Arbitrage Magazine - NOVEMBER 2018 - Finance & Investment Club | IIM Rohtak

ARBITRAGE NOV 2018

VOL. 2 ISSUE 12

ARTICLE OF THE MONTH:

IL&FS CRISIS Impact on the Indian Economy

FINANCE AND INVESTMENT CLUB

Editor's Note We are pleased to publish the twenty-second issue of ‘Arbitrage’ – Finance and Investment Club’s monthly magazine. Arbitrage aims to cover a diverse range of topics under the wide domain of Finance and Economics.

Our goal is to ensure that we provide significant value to the readers through informative articles and articles on current affairs. We would like to thank all the authors for contributing their articles for Arbitrage.

In the Article of the Month – "IL&FS crisis- Impact on the Indian Economy”, the author Ms. Tripti Lal from Shri Ram College of Commerce (SRCC) has tried to throw a light on the crisis's innate details and the consequent impact on the Indian economy.

We hope for the continuous support of our authors and readers to make this magazine a success.

-Finance and Investment Club, IIM Rohtak Parag Nawani Siddhesh S Salkar Vineeth Harikumar Naveen Kumar Sankalp Jain Pavankumar S Bibekjyoti Roy Nandi Aditi Patil

Index S.No.

Article

Pg. No.

1

Impact of the IL&FS crisis on the Indian economy

1

2

FINTECH in India: Empowering the nation's future

3

3

Crude oil prices

6

4

Is there a rise in demand for protectionism?

8

5

BASEL v/s Indian banks: Tiff or Truce?

10

6

From nothing comes the system?

12

7

Chinese economic slowdown: Reality

15

8

The business of gaming

17

9

Options have a future

19

10

RBI's capital framework and stand-off with centre

21

11

Do you have what it takes for credit analysis?

23

12

2018 in rear mirror: The stealthy and accelerated rise of Fintechs in India's credit system

25

IMPACT OF THE IL&FS CRISIS ON THE INDIAN ECONOMY Tripti Lal SRCC

ARTICLE OF THE MONTH

BACKGROUND The recent string of payment defaults by Infrastructure Leasing and Financial Services (IL&FS) has taken the entire financial sector by storm. Since September, when IL&FS failed to repay Rs 1000 crore loan from Small Industries Development Bank of India ( SIDBI), almost Rs 100 billion worth wealth got eroded from the market. It is being termed as the ‘India's Lehman Brother' crisis as IL&FS was one of the “too big to fail” organizations.

Until early August, it had an AAA rating from credit rating agencies as it undertook major government infrastructure plans but now ICRA has reduced its rating to junk status as it is reeling under a Rs 90,000 crore debt with even its subsidiaries filing for resolution at National Company Law Tribunal ( NCLT).

IMPACT ON FINANCIAL MARKET • NBFC MARKET In the past five years, the NBFC market has been booming and not only the number of NBFCs grew but it had also captured higher market share. Currently, 11,400 NBFCs are operating with a combined balancesheet of Rs 2.21 lakh crore.

The stock market responded optimistically during 2013-14 by significantly increasing the valuations of these NBFSCs. The credit growth widened between the NBFCs and traditional bank as the latter was struggling with poor profitability and mounting NPAs. The CAGR of NBFC credit for the same period was astounding 17.3% while for banks it was only 10.4%.

But now the NBFCs are facing the heat as the repayment defaults of IL&FS have surfaced leading to a sharp decline in its business and profitability. Not just that, most of the NBFCs would have to sell assets

to make payments for the borrowings through the debt market. Also, licenses for 1500 NBFCs have been canceled by RBI due to the inadequate capital of the NBFCs as these were less stringently regulated as compared to banks. Moreover, mutual funds have also become wary of investing in NBFCs and pumping more money to these organizations.

Mutual funds and investors are now not willing to venture in these troubled waters especially of housing NBFCs that have been devalued by the market immensely.

As it can be seen from the above graph, almost 45% of NBFCs' funds came from mutual funds.

This depicts a high reliance of NBFCs on Mutual funds for its capital. But the tide now seems more favorable to traditional banking instruments.

The non-food credit growth has been immense for banks as corporates are also moving back to banks rather than bond markets due to falling in risk appetite of corporates post this crisis. As the interest rates in bond markets are increasing to due to higher risk exposure, the bank loans are becoming cheaper. While an AA-rated borrower can raise funds from the bond market at 9.5-10% now, up from 8.5% a year ago, for a bank loan the fixed charge would be 8.5%.

• SHARE MARKET The ripple effects of default string of IL&FS were

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the markets. While RBI did one round of Open Market Operations in September to infuse liquidity, there was an overwhelming purchase of foreign exchange and other securities that had offset the RBI’s purchase of government bonds from banks. This liquidity deficit is hurting NBFCs as most of their funds are blocked in G-secs and other projects. The IL&FS crisis has badly hurt the NBFC valuations too. Moreover, banks and mutual funds have become wary of lending to them. felt even in share markets. Benchmark indices closed deep in the red last week. Sensex went down by 3.28% and Nifty by 3.32%. The share market devalued the IL&FS stocks steeply. As a resolution process, the Uday Kotak- led committee has recommended the sale of IL&FS subsidiaries at the current market valuations which is now stands at almost half of the valuation. While in 2015 the shares of IL&FS were pegged at Rs 750/piece, the valuation today has declined to Rs 350 a piece. Also, this valuation is as per SBI, which is a major stakeholder at 6.42% of IL&FS. But the markets didn’t value the shares even at Rs350 a piece and the demandsupply forces made the price hover at 150 a piece.

This a 93.33% decline in the valuation since 2015.

LIC, the largest shareholder of IL&FS is also expected to sell shares at this price only.

Not only had this, but the shares of DHFL also hit a rock bottom when DSP mutual fund had sold the DHFL CPs at a steep discount rate leading to falling in DHFL valuations by 60%. While DSP cleared the air that it was restructuring its portfolio and not selling DHFL CPs due to fears of payment defaults, the markets by then had already devalued the shares of most NBFCs and housing finance companies. Bajaj Holdings & Investment Ltd., Religare Enterprises Ltd, Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Ltd., and Edelweiss Financial Services Ltd. slumped more than 7 percent in Mumbai and it is expected that it might slump further.

• LIQUIDITY CRUNCH The Indian economy is facing a liquidity crunch with a net deficit of 734 billion dollars. The yields on government bonds are rising and thus the cost of borrowing in bond markets is rising which has sent the NBFCs into a frenzy. Not only this, most of the Commercial papers and debentures of NBFCs are due for redemption in December 2018-January 2019which is adding to fears due to less liquidity in

CONCLUSION The IL&FS crisis has made the situation worse for the NBFCs as they are currently facing liquidity crunch. Also, mutual funds are most likely to pull-out leaving lower profitability and market valuations. Moreover, the shadow banking sector, which was less stringently regulated until now, would be under RBI’s constant scanner.

Small NBFCs have already been shut down. The market is yet to be stabilised and only with proper resolution of IL&FS fiasco, the NBFC sector would be able to stand on its feet again.

2

FINTECH IN INDIA: EMPOWERING THE NATION'S FUTURE Kritin Kapoor Joydeep Chatterjee IIFT Kolkata

Pasha, 34 years old, has been selling bananas on

In India, fintech is growing rapidly and is spread

depot in Hyderabad but is suddenly the talk of the

revenue and business expansion stages. In the ever

his pushcart for 18 years at the Dilsukhnagar bus

town in and around the fruit market. The reason?

He has started accepting payments through Paytm even if you buy a dozen bananas from him! A look at his Paytm transactions reveal he has made

transactions of as low as INR 2 into his account.

Shortly after demonetization heavily affected

businesses of small vendors across India, a heavy shift from cash transactions to digital wallets was observed. With cashless transactions rising to

more than 20 times pre-November 2016 figures, the fintech revolution in India is touching more lives each passing day.

Fintech, common on the lips of millennials and Gen-X today, is a broad term used to describe

companies that apply cloud technology, open source software and other tools to improve

banking and investing processes. Every decade contributes significantly to the development.

The 1950s saw the emergence of credit cards to ease the burden of carrying cash. The 1960s brought about ATMs to replace tellers and

branches. In the 1970s, electronic stock trading

began on exchange trading floors. The 1980s saw the rise of bank mainframe computers and

complex data recording systems. In the 1990s, the

internet and e-commerce business models started mushrooming and ever since the leading edge of

technology in fintech has been changing every few

evenly (21%-27%) across ideation, prototype, early

flourishing field of startups in India, 7% of all fintech startups have already turned profitable indicating

the huge growth in technology and investment we have seen in the country over the past years.

PayTM could well serve as a leading example of the fintech revolution in India to describe the

exponential growth this sector has seen so rapidly.

PayTM began as a prepaid mobile recharge website in 2010, when the market was in the introductory

stage. Without any significant incumbents present, PayTM began to leverage publicity campaigns

based on their cashback & discount policies. PayTM also kept an eye out for services like DTH recharges and electricity bill payments which it eventually integrated into its mobile app that started as a "recharge only" venture.

PayTM entered the growth phase buoyed by its

launch of the PayTM Wallet, an online digital wallet that allowed users to store and pay for online and

later on offline services. This was at the same time

the digital transactions had hit 9 billion in numbers

and â‚š 1,329 trillion in value. Further, PayTM pushed for product differentiation by foraying into other uses of mobile wallets like utility payments &

movies. They were aided by the growth in the

shipment of smartphones from 8 million in 2010 to 102 million by 2015.

years.

In the early part of the 21st century, retail financial services are being further digitized via mobile

wallets, payment apps, robo-advisors for wealth and retirement planning, equity crowdfunding platforms for access to private and alternative investment opportunities and online lending

platforms. Â These fintech services are not simple

enhancements to banking services, but complete replacements for banking services instead.

3

More recently, PayTM got the license from RBI to

& RTGS and the mobile wallets, who have a limit of ₹

management products that helped push their

capture a considerable market share, with over 246

offer payments bank services, along with wealth

cumulative app downloads to over 100 million by the end of 2017. At the same time, PayTM has been

successful towards cashing in, on the growth of

10,000 pre KYC. The UPI service has been able to

million transactions amounting to ₹ 40,834 crores as at June 2018.

smartphones sales in India which is set to grow from 200 million in 2015 to 340 million by the end of 2018.

The government and other regulatory bodies are the major market makers for the fintech industry.

Coming just out of the nascent stage of growth,

fintech has remained largely lesser regulated than most other industries. Post demonetization, a

renewed push for regulation and regularization of the fintech sector was taken, with emphasis on converting India to a cashless economy.

Some of the major initiatives along these lines are: The Start-Up India initiative has allocated funds

worth $1.5B for funding start-ups. Such ventures have historically been the ones to create major

innovations like mobile wallets, KYC compliances in the BFSI sector like in the case of Primechain Technologies.

One of largest pushes for financial inclusion was in the case of the Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojna (or

While the apex regulator, the Reserve Bank of India (or RBI), has banned the use and linking of bitcoin and related cryptocurrencies, it seems to be

favouring the Blockchain technology as a process

enabler. The Institute for Development & Research in Banking Technology, which was established by the

RBI, published a white paper that suggested banks to set up private Blockchain networks for internal uses.

Also, a consortium of banks led by SBI, who have formed the BankChain Alliance, have helped to

PMJDY) which achieved a total deposit target of over address several issues and aided in recording of ₹ 80,000 crores in over 31.45 crore accounts. India’s liens, mortgages, etc on a central blockchain ledger. rating on the Crisil Inclusix Index also rose from 56 in 2016 to 58 in 2018. Aadhar based biometric security

has been pushed by the RBI, with a view to improve

security as the nation shifts to cashless transactions.

Under this system, an Aadhaar number in entered

into the system, which links to the Aadhaar database and pulls information for matching the biometrics of the user. As an additional layer, an OTP is also

entered by the user to complete the authentication

process. This system can be used for authenticating

As India whips through this era of revolution in the fintech landscape that bridges the gaps and brings together technological advancements, unified

payment platforms and changing mind-sets of citizens of India, we are all stakeholders of this change in the Indian economy. According to a YourStory Research study, in 2016, the Indian

FinTech start-up ecosystem witnessed more than

$687 million being poured into the space across 88

transactions and opening new accounts under the E- deals that indicates the sheer potential in a KYC system. developing country like ours. Today, any citizen with The government backed organization, National

Payments Corporation of India (or the NPCI), has led the push into the small payments segment, with the Unified Payments Interface (or UPI). With a

transaction limit of ₹ 1 lakh, the UPI service is

positioned between full-fledged transfers like NEFT

a smartphone can lend, borrow or invest money,

make payments, seek financial advice and manage portfolios at the swipe of a screen. More power to consumers brings more power to corporations leading this change.

4

It is 22:00 and Pasha is back to his house after a

wallet transactions is helping it grow. His mobile

weather doesn’t help him relax and the worry of his

which says - “Your SBI account has been credited

gruelling day of selling bananas at the bus depot. The son’s school admission is constantly on his mind.

Lying down, he thinks about his business and how

phone cries loudly, it is a message from his bank

with… Payment ref: PAYTMXXX….”. Pasha sighs and calls it a day with a smile on his lips.

5

CRUDE OIL PRICES Aditya Patil Akshay Nipane SIMSREE Formed from ancient plants and animals; under

supplies to ExxonMobil, low production from Iraq

high temperature, extreme pressure and lack of

who still wasn’t recovered from wartime damage,

has made economies, shaped political boundaries,

day, 1.36 million barrels per day of Nigerian

This primary fuel source, like any other commodity,

oil facilities and many more such events

behave differently over different time-horizons, if

it went as low as 17.27.

be said with fair certainty that one cycle takes about

decade, it comes out to be 73.12. So while we are

Month Price( in $)

are getting it at nearly same average price!

September 98 24.90

Rising crude oil price is a double edged sword for

September 00 44.81

commodity under concern is linked to dollar($)

oxygen over hundreds of thousands of years, oil is a saboteurs blowing up the two main oil export pipelines thereby cutting about 300,000 barrels per lifeline of any economy. This commodity by itself created wars & abused civil rights.

production shutting off due to militant attacks on

follows cyclic behaviour of commodity. Though it is contributed to this upheavel. On the other hand, the burst in price occurred in November 1998 when difficult to find cycle period of oil as oil prices we take a look at oil prices over last 20 years, it can

If we take a 10 year average of crude oil for last

12-14 years.

getting frenzied about the rising crude oil price, we

September 97 33.17 September 99 36.86

India as quantum of imports are humongous &

September 01 33.18

price.

September 03 39.80

The rising oil prices have become an albatross

September 05 84.12

products, India has mainly two problems. For

September 07 98.89

adequate export of refined petroleum products

September 09 82.54

for domestic consumption. But for the crisis arising

September 11 88.15

as demand is inelastic.

September 13 110.31

Sanctions on the Iran are posing serious problems

September 15 47.84

is tailor made for the Indian refineries as most of the

Last peak in price occurred in June 2008 when price

Iranian crude oil. In simple terms, the refineries give

(Though it dropped to $33.87 five months later).

Iranian crude oil. It is extremely difficult for the

changes in market fundamentals—surging demand

in a short span of time. The much talked about Iran-

contributed to this upheaval. Venezuela cutting

revived to help India meet its increasing gas

September 02 42.48 September 04 65.97

around India’s neck. In respect to petroleum

September 06 78.26

scenario where there is rise in demand, India has

September 08 116.14

(around $24.1 billion in 2017) which can be diverted

September 10 92.45

from supply side constraint, India has no solution

September 12 100.58 September 14 96.72

for India. The oil produced from the Iranian oil fields

September 16 50.46

Indian refineries are configured to process the

touched 161.56$. This was highest ever in history!

their maximum efficiency when they are refining

Although this atypical rise was consistent with

refineries to switch from one crude to other crude

and falling supply; many seemingly small shocks

Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline dream needs to be

6

requirement.

on daily basis but the rise is done in unison manner.

There were a few moments which India could have

while 3-4 companies of India are acting together to

taken advantage of but could not. For example, in

2015, when the oil prices were lower and the assets

were available at attractive cost abroad, the surplus with ONGC could have been used to garner the assets abroad. Instead, India went with assets acquiring at domestic front.

Various industry forums & trade associations like FICCI, ASSOCHAM are demanding reduction in

excise duty. This may seem as an easy option, but

reducing excise duty will have a serious effect on the

Competition commission is keeping its eyes shut

regulate the price. In such scenario, the imports are progressively rising, but the exports of the refined

products are stagnant. Due to the high retail selling

price in domestic markets, the private players do not find any need to sell their products in the

international market. There has been huge rise in the number of retail outlets of these private refineries

because they realize the pricing mechanism that has been created on the improper principles is bonanza for them.

budget deficit. Post-2014, we saw major

We need genuine reforms in the prices of domestic

attributed to falling oil prices & progressive

play where refineries are competing against each

improvement in the fiscal health of India which was imposition of excise duty. Managing the rising CAD is a challenging task in ever increasing USD rates.

There might be drawbacks of not cutting the taxes on

petrol and diesel. Let the true efficiency come into

other to improve their efficiencies so that the refining cost comes down.

petroleum products, but cutting the taxes may add

While these remedies seem too ideal to be

All in all, cutting excise duty is not going to solve the

live in the reality. We have to accept the fact that we

fuel to already increasing Balance of payment crisis. problem. This issue needs much more fundamental change.

One of the fundamental changes could be reviewing

the Trade Parity Price (TPP). The crude consumption pattern is 80% import-20% export to determine the dealer level prices. This 80-20 bifurcation was the outcome of controlled petroleum prices. Our

venerability for the oil will always be there as long as

we have 80% import dependence on crude oil. Petrol and diesel were deregulated a few years ago, but the deregulation that India is following is pseudo-

deregulation. At present, OMCs revise the price

implemented, they are need of the hour. We have to are subjected to a commodity that is highly

influenced by the geopolitical events. Let us also remember the fact that America and Western

countries now do not rely on the Middle East for their oil needs. We are the ones who are completely

dependent on the Middle Eastern oil. We are going to bear the brunt if any mishaps happen in Middle

East. Frankly speaking, we have limited number of options available at the disposal to influence the policies of the oil producing countries.

We can only try to mitigate the effects it causes on our economy.

7

IS THERE A RISE IN DEMAND FOR PROTECTIONISM? Niranjan Reddy P National Institute of Agricultural Extension Management (MANAGE) As this year marks the decennial of the collapse of

Goods” twice in a month. First on 19 items that

economic crisis in the modern day world, and from

was followed by another round of increase in

Lehman Brothers, which leads to a greatest

that lessons are learnt to prepare for next one. But

the vital question is “What probably will trigger the

includes Diamonds, Footwear, and Grey goods. It import duties on products that mainly from

telecom industry, and this list is growing day by

next global recession and crisis?” The answer might day. All these are symptoms of rise in demand for

be the “Mr. Trump, a bull in the World trade, and his protectionism in the world and leads to breakdown policies which provoking the protectionism in the

of global integration.

The Liberalization, Privatization, and Globalization

The Economic negatives associated with the

standards of people worldwide. The integration of

Distortion in movement of capital, Inefficiency in

globe”.

was the major contributors to escalate the living

many developing economies into a one place for trade, and amicable policies for trade between

nations, thrust the national incomes for higher

levels and elevate millions above the poverty line.

The Economic Crisis before a decade, brought

down that growth to a minimal level; however,

recently the world trade has been turning into the upward path with a slight increase in the normal

growth in the average growth of world GDP that is

protectionism in the world is very well known to all. the full employment in resources, Increases in the prices of consumables, Unemployment etc. all

these leads to decline in the global growth, IMF

reviewed its global growth forecast from 3.9 to 3.7 for a year 2018-19, citing the reasons of Trade

tensions and protectionism. Along with these

protectionism poses one more threat: Increase in Inflation.

around 5 percent. Yet this inchoative growth is at

Cost-Push inflation is the worst kind of inflation,

obstacles for global economic integration.

caused by protectionism. To elaborate this,

risk due to the anti-globalization sentiment and

United States Administration has embarked on an aggressive trade war with countries like China,

which is America’s one of the major supplier of low cost inputs and consumer goods. US imposed a

25% tariffs on steel imports and 10% on aluminum

from European Union, for that Europe retaliate with

tariffs on about 2.8 billion euros worth US products.

And it withdrew from Trans-Pacific Partnership

(TPP) and started renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Brixit movement happening in the European continent. The above scenarios are issues of developed nations And

Populist nations argue that protectionism will give

protection for domestic producers, and some other adopts to reduce the current account deficit. For example, India responds for widening Current

account deficit and falling Indian rupee against a

dollar, by hiking custom duties on “Non-essential

because it is structural in nature, which is mainly Protectionism turns global markets into a local one.

The inflationary impulse is partly due to tariffs and due to trade barriers, which prevent the local

markets from benefitting from access to cheaper

inputs and labor. Which in turn increases the cost of production leads to spike up the final goods prices.

To illustrate this, US steel prices has been

increased than China and Europe, after US imposes tariff, Every industry which uses steel – i.e. every manufacturing, industrial and construction

industries pays a premium price for steel, which

goose the output prices, marks the inflation rise.

Protectionism forces the machine shops and labour intensives works to offer a higher wages to lure the skilled workers, although the productivity won’t

increase. Other workers too demands hike in the

wages. Individual may get rise in pay, but in holistic society will suffer with inflation.

8

The protectionism breed to inflation, which can

The group of world’s 20 largest economies met

which has inflation in a upward trend, and seen

where they stressed on the importance of World

observed in countries like US, Mexico, and Argentina nearly one percent rise in each between Q1 2018 to Q2 2018.

According to Competitiveness Research Network, the firms that exports have a greater productivity, and pays higher wages. But barriers in trade will

undermine this competitive advantage for exporting firms and brings down economy as a whole.

An economic shutdown between the world’s

economies doesn’t yield fruit for any country,

Industry, Sector. As Henry George summarized

“Protectionism is what we do to ourselves in times of peace, what enemies seek to do us in war times”,

Protectionism is a costly phenomenon – at least for small open economies, even for those who used it temporarily, even used when economies struck in liquidity trap and regardless of the flexibility of exchange-rates.

on a G20 summit in the early week of October, Trade Organization as a forum to resolve the

Protectionism issue by accepting the draft of the reform proposal called “Strengthening and

Modernizing the WTO” prepared by Canadian Government. The12th Asian-Europe Meeting

held in Brussles, brought 30 European leaders with their counterparts from Asian nations,

Together the group accounts for two-third of the world’s economic output and contributes 55 percent of world trade are pledged to have a “Rules – based global trade and pledged to Multilateralism”. This kind of treaties are

bringing little hopes among the economists and people, about restoring of globalization and

liberalization of trade between the countries and establishment of Global Economic Integration among all nations, which makes globe as a “Single Market” again.

9

BASEL V/S INDIAN BANKS: TIFF OR TRUCE? Madhulika Jadhav NIBM, Pune “A bank is a place where they lend you an umbrella

and Pillar III (market disclosures). Basel III was

begins to rain.” This famous quote by Robert Frost

not supersede either Basel I or II, but focuses on

in fair weather and ask for it back again when it

sketches beautifully the good and dark side of the banks. In earlier times banking came into picture

because people needed to double their money and that to safely. Banks in the historic times had a

simple lending and borrowing function. But now it

has completely transformed into a complex system which renders services like lending, investment,

trading, hedging and many more. The mechanism is so complex that sometimes it could lead to a heavy jolt into the system. Similar debacle occurred

developed in response to the financial crisis; it does different issues primarily related to the risk of a bank run. Minimum tier 1 capital – the key

constituent of the banks’ funds a significant part of which should be in the form of shares – should

amount to 7% of the lenders' risk weighted assets and the total capital at 9%. In addition, a 2.5%

Capital Conservation buffer is to be maintained, taking the requirement to 11.5% of the risk weighted assets.

during 2008 in America when the whole financial

The RBI initiated reforming Indian banking Sector

“systemically important” corporations. These series

commercial Banks in 1992. Earlier the CRAR level

system froze because of collapse of major

of crises was due to mortgage lending to “subprime customers” who ended up by defaulting on these loans.

To overcome from this catastrophe and to prevent it from happening in future, representatives from

the central bank and regulatory authorities came up with a set of recommendations for regulations in

banking industry the “Basel Accords”. These rules acted as a prototype that how should a bank

manage its liquidity issues and the amount of

capital reserves to be held to absorb the losses so

that it won’t hit the depositor’s money. Basel I and

Basel II were developed to ensure minimum capital requirements for the banks. Basel I included rules for credit risk and market risk. The Basel II

superseded the Basel I and was intended to amend international banking standards that controlled

how much capital banks were required to hold to guard against the financial and operational risks

banks face. These regulations aimed to ensure that the more significant the risk a bank is exposed to,

the greater the amount of capital the bank needs to hold to safeguard its solvency and overall

economic stability. It had three pillars Pillar I

(regulatory capital), Pillar II (supervisory review)

through adopting Basel I norms for Scheduled

was 8% norm by 1996, but in RBI monetary policy

review the norms were raised to 9% of CRAR level.

Studies found that Indian banks have successfully adopted Basel I and II norms. The Basel III norms came with the aftermath of financial shocks and needed to apply for stringent capital adequacy norms in order to absorb jerks coming from

liquidity problems and to avoid bank run. The

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) introduced the norms in India in 2003. It now aims to get all commercial

banks BASEL III-compliant by March 2019. So far,

India’s banks are compliant with the capital needs.

On average, India’s banks have around 8% capital adequacy. This is lower than the capital needs of

10.5% (after taking into account the additional 2.5% buffer). In fact, the BASEL committee credited the RBI for its efforts. These norms were tougher for Indian banks as they already had to keep CRR

(capital reserve ratio) and SLR (statutory liquidity ratio) as mandated by the RBI. This means more

money has to be kept aside further stressing the

balance sheet. According to the Basel Committee

on Banking Supervision (BCBS) report, core capital requirement for banks as prescribed by the RBI is 1 per cent higher than what Basel III norms

recommend. Indian banks as per RBI direction are

10

required to maintain 5.5 per cent Common Equity

Central government to loosen up the capital held

the Basel III framework.

RBI was in a view that the capital can be utilized in

Tier 1 (CET 1) as against 4.5 per cent required under

Maintaining such huge amount of capital buffer was very difficult for Indian banks as more capital was being tied up in creating buffers and there were

fewer amounts to lend. This led to shrink in the profit

margins of the banks and halt their growths. With the

by the RBI and transfer it to the government. The stressed situations. More recently the RBI has

eased the capital adequacy requirements according to the Basel-III; Banks will have to meet the capital conservation buffer norms under Basel III by 31 March 2020.

rising NPA’s in the balance sheet of commercial

In order to fully imbibe the Basel III into the banks

Moreover about 11 banks are under the PCA (Prompt

requirements as many developed do not have these

banks these stricter regimes are difficult to follow.

Corrective Action) framework by the RBI which more or less stops the banks from lending, increasing deposits etc.

A few months ago there was a spat between RBI andÂ

the RBI should give up on the CRR and SLR

mandates. The norms are creating an additional

buffer which is stopping the banks from growing.

The RBI should also ease the norms for banks

under the prompt corrective action. Moreover

stringent rules should be there to control the flow of credit.

11

FROM NOTHING COMES THE SYSTEM Ankit Barnwal SRCC (GBO) The A, B, C’s

slicing on the cake. The system of credit rating

sounds so authentic that one can’t help to simply

otherwise (and still not become wiser!).

Credit Rating Agencies(CRA’s)-The term itself

question the ratings assigned by these agencies.

seems iron clad on paper but lately we have seen

And why shall the matter be any different when all the credible CRA’s are licensed by SEBI – the

watchdog of securities market. But the time has

shown that even the God is not perfect and so how can be the mighty representative of our securities market!

It only makes sense to lend money to trusted

groups/projects. But the entire pastime of CRA’s is based upon the trustfulness of a potential project.

This trustfulness, when measured, evolves into

credit ratings screaming the credit worthiness of a particular debt instrument. Thus this seemingly

obvious choice of forwarding one’s hard earned

money only to trusted debt instruments is not so obvious after all. An entire mechanism of fully

functioning sleuth of Credit rating agencies are responsible for it, at least supposedly!

The System

Credit rating doesn’t have a much distant past in

India, coming into existence in the second half of 1980’s. Currently SEBI permits only six CRAs to function in India which are

1. Credit Rating Information Services of India Limited (CRISIL)

2. Investment Information and Credit Rating Agency of India Limited(ICRA)

3. Credit Analysis and Research limited (CARE) 4. Brickwork Ratings (BWR)

5. India Rating and Research Pvt. Ltd.

6. Small and Medium Enterprises Rating Agency of India (SMERA)

These CRAs operate under regulations of SEBI and rates various debt instruments and debt issuing

organizations based upon which investors proceed their money. Creditors trust these ratings simply because of the fact that one can’t analyze the

creditworthiness of each institution on their own.

Further these CRAs being SEBI backed serve a

(various credit ratings and their significance) The Sins of my past

Heading straight back to the Achilles heel, the 2008 sub-prime crisis in the US, which shadowed the entire financial world was courtesy of modestly

high credit ratings to low quality mortgage backed securities by America’s CRA S&P, Moody’s and a

few others. Moody’s raked up fines of $864 million for its role in 2008 crisis, while incorrect rating

practices has led to fines of €1.2mm in Europe.

Standard & Poor’s (S&P) paid $1.4bn for rubber stamping dicey mortgage bonds.

Going desi(indigenous), one can hardly forget the

mixed records of CRA’s in our nation. While cases such as Amtek Auto and Ricoh Indian led tighter disclosure norms by SEBI. Such meagre inapt

slandering has its frit ripened- the devastating

problem of rising NPAs in Indian banking system.

NPAs are essentially bad loans, the loans which are unlikely to be recovered! Indian banks’ bad loans

stand at a humongous absurd Rs 10.25 lakh crores

as on 31st march 2018(according to RBI data). That

constitutes around 22% of our Rs 44.34 lakh crores annual GDP which is more than enough to raise

brows of an economist let alone a “rating” agency.

The CRA’s seem like innocuous bystanders

12

amongst this crisis, only that they are actually not.

Let’s look at how data never lies!

the companies had already began defaulting.

10% of corporate groups account for nearly 20% of all distressed loans (House of Debt). Over the last

year, there have been a barrage of opinion articles by various experts across all mainstream newspapers most of which conspicuously missing the

inadvertent role of these innocent bystanders.

According to Credit Suisse estimates, this house of

debt group had a total debt of nearly Rs 3 lakh crore

as of FY 2010.By FY 2014, their debt ballooned to Rs 7 lakh crore including 20 individual companies that

belong to these 10 corporate groups. In the 3 years

from FY11 to FY 13, every single one of these House

of Debt companies were deemed to be in the low risk or no risk category by all the credit rating agencies.

The recent IL&FS case is most interesting, at least for someone rare not affected by the financial NBFC

sector hit. The rating agencies simply reaffirmed the

AAA- rating of IL&FS debt instrument even when the

dues were delayed since months. That was only until the black swan event occurred this august when

IL&FS itself confirmed the inability to meet its dues.

The CRA’s, again as with NPAs in 2014, abruptly slashed the rating from AAA- straight to a D (imminent default).

Source: Credit Suisse

Armed with these strong credit ratings, these

corporate groups went on a massive borrowing

spree and as a result an astonishing one-third of all corporate bank loans went to these corporate

groups. Now 7 of these 10 groups had dangerously high level of debt starting FY12 indicating stressed balance sheets, which was more than enough to

FRUIT OF THE POISONOUS TREE

never downgraded. Cut to early FY13, many of these

SEBI authorized private CRAs comes from nothing-

enough to meet their interest liabilities, yet the

these credit ratings nor from the stock markets

downgrade their credit ratings, only that they were

This supposedly efficient system of credit ratings by

CRA’s “golden goose” were not even earning

no remittances from either the investors who use

strong credit ratings continued.

which expect a fair rating of different companies

It was only in late 2014 that the credit ratings of many

soul, the bread and butter, from the companies it has

grade to default imminent status, only after few of

CRAs obtain their revenue from the companies being

of these groups were abruptly slashed from high

listed on it. On the contrary this system acquires its

a responsibility to rate, the ‘issuer pays’ model. The

13

rated which has proven a toxic pollutant for the

compelling paradigm shift unlike GST making this

2008, RBI constituted an advisory committee on

appears to remain. So going by the sad state of

whole financial ecosystem. Post the financial crisis of gauging the exposure of Indian credit rating system to such systemic failures. This committee though recommended no urgent need of tightening

regulations but silently advocated towards doing

away from this Issuer pay model. A better alternative could be the ‘subscription model’ where rather than charging the companies being rated, the investors

are charged a fixed amount for access to the ratings done by the CRA’s. This will not only eliminate the

dependency of the assessors(CRAs)on the assesses

still just a matter of debate and the status quo

affairs of misinformed debates sticking the entire

blame of NPAs and IL&FS crisis only upon the mere existence of the public sector banks. Most certainly the banks won’t have loaned such huge credit to these failed units if the CRA’s hadn’t bestowed

exceptional credit ratings upon these units. This

being a clear mystery needs no Sherlock to solve, just an upheaval of the present credit rating system!

(companies being rated) but will also fix a

(The author, Ankit Barnwal, possesses wide array

monetarily. Unfortunately, there appears no

research and is currently pursuing PGD-GBO

responsibility of the former towards the investors political gain sating our political class from such

of industrial work experience in operations

(Global Business Operations) at Shri Ram College of Commerce, Delhi University, INDIA).

14

CHINESE ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN: REALITY Akash Bhatia IIT Kharagpur The slowdown in the Chinese economy is not a

improvement in the education of the workforce and

transition, the outcome of which will determine the

most trained and mobile workforce will continue to

cyclical crisis. It is part of a deep and complicated future of China and, with it, the rest of the world.

The reality of the economic slowdown in China,

the level of skills have also slowed down. While the

contribute to productivity growth, it is impossible to keep up with the past.

stripped of the essential, has to do with the

A second important contribution to productivity

factors for productivity growth that has driven the

allocation system to a price-driven market

diminution of the effectiveness of several key

country's spectacular economic expansion over the past three decades. These include the increase in

the quality and quantity of the workforce, the more efficient allocation of resources and investment

capital, the rapid updating of technology and the sustained high growth of exports.

When economic reform began in the late 1970s, the vast majority of the Chinese labor force worked in agriculture, using tools and methods not unlike

was the transition from a top-down resource

economy. This was crucial to allow the emergence and expansion of a private sector, which could be driven by changing price signals in the search for new investments and market opportunities. In

recent years, private sector investments have grown to represent two-thirds of the total. The gains in the

efficiency of the allocation were absolutely massive,

as described by Nicholas R. Lardy in the Market Over Mao: The Rise of Private Business in China.

However, the transition to market prices generally

centuries ago. Although literacy and basic education occurs (notable exceptions are the banking and oil have been strongly promoted under socialism, only 2% of young adults have had any kind of post-

secondary education. Over the next three decades,

sectors) and their contribution to higher

productivity increases will inevitably be lower.

hundreds of millions of agricultural workers moved

These two contributors to productivity growth have

sites, trained in the use of modern equipment and

rapidly update its technology. Foreign direct

from villages to factories and urban construction machinery. By 2016, around two thirds of the

population is urban and over 30% of young adults

have university education. According to data from

been largely complemented by China's ability to

investment (FDI) has played an important role in this regard. IED flows tend to arrive with more advanced technologies, as well as technical and managerial

the National Bureau of Statistics of China, during the knowledge. Foreign multinationals have been a same period, the Un Niño policy also produced a

massive demographic dividend with an increasing

critical channel in technology transfer (voluntarily

or not, depending on the case). However, as China's

percentage of working age and total population. The technological capabilities are close to that of net effect was a growing and increasingly

advanced economies, the recovery is becoming

But the demographic dividend ended in 2012, when

Finally, the Chinese economy has benefited greatly

population peaked, ironically caused by the same

have grown on average by 17% per year for three

productive workforce.

the relationship between working age and total Un Niño policy that produced the

demographic dividend, amplified by the growing longevity of the population. The pace of

much more difficult.

from its exports of extraordinary success, which

decades, according to the International Monetary Fund, a surprising record. This has pushed China

15

from a small player to become the biggest exporter in the world today. However, as the world's largest

exporter, Chinese exports can not grow much faster than the world economy. To try to do so, China will

have to continually remove market shares from other

exporters, which will be economically demanding and politically disastrous. In the next decade and beyond, China will have to deal with the low growth rates to a figure of exports.

The economic slowdown in China is, therefore,

natural and desirable. It is natural because most of the cheap fruit has already been harvested, such as price

liberalization and the export of labor with little added value. And it is desirable because the slowdown requires a transition to higher value-added

production, increasing wages, consumption.

China is not there yet. To successfully complete the

transition, China must abandon some old habits and risk taking new initiatives. While the rapid urbanization of China has created a fertile

environment for private entrepreneurs, especially in the service sector; must be supported by better

access to more investment capital. The practice of the banking and financial sector will have to change.Â

While China is poised to create mega metropolitan regions with over one hundred million inhabitants each, the way the 250 million migrants without residence permits will be absorbed and

significantly integrated into Chinese urban society will influence the outcome. Social policies on

residence control, access to public services and

provision of social assistance will have to change.

There are many challenges to be faced.

For now, however, it is a mistake to look at China's GDP growth rates, which is to lose the overall

image altogether. In 2010, 10% growth in real GDP added $ 606 billion to the economy. However, in

2017, 6% growth added $ 1,202 billion, double the 10% growth in 2010. Although India's real GDP growth rates have exceeded those of China in

recent years, the every two year period from 2010

what China has added to its GDP is bigger than all of the Indian GDP. As a result, the gap between

Chinese and Indian economies is widening, not

diminishing. Despite the economic slowdown in China, the scale and influence of the global

Chinese economy will expand, and this is the broader picture we need to look at.

16

THE BUSINESS OF GAMING Yash Agarwal FORE School of Management However, what is really remarkable is the growth of ‘Battle Royale’ games. Battle Royale genre, which

involves gamers fighting in a shrinking playground

to be the last player standing, has seen tremendous success and estimated to generate $12.6 billion in

revenue this year, up from just about $1.7 billion in 2017.

Fortnite, PUBG, Ring of Elysium are some of the games spearheading Battle Royale genre rise to Ever seen a group of people busy concentrating on

huge popularity. In addition, with more and more

plugged in. Chances are they are busy playing the

gaming trend, Battle Royale revenue is expected to

their cell phones, sitting silently with earphones

game studios trying to capitalize on the biggest

super hit game PlayerUnknown’s Battlegrounds

ascend to $20 billion next year.

(PUBG). A few years ago, college fads revolved

around clothes and music. Now they are equally or more likely to involve video games. What is even

crazier is the fact that competitive video gaming can soon be the newest Olympic sport.

The gaming industry is booming, along with the

expanding demographics of gamers. With more

people playing games and creating demand for more immersive entertainment (Video games are also

cheaper to consume than cable television or going to the movies), the future of the video game industry looks bright.

According to Newzoo (a market research firm that

The gaming industry could not have taken off

without widespread use of mobiles. Mobile gaming has played a big role in the rise of the gaming

tracks usage and trends of video games, mobile and industry and will continue to do so; it has shown 10 e-sports), gamers will spend roughly $138 billion years of double-digit growth since 2007 (launch of around the world this year. This sum represents a

iPhone) and is expected to grow 25.5% year on year

13.3% increase year on year, i.e. an extra $16.2 billion. to reach $70.3 billion.

Different games are using a diverse variety of

innovative revenue models: Games that involved a single transaction of buying have decreased in popularity. Some games are free and are

completely driven by advertisement revenue. The most popular model is the freemium model,

wherein, the games are free or inexpensive to download but users can spend more to buy

additional items to enhance their gameplay.

Another area, which has seen huge growth, is eSports or competitive gaming.

17

According to a report from Newzoo, revenues from

eSports are expected to cross $900 million in 2018, a major jump from $655 million in 2017. The revenue

from eSports consists of advertising, sponsorships, media rights and game publisher fees. In addition,

developers receive fees when tournaments include games developed by them.

A big opportunity

Games can also create a positive externality; they are a great way to develop Artificial Intelligence.

This is due to several reasons; AI can use games as training grounds for the real world. In addition,

different games require diverse cognitive skills, and games can enable them to break the problem of

intelligence into smaller, more sensible chunks.

Another recent addition to this industry is the

blockchain based gaming. Developers can employ the decentralized characteristics of the blockchain framework to cut the middleman and go

to customers directly. In addition, games can

accept payments in cryptocurrencies rather than traditional payment methods. Blockchain

applications can have massive potential that needs to be exploited further.

Gaming presents a huge opportunity for a country like India. The Indian gaming market is currently pegged around $890 million and is expected to

continue its golden run. The booming opportunity in digital gaming has prompted investors and

companies like Alibaba backed-Paytm, Tencent,

Youzu and Nazara to keep a keen eye on India and be a part of the next big game that is about to sweep the market.

As we know, the Indian market has greatly

benefitted from growing smartphone penetration

and availability of 4G speeds. However, this is only the first step. A lot more needs to be done. An increased focus on the local development of

games, a large volume of users and the rising

potential of monetization is needed at the earliest.

Another area can be promoting eSports and the ability for players to bet on the games they play (income from wagering should be duly taxed).

Artificial Intelligence & blockchain applications

should be developed further. Moreover, special policies need to be implemented that can make gaming a significant sector creating jobs for

thousands of millennials who can join the creative workplace.

18

OPTIONS HAVE A FUTURE Akash Agarwal Neha Deshmukh N.L. Dalmia Institute of Management Studies and Research In order to build wealth, we need to invest. The

that is , cover the down side of the market and at the

which have fixed but low returns, and as it is truly

rides over the market.

avenues for investment are Fixed income securities same time make profit out of it even when bear said by Robert Arnott that ‘In investing, what is

comfortable is rarely profitable’ ,So people invest in Investing in derivatives have a lot of benefits. The stock market which is riskier than fixed income securities but provide higher returns and the

ability to leverage by investing a small amount to gain exposure to a much larger investment is the

products can vary from investing in cash markets to key benefit of derivatives. Futures and Options are future derivatives. But with such a high volatility witnessed in stock market these days, panic has

used to manage the portfolio risks. Futures

Contracts, standalone, are like raging bulls. But the

gripped the investors and has put them in a situation combination of futures and options provide an where they are in a dilemma about when and where excellent investing strategy. to invest. For example, on September 21, 2018, the

BSE benchmark SENSEX swung ,1500 points before For a limited risk and maximum profits can be settling the day and this happened with NIFTY too.

achieved in derivatives by combining the bull and

The question here arises that Markets have always

future contract of say security X with a required

the bear spreads. The strategy involves buying a

behaved irrationally, so how does one strategize his number of lots and then buying the same number investments to make profits out it, without burning

of lots in the put contract at the strike price

where even a small bad news leads to high

Now the security X can be an Index, a script or any

his fingers even in such a highly volatile market, fluctuations?

Investing in derivatives can be one of the solutions.

Derivatives is a widely misunderstood term. This word often conjures up visions of speculative

dealings, a big boom and a big crash. Also the most prevailing misconception is that derivatives should be used only to Hedge your positions when the

equivalent to the future contract price.

commodity. Let’s take an example of NIFTY futures and option as trading in nifty provides

diversification, requires fewer margins, are highly liquid contracts and can be used to hedge against the stock portfolio as Nifty being a benchmark index of NSE, so most of the stocks reflect the trend.

price curves tends to have negative slope and thus

freeze your position at the hedged price and wait for another cycle to achieve the same level of prices which may even take long time and may put the investor in doubt about his forecasts and may compel him to square of his positions.

But these notions are not true. So the question that arises here is that can there be a derivative strategy that can help cover risks which would arise on the

trading of securities on which the derivative is based

19

Description:

Case 1: Buy Nifty Futures say for an example @ 10,000 for one month and roll over the position

every month till the term of the investment. Also buy a Put option contract of Nifty @10,000 strike price of equal lots as that of Future contract and

considering the premium value for the put option contract to be Rs 200.

Suppose, the value of Nifty falls to 9500.There will be a Rs500 loss in futures and a Rs500 gain in put option of which we need to pay Rs200 as premium so net profit in put will be Rs 300. The overall loss in the

transaction will be -500 + 300 = -200. So a Rs 200 loss in the overall transaction.

Case 2: Roll over the previous position by buying

Nifty Futures @ 9500 and a Put Option contract of Nifty @ 9500 strike price with say Rs 200

premium. Now, if the Nifty recovers back to its

previous value of 10,000 then it will be a profit of Rs 500 in futures and a loss of Rs 500 in the

put option. The put option will not be exercised and hence we will have to pay only the

premium value. So the net profit will be 500(futures) - 200(put) = Rs 300.

Case 3: Buy the Nifty Futures Contract @ 10,000. Buy Put Option of Nifty @ 9500 strike price, the

lowest value of Nifty in our investment cycle so that

we can prevent any losses to our investment value.

As we are buying the Put option out of the money hence the value of the premium will be very low say Rs 20. Now suppose the Nifty value goes to

11000. As, Nifty has gone to 11000, there will be a

profit of Rs 1000 in futures and a loss of Rs 1000 in put option. We will not exercise the put option thus minimizing our loss only to the premium

value. The total net profit will be = 1000-20 = Rs 980.

Thus as the value of Nifty will go on increasing, the investment will make profit in futures and the loss

will be restricted to the premium value. Also, as the value of Nifty goes on increasing the we will buy

the Put option with the lowest value of Nifty in our investment cycle and hence the value of premium required to be paid will be very low. Thus this

investment approach provides for an unlimited

profit for a limited loss of the premium amount.

Derivatives are highly risky investments, but if you adopt safeguards, they can be rewarding as well. **Disclaimer: All the information and views

present in the article are hypothetical and are for

the information purpose only and in any form does not gives any recommendation or advisory.

Investors are advised to make their own sound discretion and judgement before investing.

20

RBI'S CAPITAL FRAMEWORK & STAND-OFF WITH CENTRE Tanmay Hazari FORE School of Management There has been a long standoff between RBI and the

government. The surplus after allocation is

With elections overhead, the government is trying

budget session. A settlement is reached every year

current government over RBI's Capital framework.

hard to fulfil its promise of increasing rural incomes, improve unemployment condition and address the

transferred to the government every year before the by showing flexibilities from both sides.

ongoing liquidity issue in the current market.

But with elections overhead and over a dozen PSUs

The Government wants to reset the existing capital

means they can't lend money to industry and thus

framework of RBI by recoursing a section 7 never

used in 83 years of history of RBI to free a cash worth

bank under Prompt corrective action (PCA), which the MSME lending have gone down.

of 3.6 lakh crores from RBI's cash surplus which is

The government wants the surplus cash from the

transferred to the government.

MSME and Shadow lending to boost the economy.

approximately 2.1 % of last year's GDP to be

The framework governs the risks of RBI for

absorbing the losses in currency value and forex market operations. The timing of government

RBI to push liquidity in the market and increase

The government will also be trying to increase the

rural income by providing the promised minimum support prices for crops to the farmers.

mounting pressure on RBI's War chest is though

NBFCs sector had a tremendous growth in previous

independence of the Central bank who were praised

major lenders are facing redemption pressure and

questionable that it is trying to curb the

for their policies during the 2008 economic crisis. A lot of global banks went out of business but RBI

managed the liquidity crisis and maintained smooth operations for Indian banks. Though RBI's current capital structure of capital adequacy is a little

stringent as compared to BASEL - III norms and that can be relaxed if the government insists.

4-5 years, but with the IL&FS debacle, most of the

lack of cash for further lending.Huge cash outflow from the primary market and Mutual funds are adding more to the liquidity crisis. The RBI's

contingency funds have been reduced from 12% to 6% over a span of 10 years and it is working on a

system that will systematically access the risk-buffer requirement of the funds required.

So, what is RBI's WAR CHEST?

Under the tenure of Ex-RBI governor Mr Raghuram

of the government securities holding, overnight

buffer limit, it was transferred to the government in

The income that the RBI incurred from the interest lending to commercial banks and returns from

foreign currency assets and the main expenditure is

the cost of printing currency, agency commission to commercial banks & salaries to 17000+ employees.

The estimated level of funds RBI holds right now is 9 lakh crores as surplus, but these funds are allocated

by RBI as various statutory funds and meeting

specific provisions such as depreciation in gold,

securities and investments. The tussle is on how much amount RBI should set aside as statutory

funds and how much should it hand over to the

Rajan, the accumulated reserves exceeded the

totality without keeping any surplus. But post-

demonetisation the cost of printing new currency

notes and disposal of collected old currency erodes

the excess surplus that RBI accumulates and now to meet the government's fiscal expectation there is a tussle with the RBI's Capital framework to reduces

the contingency fund allocation of RBI and transfer of the excess funds to the centre. The government

will try to mount pressure to RBI to loosen up on the stringent capital framework policy and ease of lending of banks to MSMEs and shadowÂ

21

lenders to bring back liquidity in the market in RBI's board meet.

RBI's Board Meet Outcome -

Both the centre and the RBI has reached to resolve

the conflict by forming a committee for restructuring the existing Capital Framework and the main issue raised was the liquidity crunch and stringent rules imposed on banks to issue loans to MSMEs and Other shadow lenders. RBI had agreed to take

corrective measures under the PCA framework and

relax some of the norms that will allow the banks to lend money to the MSMEs sector and address the liquidity crunch. What will happen to the 3.6 Lakh

crores of surplus money of RBI is still not certain and will be decided after the committee make any

recommendations. This is the first time that RBI was in direct conflict with the centre that stretched too long that there were discussions of centre using section 7 to vote on a matter going against

the decision of the RBI. But with current monetary

policy and concerns of growing NPAs of banks, the government should not interfere in the works of

the central bank to clean the books of debt-ridden banks. This extra surplus that the RBI holds as

contingency funds can be used in the time of crisis to kick-start the economy or give a rate cut at a later stage to control growing inflation. The

committee that will be formed to look into the

existing capital framework needs to analyse that what per cent of funds that RBI needs as its statutory funds and what amount is to be

transferred to the government. If there is any

change in the structure and government get access to extra funds will help not only the existing

government to complete the pending projects and reach the estimated projections, but it will also

help the next government to be elected in 2019 to

employ these extra funds in Nation's development.

22

DO YOU HAVE WHAT IT TAKES FOR CREDIT ANALYSIS? Parag Nawani IIM Rohtak Quantitative analysis

It includes cash flow analysis, trend analysis, and financial projections. It also entails analysis of

various ratios like interest coverage ratio, debt service coverage ratio, current ratio, etc. and calculation of working capital cycle.

“Credit rating agencies downgraded credit ratings of IL&FS from AAA to D.”- These kind of updates were

running on TVs recently. What do AAA and D mean?

What is a credit rating? A debt investor must be knowing the importance of these terms and downgrade, but for a novice, it might be an unknown thing.

We all listen about the equity market, its volatility and the great returns that the investors get by

investing in various stocks. However, much more

important than the equity market is the debt market, which is bigger than the equity market.

Companies/sovereigns and various other parties

issue short/long-term bonds to raise money from the market to invest in specific projects. Investors

subscribe to these bonds and provide their money to the issuer and in return, receive interest

payments and principal payments. Credit market

plays a critical role in the development of a nation,

since many projects are financed through debt, and many companies expand into new markets using

these bonds. In this article, I have tried to provide

some insights into a proper credit analysis, which is gaining momentum nowadays.

Credit analysis is that analysis which an investor

performs on companies to measure their ability to meet their debt obligations. The credit analysis

pursues to identify the suitable level of default risk associated with investing in that particular entity. I have divided it into Quantitative and Qualitative analysis, the brief of which is explained in the following paragraphs.

Financial projections

Analysts have to perform financial projections for companies taking long-term debt, taking into

account the industry outlook and the company’s future planning. Monte Carlo simulation is one effective method to perform this.

Cash flow analysis

“Cash to a company is like water to a fish. Remember without it, the fish dies.” It is critical to understand

the cash flow of a company. The company might be

showing profits on its statements, but is deprived of real cash generation. That means it won’t be able to pay its obligation.

Financial ratios

The financial statements of a company tell about the financial health of a company. They need to be

properly analyzed for sound credit analysis- the

ratios like interest coverage ratio, and debt service

coverage ratio help in determining the debt-paying capacity of the company. Other measures like working capital cycle tell about the cash

management strategy about the company. These

ratios are to be compared with the industry average to get a better idea of the company performance.

These are some of the important quantitative

parameters to analyze a company from a credit point of view. Other such parameters can be used for a deeper understanding of the company.

Qualitative analysis

Qualitative analysis includes analysis of 5 Cs of

credit. This is the most important framework to analyze the company’s credit position.

23

5 Cs Character (Management quality)

This is an important measure of proper credit analysis. The intent and competency of the

management team of the company determine, to a large extent, the future financial condition of the

company. The debt history of the company and its plans can be analyzed for this parameter.

Capacity

This can be measured by the quantitative analysis of the company, using the financial statement analysis and the financial projections of the company. The trend and cash flow analysis also provides an

insightful idea about the financial capacity of the company.

Capital

This refers to the company’s resources used for the

project. This gives an idea about the serious intent of the company towards the project.

Conditions/Covenants

This refers to the debt covenants mentioned in the bond. The covenants are meant to protect the

investors’ interests. A proper analysis of covenants

provides an idea of the future risk of investing in the bond.

Collateral

It is an asset used as a back-up, that, in the case of a

default, can be used for repayment. Collateral with a

good market value works towards the interests of the investors and can act as a last resort in the case of a

Credit rating

Credit rating agencies assign credit ratings to bonds of various companies, which tell the

investors whether those bonds are investment grade or not. In India, the major credit rating

agencies are CARE, CRISIL, ICRA and India Ratings.

These companies perform a proper credit analysis

of corporate bonds and weigh their performance as per their standards.

Conclusion

The debt market is a critical factor in the growth of nations. The corporates finance many of their

projects using the debt raised from the market.

They expand into new markets using the raised capital. Investors should perform proper due

diligence before investing in these bonds. The

qualitative and quantitative methods presented in the article will help those take more informed

decisions regarding their debt investments. Credit ratings will also help them take their decisions. I hope this article might bring some use to you.

default.

24

2018 IN REAR MIRROR: THE STEALTHY AND ACCELERATED RISE OF FINTECHS IN INDIA'S CREDIT SYSTEM Naveen Kumar IIM Rohtak

2018 has seen a lots of changes in the decade with

JAM trinity and a couple of Huge NPA’s in the

Government led stimulus for economic growth to

crunch in the economy and Voila! You have setup

the US Fed system’s policy of rollback of

the fall of Bitcoin, but in India, one of the unseen or the slow rise was the accelerated spread of Indian

Fintechs through our credit system. In this article, we foray into these pervasive Fintechs which are

making slow inroads into our digital economy and

implementing the “Real Trickle Down” Economics as we know it. Over 10,000 Startups are playing in this sector and becoming an effective catalyst in bringing about some tangible changes and

changing the Indian digital finance ecosystem as we know it. But the main sectors can be grouped into 3 fields namely:

1) Artificial Intelligence 2) Open Banking

3) Blockchain (There is so much to it than the

balance sheets of banks which brings the liquidity the perfect ecosystem for the rise of Fintech. So, now let’s move on to some valuation on these Fintech by using the traditional data.

Valuation – HDFC bank still continues to trade at a crazy 5x the Book value and the same is the case

with other irrational valuations like Kotak, Indusland & Bandhan Banks. But moving on, we see the same wave present in NBFC’s like Bajaj Finserv (6x Book

Value) and others such as Edelweiss, Indiabulls etc.

So with a safe estimate we can say Fintechs also

would be valued at such a crazy valuation. Now, a good question, might be why are we looking at

valuation of Fintechs before understanding what

those Fintechs are? Well it all will come together in the end, so just wait on a little longer.

inefficient Bitcoin...�)

Coming back to Open Banking, we have the entire

Through this article and my primary research, I try

about below for your reference.

to categorize the 3 fields and their pervasive impact

architecture courtesy of KPMG report on what it is all

in Indian Credit sector to understand on how we can equip ourselves better with these to grow and

manage ourselves professionally in these changing landscapes.

Reason for the rise – Now we all heard countless

times about the rise of the Fintechs like Paytm. It is

basically due to a mix of Demonetization, add in the

So what is basically Open Banking in a crux is that

Banks got tired of maintaining the auxiliary services like customer verification, Spend analyzer and loan eligibility. Hence, it started building APIs so that

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Fintechs would take care of this services while it can

version of the payment interface soon which would

products which Fintechs leverage, the APIs offer the

players like PayTM and Google Tez.

focus on the core banking job. Hence, these APIs are Fintechs a super exclusive peek into the customer

change the face of digital payment prominent

banking & transaction data. That is how they are able

Creation of next-gen AI Model in Indian Financial

customers.

With open banking, we saw new revenue streams

to come up with innovative services to the

This arena is still in the nascent stage with relatively amateurish applications like verification, instant

credit score predictor and spend analyzer, but with the coming years, is going to transform into the crucial and impressive segments in the years to come.

Sector

being unlocked with the API’s. But what do the

Fintechs do with the data. Well here comes AI into the picture. AI has been the buzzword whenever

someone mentions what needs to be done to make ourselves prepared to the future. It is a word which is thrown around so frequently that it has lost its essence in the general frame of things. But

Fintechs are utilizing it left and right across Front,

Mid and Back-office operations with a wide variety

of use cases. Some of them are customer services, targeted sales, marketing, smart automation, till compliance and risk management. So all those who are in the business doing compliance for

global banks – well your jobs are at stake. Better

learn coding – this is now a key requirement of JP Morgan Chase analyst which is to Code!

Fintechs would take care of this services while it can focus on the core banking job. Hence, these APIs are products which Fintechs leverage, the APIs offer the Fintechs a super exclusive peek into the customer

banking & transaction data. That is how they are able to come up with innovative services to the customers.

This arena is still in the nascent stage with relatively amateurish applications like verification, instant

credit score predictor and spend analyzer, but with the coming years, is going to transform into the

These are some of the use cases which has been

come.

not a bad thing after all, as it frees us from the

The phenomenal rise of the digital wallets and

things which actually adds customer value to the job

crucial and impressive segments in the years to

summed up where AI is going to strike next. Well it’s mundane things and helps us, focus on complex

numerous apps which you have installed in the

nature.

bonus they provide is due to the rise of UPI.

BLOCKCHAIN, BLOCKCHAIN, BLOCKCHAIN!!!

phones due to the insane offers and the referral WhatsApp has sought the RBI nod to launch its own

Finally, we come to the finance buzzword of the year

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which has been the craze with the ICO’s, countless

is here to stay. One of the more exciting feat is that

are being perpetrated. But in its essence, Blockchain

our fiat currency to leverage blockchain’s

crazy cryptocurrency and innumerable frauds which is an innovative concept which can actually make

financial markets more efficient if utilized properly, and that is what the Fintechs are exactly trying to achieve.

In India, Blockchain technology has permeated quite a bit into our system. Below are listed of some of the use cases.

our central bank is working on a draft to digitize underlying benefits.

Bringing it all together

Now we bring to the end on why it mattered to the valuation. Well these Fintechs are currently are in the business model of burning huge loads of

investors cash to increase market share, increase scalability and then realize profits. Well the

investors who are offering the cash to be burnt are just willing to let go of because of those crazy valuations and that is why it was necessary to

understand where those crazy valuations were arising from.

We have seen the many facets of Fintech. People But the future is very ripe for the taking. From

International funds transfer, trade financing to

reinventing the Capital markets, Blockchain offers untold possibilities for the Indian Financial

Landscape. There is good improvements being

made on the regulatory front to allow these techs to grow.

Crypto currency are not seeing any signs of

backing down in spite of the heavy crackdown by

the government regulators and hence, Blockchain

still confuse digitization with Fintechs but the latter clearly is the future and with reactionary view

associated with the field. For the Fintechs sector, there is going to be a lot of data analysis, data

processing, AI and ML and many more. These

various facets would combine together to form the Digital Economy of India which is already

undergoing significant changes and spreading amongst the credit sector.

Fintechs are clearly the future people. Place your bets!

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