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FARMERS WEEKLY – farmersweekly.co.nz – August 24, 2020
Pulse
WEATHER Soil Moisture
Overview The early spring pattern continues with low pressure smothering New Zealand on Monday but then the usual windy sou’westers kick in behind it. The week ahead will be cooler than last week with our winds this week mostly from the south west, coming out of the Southern Ocean/ south of Australia region (the opposite of the sub-tropical nor’easters we had in many places last week). In saying that, the windier weather will keep overnight lows up with frosts less likely in the earlier part of this week. However, later this week high pressure expands again from the west, bringing colder nights, lighter winds and drier skies. Next week, looks spring-like with more windy westerlies and highs centred further to the north.
Good season for SI prime lambs
20/08/2020
William Hickson williamhickson@globalhq.co.nz
Source: NIWA Data
Highlights
Wind
Winds this week lean south to south west, tilting more westerly later in the week/weekend. While a little blustery at times in exposed areas nothing too significant is currently showing up. Winds mainly cooler in the west but milder in the east.
Highlights/ Extremes
Temperature Cooler this week compared to last week for many regions as winds swing from sub-tropical northerly quarter to coming out of the Southern Ocean. With high pressure coming in later this week (bringing lighter winds) expect some frosts in the south around then.
14-day outlook
While Monday this week kicks off with low pressure smothering NZ, this time next week it will be high pressure pushing back in – meaning as we end August and start September, westerlies are likely with drier weather in the north and east.
7-day rainfall forecast
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HE decent season for lamb at the South Island sale yards has continued in the leadup to new season lamb supply coming online soon. The yards covered by the AgriHQ LivestockEye reports – Temuka, Canterbury Park and Coalgate – are typically a popular outlet for prime lambs, and until lockdown this year throughput through these yards was 5% higher than 2019. Although there was a slight increase in volume at the first post-lockdown sales, volume since then has realigned with the past year. That lack of significant volume is creating a strong procurement competition between processors as the South Island lamb supply hit record lows a few weeks back. Sellers are, therefore, opting to take the sale yard route as premiums can often be made from the increased competition provided by multiple buyers needing to fill contracts. It is also one of the few outlets for the oversized lambs that would incur penalties if sent directly to the processors. The median lamb price paid at these centres has hovered around the $150 mark in August thus far, with the Temuka sale on August 17 reaching all the way to $167. The mild 2020 winter may be impacting these values by allowing lambs offered to have higher yield potential, especially if they were held on the property for longer than usual as a result of lockdown.
While the current August prices are $5-$10 higher than the five-year average, they have started a more restricted curve upwards than usual as the number of oldseason lambs dwindles. The median price each week has also been tracking higher than usual for this time of year, but prices for the heaviest pens during August have lagged significantly behind previous years. Only one pen so far in August, at Coalgate on the 14th, has been able to reach $200. During 2019, this level was reliably hit each week from the end of May through to the final week of December. In contrast, during 2020 prices of $200 or above have only been achieved at a third of the sales since May and usually only by a handful of pens. This reflects the lack of export markets that processors have for heavy lamb cuts – heavy lambs are only desirable to keep plant throughput up (i.e. to cover fixed plant costs) – so buyers are motivated to avoid these if other options are available. At current auction prices, margins are tight for processors and they will be looking to reduce the rates they pay as much as they can in the short term. That will see downwards pressure applied to prices promptly if they can secure enough supply. With this in mind, any prime lambs should be making a trip to the sale sooner rather than later, particularly as heavier carcass weights will become a problem for processors as production begins for the Christmas trade, whose specifications reward a lighter framed animal.
SI prime lamb median
The 14-day outlook locks in what we already pretty much knew: spring weather has arrived early. The days are, generally, milder than normal and rainfall recently has been back to normal in dry areas (like Auckland). However, the theme over the next 14 days is to transition away from low pressure and to be in the halfway mark for the next week (windier westerlies). But high pressure returns into early next week, especially northern areas, encouraging more southern westerlies.
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The bulk of the wet weather coming up will be in western areas of both islands but the low on Monday to kick off this week. We will see some eastern wet weather for a time too. Keep up to date with our online rainfall accumulation maps here: www.farmersweekly. co.nz/weather – updated twice daily.
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