chinA is poiseD to increase its imports of ag products from the U.S., IFB’s vice president learned during a recent trip. ...........5
eURopeAn AnD American scientists share the same goal of having far mers g row biomass crops. ...............................................8
U.s. poRK pRoDUceRs’ recent run of profitability could come to an end soon, according to the USDA’S quarterly hogs and pigs report. ...............9
Monday, October 3, 2011
Two sections Volume 39, No. 40
AFBF, Durbin plans part of growing farm bill mix BY MARTIN ROSS FarmWeek
As bipartisan farm state senators last week touted a new budget-conscious plan aimed at bolstering 2012 farm bill revenue protections, Farm Bureau leaders submitted what they deem the best policy options for producers nationwide. A 12-member congressional “super committee” is expected to submit its blueprint for at least $1.2 trillion in long-term federal savings by Thanksgiving. That’s hastened review of farm bill options that can meet deficit reduction targets while preserving a viable producer safety net. Last week, American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) submitted its “five most important priorities” for the 2012 farm bill: commodity programs, conservation programs, crop insurance, research, and rural development. At the same time, AFBF recognized anticipated cuts “will primarily have to come from the commodity, conser-
vation and nutrition titles, as well as from crop insurance,” which comprise 99 percent of funding under House/Senate Ag Committee jurisdiction. AFBF leaders recommended taking 30 percent of any required ag reductions each from commodity, conservation, and nutrition programs (largely in administrative spending) and 10 percent from the crop insurance program. “We are not suggesting a 30 percent cut in the $65 billion commodity program baseline, but rather that 30 percent of the share of total cuts finally agreed to by the House and Senate Ag Committees,” they stressed. AFBF President Bob Stallman noted any policy proposal must be “wrapped around” the ag budget number set down by the super committee or, should Congress reject the committee plan, possibly far greater cuts. That target remains a “huge unknown,” he said. “Frankly, there’s a huge amount of uncertainty as to
how this super committee process is going to play out relative to the farm bill and the budget,” Stallman said in an RFD Radio-FarmWeek interview. “Everyone’s just going around just kind of
scratching their heads, trying to get prepared for whatever may happen quickly. This is a really fluid situation, and a lot of proposals are being put forth.” Meanwhile, U.S. Sen. Dick
Durbin, a Springfield Democrat, proposes a new Aggregate Risk and Revenue Management (ARMM) program which would “build on” the Average See Farm bill, page 2
U.S. Rep. Jim Costa (D-Calif.), ranking Democrat on the House Ag Rural Development Subcommittee, tries out a tractor cab at Stone Seed near Springfield following a 2012 farm bill hearing on the University of Illinois-Springfield campus. Costa and colleagues checked out global positioning systems at the seed operation. For more on the farm bill and broadband, see page 4. (Photo by Martin Ross)
Corn stocks larger than expected: crop prices slide
Periodicals: Time Valued
BY DANIEL GRANT FarmWeek
Crop prices, which have been trending lower in recent weeks, took it on the chin again Friday as USDA released a bearish grain stocks report. Corn stocks in all positions were pegged at 1.13 billion bushels. Soybean stocks were projected at 215 million bushels. “The soybean number was slightly friendly, but the overriding factor is the corn report,” Jack Scoville, market analyst with Prices Futures Group, said during a teleconference hosted by the CME Group. “It (the corn stock estimate) is significantly above the average trade guess.” Scoville and Jerry Gidel, market analyst with NARMS Futures Trading, believe the main factor for larger-than-expected corn stocks is a reduction in feed use. Corn exports also have been soft, according to Scoville.
“Feed is the primary category that influenced the stocks number,” Scoville said. “$7-plus corn was starting to price itself out of feeders’ capacity.” Corn futures prices subsequently tumbled in FarmWeekNow.com the past month Commentary and details of the grain stocks report are at from $7.75 per FarmWeekNow.com. bushel to down near $6. Soybean futures during the past month took a similar tumble from near $14 to the mid-$12 range. Prices were limit-down Friday morning after the release of the bearish report. “That’s a pretty significant downmove,” Scoville said. “I’ve always felt we could hold $6 (for December corn) and I still think it’s possible.” The markets also could be pressured in coming months if expectations of larger
FarmWeek on the web: FarmWeekNow.com
corn plantings in South America come to fruition. Soybean planting in Brazil so far is off to a slow start due to dry soils, Scoville reported. The crop markets, however, could be nearing levels that could reignite demand. “(Corn) values at this point are not as expensive in the world market,” Gidel said. China previously made a large purchase of U.S. corn on the heels of a bearish stocks report. USDA on Friday also released its small grains annual summary report that showed all wheat production this year totaled 2.01 billion bushels, down 9 percent from last year. The average U.S. wheat yield was 43.9 bushels per acre while the Illinois wheat yield was unchanged at 61 bushels per acre, up 5 bushels from the previous two years. U.S. oat production this year was a record-low 54 million bushels, down 33 percent from 2010.
Illinois Farm Bureau®on the web: www.ilfb.org