Global Red Me Set to Remain

16.1% level seen in the pre-pandemic year of 2019 The combination of a relatively tight global beef market and increased trade points to firm beef prices

"China and Hong Kong will be the main drivers, with an expected 1 5% rise of import volumes as they reduce covid restrictions domestically and re-open to overseas tourists and businesspeople While China and Hong Kong are set to collectively account for more than 80% of the net increase in beef imports, tight supply is also projected to boost imports to the USA and Japan, while strong demand in Korea is expected to fuel a further lift in imports despite higher domestic output."

In contrast to the beef sector, the USDA projects global pork output to edge 0 3% higher to 114 1m This would see the recovery from African Swine Fever (ASF) in China and South East Asia continue, taking production almost 20% above its 2020-low However, consumption growth is set to outpace this, requiring a slight increase in global imports

Since China accounts for 48% of world production, just over half of consumption and 21% of imports, it is set to remain an important driver of global pork market conditions A slight rise in imports has been pencilled in; though, at 2 1m tonnes, volumes would remain well below the highs of 2019-21, where shipments had peaked at 5.3m tonnes in 2020.

However, there is considerable uncertainty around the outlook in China, with the persistent market volatility of recent years continuing into 2023 Wholesale pork prices in China doubled between April and October 2022, but then declined by 35% between the beginning of November and late-January, suggesting a marked improvement in supply since the autumn A rebound in imports has contributed to the change in market conditions, with monthly volumes picking up through Q4 2022 and managing to show year-on-year growth in December

Away from China, rising pork production has been forecast in Brazil, Japan, Mexico, the USA and the Philippines in 2023, whereas declines are projected in Canada, South Korea, the EU and the UK However, with a rising cost of living pressuring disposable incomes across much of the world, pork's position as a competitively priced protein has led the USDA to project increased consumption and/or imports in most of these countries and regions

Iain said: "Although China has a stronger foothold on global import demand than before the African Swine Fever Crisis, imports across all other countries are set to be 8% higher this year than in 2018, highlighting that significant opportunities will lie elsewhere "

The USDA forecasts do not cover global lamb market conditions "In the UK lamb sector, production is projected to rise this year as a result of a slower marketing profile of the 2022 lamb crop boosting the hogg carryover At EU level, the EU Commission has forecast a slight uplift in production for 2023 but, with consumption projected to rise by 1%, a 4% lift in imports is modelled, and this should help support UK exports "

Meanwhile, Beef + Lamb New Zealand have revised their expectations for New Zealand lamb production in the October 2022 to September 2023 season due to a poor lambing The lamb crop is estimated to have fallen by 2 6%,