FarmWeek February 1 2010 edition

UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS Extension leaders face a dilemma of how to cut costs in the face of budget cuts yet still provide educational programs. ..............................3

COUNTRY FINANCIAL crop insurance specialist Bob Dewey warns that a crop insurance bargain that doesn’t provide good risk management is no bargain. ................................4

DAIRYMEN WHO pulled key feed additives, such as vitamins and minerals, from their rations last year during a time of low milk prices may pay the price today. .....8

Monday, February 1, 2010

Two sections Volume 38, No. 5

State of the Union 2010

Obama charts small business, export growth

BY MARTIN ROSS

FarmWeek During President Barak Obama’s first State of the Union Address last week, U.S. Rep. Aaron Schock noted a new tone and direction: presidential support for small business, community banks, and free trade and openness toward tax relief and development of nuclear power as a clean energy source.

Noting small towns and rural communities have been hit especially hard by “shuttered” businesses and declining home values, Obama’s annual address to Congress outlined a push for “middle class” tax relief and incentives to help small businesses strive and survive in a struggling economy.

Obama proposed eliminating capital gains taxes on small-business investment and providing Rep. Aaron tax incentives Schock for both large and small businesses to encourage investment in plants and equipment.

FarmWeekNow.com For more on the State of the Union address, go to FarmWeekNow.com.

He set a goal of doubling U.S. exports over the next five years through a National Export Initiative directed toward farmers and small businesses.

Obama argued, “We have to seek new markets aggressively, just as our competitors are,” and pledged to seek a World Trade Organization agreement and “strengthen our trade relations in Asia and with key partners like South Korea, and Panama, and Colombia.”

Schock, a Peoria Republican, noted Korean, Panamanian, and Columbian free trade agreements (FTAs) have languished in Congress over the past year.

He was skeptical of Obama’s plans given what he termed the administration’s support for “trillions and trillions and trillions of new deficit spending” and “draconian tax increases on small businesses” through climate/cap-and-trade and health care proposals.

Schock nonetheless was hopeful Obama could win bipartisan support for his new

agenda if, as he told FarmWeek, he “sticks to the plan he laid out” and can “keep Congress in check with the power of his veto.”

“If he’s serious about changing course, if he’s serious about moving to the middle, if he’s serious about decreasing spending, passing trade agreements to put people to work in our state, if he’s serious about cutting taxes

on small businesses to incentivize growth and entrepreneurialism and risk-taking, if he’s serious about finding more domestically produced energy with nuclear (development) and offshore (petroleum) exploration, I stand ready to help,” Schock said.

Even then, Illinois Farm Bureau President Philip Nelson sees a crucial “overarching concern” — “What do we do

with the budget?”

He questioned how Congress can pay for a proposed $150 billion jobs measure and business tax relief amid an anticipated $1.35 trillion 2010 budget deficit, when Obama proposes a three-year freeze on federal spending that wouldn’t begin until 2011.

See Obama, page 2

WAITING FOR SPRING?

Mason County Farm Bureau Young Leader Chairman Jeff Hackman looks over 10 acres of soybeans that he has been unable to combine near Havana where the watertable is very high. Hackman sank down about two inches as he walked across the saturated field last week. Hackman also has 10 acres of corn that was left in the field after rain forced him and his father, Ron, to stop harvest in late November. (Photo by Ken Kashian)

Periodicals: Time Valued

IPPA takes proactive approach to antibiotics issue

BY DANIEL GRANT FarmWeek

Members of the Illinois Pork Producers Association (IPPA) want to tell their side of the story when it comes to the ongoing debate about the use of antibiotics in swine production.

IPPA last week sent a letter to members of the Illinois media that provides facts about pork production and a list of experts who can discuss the issue.

“The idea is that when our opponents come out with a story, they (members of the

media) know who to contact for the other side of the story,” said Phil Borgic, IPPA president and a pork producer from Montgomery CounPhil Borgic ty.

Borgic believes some recent news coverage of the antibiotics debate has been one-sided and has not accurately portrayed the use of antibiotics in swine production.

The IPPA letter states that

FarmWeek on the web: FarmWeekNow.com

87 percent of animal antibiotics are used to keep animals healthy by treating, preventing, and controlling diseases.

The remaining 13 percent of antibiotics, which are made up of compounds never used in human therapy or used only topically in people and are not associated with resistance, are to enhance production.

The IPPA letter also emphasized the fact that licensed veterinarians work with producers to make decisions on the selection and use of antibiotics, which are approved by the Food and Drug Administration.

“We are committed to producing safe food while embracing an ethical obligation to the care and well-being of our animals,” the IPPA letter stated.

“Antibiotics are an important tool to keep our animals healthy and our food supply safe.”

In fact, some studies suggest animals that are sick at some point in their lives have higher incidences of foodborne pathogens on their carcasses.

However, legislation recently introduced in the U.S. House of Representatives would ban See Antibiotics, page 4

Illinois Farm Bureau®on the web: www.ilfb.org

FarmWeek Page 2 Monday, February 1, 2010

Quick Takes FARMER’S RIGHTS UPHELD — A Sangamon County pork producer may seek damages from a resident group that sued him, following Illinois Supreme Court action last week. The Supreme Court denied the RochesterBuckhart Action Group’s request to appeal a Fourth District Appellate Court decision that Robert Young of Rochester had the right to recover damages.

In 2006, the resident group obtained a preliminary injunction temporarily stopping construction of Young’s facility. That later was reversed. Last year, the Appellate Court ruled Young could seek damages for the construction delay.

SOY SUPPORT — Last week, the American Soybean Association (ASA) backed Sen. Lisa Murkowski’s (R-Alaska) “resolution of disapproval“ seeking to block U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulation of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (GHG) under the federal Clean Air Act. An EPA “endangerment finding” justifies greenhouse reporting, permitting, and other possible new regulations purportedly to protect public health. ASA argues EPA should not regulate GHGs under existing air quality policy and that unilateral U.S. action will erode global competitiveness with negligible impact on global climate.

“The EPA rule itself claims to establish only a weak, indirect link between greenhouse gases and public health and welfare, going so far as to admit there are uncertainties over the net, direct health impacts of the greenhouse gases it is attempting to regulate,” ASA President Rob Joslin said.

China and India, two of the world’s largest GHG emitters, continue to reject verifiable CO2 reduction measures, ASA noted.

HSUS UNDER EXAMINATION — An article published in the journal of the University of Richmond’s School of Law takes a tough look at the Humane Society of the United States (HSUS).

The article, published in Juris Publici, calls into question the organization’s advertising and fundraising efforts and contrasts that to how it actually spends the money it is donated. The article was written by Richmond law student John Dillard.

“For less than $1 a day, it seems like a common sense move for a pet lover with disposable income to contribute to the HSUS,” Dillard’s article states.

“Who doesn’t like the idea of an organization dedicated to rescuing animals from neglect? There is one minor detail left out of these commercials. The Humane Society of the United States is not a large network of animal shelters, as it would have you to believe.

“In fact, the HSUS does not own, operate, or lease a single animal shelter in our country,” the article continued.

“Instead, it is primarily a special-interest lobby that is clever and shrewd enough to capitalize on the good name of local ‘humane societies’ that actually do the good work of taking in strays and finding suitable adoptive homes for unwanted pets.”

(ISSN0197-6680) Vol. 38 No. 5

February 1, 2010

Dedicated to improving the profitability of farming, and a higher quality of life for Illinois farmers.

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THE ECONOMY

Economist: Rural economy still prone to larger forces

BY MARTIN ROSS FarmWeek

The rural economy may represent something of an oasis in the current recession, at least as rural bankers see it.

However, University of Illinois farm finance specialist Paul Ellinger warns no farmer or community is an island.

While rural institutions were largely on the sidelines of the financial fracas that led to the economic downturn, rural Illinois continues to be influenced by forces “domestically, internationally, and locally,“ he argued.

A new survey indicates an increase in economic confidence since December among rural bankers in Illinois and 10 other Midwest/Plains states. Housing prices have “started to turn the corner,” inventories are rebuilding, and “there’s a lot of cash out there at the consumer level and the corporate level,” awaiting recovery, Ellinger said.

Forty-one percent of bankers surveyed reported no change in farmland prices over the past six months, while 31 percent reported price declines and one in 10 said farmland prices actually had risen by more than 5 percent. In addition, the survey‘s “new hiring“ index rose from 33.4 in December to 40.1 — the highest jump since July 2008.

But study organizer and Creighton University economist Ernie Goss stressed that index has held below 50 for 25 months. Twenty-three percent of

U.S. home mortgages remain in a negative equity situation, Ellinger noted.

Uncertainty on federal policies and “economic weakness among Main Street businesses linked to the farm sector” continue to weigh on the rural economy, Goss maintained. And “the home consumer” — the producer’s customer — is “still feeling a little bit of pain,” Ellinger said.

“We can’t isolate ourselves from the general economy, and Illinois can’t necessarily be isolated from the national economy,“ he said. “We‘re still at an economic time where things are really not that strong. Twenty-six million people are either unemployed or underemployed.”

One economic impact yet to be fully felt is the commercial real estate market, which, unlike home mortgages, saw more investment from regional or smaller banks. Ellinger thus sees that impact being more geographically isolated.

Further, aggregate ag debt is low relative to other sectors, he said. But Ellinger also noted community banks don’t have “the tools to protect themselves quite as well as a Citibank,” and margins have been hit by new Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. fees.

“If they’re giving fixed-rate operating loans for a year at a certain level, and interest rates were to go up — and I can just about assure you they will — they could be exposed,” Ellinger said. “If they get hit with a margin squeeze, we could have issues with profitability.”

Credit-less biodiesel sales ‘won’t last forever’ Quick action is vital to bringing the biodiesel industry out of market “limbo,” a biofuels market specialist advises.

In his State of the Union address, President Obama argued “providing incentives for energy efficiency and clean energy are the right thing to do for our future.“ But Congress allowed a $1-per-gallon biodiesel blenders tax credit strongly linked to industry growth to expire Jan. 1.

The American Soybean Association and the National Biodiesel Board last week lobbied U.S. House and Senate

leaders to expedite a retroactive extension of the credit.

GROWMARK renewable fuels specialist Mark Dehner told FarmWeek Congress’ delay has generated “lots of uncertainty” among biodiesel producers and marketers.

He sees guarded industry optimism that lawmakers will restore the incentive “when they have time to work on it,” but warns “this industry’s looking at a really severe impact” if they fail to act soon.

Credit extension is crucial within the next 60 days, as fuel suppliers contract spring diesel, he said.

“This time of year, on the ag side, there’s not a lot of fuel movement,” Dehner related.

“We’re not seeing a high degree of demand, anyway. We took a position in the marketplace and were able to fill some storage with the product pre-Jan. 1. So we’re still able to market a product that has the tax credit factored into it.

“But that won’t last forever.

None of the suppliers or producers out there is willing to do any long-term commitments until they see what the certainties or uncertainties are going to be.” — Martin Ross

Obama Continued from page 1 Obama offered a nod to Main Street with a proposal to allocate $30 billion of “Wall Street“ bank bailout repayments to help community banks “give small businesses the credit they need to stay afloat.“ Beyond capital gains relief, Obama proposed a new tax credit aimed at small businesses that hire new workers or raise wages.

Schock argued regulatory relief also will be needed to enable smaller banks (see above). And Nelson was uncertain where farm businesses and ag land sales would fit into Obama’s capital gains proposal.

Obama continued to push health care policies that “give small businesses and uninsured Americans a chance to choose an affordable health care plan in a competitive market“ and require plans to cover preventive care.

Citing Democrat upsets in Massachusetts Senate and New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races, Schock argued Obama would secure health reforms only if they conform to “mainstream America’s views.”

In addition, Nelson was critical of Obama’s adherence to passage of a “comprehensive energy and cli-

mate bill” similar to the House-approved, Farm Bureau-opposed greenhouse cap-and-trade plan.

He said he was pleased by Obama’s support for investment in advanced biofuels and clean coal technology and recognition of the need for “a new generation of safe, clean nuclear power plants,” but said the president kept his options “very open” regarding offshore oil/gas development.

Nelson, who chairs the American Farm Bureau Federation Trade Advisory Committee, commended Obama’s call for expanded export growth. He urged producers to “strike while the iron is hot” in jumpstarting the domestic trade agenda.

“There’s a lot of market out there for us,“ Schock said. “Panama is expanding its canal right now, which would be huge for Caterpillar and John Deere in our area. Colombia already buys 80 percent of its wheat from American farmers.

“Canada has entered into a trade agreement with them, and will begin stealing some of our market share if we don’t follow suit. There are a lot of reasons for us to pass those trade agreements. It will mean real jobs this year, both in manufacturing and in agriculture,“ said Schock.

FarmWeek Page 3 Monday, February 1, 2010

STATE

U of I Extension prepares for cuts, IFB supports two-prong schedules meetings for public input approach to redistricting

BY KAY SHIPMAN FarmWeek

Given a grim financial outlook, University of Illinois Extension leaders face a dilemma — how to cut costs yet still provide educational programs.

After discussing options with Extension staff, Extension leaders will listen to the public’s ideas at 10 meetings in February and March.

A final plan to cope with projected cuts of between $2 million and $5 million next year has yet to be completed; however, Bob Hoeft, interim Extension director, said he wants to maintain a system that provides programs to meet local needs. Programs for young people and 4-H will be a reorganization priority, Hoeft noted.

For fiscal year 2009, Extension had 800 employees and a budget of $65 million (see accompanying chart). Funding sources were mostly federal, state, and local governments.

Current money-saving ideas include reducing administrative costs and office rental expenses. Hoeft said Extension is investigating forming more multi-county offices. At the same time, the number of Extension educators in multicounty offices would be expected to increase.

County-generated, statematch funding “makes a big difference in terms of county units wanting to go together.

The match (funding) is very helpful,” said Gary Beaumont, communication specialist with the U of I College of Agricultural, Consumer, and Environmental Sciences.

In the early 1990s, Extension underwent restructuring that resulted in regional education centers and several multicounty and satellite offices

joining traditional county offices.

Elimination of those regional centers and relocating the educators to local offices is another option under consideration, Beaumont said. “If we cut rental costs, then we can keep more people to do (educational) programs,” he added.

After the public meetings, Hoeft said he plans to complete reorganization plans by mid-April and then start implementing them.

Meeting dates, times, and locations are: • Feb. 22, 5 to 7 p.m., Champaign Unit Auditorium, 801 N. Country Fair Drive, Champaign; • Feb. 23, 6:30 to 8:30 p.m., John A. Logan College, Hancock Conference Center, 700 College Road, Carterville; • Feb. 25, 2 to 4 p.m.,

Federal EPA orders Illinois dairy to stop unauthorized discharges U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Region 5, based in Chicago, last week ordered Westridge Dairy LLC, Red Bud, to comply with the Clean Water Act and prevent stormwater runoff from several facility locations into a nearby creek.

EPA also ordered Westridge Dairy to apply to the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency (IEPA) for a National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permit.

In late April 2009, EPA inspectors conducted an inspection of the Westridge Dairy, which had about 700 mature cows.

The agency discovered the facility did not have a state NPDES permit for Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations (CAFOs).

The farm is located in the Kaskaskia River watershed in Southwestern Illinois.

The federal agency reported stormwater runoff from a concrete manure storage pad, a feedlot ditch, and a mortality pile was running into a stream that is a tributary to the Prairie Branch of Horse Creek. — Kay Shipman

DeKalb Unit Office, 1350 W. Prairie Drive, Sycamore; • Feb.26, 2 to 4 p.m., Effingham Unit Office, 1209 Wenthe Drive, Effingham; • March 1, 7 to 9 p.m., Okawville Community Club Building, 511 S. Hanover St., Okawville; • March 2, 6 to 8 p.m., Kane Unit Office, 535 S. Randall Rd., St. Charles; • March 4, 1 to 3 p.m., McDonough Unit Auditorium, 3022 W. Jackson, Macomb; • March 4, 6 to 8 p.m., Bureau Unit Office, 850 Thompson St., Princeton; • March 9, 6 to 8 p.m., U of I Extension Center, Illini Auditorium, Illinois State Fairgrounds, 1101 E. Sangamon Ave., Springfield; and • March 12, 10 a.m. to noon, Countryside Center, 6438 Joliet Rd., Countryside.

County Farm Bureau leaders are being encouraged to help put an initiative on the November ballot to change the method used to draw state legislative districts, based on action by the Illinois Farm Bureau Board of Directors.

At their January meeting, IFB board members accepted the recommendations of IFB’s Legislative Redistricting Work Group.

The group recommended IFB support the Illinois Fair Map Amendment initiative, which seeks to put a proposal to amend the state Constitution before voters.

That proposal would create a nine-member bipartisan commission to draw legislative districts for General Assembly members only.

The Redistricting Working Group also recommended IFB continue working on a legislative constitutional amendment to change the method used to draw legislative districts.

“The biggest thing Farm Bureau is looking at is the way districts have been drawn in the past and the representation,” said IFB Director Terry Pope, chairman of the group.

‘We want to get “We want to get away from away from the the politics of drawing dispolitics of drawtricts and more into representation,” Pope continued. “Our ing districts and members want good governmore into repreing. They want districts that sentation.’ are compact and contiguous.

They want election races that are not predetermined by par— Terry Pope chairman IFB Legislative ty affiliation, but by merit of Redistricting Working Group the candidates.”

The Fair Map initiative seeks to collect 500,000 signatures of registered voters by mid-April to get the proposal on the November ballot.

County Farm Bureau leaders will be encouraged to circulate petitions among Farm Bureau members and in their communities, Pope said.

More information and petitions are available online at {www.ilfairmap.com}. County Farm Bureaus have received information about the initiative.

As for working with the legislature on a proposal, a legislative-approved amendment could be broader than a voter initiative that is limited in scope by the state Constitution, explained Kevin Semlow, IFB director of state legislation.

To be approved, the map would need an affirmative vote from at least three-fifths of state lawmakers for it to be forwarded to the voters for their approval.

IFB would like a legislative amendment to consider the redistricting process for both the General Assembly and congressional districts. It wants the process to be open and to allow citizen groups to submit maps.

The public also should be able to review and comment on any proposed map, IFB believes. — Kay Shipman

Illinois high-speed rail on $1.2 billion track Quinn, Durbin announce grant Gov. Pat Quinn and U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin, a Springfield Democrat, flew around the state Friday to announce Illinois is to receive more than $1.2 billion for a high-speed rail corridor between Chicago and St. Louis.

The state grant includes $1.1 billion for corridor improvements along a 284-mile route between Chicago and St. Louis.

On parts of the route, passenger trains are expected to travel up to 110 mph.

The improvements will include an overhaul of track,

signal systems, and existing stations as well as implementation of state-of-the-art train control technology to improve safety.

In addition, the state will receive $1.25 million to conduct an environmental impact study for a second track along the same route.

Illinois was one of three states to receive at least $1 billion of the available $8 billion in federal stimulus dollars for high-speed rail.

“We appreciate the confidence of President Obama to bring high-speed rail to Illinois,” Quinn said. The project will create about 6,000 jobs in

the state, the governor noted.

“Investing $1.2 billion into improving our rail system is going to mean more jobs — jobs for today and jobs for the future,” Durbin said.

Illinois’ grant includes $133 million to build the Englewood Flyover on Chicago’s south side, a project to address a large rail bottleneck. It will eliminate significant delays for commuter trains, Amtrak trains, and freight trains.

The project is estimated to be completed by 2014.

The Federal Railroad Administration received 259 applications from 37 states and the District of Columbia.

FarmWeek Page 4 Monday, February 1, 2010

GOVERNMENT

Insurance ‘bargains’ available for savvy producers

BY MARTIN ROSS FarmWeek

In the wake of 2009 production challenges and continued economic concerns, many Illinois growers will be seeking a good bargain in risk management.

The opportunities are there this year, including an expanded biotechnology endorsement (BE) for growers considering a new eight-trait GMO corn “stack” and incentives for producers who insure countywide “enterprise” units.

But Country Financial crop insurance specialist Bob Dewey emphasizes that a bargain that doesn’t provide good risk management ultimately is no bargain.

For example, he notes premium discounts for revenue assurance (RA) and crop revenue coverage (CRC) policyholders who opt to cover crops on an enterprise unit basis.

Basic units include all acres a farmer owns or cash rents and/or share rents with a different landowner within a county, while optional units break owned or cash rent acres down by county section and/or practice (i.e., irrigated vs. non-irrigated corn).

Enterprise units combine individual corn or soybean acres within a county regardless of ownership.

“If you have basic or optional units with separate

guarantees, you could suffer a loss on one unit and not on another and still get paid,” Dewey related. “With the enterprise unit, you might have a loss in one area and an average yield on another, and when you combine them, it throws you out of a loss situation.

“It’s asking the farmer to accept more risk. But if his variability of yields is not great from one area to another, the enterprise unit can work really well.”

BIOTECH BENEFITS Meanwhile, BE provides discounted premiums for producers who plant selected herbicide- and insect-resistant multiple-trait corn varieties in least 75 percent of a covered unit.

This season, the endorsement has been extended to Monsanto’s SmartStax, which combines eight herbicide tolerance/insect resistance traits.

While producers planting BE-eligible triple or quadruple stack traits must establish a 20 percent-per-farm non-Bt refuge to ensure continued insect resistance to GMO corn, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has approved a mere 5 percent non-Bt refuge for SmartStax plantings, giving growers more leeway in complying with simultaneous endorsement planting requirements.

BE discounts vary depending on the policy purchased and crop coverage level. A grower

who opts for lower coverage levels may receive a 50-centper-acre discount; producers with higher “buy up” coverages could see a $3-$4 reduction.

BE discounts also have been expanded to irrigated corn acres, potentially benefiting additional producers in Mason, White, Rock Island, and other counties in which irrigation is used.

POLICY PICKS The Risk Management Agency (RMA) has attempted to streamline the system by “deleting” certain policies in areas with low sales. As a result, sweet corn yield coverage will be unavailable in Ford, Iroquois, and Vermilion counties, and county-based yield-based group risk plan (GRP) or group risk income protection (GRIP) policies will no longer be sold

in Lake or Pope counties.

RA and CRC policies tentatively will be offered for the last time this year as RMA prepares to consolidate individual and county revenue-based products into a single common policy.

Either RA or CRC may be cheaper at various coverage levels in individual counties, and the availability of either a spring or a fall harvest price guarantee under RA (CRC automatically triggers the higher of either) underlines the need for expert guidance in policy selection, Dewey stressed.

CRC uses an October average price, RA a November average. “Historically, there’s no way to pick which one of those is going to work best,” Dewey said.

Premiums for plans with a fall option are higher because

they enable growers to capture the higher of spring or harvest prices, and he argues “a sound grain marketing program“ adds value to coverage.

Dewey offers one definitive recommendation. Basic “CAT” yield coverage once provided producers an inexpensive option for complying with farm program insurance requirements.

But even with the new supplemental revenue (SURE) standing disaster program tied to individual coverage, annual CAT fees jumped from $100 per crop per county to $300 last year.

“If you’re going to pay $300, you might as well buy something that’s going to do something for you,” Dewey advised. “Get something that’s meaningful, buy up higher coverage levels, and really get some good risk protection.”

Biotech endorsement yields $50 million in savings The crop insurance biotechnology endorsement (BE) resulted in significant farmer and taxpayer savings in 2009, USDA Risk Management Agency data indicate.

U.S. corn farmers participating in the program saved more than $50 million in premiums in 2009, while taxpayers saw more than $75 million in “risk subsidy savings,“ according to a report released by Monsanto.

The endorsement offers reduced premiums for growers of irrigated and non-irrigated corn who plant qualifying multiple-trait GMO hybrids this spring in Illinois and 11 other cen-

tral-U.S. states. The initial pilot biotech yield endorsement program was approved in 2007 for 2008 crops.

Producer premiums under the 2009 BE program were reduced an average $4.24 per acre vs. $3 per acre in 2008, the Monsanto report estimated. To be eligible for the premium reduction, at least 75 percent of total acreage in an insured unit must be planted to eligible multi-trait hybrids.

For a list of stacks that qualify for the endorsement, visit {www.rma.usda.gov/policies/bye.html} on the web.

Congress seeks answer to growing carp concerns It’s the fish that’s mobilized Congress, and if Midwest interests can’t corral the Asian carp, lawmakers suggest they may be able to commercialize it into a manageable commodity.

Last week, a dozen-plus congressmen sought $20 million for efforts to prevent establishment of the invasive carp in Great Lakes waters where it could threaten commercial fishing. Proposed alternatives include use of chemical or biological controls or even

market-based solutions.

The severity of the problem in Illinois is the big question, Illinois Department of Natural Resources (IDNR) Rivers and Streams Program chief Jim Mick told FarmWeek.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers continues to assess the carp’s impact on native species: It daily consumes as much as 40 percent of its weight in microscopic plankton that also sustains shad,

Antibiotics Continued from page 1 farmers from feeding antibiotics to animals prior to the outbreak of sickness or disease in the animals.

We would not be able to prevent illness” and, in fact, “producers could end up using more antibiotics to treat sick pigs if the proposed legislation became law in the U.S., Borgic said.

IPPA also reported “there is no conclusive scientific evidence that antibiotics used in food animals have a significant impact on the effectiveness of antibiotics in people.”

Borgic said he hopes these points help consumers understand the issue and are considered by lawmakers before any new regulations are passed.

“We work hard every day to produce a quality product that is safe, wholesome, and a great value,” he added.

“By doing this, we sometimes forget other people are targeting us (in agriculture) or they don’t understand our business. It’s our job to tell them about our business.”

smallmouth buffalo, and other smaller fish.

That threatens bass, catfish, and other sports-food fish up the food chain. And the threat‘s not limited to river channels: Adams County farmer/drainage official Sam Zumwalt said carp have emerged in ditches that support other fish.

“We see a lot of Asian carp in certain parts of the river system, but we still see relatively good fish populations present in those areas,” Mick said. “It will make you sweat a bit when you start seeing (carp) spawning occurring. Up north, we haven’t seen that spawning, but it doesn’t mean they can’t get into one of these water bodies and find the right conditions.”

IDNR used rotenone, an aquatic pesticide, in an attempt to control carp in the ship canal between Lake Michigan and Lockport, but that affected other species as well, and Zumwalt questions its use on an expanded basis.

Mick stressed rotenone treatments are a “last resort,“ used in the canal following

attempts at net fishing and “electrofishing” — use of jolts to stun the carp.

Sen. Dick Durbin, a Springfield Democrat, notes colleagues are divided over whether to close Chicago shipping locks that could allow the carp to spread into Lake Michigan. U.S. Rep. David Camp (R-Mich.) is seeking closure following U.S. Supreme Court rejection

of a similar proposal.

One potential alternative is development of new markets for Asian carp. Louisiana fisheries are selling it for food under the alias “silverfin.“ Rockford scientist John Holden has test-run a Havana plant that processes carp into a feed supplement and Omega-3 oil and explored the idea of several Illinois-Upper Mississippi river plants. — Martin Ross

The Asian carp

FarmWeek Page 5 Monday, February 1, 2010

EMERGING ISSUES

Ag sector highlighted on state job, career website

BY KAY SHIPMAN FarmWeek

Individuals seeking ag-related jobs, agriculture employers wanting to publicize open positions, and students interested in agricultural careers may turn to a Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity (DCEO) website.

The addition of a new ag sector to an existing website was an effort to evaluate agriculture’s status in Illinois, to show the diversity of ag careers, and to highlight universities that offer degrees related to those careers, said Mike Baker with DCEO’s workforce development.

Baker discussed DCEO programs and services during the Vision for Illinois Agricul-

ture meeting last week in Bloomington.

“The idea was not to spend

‘The idea was not to spend time recreating the wheel, but to fo c u s o n t h i n g s that are unique to agriculture.’

— Mike Baker Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity

time recreating the wheel, but to focus on things that are

unique to agriculture,” Baker added.

The website, Illinois WorkNet, previously provided information about the state’s manufacturing, health care, transportation, and information technology sectors. Agriculture information was added four months ago.

DCEO has been promoting the website to expand its use, and Baker encouraged agriculture leaders to help raise awareness of the site and its potential uses.

Baker also encouraged ag leaders and entities to supply information.

In addition to information about jobs and career opportunities, businesses also may post ag-related research and

New cemetery law adds rules, oversight Gov. Pat Quinn recently signed legislation to regulate cemeteries and their operation. The tougher regulations were in response to the scandal at Burr Oak Cemetery near Alsip in Cook County.

The law, which will take effect March 1, will set up regulations for all cemeteries, including rural ones.

At the state level, the Illinois comptroller will transfer all cemetery duties and responsibilities to the Illinois Department of Financial and Professional Regulation’s division of professional regulation.

A new cemetery board will be appointed to develop the

rules to implement the new law.

The law requires more detailed reporting and record keeping about cemetery burial plots.

Cemetery employees also will be required to be licensed, and disciplinary penalties will be imposed for those who violate the rules.

The law also will require background checks for cemetery managers and employees. If further lays out provisions for partial or full exemptions from requirements for cemeteries based on the type of cemetery and the number of interments.

It is anticipated the new law

Extension seeking applicants for on-farm research mini-grant The University of Illinois Extension is seeking organic and sustainable farmers with weed problems for on-farm research.

About 20 participants are sought.

Last year, 15 Illinois farmers participated in the project, according to Dan Anderson, U of I Extension specialist. “We visited their farms, helped them identify weed-management issues, and developed some strategies to help solve the problem,” Anderson said.

Midwestern organic and sustainable farmers have reported managing perennial weeds without chemicals is one of their most difficult challenges. Anderson is seeking farmers interested in learning methods to manage perennial weeds in vegetable or grain crops.

Eligible participants currently must be farming in Illinois or in neighboring states within close proximity of the Illinois border.

Each applicant will receive an information packet with several ideas for integrated management of perennial weeds in crop and vegetable farming. Participants will be selected from the applicant pool and will be contacted by the on-farm research coordinator to develop and finalize plans for their on-farm project.

Each participant will receive $500 per year of participation.

He or she also will receive the latest research-based information on managing perennial weeds without chemicals and one-on-one help to develop a viable on-farm research project.

To apply, go online to {http://asap.sustainability.uiuc.edu/ org-ag/}, scroll down and click on “2010 Mini-Grants! Apply NOW,” or contact Dan Anderson by calling 217-621-7974 or emailing him at aslan@illinois.edu.

and rules, including all the licenses and reporting, will not be put in place for at least a year.

Anyone with specific questions about the law may turn to two information sources.

Contact the Division of Professional Regulation, which will have oversight of cemeteries, at 312-814-1467.

Another source is the Illinois Cemetery and Funeral Home Association at 866-758-7731, e-mail icfha@hotmail.com, or go online to {www.icfha.org}.

development efforts, he noted.

“This site is meant to be a changing tool,” he said. “It is meant to be an all-encompassing tool to be used by many people.”

To find ag-related information, go online to {www.illinoisworknet.com} and click on the “Key Sectors” icon.

Then click on the green “Agriculture Food and Natural Resources” icon in the upper right corner.

Currently, information about the Vision for Illinois Agriculture is posted on the site. DCEO will rotate information that highlights different ag entities during the year, according to Baker.

Vision developing work plan Members of the Vision for Illinois Agriculture are developing a plan of work to move forward with a statewide strategy for the agriculture and food industry.

Leaders representing many sectors of the agriculture industry heard progress reports during a daylong session last week at the Illinois Farm Bureau Building in Bloomington.

Vision leaders are interested in identifying different entities that will contribute time and financial resources and become involved with specific ideas.

Two committees of Vision members — a Business Climate Committee and a Workforce Development Committee — have been working on issues in their respective areas.

The Vision for Illinois Ag has the following goals: for Illinois to rank among the top three states nationally in crop and animal production and in food manufacturing, and to be one of the top two states for bio-based products, technology, and services. — Kay Shipman

FarmWeek Page 8 Monday, February 1, 2010

COMMODITIES

Farmers advised to weigh all tillage options this spring

BY DANIEL GRANT FarmWeek

Farmers have a lot to consider when it comes to making spring tillage decisions.

The extremely wet fall not only delayed harvest and canceled many plans for fall tillage, but the conditions also contributed to what could be some severe compaction problems this growing season.

“The biggest challenge we’re dealing with (for the upcoming planting season) is the compaction we created” Doug Thompson during harvest, said Doug Thompson, a Logan County farmer and certified crop adviser, who discussed the issue last week at the Illinois Tillage Seminar in Peoria. “It was a messy year, no doubt about it.”

Thompson reported combines and grain carts in a

worst-case scenario can create soil compaction at depths of up to three feet.

He also noted many farmers who use strip-till were unable to build strips last fall and may be unsure how to proceed this spring.

“We need to keep our options open” and make tillage decisions on a fieldby-field basis, Thompson said. “No-till, strip-till, light tillage, and conventional tillage all should be on the table.”

Spring strip-till can be used to break up compaction within the seed bed. Farmers who use this option should make the strips a little more shallow (about 3 to 4 inches), according to Tony Vyn, agronomist at Purdue University.

Tony Vyn But farmers should not apply preplant anhydrous if the soils

aren’t fit, and they also should avoid tilling if the soils remain wet this spring.

“Don’t cause more compaction or tillage pans,” said Vyn, who noted deep ripping this spring probably is not a good idea. He said farmers should be prepared to sidedress nitrogen if the soil conditions don’t support preplant applications.

Farmers can monitor soil conditions by digging into

the topsoil to a depth that would be reached by whatever tillage implement they plan to use. If they pull out a soil sample and can create “worms” by rolling the soil in their hands, then it proba-

bly is too wet to work, according to Vyn. If conditions remain wet this spring, Vyn believes some farmers should consider no-till, particularly for corn following soybeans.

Meanwhile, spring tillage may be a good option for farmers who want to plant corn on corn. And spring tillage may be the best option in fields with a rough seedbed or where the freeze/thaw cycle does not improve surface compaction.

Farmers also should be prepared to switch cropping systems, particularly in fields with severe compaction issues, according to Thompson and Vyn. “Leave the option open to switch to soybeans” Vyn said.

“And don’t ignore early weed control.”

Dairy specialist: Learn from low milk prices Milk prices have rebounded close to breakeven levels, but Mike Hutjens, University of Illinois Extension dairy specialist, believes some producers may not be able to take advantage of the situation.

Hutjens is concerned some producers pulled key feed additives, such as vitamins and minerals, from rations last year as a way Mike Hutjens to save money during a time of low milk prices.

Now, it could take those producers months to regain the full milk production capabilities of their herds.

Hutjens discussed the situation during Illinois Dairy Days held around the state and also in a recent interview with FarmWeek.

“Some additives are very critical to have in there,” Hutjens said of feed rations. “If you pull key additives, you could see more (herd) health problems and maybe reproductive problems.”

Feed additives affect rumen health, feed efficiency, and immune functions of a cow, according to Hutjens.

So his message to producers is “don’t ever give up performance on cows.”

Milk prices recently improved by as much as $6 per hundredweight compared to last year’s lows.

“The good news is milk prices are back close to $16

(per hundredweight), which means we’re close to breakeven,” Hutjens said.

“The bad news is we have a big hole to climb out of.”

Looking ahead, Hutjens predicted the trend toward fewer dairy farmers and larger herd sizes will continue.

Cornell University projected 85 percent of milk in the U.S. will originate from farms with 500 or more cows by 2020. The amount of milk produced nationwide by 500plus cow herds this year was projected to be 63 percent compared to 34 percent in 2000.

“There still are going to be herds with 50 to 100 cows, but their market share is small” and shrinking, Hutjens said.

“We currently have six farms (in Illinois) making products (such as cheese) on the farm, so there’s a niche for that,” he continued. “That may be another aspect to look at.”

Illinois as of last year had a reported 934 dairy farms with an average size of 106 cows per operation. The state, which has a milk deficit, ranked 20th in dairy production.

Hutjens said he is concerned about Illinois’ ability in the future to maintain its dairy infrastructure, such as veterinary services and milk processing plants, due to its low production numbers on a national scale.

He also predicted there will be a greater emphasis on food safety in the future and every dairy producer will need to be certified. — Daniel Grant

FarmWeek Page 9 Monday, February 1, 2010

FROM THE COUNTIES

B

UREAU — The Women’s Committee will sponsor cooking class fundraisers for the Bureau County Farm Bureau Foundation. The classes will be from 6 to 8 p.m. Tuesday, Feb. 16, and Thursday, Feb. 18, at Someone’s in the Kitchen, Princeton. Chef Monika Sudakov, Chestnut Street Inn, will lead the classes. Cost is $40 per class or $50 for both. Call 815-454-2419 or e-mail monikaandjeff@chestnutinn.com for reservations or more information.

• The Members Relations Task Force will sponsor a family night from 5 to 6 p.m. Sunday, Feb. 21, at the Bureau County Metro Center. Included in the evening are open gym, racquetball courts, and swimming. Call the Farm Bureau office by Monday, Feb. 8, for reservations or more information.

OLES — Kevin Rund, Illinois Farm Bureau senior director of local government, will be the speaker at an ag breakfast meeting at 7 a.m.

Thursday, Feb. 11, at the 4H/Extension Building, Coles County Fairgrounds. The topic will be truck regulations. Cost is $6. Call the Coles County Extension office at 345-7034 for reservations or more information.

ANCOCK — Kevin Brooks, University of Illinois Extension farm business management and marketing educator, will discuss farmland leases at 10:30 a.m. Wednesday at the Hancock County Extension office, Carthage. Lunch and materials will be provided.

Cost is $25 per person or $35 per couple. Call 217-357-2150 for reservations or more information.

• Mike Roegge, crop systems educator, will provide an ag update at 10 a.m. Thursday, Feb. 11, at the Towne House Restaurant, Carthage. Call the Extension office at 217-357-2150 by

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Tuesday, Feb. 9, for reservations or more information.

IVINGSTON — Kevin Rund, Illinois Farm Bureau senior director of local government, will be the speaker at an “On the Road” seminar at 7 p.m. Monday, Feb. 15, at the Farm Bureau office. Federal trucking rules will be discussed.

Call the Farm Bureau office at 815-842-1103 or e-mail livcfb@verizon.net for reservations or more information.

ONROE — A Viewpoint meeting will be at 8 a.m. Friday at the Acorn’s.

Breakfast will be served. Call the Farm Bureau office at 9396197 by Wednesday for reservations or more information.

EORIA — John Roach, a marketing consultant, will be the speaker at a meeting at 8 a.m. Tuesday, Feb. 16, at Exposition Gardens, Peoria. Call the Farm Bureau office at 686-7070 for reservations or more information.

• Mike McClelland, a climatologist, along with a financial investment speaker, will present

a program at 8:30 a.m. Thursday, Feb. 18, at the Farm Bureau office. A commodities market update will be given. Call the Farm Bureau office for reservations or more information.

IKE — The Two Rivers Farm Bureau Foundation has the $1,000 Rod Webel Memorial Scholarship available to a Pike County high school senior who is a dependent of a Pike County Farm Bureau member. There is no course of study restriction, but a major in agriculture will be given preference over other majors in the selection process. Applications and selection criteria are available from guidance counselors, the Farm Bureau office, or online at www.pikecfb.org/documents}.

Deadline to return applications is March 31.

• The annual meeting will be at 7 p.m. Wednesday, Feb. 10, at the Farm Bureau auditorium.

Call the Farm Bureau office for more information.

COTT — Two $1,000 scholarships are available to a Bluffs High School and a

Winchester High School senior.

There is no course of study restriction, but a major in agriculture will be given preference over other majors in the selection process. Applications and selection criteria are available from guidance counselors, the Farm Bureau office, or online at {www.scottcfb.org/documents}. Deadline to return applications is March 31.

AYNE — A Stroke Detection Plus screening will be Tuesday at the Farm Bureau office, Fairfield. Members may receive four tests for $90; non-member’s cost will be $125. Call 877-732-8258 for an appointment or more information.

• Noel Vaughan, Country Financial agent, and James Hughes, Country Financial security consultant, will be the speakers on a long-term care meeting at 6 p.m. Tuesday, Feb. 16, at the Farm Bureau office, Fairfield.

Dinner will be served. Call Vaughan at 618-842-2185 for reservations or more information.

INNEBAGO — An information meeting on a trip to Niagara Falls, Toronto, and Michigan will be at 7 p.m. Thursday, Feb. 11, at the Farm Bureau office. The trip will be from Aug. 28 to Sept. 2.

• Farm Bureau will sponsor a bus trip Thursday, Feb. 18, to the Chicago Auto Show. Cost is $24 for members and $27 for non-members. Lunch will be on your own. Call the Farm Bureau office for reservations or more information.

• Dave Zimmerman, local photographer, will show a variety of his pictures at noon Thursday, Feb. 25, at the Farm Bureau office. Lunch will be served. Cost is $14. Call the Farm Bureau office at 815-9620653 by Thursday, Feb. 18, for reservations or more information.

Illinois Farm Bureau GrassRoots Issue Teams (GRITs) recently discussed current issues and forwarded a report to the Illinois Farm Bureau board, which accepted it at the January board meeting.

Included in the report were the following: • The Conservation and Natural Resources Team will develop action plans to address natural resource funding, to expand the State Acres for Wildlife Enhancement program, and to help avoid water quality regulations on agriculture related to nutrients.

• The Crop Production and Trade Team focused on concentration and contract issues.

The team encouraged educational sessions on production

contracts be offered at upcoming meetings. The team also will work with IFB staff on ideas to improve farmer income via trade opportunities.

• The Equine Team recommended restructuring the equine roundtable and rescheduling that meeting in the winter. The team wants to address several issues, including a survey on unwanted horses. The team also recommended proposed policy changes to IFB’s equine agriculture policy. Those recommendations will be forwarded to the 2010 Resolutions Committee for consideration.

• The Livestock and Dairy Team is interested in media training sessions for livestock producers at upcoming conferences.

• The Renewable Resources and Energy Team is interested in public promotions of farmers as renewable energy leaders. The team also wants to educate the general public about the value of renewable fuels and to develop beneficial energy legislation.

• The Risk Management and Farm Programs Team supports the formation of a task force to study issues for the next farm bill. The team also wants to gather additional information about pricing tools for inputs and financial stability of farm input suppliers.

• The Rural Life Team supports creation of a task force to identify trends impacting rural life and communities in Illinois.

One of the goals would be to determine opportunities for

Farm Bureau to help members understand and adapt to changes, such as loss of rural jobs, urban sprawl, and a lack of opportunity for young farmers.

• The Specialty Crops and Labor Team will gather additional information on immigration reform, unemployment insurance, and standardized labeling.

Each team will meet again in February or March to focus on the priority issues identified in its first meeting. The teams will provide their final reports to the IFB board during the board’s April meeting.

For more information on GRITs or how you can have input on the issues they are studying, contact your county Farm Bureau or visit {www.ilfb.org}.

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“From the counties” items are submitted by county Farm Bureau managers. If you have an event or activity open to all members, contact your county manager.

S GrassRoots Issue Teams study challenges, issues

FarmWeek Page 10 Monday, February 1, 2010

PROFITABILITY

Fertilizer market: Lopsided outlook most likely

BY JOE DILLIER

What’s the outlook for fertilizer supplies and prices this spring? It looks as though prices will be firm and supplies snug.

And if fertilizer demand is greater than expected (unexpectedly strong corn acreage, say), then fertilizer supplies most likely will tighten and prices rise quickly.

On the other hand, a sub-

stantial “falling-out-of-bed” of commodity markets generally, and of grain markets in particular, between now and spring likely would lead to good supply availability but only modest downside pressure on prices. That is the outlook in a nutshell — mostly upside for prices, with very limited downside pressure.

Why is the outlook so lopsided? There are a couple of

Illinois Wheat Forum Feb. 15 The Illinois Wheat Association (IWA) will hold its annual winter wheat forum on Monday, Feb. 15.

The event will be at Krieger’s/Holiday Inn Convention Center, which is located off Interstate 57 at Exit 95 in Mt. Vernon.

Exhibits will open and registration will begin at 8 a.m., and the program is from 9 a.m. to 3:30 p.m.

Steve Ebelhar, agronomist at the University of Illinois Dixon Springs Agricultural Center, will lead off the program by discussing the effects of maintaining wheat in rotations and nitrogen management.

Carl Bradley, U of I plant pathologist, will provide an overview of wheat diseases; and Doug Yoder, IFB risk management specialist, will conclude the morning program with an update on the Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) program.

The afternoon session will feature an industry panel discussion about biotech wheat. Darrel Good, U of I Extension marketing specialist, also will provide a crop market outlook.

The registration fee, which includes lunch, is $15 for IWA members and $25 for non-members. Registration will be on site, and certified crop adviser (CCA) credits will be available.

For more information, contact Lowell Lenschow, IWA executive secretary, at 309-557-3662 or e-mail Lenschow@ilfb.org.

A detailed agenda also is available at the IWA website {www.illinoiswheat.org}.

M A R K E T FA C T S

Feeder pig prices reported to USDA*

Weight 10 lbs.

40 lbs.

50 lbs.

Receipts

Range Per Head Weighted Ave. Price $33.76-$49.00 $40.86 $62.00-$67.00 $65.33 n/a n/a This Week Last Week 22,222 22,123 *Eastern Corn Belt prices picked up at seller’s farm

Eastern Corn Belt direct hogs (plant delivered) Carcass Live

(Prices $ per hundredweight) This week Prev. week $62.32 $67.92 $46.12 $50.26

Change -5.60 -4.14

USDA five-state area slaughter cattle price (Thursday’s price) Steers Heifers

This week $83.58 $83.58

Prv. week $84.33 $84.15

Change -0.75 -0.57

CME feeder cattle index — 600-800 Lbs. This is a composite price of feeder cattle transactions in 27 states.

(Prices $ per hundredweight) This week Prev. week Change 96.82 97.22 -0.40

Lamb prices Confirmed lamb and sheep sales This week 552 Last week 576 Last year 350 Wooled Slaughter Lambs: Choice and prime 2-3: 90-110 lb., $115. Good and choice 1-2: 60-90 lbs., $139.

Slaughter Ewes: Utility and good 1-3: $56-$58. Cull and utility 1-2: $56.

Export inspections (Million bushels)

Week ending Soybeans Wheat 01-21-10 42.2 16.9 01-14-10 47.2 9.6 Last year 38.3 16.3 Season total 884.5 528.1 Previous season total 629.1 714.2 USDA projected total 1375 825 Crop marketing year began June 1 for wheat and Sept. 1 for corn and soybeans.

Corn 20.7 31.4 30.8 620.7 621.1 2050

carryover factors that play significant roles in the outlook for spring.

The first carryover factor is the caution instilled in the supply chain from the fertilizer price implosion of late 2008/early Joe Dillier 2009. That whole episode made many in the industry very cautious this year.

Erring on the side of having minimal after-spring inventory probably is a natural reaction following last year. Moreover, the window to secure more supply for spring is quickly closing.

The second carryover factor is the lack of fall application.

Ammonia application in Illinois was a “bust” last fall, about 50 percent of expected application.

With ammonia storage limited, and a long, slow supply chain, the ability to make up this deficit in the spring is extremely limited. Fall dry application was very light, too.

If spring “opens up” early, say March, and ammonia is the desired N product (the discount for ammonia to UAN solution may promote ammonia, too), we could quickly drain traditional, “close in,” storage terminals, and be looking for ammonia supply from terminals farther away. This scenario would mean delays and strong prices.

If, on the other hand, the spring application window is short and UAN solution is more preferred, then making

up the fall N deficit will be very hard because the marketplace is not set up, I do not believe, to store or ship this much UAN solution.

For dry product, phosphate prices are strong because worldwide restocking is taking place. That has driven a 50 percent increase in world prices in the past three months.

Potash prices finally seemed to have bottomed globally, and they look to be well supported by good global demand, too.

How do you handle all the craziness around price and supply? Your local FS retailer can help you plan in this uncertain environment.

Joe Dillier is GROWMARK’s director of plant food. His e-mail address is jdillier@growmark.com.

AEM survey predicts slow year for ag machinery sales in U.S. Agricultural machinery manufacturers anticipate 2010 sales will remain weak in the U.S. and Canada before a possible recovery in 2011.

Sales of combines and four-wheel-drive tractors in 2010 were projected to drop after increasing last year, according to the annual outlook survey of the Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM).

Meanwhile, sales of all two-wheel-drive tractors also were projected to decline this year, although losses may not be as steep as those experienced in 2009.

Sales of all two-wheel-drive tractors last year declined by 21.9 percent while sales of four-wheel-drive tractors and combines actually increased by 2 percent and 14.8 percent, respectively, according to an AEM report.

“The drop in equipment sales in most categories is attributed to a combination of the fall in commodity prices, significant drops in net farm income, the tightening of credit throughout the ag equipment distribution channel, and the overall reduction in economic confidence,” said Charlie O’Brien, vice president of agricultural services for AEM. U.S. combine sales in 2010 are expected to decrease 12 percent followed by a 7 percent drop in 2011 and no growth in 2012. A similar sales pattern was projected in Canada.

Sales of four-wheel-drive tractors in the U.S. were pre-

dicted to fall by 19 percent this year before a 2 percent rebound in 2011.

And sales of two-wheeldrive tractors in the 40- to 100-horsepower range were projected to decrease 6 percent this year before a 9 percent rebound in 2011.

“The recession is expected to continue to drive negative growth rates in many equip-

ment categories in 2010” before some of the markets are projected to recover in 2011, O’Brien said.

Other factors fueling market uncertainty include proposed cap-and-trade legislation, country-of-origin labeling, and emission standards that will raise the cost of powered equipment, O’Brien added.

U of I launches pesticide training website A new online training program for private pesticide applicators has been launched by University of Illinois Extension.

The private applicator training, online at {http://web.extension.uiuc.edu/privatepsep/}, was developed by a team of U of I Extension specialists.

“The site includes eight modFarmWeekNow.com ules,” said Scott Bretthauer, U of To learn more about the U of I’s I Extension specialist. new pesticide training website, The modules are: understanding pesticides; pesticides in the go to FarmWeekNow.com. environment; integrated pest management; human pesticide protection; labels and labeling; equipment and calibration part 1; equipment and calibration part 2; and pesticide laws and regulations.

“The modules are completed online at the student’s convenience,” Bretthauer added. The website is a replacement for the self-study CD and provides a training alternative for those unable to attend clinics.

The registration fee is $25.

“Users will have access to the training materials for one year from the date of purchase, so they can go back and refer to the information,” he said.

FarmWeek Page 11 Monday, February 1, 2010

PROFITABILITY Corn Strategy

C A S H S T R AT E G I S T

Cents per bu.

2009 crop: Corn prices continue to find support just below $3.60 on the nearby contract. March futures need to close above $3.73 to offer the first good sign the 20-week low has been established.

Increase old-crop sales to 50 percent if March rallies to $3.90. We may boost sales even more; check the Cash Strategist Hotline frequently. Do not plan to store corn into spring unless you are confident of its quality. We are already hearing of issues.

2010 crop: If December futures rebound to $4.19, make a 20 percent new-crop sale. Check the Cash Strategist Hotline daily; we could adjust that target and/or recommend selling more.

Fundamentals: Temperatures peaked at 95 to 100 degrees in Argentine growing areas this past week, causing some stress to both the corn and soybean crops. The forecast called for some moderation, but if weather doesn’t moderate, or the longer-range forecast indicates a return of stressful conditions, prices should start to firm.

Soybean Strategy

New-crop supply/demand possibilities The accompanying tables are our first estimate of how new-crop supply demand tables might look this year.

The acreage forecasts were derived from the decline in winter wheat plantings, acreage coming back into production

from the Conser vation Reserve Program, and current price relationships. Yields are trend yields.

Demand forecasts are based on historical trends and pertinent domestic and international factors.

AgriVisor endorses crop insurance by

AgriVisor LLC 1701 N. Towanda Avenue PO Box 2500 Bloomington IL 61702-2901 309-557-3147 AgriVisor LLC is not liable for any damages which anyone may sustain by reason of inaccuracy or inadequacy of information provided herein, any error of judgment involving any projections, recommendations, or advice or any other act of omission.

Policies issued by COUNTRY Mutual Insurance Company®, Bloomington, Illinois AgriVisor Hotline Number

309-557-2274

2009 crop: Outside market influences, Chinese switching of a couple of cargoes from the U.S. to Brazil, and perceived good South American weather keep the complex on the defensive. However, the decline is getting overdone; a rebound should occur soon. Boost sales to 50 percent if March rebounds to $9.90. That price and the amount could change at any time; check the Cash Strategist Hotline frequently.

2010 crop: Leave an order to make a 20 percent sale if November futures reach $9.70. Check the Cash Strategist Hotline occasionally for changes.

Fundamentals: The Chinese swap of two export cargoes from the U.S. to Brazil reinforced talk that the U.S. soybean export business will “dry up” when South American supplies become available.

But, China partially has paid for most of its purchases, and

it already has freight booked.

Also, South American export capacity won’t allow our shipments to halt.

Wheat Strategy 2009 crop: Wheat prices continue to erode, but it appears the charts may be starting to trace out of a sideways pattern. This could be an initial sign the 20-week low is forming. Make a 10 percent sale if Chicago March futures hit $5.44, bringing the total to 90 percent.

2010 crop: Use a rally to $5.65 on the Chicago July

contract to make an initial 25 percent sale. Check Cash Strategist Hotline daily as this target could be adjusted at any time.

Fundamentals: Export business for wheat has struggled since late last year. However, the recent decline in prices has brought a significant increase in business. The latest weekly export sales report confirmed this with sales coming in at 689,200 metric tons (25.4 million bushels). The trade was expecting 450,000 to 650,000 (16.6 million to 24 million bushels).

FarmWeek Page 12 Monday, February 1, 2010

PERSPECTIVES

Counting people, insects are difficult jobs It’s a census year.

As has been the case since 1790, every 10 years the U.S. government tries to count the number of people living in this country. This activity is mandated in the U.S. Constitution.

The purpose of the census is to have a numerical basis for proportioning the congressional representatives and members of the Electoral College among states.

Originally, federal marshals visited every house to count. Today the data collection is conducted by the U.S. TOM Census Bureau and TURPIN involves sending a questionnaire to every house.

The questionnaire involves more than the six simple questions of the original census.

Every questionnaire is supposed to be filled out and returned to the Census Bureau. If the census is not returned, someone will come to your house to gather the information. According to U.S. law, population totals must be submitted to the president by Dec. 31 of the census year.

It takes a lot of money and people to conduct a modern census. But if history is any indication, it seems that even with all the effort and money, some people will not be happy with the resulting data.

I guess I am a little surprised that

human population counts are not accurate. After all, humans have been counting things, including living organisms, for eons. Of course, errors can always creep in either when doing the actual count or when the numbers are tabulated.

But generally it would seem that we could count ourselves accurately enough for government work. Apparently not.

Certainly the hue and cry of media pundits relative to the counting process would indicate otherwise.

The reason is simple. Many federal dollars are appropriated for programs based on census population numbers.

So if the group you represent is somehow undercounted, the result is fewer dollars would be available to support the cause.

It goes without saying that if we can’t count the number of humans accurately, then counting insects is an even more difficult task. After all, insects are small and hard to see.

Insects hide and fly away when approached by census-takers. And insects do not fill out questionnaires.

As it turns out, however, accurate counts of insects can be obtained, but the counts are generally done in limited areas. For example, counting aphids on a section of a leaf, borers in a stalk of corn, or fruit flies in a laboratory vial.

But even counting insects in a small area is a problem when the insects can move around. So entomologists use chemicals or cold temperatures to kill or anesthetize the insects before

attempting a count.

Mostly though, entomologists determine insect numbers through a process known as sampling.

That means that counts are made in a limited area and then used to estimate the numbers in a larger area. Of course, even if the count in a limited area is correct, the larger estimate might not be.

Statisticians hedge their bets and attach a probability of error range to a number developed in such a way.

That is why political pollsters always mention the margin of error relative to their predictions and why scientists do the same when they report experiment results.

How many people live in the U.S.?

Well, the first census in 1790 reported 3,929,214 people. As of Jan. 12, 2010, according to the U.S. population clock, there were 308,474,934 people in the U.S. We’ll see how close the census comes to that number.

When it comes to the number of insects, scientists just make calculated guesses.

For instance, there are more insects in a square mile than all the people on Earth.

Or there are 70 pounds of insect flesh for each pound of human flesh.

We don’t even know how many species of insects have been named. About a million, according to some estimates.

World-famous entomologist E. O. Wilson, the ant man, states there are a million billion insects on the surface of the Earth — or as others have calculated, 1.5 billion insects for each person.

I don’t know about you, but even without an accurate census or margin of error, one thing is clear: There are a lot more insects than humans on this Earth.

Tom Turpin is an entomology professor at Purdue University, West Lafayette, Ind. His e-mail address is turpin@purdue.edu.

Injecting some common sense into the antibiotic debate My first 4-H animal, Frosty, a pretty Charolais heifer, had a robust constitution and a feisty disposition. She had calves, singles or TERRA twins, BROCKMAN each year guest columnist and never once came down with an infection that required antibiotic treatment.

I was not quite so feisty or robust as Frosty. More than once, antibiotics rescued me from childhood bouts with serious strep throat. And I am sure each of you has vivid memories of the almost miraculous effects of antibiotics in your own life.

These “wonder drugs” are indispensable to doctors and veterinarians. This is why we need a common-sense approach that uses them similarly in both humans and livestock.

Did you add a few drops of penicillin to the bottle each feeding time to prevent your baby from getting a sore throat? Or sprinkle a little tetracycline on your toddler’s corn flakes every morning to avert earaches?

I suspect not, and you don’t have to be a microbiologist to know why: When a person or animal uses antibiotics routinely, the only bacteria that can survive and reproduce are the

resistant ones, often termed “super-bugs.” The sensible use of antibiotics, therefore, is not routine use to prevent disease, but targeted use to treat it.

There is overwhelming scientific data to back up what common sense tells us: The routine, non-therapeutic use of antibiotics in livestock is resulting in our inability to treat animal and human bacterial diseases with one of the greatest scientific products ever created.

The hard science backing up this conclusion comes from (among others) USDA APHIS (see December 2007 Info Sheet) and the National Antibicrobial Reistance Monitoring System (NARMS), a collaboration among Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Federal Drug Administration (Center for Veterinary Medicine), and the USDA (Food Safety and Inspection Service and Agricultural Research Services).

On the basis of NARMS and other solid scientific data, Rep. Louise Slaughter (D-N.Y.) introduced the “Preservation of Antibiotics for Medical Treatment Act” (PAMTA), which does not infringe upon anyone’s ability to use antibiotics therapeutically — that is, to treat disease. Rather, it is the “non-therapeutic” or “routine preventative” uses that the bill

would curtail.

Carol Keiser (“Needed: A Good Dose of Judgment,” FarmWeek, Jan. 18, 2010) recognizes why such curtailing is necessary when she states that “Slaughter’s goal is worthy” because “she wants to guarantee the continuing effectiveness of antibiotic drugs in people.”

Keiser goes on to explain that, “The overuse of antibiotics allows bacteria to build up resistance. Then the drugs are less able to prevent disease.”

This is indeed what is happening, as “50 million pounds of antibiotics — nearly 70 percent of all antibiotics sold in the U.S. — have been used in food animals for purposes other than treating disease since PAMTA was last introduced two years ago,” according to the Union of Concerned Scientists.

Eliminating 25 million pounds of annual use of nontherapeutic antibiotics will necessitate more careful management of livestock. It also will yield cost savings from money not spent on unnecessary pharmaceuticals, thus increasing farmers’ profits and productivity, while keeping meat prices reasonable.

These are outcomes observed by farmer neighbors

of mine in Central Illinois who raise beef, pork, and dairy goats with antibiotics used only therapeutically.

Similar outcomes were observed when the world’s largest pork exporter eliminated non-therapeutic antibiotic use a decade ago.

Dr. Frank Aarestrup, Denmark’s chief veterinary officer, provided a detailed report to Congress to correct the widespread misrepresentation of Denmark’s experience, noting that hog productivity increased by 47 percent while total antibiotic use was cut in half.

The positive experience of my Illinois neighbors and of Danish hog farmers, along with our common-sense

knowledge about reserving antibiotics for treating bacterial infections, should help us see through “the sky is falling” opposition to Representative Slaughter’s Preservation of Antibiotics for Medical Treatment Act. The act is simply a way to ensure that our “wonder drugs” remain a powerful weapon the next time my cow Frosty’s offspring have a respiratory infection, your sheep have coccidiosis, or your child comes down with strep throat.

Terra Brockman is founder of the educational nonprofit, The Land Connection, and author of “The Seasons on Henry’s Farm.” Her email address is terra.brockman@gmail.com.

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