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Lula Elected President By Narrowest Margin Ever

Brazil’s four-year experiment with a right-wing government ended abruptly on Oct. 30 when leftist Luís Inácio Lula da Silva captured the presidency for the third time, defeating incumbent Jair Bolsonaro by the narrowest margin in the history of Brazilian presidential elections.

Lula won by 2.1 million votes, capturing 50.9% of the total versus 48.97% for Bolsonaro. His victory was sealed in the Northeast where he topped Bolsonaro by 12.5 million votes, enough to overcome Bolsonaro’s lead of 10.4 million votes in the remainder of the country. Lula won the Northeast region in overwhelming fashion, 69.3% to 30.6%. Bolsonaro was victorious in the Southeast, 54.2% to 45.7%, in the South, 61.8% to 38.1%, in the CentralWest, 60.2% to 39.7%, and in the North, 51% to 48.9%.

Out of Brazil’s three largest states, Bolsonaro captured two, São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, while Lula eked out a narrow victory in Minas Gerais.

At age 77, Lula now becomes the first Brazilian to be elected president three times. In a victory address to supporters in São Paulo, he called for an end to the divisions that dominated the political campaign.

“There are not two Brazils, but one country one great nation. It is time to lower the arms that never should have been wielded,” he said. “Today the winner is the Brazilian people. It’s the victory of a democratic movement that formed above political parties, personal interests and ideologies.”

Lula repeated his campaign promises to reduce hunger and improve the lot of Brazil’s poor. He also stressed his commitment to reversing the highly controversial environmental policy of Bolsonaro.

“We will once again monitor and conduct surveillance in the Amazon. We will fight every illegal activity. At the same time, we will promote sustain able development of the communities of the Amazon,” he said.

Bolsonaro did not issue a statement or make an appearance after the election’s result was announced. Instead, he isolated himself with his family inside the presidential residence and refused to receive visitors.

Several independent truck drivers, who received financial assistance

ELECTION

quality in information

World Leaders Congratulate Lula

As expected, world leaders rushed to congratu late president-elect Lula, giving his victory im mediate global legitimacy to block any attempt by the Bolsonaro camp to challenge the elec tion’s result….................................................…3

FINANCIAL MARKET

Selic Rate Remains at 13.75%

The Central Bank on Oct. 26 held the Selic rate at 13.75%, meeting the expectations of economists that the bank would maintain the economy’s base rate at its current high level for a significant period….........................................4

GOVERNMENT

Census Well Behind Schedule

The year’s census is continuing to run behind schedule. After three months of collecting data, the census takers have completed only 44% of the designated areas with just one month left for the scheduled completion of the process…........4

THE ECONOMY

Deflation Ends in October

The IPCA-15, a mid-month preview of the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), posted in flation of 0.16% for October, ending two straight months of deflation….........................................5

JUDICIARY

Moraes Says TSE Not Responsible for Ads

The president of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Alexandre de Moraes, said on Oct. 27 that it is the responsibility of individual political parties to verify if the media ads of their candi dates are being broadcast…...............................6

EXECUIIVE SUMMARY…...........................2

OTHER DEVELOPMENTS…. .....................7 BRAZIL IN NUMBERS…..............................9

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OCTOBER 24-30, 2022

Election

Brazil’s most contentious political campaign ever terminated on Oct. 30 with the country’s narrowest election decision as former president Lula eked out a 2.1 million vote victory over President Jair Bolsonaro.

Lula’s margin of victory came entirely from his political stronghold in the Northeast region. To win the election, Bolso naro had to build up a lead of close to 13 million votes in the rest of Brazil but came up short with 10.4 million while Lula rolled to a 12.5 million vote margin in the Northeast.

At age 77, Lula now becomes the first Brazilian to be elected president three times. In a victory address to supporters in São Paulo, he called for an end to the divisions that dominated the political campaign.

World leaders rushed to congratulate Lula, giving his victory an immediate global legitimacy to block any attempt by the Bolsonaro camp to challenge the election’s result.

The presidents of both houses of Congress also voiced their acceptance of the election result, further eliminating any attempt to reject the outcome.

Bolsonaro and his family members said nothing. No statements were issued and Bolsonaro isolated himself in his of ficial residence, refusing even to permit close friends and allies to enter the palace.

Financial Market

The Central Bank held the Selic rate at 13.75%. The bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) said it would continue to be vigilant to verify that its strategy is sufficient to lower inflation.

Meanwhile, the average annual interest rate on bank loans declined slightly in September to 40.4%, down from 40.6% in August, the first reduction since June 2021.

The rate on loans to individuals fell from 54% annually to 53.7% and the rate on company loans increased from 22.7% to 22.9%.

Government

Federal tax collections again set records in September, helping the central government register a primary budget surplus of R$10.9 billion (US$2 billion), the best result for the month since 2010.

Government revenues increased by 9.3% versus September of last year while expenditures declined by 1.1%. For the 12 months ending in September, the government posted a surplus of R$84.9 billion (US$16 billion).

The Economy

The IPCA-15, a mid-month preview of the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), posted inflation of 0.16% for October, ending two straight months of deflation.

Unemployment for the three months ending in September fell from 8.9% in August to 8.7%, the seventh consecutive decline, according to the government statistics agency IBGE.

The economy in September registered a net gain of 278,085 payroll jobs, slightly more than economists had projected.

Brazil in September registered a current account deficit of US$5.678 billion, the highest deficit for the month since 2014.

Foreign direct investment for the month totaled US$9.185 billion, easily covering the deficit, and the 12-month FDI total was US$73.811 billion.

Brazil’s reserves declined by US$12.1 billion in September to US$327.6 billion and have now fallen by US$24 billion since the start of the year. The Central Bank’s monetary director Fernando Rocha attributed this to the monetary policy of the United States which has raised interest rates and appreciated the dollar compared to other currencies.

Brazil’s high point for reserves was US$388.1 billion in June 2019. The current level is the lowest since March 2011.

Judiciary

A majority of the Supreme Court voted to give the government 60 days to adopt the necessary administrative measures to reactivate the Amazon Fund, financed by Norway and Germany, and avoid further suspensions. The ministers ruled that the government was incorrect in its extinction of the steering committee of the Amazon Fund which led to its suspension in 2019.

from the government in recent months, reacted violently to Bolsonaro’s defeat, setting up roadblocks on highways in four states.

World Leaders Congratulate Lula

As expected, world leaders rushed to congratulate president-elect Lula, giving his victory immediate global legitimacy to block any attempt by the Bolsonaro camp to challenge the election’s result.

French President Emmanuel Macron, who had a complicated relationship with President Jair Bolsonaro, was among the first to express his satisfaction with Lula’s victory, calling it `’a new chapter in Brazil’s history.”

US President Joe Biden congratulated Lula and stated, “I am anxious to work together and continue the co operation between our two countries in the coming months and years.”

The European Union congratulated Lula in a statement praising the electoral court for its effectiveness and transparency throughout the campaign

Argentina’s President Alberto Fernandez was one of several leftist Latin American leaders to compliment Lula.

Congressional Leaders Accept Election Result

The presidents of both houses of Congress made statements expressing their acceptance of the election’s result, eliminating the possibility of a challenge of the outcome.

Lower house president Arthur Lira (PP-AL) said it is time for adversaries `’to extend their hands, to debate and build bridges.” Senate president Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG) said he hoped that Lula would be able to conduct his government “with dignity, with success, a public and democratic spirit.”

Lula will be taking office with a congressional base of 140 deputies in the lower house and 20 senators, all of them members of the parties that formed his election alliance. To form a majority, he will have to negotiate support from 180 deputies belonging to neutral parties and 30 senators.

Bolsonaro Candidate Captures São Paulo State House

Despite losing the presidential election, President Jair Bolsonaro did demonstrate his political strength in Brazil’s most important state, São Paulo, where his candidate Tarcisio Freitas was elected governor.

With this result, Bolsonaro supporters will now govern the country’s three most populous states, São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro. Bolsonaro allies were also victorious in four other gubernatorial races on Sunday,

PT Objects to Action of Highway Police

Leaders of president-elect Lula’s PT Party reacted angrily to actions by Federal Highway police on Election Day to stop and search buses carrying voters.

The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) had ordered the police not to conduct any type of operation that might interfere with the election. The police, however, ignored this and conducted over 500 actions against buses, 70% more than on Oct. 2 for the first-round election. These actions were concentrated in the Northeast where Lula’s sup port was strongest.

The PT protested to the TSE, whose president Alexandre de Moraes called in the head of the police Silveinei Vasques and demanded an explanation. Moraes later stated that no voter had been prevented from reaching his voting place by the action of the police. He added that the incidents would be investigated and Vasques could face criminal charges.

Moraes also said there is a no risk that the election’s result could be contested.

Lula Releases Letter Vowing Fiscal Responsibility

In response to growing pressure for him to define his economic policy, future president-elect Lula on Oct. 27

released a letter to Brazil in which he pledged to combine fiscal and social responsibility “with clear and realistic rules.”

In the nine-page text, Lula said if elected he would pursue multiyear targets to address social demands and boost public investment.

“It’s possible to combine fiscal responsibility, social responsibility and sustainable development. That’s what we are going to do, in line with the trend in major economies,” the letter stated.

Investors and economists pointed out that Lula’s promises were overly vague and provided little in the way of details. The letter states that Lula will introduce new labor legislation but says nothing about what this might be.

It also says nothing about replacing the existing spending cap which Lula has said he will abandon.

Financial Market

Selic Rate Remains at 13.75%

The Central Bank on Oct. 26 held the Selic rate at 13.75%, meeting the expectations of economists that the bank would maintain the economy’s base rate at its current high level for a significant period.

The bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) in its statement said it would continue to be vigilant to verify that its strategy is sufficient to lower inflation. The statement also said that the bank “would not hesitate to resume the adjustment cycle if the disinflation process does not proceed as expected.”

The bank is now projecting that inflation in 2023 will be 4.8%, still above the target rate of 3.25%. For 2024, however, the forecast is that inflation will drop to 2.9%, below the year’s target of 3%.

Slight Decline in Interest Rates on Bank Loans

The average annual interest rate on bank loans declined slightly in September to 40.4%, down from 40.6% in August, the first reduction since June 2021.

The rate on loans to individuals fell from 54% annually to 53.7% and the rate on company loans increased from 22.7% to 22.9%.

The annual rate on bank overdrafts, so-called special check loans, increased from 128.4% in August to 134.6%, the highest level since January 2020. The average rate on credit card balances fell from 399.6% to 388.7%.

CEF Suspends Loans Via Brazil Aid Program

The Federal Savings Bank (CEF) on Oct. 25 accepted the recommendation of the Federal Auditing Court (TCU) and suspended further approvals of loans to recipients of the Brazil Aid welfare program to be paid back via automatic deductions in the monthly $600 welfare payments.

The TCU Is concerned with the massive response to this program which it feels could expose the bank to fi nancial risk. In its statement, the bank said it did not know when more loans would be considered nor when the money for approved loans would be released. As of Oct. 14, the Bank had approved loans totaling R$1.8 billion (US$340 million) for 700,000 welfare recipients.

Government Census Well Behind Schedule

The year’s census is continuing to run behind schedule. After three months of collecting data, the census takers have completed only 44% of the designated areas with just one month left for the scheduled completion of the process.

In 2010, the entire census was completed on Nov. 4 with the counting of 185.7 million persons. Thus far in 2022, only 128 million Brazilians have been counted.

The process has been slowed by labor problems with the census takers who have complained of low salaries

which has left the government’s statistics agency, IBGE, facing serious hiring difficulties. The number of census tak ers today is only 52.2% of the total for the available job openings.

Government Posts Budget Surplus in September

The central government in September registered a primary budget surplus of R$10.9 billion (US$2 billion), the best result for the month since 2010.

Government revenues increased by 9.3% versus September of last year while expenditures declined by 1.1%. For the 12 months ending in September, the government posted a surplus of R$84.9 billion (US$16 billion). Its fiscal target for the year is a deficit of R$170.5 billion (US$32 billion).

More Tax Records in September

Federal tax collections again set records in September, although the monthly increase was the lowest of the year.

Collections expanded by 4.09% versus September of last year, totaling R$166 billion (US$31.3 billion). For the first nine months of the year tax collections rose by 9.52% over the same period last year to R$1.6 trillion (US$302 billion). Government officials attributed September’s result to a 9.85% increase in collections from company income taxes.

Election Promises Will Cost Over R$140 Billion in 2023

According to the calculations of economists, an election vicory by Lula would result in additional government expenses in 2023 of over R$140 billion (US$26.4 billion), assuming he implements his election promises.

The principal expenses would come from promises to maintain the monthly welfare payments from the Brazil Aid program at R$600 and to continue the current federal tax exemptions for fuels.

The additional cost for the welfare program would be R$52 billion (US$9.8 billion) and for the tax breaks it would be R$34 billion (US$6.4 billion). Lula has said that he would pay each family on welfare an additional R$150 for children up to six years old.

Economists believe the totals are too high to be covered by budget cuts which would leave two options--either ask for a waiver from the spending ceiling or change the ceiling.

The Economy Deflation Ends in October

The IPCA-15, a mid-month preview of the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), posted inflation of 0.16% for October, ending two straight months of deflation.

The 12-month rate for the index in October still declined from 7.96% in September to 6.85%. The price of gasoline was again the main factor falling by 5.92%. Fuel prices in general declined by 6.14% but airfares soared by 28.17%, accounting for all of the month’s increase. Food prices also rose, by 0.21%.

Unemployment Falls to 8.7%

Unemployment for the three months ending in September fell from 8.9% in August to 8.7%, the seventh con secutive decline, according to the government statistics agency IBGE.

Over the three months, one million new jobs were created, raising the total of employed Brazilians to 99.2 million. The total of the unemployed was reduced by 621,000 to 9.4 million, the lowest result since the quarter ending in December 2015.

Total national payroll increased by 9.9% versus last year, reaching R$266.7 billion (US$50 billion). The aver

age monthly salary rose 2.5% in the year-on-year comparison to R$2,737.

Economy Created 278,000 Payroll Jobs in September

The economy in September registered a net gain of 278,085 payroll jobs, slightly more than economists had projected.

The year is now expected to end with an expansion of 2.1 million payroll jobs. In September, the services sector led job creation with 122,562 followed by commerce with 57,974 and industry with 56,909.

The average starting salary declined in September by 0.64% to R$1,931.

September Has Current Account Deficit of US$5.6 Billion

Brazil in September registered a current account deficit of US$5.678 billion, the highest deficit for the month since 2014.

This left the 12-month deficit at US$46.153 billion, the equivalent of 2.56% of GDP. Foreign direct investment for the month totaled US$9.185 billion, easily covering the deficit, and the 12-month FDI total was US$73.811 billion.

Foreign investments on the stock market, however, were negative by US$4 billion and total foreign portfolio investments showed a net outflow of US$3.326 billion.

The Central Bank is now projecting the year will end with a current account deficit of US$47 billion, covered by FDI of US$70 billion.

Brazil’s reserves declined by US$12.1 billion in September to US$327.6 billion and have now fallen by US$24 billion since the start of the year. The Central Bank’s monetary director Fernando Rocha attributed this to the mon etary policy of the United States which has raised interest rates and appreciated the dollar compared to other curren cies.

Brazil’s high point for reserves was US$388.1 billion in June 2019. The current level is the lowest since March 2011.

Only 21% of New Companies Survived Past Decade

According to a new study on business demographics conducted by the government statistics agency IBGE, only 21.3% of the companies created in 2011 were still operating in 2020.

From 2019 to 2020, 634,400 companies closed their doors. The problems cited were the overall economic situation plus difficulty in lining up credit and the existence of a large number of regulations.

The highest survival rates were in the South, 23.9%, and the Southeast, 21.4%. The lowest were in the North, 16.8%, and the Northeast, 19.1%.

In 2020, the study showed that Brazil had 4.9 million active companies out of which 2.5 million had no em ployees, 1.9 million had between one and nine employees, and 443,000 had 10 or more employees.

Judiciary Moraes Says TSE Not Responsible for Monitoring Candidate Ads

The president of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Alexandre de Moraes, said on Oct. 27 that it is the re sponsibility of individual political parties to verify if the media ads of their candidates are being broadcast.

He was responding to claims by President Jair Bolsonaro that thousands of his radio ads were not aired, thus giving an unfair advantage to president-elect Lula. The Bolsonaro campaign asked the TSE to intervene and punish Lula by reducing the number of ads he is allowed to air.

Moraes on Wednesday rejected Bolsonaro’s claims and insisted on Thursday that this is not the court’s responsibility.

“As we all know, it is not now and never was and will continue not being the responsibility of the Superior

Electoral Court to distribute ads for television and radio (spots) and monitor radio by radio in the entire country if the radios are transmitting these ads,” he said. “All parties in good faith and all candidates in good faith know this.”

Supreme Court Majority Votes To Restore Amazon Fund

A majority of the Supreme Court voted on October 27 to give the government 60 days to adopt the necessary administrative measures to reactivate the Amazon Fund, financed by Norway and Germany, and avoid further suspensions.

Court president Rosa Weber and six other ministers voted in favor of this position while Minister Nunes Marques voted against. The remaining ministers were to conclude the voting this week

Weber adopted the position followed by the others in which she said that the government was incorrect in its unilateral extinction of the steering committee of the Amazon Fund which led to its suspension in 2019.

She accused the government with violating the constitution by eliminating a source of financing to combat environmental degradation without presenting an alternative.

The court is ruling on a suit filed by four opposition parties accusing the federal government with negligence in allowing the money from the Amazon Fund to go unused instead of employing it to combat deforestation and forest fires.

Mendes Warns of Those Who Want to Weaken Supreme Court

Supreme Court Minister Gilmar Mendes on Oct. 26 joined his colleagues in expressing support for fellow minister Carmen Lucia who came under a vicious verbal attack from former federal deputy Roberto Jefferson. Mendes said that this latest incident was part of a series of attacks designed to weaken the court.

“There are many who are interested in a weak Supreme Court. And to weaken the institution, all means are valid--threatening the lives of ministers and their families, financing gangs that camp out in the ministerial Esplanade as well as inciting comrades to destroy the court,” he said.

Supreme Court Upholds Measures To Combat Disinformation

The Supreme Court voted 8 to 2 on Oct. 25 to reject a challenge filed by prosecutor general Augusto Aras of the new measures introduced by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) to combat election disinformation. Aras had claimed that the new measures, which give TSE president Alexandre de Moraes wide powers to punish fake news, are unconstitutional.

Other Developments

Infant Malnutrition Worst in 14 Years

Malnutrition among infants increased in 2021 and hospitalizations expanded by 10.9%, reaching 113 for ev ery 100,000 births, the highest rate in 14 years.

A total of 2,939 Infants required hospitalization for malnutrition last year, according to the Infant Health Observatory, which is connected to the federal research laboratory Fiocruz. The increase was blamed on hunger and overall social conditions. The Northeast region led the country with 171.5 hospitalizations for every 100,000 births, 51% above the national average.

Jefferson Faces Four Charges of Attempted Murder

The Federal Police on Oct. 24 charged former federal deputy Roberto Jefferson with four counts of attempted murder, the result of his firing on police officers attempting to enforce an arrest order.

Two police officers were wounded as Jefferson fired a total of 50 rounds from an assault rifle and threw three

grenades at the police. Jefferson admitted his actions to the police but claimed he was not trying to kill anyone. This, however, was contested by the arresting officers who stated categorically that Jefferson was shooting to kill. Jefferson was confined to a prison in the city of Rio de Janeiro.

TRADE

BRAZIL IN NUMBERS

Exports (in US$ million) Imports (in US$ million) Balance (in US$ million)

12 Months

Period Month Year (cumulative) Month Year (cumulative) Month Year (cumulative) (cumulative)

1992 36,207 20,542 15,665 1993 38,701 25,652 13,049 1994 43,590 33,167 10,423 1995 46,493 49,656 -3,157 1996 47,738 53,281 -5,544 1997 52,986 61,358 -8,372 1998 51,120 57,550 -6,430 1999 48,011 49,210 -1,199 2000 55,086 55,777 -691 2001 58,223 55,580 2,643 2002 60,298 47,188 13,110 2003 73,084 48,253 24,831 2004 96,470 62,780 33,690 2005 118,309 73,545 44,764 2006 137,471 91,394 46,077 2007 160,649 120,610 40,039 2008 197,942 173,207 24,735 2009 152,995 127,647 25,348 2010 201,916 181,638 20,278 2011 256,041 226,251 29,790 2012 242,580 223,142 19,438 2013 242,178 239,627 2,561 2014 225,101 229,031 -3,930 2015 191,134 171,453 19,681 2016 185,244 137,552 47,692 2017 217,746 150,745 67,001 2018 239,523 181,225 58,298 2019 224,018 177,334 46,674 2020 209,920 158,926 50,994 2021 280,394 219,386 61,008 2022 September 28,950 253,840 24,956 205,971 3,993 47,868 54,593

LABOR

May June July August September October November

Unemployment Brazil (IBGE, %) 9.8 9.3 9.1 8.9 8.7 Industrial Employment (CNI) 0.1 0.4 0.5 -0.1 Minimum Wage R$1,212 R$1,212 R$1,212 R$1,212 R$1,212 R$1,212 R$1,212

INDUSTRY

Variation in % Period Result Month* Year To Date Year-on-Year**

Industrial production (IBGE) August -0.6 -1.3 2.8 Industrial sales (CNI) August 0.2 -0.5 7.5 Auto production September 207,800 -12.7 6.3 19.3 *compared with previous month **compared with same month last year

EXCHANGE RATES

Period Commercial Dollar Variation Month (%) Euro Variation Month (%) (end of month in R$) (end of month in R$)

2020

2021

October 5.7718 2.32 6.7241 1.68 November 5.6199 -0.41 6.3286 -2.93 December 5.1967 -2.53 6.3779 -0.03

January 5.4759 5.37 6.6532 4.32 February 5.5302 -0.99 6.7142 0.92 March 5.6973 3.02 6.6915 -0.34 April 5.4036 -5.16 6.5016 -2.84 May 5.2322 -3.17 6.4000 -1.56 June 5.0022 -4.40 5.9276 -7.38 July 5.1216 2.39 6.0768 2.52 August 5.1433 0.42 6.1565 1.31 September 5.4394 5.76 6.2983 3.77 October 5.6430 3.74 6.5194 3.51 November 5.5865 -1.00 6.3222 -3.02 December 5.5805 -0.70 6.3210 -0.12 2022

January 5.3574 -4.00 6.0073 -4.96 February 5.1394 -4.07 5.7803 -3.78 March 4.7378 -7.81 5.2561 -9.07 April 4.9191 3.83 5.1852 -1.35 May 4.7289 -3.87 5.0755 -2.12 June 5.2380 10.77 5.4842 8.05 July 5.1884 -0.95 5.2937 -3.47 August 5.1790 -0.18 5.2127 -1.53 September 5.4066 4.39 5.2904 1.49 October* 5.3454 -1.13 5.3112 0.39 * as of October 28

RESERVES

Period Ready Reserves (in US$ million at end of period) 1994 36,471 1995 50,449 1996 59,039 1997 51,359 1998 43,600 1999 35,554 2000 32,949 2001 35,844 2002 37,823 2003 49,296 2004 52,935 2005 53,799 2006 85,839 2007 180,334 2008 193,783 2009 239,054 2010 288,575 2011 352,012 2012 373,147 2013 358,808 2014 363,551 2015 368,739 2016 372,221 2017 381,972 2018 374,215 2019 356,884 2020 355,620 2021 September 327,580

INTEREST RATES

SELIC

Period Rate

October 28 13.75%/year

Working capital October 28 31.67%/year ACC October 28 7.32%/year TLP October 28 5.27%/year CDI monthly October 28 1.02% Credit Cards October 28 388.7%/year Special Check October 28 134.6%

INFLATION

Index

Period Month Year 12 Months

IPCA September -0.29 4.09 7.17

IGP September -1.22 5.54 7.94 IGP-M September -0.95 6.61 8.25 FIPE September 0.12 5.76 8.20

RETAIL SALES (nationwide--IBGE)

Variation in %

Period Month* Year to Date Year-on-Year

Total Sales August -0.1 0.5 1.6

Durable Goods August 1.0 -9.9 -8.5

Semidurables August 13.0 8.5 -5.6 Supermarkets, Food August 0.2 0.5 1.4 Expanded index August -0.6 -0.8 -0.7 * in comparison with previous month

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