ARBITRAGE October 2018 || IIM Rohtak || FI Club

ARBITRAGE OCT 2018

VOL. 2 ISSUE 11

ARTICLE OF THE MONTH:

US Fed Rate HikeWhat's in store for D-Street and the Indian Economy

FINANCE AND INVESTMENT CLUB

Editor's Note We are pleased to publish the twenty-first issue of ‘Arbitrage’ – Finance and Investment Club’s monthly magazine. Arbitrage aims to cover a diverse range of topics under the wide domain of Finance and Economics. Our goal is to ensure that we provide significant value to the readers through informative articles and articles on current affairs. We would like to thank all the authors for contributing their articles for Arbitrage.

In the Article of the Month – ‘US Fed Rate Hike- What's in store for D-Street and the Indian Economy”, the author Mr. Abhiram Padmanabhan from Indian Institute of Foreign Trade (IIFT) has tried to gauge the impact of recently increased Fed Rates on the Indian economy, and has tried to project an overall economic outlook.

We hope for the continuous support of our authors and readers to make this magazine a success.

-Finance and Investment Club, IIM Rohtak Parag Nawani Siddhesh S Salkar Vineeth Harikumar Naveen Kumar Sankalp Jain Pavankumar S Bibekjyoti Roy Nandi Aditi Patil

Index S.No.

Article

Pg. No.

1

US Fed Rate Hike

1

2

A common currency for ASEAN countries

3

3

Trade Wars between US and China

5

4

Banking Sector in India- Challenges & Opportunities

7

5

Paradox of Gig Economy

10

6

Why Indian Banking Sector is under criticism

12

7

Do you know Mr. Alpha?

8

How can India achieve Financial Inclusion?

16

9

Integration of Finance & Technology

20

10

Consolidation in the Indian Banking Sector

22

11

Change in Investor Sentiment:: Major Recent Economic Events

25

14

US FED RATE HIKE – WHAT’S IN STORE FOR D-STREET AND THE INDIAN ECONOMY? Abhiram Padmanabhan IIFT In the backdrop of aggrandizing the economic outlook and dropping the ‘accommodative’ stance in the monetary policy, the Federal Reserve increased the fed funds rate by 25 basis points on September 26th, 2018. This, in turn, takes the rate to a range of (2-2.5) percent which was the case in April, 2008 which earmarked the advent of the global financial crisis. This marks the 8th instance of revision in the Fed rates since the Federal Reserve began normalizing its economic stance in December, 2015.

The policy-making Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has hinted at another revision in the Fed rates before the close of this year and 3 such hikes in 2019. With the sole driving factor of reviving the economy from the adversities of the 2008 financial crisis, the central bank has resorted to this normalization of the economic policy through the gradual increase in the Fed rates which anchored near zero during the 2008 crisis.

The members of the FOMC indicated that the fund rates would remain higher in comparison to the ‘long-term neutral rate’ that is neither limited nor stimulated.

Economic Outlook Apart from the revision in fed rates, the committee has also put forward a promising view of the US economy.

The GDP is expected to rise to 3.1 percent in 2018, an upward revision from the 2.8 percent projected

ARTICLE OF THE MONTH

in the second quarter of 2018.

The projections for 2021 were released and in line with the long-range forecast, the economy is expected to grow at the rate of 1.8 percent.

As quoted by Edelweiss Investment Research, “a tax-cut fueled economy with rising corporate profitability is pulling unemployment down while widening the fiscal deficit and ballooning the alarmingly high national debt.” The rate of unemployment was 3.9 percent in August, 2018 and the US economy is booming owing to taxcuts and a pro-cyclical fiscal policy.

Impact on the Indian Economy How will the rupee react?

The perilous impact of the hike in Fed rates is the weakening of the Indian Rupee against the US Dollar. Emerging economies have higher inflation and higher interest rates in comparison to developed economies like US. Currently, interest rates in India hover around (7-8) percent with an inflation rate in the range of (4-5) percent. Inflation in the US is close to 2 percent.

So, financial institutions borrow money from the US at lower interest rates (in dollars) and invest in government bonds (in local currency terms) of emerging economies like India to earn higher returns despite considering the higher inflation of the emerging economies. Such an investment is risky considering the fluctuating nature of a developing country like India.

In such a scenario, an increase in the Fed rates would refuel investment in the US thereby making India less attractive to carry out trade.

The investors would sell Indian securities and the benefits from the sale would be invested in the US for higher returns.

Repercussions of the weakening rupee The depreciating rupee has adverse effects on imports leading to widening trade deficits (primarily owing to oil imports). India’s trade deficit which was 14.62 billion dollars in May increased to 16.6 billion dollars in June.

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Increasing inflation affects the foreign investments, thereby, further weakening the Indian Rupee. India’s forex reserves fell to 399.28 billion dollars as quoted by the Reserve Bank of India. The reserves had reached a peak value of 426.08 billion dollars in April, 2018. The rupee has been on the decline since then and has depreciated by 12.53 percent. The RBI has been selling the US dollars to contain the weakening of the rupee, thus reducing the forex reserves.

Exports, on the other hand, are better options but they need to be viable. Organizations with clients based out in the US can leverage this opportunity to increase their net income levels.

default which makes Indian companies vulnerable to economic shocks as per a report from McKinsey Global Institute. Rising interest rates will fuel an increase in refinancing costs and put more bonds at the risk of default owing to the reduction in interest coverage ratio of firms – a measure of how easily a company can pay interest on its debt. Post the 2008 financial crisis, more companies have opted for bond market financing resulting in 20 percent of the corporate debt in the form of bonds.

A stronger dollar and increasing yields on US treasuries would narrow the rate differential between US and India making the Indian bond less attractive to foreign portfolio investors (FPIs). The differential on a 10-year sovereign paper is around 467 basis points. This differentiator would be narrowed down if FPIs hedge their investments.

What does the future have in store for the Indian Economy?

A tweak in the monetary policy of the US affects the global financial and liquidity conditions. The effect on emerging markets is profound. Hence, a Fed rate hike is paramount for policy making in India. Despite this, India can still afford to play the waiting game. With a monthly import bill of 40 billion dollars, our foreign exchange reserves would suffice for at least 10 months going forward which is way above the ideal benchmark of 3 months. This would also serve as cushion to counter the FPI outflows. Also, the US is in a policy normalization phase. Without a fixed exchange rate in place, India would be forced to copy the US course of action.

Looking into the future, a continuous increase in Fed rates would result in a plethora of problems like currency depreciation, retail and monetary inflation and FPI outflows and would hamper the progress of the Indian economy.

Effect on the Capital Bond Markets The increase in Fed rates could result in a sharp rise in emerging-market corporate debt at the risk of

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A COMMON CURRENCY FOR ASEAN COUNTRIES- FREE TRADE AND MOVEMENT OF GOODS AND PEOPLE ACROSS ASIAN COUNTRIES Tejasvini IIM Indore I. Introduction

capital markets and weak central banking

(ASEAN) is a regional group of 10 members

an independent monetary policy may not be very

The Association of South East Asian Nations (Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia,

Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand,

and Vietnam) which promotes economic, political, and security cooperation among them. The

combined GDP of the participating nations is $2.57 trillion [1] and the combined population is about 640 million [2]. The association has led to the

economic integration of Asian countries, but it has been stated by experts that a lack of strategic

vision, weak leadership, and diverging national priorities has limited ASEAN’s impact.

When the Asian Financial Crisis hit in 1997,

exchange rate regimes for different economies of the region were brought into question. Many

countries shifted towards a greater flexibility in

their exchange rates, in the aftermath of the crisis, for different reasons like the fear of floating and,

sometimes, there are official interventions in the

foreign exchange market. After the economic crisis of Asia, many economists have held a popular

belief that developing economies with open capital accounts have two opposing solutions to the

exchange rate problem they face: A free float or a hard peg [3]. A hard peg means the use of a

common currency in the ASEAN or the formation of a monetary union.

II. What does an Optimum Currency Area (OCA) entail?

institutions but the economic loss from giving up large for such countries because history has shown that the record of developing countries in

conducting independent national monetary

policies to minimize cycle fluctuations has been

somewhat patchy. Thus, a currency union may, in fact, lead to commitment to greater

macroeconomic stability from countries that do not have a good record of implementing monetary policies prior to joining the currency union.

The paramount benefit of a common currency is

that it facilitates trade, in both goods and services, and investment among the countries of the union by reducing transaction costs in cross-border

businesses, and removing volatility in exchange

rates across the union which increases the income growth within the region.

When a floating exchange rate regime enters a

nation, exchange rates tend to be more volatile, especially in developing economies with thin capital markets as monetary policies in such countries tend to be pro-cyclical. Growing

uncertainty due to disproportionate volatility in exchange rates diminishes trade, discourages

investment and leads to an overall reduction in

economic growth. Hedging against exchange rate fluctuations through a common currency can

reduce some of the negative effects of a floating exchange rate.

The loss of national autonomy in monetary policy

III. Is a common currency suitable for ASEAN?

currency union by an association of different

There are three sets of factors that can encourage

no scope for the formation of independent

number of countries of the world, a decrease in the

is the key economic cost from the formation of a

countries. When a currency union forms, there is monetary policies by any of the member nations.

Developing countries take the worst hit in the form of constraints while forming independent

monetary policies as they generally have thin

the formation of currency unions: an increase in the role of independent national monetary policies, and globalization.

One factor that can lead to an increase in the number of currency unions is the cost of

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maintaining separate currencies and high floating

in a monetary union but their co-movement is high,

for small countries from joining a common currency

high.

exchange rates for small countries. The net benefits union far outweigh the costs.

The benefits that a national monetary policy can give to a country, especially for smaller developing

countries for counter-cyclical stabilization purposes, is also decreasing as per economists.

The benefits of having fewer currencies to conduct cross-border businesses are larger as, in an

increasingly globalizing world, the sync between

business cycles of different countries is likely to be higher and transactions involving people of independent countries will increase.

The biggest con of a common currency, i.e. giving up monetary policy autonomy, does not seem

applicable to many countries belonging to the ASEAN because a lot of the members of the

then the difficulty in sustainment might not be that It is also difficult to have a large centralized budget

for resource transfers across countries. As in the case of EU, if there is a limit to fiscal imbalances, then the scope for country-specific discretionary fiscal

policies within a currency union would be limited.

An absence of regional institutions and regional reserve pooling mechanisms could also lead to

problems. A common currency for the region would require much greater reserve pooling.

ASEAN also doesn’t have the political preconditions necessary for a common currency but there is a

chance that the due to the economic interests of the

countries, political differences may be set aside so as to form strategically beneficial alliances.

association have a poor record of exchange rate

IV. Conclusion

actually benefit from a monetary policy conducted

having a regional monetary integration they should

management and inflation control. Thus, they could by a more credible central bank.

Although, the difference in the economic

development of the members of the association is

quite large which could make it difficult for a union to sustain a common currency. However, even if the per capita incomes are vastly different across countries

If the ASEAN countries do follow the global trend of remember that economic and political integration is a long process that stretches over time with small,

incremental steps. The ASEAN countries also have the European legacy to look over as an experience

they could learn from and that could prove to be an advantage.

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TRADE WARS BETWEEN US AND CHINA Tripti Lal SRCC BACKGROUND

Congressmen claimed that China indulged in unfair

each other for long. Since liberalisation of Chinese

property rights. Even a range of reforms were

US and China have been major trading partners for economy in 1978, the Asian economy has

penetrated into markets of major developed countries like US, Europe, Middle East etc.

Richard Nixon-Henry Kissinger era helped cement ties with China for trade and subsequently to

foreign investments. Its inclusion in World Trade Organisation in 2001 gave it an added advantage and the trade with US compounded unprecedently.

China, till date, enjoys a favourable balance in trade of goods with US. As per the data of Office of the

United States Foreign Trade Representative, China had a trade surplus (both in goods and services) of approximately $335.4 billion in 2017.

trade practices; infringed upon US intellectual

unleashed that extensively favoured, protected and promoted the domestic industries and there was

lack of transparency in trade rules and regulations.

As given in the below figure, the anti-dumping

cases against China by US had increased multi-fold.

Out of the 25 complaints filed by US in WTO after 2008, 16 were against China. In recent years, to

expedite the process, Trump ordered a complete review of the Trade Act of 1974 that was signed

between General Ford and Mao Zedong, allowing for free labour movement and giving right to the

President to alter the policy as a response to unfair trade practices.

The current Trump administration also alleged that while Chinese economy has grown 800% since its entry to WTO, the US economy has substantially

slowed down due to high trade deficit with China.

Yet the trade relations between two superpowers

This has triggered a series of import tariffs on China

have strained over time with US administrations

so as to reduce the US trade deficit and give a boost

in WTO.

CURRENT SCENARIO

surplus with US began during Obama’s reign when

developing nations especially China has been

alleging unfair trade practices from China’s side and to domestic industries thereby generating many anti-dumping cases being filed against China employment.

The scepticism against China’s burgeoning trade

The move by US to impose high import tariffs on

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answered with a fierce retaliation from China, India,

Higher tariffs from US would shift China’s focus to

While US imposed 25% tariff on 1333 Chinese goods,

significantly higher leading to Chinese goods

Mexico etc.

in retaliation China imposed 25% import tariff on 106 imports from US, China also imposed tariffs on

products like soybean, whisky, orange juice hurting

other countries where cost of productions are flooding those markets and in turn destroying domestic players in the markets.

trade prospects with Us as 60% of US soybean

But not all is bad for India. The silver lining is that if

China is expected to be around $50 billion.

from the trade war by filling in the lacunae created by

exports are to China. The total tariff collection for Post this, another $3 billion worth of goods were

taxed by China which led to Trump requesting the US Trade Representative to tax another $100 billion worth of goods from China.

While the trade war has kept world wondering as to how things would turn out eventually, Trump’s decision to battle it out single handily has undermined the position of World Trade

Organisation and the international world trade order.

WHAT IS IN STORE FOR INDIA?

India would not be impacted directly as the trade of US with India in aluminium and steel is less but indirectly India would be impacted.

Higher costs of imported goods would increase

inflation in US which would then translate into higher interest rates leading to outflow of capital from

developing countries like India. Moreover, it would also lead to overheating of the US economy that is

sign of another impeding bubble. Also, higher cost of US imports would also lead to inflation in India as India imports most of the essential commodities from US.

Not just that, while only 3% of US steel is sourced from China, the other 97% is dumped into

developing nations and the European Nation against which many countries have complained and also

imposed anti-dumping duties. But now, higher tariffs in US means even the remaining would be flooding the domestic markets of developing countries.

India plays its cards well it can benefit immensely restricted US imports in Chinese economy. The

products where US exports to China overlap with

Indian exports are of particular interest. For instance, fresh grapes, cotton linters, flue-cured tobacco,

lubricants and chemicals such as benzene, are a few lines where the value of US exports to China are

pegged at above $10 million. The other factor making Indian exports competitive is the fact that tariffs on imports from Most Favoured Nations ( MFN)

economies are subjected to lesser tariffs ( around 510%) and India has been granted additionally 6-35% duty concessions on the MFN under the Asia Pacific

Trade Agreement, which makes Indian exports all the more competitive at present. Also, it is a golden

opportunity for India to reduce its trade deficit that

totalled to around 4 lakh crore last fiscal and increase its share in total world trade beyond abysmally low 2%.

A classic example is of rapeseed exporters. Indian

exports of rapeseed, a key ingredient in animal food, were banned by China in 2011-12 due to

contamination issues. China then started importing from US which was a major revenue generating

commodity for US. Now, imposition of steep tariffs

on US imports has given India an opportunity to en-

cash on this trade war. For this Ministry of Commerce has convinced China officials to lift ban on Indian

rapeseed exports without any fears of contamination and has ensured an assured quality of the exports

that would meet their quality parameters. This would give a huge boost to Indian exports.

6

BANKING SECTOR IN INDIA- CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES Rudra Banerjee KJ SIMSR According to a neoteric survey of BCG, India is

Challenges Faced by the Indian Banking Sector

Sector across the Globe by 2025, after China and

So, it is cardinal that this sector remains salubrious

going to become the 3rd largest Domestic Banking USA. It also says that collaborated assets of ‘E7’

emerging economies (India, China, Russia, Mexico,

Brazil, Indonesia, and Turkey) will transcend that of ‘G-7’ (Japan, US, Germany, the UK, France, Italy, and Canada).

A bank is considered as the pillar of any economy.

or else it may lead to a financial crisis similar to the

US in 2007-08. However, the Indian Banking Sector is facing different sorts of predicament which is affecting its profitability and financial stability. a. Asset Quality:

One of the biggest menace to the Indian Bank is bad loans. Bank’s total stressed loan aggregates more

than ₹12.47 trillion. RBI, in its bi-annually Financial

Stability Report (FSR), released on June 30, though

sound optimistic where they said that credit picked up in 2017-18 despite sluggish deposit rate but it seems bank’s Gross Non-Performing

Advances(GNPA) ratio worsening from 11.6% in March 2018 to 12.2% in March 2019.

The Indian Banking Sector is embraced with 27 PSU banks, 21 Private Sector Banks, 49 Foreign Banks, 56 Regional Rural Banks, 1562 Urban Cooperative Banks, 94,384 rural cooperative banks, 6 Payment Banks, and 10 Small Finance Banks. According to RBI, India’s banking sector is one of the well-

regulated and decently capitalized in the world.

b. Capital Adequacy

One way the Indian banks trying to entrench that it is protected from bad loans is by setting aside

money as a 'provision'. This money cannot be used

for any other objective including lending. So, banks have minimal capital available to employ for its

diverse operations. The Capital Adequacy Ratio

gauges how much capital a bank has. So, a fall in

CAR (often called as CRAR or Capital to Risk Assets Ratio) is vexatious. The public sector banks (PSBs) in India are fugitive of the stipulated capital

requirements under Basel III. Media reports suggest that the Indian PSBs need ₹2.4 lakh crore capital by 2019 to meet the norms. This will be a humungous task for the banks, more so because of a large

number of bad loans on their books - the aggregate bad loans on the 40 listed banks in India amount to ₹3 lakh crore. According to reckons, the PSBs will need to raise tier 1 capital of ₹1,72,000-2,10,000

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crore during FY17-FY19 to meet the exorbitant

Opportunities in the Indian Banking Sector

fund growth.

Indian Banking sector but Indian Bank has still

regulatory minimum capital requirements as well as

c. Unhedged forex exposure

Despite the copious number of challenges in the looked inherently attractive. They are as follows:

RBI Deputy Governor S.S.Mundra in his speech

a. Macroeconomic Parameters

market have the potential to inflict significant stress

attracting opportunities globally because of

mentioned that "The wild gyrations in the forex

in the books of Indian companies who have heavily borrowed abroad". This stress can affect their

propensity to payback debt to Indian banks. As a result, the RBI wants banks to corroborate

companies they lend to do not unveil themselves to

The Indian Banking Sector is one of the most multifarious demographic, macroeconomic, and technological developments. India’s GDP rate is

continuously outperforming the GDP rate of other advanced and emerging economies.

unnecessary debt in dollars.

d. Employee and technology

Recently, PSBs are observing more-experienced employees retiring and younger employees are

replacing them. Though, it’s happening at junior

levels but creating a virtual vacuum at the middle and senior-level. The Deputy Governor of RBI said, "The absence of middle management could lead to a pernicious impact on banks' decision-making

process as this segment of officers played a critical role in translating the top management's strategy into workable action plans,". Also, Indian banks especially government-owned banks - need to

espouse technology to purvey better products which will make banks more coherent. e. Balance Sheet Management

In the last few years, multitudinous banks have tried

b. Blooming of technology in Indian Banking Sector All PSBs are now on CBS platform, developed

capabilities to offer anywhere banking and most of

them also started offering basic banking transactions on mobile for their customers.

to impede setting aside money as provisions (for future bad loans). One rationale for this is that a

bank's chief executives have a short tenure, during

which time they want to post exorbitant net profits

and cheer investors. S.S.Mundra in his speech said, "It must be appreciated that CEOs/ CMDs would

Blockchain and AI have created a significant impact

entities. The only thing which can commemorate

also embraced by our banks. Banks use this

sheet". Deferring provisioning is malefic in the long

markets and also to perform cross-border assets

financial pressures.

simultaneously. Infosys recently has developed a

come and go but the institutions are perpetual

on the recent technological development which was

their existence is a stronger and healthier balance

technology to remove the entry barriers in emerging

term which reduces the bank's ability to withstand

transfer and verify each transaction made

Blockchain based document-tracking system for

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trade finance. It also trying to implement the solution with 7 Private Sectors Banks of India – Axis Bank,

ICICI Bank, IndusInd Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, RBL Bank, South Indian Bank, and Yes Bank.

c. Healthy Pace of Indian Banks

During FY07-18, credit off-take and deposits grew at a CAGR of 10.99% and 11.66% respectively. As of Q1 FY19, total credit extended surged to ₹86,976.02 billion ($1,297.38 billion) and Deposits stood at ₹115,070.27 billion ($1,716.44 billion).

Conclusion

The Indian Banking System is coined as the crisisproof banking sector after it has single-handily counter the spill-over of 2008 Subprime Crisis

following the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Though, recent issues regarding amelioration of GNPA,

corruption, etc. but with the above opportunities still prevailing can counter those deftly.

9

PARADOX OF GIG ECONOMY Yash Agarwal FORE School of Management gathering, the better for the other. Two-sided labor markets also make it easier for economic activity to be organized according to price rather than the boundaries of firms.

Drivers, legal advisors, accountants, cleaners etc.

can list themselves on the web, with descriptions of their experience and availability, and the amount

they charge. As more and more individuals sign up, the platform becomes better and efficient.

Customers that want their work done can easily find the expertise that they are looking for, without Dream of a world without Ola, Uber, Swiggy,

making a permanent hire.

too. We have become too dependent on them.

This mechanism has sparked a new debate. For

huge changes and disruptions.

obvious being that finding work has never been

Jobs have not increased in tandem with the increase

away, someone looking for work on a big platform

UrbanClap, Foodpanda etc. I know we do not want Gig economy is here to stay, bringing with it some

workers, there are many advantages. The most

easier. With many potential customers just a click

in population and have increasingly become hard to

like UrbanClap or Uber can usually find it.

working has emerged, also known as the ‘Gig

Another benefit is the flexibility of gigging, which is

In this kind of business, organizations hire

the disabled or the elderly. They see it as a useful

operate for the company on a non-permanent

earnings from a first job. It is also very beneficial to

get by in present times. Therefore, a new way of economy’.

especially useful for people with children, and for

contingent workers, provisional employees who

stopgap between jobs, or a way to increase up low

basis.

employers who want to fulfil their short-term

In the 20th century, a standard type of worker in the

example, in India, Amazon and Flipkart (owned by

economist, Ronald Coase, argued that this was

at least 120,000 new temporary jobs to cope with

employees work throughout the day than to

The gig economy additionally makes paid work that

market for every task that was to be completed. As

to increase demand for private-hire transport rather

following orders, employees got secure and

altogether. Also for example, in Australia Airtasker

However, the Gig economy topples this

spiders, work that individuals used to do

markets”, which cater to two gatherings—workers

situations where there is little work on the offer of

needs, such as seasonal requirements. For

advanced economy was a full-time employee. An

Walmart) for the festive season of Diwali will create

essential, and it was better for firms to have

the expected e-commerce demand surge.

arrange and authorize a new contract on the open

would not generally exist. Ride-hailing firms seem

an end-result of coming to work every day and

than compelling regular taxis out of the business

predictable pay.

is loaded up with requests for help with removing

conventional model. It depends on “two-sided

themselves. That makes gigging a boon in

and customers. The more there is of each

the traditional sort.

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gig firms reject the responsibilities of employers,

they want the workers to act like regular employees.

If by any chance, the courts decide that vast swathes

of gig workers are in fact employees that would raise costs, slaughtering innovation and affecting jobs.

However, inaction brings dangers as well. If a

growing majority of the workforce has to manage

with poor pay and almost no pensions, governments will eventually have to do something.

But that is not the complete picture. For low-skilled workers with very less bargaining power, the gig

economy has a major downside. The drawback is the way diverse types of labourers are treated in law.

Gig-economy companies portray themselves as

mediators in the two-sided market of workers and jobs, dismissing any thought that they are

employers. Essentially meaning that workers are self-employed. However, that is not the case.

Workers are required to conform to high standards.

They are asked to wear uniforms, maintain a proper

rating (usually in case of ride-hailing apps) or else be kicked off the organization. Therefore, even when Â

The problem needs to be solved. Organizations can avoid the clash with courts by voluntarily offering

health insurance and other benefits to their workers.

In addition, competition between gig firms also

helps. With many food delivery firms in India, riders are poised to get better pay and benefits. Another

way is to make it easier for aggrieved workers to use the judicial system by reducing the barriers workers have in the first place. Moreover, to increase the

bargaining power of workers, giggers can he helped to organize themselves in cohorts.

These steps along with others would be essential to

ensure that the Gig economy lives up to its potential promise.

11

WHY INDIAN BANKING SECTOR IS UNDER CRITICISM -A STUDY FROM THE MODERN MONETARY THEORY PERSPECTIVE Devrup Banerjee Great Lakes Institute of Management, Gurgaon Before discussing this seemingly tough question,

everyone is losing their mind.

view.

Reserve Bank of India,

let us look at the problem from a basic point of

Most people, who are not familiar with the day to day workings of the economy, are still in some

amount of confusion regarding the workings of the mystifying thing called “currency”. An event

To quote N. S. Vishwanathan, Deputy Governor, “NPAs went up from 4.62% in 2014-15 to 7.79% in

2015-16, and were as high as 10.41% by December 2017.”

insignificant to most changed our lives forever, in

HOW CAN THIS SITUATION BE MADE BETTER?

suspended the convertibility of US dollars into

economy. With a system like fiat currency, which

1971, when then US president, Richard Nixon, gold. Thus the system of fixed exchange rate

followed by countries like India, was gone in a poof.

What this essentially meant was, the currency had

no more value than just a piece of paper. What gave it value was fact that all government taxes were to

be paid using this particular piece of paper and not

any other. To extend it further, what this meant was, government can never run out of money.

Indian banks can be regarded as a victim of this

ever-growing economic bubble of a system called fiat economy. Unlike the popular belief, Banks

started giving out loans first, and then they looked

at their reserves of deposits. They believed they can pick up money from market at any given time, and

started treating loans as a working asset. Thus any chances of making the money work (read loans), they pounced on it. Slowly, most of these loans,

given out by incompetent professionals, against

very little to no collateral, with poor auditing (read

Let’s face it, we as a country have failed our

has nothing backing the paper if it fails, everyone should have been more careful than just

concentrating on printing and creating currencies by giving out loans(oh yes, money is created by banks when they give out loans, but that’s for another day).

The following can be the potential solutions.

1. Increasing the CRR rates to inhibit the power of

money creation by banks and thus giving out loans.

2. Introduction of a new framework, which helps in identifying stressed assets as NPA’s much faster than before.

3. Integrate most transactions so that it takes place through Central banking system (CBS) including a SWIFT transaction, so that auditors can easily detect fraud.

4. Government injection in the ailing PSB’s. Let’s

face it, this is India, here nothing happens without a hand out from the people’s money!

NIRAV MODI), caused them to convert into

Can the problem be resolved if we revert back to

assets didn’t come suddenly from thin air. It has

This is the so called twilight zone of the modern

stressed assets. It’s to be noted here, stressed

been growing up inside our economy like a cancer, but the recognition of stressed assets into NPA’s was deliberately hindered to keep the books

clean.A series of RBI regulations, namely AQR,

CRILC from February 2014 resulted in the sudden recognition of all these stressed assets as NPA’s which ultimately brings us to present where

Gold standard backed currency?

economic system with both positive and negative

implications possible for this question. For starters, the amount of money floating in the open market i.e. the liquidity, could be somewhat reigned in, which can have a direct impact on the rates of

giving out loans. Now if loans start to come at a

premium, banks will start scrutinizing each and

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every application even more resulting in fewer

even more dependent on loans as their main

general public to get hold of loans. Gold standard

one of banks giving out rash loans. As we can see,

errors. But this will also make it difficult for the

currency will make bank constrained on its monetary

reserves. This is a fact. But weather this will be for the good or worse can be only said after conducting

proper research and hypothesis testing. On the other hand, currently a large chunk of government income comes from investing in government bonds. Once gold-standard based currency system kicks in,

governments will also be more cautious about their spending and actually try to run down the fiscal

source of income. Hence we will be back to square this is indeed a complicated problem which might or might not have a simple solution as just

changing the economic system that we follow. All debates and perspective aside, if we stop having blind faith in our economic and banking system

and start analyzing each and every thing a bit more carefully, our future generations can have a much better system to “bank” upon!

deficit. If this happens, as was the case with

“Don’t work your money, make it work for you”

issuance of bonds from government to raise money

“Bankers, sometimes, also let your money

Australian government in between 1996 to 2007, the

will decrease significantly resulting in banks getting

By Robert Kiyosaki breathe”

13

DO YOU KNOW MR. ALPHA? Parag Nawani IIM Rohtak Mr. Alpha has been called the “holy grail” of

value of this ratio is considered better than that with

personalities for investors of all sorts (fund

the change in overall risk-return characteristics

investing. He is one of the most sought-after managers, institutional investors, etc.). Each of

them hopes that Mr. Alpha would become bigger for them. But Mr. Alpha is very unpredictable. He

surprises them by sometimes becoming too large,

and at times, too small. In this article, I have tried to give my readers an insight into Mr. Alpha’s life.

Alpha is one of the five popular technical risk ratios.

The others are beta, standard deviation, R-squared and the Sharpe ratio. It is the extra returns that a

particular stock/portfolio has been able to gain as

compared to that of a benchmark. It is also referred to as excess return or abnormal rate of return.

Often, alpha is associated with beta, which is a

measure of the systematic market risk. Alpha is

considered an important measure to compare the performance of various stocks while investing.

Below are some of the concepts which are closely related to alpha.

CAPM model

The CAPM model provides the cost of equity for a particular stock. It is the expected return of the stock, based on beta, the proxy for systematic

market risk. It is calculated as the sum of risk-free rate and the beta-factor of market risk premium.

Jensen’s alpha is calculated as the difference of this expected return and the actual return of the stock.

It was first used by Michael Jensen in 1968 as a measure in the evaluation of mutual fund

managers. It is different from the normal alpha in

a lower value. The Sharpe ratio is used to compare

whenever a new asset or asset class is added to the portfolio.

Index model

The model has been established by William Sharpe in 1963. The single-index model is an application of alpha, in which the expected returns of a stock is calculated. As per this model, the return of any stock can be divided into the expected excess

return of the individual stock due to firm-specific

factors, usually denoted by its alpha, the return due to macroeconomic events that move the market,

and the unexpected events that affect only the firm.

This model is useful in assessing the performance of various stocks.

Brinson Attribution

Hedge funds measure their performance by

analyzing their funds’ extra returns as compared to the benchmark. This performance attribution is

divided into three parts, which is known as Brinson attribution. The 1st part is Asset Allocation effects,

means the difference coming due to the allocation

of capital in the same sectors as the benchmark, but having different weights. Here we consider that the hedge fund has allocated all its capital only in the benchmark’s sectors. The 2nd part is Stock

Selection effects, which measures the difference coming due to stock-picking skills in the benchmark’s sectors.

the sense that it takes CAPM return of stock instead of the market returns.

Sharpe ratio

Sharpe ratio is a useful indicator to compare various portfolios by their excess returns and their

respective standard deviations (which is a measure of the overall market risk). This is calculated as the alpha (here, risk free return is taken in place of

market returns) of a stock (or a portfolio) divided by its standard deviation. The portfolio with a higher

14

Here we consider that the weights of various sectors

These are some of the applications of alpha. I hope

the weightage of various stocks is different. These 2

interesting. He is an important personality in the

in both the fund and the benchmark are same, but parts form the explained part of performance

attribution of hedge funds. There is an unexplained part as well, which is known as Interaction effects,

which is due to the combined effects of previous 2 effects.

that all of you must have found Mr. Alpha quite

finance industry. There are many areas where his

applications are utilized, and critical decisions are taken on his advice. I advise you to read more

about him and get more surprised. Thanks for reading!

15

HOW CAN INDIA ACHIEVE FINANCIAL INCLUSION? Rohit Dudi IIM Lucknow As per The Committee on Financial Inclusion,

chaired by Dr. C. Rangarajan, Financial inclusion is defined as a process to ensure access to financial

Because of increase in formal banking avenues in rural areas, the situation has improved.

services and to provide timely and adequate credit as and when needed by most vulnerable groups

like low-income section and the weaker groups of the society at an affordable cost. Does not just

include only banking products but also includes other financial services like equity products and insurance.

Benefits:

1. It develops a great culture of savings among a very large segment of rural population.

2. It brings population of low-income groups in the perimeters of formal banking sector thus

protecting their financial wealth in exigent circumstances.

3. It reduces the chances of exploitation of

vulnerable sections by the dishonest money

lenders by providing easy access to formal credit.

As per NSSO 59th Round Survey results, 52% of

farmers in rural households are financially excluded from both formal banking sector. Of the total

farmers in rural households, only 30% have access to formal sources of credit. More than 75% of

farmer households have no or limited access to formal sources of credit. Problem of financial

exclusion is more severe in Central, North-Eastern and Easter regions.

But the situation has improved in last few years as shown in infographic below.

Financial Inclusion Initiatives planned and taken up:

1. All banks have been advised to open Basic Saving Bank Deposit (BSBD) accounts which come along

with minimum common facilities which include but not limited to no minimum balance, facility of providing ATM card, receipt/ credit of money

through electronic payment channels, deposit and withdrawal of cash at bank branch and ATMs. 2. Simplified and relaxed KYC norms so as to

facilitate opening of bank accounts easily and with

no minimum balance requirements. The condition

of introduction by existing customers has also been given away. UIDAI Aadhar Card can now be used

both as an identity proof and as an address proof.

3. Simplified Branch Authorization Policy is helping to address the serious issue of uneven spread of

bank branches. Domestic Scheduled Commercial

Banks (SCBs) have been given permission to open branches in tier 2 and below cities freely

4. There has been mandate of compulsory

requirement of opening of branches in un-banked villages. Moreover, banks have been directed for allocation of at least 25% of the total number of

branches in un-banked rural centers, which were to be opened during that year.

5. Initiative of opening intermediate brick and

mortar structure which will help in effective cash

management, close supervision of BC operations, redressal of customer grievances and documentation.

16

6. Public and private sector banks were asked to submit three-year Financial Inclusion Plan (FIP)

approved by board. RBI monitors these plans on a

10. Total number of bank outlets including the number of RRBs:

monthly basis. These FIPs must be disaggregated and should be percolated down up to individual branch level.

7. Financial Literacy Centers (FLCs) have come up.

They help in scaling up financial literacy efforts by

conducting outdoor Financial Literacy Camps at least once a month. 800+ FLCs have been set up providing literacy to a total of 2.5 million people through seminars and lectures, awareness camps or Choupals.

11. Issuing Kisan Credit Cards (KCC): Banks are

improving financial inclusion plans and efforts are

meet their credit requirements. More than 40

8. Innovative business models are aimed at further being put in to look closely into processing of

applications for banking licenses. FIP is now an

important criterion for getting new bank licenses as

issuing KCCs to small rural farmers so that they can million KCCs have been issued so far with an outstanding credit of Rs. 3000 billion.

suggested by Dr. D Subbarao.

9. It is due to honest and concerted efforts since 2005

by RBI which has led to the increase in number of branches of Scheduled Commercial Banks which

have increased multiple times. As a comparison with rural areas, the number of bank branches in semiurban areas have increased more rapidly.

12. Issuing General Credit Cards (GCC): Banks have introduced General Credit Card facility for an

amount up to Rs. 25000 at rural and semi-urban branches. Close to 4 million GCCs have been

issued with the credit amount amounting to Rs. 80 billion.

13. Through BCs, ICT Based Accounts: To provide

cost-effective and efficient banking services in the

un-banked and remote corners of the country, RBI has directed all commercial banks to provide banking services based on ICT, through BCs.

17

for promotiob of financial inclusion in rural areas.

Bank credit to MSME sector has increased at a CAGR of 33%.

14. ATM Network Expansion: Number of ATMs in

rural part of India has witnessed a CAGR of 35%. The number has increased from 5500 to 13000. Financial

stability, Financial inclusion and financial education

are three important elements of an integral strategy.

Financial inclusion works from the supply side by providing access to different financial services,

financial education works from the demand side for

promoting awareness among the citizens about the benefits and needs of financial services which are offered by banks and other financial institutions.

18. Insurance Penetration in India: The total life and non-life insurance penetration in terms of the ratio

of insurance premium as a percentage of total GDP has increased from 2.32 to 5.10 in last one decade.

There is a huge untapped potential as when it comes to insurance penetration.

19. Financial Inclusion Initiatives as taken up by

Private Corporates: Projects such as E- Sagar/ E-

Choupal(ITC), Project Shakti (HUL), Haryali Kisan Bazaar (DCM) etc. These are pioneering projects

that have brought a huge improvement in the lives

of the people who participate and prepare the base for economic development.

20. Ensuring that agents are “transaction ready” is very important. The success relies on the 15. SHG-Bank Linkage Growth: Helps in bringing many people under the umbrella of sustainable development in a very cost-effective manner

within a short period of time. As per NABARD,

Status of Microfinance in India, 8.5 million saving linked SHGs having a total aggregate savings of Rs.80 billion.

16. MFIs growing: RBI is following the bank-led

model in order to achieve financial inclusion. Many NBFCs are supplementing efforts for financial inclusion at ground level. Micro credit is

recognized as a separate category under NBFCs named as NBFC-MFIs.

17. Bank Credit to MSME sector: The sector has a

large employment potential of 65 million persons over 28 million Organizations and is rightly

considered as an engine for economic growth and

innovative model of usage of small corner stores which can act as agents for banks where people

can have option to deposit and withdraw money directly from their accounts and do other transactions.

21. Building of a trust environment and an

acceptance network is required: Every account

holder will be getting their debit cards in the mail.

Acceptance network for such cards is virtually nonexistent. We can solve this problem to develop the network quickly and India can partner with global players to make that happen.

22. Emphasizing on usage of mobile: Bigger efforts can be made to use mobile channels as catalysts for financial inclusion. India is way behind other nations when it comes to leveraging mobile channels to the fullest. The Intermedia

Financial Inclusion Insight (FII) Survey suggests

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that only 0.3% of the Indian adults use mobile

shifting all payment flows from cash mode to

nations.

billion in international remittances. These flows

money, way less than many African and small Asian 23. Leveraging payment banks: Allowing the

Payments Banks to process different government

payments will break the monopoly of public sector banks and will be a boon for the customers.

24. Enabling Regulation: In June, RBI need to ease the regulations so that even start-up banks and other small banks can come up to help in financial

inclusion in India by providing banking services to un-banked areas.

25. Government Usage of New Payment Channels for subsidies: India is home to USD 70 billion worth of

retail subsidies and social programs. Government is switching to targeted benefit payment from its

older way of providing generalized subsidies thus,

digital channels. India is estimated to have USD 70 can very well contribute towards the economic

viability of banking channels which are new and expanded.

26. Creating an infrastructure which can handle

every aspect of banking service such a very large

segment of the Indian population. Many solutions can be BBPS, NeSL BHIM, UPI. A Financially Inclusive India

India’s financial inclusion program has sparked an interest in other countries who seek to overcome

similar kind of challenges. If India’s program can go beyond the initial sprint towards meaningful financial inclusion, it can actually be a useful example for other nations to follow.

19

INTEGRATION OF FINANCE AND TECHNOLOGY Prashant Nair TAPMI, Manipal Traditional banks and insurers have spent many

Aadhaar.

safeguard their money and provide 24x7 year-round

Financial technology is used to automate

years building customer bases who trust them to

real-time services. They focused on geographical expansion by opening up branches to target new

customer segments and to increase their customer base. With the growth of internet, they offered various avenues to these customers to make

electronic payments using internet banking. But today they find themselves surrounded by

innovators seeking to disrupt their businesses by developing new business models such as

crowdfunding, peer-to-peer lending, mobile

payments, payment in cryptocurrency, robo-

advisers, etc. there seems to be no end to the diversity of these “fintech” innovators.

FinTech is the new applications, processes,

products, or business models in the financial services industry, composed of one or more

complementary financial services and provided as an end-to-end process via the Internet. It

comprises of companies that use technology to make financial services more efficient. These

organizations are typically startups that challenge

Fintech apps

insurance, trading, and risk management. A decade back, Indian banking sector also rode on the wave of the dot-com bubble and introduced the use of internet banking for e-payments. Further, these

facilities were further developed into Net Electronic Fund Transfer (NEFT) and Real Time Gross

Settlement System (RTGS), which facilitated faster and secured online payments but involved a

transaction fee and often processed transactions in batches or only during the working hours of bank.

This paved the way for various fintech companies like Google Pay (Tez), Paytm, etc. to develop technologies which offered a faster, secure,

transparent, affordable and 24x7 payment solution.

They also aggressively marketed their products by offering incentives like cashbacks, cash incentives on referrals, etc. The popularity of these apps has prodded companies to develop their own apps

which are user friendly, and which facilitate secure and faster payments.

traditional corporations that are less reliant on

Cryptocurrency

social networking, mobility, emerging payment

based on Blockchain technology. Encrypted blocks

software. They leverage on technologies such as solutions, cloud computing, location-based

services, radio-frequency identification (RFID),

voice recognition, enterprise content management and customer relationship management (CRM) to

develop an engaging and effective banking solution for meeting customer demands.

The characteristics of today’s Fintech companies: deploying highly focused products and services, automating and commoditizing high-margin

processes, and using data strategically. Fintech

companies provide two key features: better use of data and frictionless customer experience. But

there is also a risk of data being prone to misuse and hacking. The various technologies used by

companies are: Fintech apps, Cryptocurrency, and

Cryptocurrency is a digital/electronic currency

of data are accepted as currency or as a monetary

unit. The creation of units and verification of funds transfer is done with the help of advanced

encryption techniques. The Blockchain is a

distributed ledger where there is a timestamp on each block and the batches of individual

transactions are held with a link to a previous block thereby ensuring continuity in transaction records.

The prime focus is on payment settlements, trade finance, and reconciliation. Banking systems are prone to cyber-attacks since they are built on a centralized database which makes it more

vulnerable to data theft and misuse. Therefore,

blockchain’s potential to reduce the fraud in the financial sector is gaining a lot of attention.

20

Aadhaar

Aadhaar is a 12-digit unique identification number

issued by the Indian government to every individual resident of India. It also serves as a “Know Your

Customer” (KYC) document, through which all the details of the individual such as Pan card number,

bank account details, etc. are linked. The Supreme Court in its judgement opined that 'Aadhaar' has

become a symbol of a digital economy and opened up multiple avenues for a common man. The court has

declared Aadhaar constitutionally valid which can be used for subsidies and government schemes so that there is no leakage of government funds. It can be

used to prevent tax evasion and to curb black money.

The KYC intends to avoid identity duplication, reduce money laundering and other criminal activities by giving banks a means to identify their customers.

Aadhar has found to be a fruitful project as it has made it easier for companies like insurance in faster

settlement of claims. It has also enabled the Income Tax Department to track income tax defaulters and bring them to the books. Under the Direct Benefit

Transfer (DBT) scheme of the Indian government, the

beneficiaries who have Aadhar are entitled to subsidy benefits. Since, Aadhar prevents duplication, the chances of bogus or excess outflow of funds is

minimized. In this dynamic environment, continuous changing demand of the customers and compliance

with regulatory laws have forced businesses to keep

pace with technology. But, every solution has its cons: One, hacking expertise of hackers is

improving significantly and this poses a challenge

to the organizations security systems. Two, due to fintech apps, number of customers who availed

internet banking services from banks has declined resulting in a decline in additional income. Three, banks costs on developing new apps and

compliance with new rules has increased the costs, which affects the bottom line performance of the companies.

With the development of new technologies, the

government’s aim to promote digital transactions

had a widespread impact on the people. There has

been a humongous rise in mobile transactions over the years, but still there are any areas in the nation where payment mechanisms are cash dominated.

Further, there has been a threat of leakage of

customers personal data as well. The provisions of the Information Technology Act should be

complied with to ensure that data is safe and used for genuine purposes. Use of technologies like

blockchains not only have the potential to reduce the cost of transacting but also have the potential to reduce duplication in a financial system. With

proper data privacy and data protection laws, and with the latest technology, the dream of going Digital looks nearer to fruition.

21

CONSOLIDATION IN THE INDIAN BANKING SECTOR Deepak Rawtani KJ SIMSR management could be the sign of things to come.

Now let’s start with a brief introduction of the

Indian banking sector. Regarded as one of the

strongest and biggest banking sectors in the world, its mantle was proved when it absorbed the global financial shock of 2008. A total of 27 Public sector

banks, 26 Private banks, 56 Regional Rural Banks, 46 Foreign banks and 6 payment banks including the Hope, you all are able to guess why the 3 banks

world’s largest bank by asset i.e. Industrial and

For those who are clueless, let me help you. The

and size of banking industry. This sector, serving

Bank of Baroda, Dena Bank and, Vijaya Bank to create

sector banks, having roughly 70% of the market

PNB. This gamble of government with the aim of

assets while HDFC is the largest private bank by

mentioned in the above picture are in news right now!

commercial bank of China proves the sheer might

Government of India (GOI) has decided to merge

125 crore Indians, is majorly dominated by public

India’s 3rd largest banking Behemoth after SBI and

share. State bank of India is the largest PSU bank by

ensuring the stability of operations and credit risk

assets.

22

Talks on consolidation in Indian banking have been

going on for almost two decades but this has gathered stream under the present government as the

government wants to limit the number of PSU banks

to 10-12. Consolidation and mergers have taken place earlier. Ratnakar Bank Ltd and Sri Krishna Bank Ltd

merged with Canara Bank, New Bank of India merged with Punjab National Bank, Vyasa Bank became ING Vyasa and now have been merged with Kotak

Mahindra Bank. Also, the merger of State bank of India in 2017 with its 5 associates namely State Bank of

Bikaner and Jaipur (SBBJ), State Bank of Mysore (SBM), State Bank of Travancore (SBT), State Bank of

Hyderabad (SBH) and State Bank of Patiala (SBP) and Bhartiya Mahila Bank was a way forward in this direction.

Advantages of consolidation of banks

• Smaller banks like Dena bank are running on

limited/weak capital and equity. The government

fears that they won’t be able to survive any financial

shock or crisis if it were to happen. Thus, their merger with larger banks is the way forward.

• Secondly, the issue of NPAs, the term which is

haunting the government and RBI. Bad loans in PSBs

have resulted in higher provisions and deterioration in asset quality, thus lowering the earnings for banks.

Many small banks have a high percentage of gross

NPAs (NPAs as a percent of total commercial loans given). They don’t have enough resources,

management, infrastructure etc. in order to recover

their NPAs. Thus, consolidation with a large bank will save them from getting collapsed which the government fears.

• Another issue is the competition the PSU banks

are facing from their private counterparts. Except

for SBI none of other PSBs is large enough to have a competitive advantage compared to private

banks. Consolidation will support the state-owned banks in exceeding private banks in deposit growth.

• Consolidation will also scale the banks more

efficiently, not just in terms of efficiency ratio, but

also in terms of banking operations. Every bank has its infrastructure in place for risk management,

compliance, operations, accounting and IT – and

now that two banks have become one single entity, it would result in ease of efficiently administering those operational infrastructures.

• Bank mergers and acquisitions will help the banks to fill product or technology gaps. And, from the

technology angle, acquisition of a small bank by a larger bank might allow the smaller bank to

upgrade its technology platform significantly. Also, a bank merger helps a bank to scale up quickly and gain a large number of new customers instantly.

Not only does an acquisition give the bank more

capital to work with when it comes to lending and investments, but it also provides a broader geographic footprint to operate.

• Also, every bank benefits from a merger or

acquisition because of the increase in talent. An

acquisition presents the opportunity of expanding your sales team or strengthening the team of top

managers/executives. Though this may not reflect on the balance sheet but the HR factor is a very important factor that cannot be ignored.

Disadvantages of consolidation of banks

• The problem with the banking system of India is corporate governance, structural issues, the

absence of debt recovering mechanism etc. Until and unless these issues are not resolved the

banking system will be plagued by inefficiencies.

The absence of Asset reconstruction companies

23

(ARCs) from debt recovering mechanism is the example of one such problem.

• Also, there is a likelihood of a large scale irregularity escaping the immediate notice of RBI.

• The Merger could result in unemployment situations as a merger means less or negligible recruitment.

Also, it could prompt employees to take VRS

especially those who are greater than 50 years of age.

This, could lead to loss of talented and experienced personnel at Middle and senior level management.

• The Merger could result in a clash of organizational cultures and affect regional focus; creating regional

financial disparities.

• The weaknesses of the small banks may get transferred to the bigger bank also.

Conclusion

Considering the above facts, though the

consolidation of PSU banks has many positives but

this government’s gamble would not be successful until and unless the major issues of corporate

governance, structural issues of banks and other loopholes are solved. Also, with the role of

employee satisfaction gaining ground these days, consolidation could backfire until all the

stakeholders right from an employee to an investor are be taken into confidence.

24

CHANGE IN INVESTOR SENTIMENT- MAJOR RECENT ECONOMIC EVENTS Yash Jalan IIM Rohtak • IL&FS crisis – Infrastructure Leasing and Financial Services is in the business of providing long-term lending for infrastructure projects such as roads,

was exacerbated by little effort taken by the RBI to correct the plummeting rupee.

railways, metros, etc. The lending is done on a long-

• Ascending oil prices - Oil has been rallying as

the money that they raise for providing this lending is

November 4, debilitate worldwide supply.

term basis which goes up to 20-30 years. However, usually on a short-term basis. The company is

saddled with a debt of Rs. 91,000 crore and faces a severe liquidity crunch. It was unable to meet its payment obligations of bank loans (including

interest), term and short-term deposits as well as

commercial paper redemptions. This caused a panic

among the equity investors and the stock market fell drastically.

• OMCs need not subsidise petrol and diesel further – The government clarified that the Re. 1 absorption

was a one-time thing and it did not have any intention

stresses over Iran sanctions, which kick in on

Worldwide unrefined petroleum benchmark Brent yesterday hit a four-year high of $86.74 a barrel.

Given that India is the world's third-biggest oil

buyer, and intensely reliant on imports to boot, this is the greatest danger to the local economy. Market

reacted strongly to the upward movement of the oil prices. It is a concern as it not only raises the

demand for dollars by importers, which would

affect the already widening current account deficit, but also raises distress about inflation in the domestic economy.

to ask the OMCs to do that again. Owing to the

• Outflow of foreign capital – Foreign investors

by as much as 19% intra-day. Earlier, the government

markets on concerns over depreciating rupee,

government’s clarification, the shares of OMCs rose

had cut excise duty on petrol and diesel by Rs. 1.5 and had asked the OMCs to subsidise the two oils by

another Re. 1 per litre. Back then, the shares of these companies had fallen drastically.

• Descending rupee – Indian currency breached the 74 mark in October and continued to depreciate against the dollar. This weighed intensely on the investor

sentiment. However, the dollar has gotten stronger

as a result of an increase in the Treasury yields. This

withdrew more than $5 billion from the capital

global trade wars and ascending crude prices. The latest outflow is higher than $3 billion net

withdrawals seen in the preceding month. Before that, overseas investors had invested around $1

billion in the capital markets in July-August. The

outflow of funds from the Indian market causes a downward trend in the value of rupee because there is more demand for dollars from foreign

investors after quitting the Indian market. This, in turn, impacts market sentiment.

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