Understanding the Madness Although daunting, utilizing trends can help in filling out brackets Nate Albin
N
ate Albin: Last year, we essentially failed at even trying to predict the NCAA Tournament. I can live with Illinois losing in the second round to an under-seeded Loyola-Chicago, but Texas losing to Abilene Christian? That hurt.
UCLA’s Johnny Juzang, Purdue’s Trevion Williams, Gonzaga’s Drew Timme, Villanova’s Collin Gillespie, Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebwe and Wisconsin’s Brad Davison look to lead their teams to the Final Four and a shot at the national championship. Photos courtesy of Wikimedia Commons.
Nicholas Rasmusson: Yes, and seeing as it is the most wonderful time of the year, again, we have decided to make an attempt at redeeming ourselves. Bracketology, the science of predicting the NCAA Tournament, is far from being exact. Nobody has completed a perfect bracket, and quite frankly, I do not think that it will happen ever, but there are a few key components that viewers can implement into their bracket predictions to try and get as close to perfect as possible. NA: Hot take saying that there will not be a perfect bracket. The odds are 1 in
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Tiger Times
Nicholas Rasmusson
albinnat000@hsestudents.org rasmunic000@hsestudents.org
9,223,372,036,854,780,000 of doing that. I do not know how many things you have done that many times, but being successful only once over nine quintillion times seems like the deck is stacked against you. We cannot help you fill out a perfect bracket, but what is your first tip in filling out the bracket? NR: My first tip is to lock in the one-seeds to win their first round matchup. Historically, one-seeds hold a 143-1 record against their 16-seeded opponents, with the only loss occurring in 2018, when top-seeded Virginia fell to the University of MarylandBaltimore County (UMBC). That upset required a perfect storm to pull off, so I am not expecting to see another 16-seed upset any time soon. Count on those top-seeded teams to win their first round matchup. NA: But then again, one reason people love the NCAA Tournament is because of the upsets. The average
tournament has about 12 upsets, which occur when a team seeded at least three lines below beats the higher seed. Based on previous years, be sure to pick at least one two- or three-seed to lose in the second round, and if you feel zesty, pick a one-seed to lose that round as well. NR: In addition to that, a 12seed tends to upset a five-seed at least once in the NCAA Tournament, but do not go too overboard with the upset picks. Top-seeded teams always seem to find their way back to the Final Four. Since 2000, every Final Four has featured a one-seed except for in 2006 and 2011, so I would bet on a oneseed to advance to New Orleans this year. NA: Top seeds find their way to the Final Four, but so do underdogs. In the past eight tournaments, a team seeded fifth or higher has made the Final Four every year. So, how do you pick this team? Look for teams that are better than their seed suggests. There are two candidates for this. One is a team from a small conference
