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FARMERS WEEKLY – farmersweekly.co.nz – September 28, 2020
Pulse
WEATHER Soil Moisture
An explosive bombogenesis (known as a weather bomb) developed over the weekend and peaks in depth on Monday, well south of New Zealand. The low was between Tasmania and Fiordland on Saturday with central air pressure of around 982hPa. Monday should be near 930hPa, about 1000km south-east of NZ. It is a major storm and will dredge up bitterly cold air from well over Antarctica’s ice shelf. This is the most significant Antarctic blast so far in 2020 – but due to the low being so far away, it means mostly southern NZ will be affected – especially Southland, Otago, the West Coast and Canterbury’s high country Monday/Tuesday when it peaks. Mild westerlies return nationwide by the end of this week with more gales.
Reliable cattle an insurance policy
24/09/2020
Reece Brick reece.brick@globalhq.co.nz
Source: NIWA Data
Highlights
Wind
Colder/windier S to SW winds on Monday and Tuesday – wind warnings are likely. Winds ease for at time mid to late week, but then westerly gales kick in for the first weekend of October.
Highlights/ Extremes
Temperature Temperatures plummet on Monday/Tuesday in Southland, Otago, Fiordland and Westland. Below 0 wind chills in many main centres and down towards -10C at times for wind chill in exposed areas (Southland, Otago mostly).
14-day outlook
Wild spring is here. This week kicks off with the weather bomb rapidly exploding into life over the Southern Ocean. This will significantly alter our weather pattern for this week, bringing a much colder week to Southland, Otago and surrounds. However, in true spring style, conditions balance back out again with warmer westerlies later in the week. This next surge of westerlies going into October will be windy with gales again returning by this weekend.
A big storm in the Southern Ocean around Monday/ Tuesday will bring severe gales to parts of NZ. It will also produce temperatures that are stressful for newborn livestock – with wind chills in Southland approaching -10C at times on Monday/Tuesday.
7-day rainfall forecast
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Spring has the western lean on rainwise. Those in the west and south-west of both islands will have the most rain, while those in the east and north of both islands lean drier than average yet again.
Weather brought to you in partnership with weatherwatch.co.nz
S
PRING store cattle markets are beginning to get under way in earnest, making it a good time to observe how the lead up to summer may play out. The yearling steer market has undergone a bit of a correction this past fortnight, but in theory it is close to settling. From matching store values to schedules through the past decade, the expected range for yearling beef steers is $3.35-$3.55/ kg in the North Island and $2.95-$3.15/kg for the South Island, through October and November. Only two years deviated significantly below this range, both held back by El Nino forecasts. Yearling bulls have been more varied in spring, but around $2.95-$3.15/kg in the North Island and $2.55-$2.85/kg for the South Island would fit in with usual levels. This would be a slight increase on what is being paid currently. If this was any other year, then all the talk of La Nina may have seen another 20c/kg paid on top of what is quoted above in the North Island due to expected rains through eastern regions. With plenty of uncertainty about autumn beef schedules and current feed levels quite variable throughout the country, it’s difficult to see anyone wanting to get overenthusiastic buying up cattle. La Nina often keeps rain away from the eastern South Island, and anxiousness around this will only hold back store cattle markets there too. Dabbling in the store cattle markets is a
risky game given what is paid is extremely closely tied to New Zealand’s variable weather systems. If this year has shown us anything, it’s that quality and reputation are a very solid insurance policy against market swings, especially if the sale yards are the chosen sale method. Reliability is the big factor for large-scale buyers with the deepest pockets. It’s been common for two almost identical lines of yearling cattle to sell for a $50 per head plus difference, simply because one vendor’s cattle has a proven track record of performing, whereas the other is more of an unknown. This ties in with genetics too. Straight beef bred yearling steers have consistently sold for 40c/kg more through spring than Hereford-Friesian counterparts over the past three years. On a 300kg animal, this is an extra $120/hd. Some of this is related to Angus premiums received at processing time, but the ability for these cattle to withstand tough climates such as drought is key too. This sort of discount extends quite a lot further for any lines which have any obvious Jersey breeding showing – especially when it comes to bulls. Slower growth rates are the obvious drawback of these cattle, but bull finishers often note issues with aggression on crossbred bulls as well. Considering only a third of the national dairy herd is classified as Friesian, almost half being Friesian-Jersey, it is likely these types of cattle will become more dominant on the NZ landscape. Or less dairy beef calves will be reared, therefore increasing our reliance on beef bred cattle. With little evidence of a growing beef herd, it ultimately means a tightening in store cattle supplies going forward.
1yr steer price vs schedule (Oct -Nov) 70
% of schedule
Overview
65 60 55 50 2009
2011
2013 North Island
2015 South Island
2017
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