Arbitrage Magazine - March 2021 - Finance and Investment Club | IIM Rohtak

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presents

March 2021 Vol 4 Issue 13

Our best read - The Crypto Coin: Will the World Replace it as the Global Reserve?

Special Mention: Future of education in a postcovid world; and Economic Heterodoxy & The Need of Pluralism: The Way Ahead

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INDEX

S.No.

Article

Page No.

1

The Crypto Coin: Will the World replace it as the Global Reserve?

3

2

Future of education in a post-covid world

9

3

ECONOMIC HETERODOXY & THE NEED OF PLURALISM: THE WAY AHEAD?

12

4

Increasing protectionism and COVID, a perfect cocktail for Deglobalization?

16

5

GameStop Short Squeeze Explained

19

6

Peeking from the Shadows: A Closer Look at the Growth of the Underground Economy

23

7

Gig-Economy: A Sustainable solution?

26

8

Making Financial Market More Inclusive

30

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The Crypto Coin: Will the World Replace it as the Global Reserve?

By: Nishant Satyam & Vasu Golyan (Indian Institute of Management Indore)

“I just think for Fed policy, it’s going to be a dollar economy as far as the eye can see” “Bitcoin does not present a serious threat to U.S. dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency” The US Federal Reserve President, James Bullard, made these statements in strong conviction.

However, the rest of the world does not seem to share the same enthusiasm for the US Dollar as him.

HOW DID WE GET HERE? Summer, 1944. The world was in chaos. The Bretton Woods’ Mount Washington Hotel was abuzz with over 700 delegates from 44 nations as they deliberated over a new financial-world order The Bretton Woods System. The system made sense, at least at the time--pegging the US dollar as the global reserve currency, fixing it to gold at a sweet 35 dollar/ounce. Things changed in 1971 when conversion of the dollar to its equivalent gold value was suspended, supposedly temporarily.

Post that, the exorbitant American privilege, as the French like to put it, has repeatedly come into problems. Be it the something as old as the Vietnam War, or something as magnanimous as the Great Financial Crisis or even something as fresh as China’s challenge to US Hegemony.

One thing is clear, the Dollar’s term as the global reserve currency might be nearing its end. What, however, is not so clear is whether bitcoin, or any decentralised currency, for that matter is going to be taking its place?

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The US Dollar Global Reserve Hegemony though dominant, has increasingly new & strengthened competitors from other global currencies. [Source: Statista]

WHY THE HYPE? The global crisis of ‘08 was followed by innovation in the domain of value-currencies, both from foreign powers as well as ‘cypherpunks’. While the motives of foreign powers like Russia were to induce a global shift in power, the cypherpunks-programmers merely wanted to rid fiat-currency from the control of a constantly changing government. That’s where the disruptive idea of cryptocurrency germinated and gained traction.

The whole issue discussed here emerges from the grassroots of the FinTech revolution, where the necessity of a centralized authority in deciding the value of a citizen’s private money came into question. In a world where hyper-adaptability is the feature that every entity is eyeing, cryptocurrency provides a dynamic process in a relatively static industry.

Lastly, and probably most importantly, in this context, cryptocurrency helps make money less intimidating & serious and more acceptable for the ordinary citizen. It assures its users of privacy and protection against prying eyes, be it from delinquents or the elected government.

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Public Acceptance of Bitcoin drives its Global Value. It is a currency of the people, by the people, free of any government oversight. [Source: MarketWatch/WSJ]

WHAT IS THE COIN? Cryptocurrency essentially is decentralized digital money, with no single individual/organization/country having any control over it. They are based on a technology called Blockchain. There are currently over 6,700 cryptocurrencies globally, with Bitcoin and Ethereum being the most popular ones. The total market cap of all cryptocurrencies combined today is about $ 1.7 Trillion, out of which Bitcoin alone has a market cap of $1 Billion. In comparison, China's Foreign Exchange Reserves alone are $3.15 Trillion.

When we talk about the possibility of cryptocurrency becoming a reserve currency globally, we primarily refer to Bitcoin, as it's the most widely accepted and traded cryptocurrency. The postpandemic times have seen Bitcoin prices soar to record heights and has reignited the debate about its legitimacy as a financial instrument.

WHO IS ACCEPTING THE COIN? What was initiated as a mere peer to peer cross-payment platform, used by a small niche of internet users from the dark corners of the web, today has peeked the interests of buyers, institutional investors and corporate giants.

We have Elon Musk publicly researching bitcoins and then purchasing large chunks of the same.

PayPal, the payment giant, allowing bitcoin payments signaled the world’s acceptability of the coin. Even the Fed itself has rubber-stamped their digital bank’s holding of crypto. Moves by macro-investors like Bill Miller & Paul Tudor Jones and institutions like MassMutual & MicroStrategy Incorporated towards crypto-investment have only reinforced the market sentiments towards decentralised value-currencies.

IS THE COIN, INCONVENIENT? A very institutional and repeated argument against cryptocurrency and, in general, concerning the dollar's replacement as the reserve currency has been that the public desire consistency. When one

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stands in a long queue at the start of the day for their first coffee, they are faced with an overwhelming choice of options there. On top of that, they do not want to decide between paying with Bitcoins, or Dogecoins, or Ethereum, or whatever new currency a self-taught cypherpunk has created in their basement. The dollar makes things simple, and people argue that simplicity is something that need not and can not be replaced.

The Coin Market Explosion; with more than 2000 cryptocurrencies in circulation, it becomes difficult to distinguish & hence find credibility in them. [Source: Coinmarket/VisualCapitalist] While this argument may sound compelling at first glance, and the non-uniformity of currency might come off as real displeasure, we can’t ignore the fact that we already live amidst an intense currency competition. It’s not some intricately engineered phenomenon but the simple working of markets. Investors desire a safe haven, a currency that offers them consistent and stable value. The currency that the masses think offers them these features in the most accessible format trumps all others.

In such a context, we see a two-sided argument unfold. On the one hand, it might be difficult for any other government-controlled currency to out-bid the Dollar in terms of stability and literal ‘value-for-money, which proves that the Dollar indeed is the best candidate for being a global reserve currency. But on the other hand, the very fact that cryptocurrencies do not have a centralised authority overlooking them shower them with this assurance of independence from governmental interventions and manipulations.

Hence, the very argument that strengthened the Dollar’s case for being the global reserve amongst all other fiat-currencies is the one that diminishes its case against bitcoins.

WHAT ARE THE PROBLEMS FOR THE COIN? Amongst the many problems that cryptocurrencies face in displacing the dollar as the reserve currency of the world, the most pressing ones are as follows: •

A Lack of Uniformity

As stated earlier, with over 6,700 different types of cryptocurrencies available and each one having different dollar values, it is impossible to reach a mandate so as to which country adopts which

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cryptocurrency. This non-uniformity is one of the prime reasons why it cannot become the uniform reserve currency of the world.

•

Inadequate Size and volatility

With a combined market cap of $ 1.7 Trillion, it comes nowhere close to the combined foreign exchange reserves of all the countries. The only way this vast gap will be bridged would be by a further appreciation of the already heated prices of many cryptocurrencies. All of this points towards a price-bubble being formed right before our eyes. The past volatility in these assets' prices is all the more reason why countries and central banks worldwide will shy away from making it a reserve currency, which, by definition, stands for reliability and stability.

•

Safety Concerns

Despite the high levels of technology and safety checks built into these cryptocurrencies, theft of digital currencies is a regular occurrence. In 2018, a total of $1.1 Billion worth of cryptocurrency was stolen in the first six-months itself. Such incidents have continued, and as technology gets more and more sophisticated, so will the ransomware designed to dupe it. This threat of theft will keep central banks, the most conservative of financial institutions, from adopting cryptocurrencies as a reserve currency for decades to come.

In the end, the plain argument of the current reserve currency of the US Dollar, being visible, tangible and backed by the most powerful country in the world, will always hold power over the potential challenger - cryptocurrencies, which are digital assets, vulnerable to cybercrime, datacorruption, volatility, and are devoid of any ethos, essentially being distributed over thousands of private computers across multiple countries.

SO, IS THERE A NEW WORLD ORDER IN THE MAKING? However, much we strengthen the case for the coin, we can’t objectively deny the level of dominance that the US Dollar has over all other forms of currency, even, rather, especially cryptocurrencies. This is best displayed by the fact that the prices of Bitcoin even today are reflected in USD terms, but seldom is the USD quoted in terms of Bitcoin. And there are more than just mathematical factors at play here. A decade of breakneck technological change and one twitter-ready entrepreneur cannot change nearly two centuries of global trade and economic inertia that the USD commands.

In the end, we must ask ourselves this question: “Is it the Coin that is increasing in value against the Global Reserve Currency or is it that the Dollar is plummeting against the coin?” While the apparent cyclicity of this question might trivialise its essence, we must note that the real value of Bitcoin is unknown. For the US dollar, we have consumption baskets and inflation-accounting measures in place. For Bitcoin, we have no such benchmark in place. However, this doesn’t mean that crypto-value is a mere speculative value.

The recent unfolding of events in the United States, both at the federal and civil front, has highlighted the uncertainty associated even with the gold-like dollar. Continued geopolitical unrest

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and building debt crises might plunge the world into a scenario where the dollar becomes the volatile-store and bitcoin, the stable one.

In the end, we must take inspiration from Elon Musk’s quote: “You know, what is money? Money is an entry in a database.”, and, this database is innovating. The exponential curve of technology has plunged the currencymarked innovation into overdrive, and quite possibly, we might be staring down the face of a new Bretton Woods system--one that doesn’t involve economists and governments of the world, but a bunch of programmers and cryptographers, ‘mining’ from the comfort of their homes.

REFERENCES: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/16/bitcoin-no-threat-to-dollar-as-worlds-reserve-currency-fedsjames-bullard.html https://seekingalpha.com/article/4400007-how-and-why-bitcoin-become-new-reserve-currency https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/diversification.asp#:~:text=Diversification%20is%20a%2 0risk%20management,any%20single%20asset%20or%20risk. http://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-volatility/ https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/modernportfoliotheory.asp https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.technologyreview.com/2019/02/19/239592/once-hailed-asunhackable-blockchains-are-now-getting-hacked/amp/ https://seekingalpha.com/article/4138817-bitcoin-and-socioeconomics-are-odds https://www.npr.org/2020/02/19/807488229/use-of-u-s-dollar-in-venezuela-sustains-someeconomic-activity-under-u-ssanctio#:~:text=More%20than%20half%20of%20all,counter%20devastating%20U.S.%20oil%2 0sanctions. https://insights.glassnode.com/bitcoin-liquid-supply/ https://online.stanford.edu/future-for-cryptocurrency https://www.finyear.com/Is-Cryptocurrency-the-Future-of-Money_a41914.html https://www.americanexpress.com/us/foreign-exchange/articles/is-global-digital-reservecurrency-on-horizon/ https://www.ft.com/content/366202e0-16dc-48c4-a111-3abfd3d677c2 https://www.coindesk.com/global-reserve-currency-speaking-of-bitcoin

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Future of education in a post-covid world By: Akanksha Dubey (Sai International School, Bhubaneswar) Introduction Never had anyone wondered that a science-fiction story 'The Fun They Had' written by an American writer Isaac Asimov would be of such great relevance in 2020. Yes, it is the same fictional story which used to leave almost all the children spellbound every time they read it.

However, diving into ' the real virtual classrooms' downright straight from the story has all in all changed the genre of it. If the present scenario is taken into account, it no longer remains a mere fictional story.

Present scenario of education An instantaneous shift from real- time interaction in offline classes to sheer virtual interaction in online classes and a distinctive rise of e-learning, whereby teaching is undertaken remotely on digital platforms have made every unimaginable thing about education possible. Covid-stricken world is reeling under stress and we all ought to understand the severity of our actions. There is not even a single sector of global economy which remained unaffected by the pandemic. Of all, education is de facto the most affected even though parents and students have stepped up and embraced the new virtual learning environment. Globally, over 1.5 billion children are out of the classroom. As much challenging as it may look to adapt to the changing education system with no training, insufficient bandwidth, and little preparation, it was equally essential to let the unplanned and rapid shift to online learning happen-the consequences of which still remain oblivious to everyone as to whether it will result in a poor user experience that is unconducive to sustained growth or a new hybrid model of education will emerge with significant benefits.

Impact of covid-19 on education Covid-19 has utterly disrupted the traditional education system and revealed to us a new face of education which was not even thinkable a year back. Even though the concept of e-learning is not new to most of us , it was not as prevalent as it is today. Covid-19 has tailwinded the system of 'online education'. The effectiveness of online education still can't be determined as the sudden transition to e-learning could prove to be disadvantageous to some sections of students while it may be beneficial for others. ~Why a disadvantage?

The reasons backing it up could be many. Some of them are as follows• As per a UNICEF report, only 23% of Indian households have access to the internet for eeducation which leads to a digital divide between haves and have-nots.

• The gap further widens up due to non-accessibility of smartphones by marginalized communities who mainly live in rural areas leading to an urban-rural divide.

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There is also a lack of quality educational content in vernacular languages in e-learning set-up which is an obstacle in the learning process for the students reading in government schools.

Proper implementation of online education can mostly be seen in well-established private schools or schools which are funded well. So is not the case with state-run government schools or newly built private schools because the former lacks technically literate teachers and the latter suffers from insufficient funds to adapt to the virtual environment.

Not all students are bothered about their studies. A survey conducted by EVE (Excellence in Virtual Education) project team reported that 65% of students do not like the virtual environment necessitated by covid-19. Bunking online classes has become a common prospect among students in present days. Students have lost their zeal due to absence of motivational factors.

Further on, less interaction between teachers and students has significantly contributed to below average performance of students. As a matter of fact, 79% of students reported lower overall performance and outcomes, and 59% reported lower test results. It is indeed a daunting prospect.

Advantages of virtual classes can only be reaped with a good and unhindered internet connectivity which in itself is the biggest disadvantage.

~Why an advantage?

As stated already, the whirlpool of all benefits one can reap from e-learning is a good and strong internet connection.

That being said, some of advantages are listed below• Students retain 25-60% more material when learning online compared to only 8-10% in a classroom. This is mostly due to the students being able to learn faster online.

• E-learning requires 40-60% less time to learn than in a traditional classroom setting because students can learn at their own pace, going back and re-reading, skipping, or accelerating through concepts as they choose.

• Traditional system of education doesn't spark creativity among the students which is among the most in-demand skills that today's learners need.

• E-learning has given a new dimension to the existing system of education.

Future of education post-covid "Education is a bulwark against inequalities. In education as in health, we are safe when everybody is safe; we flourish when everybody flourishes."

We must build narratives for what the new reality could look like. We have to nourish the source that gives us hope for rethinking how the world works. The source is none other than education.

Education needs to be at the heart of a post-COVID-19 world. We need boldness of thought and courageous actions now to save the future of education. Below are some of the changes that can be seen in the sector of education after the world heals• Post-covid world will see the emergence of a new educational set-up which would be a perfect integration of both technology and physical settings since neither of them can be

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• •

disregarded as unimportant. Physical classes can not be replicated totally but students can be taught to be technically literate using a range of collaboration tools and engagement methods that promote“inclusion, personalization and intelligence".

Our current education system is built on the Industrial Revolution model.The concept of memorization and standardisation promoted by traditional education will gradually be demoted by a shift in focus towards creativity, adaptability and critical thinking. Integration of information technology in education will be further accelerated and that online education will eventually become an integral component of school education alongside physical classes.

Nevertheless, co-curricular activities can never be compromised no matter how developed we become. They will still remain at the topmost priority even after e-education gains momentum.

Post-covid world would see many collaborations of edtech companies( ex- Byju's, Unacademy etc.) with both government and private owned schools so as to ensure a proper outflow of knowledge to all types of students.

We would see schools coming up with their own user interfaces which would give an option to the students not willing to attend physical classes.

Dependency of students on teachers would rather reduce that would help them become self-dependent and help them gain a rational outlook later in their career.

Conclusion We are seeing resourcefulness, dedication and creativity from the many teachers, families and students who are collaboratively building remarkable learning experiences. Innovation and creativity are ringing loud in the silence of this huge world which has been locked down.

Stakeholders of education - teachers, students and communities - have the potential for transforming education during and after the present crisis. We will definitely see a new face of education after everything gets back to normal.

Sources: www.en.unesco.org www.weforum.org www.cgdev.org

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ECONOMIC HETERODOXY & THE NEED OF PLURALISM: THE WAY AHEAD? By: Rahul Sinha (St. Xavier’s University, Kolkata)

Abstract: Time and again, developing economies have raised questions against orthodoxy and totalitarianism. In the Post-Keynesian developmental phase there has been a remarkable extensiveness of heterodoxy which has been ubiquitous in nature. This article upholds some essential concepts which fall under the term “Heterodoxic Economics” and rigorously analyses the key differences between the orthodox and heterodox school of studies. Further we discuss, how the foundation of the heterodoxic school of economic thoughts differ from the Neo-classical school and figure out the transition of pluralism from the past to the present form of economic ideas.

Introduction: While we proceed through our article, we will consider “Orthodox Economics” as an umbrella term which contains both Mainstream and Neo-classical economics which is an approach that primarily focusses on determination of goods, output and income distributions in market through the mechanisms of supply and demand. We hypothesize such a situation by the phenomenon of utility maximization by income constraint rational individuals. The Neo-classical synthesis which was a merger of Neo-classical economics with Keynesian economics dominated the other school of thoughts from 1950s to the 1970s. Whereas, Heterodox Economics is any economic thought that contrasts with the orthodox school of thoughts. It doesn’t necessarily negate the orthodox economic ideas but aims to provide an extension which may be somewhat “Un-conventional”.

The advocates of Economic Heterodoxy have always been against the ideas such as rationality, individualism and the concept of equilibrium nexus. The notable themes of heterodoxy up to 1980 were, the rejection of individualism and consideration of socially embedded consumers, the emphasis on time as an irreversible process and reasoning in terms of influences between individualism and social structures.

Economic Heterodoxy and rejection of the basic Neo-classical foundations: 1. Heterodoxic criticism against individualism – One of the first and broadly accepted assumptions of Neo-classicalism is the “Rationality of individual economic agents”. It states that an individual or the Economic-Man (Homoeconomicus) is rational and seeks to maximize its utility which provides a background to the “rational choice theory” but economists like Satya Gabriel and Shiozawa have uphold the condition where an economic agent acts in a complex world where it is impossible for an individual to attain the maximal utility point. Even psychologically, pleasure maximization and rationality cannot always be achieved and is very vague from what the reality may be.

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2.

Heterodoxic criticism against market equilibrium – As per the Neo-classical school of thought there has to be a pareto optimal market cleaning equilibrium point where the economy must be stable. The Austrian school and the PostKeynesian school of economics refutes this particular concept or ideology as this is a much more wider scope and considers the factors like nexus of institutions, history and social structures.

Figure 1 gives us a notion about the essential Heterodox Economic Schools and their roots of origin.

On one hand Orthodox schools are based on pre-suppositions like instrumentalism, individualism, rationality optimization, scarcity and market optimism. Whereas the Heterodox school of economic thoughts are based on realism, holism, reasonable rationality, growth and regulated tamed markets which is comparatively much more realistic in nature.

Some of the eminent Heterodoxic school of economics are as follows: 1. Austrian School of Economic Thoughts – It was initially founded by Carl Menger in the year 1871.

The Austrian school rejects the classical and neo-classical views by stating that costs of production are determined by subjective factors based on alternative use of resources and even says that the equilibrium of demand and supply is also determined by subjective individual preferences.

2. Feminist School of Economic Thoughts – “If women Counted” by Waring 1998 is often regarded as the founding document of this particular discipline. Feminist Economics is a critical study which focuses on gender aware

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and inclusive inquiry and policy analysis. It negates the neo-classical concept of homoeconomicus and promotes heterodoxic ideas like gender budgeting, equality and financial capitalism for women.

3. Marxian Economics – Developed in the 19 century by the father of Marxism – Karl Marx. It is a heterodoxic political school of economic thoughts and it is best known to negate the neo-classical ideologies such as capital accumulation and capitalistic form of society. Instead it proposes a value generation system that considers the well-being of labourers and all the other classes who are the part of an economy. th

4. Post Keynesian Economics – The founding fathers of this school of thoughts are Piero Sraffa, Jan Kregel, Sidney Weintraub and other contemporaries of their times. The Post-Keynesian school focuses and analyses the institutional and social relationships, the behavioral pattern of groups and their function in the capitalistic setups while the Neo-Classical approach examines the isolated economic agents.

Conclusion: Over the past few decades, the agendas of Heterodoxic economists have taken a pluralistic turn.

The cross fertilization of ideas is creating a scope for the heterodoxic school of thoughts to solve contemporary and historical issues, policy making and general theoretical problems.

Finally, we must conclude by stating that, Science is a subject which may witness evolution, extensions in theories and constant development of conjectures. Whereas Socially enriching subjects like Philosophy and Psychology perceive constant changes in behavioral patterns of human beings.

Economics being a Social-science must possess the probability of witnessing development of theories and explanations as well as change in behavior of individuals which depend on an infinite set of factors.

This gives us enough evidence to state that heterodoxy and pluralism is the future of economic sciences which will undoubtedly provide various scopes for further research, development and progress for the subject.

References: 1. Garnett Jr, R. F., Olsen, E., & Starr, M. (Eds.). (2009). Economic pluralism (Vol. 122).

Routledge.

2. Pastor, M., & Wise, C. (1992). Peruvian economic policy in the 1980s: From orthodoxy to heterodoxy and back. Latin American Research Review, 27(2), 83-117.

3. Pike, A. (2004). Heterodoxy and the governance of economic development. Environment and Planning A, 36(12), 2141-2161.

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4. Elsner, W. (2017). Complexity economics as heterodoxy: Theory and policy. Journal of Economic Issues, 51(4), 939-978.

5. Aimar, T. (2009). The curious destiny of a heterodoxy: The Austrian economic tradition. The Review of Austrian Economics, 22(3), 199-207.

6. Sheppard, E. (2018). Heterodoxy as orthodoxy: Prolegomenon for a geographical political economy. In The new Oxford handbook of economic geography.

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Increasing protectionism and COVID, a perfect cocktail for Deglobalization?

By: Gaurav Naulakha (Ahmedabad University) Globalization is a process of increased interactions and connectedness between individuals, businesses and governments across the world. It is both the best thing that has happened and the most dangerous thing that's happened. And so, we have to manage those dangers, it's not just that our interconnected systems make us more interdependent. It's also that the benefits that we're enjoying, if we add them up can lead to some bad things.

Living in a modern globalized world means economies around the world are ever more dependent on each other. The interconnectedness of goods and services is facilitated by the speed at which people and companies are able to communicate. Each country now depends on several other countries for its economy to function. It has created a vast amount of wealth and massive investment over the last 25-30 years since the end of the cold war. But now, it is facing some pretty big challenges as the global economy comes under intense scrutiny.

With greater dependence comes greater fragility. No better example than the initial outbreak of the virus in China. An interconnected world means those carrying the virus were able to easily spread it worldwide when plants stopped producing there were shortages and delays for products all across the world. But as the virus slowly succeeds it doesn't necessarily follow that countries will seek to stop depending on each other.

Saying that covert 19 spells the death of globalization or deglobalization, I think is wrong. Firstly, it's not factual we're seeing many aspects of globalization which are accelerating not least digital globalization. In some areas there's 10 times the level of digital flows across national borders.

There's been a massive acceleration in digital flows. Science has never been more globalized in the search for the vaccine, in the mobilization of parts for ventilators or masks and other equipment.

There's also going to be much more globalization in finance because over 100 countries in the world have requested financial assistance from the IMF and from international institutions. Private banks will also have to be part of this. And there's going to be a desperate need. There will be a response to financial flows across national borders. There will also be more private flows because all assets, all valuations are being repriced because of COVID-19.

How is covid-19 harming globalization?

The pandemic didn't help because it actually breaks the supply chains and all should actually encourage people to be even more anti-globalization. But if you look at the numbers, we have seen slowdown in exports from all the countries and we also have seen less financial globalization in terms of cross-border investment and capital flows.

What are the main forces behind deglobalisation?

The key drivers of the globalization since 2008-2009 is partly related to the rise of populism which itself is related to the increasing inequality driven by the hyper-globalisation since the early 90s.

Another reason is probably related to increased protectionist policies that we have seen around the

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world in particular among in advanced economies. There's also an economic reason for why globalization is losing steam. There is decreasing return to how much companies including multinational firms can get from engaging in global supply chains. China is actually playing a large role during the globalization period. But there's a silver lining that we have to focus on which is after many years of globalization. China has successfully moved up their value chains where more products as well as parts and components are now being produced in China. It also implies a less international trade between China and the rest of the world. There's also less room for other countries to be engaged in global supply chains.

How are supply chains being affected by covid-19?

Many supply chains that were developed mostly because of increased efficiencies and the benefits to use workers that are paid at a much lower wage in developing countries. As I've mentioned, individuals governments and companies become a lot more receivers partly because they finally realize supply chains are a lot more fleshed out then what they have expected partly because they realize all of a sudden there have been two dependents on the supplies from individual countries in particular.

China global supply chains will become more fragmented and more regionalized because firms are going to focus more on just-in-case rather than just-in-time. They're going to think more about backup plans. They are not going to rely on one single supplier located in one single country.

Diversification is going to be the key. Firms will continue to make money but you know they will be less focused on maximizing profits and spend more time on building resilient global supply chains.

Is globalisation obsolete?

It is not obsolete because I think there's still a lot for individuals and companies and economies to benefit from globalization. One very important theme in economics is called economies of scale.

When people and companies can specialize in what they are good at there will be surplus for exchanges and everyone would benefit. That's that, there are winners and losers and I think there are people who were left behind during the globalization period and therefore I'm sympathetic to individuals and governments for the anti-globalization sentiments. But we should we shouldn't attribute the increase in inequality or to trade.

Policies are also part of the reasons and I think many events economies and also developing countries did not try to redistribute enough the gains from globalization to those who suffer during the process.

So, what will the future of globalisation look like?

We're going to see last globalization which will affect efficiency, which may also lower economic recovery hours from the pandemic. A silver lining of that is maybe countries and governments may have time to rethink about the strategies to globalization and there would be more thoughts, hopefully, towards providing safety nets and reducing inequality, that was driven to a very high level after years of globalization.

Coronavirus did serve as a stark reminder to the dangers of international dependence. The initial shortage of PPE and ventilators was widely discussed and could be an argument for greater self-

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reliance. But as the economy attempts to slowly return to normal, globalization can still play a different yet vital role.

The way that supply-chains became fragmented, was to take advantage of the international division of labour comparative advantage using cheap labour elsewhere to do things that were more expensive to do at home. Well with technological change, that's no longer driving force of why you locate things anyway. Shirts cars and other things increasingly are being made by robots and what we're seeing is reassuring because capital and machines are cheaper in the advanced economies than they are in poorer countries.

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GameStop Short Squeeze Explained By: Aakanksha Agarwal & Akash Arun Desai (KJ Somaiya Institute of Management) Introduction The stock market and the internet were burning over GameStop, a video game retailer whose stock price suddenly surged and was a favorite among traders who were putting the squeeze on Wall Street's big players.

An American chain of brick-and-mortar video games stores, GameStop, was worth around USD 2 billion in December 2020. By the last week of January 2021, it was worth almost USD 24 billion!

The GameStop stock rocketed close to 700% in just five trading days in the last week of January 2021 and plunged around 44% a day later. Then the shares rebounded to rally more than 50% on one day alone. Investors believe a few fund managers have found a mistake they made by collectively pressuring the funds to buy the stock, by creating a "short squeeze".

What is a short squeeze?

A short squeeze involves investors betting on the direction in which the stock price will go, up or down. The investors betting against a stock is called 'short'. Short sellers borrow shares of an asset they think will fall in price to purchase them after they fall. If they are correct, the shares are returned, and the difference between the price when they started the short and the actual selling price is pocketed. If their prediction is wrong, they are required to buy the share at a higher price and pay the difference between the price they set and its sale price.

Shorting a stock is risky as one can lose a significant amount if the price increases. At times one makes a bad bet. However, if someone tries to push the price up by buying many shares, one may lose the money. These situations may even occur when the company is not doing anything different. This is the squeeze.

When a person owns a particular stock, the maximum they can lose is capital invested. The worstcase scenario would be the value of stock falling to zero. Nevertheless, in short selling, the risk is theoretically infinite as there is no cap on how high the price of a stock can rise.

Often, when a lot of a company's stock is sold, it creates a self-fulfilling prophecy by making the stock less enticing to potential buyers, thus lowering the price. Short sellers, however, do not breach any law by betting in this way against a company.

In the case of GameStop, several hedge funds like Melvin Capital, Steve Cohen's Point72, Dan Sundheim's D1 Capital, Citron, etc., were associated with withholding millions of shorted shares of GameStop for a few months.

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What happened to GameStop?

The GameStop bubble is a combination of traditional investing, stock-market mechanics, rampant enthusiasm, and the strong belief that anyone with a Robinhood account can make a fortune into existence.

Reddit online forum had a subgroup called the r/WallStreetBets, where investors gathered to discuss the stock market and share their ideas. In January 2021, the subgroup called subreddit, developed the foundations for a short squeeze on GameStop by dramatically driving up the stock price. Approximately 140% of GameStop's public float had been sold short, which means some shorted shares had been re-lent and shorted again. This occurred after a comment from Citron Research that predicted a decrease in the stock's value.

On 25 January 2021, more than 175 million GameStop shares were traded, the second-highest total in a single day, according to Dow Jones market data, surpassing its 30-day average volume of 29.8 million shares. By 27 January 2021, the stock price had risen by 1,500% throughout two weeks, and its high volatility caused trading to halt several times.

Some momentum was provided by Elon Musk and Chamath Palihapitiya's tweets, which pushed the share price to over $200. By the end of January 2021, the GameStop's share price was skyrocketed to USD 483, i.e., 190 times the low of USD 2.57 which it reached in April 2020.

A restriction limiting trading was reported on several brokerages like Charles Schwab Corporation, TD Ameritrade, and Robinhood subsidiary. Robinhood and other brokerages imposed certain restrictions on the purchases of GameStop, AMC Theatres, BlackBerry Limited, Nokia Corporation, and other volatile stocks on their trading platforms.

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In February 2021, GameStop shares declined substantially, losing more than 60% of their value and closing below USD 100 for the first time in a week. Reports estimated that almost USD 27 billion in value had been erased. Shares of companies like AMC and Blackberry declined in value because they were also affected by the short squeeze and put under company trading restrictions.

Long-Term Implications of Short-Squeeze Presently, GameStop is up by another 69% and is trading at over $300. Investors who bought it exactly one year ago are now up by +8,000%. However, the value of the company has not changed by this much. Eventually, the situation will collapse back, but as long as there is more demand than the shares' supply, the prices are expected to keep rising. Short sellers have already lost a fortune, and with unprecedented speculation and worldwide media coverage of the short squeeze, things could quickly get much worse over the coming days and weeks.

Most people believe that GameStop short squeeze will soon be buried, and things will return to normal, but it is important to realize that this will be long-term implications that investors can potentially profit from in reality.

Most importantly, the risk-to-reward of short selling has permanently deteriorated, suggesting that the inverse is also true. The risk-to-reward of buying heavily shorted stocks has continually improved because the recent short squeeze has taught investors two critical lessons that will impact the market far into the future – •

•

Lesson #1 – The event has taught individual investors that they have the power to "crowdfund a short-squeeze" by building collective interest in a specific stock through social media.

Lesson #2 – Further, it has taught hedge funds the risk of running against these new groups of individual investors who leverage social media to go after them. However, the investors did not run this risk, 5 – 10 years ago and thus, shorting stocks in the present day is riskier than ever.

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As a result, GME is being perceived as a disaster by short sellers across the board who are asking themselves how wise it is to short stocks that are already heavily shorted.

GME is not the first short squeeze but it is the first one of its kind and not the last one either. It has shown short sellers that they could lose everything in a short squeeze. It doesn’t matter whether they’re right or wrong because short sellers may not stay solvent long enough to see their thesis play out. Simultaneously, a growing revolt has been observed against short sellers who are perceived to be evil stock market manipulators. On Twitter, the celebrities are showing support to GME investors while the worldwide media is talking about the story of "short sellers vs individual investors". The backlash has triggered research firms to discontinue the coverage of short opportunities. For instance, Citron Research has ensured that they wouldn’t publish short reports in future. Politicians are protesting for better regulations of short selling.

Since, the short selling isn’t yet over, it mean that the risk-to-reward of short selling is deteriorating by having to face an angry mob of individual investors who will cause bankruptcy, risky worldwide media backlash, and greater regulation & scrutiny from politicians.

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Peeking from the Shadows: A Closer Look at the Growth of the Underground Economy By: Nameetta Nierakkal & Benita Benny (St. Xavier's College (Autonomous), Mumbai)

In the wake of the pandemic, we have seen the global economy adjust to nuanced circumstances through the course of lockdowns and curfews. One phenomenon that witnessed vigorous growth was that of the Shadow Economy. Also known as the parallel or underground economy, the IMF defines it as a sector that includes illegal activities and unreported income from the production of legal goods and services, either from monetary or barter transactions. Collectively, it comprises all the activities in an economy that are generally taxable but remain unreported and out of the reach of the authorities.

Shadow entrepreneurships range from taxicab services that are not licensed, roadside food stalls and plumbers/electricians paid for one-time services to the sale of street drugs and smuggled goods, human trafficking and illegal prostitution. They have existed for a long time and are an essential part of the economy that acts as the main source of income for a significant portion of the population. In recent times, the online betting industry, online pharmacies, online finance sector (such as instant loan apps) and the online course provider sites have been thriving in the gig economy accelerated by the pandemic. This effect was observed as a result of the limited access to access of goods and services due to the government-enforced restrictions. The economy witnessed a rise in new technology-mediated markets that gradually replaced its traditional equivalents.

An accurate evaluation of the size of shadow economies cannot be given due to the nature of such businesses. They are not registered and therefore official data cannot be released by governments.

A study by the IMF suggests that it comprises approximately 44 percent of the GDP on average in developing nations, and 30 percent and 16 percent of the GDP on average for transition and OECD nations respectively, as of 2000 (International Monetary Fund, 2000). Developing countries have a bigger underground economy, as the citizens of these nations are often forced to turn to this sector which is able to provide them a decent standard of living. The income inequality prevalent in these countries are also directly related to the size of its shadow businesses. Additionally, empirical studies have also related the size of informal economies with corruption. They tend to be substitutes in high income countries, and complements in low income countries.

In 2014, researchers at Imperial College Business School in London estimated that India has the world’s second-largest hidden economy out of 68 countries that were studied. For every registered business there existed 127 shadow economy businesses in India (Autio and Fu, 2014). According to government estimates, India’s informal sector contributes to almost half of its GDP and employs 90 percent of the total workforce in the country. This is concerning as such a large proportion of the workforce is employed with no safeguards, leaving them gravely exposed to an economic crisis. The onset of the pandemic unveiled such underlying predicaments.

The large hidden economies of countries can be attributed to numerous factors. Mainly, it has been the result of the rise of burden of taxes and social security contributions combined with the increase

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in the density and intensity of regulations in the official economy, the forced reduction of weekly working time and early retirement, increased unemployment rates, and a declining tax morale (Schneider and Enste, 2000).

With the outbreak of Covid -19, the shadow economy was greatly affected. Restrictions on the movement of people and instantaneous halt and downsizing of economic activities to contain the virus had a negative effect on their livelihood. While many found new opportunities, the other half was struggling to make ends meet. Given the fact that most in the informal businesses have no savings or other financial cushions, they are forced to close their business and use the money for consumption due to the sudden loss of revenue. The unequal impact of the pandemic on various sectors may also trigger far-reaching restructuring of economic activities. This could cause a reallocation of informal labour towards less affected sectors with consumption demand that will recover faster. This restructuring of activities could lead to frictional unemployment or further expansion of the shadow economy (International Labour Organization, 2020). Even once the restrictions are lifted, there will still be uncertainty with a second wave, especially with the news of mutations in Britain. Such uncertainty will encourage precautionary savings within consumers leading to low investment. The combined effect of such uncertainties may have a damaging effect on the economic fabrics resulting in low demand, production and employment rates pushing more people in the informal economy (International Labour Organization, 2020).

The effects of shadow entrepreneurship on the economy are numerous. According to some reports, the shadow economy has a positive effect on the GDP and its growth rate. The shadow economy is seen to be more competitive and efficient than the formal economy resulting in increased overall growth rate. The contrary view is that the large size of the shadow economy will decrease the tax revenues leading to lesser public spending, especially on infrastructure and services, facilitating production expansion resulting in a lower GDP growth rate and overall welfare of the people (International Monetary Fund, 2002).

Shadow economies are also credited to create more employment and products by eliminating tax and other wedges that institutions create between labour supply and labour demand or product supply and product thereby extending the cost-effectiveness margin for both individuals and businesses. On one hand, the shadow economy leads to allocative distortions because the resources and other factors of production are not used effectively and efficiently (Arandarenko, 2015). On the other hand, most of the income generated with shadow entrepreneurship is used in the formal economy, which in turn has a stimulating effect and may lead to additional economic growth.

Shadow economies are said to be beneficial in the short run and detrimental in the long run due to the factors discussed above. It is also important to keep in mind it is difficult to predict the actual effect of the shadow economy because of the unavailability of reliable and complete data. This shortcoming is hindering the Government from making effective policies that can tackle the issue at large scale.

The dire consequences of a large shadow economy can have in the long-term emphasises the need for proper regulation. However, with the government prioritising the management of the virus and, of late, the vaccine distributions, how much attention will be given in this respect is unclear. The situation has the potential to spiral out of control, given the monitoring needs of public goods

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distribution, especially in India. There is a dire need to harmonise the activities within the government bodies such as the Ministry of Corporate Affairs and the finance, health and education departments to control shadow economy businesses.

References •

• • • • •

•

Autio, Erkko, and Kun fu. 2014. “Economic and Political Institutions and Entry into Formal and Informal Entrepreneurship 12 April 2014.” Asia Pacific Journal of Management accepted for publication (March). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10490-014-93810.

Enste, Dominik, and Friedrich Schneider. 2000. “Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences.” Journal of Economic Literature 38 (February): 77–114. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.38.1.77.

Goel, Rajeev K, James W Saunoris, and Friedrich Schneider. 2017. “Growth in the Shadows: Effect of the Shadow Economy on U.S. Economic Growth over More Than a Century.” Institute of Labour Economics, April, 22.

International Labour Organization. 2020. “Covid-19 Crisis and the Informal Economy.”

International Monetary Fund. 2002. “Economic Issues No. 30 -- Hiding in the Shadows : The Growth of the Underground Economy.”

March 2002. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/issues/issues30/.

Maxine Myers. 2014. “Large Numbers of Shadow Economy Entrepreneurs in Developing Countries | Imperial News | Imperial College London.” Imperial News. 2014. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/149807/large-numbers-shadow-economyentrepreneurs-developing/.

Mihail Arandarenko. 2015. “The Shadow Economy: Challenges to Economic and Social Policy | SpringerLink.” In . Springer Link. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/9783-319-13437-6_2.

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Gig-Economy: A Sustainable solution?

By- Ishu (IIM, Indore) “There can be no liberty unless there is economic liberty.”

-Margaret Thatcher Gig Economy is the superset of all platforms prioritizing work on short-term contracts and freelance jobs as opposed to regular jobs. In layman terms, “gig economy” refers to the existence of a temporary or performance-based workforce instead of conventional stable pay workers1. The major part of India’s gig economy is covered by Swiggy, Zomato, Uber, Ola, and other on-demand commercial ventures such as Oyster Connect and Internshala.

The overwhelming demand for on-call workers is majorly covered by an excess supply of migrant agricultural laborers. More than sixty percent of farmers prefer to be employed in an urban facility because of incentives and provisions such as better healthcare, education, life insurance, and employment opportunities. This trend is due to repeated crop failures and inefficient efforts by the government. This checks against the official government data that since Independence, this is the first time India is experiencing a labour surplus shift from agricultural to non-agricultural sector.

Officially, the Indian Government chooses to define the term gig worker as “a person who performs work or participates in a work arrangement and earns from such activities outside of a traditional employer-employee relationship”. In the Indian context, workers specializing in content development are hired for short term projects. The constitutional code also categorizes this ‘platform work’ as “An employment form in which organizations or individuals use an online platform to access other platforms to access other organizations or individuals to solve specific problems.”

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The rise of gig workers can be explained by three trends - temporally flexible working arrangements, casual tasks, and project-based labour contracts. These contracts bind the worker to get incentivized on the basis of the outputs they deliver irrespective of the process. Instead of fulltime commitment to single clients, these freelancing platforms manage resources to serve multiple clients simultaneously and remotely from their homes and working spaces. In the context of the gig economy, such models come with compelling innovations. They bring more jobs and services in developing countries. As the influence of the gig economy increases, important policy and business implications arise for the future. It is widely recognized by economists that traditional tools and methodologies are not adequate to measure the gig economy, both in terms of capturing its full extent as well as measuring its impact on other activities because these jobs are largely based on the delivery of output on large scale which reduces the accuracy of measurements.

Since the gig economy is relatively new and more flexible than similar chains existing in the current market, it is not able to provide quality incentives to every on-call worker. Even mainstream incentives that come with full-time employment seem to be far-fetched with performance-based gig workers. Furthermore, they may not be aware of all the risks they are exposed to when they sign the contract to work on temporary or performance-based occupations.

To understand the Government’s stand on these concerns, we have to comprehend what traditional stakeholders (Investors/shareholders, commission agents) think. Insurance companies have to face challenges such as policy pricing, which are determined after analysing years of data and historical facts which might not be possible in a relatively newer field such as working on gigs because of complex business structures. On the other hand, smartphone-based applications require frictionless transactions, and company managers look for short-term coverage; they do not want to buy annual subscription plans to avoid covering the time when they are not working.

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The Government is currently working with insurtech entrants on easy, digital, and on-demand services to tap into this uncovered sector of the market to protect employee rights. Insurtech companies ensure that maximum efficiency is drawn out from the insurance providers . Policies have to be developed incorporating artificial intelligence algorithms that can bypass the traditional processes and legal systems while providing fast and short-termed monthly subscription models .

However, it’s time that large insurers quickly adapt to seize this new opportunity in the market because the current insurance gap is wide, considering the huge workforce involved in the process.

4

6

The gig workforce has the greatest influence on developing countries, with India and China having the most workers. However, to interpret gig-work only as a primary source of income can underestimate its global significance at the time when gig-economy comprises 30% of secondary income in developing countries .

3

Leading issues linked with the gig economy are the lack of job security amplified by complex contracts, incentive rates, and lack of control over daily targets, which require more than 12 hours of daily work . Reports from BetterPlace peg attrition between 40% to 300% among companies majorly dependent upon gig-workers, with half the workforce below 23 leaving within three months . The best option to retain on-call workers is by providing incentives such as health, insurance, and some sort of stability. Most of the workforce in gig-economies belong to the suburban or rural areas where long term stability is a significant concern.

7

2

Although the code envisages several security incentives for the gig workers, it fails to classify gig workers as regular employees. Unlike the recent Canadian Employment Standards Act, which equates the gig workers as regular workers, the Indian Government does not seek to put both the communities in the same categories and merely ensures that employers provide them with social security benefits as determined by the Government . Furthermore, as the code has been set out under unorganized workers, they are therefore denied purview of the predetermined benefits (Bonus, insurance, job security, etc.) which are mainstream to a regular worker.

8

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Gig workers tend to focus on quality of work over quantity of hours spent working on it. Thus, one can even argue that a gig worker has better work-life balance because he doesn’t have to work around the clock on menial tasks. They can now manage their life in a better manner and their income levels would be directly proportional to the amount of work they put in. In a nutshell, we need to understand the gig workers are a critical driving force for the economy and undermining them will arguably lead to economic downfall.

References •

Pathak M. and Jha S., 2019, India and the gig economy, Induslaw, (http://www.mondaq.com/india/x/832012/employee+rights+labour+relations/India+And+ The+Gig+Economyhttps://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/indias-deepening-farm-crisis76-farmers-want-to-give-up-farming-shows-study-43728)

•

Mohit M. Rao, 2019, The ‘gig’ economy is creating lakhs of jobs, but workers don’t see a future, The Hindu (https://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/the-gig-economy-iscreating-lakhs-of-jobs-but-workers-dont-see-a-future/article29299673.ece)

•

Judith, Alice et al., 2019, THE NEW FREELANCERS: TAPPING TALENT IN THE GIG ECONOMY, BCG (https://www.bcg.com/en-in/publications/2019/new-freelancerstapping-talent-gig-economy.aspx)

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Are Rideshares really safe?, 2019, (https://zendrive.com/references/taxi-rideshare-122014/)

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MartinCampion, Shocking taxi accident stats & facts (https://issuu.com/martincampion/docs/shocking_taxi_accident_stats___fact)

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Scattaglia Cartago S., Insuring the Gig economy, KPMG, (https://home.kpmg/xx/en/home/insights/2019/05/insuring-the-gig-economy.html)

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Regulating India’s gig economy (https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=026c8a29-e4c1-4a2d-b63d3d63453348e1)

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Jha S. and Alawadhi N., 2019, gig workers set to come under labour laws (https://www.rediff.com/business/report/gig-workers-set-to-come-under-labourlaws/20190926.htm)

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Paliath S., Why Children of Farmers in India are less likely to take up farming (https://www.business-standard.com/article/jobs/why-children-of-farmers-in-india-areless-likely-to-take-up-farming-119071800148_1.html

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Making Financial Market More Inclusive By- Sudhanshu Upadhyay (K J Somaiya Institute of Management) Introduction Financial market is a place where people buy and sell stocks, commodities, bonds, and other financial products. In this system, flow of funds take place from those who have surplus of it to those who have shortage thus providing basis for the continuous restructuring of the economy that is needed to support growth.

Risk involved Financial market operates in a cycle of boom and bust, with busts commonly occurring due to over-speculation. Due to the speculative culture of the entire structure, investors are exposed to greater risks and restricted real capital formation. Any amount of understanding and long-term analysis can be demolished at a single stroke.

For example: The panic of 1873, largely caused due to the speculation of railroad bonds.

Broad investing trends An average Indian household holds about 84% of its wealth in real estate and other tangible assets, 11% in gold and remaining 5% in financial assets but Indians are now shifting from traditional assets like real estate, gold, etc. and moving towards financial assets such as stocks and mutual funds.

In FY19 the proportion of investments in financial assets increased to 61% as against 57.25% 5years ago. The highest allocation of money from individual investors was in equity investments.

A significant surge was noted in the investments in mutual funds, pension funds and alternative investment funds (AIFs) with 17%, 21% and 20.19% y-o-y growth respectively.

However, the overall penetration remains low. Only 2.78 crore Indians invest in the stock market i.e. around 2% of the population, as compared to 50% in America and 7% in China. This indicates that there’s plenty of headroom for India’s financial market penetration to grow.

A worrying picture It’s imperative for India to have a developed financial market to become a developed economy but the financial habits of the population show we are nowhere close to this.

Equity segment accounts for more than 75% of market activity in India and market for other financial instruments like bonds and interest-rate futures is not adequately developed. This trend is reverse in advanced economies with bonds accounting for more than 80% of trading in some markets.

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Domestic debt market in India is about 67% of GDP, while the size of India’s corporate bond market is mere 16% of GDP, compared with 73% in South Korea and 46% in Malaysia. Indian corporate bond market has unstable and low trading volumes with largest investors being toprated financial and public sector issuances.

Source: Economic Times

Why don’t more households invest in the financial market?

There are a lot of educated investors, in mid to high income category, who save yet do not invest.

Infographic given below shows the reasons behind non-participation:

Hence, due to the typical impulse of risk aversion followed by dearth of information and lack of trust, most Indians stay away from the financial market.

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Bridging the Gap Between India and Bharat Metropolitan cities have traditionally been the topmost contributors to the financial market.

However, increasing number of retail investors from tier-2, tier-3 cities have been contributing to India’s growth story.

Top five states in new registrations are: UP, Bihar, Punjab, Kerala and Madhya Pradesh. Cities like Vadodara, Nagpur, Rajkot, Patna and Lucknow are catching up fast. There exists vibrant investor base in Rewari, Jhansi, Kottayam, Guntur, Valsad, Pathankot, etc. This reflects the booming interest in market among all socio-economic strata.

Coronavirus- The unexpected trip During pandemic, stock market investing appeared to be on the upswing. Investments from domestic investors surged during the pandemic.

People who were unable to follow markets during office timings, hooked to investing. This change can be attributed to increased education & awareness and availability of investment tools at everyone’s fingertips.

Investors looking for diverse set of assets Earlier, potential investors were unaware of the risk adjusted returns of equities and mutual funds and considered individual savings and investment instruments independently instead of calculating their optimal weights in a diversified portfolio.

With growth spreading its wings over more cities, Indians’ willingness to diversify their investments into newer asset classes is gaining pace. Increasing demand for accessibility to multiple investment avenues like trading member networks, exchange traded funds (ETFs), and mutual funds demonstrates that.

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Untapped investor base at the bottom of the pyramid With India's growth story unfolding, it’s imperative to have strong financial market with broad participation in order to fuel the capital needs of the economy and ensuring that the benefits of growth percolate to bottom of the socio-economic pyramid.

Despite rising education and income, improved access to roads and electricity, and significant growth in financial inclusion, the rural rate of investments in the securities markets have been dismally low. Unlike in urban areas, riskier investments like derivatives are completely absent from their portfolios and equities lag behind safer debt investments. Hence, the risk aversion amongst the rural investors is undeniably palpable.

Awareness of Savings, Investment and Capital formation instruments

Source: SEBI Investment Survey

This gloomy picture of investing amongst rural households is a direct consequence of the lack of awareness about different investment instruments.

Way forward Many instruments have been introduced in the market like PPF, Mutual funds, NPS, Fixed deposits, etc. to help middle class families participate in financial market. However, their participation remains low as Indians mostly prefer investing in tangible assets.

Various policy initiatives are undertaken in the last few years like SEBI’s bond market policies, RBI’s large borrower framework for enhancing credit supply and would take time to fructify. To further increase participation in financial market, following suggestions can be looked at:

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• • •

•

For Mutual funds: Tech-driven low-cost platforms like Paytm Money should be scaled up to increase the reach in rural areas to democratize this industry.

For Gold: Reallocating some portion of gold holdings towards financial assets, households can achieve higher rates of return. Awareness campaign should be started to highlight the benefit of sovereign gold bonds.

For Micro-pensions scheme: Broad innovative campaign highlighting the importance of pension holdings is necessary to break deep-rooted cultural preferences of relying on the next generation to support the elderly. A robust pension by using digital and innovative solutions should be implemented to cater to the entire population.

For Debt market: Guidelines issued by RBI such as allowing banks to issue rupee denominated bonds overseas, corporate bonds as eligible collateral for liquidity operations, removing restrictions on seamless transfer of G-securities between RBI and depositories to promote retail participation are welcoming.

Additional recommendations: • • •

Government should look into incentivising the supply side to innovate financial products and preventing households from predatory pricing schemes for broader participation in financial markets.

Awareness programmes on fixed-income products such as government securities, corporate bonds, debt funds and hybrids will be salutary.

Tax incentives nudge Indian investors in the direction of financial decisions. Tax incentives should be offered to investors in various financial instruments.

Conclusion Financial markets are important for the economic world we live in today. India, with largest working age population, is becoming an engine for future growth. In today’s scenario, very low percentage of savings are invested in the domestic market, but with GDP growing at 6-7% annually, stable government and financial market, we will witness more money being pumped into the system as more investors will join India’s bandwagon. With broader participation of people in the market, we will see an equitable distribution of income.

References: • • • •

https://www.etmoney.com/blog/india-investment-report-2020-a-look-at-how-indiainvests/ https://www.aegonlife.com/insurance-investment-knowledge/where-do-indians-investtheir-money-heres-a-break-up/ https://www.nseindia.com/ https://www.sebi.gov.in/sebi_data/attachdocs/1491452612271.pdf

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• •

• •

https://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/PublicationReport/Pdfs/HFCRA28D0415E2144A009112 DD314ECF5C07.PDF https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/the-rise-of-small-towninvestors-in-indian-equity markets/articleshow/71270423.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text& utm_campaign=cppst https://www.businesstoday.in/moneytoday/cover-story/mcx-ceo-joseph-massey-talksabout-what-will-boost-the-stock-markets/story/14169.html https://cafemutual.com/news/industry/12632-less-than-15-of-indias-population-investsin-mfs

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