March Madness

Understanding the Madness

Although daunting, utilizing trends can help in filling out brackets

Nate Albin albinnat000@hsestudents.org Nicholas Rasmusson rasmunic000@hsestudents.org

UCLA’s Johnny Juzang, Purdue’s Trevion Williams, Gonzaga’s Drew Timme, Villanova’s Collin Gillespie, Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebwe and Wisconsin’s Brad Davison look to lead their teams to the Final Four and a shot at the national championship. Photos courtesy of Wikimedia Commons. Nate Albin: Last year, we essentially failed at even trying to predict the NCAA Tournament. I can live with Illinois losing in the second round to an under-seeded Loyola-Chicago, but Texas losing to Abilene Christian? That hurt.

Nicholas Rasmusson: Yes, and seeing as it is the most wonderful time of the year, again, we have decided to make an attempt at redeeming ourselves. Bracketology, the science of predicting the NCAA Tournament, is far from being exact. Nobody has completed a perfect bracket, and quite frankly, I do not think that it will happen ever, but there are a few key components that viewers can implement into their bracket predictions to try and get as close to perfect as possible.

NA: Hot take saying that there will not be a perfect bracket. The odds are 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,780,000 of doing that. I do not know how many things you have done that many times, but being successful only once over nine quintillion times seems like the deck is stacked against you. We cannot help you fill out a perfect bracket, but what is your first tip in filling out the bracket?

NR: My first tip is to lock in the one-seeds to win their first round matchup. Historically, one-seeds hold a 143-1 record against their 16-seeded opponents, with the only loss occurring in 2018, when top-seeded Virginia fell to the University of MarylandBaltimore County (UMBC). That upset required a perfect storm to pull off, so I am not expecting to see another 16-seed upset any time soon. Count on those top-seeded teams to win their first round matchup.

NA: But then again, one reason people love the NCAA Tournament is because of the upsets. The average tournament has about 12 upsets, which occur when a team seeded at least three lines below beats the higher seed. Based on previous years, be sure to pick at least one two- or three-seed to lose in the second round, and if you feel zesty, pick a one-seed to lose that round as well.

NR: In addition to that, a 12seed tends to upset a five-seed at least once in the NCAA Tournament, but do not go too overboard with the upset picks. Top-seeded teams always seem to find their way back to the Final Four. Since 2000, every Final Four has featured a one-seed except for in 2006 and 2011, so I would bet on a oneseed to advance to New Orleans this year.

NA: Top seeds find their way to the Final Four, but so do underdogs. In the past eight tournaments, a team seeded fifth or higher has made the Final Four every year. So, how do you pick this team? Look for teams that are better than their seed suggests. There are two candidates for this. One is a team from a small conference

that “played no one.” Sometimes a team that wins a lot is “used to winning” and can find a way in March. On the other end of the spectrum is an undervalued major conference team. Their schedule may have been a gauntlet, and the tournament allows for a reset. Either way, use a source like KenPom, a combined measure of offensive and defensive efficiency, to help find a team ranked higher than their seed.

NR: Exactly. I am excited to see which team will shock the world with a deep tournament run, but when making your dark horse pick, try to keep it reasonable. In the past, we have seen multiple double-digit seeds advance to the Final Four, but they have never finished as national champions. This highest-numbered seed to win the NCAA Tournament occurred in 1985, when Villanova defied all odds to win the national title as an eight-seed. More recently, the University of Connecticut (UCONN) won it all in 2014 as a seven-seed, but since then, no team seeded lower than two has been crowned national champion. Pick boldly, but pick at your own risk.

NA: When picking a champion, I found that teams avenging previous tournament losses do well. As earlier mentioned, UMBC stunned Virginia. What happened the next year? Virginia cut down the nets. In 2017, North Carolina won the championship after losing the national title to Villanova on a buzzer-beater the previous year. Those teams had two keys: they were motivated by a loss and returned almost all of their key contributors from last year. A team on edge is a team to watch.

NR: With that being said, I am picking Gonzaga to win the national championship this season. While Gonzaga lost 3 key contributors from last season’s national runner-up finish, they returned a very efficient scorer in Drew Timme, and they added lots of talent with multiple top recruits, headlined by Chet Holmgren. The Zags are the top team in the KenPom rankings, and they dominate night in and night out. Despite having a few hiccups during the nonconference season, Gonzaga has dominated a sneaky good West Coast Conference. I know that it is the vanilla pick, but I also know that last season’s national championship defeat still stings in Spokane. I think that this is the year that Mark Few finally gets over the hump and brings home a national championship.

NA: You can pick Gonzaga, but I have a different west coast team that fits all my previous criteria: Mick Cronin’s UCLA Bruins. UCLA is considered to be a four or five seed, but their KenPom suggests they are a top 10 team. They also are top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, a feat few other teams can claim. The Bruins are also coming off of one of the most devastating losses in recent memory: losing on a half-court shot to Gonzaga as a massive underdog in the Final Four. If that is not enough, they are led by Johnny Juzang and Jaime Jaquez Jr., two bona fide stars of the sport. An underrated school with a bevy of experience seeking redemption? UCLA is that team.

NR: Good pick, but regardless of who wins the national championship this year, it is going to be a great tournament. It is a year full of unknowns, and March always brings the excitement. It will be very difficult to take your eyes off of your TV. • The First

Round begins on March 17 • The Final Four is on April 2 and 4 in

New Orleans,

Louisiana • Each conference tournament champion receives an automatic bid into the NCAA

Tournament • The odds-on favorite to win the national championship is Gonzaga at +375 (via

BetMGM)