LOCAL STORIES

Will we see record snowfalls in 2022?

By Warren Strybosch

The ski season started off with high expectations and predications are that 2022 would be the season for record snow falls. We saw Victoria’s ski fields covered in early-season snow that broke 22-year records but was that an early prediction of what is yet to come or just mother nature teasing us once again. A great ski season may still become a reality but so far, the season has been a mixed one, with high snow falls one week and then rain the next turning all the snow into mush.

As at time of writing this article, Falls Creek had 80 out of 90 trails open, Mt. Baw Baw Alpine Resort only had 2 out of 17 open, Mt. Buller had 14 out of 61 open, Mt. Hotham only had 63 of its 100 trails open.

Currently, most of the snow can be found at Mt. Buller. Personally, I am hoping that the best of the season is yet to come as I am heading up to Falls with the family in September.

“In terms of getting snow this early and before Queen’s Birthday, it has only happened twice in the last 50 years [on record].”

Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Matthew Thomas said the strong snowfalls were a result of a burst of cold air pushing over south-east Australia and high precipitation.

With Victorian ski resorts been hit hard over the past 2 years due to Covidrestrictions leading to shortened seasons,

Open

Dinner Plain

3 days ago

Falls Creek Alpine Resort

3 days ago

Mt. Baw Baw Alpine Resort

3 days ago

Mt. Buller

3 days ago

Mt. Hotham

3 days ago Snowfall Base Depth

1"

Jun 30

0"

Jul 08

4"

Jul 08

3"

Jul 08

3"

Jul 08

1-3"

Powder

24-29"

Machine Groomed

12-12"

Powder

19-19"

Packed Powder

20-29"

Wet Snow Open Trails Open Lifts

1/1 1/1

N.A. 3/14

2/17 3/7

14/61 18/22

63/100 10/13

many ski business operators are really hoping that this year will be a great year for their businesses and those who love going to the snow.

Many business owners are feeling optimistic for the remaining season.

If you happen to be up at Falls Creek and see a guy with a ‘Find’ cap on having a coffee, feel free to stop and have a chat. Happy skiing everyone.

Pilots pressured to fly while tired: union

By Liv Casben (Australian Associated Press)

Australian pilots are being pressured to fly while tired and work around “unstable” rosters, according to a union survey.

The survey by the newly-merged Transport Workers Union and Virgin Independent Pilots’ Association has highlighted concerns about job security after thousands of aviation workers were stood down earlier in the COVID-19 pandemic.

Of the 150 respondents from multiple companies, more than half said roster uncertainty was pressuring pilots to work while tired or unfit to fly. The vast majority expressed concerns about fatigue management and believed there was a growing trend towards insecure work.

Workers will meet in Perth on Tuesday for the official launch of the TWU’s pilots division after the merger was recently approved by the Fair Work Commission. “Bringing pilots into the TWU means all aviation workers benefit from the might of collectivism, from the ground and baggage room right through to the flight deck,” TWU national secretary Michael Kaine said. “The (survey) results show workers continue to bear the brunt of aviation’s peaks and troughs while profit-fanatic executives draw bonuses and exorbitant salaries.

“We need a commission to rebalance aviation, support good jobs, and ensure Australians can always rely on safe and secure skies.”

Rex pilots, represented by the Australian Federation of Air Pilots, last month voted to take protected industrial action after years-long wage negotiations stalled.

One respondent to the TWU survey said industry morale was at an “all-time low”, with the pandemic used as an excuse to erode wages and conditions.

“Very few pilots would view this as a sustainable career in the long term anymore,” another respondent said. “We have no job security, are asked to work more for less and have no control of our lives due to rostering practices.”

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Oh, the pain of interest rate rises

By Warren Strybosch

I don’t know about you, but we are feeling the pain of all these interest rate rises, and I am not sure anyone, except the RBA, knows when they are going to stop.

We were supposed to have had our renovations finished last year but it got pushed out to June and even now we continue to incur delays. This delay has resulted in us missing locking in our interest rate on the new home mortgage (currently the construction loan). We were supposed to have locked the rate in back in January for four years. So, not only has the renovations cost us more due to building supply constraints due to COVID, but we are now going to have to pay higher mortgage repayments over the next four years because of the unforeseen delays – we have missed the ‘fixed-rate’ boat.

Yes, I can hear the “pffts”, and “put your adult pants on” from all those who had mortgages throughout the 1980’s. With the 30-year fixed mortgage rate reaching a pinnacle of 18.4 percent in October 1981 and seesawing down to the 9 percent range by 1986 and closing the decade at 9.78 percent, you might have reason to think we still have it relatively easy.

But as my own children remind me when I start telling my war stories, ‘about when I was young’, that my life is not their life and that I need to have some consideration as to what they might be going through right now rather than being dismissive about it. So, hopefully all of you Baby Boomers, who have already paid off your mortgages, might be able to emphasize with those of us who still have one.

What is happening with interest rates?

On the 5th of July the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced at its monetary policy meeting an increase in the cash rate by 50 bps.

It marked the second 50-bp hike in a row and followed the 25-bp hike in May, taking the official cash rate to 1.35 per cent, up from 0.85 per cent.

The RBA board’s decision comes as inflation is expected to hit 7 per cent at a time when unemployment rates are low, household budgets are under pressure and global uncertainty remains.

In 1984...

• The average home cost was $64,039. • The average annual income was $19,188. • The average mortgage was $42,277.

In 2022...

• The average home costs $920,100. • The average annual income is $90,896. • The average mortgage is $618,722.

Deposits then and now

1984

• If the average home cost $64,039... • A 20% deposit equals $121,807.

2022

• If the average home cost $920,100... • A 20% deposit equals $184,020.

Governor Philip Lowe anticipates that Australia’s inflation will peak this year before declining back down towards 2-3 per cent, driven by an increasing interest rate environment.

Higher interest rates will also help establish a more sustainable balance between the demand for and the supply of goods and services,” he said.

Ironically, we are experiencing the same run-away inflation that occurred in the 1980’s due to high government spending, increased property prices and people still spending their money. As a result of increased inflation, interest rates continue to rise, and there is going to be a world of pain felt by a lot more people now compared to the pain that was felt in the 1980’s.

Australians now are experiencing it harder

The truth is that the average Australian is now purchasing homes that are worth way more than what they were worth in the 1980’s. In fact, the average Australian now is spending on average 10 times their annual earnings on their first home compared to the Boomers who paid 3.3 of their average annual earnings.

The average Australia in 1984 could buy a home that cost 3.3 times their annual income. In 2022, it's 10 times what the average person earns in a year. Let's take a trip back to the housing market of 1984 to see just how different buying a house was in the 80s versus today.

Australian home buyers today must save bigger deposits, borrow much more and face much larger repayments. This means more of their weekly income goes into housing costs today than in 1984.

Australian buyers in 2022 now have to save much bigger deposits.

Saving a deposit is one of the big challenges for home buyers in 2022. As prices have risen so much, the amount you have to save for a 20% deposit just keeps jumping up.

This is a stark contrast. In 1984, a 20% deposit was 66% of a year's income. Today, it's 202%.

It would take you just over 2 whole years' of income to save the same deposit.

(Source: finder.com.au)

Further hikes anticipated

Further rate hikes are anticipated, and it is likely we will see rates increase by at least another 50-bp before the end of the calendar year. Even Brokers are expecting more rates rises to come.

Commonwealth Games 2026

By Warren Strybosch

In April, the Commonwealth Games Federation announced Victoria as the host of the 2026 Commonwealth Games. It has since been decided that the opening ceremony will be held on March 17 2026 at the MCG, with the next 12 days being full of competition, culminating on the 29th.

The Commonwealth Games were last held in Melbourne in 2006 but have also been held on the Gold Coast (2018), Brisbane (1982), Perth (1962), and Sydney (1938). In a Commonwealth Games first however, the games will not be held in just one location, but instead will be showcased in four regional locations around Victoria – Geelong, Bendigo, Ballarat and Gippsland. This is a boon for these regions as they will receive a boost to their local economies with additional spending from the government in the lead up to the games. Community infrastructure will be improved and thousands of jobs will be created in the lead up to the games as well as during.

Hamilton, Canada, hosted the first Commonwealth Games in 1930 with just 11 Countries, 59 events (6 sports) and 400 athletes. For Melbourne in 2026 we can expect in excess of 70 countries, 280 events and 4500 athletes. Expressions of interest are currently open for the inclusion of additional sports. International sporting federations in conjunction with Australian sporting organisations have the opportunity to request that certain sports be included in the line-up. Depending on the outcome of this, other Victorian regional areas may have the opportunity to host some of these additional events. The cut-off date for these submissions is August 19, 2022.

Supply issues continue for vehicle market

Tim Dornin (Australian Associated Press)

Australia’s vehicle industry faces supply issues into the future with constraints on global manufacturing to blame for a near 10 per cent fall in sales last month.

The Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries says 99,974 cars and trucks were sold in June, down 9.7 per cent compared to the same month in 2021.

That left demand for the first half of 2022 at 537,858, a fall of 5.2 per cent.

FCAI chief executive Tony Weber said the fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic continued to hamper automotive manufacturing.

Combined with the war in Ukraine and shipping issues, the supply of new vehicles hitting Australia’s shores could not keep up with local demand. “Globally, car makers are continuing to suffer from plant shutdowns,” Mr Weber said.

“In Europe, we have component supply heavily impacted by the conflict in Ukraine.

“Microprocessors continue to be in short supply and global shipping remains unpredictable.”

“While demand for new cars remains strong in Australia, it is unlikely we will see supply chain issues resolved in the near future.”

Toyota led the market last month selling 22,561 vehicles ahead of Kia on 8480, Hyundai on 8259, Mazda with 6245 and Mitsubishi with 5846. The Toyota Hi-Lux was the most popular model with 7582 units sold ahead of Hyundai’s Tucson on 2840 and Ford’s Ranger with 2802.

With escalating petrol prices, sales of electric cars continued to rise.

The FCAI said 1137 were sold last month compared to 526 in the same month last year.

Year-to-date, sales were up by more than 300 per cent to 9680.

Tesla remained the dominant player in the electric car market with its Model 3 accounting for almost half of the vehicles sold so far this year.

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WARREN STRYBOSCH

Find Group

The founder of the Find Group of companies draws on his diverse background, which ranges form teaching, to serving in the army, to taxation and accounting, to coach and help clients live their best financial lives. A multiaward winner, Warren’s innovative approach in business means he was a champion of virtual financial advice long before the pandemic. Warren established the Find Foundation, which owns and operates across Victoria.

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