Corn and soybean growers have a new Actual Production History Yield Exclusion program available. page 4
It’s time to vote for Elkhart’s Thomas Titus as one of USFRA’s Faces of Farming & Ranching. page 10
Economist: Crop, livestock farmers swap market fundamentals Monday, October 27, 2014
BY DANIEL GRANT FarmWeek
Two sections Volume 42, No. 43
If the supply and demand situation for crop and livestock farmers becomes a movie it should borrow the title “Trading Places.” The economic outlook in both sectors did a 180 in the past year. Livestock farmers currently enjoy record prices due to tight supplies,
while crop farmers face just the opposite scenario, about two years removed from the remarkable rally to $8 corn. “There has been a seismic shift in economic conditions for crop and livestock producers,” Rich Pottorff, chief economist for Doane Advisory Services, said last week during Doane’s 31st annual outlook confer-
BOUNTIFUL HARVEST
ence. “The result is quite a change in outlook for the crop and livestock sectors.” Corn prices from 2012 to 2014 dived about 40 percent. Farmers currently are in the midst of harvesting back-to-back record crops along with a record amount of soybeans. Livestock prices, on the other hand, shot up 20 to 30 percent to new
A truck unloads corn into a 2.2 million bushel temporary grain bunker at Evergreen FS’ Yuton Elevator in McLean County. Steve Dennis, Evergreen FS grain department manager, said high yields made use of the bunker necessary. Indoor storage at the facility measures 3 million bushels. Dennis estimated 55 to 60 percent of fields were harvested in the area as of last Wednesday. Watch a harvest video at FarmWeekNow.com. (Photo by Ken Kashian)
Periodicals: Time Valued
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Milder winter weather. That’s the latest prediction from ag meteorologist Drew Lerner. page 3
record levels in some cases due to tight supplies caused by multiple years of drought along with the introduction of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) that decimated swine herds since the spring of 2013. Livestock producers in recent months made as much as $100-plus per head on every hog and $200 per head profit on fed steers. Pottorff looks for those trends to continue. “We’re at the low point of the cattle cycle. It’s virtually impossible to increase beef production (significantly) in 2015,” he said. “I look for tight supplies to continue at least the next year or two and prices will remain high.” Hog production could increase next year due to increased farrowings and less impact of PEDV, and poultry production also could improve and subsequently pressure prices. But supplies should be tight enough to maintain “good prices” and maintain profitability for hog and poultry producers, according to the economist. Budgets for crop producers, however, could be much tighter the next couple years compared to recent history. “Big crops are virtually assured this year. We’re seeing increasing stocks continue to pressure prices,” Pottorff said. “Crop sector margins are thin,” he continued. “And there’s no real relief in sight. Low prices could persist the next few years, barring some sort of weather problem.”
Illinois highlights extensive nutrient efforts
BY KAY SHIPMAN FarmWeek
Illinois’ work, especially by farmers and agribusinesses, to conserve nutrients and improve water quality grabbed the attention of a national hypoxia task force last week. From strategic plans to onfarm nutrient studies to farmer-funded research and education, representatives of Illinois agencies, ag organiza-
tions, universities and communities provided an extensive overview to the Mississippi River Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force that met at Lewis and Clark Community College in Godfrey. “So much activity is happening,” said Iowa Agriculture Secretary Bill Northey, the task force co-chairman. “We’ve got more work to do, but at least we’ve scratched the surface and
See Swap, page 3
feel the momentum.” Task force members learned the 2014 hypoxic zone measured about 5 square miles, which is slightly less than the five-year average. Lauren Lurkins, Illinois Farm Bureau director of natural and environmental resources, reported on a range of agricultural projects and efforts to manage nitrogen and phosphorous, and to encour-
age farmers to adopt best management practices. “It really is farmer led,” Lurkins emphasized. As part of a five-member Illinois panel, Lurkins reported on the Illinois Nutrient Research and Education Council (NREC), the Illinois Council on Best Management Practices, the Keep it for the Crop (KIC) See Illinois, page 2
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