Arbitrage Magazine - September 2020 - Finance & Investment Club | IIM Rohtak

ARBI TRAGE

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Sept ember2020 Vol4I ssue7

Ar t i cl eoft hemont h-

Dof i nanci almar ket sr ef l ectt he t r uest at eoft heeconomydur i ng uncer t ai nt i mesl i keCOVI D?

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I NDEX S. No.

Ar t i cl e

Page No.

1

Dof i nanci al mar ket sr ef l ectt het r uest at eoft heeconomy

3

dur i nguncer t ai nt i mesl i keCOVI D? 2

REI Ts: Ri di ngt hewav eofoppor t uni t yandopt i mi sm

7

3

Economi cgr owt hbey ondGDP

13

4

RBIOper at i ont wi st

16

5

I mpactofCov i d19onI ndi anandGl obal Fi nanci al sy st em

19

6

I mpactofTokeni zat i oni nFi nanci al Mar ket : AReal Est at e Per spect i v e

22

7

Cor onaandThePast r yWor l d

25

8

Chi na’ sMast erpl an: DebtTr apDi pl omacy

27

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Dof i nanci almar ket sr ef l ectt het r uest at eoft heeconomydur i ng uncer t ai nt i mesl i keCOVI D? By :Di v y aSi nghv i&KeshavTawar i( I I M Bangal or e)

EconomyDown, St ockMar ketUp!I st hi sanot herbubbl ewai t i ngt obur st ?

Ani nt er est i nganal ogycompar est heeconomyandst ockmar ket st oamanwal ki nghi sdogi nt he par k.Theman( economy )mov esi nast r ai ght f or war dst r i dewi t hf ew dev i at i ons.Hi sdog( st ock mar ket )ont heot herhand,i sonal eashandr unsi nt hesamedi r ect i onbutatt i meschasesa squi r r el t ot hel ef torabut t er f l yt ot her i ghtandgoescompl et el yber ser k.

Wel l , i nt hesamef ashi onst ockmar ket s( l eadi ngi ndi cat or )ar eexpect edt ogoi nt andem wi t ht he economy .Cur r ent l y ,duet ot heCOVI D19pandemi c,t heI ndi aneconomyi spr oj ect edt oshr i nkby 6.

8%i nFY21,bot t om l i neofcor por at esar ehi tandr ev enueper f or mancesbei ngoneoft hewor st i nt hel ast12quar t er s, l eadi ngt ocostcut t i nganddownsi zi ngbyl ay i ngof fempl oy eesandscal i ng backcompensat i ons.Unempl oy menti nt hecount r ywasatanal l t i mehi ghof23.

5%i nApr i l ’ 20.

Av i at i on, Hospi t al i t y&Nonessent i alconsumergoods, NBFCsandr ealest at eshav et akenamaj or hi tandoncet hemor at or i um expi r es,banks’NPAsar eonl yexpect edt ogoup.Al loft hi si sonl y goi ngt oaddt ot hemi ser yoft hecommonman.

Ont heot herhand,t heSensexf el lf r om t heal l t i mehi ghof42, 272i nJan‘ 20t o25, 981i nMar ’ 20 andsur pr i si ngl yi snow t r adi ngat38, 091.Thi squi ckr ecov er yhasl ef tmanyeconomi st sand f i nanci al anal y st spuzzl ed!

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Hast hi sr eal l yhappenedf ort hef i r stt i me?Thegr aphabov epai nt sadi f f er entpi ct ur e.Whi l ei ti s of t enseent hatt hest ockmar keti st hr i v i ngdespi t et heeconomyper f or mi ngsl uggi shl y ,t hi s howev eri sseenasashor t t er m mi smat ch.Hi st or i cal l y ,wehav eseent hatannualgai nsofmor e t han50% i nt hemar kethav egener al l ycoi nci dedwi t ht ur ni ngpoi nt si nt heeconomyandar e accompani edbyi mpr ov ementi nt heGDPgr owt hr at e.Thi smakest hecur r entsi t uat i onr ar esi nce t heeconomyandst ockmar ket sar ei nsucht angent i aldi r ect i ons.Themostsur pr i si ngpar tbei ng t hespeedofr ecov er ysi nceev enaf t ert he2008gl obalf i nanci alcr i si s,t heSENSEXt ookal mosta y eart or ecov ert opr i orl ev el s.Socl ear l yi ti st hespeedwi t hwhi cht heSensexf el landr ecov er ed, ev enbef or et hepandemi ci sov er , t hati st hemat t erofconcer n.

Howev er ,I ndi anst ockmar ket sar en’ tt heonl yonesshowi ngsucht endenci es.Dur i ngt he2008 f i nanci alcr i si s,t hest ockmar ket sgl obal l yf el lby4060% ev ent hought heeconomydi dn’ tr eal l y shr i nkby50%.Thi swasf ol l owedbyS&P500t r i pl i ngi nt henext6y ear swhi chwasofcour senot backedbysuchhi ghgr owt hi nGDP.Dur i ngCOVI D, t hesecondquar t ergr owt hr at esi nUSt ooki t s wor sthi tsi ncet heGr eatDepr essi onof1930s.Howev er ,t hemaj orst ocki ndexeshav eal most r ecov er edbackt opr ecr i si sl ev el smaki ngt hi soneoft heshor t estbeart r endsi nhi st or y .

So,whatexact l yi scausi ngsuchal ar gedi ssonancebet weent hemar ket sandt heeconomyt hi s t i mear ound?

Fi r st l y ,t hest ockmar keti smost l yf or war dl ooki ngandt r i est odi scountt hef ut ur ewhi l et he economyshowst hepr esentst at e.Secondl y ,t heeconomyi ncl udesal lst r at aofsoci et y , butst ock mar keti sl i mi t edt ot hosewi t hsuf f i ci entdi sposabl ei ncomeandi spr i mar i l ydomi nat edbyamuch weal t hi ercl ass.

Whenwel ookatt heast oni shi ngmov ementi nt hest ockpr i cest her ear ecer t ai nmacr oeconomi c, behav i our al andgl obal f act or swhi chcanexpl ai nt hi sanomal y .

Cent r al BanksandGov er nment shav epl ay edani mpor t antr ol ei ni ncr easi ngt hel i qui di t y i nt hemar ket .Asachi efeconomi stsay s, “ Thi sRal l yi nequi t i esi scl ear l ynotdr i v enby f undament al s–i t sdr i v enbyt hel i qui di t ysuppor tf r om f eder alReser v e. ”

 Rol eofCent r albanks:RBIhascont i nuedt odecr easedr epor at ef r om 5.

15%i nFeb ‘ 20t o4%asoft oday .I nUS, t heFedi snowt ar get i ngr at esbet ween0%t o0.

25% downf r om apr ev i oust ar getr angeof1%t o1.

25%.Cent r al banksal l ov ert hewor l d ar eadopt i ngquant i t at i v eeasi ngt oi ncr easel i qui di t yi nt hemar ket .

 Gov er nment sBoost :Mar ket sar ebenef i t t i ngf r om massi v emonet ar yst i mul usby t hegov er nment-₹10t r i l l i oni nI ndi aand$2t r i l l i oni nUSwor t hofeconomi cr escue packages.

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 Hi ghersav i ngs:I nv est mentf r om r et ai l i nv est or si nQ1FY21shotup78%QoQt o ₹33, 731cr or ei nt hecashsegment .Thenumberofdemataccount shav eal so j umpedby2.

9mi l l i onf r om Jant oMay‘ 20.

Gi v ent hehi gherl i qui di t yi nUS( duet or at ecut s&f i scalst i mul us) ,weseeasur gei ni nv est ment s f r om FI I si nt oI ndi aandot herdev el opi ngmar ket s–i tf or ei gnt ouchedawhoppi ng$2.

87bni nJune ‘ 20sur passi ngMar‘ 20i nf l owof$1.

14bn.

Dur i ngt heCOVI Dscenar i o,mar ket ssaw ani ncr easei nt henumberofshor tsel l er s.Oneoft he hi ghesti nt hel ast15y ear s.Howev er ,ast hemar ketkeptr i si ng( opposi t edi r ect i ont ot hei r expect at i ons) ,t heshor tsel l er sneededt ocutt hei rl osses.I nor dert odoso,t heyendedupby buy i ngshar es, whi chl eadt oi ncr easeddemandandhencei ncr easedpr i ces.

I nv est or sar epl aci ngl ar gebet sonsect or ssuchast echandphar ma.Dur i ngt hepandemi c,I T compani eshav emanaged maj orf i xed costr educt i onsand hav esust ai ned t hei rbusi nesses t hr ougha‘ Wor kf r om home’ model .Phar mat oohasgai nedf r om i ncr easedmedi calex pensesand l esserdependencyonChi naf orAPI .Theexpect at i onofbr i ghtf ut ur epr ospect sf ort hecompani es i nt hesesect or shasl edt oar al l yi nt hei rst ocks.

Mor eov er ,compani eswi t hl ar gecashr eser v esandf i nanci alst r engt hwi l lbeabl et oweat her t hr ought hecr i si sandgai nmar ketshar ef r om t hesmal l ercompet i t or sl eadi ngt ohi gherv al uat i on ofsuchst ocks.Apr i meexampl eoft hi si sAsi anPai nt s.St ockssuchasRel i ance,I nf osy s,I CI CI BankandHDFCBankhav emanagedt oi ncr easedt hei rwei ght ssubst ant i al l yandar et hepr i me pl ay er si npul l i ngupt hei ndexandt hemar ket .

OurOpi ni on Gi v ent hel ackofsust ai nabi l i t yoft hef act or scur r ent l ydr i v i ngt hebul l i sht r endoft hest ock mar ket s,t hi sbubbl ei sexpect edt obur stsoonerr at hert hanl at er .Thi si spr i mar i l ybecauset he cur r entpr i cesi nt hemar ketar enotdr i v enbyt hef undament al sbutbyexcessl i qui di t y .

I ndi a’ sNPAcr i si scont i nuest opl aguet hebanki ngsect orandt hedet er i or at i ngf i nanci alheal t h dur i ngt hepandemi ci sonl ygoi ngt ol eadt of ur t herdef aul t spostt hemor at or i um per i odexpi r es ( Oct ’ 20onwar ds) .Thechancesf oraddi t i onalst i mul uspackagear el ow aswehav eal r eady br eachedourf i scal def i ci tt ar get .

Cur r ent l y , t her ei sast ar kdi f f er encebet weent heeconomi cf undament al sofcount r yandt hest ock mar ketr al l ywi t hI ndi ar epor t i nga23.

9% GDPdegr owt hi nQ1FY21wher east hemar ket shav e r al l i edmor et han15%i nt hesameper i od.Thedegr owt hnumber sar ei nf actexpect edt obewor st whendamagesi nt hei nf or mal sect orar et akeni nt oaccount .

Chi nai sI ndi a’ sl ar gestt r adepar t nerwhi chcanbeseent hr oughi t st r adedef i ci tcont r i but i onof

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$53.

6bi l l i on.Ri si ngt ensi onsbet weent hecount r i esandi ncr easedboy cot tofChi nesegoods, especi al l yr aw mat er i al shast hepot ent i alt oi mpactI ndi a’ smanuf act ur i ngabi l i t yanddomest i c busi nessesunt i l t heyf i ndal t er nat i v esuppl i er s.

So,whi l et hehopef orav acci near ef uel l i ngcur r enti nv est orsent i ment ,COVI Dr el at edf at al i t i es andgr i m economi ccondi t i onsar et hepr esentr eal i t y .Thev acci neandsubsequenteconomi c r ecov er yr emai nadi st antdr eam andacor r ect i onoft hest ockmar keti sont hecar dst oconv er ge wi t ht heeconomy .

Thus, west r ongl ybel i ev et hatoneshoul dnev err ungetcar r i edawaybyi ncr easi ngpr i cesbecause “ Thei ndexi sn’ tt her eal wor l d” .

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Sour ces: ht t ps: / / www. wor l dbank. or g/ en/ news/ f eat ur e/ 2020/ 06/ 08/ t hegl obal economi cout l ookdur i ngt hecov i d19pandemi cachangedwor l d

ht t ps: / / www. busi nesst oday . i n/ cur r ent / economy pol i t i cs/ i ndi aneconomy economi cgr owt hst ockmar ket i nv est or sequi t i escov i d19pandemi ccor onav i r us/ st or y / 408626. ht ml ht t ps: / / economi ct i mes. i ndi at i mes. com/ news/ economy / i ndi cat or s/ t wosi desof t hesamecr i si sst ockmar ket sandr eal economy / ar t i cl eshow/ 77256290. cms? f r om=mdr ht t ps: / / www. l i v emi nt . com/ news/ i ndi a/ f i i smakeast r ongcomebackj unei nf l owshi ghest i n2020sof ar 11593348104157. ht ml ht t ps: / / www. bl oomber gqui nt . com/ mar ket s/ economy downst ockmar ket upwhy t hi sdi ssonance ht t ps: / / www. usat oday . com/ st or y / money / 2020/ 08/ 19/ st ockmar ket r ecor deconomy r ecessi oncor onav i r uspandemi cr ecov er y / 3345090001/ ht t ps: / / www. ny t i mes. com/ 2020/ 08/ 20/ opi ni on/ st ockmar ket unempl oy ment . ht ml Quar t zHI SMar ki t ht t ps: / / i ndi anexpr ess. com/ ar t i cl e/ expl ai ned/ st ockmar ket sbsesensexnseni f t y cor onav i r uspandemi c6498459/

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REI Ts:Ri di ngt hewav eofoppor t uni t yandopt i mi sm By :Aay ushSar aogi( TAPMI ) I nt r oduct i on REI TorRealEst at eI nv est mentTr usti samut ualf undofr ealest at e.I tpr ov i dest hef l exi bi l i t yof owni ngmi nuscul est akesi nt her ealest at ei ndust r yacr osssegment s.REI T of f er sext ensi v e di v er si f i cat i onal ongwi t hpr ov i di ngf orachancet oownuni t sofhi ghpr of i l er ealest at ebymaki ng smal l i nv est ment s.

Techni cal l y ,aREI Ti sacompanyt hatowns,managesorf i nancesr ev enuegener at i ngr ealest at e asset s.Ty pi cal l y ,i nv est or sear nt hr ought hef or m ofdi v i dendsandnotsomuchf r om capi t al appr eci at i on.Ther ef or e,i nher ent l year ni ng t hr ough REI Ts depend on t he i ncomegener at i ng capaci t yoft heunder l y i ngr eal est at easset .

TheGl obalCont ext TheUSwast hef i r stt ost ar twi t ht hi sconcepti n1960.Si ncet hen,REI Tshav eev ol v edi nt o35 count r i esacr osst hewor l d.TheUSREI Tshav ecl ockeda$1t r i l l i oncont r i but i oni nequi t ymar ket capi t al i zat i onsi ncei t scr eat i on.Theywer eal socl assi f i edasadi st i nctassetcl assi nt he Gl obal I ndust r yCl assi f i cat i onSt andar d i n2014byMSCIandS&PDow JonesI ndex.Gl obal l yREI Tshav e beent het opper f or mi ngasseti n6oft hel ast15y ear s.I ti ssobecauseoft hehy br i dmodelof equi t yandbond.Si nceaREI Tcanbepubl i cl yt r aded,i tof f er st hef eat ur eofequi t yal ongwi t ha st abl edi v i dendi ncome, l i ket hatofabond.

* Sour ce:ht t ps: / / www. r ei t bot s. com/ en

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I nt heabov e8count r i es,REI Tsf or msanav er ageof6%asacont r i but ort oGDP,al ong wi t h 8% i nt heov er al lmar ketcapi t al i zat i on.Thesenumber sgo on t o show how si gni f i canti st hei mpactofREI Tsi nt heov er al l i nv est orappet i t e.

RI ETI ndexv sGl obalI ndex

* Sour ce:Nov elI nv est or Fr om t heabov et wof i gur es,weobser v et hatREI Tscanbecl assi f i edasmoder at el yr i skyasset s y et

pr ov i di nghi gherdi v i dendy i el donanav er agewhencompar edt ot hemar ket .Thi scl assi f i esREI T

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asabet t er pl acedassett hanbondsandpr ov i desf orst abl ei ncomegener at i on.Dur i ng2008 r ecessi on, REI Twashar derhi tt hant hegl obalequi t ymar ket s,howev er , i tr ecov er edsubsequent l y t obecomet hebestper f or mi ngassetcl assi nt he3y ear ssequent i al l ysi nce2010.

DeepDi v i ngi nt oREI Ts Cont r ar yt ot hepopul arnot i on,REI Ti snotonl yaboutmal l s.I ti nv ol v esahostofot hercat egor i es i nt her eal est at esegment .Someoft hem ar ement i onedbel ow.

1.Dat a Cent r es REI Ts – Pr oper t i es t hose ar e used t o st or e dat af r om l ar ge cor por at i on/ gov er nment .

2.Heal t hcar eREI Ts–Apar tf r om t y pi calhospi t albui l di ngsi tal soi ncl udesnur si ng f aci l i t i es, r esear chuni t sandol dagehomes.

3.Ret ai lREI Ts–Mal l sbei ngt het y pi calconst i t uent ,i tal soi ncl udesst andal one r et ai l uni t sf ort hel ar gef r anchi seoft hewor l d.E. g.McDonal d' s.

4.Hot el s&Resor t sREI Ts–Thesei ncl udeowni ng,management ,l easi ngofhot el andr esor t sr eal est at e.

5.I ndust r i alREI Ts – Management& owner shi p ofi ndust r i aluni t si ncl udi ng war ehouses, f act or i eset c.

6.Mor t gage REI Ts – These own col l at er al i zed commer ci aland r esi dent i al mor t gagesecur i t i es.

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Ret ai Hot el & Heal t hcar Mor t gag I ndust r i al Dat aCent r e

* Sour ce:ThomasReut er s Asweknowt hatcor onav i r uspandemi chasf or cedev er y onet obeconf i nedt ot hei rhomes.Thi s hashadasi gni f i cantnegat i v ei mpacti nt hecommer ci al ,r esi dent i al ,r et ai landhospi t al i t ysect or s.

Howev er ,wi t hmor eadopt i oni nt heeCommer cesegmentandor gani zat i onsmov i ngt owar ds di gi t i zat i on, weobser v et hatdat acent r eshav eout per f or medev er yot herREI Tcat egor y .Mor eov er , suppl ychai nact i v i t i eswer esi gni f i cant l yi mpact edduet owor l dwi del ockdown.Hencei tbecame i mpor t antt oi ncr easet hel ev el ofst ocksandt her ef or et heneedt ol easeoutwar ehousespace.We obser v et hi sphenomenoni sr ef l ect edi nt heI ndust r i al REI Tcat egor y .

TheSt or ybackhome–I ndi a Af t erunder st andi ngt hegl obalREI Ti ndust r y ,i t st i met hatweunder st andt heI ndi ancont ext .

Howev er , bef or eget t i ngi nt oREI T, l et ' shav eal ookatt her eal est at esect or ’ sper f or manceov ert he l asty ear .

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* Sour ce:ht t ps: / / www1. nsei ndi a. com/ Rebasedt o100

Af t eraper i odofboom, t her esi dent i alr ealest at ehasmor eorl essr emai nedst agnantaf t er2010.

Thi scanbeat t r i but edt omanyf act or swi t ht hemosti mpor t antbei ngt hatmi l l enni al sdon’ tl ookat pr oper t yf ori nv est ment s.Thenextgener at i onofci t i zenswantmor ef l exi bi l i t yandhencedon’ t wantt oi nv esti npr oper t i es.Rent alpr oper t i esgi v et hem t hi sf l exi bi l i t y .Thus, r ealest at esect orhas beenst r uggl i ng.

ButwhataboutREI Ts TheSecur i t i esandExchangeBoar dofI ndi a( SEBI )appr ov edt hef or mat i onofREI Tsonl yi n2014.

Wi t ht hef i r st ev erRs4, 750cr or eREI Ti ssuebei ngl i st edont hest ockexchangesbyEmbassyi n 2019.Thenextki dont hebl ockwasMi ndspaceBusi nessPar kREI T,whi chr ai sedRs4, 500and wassubscr i bed13t i mesi nt hepandemi csi t uat i on.I tal sodebut edatapr emi um of9.

81%ont he l i st i ngday .

I ndi ahascaughtonl at ei nt hegl obalREI Ti ndust r y ;howev er ,t hepandemi chaspl acedI ndi ai na v er ysweetspot .REI Tsar ear el at i v el ynewconceptf ori nv est or sandt hei deaofpool i ngpr oper t i es i nI ndi ahadnotexi st edt r adi t i onal l y .

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Si gni f i canti nv est ment sar ebei ngmadebyt het echgi ant soft hewor l di nI ndi aandasweal lknow t hatdat ai st henewoi l .Ther ef or e, dat acent r eswoul dbeneededt ost or et hehugeamountofdat a bei nggener at edbyt he2ndmostpopul ouscount r yi nt hewor l d.Mor eov er , t hi si ssuppor t edbyt he r egul at i onswhi chwi l l demandt ost or eal l dat aofI ndi anci t i zensl ocal l y .

Anot herst r at egi csect ori sheal t hcar e.Wi t hheal t hcar eunder goi ngnumer ousr ef or msandt he gov er nmentpr epar i ngi t sel fbet t erbysi gni f i cant l yi nv est i ngi nheal t hi nf r a,woul dencour age pr i v at epl ay er saswel l .Thi si ncor por at esanot heroppor t uni t yf orREI Ts. Mov i ngon, asI ndi ansemer geoutoft hi spandemi cmostoft hebuy i ngwoul dshi f tonl i ne, r angi ng f r om v eget abl est ocar s.Tosubst ant i at ewi t hananecdot eWal mar townedAmazonhadi ncr eased i t swar ehousecapaci t yby20%t aki ngi t st ot alv ol umeoft hewar ehousest o32mi l l i oncubi cf eet .

Thi si ncr easesi t snumberofwar ehousesf r om 19i n2017t o60i n2020.Thesewar ehousesar eon l easeandwoul dneedef f i ci entmanagement .Si mi l arsui t swi l lmostl i kel ybef ol l owedbyFl i pkar t , Ji oandDMar t .I ti sonl yamat t eroft i met hatt heset aket hef or m ofi ndust r i al REI T.

* Sour ce:ht t ps: / / www1. nsei ndi a. com/ Rebasedt o100

EmbassyREI Thasout per f or medNSEReal i t ydur i ngt hepandemi caswel l .Thi s showst hest r ongqual i t yoft heREI Tasset .

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Concl usi on Whi l ei tmayt aket i mef orI ndi ani nv est or st ocat chupont hegl obal REI Ti ndust r y , i thassi gnsofanopt i mi st i cf ut ur e.

1.Di v er si f i cat i on – I nv est menti n REI T pr ov i des f oran ext r a cushi on i n di v er si f i cat i on benef i t s.Gi v en i t s hy br i d modelREI Ts wi l lbecome t he di v er si f i cat i oni ndi sgui se.Mor eov er ,i tof f er ssect or aldi v er si f i cat i onaswel l .

E. g.Dat aCent r e, heal t hcar e, war ehouseet c.

2.Al t er nat i v et of i xedi ncome–AsRBImai nt ai nsanaccommodat i v est ance wi t hRepor at e,whi chi satmul t i y earl ows,hasdi mi ni shedt her et ur nsf r om t hef i xeddeposi t , r ecur r i ngdeposi t s, sav i ngsdeposi t set c.REI Tbecomest he nextbestal t er nat i v ef orcompar at i v el ysaf eri nv est ment s.

3.LegalFr amewor k–Wi t hSEBIbei ngt hepr i mar ycust odi anf ordr af t i ngt he f r amewor k, i thasensur edt hepr ot ect i onoft hei nt er estoft hei nv est or s.Thi s hasbeendonei nconsul t at i onwi t hsev er alst akehol der sandt hegui del i nes hav eunder gonemul t i pl eamendment st oi ncent i v i zeREI Ti nv est ment s.

4.Taxst r uct ur e–TheGov t .ofI ndi apr oposedt ot axdi v i dendi ncomef r om t he handsoft heshar ehol der .Si ncemaj orear ni ngst hr oughREI Ti st hr ough di v i dends, i twassupposedt obecomeahur dl ei nREI Ti nv est ment s.Howev er , wi t ht hel at estf i nancebi l lamendment , i thasexcl udedREI Tf r om t hepur v i ew oft hi st axst r uct ur e, f ur t hergi v i ngaboostt ot heREI Ti ndust r y .

Thesef act or ssuppl ementt hev ar i ousoppor t uni t i esi nt hedat acent r e,war ehouseandheal t hcar e i ndust r i est hatI ndi ai ssett oachi ev e.Al t hough, REI Tbei ngi nanascentst agei tdoespr ov i def ora pr omi si ngf ut ur ef ori nv est ment si nI ndi a.

Last l y ,“ Gamesar ewonbypl ay er swhof ocusont hepl ay i ngf i el d–notbyt hosewhoseey esar e gl uedt ot hescor eboar d. ”–War r enBuf f et .

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Economi cgr owt hbey ondGDP By :Sr i r am SandeepGhant a&Tej aswi niChal amal set t y( TAPMI ) “ Whati sgr owt h? ”ort obepr eci se“ Whati seconomi cgr owt h? ” Hav ey ourt hought sst ar t edr ev ol v i ngar oundt heev erov er r at edi ndi cat or“ Gr ossDomest i cPr oduct ( GDP) ? ” Butt owhatext enti st hi st houghtpr ocessr easonabl e.I sGDPr eal l yawhol esomer epr esent at i on oft heeconomi cgr owt hi nacount r y ?Ther esponseswoul dbemi xed.Ther ealeconomyact ual l y gi v esamuchl ar gerpi ct ur et hant hemar keteconomyest i mat edbyGDP,i ti ncl udesmanyt hi ngs t hatsuppor thumanwel l bei ng.GDPwasnev erdesi gnedt or epr esentt hesoci et alwel l bei ngbuti n manyscenar i os, i thasbeenmi susedt or epr esentt hesame.

I ti st hatt i mewher et hewhol ewor l dshoul dst ar tr eal i zi ngt her eal i t yofouruneconomi cgr owt h pol i ci esandpr act i cesandshoul dst ar twor ki ngt owar dsasust ai nabl esoci et yf ort hepr osper i t yof ev er y one.TheUN Sust ai nabl eDev el opmentGoal si ni t i at i v ei sast ept owar dst hi sdi r ect i on.An ext ensi v eandexcessi v ef ocusonGDPi sact ual l ymaski ngsomesi gni f i cantuneconomi cf act or si n t hesoci et ysuchascl i mat echangeandi ncomei nequal i t y .

Ther ei saneed f oraddr essi ng t hel i mi t at i onsofGDP,asi ti snotser v i ng t hepur poseof r epr esent i ngt heent i r esoci et alwel l bei ng.Ther eshoul dbesomeot heri ndi cat or sal ongwi t hGDP t or epr esentt heov er al lgr owt hofaneconomy .Thesemet r i csshoul dcompl ementGDPi nor dert o getacompr ehensi v ev i ewofdev el opmentanddoesn’ tnecessar i l ypr i or i t i zeeconomi cgr owt h.

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Somecount r i esar eal r eadywor ki ngt owar dst hi sdi r ect i on.Fori nst ance,I ndi ai sconsi der i nga met r i ccal l ed “ EaseofLi v i ng I ndex”whi ch measur est hr eei mpor t antf act or squal i t yofl i f e, economi c abi l i t y and sust ai nabi l i t y .Bhut an i s al so at t empt i ng t o measur e Gr oss Nat i onal Happi ness,whi ch consi der s economi c dev el opmentand good gov er nance.Uni t ed Nat i ons Dev el opmentPr ogr amme( UNDP)al socoi ned“ HumanDev el opmentI ndex”whi chemphasi zes heal t handknowl edgeapar tf r om economi cpr osper i t y .

Goi ngbackt ohow GDPt ooki t sbi r t h,i twasapr oductofwar .JohnMay nar dKey neswhowas wor ki ngi nUK Tr easur ywant edt oest i mat ewhatt heBr i t i sheconomycoul dpr oducewi t hi t s av ai l abl er esour ces.Heest i mat edi twi t ht hehel pofi nt r oduct i onofawhol enewconceptwhi chi s t hesummat i onofConsumpt i on,I nv est mentandGov er nmentSpendi ng.Thi sconcepti scal l ed Gr ossDomest i cPr oduct( GDP) .Butameasur ewhi chwascr eat edwaybacki nest i mat i ngwar t i me pr oduct i oncapabi l i t i esobv i ousl ywi l l hav edr awbacksi nt het i meofpeace.

GDP, bydef i ni t i oni st heaggr egat ev al ueofgoodsandser v i cespr oducedi nacount r y .Howev er , i t doesnotaccountf orposi t i v eornegat i v eef f ect scr eat edi nt hepr oduct i onpr ocess.Expl ai ni ngt hi s i nl ay mant er ms, consi deraut omobi l epr oduct i on, ul t i mat el yt heel ementofi nt er esther ewoul dbe numberofaut omobi l espr oducedbuti tdoesnotconsi dert hef act or ssuchast heemi ssi ont hey gener at eandot hersucht hi ngs.

Env i r onment al degr adat i oni sakeyext er nal i t yt hatGDPf ai l edt or ef l ect .Pr oduct i onofmor egoods mayenhancet heeconomybutatt hesamet i me,i tcancauseal otofenv i r onment aldamage.So accor di ngt ot hi s, acount r yl i keI ndi ai sconsi der edt obeonagr owt hpat hev ent houghi t sNCRi s f i l l edwi t hsmogev er ywi nt er .

GDP al so f ai l st o addr esst heunequali ncomedi st r i but i oni nt hesoci et y ,somet hi ngt hati s

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becomi ngmor eper t i nenti nt hesoci et y .I ft heeconomi csi zesoft wonat i onsar esi mi l ar ,butt he i ncomedi st r i but i oni sequali noneandunequali nanot her , t henGDPcannotdi f f er ent i at ebet ween t het wo.

I ni nst ancesofmanmadeornat ur aldi sast er s,t her ei sal otofdamaget opr oper t yandpeopl e.I t t akes sol di er s,heal t h wor ker s,const r uct i on wor ker s,et c.t or ebui l d af t era di sast er .The empl oy mentoft heseper sonnelf orr ebui l di ngwi l lboostt heGDPandi gnor est hedamagecaused bydi sast er s.

ManyNGOswor kf orsoci alcausest her ebyi mpr ov i ngt hel i v el i hoodsofpeopl e.Theydonot char geanymoneyf ort heser v i cespr ov i dedbyt hem.Thi swor kdoesnotcont r i but ei ni ncr easi ng GDP.Ther ear echancest hati tact ual l ydecr easesGDPduet ot hewor kv ol unt eer sdowhi chwoul d hav ebeendonebyacor por at eorgov er nmenti nst ead.

GDPconsi der sonl yt heposi t i v eext er nal i t i esassoci at edwi t hi t scomponent sandi gnor est he negat i v eext er nal i t i est hatar i seconsequent l y .Ther emi ghtcomeapoi ntatwhi cht henegat i v e aspect swi l lout wei ght heposi t i v easpect sandl eadt heeconomyt oadi r esi t uat i on.Hence,i t l eadst obi asedconcl usi ons.

I ti sev enmor ei mpor t antt or econsi dert hi smeasur edur i ngunpr ecedent edt i mesl i ket hese.

COVI D19hasnegat i v el yaf f ect edpr oduct i onandconsumpt i onr at esl eadi ngt oaconsi der abl ef al l i nGDPacr ossal lcount r i es.Thoughi tr ef l ect st hel ossesi ncur r edbyv ar i ousbusi nessesduet o l ockdownandot herr egul at i onsbutt hatal onedoesn’ tmeant hatt hewel f ar eandwel l bei ngof i ndi v i dual shasbeenaf f ect edi nt hesameway .Peopl ecanbehappyev enwi t houtconsumpt i onof f ew pr oduct sandsav et hemoneyi nst ead.Thesesav i ngscanbeusedf orconsumpt i oni nt he f ut ur eandt hi si snott akeni nt oaccounti nGDP. AsRober tKennedyputi nhi sf amousel ect i onspeechi n1968, “ GDPmeasur esev er y t hi ngi nshor t , exceptt hatwhi chmakesl i f ewor t hwhi l e. ”

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Ref er ences:  ht t ps: / / www. nat ur e. com/ news/ dev el opment t i met ol eav egdpbehi nd1.

14499  ht t ps: / / www. cl i f f snot es. com/ cl i f f snot es/ subj ect s/ economi cs/ what ar et headv ant agesanddi sadv ant agesof gr ossdomest i cpr oduct  ht t ps: / / qui ckonomi cs. com/ l i mi t at i onsof gdpasani ndi cat or of wel f ar e/

RBIOper at i ont wi st By : Kaushal enderKumarVar ma( I I M Amr i t sar ) OpenMar ketOper at i ons( OMO)i sanact i v i t yunder t akenbyt hecent r albankofacount r y( The Reser v eBankofI ndi a,i nourcount r y ’ scase)t omani pul at et heamountofl i qui di t yi nt hemar ket , andal sot heexi st i ngi nt er estr at es.Thi si sdonebyei t herbuy i ngorsel l i nggov er nmentsecur i t i es ( GSecs)i nt heopenmar ket .

Ther ei sadi st i nct i v er el at i onshi pbet weent hesuppl yofmoneyi nt heeconomyandt heshor tt er m i nt er estr at es.Whent her ei sani ncr easeddemandf ormoney ,t heRBIgoest ot heopenmar kett o buyaf i nanci alasset ,l i keGSecs.Topur chaset hem,t hebankhast opr i ntmor emoney ,whi chi n t ur ni ncr easest heamountofcur r encyi nci r cul at i on.Howev er , whent hebanksel l st hesesecur i t i es, t hel i qui di t yi nt hemar keti sr educed.Whenbot hbuy i ngandsel l i ngi sdonesi mul t aneousl y ,t hese unconv ent i onalmeasur esar et er med,“ Oper at i onTwi st ” ,andt heywer eunder t akenf ort hef i r st t i mebyt heUSFeder al Reser v ei n2011, t or ecov erf r om t heGl obal Fi nanci al Cr i si sof2008.

RBIt oodeci dedt hatt oi ncr easel ongt er mi nv est menti nt hecount r y ,i tneedst osi mul t aneousl y sel lshor tt er m secur i t i esandbuyl ongt er m secur i t i est hr ought heopenmar ketoper at i ons.I twas donekeepi ngi nmi ndt hati nv est or sseemedr el uct antt oi nv esti nt heI ndi aneconomyov erl ong per i ods,andi twascl eart hatt heRBIneededt ost epi nandl owert hei nt er estr at esf orl ongt er m i nv est i ng.Thi s, i nt ur n, woul dhav eensur edt hatpeopl ecoul dav ai l l ongt er ml oansatl owerr at es.

I twoul dpr ov et obeanexcel l entst i mul usf orspendi ng,ast heexpect edr et ur nsf r om l ongt er m sav i ngswi l lr educe,pr i v at esect orbor r owi ngwi l li ncr easeandacat al y stf orgr owt hwi l lbe pr ov i ded.RBIhasal sobeendoi ngt heseoper at i onst or ecal i br at et hesov er ei gny i el dcur v e, especi al l yt oensur el owery i el dsatt heshor t erendoft hecur v e.

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Why“ Twi st ” , andi t ssi gni f i cancedur i ngt hePandemi c– Si nceMar choft hi sy ear , t heRBIhasconduct edmanysi mul t aneoussal esandpur chasesofshor t t er m andl ongt er m secur i t i es,r espect i v el y .Thi shasbeendonekeepi ngi nmi ndt heuncer t ai nt y i nducedbyt heCov i d19pandemi cal lov ert hewor l d,andt hei mmedi at el i qui di t ycr unchi mposed byi tont heI ndi aneconomy .Thei deabehi nd“ Twi st ”i st hatbondpr i cesandy i el dsmov ei nv er sel y , t her ef or epur chasi ngofl ongt er m secur i t i esdr i v est hei rpr i cesupandy i el dsdown,andatt he samet i mesel l i ngofshor tt er m bondscausest hei rpr i cest of al landy i el dst oi ncr ease.When consi der edi nt hei rent i r et y , t heset woact i onst wi stt heshapeoft hey i el dcur v e.

Thet i mesar et ough,andunpr ecedent ed.RBIwasl ooki ngf orsomeunconv ent i onalopenmar ket oper at i onst ost i mul at ei nv est mentandeconomi cgr owt h,asi twasf astbecomi ngappar entt hat r epor at eoper at i onsar enothav i ngt hedesi r edr esul t s.Publ i cl ender swer eshowi ngconser v at i sm and r i gi di t yi ni nt er estr at ebenef i tt r ansmi ssi on,and t hatwashamper i ng t hegov er nment ’ s obj ect i v eofbr i ngi ngdownl ongt er ml oani nt er estr at es.

Si nceFebr uar y2020,RBIhasgi v en135basi spoi ntwor t hofbr eat hi ngspacet obanks,howev er t hebankshav enotpassedi tonf ul l y ,opt i ngi nst eadt obol st ert hei rweakf i nanci al s.Twi sti sone oft henewopt i onsatt hedi sposalofRBI , andi t sef f ecthasst ar t edshowi ngonmar ketsent i ment aswel lasony i el dsof1y eart r easur ybi l l s,whi chhav ei ncr easedsi gni f i cant l y ,andal soont he10 y earGSecy i el ds, whi chhav emoder at edsl i ght l y .

I mpactonGov er nmentbor r owi ng– Thegov er nmenti sf aci ngamassi v er esour cecr unch.Taxcol l ect i onshav est agnat edduet ot he

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cr ushi ngi mpactoft hel ockdownonbusi nesses.Consequent l y ,bor r owi ngneedst obei ncr eased t osuppor texpendi t ur es.Her e,t hesi gni f i canceofTwi stbecomescl ear .Si ncei thel pedt heRBIi n r educi ngt hel ongt er my i el ds,i tdi r ect l yhel pedt hegov er nmentr ai secapi t alatal owerexpense andensur edt hati t sr epay mentwi l lnotbeasdi f f i cul tasi twoul dhav ebeenatt hepr ev i ousl ev el s ofl ongt er m bondy i el d.

Letusconsi derasi mpl eexampl e– Lett hepr i ceofa10y earGSecbeRs2000, wi t hani nt er estr at eof10%( Rs.200) .

TheRBIst epsi nwi t hhugepur chaseofl ongt er m bonds.Thi si ncr easest hepr i ceoft hebondi n t hesecondar ymar ket , t osay , Rs2100, becauseofhi ghdemand.

Now, whenev erani ndi v i dualwi l lbuyt hebondatRs2100, hewi l lr ecei v et hei nt er estamountofRs 200onl y , whi chi st hesameamountwhi chi sbei ngr ecei v edbyani ndi v i dualwhobr oughtt hebond f orRs2000.Hence,t hey i el dhasf al l enf r om 10%t o9.

52%,i . e.pr i cei ncr eased,y i el ddecr eased.

Thi sr at ewi l l beusedasabenchmar kbyot herf i nanci al i nst i t ut es’ t opr i cet hei rl ongt er ml endi ng.

I mpactofext er nalbenchmar ksonr at et r ansmi ssi onandadmi ni st er edi nt er estr at es– I n2019,t heRBIhadaskedal lbankst omov eal lf l oat i ngr at ebusi nessl oanst oanext er nal benchmar kt ohast enr at et r ansmi ssi on, whi chhi t her t ohadbeenf aci ngmul t i pl er oadbl ocks.Si nce t heMonet ar yPol i cyCommi t t eer epor tofOct ober2019,RBIhasobser v edt hatl endi ngi nt er est r at eshav ei mpr ov ed,wi t hdr opsof6t o73bpsbei ngr epor t ed,r angi ngf r om Vehi cl et oMSME l oans.

Oneoft hemaj orf act or swhi chpr ov i desst abi l i t yt ot hei nt er estr at est r uct ur ei nI ndi ai st he “ Admi ni st er ed i nt er estr at es”on smal lsav i ngs i nst r ument s.The i nt er estr at es on t hese i nst r ument si sbenchmar kedt ot hesecondar ymar kety i el dsofv ar i ousGSec’ sofcompar abl e mat ur i t i es.Duet oTwi st ,t hesey i el dshav ei ncr easedconsi der abl y ,andasar esul tt hei nt er est r at esonsmal lsav i ngsi nst r ument shav eappr eci at ed, whi chmor et hancompensat ef ort hei l l i qui d nat ur eoft hesef i nanci al i nst r ument s.

Thi shascomei npar t i cul ar l yhandyf ort hecommonman,ast hegov er nmenthasr ecent l yhadt o cutt hei nt er estr at esonal lsmal lsav i ngsi nst r ument sshar pl y , r angi ngf r om 70t o140bps, except t hesav i ngsaccount .

Fut ur eappl i cat i onsoft heOper at i onTwi stbyt heRBI – Thel at estTwi sti sschedul edf ort he1stofOct ober .Thebankhasdeci dedt obuysecur i t i es

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mat ur i ngbet ween2025and2029.Thi swasdeci dedi mmedi at el yaf t ert heRBIdi dnotgoahead wi t hi t spl anofpur chasi ngRs10, 000Crwor t hofbondsf r om t hemar ket ,i ndi cat i ngt hef actt hat per hapst hebankwasnotr eadyt oof f erasmuchhi ghy i el dsast hebi dder sexpect ed.

I mpactofCov i d19onI ndi anandGl obalf i nanci alsy st em By :Vai shnav iAgr awal( SRCC)

Thegl obalpandemi chasemer gedast he“ bl ackswan”ev entwhi chwi l lr equi r esev er alnot abl e measur esf r om gov er nment sacr osst hegl obet ohel pr esumef i nanci alst abi l i t y .Al t houghCOVI D19i saheal t handhumani t ar i ancr i si s,y ett heeconomi c,busi ness,andf i nanci ali mpacthasbeen pecul i arandpr of ound.Si ncet heout br eakoft heCOVI D19pandemi c,t her ehasbeenashar pf al l i nt hepr i cesofr i skasset s.

Vol at i l i t yhashi nder ed, i nsomecasest ol ev el sl astseendur i ngt hegl obalf i nanci alcr i si sof2008.

Wi t ht het hwar ti nv ol at i l i t y , mar ketl i qui di t yhaswi t her ednot abl y , asar esul t , t heassetpr i ceshav e mov ed abr upt l y .The economi c and f i nanci aldownt ur n has shown sev er ei mpact si n bot h dev el opi nganddev el opedcount r i es.Count r i esl i keI ndi asawanaby smalsl umpi nt hei reconomy .

Accor di ngt ot heMi ni st r yofSt at i st i cs,I ndi a' sgr owt hi nt hef our t hquar t erof2020wentdownt o 3.

1%whi l eI ndi a’ sGr ossDomest i cPr oductsl i ppedbyashar p23.

9per cent .Thei mpactofCOVI D19ont heI ndi anaswel last hegl obalf i nanci al sy st em i sv i si bl ei neachofi t scomponent s, r angi ng f r om t hef i nanci al ser v i cest ot hef i nanci al mar ket st ot hef i nanci al i nst r ument s.

Thebanki ngsect ori st hemostpr omi nentcomponentoft hef i nanci alsy st em.I ndi anbanksar e

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mai nt ai ni ng cr i t i calst af fatt hei rbr anches,managi ng onl i ne ort el ephoni ci nqui r i es f r om cust omer s,hav edepl oy edmobi l eATMs,andi mpl ement eddoor st epbanki ngandot hercust omer cent er edi ni t i at i v es.Sev er albankshav emadehugei nv est ment si nt er msoft echnol ogyanddi gi t al t r ansf or mat i onov ert hepastcoupl eofy ear s.Manyoft hem, nev er t hel ess, ar est i l lr el i antonf acet of acei nt er act i onsandpaper wor k.So,ar enewedr obust nessi nt heI ndi anf i nanci alsy st em i s v i si bl e,wi t hbanksmaki ngauni t edef f or tt oescal at et hei rdi gi t alexi st encei nor dert oi mpr ov e t hei rper f or mances.Asamat t eroff act , t heconsi der abl edecl i nei nt hepr i cesofbankequi t ysi nce mi dJanuar yi ndi cat est hatt hei nv est or sar eper t ur bedaboutt hepr of i t abi l i t yandexpect at i onsf or t hebanki ngsect orasawhol e.Forexampl e,t hebankcapi t al i zat i onmeasur eswhi chwer ebased ont hemar ketpr i cesar enowev enwor set hant hatwaswi t nesseddur i ngt hegl obalf i nanci al cr i si s of2008i nsev er alcount r i es.Theconcer ni st hatbanksandot herf i nanci ali nt er medi ar i esar e act i ngasanampl i f i erast hecr i si sdeepensf ur t her .Thi swi l lbecr i t i calast hepandemi ci sl i kel yt o hav eapr ol ongedi mpact ,andt hebanki ngsy st em i ssomet hi ngt hatt ouchesev er ypar toft he economy .

Fol l owi ngt hest r ongcor r el at i onwi t ht hei ndi cesandt r endsoft hegl obalmar ket ,t heNi f t y50and BSESensexf el lbyabout38per centsi nceMar choft hi sy ear .NSENI FTYf el l1150poi nt s( 12.

98%) whi l eSENSEXf el l4000poi nt s( 13.

15%) .I nt heessenceoft hi s,t hev ol at i l i t i esofoi landequi t i es hav espi kedt oal ev elofcr i si s; andt hecr edi tspr eadsonnoni nv est mentgr adedebthav ewi dened shar pl yasi nv est or st endt or educer i sks.Thest ockmar kethasev i dent l yr ef l ect edt hesent i ment s unl eashedbyt hepandemi cupont hei nv est or s.Manymar ketanal y st sbel i ev et he2020st ock mar ketcr ashev enwor set hant hatof2008.

Asf i r msar ebecomi ngdi st r essedandt hedef aul tr at esar er i si nghi gher ,t hecr edi tmar ket shav e al mostcomet oast op,especi al l yi nsegment st hathav ecompar at i v el yhi gherr i sksl i kehi ghy i el d spr eads,pr i v at edebtmar ket s,andl ev er agedl oans.Si nceear l yMar ch,hi ghy i el dspr eadshav e sky r ocket edi nspi t eoft her ecentdecl i nes,par t i cul ar l yi nt hesect or swhi chwer emostaf f ect ed becauseoft hepandemi cl i keener gyandt r av el .Si mi l ar l y , t hepr i cesofl ev er agedl oanshav ef al l en shar pl y .Asaconsequence,r at i ngagenci eshav ehadanupwar dr ev i si ont or ecessi onar yl ev el s f r om t hei rspecul at i v egr adedef aul tf or ecast s,andt her ehasbeenast eadyr i sei nt hemar ket i mpl i eddef aul t saswel l .

Fi nanci ali nst r ument s( cov er ed underI ndAS 109)such as t r ade,l oans,and ot herl oan commi t ment s,f i nanci alguar ant ees,i nv est ment si ndebti nst r ument s,andr ecei v abl esar esubj ect t oani mpai r mentl oss.I nt heset i mesoff i nanci alcr i si s,bor r ower smayt r yandr enegot i at et he t er msofr epay ment ,post ponementofr epay ment ,orot herconcessi onsl i kel oweri nt er estr at es.

Thoughl ender smustr ecogni z et hehi gherl i f et i meexpect edcr edi tl osspr ov i si onduet oanev i dent i ncr easei ncr edi tr i sk.

Equi t yi nv est ment sandmut ualf undshav eexper i encedasi gni f i cantdecl i nei nt hei rf ai rv al ue.The Ent i t i est hathav eent er ed i nt o cash f l ow hedgi ng pr ogr amst o mi t i gat ef or ei gn cur r encyor commodi t ypr i cer i skoft hei rf or ecastsal esorpur chaseneedt oanal y zewhet hert heunder t aken t r ansact i onsasf or ecastandt hei rt i mi ngscont i nuet obeaspr obabl east heywer ebef or e.I ft hi si s

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nott hecase,t her ei sar equi r ementf ormar kt omar ketadj ust ment sr el at edt ot heunder l y i ng der i v at i v econt r act s.Consi der i ngt hei mpactofCov i d19,Ent i t i est hathav er ecogni zeddef er r ed t axasset sneedt or ev i ew t hei rest i mat esoff ut ur et axabl ei ncomeandmayal soneedt owr i t edownt hev al ueofsuchasset s( i ft heyar enotconsi der edr ecov er abl ei naccor dancewi t hI ndAS 12) .

The out br eak ofCOVI D19 r equi r es t he i mposi t i on ofr esi l i ent ,l onger l ast i ng,and endur i ng cont ai nmentmeasur es.Theseact i onsmayl eadt oaf ur t hert i ght eni ngoft hef i nanci alcondi t i ons i ft heyr esul ti namor epr ol ongedandsev er edownt ur n.Suchat i ght eni ngmay ,i nt ur n,expose f i nanci alv ul ner abi l i t i est hatwer ebui l ti nt hepastf ew y ear si nt heenv i r onmentofl owi nt er est r at es.Thi swoul df ur t heri nf l amet heshockcausedbyt heCOVI D19out br eak.

Cent r albanksar epi v ot alt omai nt ai nt hef l owofcr edi tt ot heeconomyandsaf eguar dt hest abi l i t y oft hef i nanci almar ket s.Nonet hel ess, t hi si mpendi ngcr i si si snotonl yconcer nedwi t hl i qui di t ybut i tpr i mar i l yr ev ol v esar oundsol v encyasi nt hepr esentscenar i o,l ar gesegment soft hegl obal economyhav ecomet oacompl et est op.Toget her ,f i nanci al ,f i scal ,andmonet ar ypol i ci esai mt o ensur easust ai nabl eandst eadyr ecov er yoncet hepandemi ci sundercont r olandal sot ocushi on t hei mpactofCOVI D19di st r ess.Ther ef or e,cont i nuousandcl osei nt er nat i onalcoor di nat i onwi l l beext r emel yessent i alt osuppor tv ul ner abl ecount r i es,i nor dert or est or emar ketconf i denceand t ocont ai nt her i sksi nv ol v edi nf i nanci al st abi l i t y .

Ref er ences:  ht t ps: / / bf si . economi ct i mes. i ndi at i mes. com/ bl og/ pot ent i al i mpl i cat i onsof cov i d19-

ont hebanki ngsect or / 4227

 ht t ps: / / www. i i f l . com/ bl ogs/ i mpact cov i d19f i nancei ndust r y  ht t ps: / / www. cxot oday . com/ newsanal y si s/ cov i d19andi t si mpact oni ndi as-

banki ngsect or /

 ht t ps: / / en. wi ki pedi a. or g/ wi ki / Economi c_ i mpact _ of _ t he_ COVI D-

19_ pandemi c_ i n_ I ndi a

 ht t ps: / / www. bl oomber gqui nt . com/ cor onav i r usout br eak/ cor onav i r usout br eakcov i d

19andi t si mpact onf y 20f i nanci al r epor t i ng

24|Page  ht t ps: / / www. cnbct v 18. com/ busi ness/ cov i d19i mpact t obef el t ondr awi ngupof -

f i nanci al st at ement sest i mat es5707241. ht m

 ht t ps: / / bl ogs. i mf . or g/ 2020/ 04/ 14/ cov i d19cr i si sposest hr eat t of i nanci al st abi l i t y /  ht t p: / / www3. wef or um. or g/ docs/ WEF_ I mpact _ of _ COVI D_ 19_ on_ t he_ Gl obal _ Fi nanci a

l _ Sy st em_ 2020. pdf

 ht t ps: / / bf si . economi ct i mes. i ndi at i mes. com/ news/ banki ng/ i mpact of cov i d19-

t aki ngat ol l ongl obal banki ngsy st em/ 74790951

 ht t ps: / / www. wef or um. or g/ r epor t s/ i mpact of cov i d19ont hegl obal f i nanci al -

sy st em

I mpactofTokeni zat i oni nFi nanci alMar ket :ARealEst at ePer spect i v e By :Dhanr ajPat el( I MSBHU) I nt hi ser aofdi gi t i zat i onbl ockchai nt echnol ogi esar egai ni ngmoment um.Thi st echnol ogyi snow di sr upt i ngt hef i nancei ndust r y ,i nasl i ght l ydi f f er entf or m knownast okeni zat i on.Tokeni zat i on

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r ef er st ot hepr ocesswhi chusesbl ockchai nt echnol ogyt ogener at e‘ secur i t yt okens’ whi chcanbe t r adedf ur t herdi gi t al l y .Thesesecur i t yt okenr epr esent sy ourf r act i onofowner shi pi nasai dasset s whi chcoul dbeanequi t y , por t i oni nar eal est at eorowner shi pi nacompany .

Benef i t s: 1.I ncr easei nl i qui di t y-I l l i qui dasset si . e.asset swhi chcannotbeeasi l yt r adedl i ker eal est at e,col l ect i bl es,pr i v at edebtet cwi l lbecomet r adabl eonsecondar ymar ketgi v i ng accesst owi der angeofi nv est or sandbenef i t i ngsel l erast heywoul dbeder i v i ng maxi mum v al uef ort hei rasset s.

2.Fast erSet t l ement– Tokeni zat i onusessmar tcont r act swhi chsel far eexecut i ng cont r act sgov er nedbyal gor i t hmswhi chhav et er msofcont r act sembeddedi nt hem.

Thi spr ocessr educest hepaper wor kand need f ori nt er medi ar i est o compl et et he pr ocess.I ncasesofequi t yt okens, i tcoul del i mi nat et heset t l ementday swhi cht r ader s hav et owai tbef or esel l i ngt hei requi t i esorwi t hdr awi ngmoney .

3.Tr anspar ency–Thet okenscont ai nal lt hei nf or mat i onv ar y i ngf r om t hebuy er / sel l er det ai l st ohi sr i ght sandl i abi l i t i es.Thesei nf or mat i on’ sar ei mmut abl eandcannotbe t amper edwi t h.

4.Wi derAudi ence–I twi l lenabl et hei nv est mentt obemadeongl obalmar ket .Al so, Tokeni zat i onwi l lenabl esmal landmedi um i nv est or st omakei nv est ment sonav enues l i ker ealest at e, ant i queset cbecausenowt heywi l lber equi r edt ospendl essamountas t heywi l l beabl et opur chaset hef r act i onofanasset .

RealEst at e:Needf orTokeni zat i on I ti st hef ast estgr owi ngandi nsepar abl epar tofI ndi aneconomy .Real t ysect orr ankssecond gl obal l yi nt er msofgener at i ngempl oy mentandi sexpect edt oaccountf or13%ofourGDPbyy ear 2025accor di ngt or epor tbyNat i onalRealEst at eDev el opmentCounci l( NAREDCO)andAsi a Paci f i cRealEst at eAssoci at i on( APREA) .Anonl i nesur v eyconduct edbyANAROCK pr oper t y consul t anti nf i r stquar t erof2019,r ev eal edt hat57% ofpeopl ei nI ndi apr ef ert oi nv esti nr eal est at e.Butt hepr ocessi snotassi mpl easbuy i ngast ockorgol dcausi ngav er agei nv est or st o abst ai nt hemsel v es.

I ssuesi ncur r entscenar i o–

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1.Realest at ei sahi ghl yi l l i qui dsegment ;i nv est orcannoti mmedi at el ysel lorbuyt hei r asset s.I tal sohast hemostv ol at i l epr i ci ngat t r i but e.

2.Ther ear emanyi nt r i caci esi nv ol v edi nbuy i ngapr oper t yi nI ndi a.Fr om maki ngan upf r ontpay mentt ot r ansact i on cost s,br oker age char ges,r egi st r at i on f or mal i t i es, st ampdut i esmaki ngi tcumber somef orani ndi v i dual i nv est ort omakeamov e.

3.Thel egalf or mal i t i est hatneedt obef ol l owedaddsf ur t hert ot hi scostofi nv est i ngi n r ealest at e.Fr om per f or mi ngduedi l i genceandensur i ngl egalcompl i ancesweepsaway t hesmal l andmedi um r et ai l i nv est or s Howwoul dTokeni zat i onHel p?

I nr ealest at et okeni zat i on,secur i t yt okensar ei ssued,wher esecur i t ywoul dbeder i v i ngi tv al ue f r om t heunder l y i ngpr oper t y .Theowner shi pi napr oper t ywi l lbedi v i dedi nt opar t swher eeach par twoul dber epr esent i ngaf r act i onofowner shi pi nt hesai dpr oper t y .Theset okenst hen,coul d bemadepubl i cl i keanI POorI ni t i alCoi nOf f er i ng andal l owr ealest at esect or st or ai sef undsf or ongoi ngpr oj ect soral r eadyest abl i shedpr oper t y .Thei nv est or swoul dbegai ni ngonappr eci at i on i nest at ev al ueorf i xedi ncomef r om r ent saccr ued.

Tokeni zedEst at ev .RealEst at eI nv est mentTr ust( REI T) REI Ti sl i keamut ualf undwher eI nv est or s, sponsor s, t r ust eepoolt oget hert of or m anent i t ywhi ch woul down,oper at eandf i nancei ncomegener at i ngr ealest at es.I thel psev er ysi ngl ei nv est ort o ear nt hr oughdi v i dendswi t houtwhol l ymanagi ngt hepr oper t y .REI Ti sar egul at edent i t yi nI ndi a andf al l sundert hepur v i ewofSEBI .I tseemswi t har egul at edent i t yl i keREI Tt her ei snoneedf or t okens, butt okeni zat i onhasi t sownadv ant ages.

1.Real t yt okenswoul dbel easti mpact edbyv ol at i l i t yi nst ockexchanges.REI Tent i t i es ar el i st edonst ockexchangeandt husar esubj ectt of l uct uat i oni nst ocki ndexes.

2.Secur i t yt okenwi l lof f eri nst antset t l ementwher easi nREI Ty ouhav et owai tf orT+ day sdependi ngony ourcl ear i nghouse.

3.Tokeni zat i onwoul del i mi nat ei nt er medi ar i esandwi l lal soal l ow y out oi nv esti n al r eadydev el opedpr oj ect s.

4.Wi t ht okeni zat i oni nv est orwi l lhav et hel i ber t yt oi nv esti nsi ngl er ealest at ei nst eadof i nv est i ngi napool ofpr oj ect s.

5.Nocaponmi ni mum i nv est ment .I nI ndi a,SEBImandat esami ni mum i nv est mentof

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Rs. 50, 000I NRi nREI Twher easi nt okensy st em t hi smi ni mum i nv est mentamountcan beel i mi nat ed.

WayAhead Tokeni zat i onoff i nanci alasset susi ngbl ockchai nseemspr opi t i ousi nt hecomi ngf ut ur e.I twi l l notonl yensur ef i nanci ali ncl usi oni naneconomywhi chi sani nt egr alpar tofadev el opi ngnat i on butwi l lal sopr omot eaheal t hyi nv est menti nf r ast r uct ur e.Needl esst osay , t her ewi l lbenumer ous obst acl esi nachi ev i ngt hi sbutt heycanbeov er comebyt i mel ygov er nmenti nt er v ent i on.I n dev el opi ngcount r yl i keI ndi ai twi l l t akemor et hanadecadef orpeopl et oadoptdi gi t al met hodand mov eawayf r om t r adi t i onalappr oach.A cl earsetofl aw,r egul at i ngbody ,di sput er esol ut i on mechani sm andapr operi nf r ast r uct ur ewi l lt r ansf or mt hewaywei nv esti nr ealest at eandwi l l dr i v enew setofi nv est or swhoar el ooki ngf ordi v er si f i edpor t f ol i osi nr ealest at e.Andwi l lal so encour agesmal l andmedi um r et ai l i nv est or st ocomeup.

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CORONAandThePast r yWor l d By :TAnj anaSur esh( St .Ter esa, Kochi )

Nowaday s,wheny out akeal ookathugenumber sofy ourf r i end’ s'I nst agr am post s,t her ei sa gr eatpossi bi l i t yt hatagr eatdealoft hem ar epi ct ur esofdel i caci est heyhav emadeathome.For aboutsi xmont hsweasawhol ehav ebeencoopedi nathomei nor dert of l at t ent hecur v e.

Becauseoft hi sceasel esspandemi cev er ysi ngl eoneofust ookt oourbor edom byt ur ni ngt o abi l i t i eswenev ert houghtwewoul dacei n.Let ' sf acei t-al ar gepor t i onofust ookupcooki ng.

Ev er yoneoft hoseent i ci ngI nst agr am andYouTubev i deoson' caf ĂŠst y l ef oodathome' ,' banana br eadt r end' and' How t o makecakewi t houtov enoreggs'packedourf eeds,al lt hewhi l e expandi ng ourwai st l i ne.Hasht ags l i ke #st r essbaki ng and #quar ant i nebaki ng on I nst agr am ci r cul at edandbecamev i r al .I nanycase, f orsome, t hepandemi chasendedupbei ngasi gni f i cant bat t l e,wi t h st agger i ng r i ses i n unempl oy mentr at es goi ng up t o 27.

11%.So as t o endur e, i ndi v i dual shav eneededt oj umpt r ackst or est ar tt hei rcar eer s.

Cooki ng, whi chst ar t edasahobbyt oeasest r esssoont ur nedi nt oamodet oear nmoneyf orsome.

Wi t ht heassi st anceofonl i nemedi a,par t i cul ar l yI nst agr am andWhat sAppmanyhav ehadt he chancet oaccompl i sht hi s.Dur i ngt hepandemi c,or gani zat i onshav eseeni ndi v i dual spur chasi ng i nmor ev ol umesast her ecur r enceofv i si t i ngst or eshav edecl i ned.Ascust omer sar ei nv est i ng mor eener gyi nt heki t chen, t heuseofbaki ngi ngr edi ent shasgoneup.Or gani zat i onsl i keTat aand Cadbur yhav eseena60% r i sei nt hei rsal es.Condi ment sl i kebaki ngsoda,cocoapowderand baki ngpowderhav ebecomepar tofFast mov i ngconsumergoods( FMCG) .Wi t hanot i ceabl e i ncr ease i n demand as wel las compet i t i on i nt he gl obalbaki ng mar ket ,sev er aloft hese compani esar ev y i ngf ormor ei nnov at i v epr oduct si nor dert ost ayr el ev ant .Consumerbehav i our haschangedsi ncet hepandemi chi t .Count r i esl i keUKandSpai nhav ewi t nessedsal eoff l our i ncr easi ngf ourt i mest henor malr at e.Ev enaf t ercompani esdoubl i ngt hei rpr oduct i onoff l our , t heyhav enotbeenabl et omeett hedemands.Wi t hmeasur essuchasf oodpr ot ect i oni sm,pr i ces off oodhav egoneup.I nt heUSsal eofy eastgr ew upt o674% i nMar chal one.Packagedf ood cat egor i eshav eexpanded515%dur i ngt hi st i me.Amulhasr epor t edi ncr easesal eofmi l kdur i ng t hi st i me.Sev er alcompani eshav ecomeup wi t h baki ng mi xeswhi ch can pr ov i dean easy al t er nat i v et obaki ngf r om scr at chsi ncet heydonotr equi r et hepur chaseofi ndi v i duali ngr edi ent s.

Thegl obalbaki ngmar ketwhi chst oodatUSD11.

8Bi l l i oni n2016i ssai dt ogr owatar at eof5.

6%.

Manymanuf act ur er shav eal soi ncr easedt hei ri nv est menti nr esear chanddev el opment( R&D)t o cat ert ot heneedsofv ar i ousconsumer si nt hemar ket .

Thedemandf orhomebakedgoodshasl i kewi seexpandedast oundi ngl y .Al ar genumberofus mayhav ecompani onsandev enr el at i v essel l i ngt hei rbakedpr oduct sf r om home.Homebaked goodshav ecr eat edamar ketf ori t sel fwhi chImaysayi sgr owi ngv er ycompet i t i v e.Wi t hhome baker sr eal i zi ngt hi st r ut hmanyhav edi v er si f i edt hei rpr oduct st osugarf r ee, gl ut enf r eeandot her

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cust omi zat i onst osui tt heconsumer ’ sneed.Ev enpar t t i mebaker ssawani ncr easeby30percent i nt hei ror der s.Compani esl i keSwi ggyi sal sohel pi nghomebaker sbydel i v er i ngt hesepr oduct sat consumerdoor st eps.Companywebsi t esl i keDel i shandBet t yCr ockerhav eev engoneont o monet i zet hei rr eci pes.Sear chv ol umef orbr ead-

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r el at edpr oduct sonAmazonhasi ncr easedupt o3, 618%ar oundt hewor l d.Mosthomebaker si n met r oci t i esar eseent ochar geupt oRs1000/ kgf ort r adi t i onalcakesandRs2000/ kgf ormor e cust omi zedcakes.Theser at eshav egoneupsi ncet hepandemi chi t .Accor di ngt oahomebaker i nmyci t yshesel l supt o10cakesamont h, andmakesapr of i tof25%.Thi si ncr easei nbaki nghas al somadet hesal esofbaki ngappl i ancessuchashandwhi sks, br eadmaker sandcakemoul dsgo upt o8%.

Somemayv i ew t hi spandemi casacur seandsomehav et ur nedt hi si nt oanoppor t uni t y .I ti s per hapsdur i ngt hi st i met hatt heDar wi ni anexpr essi onof' sur v i v aloft hef i t t est' st andsmost ev i dent .Ont heof fchancei ft her ei sani ndust r yt hathasdev el opeddur i ngt hepandemi c,i tmust bet hebaki ngbusi ness.Apar tf r om goodt ast e,hy gi eneandqual i t yofi ngr edi ent sar et her easons whypeopl epr ef eror der i ngf r om homebaker s.Al lt hi shast r ul ychangedt hedy nami csoft he baki ngmar ket .Dur i ngt heseunsur et i mespeopl ear ecer t ai nl yseeki ngcomf or ti nf ood.Ther est i l l r emai nsal otofuncer t ai nt yonwher et hi spandemi ci sgoi ngt ol ead.Amongt hi schaospeopl e hav est i l lf oundawayt ogr owst r onger .Somehav egott heoppor t uni t yt ot ur nt hei rpassi oni nt o t hei rj ob.Wi t hav ai l abi l i t yofj obsdecr easi ngar oundt hi st i me,wear egoi ngt oseeaboom of ent r epr eneur swhowi l ll eadt hi scount r yt ogr eat erhei ght s.Thei ref f or t swi l lt r ul yst ar tt hechai nof economi cr ecov er yf ort hi snat i on.

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Chi na’ sMast erPl an:DebtTr apDi pl omacy By : Ni t y aNi gam ( Sy mbi osi sSchoolofEconomi cs)

“ Hi st or yhast aughtust hati nt henameofdev el opmentpar t ner shi ps, nat i onswer e f or cedi nt odependencepar t ner shi ps.I tgav er i set ocol oni al andi mper i al r ul e.I tgav e 1 r i set ogl obal powerbl ocks.And, Humani t ysuf f er ed.“ - Pr i meMi ni st er Nar endr aModi

I nt her acet obecomet he‘ Supr emePower ’ ,Chi nahasal r eadyf or mul at edav er yl ongt er m pl an.

Ov ert hepastsev er al decades, i thasboost edi t seconomybypr oduci ngext r emel ycheapmachi nemadegoodsandhasbecomet hewor l d’ sl eadi ngt r ader .Chi nanow want st oexpandi t smi l i t ar y f oot pr i ntandgr abconsi der abl epowerov ert hewest er ncount r i es.

Ev er ycount r yl ooksf or war dt oenhancei t seconomi cgr owt hasi tpr ecedesr i sei nnat i onali ncome andl i v i ngst andar ds.Butl owi ncomeanddev el opi ngnat i onsf acet hemostobst acl esbecause whi l et r y i ng t o meetev en t hei rbasi c needs,t heycompr omi se on sav i ngsr esul t i ng i nl ow i nv est ment sf ur t herj eopar di si ngt heeconomi cgr owt h( ThePov er t yCy cl e) .

Gl obalor gani sat i onsl i keWTO andI MFkeepat i ghtr ei nonl oansgi v ent ocount r i eswi t hhi gh def aul tr at i ng,howev erChi na schemes t ot ar gett hese count r i es by pr ov i di ng excessi v e concessi onall oansf ort hei rext ensi v ei nf r ast r uct ur alpr oj ect sal ongwi t hopaqueagr eement s ai medatsuppor tf orgeost r at egi cr easonsi ncaseofdef aul t .Br ahmaChel l aneycoi nedt hi s Chi na’ spr edat or yl endi ngpr act i cesas“ Debt Tr apDi pl omacy ” .

Recent l y ,Laoshasf ai l edt omeeti t sdebtobl i gat i onsmuchofi towedt oChi neseSt at eBanks.

Chi na has f i nanced many hy dr oel ect r i ci t y pr oj ect si nt endi ng t o make Laos t he ‘ Bat t er y of Sout heastAsi a’ .I nsuf f i ci entt omeetev ent heannualdebtobl i gat i ons,ashar ehol di ngnegot i at i on hasbeenappr ov edbet weenst at eownedEl ect r i ci t eduLaos( EDL)andChi naSout her nPowerGr i d Co.gi v i ngt hemaj or i t ycont r ol ofLaos’ nat i onal powergr i dt ot heChi nesef i r m.Gai ni ngcont r ol ofa nat i on’ spowersect ori shor r i f y i ngast hewhol ei ndust r i alandt er t i ar ysect or s–t hemai ndr i v er sof economi cgr owt h-ar edependentoni t .Chi nacandomi nat et hesesect or saswel last het r adeand ul t i mat el yest abl i sh i t s aut hor i t yov erLaos.I n addi t i on,t he gov er nment ’ s debt s hav e been i ncr easedf ur t herduet ot heChi nesehi ghspeedr ai l waypr oj ectt hati scur r ent l ybei ngconst r uct ed f r om t heChi nesebor dert ot heLaos’capi t alVi ent i ane.Thi shasageopol i t i cali mpor t ancef or Chi naasLaosi sal andl ockednat i onnei ghbour i ngVi et nam wi t hwhi chi thassourr el at i ons.

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Si mi l arcaseshav ebeenf oundi nZambi awher ePr esi dentLunguaskedChi naf orassi st ancewhen di scussi onsf oral oanwer eunsuccessf ulwi t hI nt er nat i onalMonet ar yFund( I MF) .Fort hi sl oan, Zambi ahadputanat i onal powerpl antast hecol l at er al .

2 Apar tf r om t hi s, Sr iLankagav eawayi t sHambant ot apor tt oChi naf ora99y earl easeaf t erf ai l i ng t or epayi t sdebtobl i gat i ons.Sr iLankabei ngcl oset ooneoft hesi gni f i cantshi ppi ngr out esi nt he I ndi anOcean, Chi nacanuset hepor tf ori t smi l i t ar yandst r at egi cmov ement s.I n2016, Chi namade i tmandat or yf oral lt heChi nesecompani est opr ov i dehel p,war esandot herr equi r ement st oi t s nav yi nt i mesofnecessi t y .

3 The sei nst ancesi ndi cat et hatChi nai si nst i t ut i ngaf or m of‘ debt col oni al i sm’ ,mai nl yi nt he nei ghbour i ng count r i es,assi st i ng i tt o dev el op mi l i t ar y bases est abl i shi ngsuper i nt endencei nt heSout hChi naSeaaswel l asI ndi anOcean.

Somewoul dar guet hatt heseagr eement swi l lhel pChi nai ni t sBel tandRoadI ni t i at i v e( BRI )whi ch i sal soknownast heNewSi l kRoadPr oj ect .Thi swi l li ncl udear oadaswel lasamar i t i mepr oj ect t oj oi nv ar i ouscount r i esf oreasi ert r ader out es.Forexampl e,Chi naPaki st anEconomi cCor r i dor connect i ngChi nat oGwadarpor tofPaki st anont heAr abi anSea.Al most50Speci alEconomi c Zonesi ndi f f er entcount r i esar eal sot obeest abl i shedt oexpandmanuf act ur i nguni t scont r ol l edby Chi na.Thesecount r i eswi l lt her ef or eneedhugeamountofl oanst of undt hei nf r ast r uct ur ewhi ch ar ebei ngpr ov i dedbyChi nai t sel fwi t hl owi nt er estandl i ber alr ul es.Thesei nv est ment sr equi r e opaquebi ddi ngpr ocedur eswi t hmai nl yChi nesecont r act or s.Consequent l y ,cont r act or shav et o dealwi t hi ncr easedcost st y pi cal l yl eadi ngt ocancel l edpr oj ect s.Fai l i ngi nr epay mentr esul t si n sei zi ngasset soft hecount r ybyChi na.I tt her ebygi v esusenoughi ndi cat i onst hatt hedebtt r ap di pl omacyai dsChi nawi t ht heBRIpr oj ectandar et hust hesi desoft hesamecoi n.

Si rWal t erRal ei ghoncesai d,“ whosoev ercommandst heseacommandst het r ade;whosoev er commandst het r adeoft hewor l dcommandst her i chesoft hewor l d,andconsequent l yt hewor l d i t sel f .

Thecasesofcount r i esl i keSr iLankaandLaosf or ceust ot hi nkaboutt hegeopol i t i caland economi ci ncent i v esChi nahav ebehi ndt hesei ni t i at i v es.Ther et ur nofi nv est mentf r om f i nanci ng t hei nf r ast r uct ur alpr oj ect sofot hercount r i eshasl esssi gni f i cancet oChi nat hant hecapaci t yt o i nf l uence t hose count r i es t o adoptChi nese st andar ds i n al lf i el ds.Ther ef or e,t he debt t r ap di pl omacyal ongwi t ht hebel tandr oadi ni t i at i v e( BRI )wi l lai dChi naest abl i shi t saut hor i t yand i ncr easet hei nt er nat i onal useofi t scur r ency -Renmi nbi andul t i mat el yr ei gnast hesuper power .

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