3 M bovis eradication plan tipped Vol 17 No 21, May 28, 2018
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Farmers’ delight Hugh Stringleman
F
hugh.stringleman@nzx.com
M Co Y S m TE e R S I a nd Y C TE s R F 4 ee u E E 6 s K at
ONTERRA’S farmers are delighted with its $7/ kg milksolids opening forecast for next season but the co-op’s dividend this financial year has been slashed. Six years after declaring a Fonterra following his strategy could pay both a high milk price and a good dividend in the same season, chief executive Theo Spierings will depart without that achievement. Only two months ago the interim results included a dividend guidance of 25-35c/ share but the board has cut that expectation to 15-20c, compared with 40c paid last year. After posting a net loss in the first half Spierings said he expected earnings to be weighted in the second half but that didn’t happen. “The earnings challenge that comes with the higher milk price is compounded by the timing and significance of this particular increase,” Spierings said. “It has been rapid and late in the year, making it difficult for these higher input costs to flow through into our sales for this financial year. “We can see our sales margins are not where they need to be at this point in the year to achieve our original earnings forecast.” He cited stronger competition in China’s food service market and falling sales volumes of dairy foods in Australia and New
Zealand, both new and unsettling causes. Abnormal items, the $183 million Danone settlement and the $405m Beingmate investment impairment, along with the sales headwinds affected the gearing ratio. It is now expected to be above the target 40-45% range. It was 51.6% on January 31. In this season’s payout farmers gained about 10c/kg when Fonterra increased the milk price by 20c to $6.75 but took 10-15c off the forecast dividend.
New Zealand farmers get the lift straight away. Earl Rattray Farmer Total forecast payout is now $6.90-$6.95, the third highest in the past decade, Wilson said. Should the $7/kg 2019 milk price forecast eventuate, the average milk price for the decade of the 2010s will be $6.20 versus an average of $4.20 in the previous decade, not adjusted for inflation. ASB rural economist Nathan Penny said Fonterra is being bullish with its opening forecast about 50c higher than most market commentators. He was more cautious, factoring in some lift in NZ milk production that will weigh against world product prices and some possible strengthening of the NZ dollar later this year.
Penny also pointed out the average movement from opening forecast to final price is $1.50. In May 2014 Fonterra opened with $7 and ended the 2015 season with $4.40. AgriHQ dairy analyst Amy Castleton also predicted a $7 opening in early May after running her computer model with the futures prices, the latest Global Dairy Trade price and a US70c exchange rate. Former Fonterra director Earl Rattray, Otorohanga, said he is very pleased to see strong world prices fully reflected in next season’s forecast, something he had been able to verify for himself with the AgriHQ milk price calculator. “NZ farmers get the lift straight away but dairy farmers in other countries do not have our transparency and their processing companies are more likely to take a boost in profit.” Share broker First NZ Capital rerated the FSF units from neutral to underperforming and cut the 12-month target price from $6.12 to $5.09. FCNZ research head Arie Dekker said the mounting concerns include earnings from value-add business that are inverse to the milk price, the poor proposition for Fonterra farmers to hold shares, continued loss of market share and environmental restrictions on milk growth. They could flow on to Fonterra’s already vulnerable capital structure and he could not see any signs from the company of introspection or change of direction. “The poor experience for
UNFULFILLED? Fonterra chief executive Theo Spierings will leave without achieving a a high milk price and good dividend in the same year.
outside investors since Fonterra listed will have them questioning whether it is worth being a liquidity provider for Trading Among Farmers,” he said. Dividends, at 10 to 25c, were low in three of the six financial years with TAF and there is no upwards trend. Fonterra chairman John Wilson
Hot price offer.
said the co-operative’s job is to maximise the total available for payout and the structure of the Milk Price Model delivers the milk price and earnings. “These are not decisions by the board and management and we understand how frustrating and disappointing it is for shareholders and unit holders.”
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