voters – who think there’s a whole lot of fat in council management and activities that can be easily cut.
“Councils are not exempt from the cost-of-living crisis – rising insurance bills, interest on debt, and so on,” Foley says.
“Community expectations on levels of service don’t diminish. Councils are putting up rates almost just to stand still at the moment.”
And the time commitment as a councillor?
“That’s up to you,” Foley says.
“You can make it a full-time role if you want, or as part-time as you can. But obviously there is a time commitment with the meetings and so on, and that comes with a cost.”
Auckland Federated Farmers president Alan Cole has served on Auckland City’s Franklin Board since 2013.
His advice to anyone thinking of standing is to get along to a few council or board meetings and workshops and get up to speed with the issues.
Faulkner agrees: “It will demystify both the process and the place, along with the issues you may want to campaign on,” she says.
SKILLS: Farmers can bring a practical ‘look for solutions’ attitude to councils, says Will Foley.
Hill Country property outlook for 2025 and beyond
As we embrace the New Year and look for opportunities for those making a living from Hill Country and Finishing Farming, the profit drivers supporting the farm balance sheet are more important now than ever. While this might seem an obvious statement to make, what is less obvious is that historically, valuation drivers in the 200ha+ pastoral market have been most strongly influenced by alternative land use options, not current business earnings, going right back to pre-GFC
For those considering selling their breeding/finishing farm, it is wor th getting a handle on what has historically driven the market, where the market is now, and, impor tantly, the most likely market influences for 2025 and beyond
The table below is a very useful summary of where the market for 200ha+ hill country and finishing farms has been going back 18 years
2015 198 $6,500 $698,395,732
2016 209 $6,690 $690,546,322
2017 183 $8,040 $709,961,729
2018 215 $8,170 $835,989,235
2019 194
$8,260 $842,982,291
2020 147 $8,100 $591,488,751
2021 195 $10,300 $964,801,348
2022 183 $12,500 $1,061,632,083
2023 105 $11,800 $498,202,343
2024 95 $10,300 $462,237,978
This market peaked immediately pre- GFC with 400 farm sales for $1 749 billion, the OCR on 1st January 2008 was 8 25%, and floating interest rates 10% plus Finished lamb was struggling to make $100/head, and wool was still in the doldrums back then too The dairy conversion boom underpinned many of these sales and remained a strong influence until 2014 On-farm profitability from the existing land use was much less of an influence, and LUC 1-4 land for dairy drove the market
Post-2014, in the run-up to 2020, the market operated more within the existing land use (farmer to farmer) at approx 200 farms for $800m sold annually, with a median price of $7,000 -$8,000/ha The market was underpinned by very strong beef and lamb schedules and record-low interest rates In 2020 however the market took a check as the primary sec tor s access to banking capital hit up against regulatory hurdles; despite money never being cheaper, the OCR 1st January 2020 was 1%!
But like all things farming, things can change very quickly, and over 2021 and 2022, the market absorbed the impac t of the billion trees policy and the knock-on “golden ticket” that enabled extensive hill country to be sold for trees at prices more aligned to finishing values
Given the magnitude of this oppor tunity it is interesting to note that annual farm sale s in 2021 (195 farms) and 2022 (183 farms) were only ever on par with an average year When pasture to forestry was at its peak, the value of total sales (200ha+) hit $1 billion in 2022, which was only 20% up on the long-run annual market value
However it was the highly concentrated nature of these sales notably on the East Coast of the Nor th Island in conjunc tion with the policy settings themselves, that gave rise to some very rapid land use change with entire stations conver ted to trees, severely impac ting those rural communities
So where are we now?
On balance the issues with overcapacity wool prices and a declining sheep flock have been long-term systemic issues well before 2021 and 2022 Since then over the last two calendar years, the 200ha+ breeding and finishing proper ty market has been operating at 50% of its prior 10 -year averages by farm sales, total farm
sales value, and, impor tantly, hec tares sold (45,000/ha last year) Median prices have held up, but that is the only thing that has We can say for cer tain now that ‘pasture to trees’ is no longer driving farm valuations At best, forestry might be underpinning farm valuations at historic long-term farm averages ($7 000 to $8 000/ha) much like it always has done
So where to from here?
On the current trend, farm sales must double to return to a long-run average of 200 farms sold for $800m to $1 billion in sales value from 100,000ha sold The market needs a circuit breaker because interest rates alone, as we ’ ve seen in the past are not always enough The good news is there may just be one This circuit breaker has the power to give one neighbour a significant competitive advantage over another, and that’s cash flow A strong cash flow will improve saleability for those wanting full value for their farm and the horsepower to attrac t the next generation to invest
Hon Todd McLays’s announcement on the 6th December 2024 to limit farm to forestry conversions entering the E TS and protec t E TS cer tainty for foresters has potentially gifted farmers a significant oppor tunity to par ticipate in this land use change without having to sell the farm, and dramatically improve cashflow and farm profitability The ability to attrac t sustainability funding to develop the farm, hedge the commodity cycle and provide a range of exit strategies (cutting & carbon rights) are very real options now In addition these decisions could provide legitimate capital release options for those up against it in the future without selling the land
Irrespec tive of your view on a decarbonising economy, it’s hard to see how wood will not have a stronger mandate looking ahead 20+ years However, over the next 5-10 years, there will be a carbon circuit breaker to help scale or exit the farm business Most will see this as a bridge too far Still our business has always had our vendor s best interest at the centre of any marketing program In the for ward view, if 20% of the farm is generating 50% of the profit with little labour input, we are firmly of the view we can find buyers for that farm
Change and oppor tunity are easy things to write about, much harder to adopt and implement; the numbers are the numbers currently and without circuit breakers they are likely to stay on trend for a very long time Scale has been the primary mechanism for maintaining business viability in our sheep and beef sec tor by doing more with less labour over the last 20 -30 years This is not a very attrac tive proposition in the long term, par ticularly from the next generation’s perspec tive Our advice never changes: get advice on options that best suit your family and business situation
Recent Central Government announcements are food for thought quite literally
Whether you ’ re looking to buy or s ell your farm or lifestyle proper ty our True Team is here to exceed your expec tations With a per fec t blend of energy and experience on your side, you can’t go wrong with Proper ty Brokers
Data Source: REINZ Conrad Wilkshire
Shannon 141 Okuku Road
A versatile unit - 85 ha in three titles
Located 30 km south of Palmerston North, this well located farm represents an opportunity for the discerning buyer as a true dairy support unit, a sheep and beef finishing unit or a cropping farm
This extensively Novaflo drained, flat contoured property is subdivided into 24 paddocks, most of which are serviced off fenced metaled lanes. The farm is presented in good heart with its strong soils and historic annual fertiliser applications Farm improvements include two dwellings, a variety of support shedding plus loadout facilities. A great opportunity in a great location to watch - your heifers grow, your cattle and lambs fatten, your crops flourish. Purchase options are available.
Pahiatua 422 Coonoor Road and Makuri Road
bareland - 35 ha
An opportunity to invest in a 35 ha block of productive soils, 2 km from the rural village of Shannon. Historically the farm has supported cropping and sheep/cattle finishing; of note the Kiwitea loam soils on the top terrace are excellent for intensive cropping. A small sidling in the middle of the farm bisects the flats adjoining Mangahao Road at the front and Engles Road at the rear of the property. Improvements include a woolshed cattle yards, utility shed and manure bin - there is also an airstrip on farm. There are excellent sites available should you wish to build your dream home. Purchase options - Both titles are available for individual purchase or as a whole.
Ted Shannon M 021 833 536
Cottrill M 027 354 5419
Ngawaewae - 333 ha
We are privileged to market this 305 ha effective hill country property in the highly sought after Makuri District, 30 km east of Pahiatua.
Regarded as summersafe and extensively subdivided into about 40 paddocks, this property has had consistent fertiliser inputs for many years along with ongoing development, which has resulted in premium stock performance. The contour on Ngawaewae consists of 20 ha of extensively drained flats, a further 20 ha of rolling, with the remainder medium to steeper limestone hill country, all serviced by reticulated water. Farming improvements include a three stand woolshed with covered yards (1,500 np), main cattle yards and loadout, airstrip, various satellite yards and sheds Accommodation is provided by a solid, well maintained and refurbished four bedroom, two living and two bathroom home.
Ngawaewae has been faithfully farmed for generations and provides a genuine turn key property.
closes 2.00pm, Tue 18th Feb,
View By appointment
pb.co.nz/PR184538
‘Hadlow
Farm’ - Now With Four Purchase Options*
234 hectares of flat to gentle rolling contour situated approximately 9km from Timaru. Our retiring vendors are operating this magnificent property as a dairy support, cattle and lamb finishing unit but have also intensively cropped the property in the past
A multiple laneway system provides excellent access for vehicle and stock movements to well fenced paddocks. Water is reticulated throughout the property from the Downlands water scheme Predominantly Claremont silt loams receiving an annual rainfall average of approximately 750mls per annum. Substantial infrastructure and facilities to support arable, cattle and sheep farming
The architecturally designed main homestead comprises five bedrooms, office, sunroom, open plan kitchen and dining area, separate living area and a large double garage set amongst well-tended established gardens with substantial views. A tidy three bedroom cottage accompanies the main dwelling adding accommodation opportunities.
*Purchase
Central Hawke's Bay 2048 State Highway 50
Breeding and finishing 305ha
Indigo Heights
On the doorstep of the Pongaroa village is this 305ha (Subject to title) sheep and cattle breeding and finishing unit Consisting of a mix of contours, the opportunities to utilise all these aspects provide the ability to breed and finish all stock on the farm
The property currently has a quarry operation and has been currently subdivided by the vendors The farm is currently leased to a local farmer
A four bedroom brick home with lovely views, three stand woolshed, sheep yards, two sets of satellite sheep yards and miscellaneous sheds, an airstrip and a fertiliser bin complete the infrastructure bayleys co nz/2871064
Indigo Heights is located approximately 21.2km west of Waipukurau with a land area of 280 182ha The property is held in two titles with access from both Highway 50 and Blackburn Road and is only 3km to the Onga Onga village with a local cafe school and garage workshop Currently run as a dairy support block with calves and R1 heifers along with grass and maize silage harvested for BEL Group dairy units Significant development has been carried out by the current owners with roading pasture renewal along with water reticulation and subdivision The contour would be best described as flat to easy rolling This spring 50ha of maize and 30ha of chicory have been sown Infrastructure includes two three-stand woolsheds, two sets of cattle yards and auxiliary shedding Indigo Heights represents a turn-key farming opportunity offering a range of farming options in an ideal location bayleys co nz/2871095
305 ha
280 182 ha
Tender (will not be sold prior)
Tender (unless sold prior)
Closing 12pm, Thu 30 Jan 2025
Closing 12pm, Wed 11 Dec 2024
26 Takapau Road, Waipukurau
26 Takapau Road, Waipukurau
View by appointment
View by appointment
Andy Hunter 027 449 5827
Vic Ellingham 027 201 6707
vic ellingham@bayleys co nz
andy hunter@bayleys co nz
Tim Wynne-Lewis 027 488 9719
Andy Hunter 027 449 5827
tim wynne-lewis@bayleys co nz
andy hunter@bayleys co nz
EASTERN REALTY LTD BAYLEYS
Central Hawke's Bay 241 Hinerangi Road
Breeding property with potential and scope
A rare opportunity to increase your farming operations or future forestry investment in the Pongaroa district Located at the end of Waikakahi Road, is this 391ha (more or less) property looking for new stewardships
The property includes a two storey four-bedroom home, three stand wool shed, covered yards, two bay hayshed and a three bay shed
Currently run as a sheep and beef farm the property is subdivided into approximately 40 paddocks with a mixture of electric and conventional fencing bayleys co nz/2871076
Clovelly spans 582 86 hectares across two titles in the esteemed Hatuma district, just 12km from Takapau village and 17km to Waipukurau This established farming enterprise offers a unique opportunity for buyers Currently run as a deer, sheep, and beef operation, it includes velveting stags, breeding hinds, a composite ewe flock, and cattle breeding and fattening The land features easy to rolling contours, a cultivatable basin, and steeper sidlings, with approximately 270 hectares deer-fenced and supported by laneway systems and metalled access tracks Sustainability is at the forefront, with a spring-fed, solar-powered water system, wetlands, and excellent fertiliser history enhancing productivity and environmental care Clovelly is a rare chance to own a welldeveloped, versatile property in a prime location bayleys co nz/2871103
bayleys.co.nz
391 4092 ha
582.862 ha
Tender (will not be sold prior)
Tender (unless sold prior)
Closing 12pm, Wed 12 Feb 2025
Closing 12pm, Wed 11 Dec 2024
26 Takapau Road, Waipukurau
26 Takapau Road, Waipukurau
View by appointment
View by appointment
Vic Ellingham 027 201 6707
vic ellingham@bayleys co nz
Andy Hunter 027 449 5827 andy hunter@bayleys co nz
MUCH like the abundance of early failed New Year’s resolutions, 2024 will go down as a year most machinery manufacturers and dealers would like to forget. However, signs of agricultural prosperity are signalling a much brighter and more prosperous 2025. The start of a new year makes oneself reflect. For me it’s having to admit one of the many times I have been wrong. In my last article, I predicted just under 2800 tractor sales for the year, turns out we did in fact crack 2800, 2806 to be exact for the 2024 campaign, ending overall 18% down on the previous year.
If you’d humour me with a little bit of stat chat, we will dissect what those numbers looked like.
December in isolation for a start, was only the fourth month this year to be above that of 2023, again, with a theme of real variation around the country.
South Island was up in total versus the North, most likely a reflection
of the slower start due to the weather in the southern South Island, with Southland alone up 66% compared to last year.
Conversely, the Nelson region suffered the biggest December dip, down nearly 60%. Horsepower segment wise, the 150-200 hp tractor market posted an 81% increase over last year which shows two things, firstly some regions had a slow spring growth which made people sit on their hands until the work started flowing.
Secondly, the high dealer inventory levels allowed confidence they could find the machine that suited their needs, albeit with a slight compromise on their desired ‘spec’.
Overall sector comparative to 2023, the North Island sold nearly two thirds of all of the tractors in the country and also suffered a lower percentage drop comparative to 2023. Only two horsepower sectors posted an increase in sales over the 2023 year, the 90-100 hp was ever so slightly ahead while the most successful segment with a 10% increase was the 375 hp plus sector.
was Taranaki (albeit by two units overall).
As we crack into 2025 there is an overwhelmingly positive yet cautious vibe around the dealers.
Regionally Northland was the winner posting an 8.5% increase over the 2023 year and the only other region to be in the black
The biggest drop was in Hawke’s Bay with a 136 unit decline which is most likely to do with a large increase in tractor sales on the back of cyclone Gabrielle which seen the 2023 numbers ‘falsely’ inflated due to the harrowing devastation, associated insurance claims/replacement tractors to help with the cleanup efforts.
Twelve months on, some are struggling to regain the former productivity of that prior to the cyclone resulting in less sales. Nelson was the largest overall drop in the South Island, posting nearly half the units of the year before.
The horsepower sector to suffer the most was the 200+ hp and only managed to chalk up 66% of the previous year’s numbers. The 100-150 hp was overall only down 10% confirming this is the most common tractor size sold in the country, accounting for one in every three machines sold.
As we crack into 2025 there is an overwhelmingly positive yet cautious vibe around the dealers. Rural confidence is up, and interest rates are heading in the right direction as are revenue streams. Due to the uncertainty, some machines have been held slightly longer, but this shift in confidence will result in many reverting to a more ‘traditional’ replacement policy. I’m predicting 2025 to be prosperous for the machinery sector. According to my crystal ball, 3600 units will be the number this year, hopefully I don’t get it confused with the snow globe again.
HOLLY FARM SOUTHDOWNS
SALE TALK
• Auto Correct has become my worst enema. If you’re having second thoughts you’re two up on most people.
I often wonder what people have against the horse I rode in on.
If ever you’re about to be mugged by a pair of clowns, don’t hesitate to go for the juggler. The winner of the abbreviation contest is TBA.
• We went to a zoo the other day and there was only one dog - It was a shitzu.
• I really thought my wife was joking when she said she wanted to see a Monkees cover band play in Switzerland, then I saw her face, now I’m in Geneva. I know they say that money talks but all mine says is “goodbye.”
• My new year’s revolution is to learn how to spell. The only thing you get free of charge is a dead battery.
When I was a child, my mother told me I could be anyone I wanted to be, but it turns out the police call this “identity theft”.
• In an effort to bridge the cultural gap with my Hispanic friends, I’ve been saying “muchos” a lot more recently, it means a lot to them.
Prices through the roof at Puketoro sale
Competition among processors for supply has put the power back in the hands of the sellers.
Alex Coddington MARKETS Livestock
ALL facets of Puketoro Station’s ninth annual on-farm sale exceeded expectations on Wednesday, January 8. The turnout was impressive from both buyers and spectators. Demand outstripped supply, and a number of curious onlookers were drawn to the farm to see just how high prices could go at New Zealand’s first on-farm sale of 2025.
Puketoro Station is an 8674 hectare sheep and beef property owned by the McNeil family, located inland of Tokomaru Bay, north of Gisborne, on the east coast of the North Island. The day’s results were a credit to the vendors.
The 15-month cattle and two-tooth ewes were in superb condition despite the challenging start to summer, and the hospitality provided to all who attended was just as impressive.
Central Livestock agent and auctioneer Shane Scott commented: “The sale results went through the roof. There was a large turnout of buyers and onlookers, and they did not hold back in their bidding. Many of the lines were sold to repeat buyers.”
The attraction of large lines of quality-bred, tried and trusted livestock drew the attention of buyers from Hawke’s Bay,
Manawatū and Waikato, despite the cost of transport from such an isolated location.
The known quality of the stock was enough to push bids beyond expectations.
The 50 mixed-age Angus cows and calves returned $2220 per unit, a $700 lift from last year’s sale, when they made $1520.
There were just under 800 15-month steers available over seven lots, ranging from 335 kg to 438 kg.
These steers returned from $1410 up to $1840, or $4.21/kg to $4.35/kg—70-80c/kg above last year. The 300 15-month Angus heifers, weighing 325-371kg,
returned from $3.85/kg up to $4.12/kg.
In the sheep section, the twotooth Romdale ewes were the highlight. The $268 price tag on the top line reflected their size and presentation, while the rest returned $232-$252.
The day’s results were a credit to the vendors.
These ewes made a top price of $172 last year, reflecting a very different sheep market.
The two Coopdale pens on offer made $196 and $240, compared
South Africa & Zimbabwe
to $159-$167 last year, while the 1900 five-year ewes made $125-$173, averaging $165—up from $86-$139 last year. The 690 Romdale mixed-age ewes made $130-$161.
Livestock markets have gotten off to a flying start in 2025.
Rainfall on the once-dry east coast over the three-week break has restored momentum to cattle demand at a time when supply is restricted by lower herd numbers and farmers’ inclination to hold on to stock.
Farmgate prices for both cattle and sheep are well up compared to this time last year, contributing to the large lift in store prices. The
current AgriHQ North Island steer indicator is $1.25/kg above last year’s level, cows are up $1.50/ kg, and mutton has increased by $1.60/kg.
Global market conditions for export beef couldn’t be more favourable, with growing demand from overseas markets and a lowtracking NZ dollar boosting New Zealand’s average export value for beef, benefiting exporters and onfarm returns.
The strong level of competition among processors for supply has put the power back in the hands of the vendors, and the Puketoro Station on-farm sale results reflected just that.
United Kingdom & Ireland
Cattle Sheep Deer
Weekly saleyard results
These weekly saleyard results are collated by the AgriHQ LivestockEye team. Cattle weights and prices are averages and sheep prices are ranges. For more detailed results and analysis subscribe to your selection of LivestockEye reports. Scan the QR code or visit www.agrihq.co.nz/livestock-reports
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The state of the nation’s summer so
FEEDBACK from New Zealanders about how summer has been so far splits them into two camps: those who love the cooler, less muggy weather and those sick of the wind and cold.
So far Southern Ocean weather systems have been dominating our weather with cooler and windier airflows spilling over NZ. This has produced a lot of southerlies into the country that curve around as easterlies (SE, E, NE).
As a result of this set-up, temperatures have been well down around coastal parts of the South Island and it’s been wetter than usual in the east of NZ too.
Our mountains and ranges have then blocked that flow for other regions, making for drier than usual conditions in the west of both main islands.
Driest
The region considerably drier than average is Fiordland, with very little rain falling there this year. Normally Fiordland’s
weather has little impact on other regions but it’s worth mentioning that our rainforest, one of the wettest places in the world, hasn’t had much rain this year.
In the North Island it’s National Park and King Country proving to be driest. Generally speaking the southern half of West Coast and most of Taranaki, Waikato, Auckland and Northland are driest underfoot, with Bay of Plenty, Whanganui and parts of Manawatū close behind.
Wettest
The most complaints about a wetter, colder, summer have come from Hawke’s Bay and Gisborne – regions that were enjoying mid-summer heat back in November.
Since then the hot spring westerlies have gone, only to be replaced by those cooler southerlies and easterlies. Along with nearby low pressure and thunderstorms, it’s been much wetter than normal for the eastern North Island from Wairarapa to East Cape.
In the South Island there are some surprising regions wetter than usual underfoot – Nelson,
NEUTRAL: We have no La Niña, we’re still in neutral and that’s bringing variety to New Zealand’s weather pattern for the rest of January. Images: WeatherWatch
of all places. Normally dry and protected from southerlies and easterlies due to the Southern Alps, Nelson – along with Marlborough – has had a number of severe thunderstorms and heavy downpours, making the top of the South Island wetter than average. Canterbury, like the eastern North Island, has also had those cooler easterlies and southerlies and that’s put central Canterbury (and in particular Banks Peninsula) wetter than usual for January,
along with a big chunk of Southland.
What next?
There is some change coming to our weather patten. High pressure looks to be centred south of NZ rather than over us in the week or two ahead. That means low pressure has a much greater chance of forming over eastern Australia, the Tasman Sea and then over towards New Zealand. This brings in some better
chances for rain (along with muggier northerlies at times) and this may be good for those driest regions in the west.
But the southern placement of high pressure means temperatures may drop again. At the time of writing this means another cold southerly is possible late this week – then milder northerlies from another Tasman Sea low again next week.
This messy forecast may actually show a balancing act soon in play.