FEBRUARY 2024
£834,000
£1,257,784
-1.3%
£672
£36.1bn
15,706
MORTGAGE APPROVALS (DEC)
50,459
6.1%
25.6%
RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS (DEC)
80,420
-4.8%
-17.8%
GROSS MORTGAGE LENDING (DEC)
£17.2bn
-12.1%
-24.6%
62,688
2.7%
-8.7%
238,927
-
-8.6%
NEW HOMES BUILT (Q423) NEW HOMES BUILT (ANNUAL)
P R O M I S I N G S TA R T TO 2 0 24
The new year has got off to a promising start as falling mortgage rates and improving buyer confidence continue to support market momentum. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
FALLING MORTGAGE RATES
UK interest rates have been left unchanged at 5.25% for the fourth consecutive announcement, indicating that the Bank of England is keen to maintain current stability. The signs are that the interest rate has peaked and the next move will be a reduction, although that could be some months away. Forecasters at leading institutions have suggested that the inflation rate will halve to 2% by April (Oxford Economics, Investec and Deutsche Bank). Recent cuts to mortgage rates have led to rising confidence in the housing market. 85% of estate agents have noted improved buyer confidence in the past three months (Dataloft Poll of Subscribers) and consumer confidence levels are at their highest since January 2022 (GfK Consumer Confidence Tracker).
The latest Bank of England data shows that mortgage approvals have reached a six-month high, increasing to 50,500 in December. This third consecutive monthly increase in mortgage approvals indicates the building of market momentum and return of pent-up demand as buyers cautiously return to the market. The ‘effective’ interest rate (the actual interest paid) on newly- drawn mortgages fell by six basis points to 5.28% in December, the first drop in over two years (Bank of England). Lenders are competing for business and the best fixed-rate mortgage deals are now below 4%. Mortgage product choice has risen for the sixth consecutive month, reaching 5,899 options in January, a 15-year high. As the market stabilises, the average shelf life has increased to 21 days, the highest level since June (Moneyfacts).
GROWING ACTIVITY New sales agreed are up 13% in the first three weeks of January, compared to the same period last year, indicating sellers’ confidence for the year ahead. The measure has risen across all regions and countries and is highest in Yorkshire & The Humber (+19%) and the West Midlands (+17%). This rebound in sales activity indicates an increasing alignment between buyers and sellers on pricing. However, with one in five sellers accepting more than 10% below the asking price to achieve a sale, pricing attractively remains key (Zoopla). Residential property prices grew at their strongest rate in a year during January, an uptick of 0.7% and just a slight 0.2% decline on the same month last year. This was a significant improvement on the 1.8% annual decline in December (Nationwide). The average new seller asking price also increased by 1.3% in January, over double the 10-year January average of 0.6% (Rightmove).
PRIME MARKETS In the prime market, the average price of a property is £1,257,784, having moderated slightly by -1.3% year-onyear, but remains stable (-0.3%) month-on-month. Yorkshire & The Humber (+1.2%), the North West (+1.1%), and the West Midlands (+0.4%) are showing positive annual growth. So far this year, the number of buyers contacting agents about homes for sale is 8% higher than last year and the number of new properties being listed by sellers is 11% higher. Interest is expected to continue into February, which together with April is the month in which homes listed are most likely to find a buyer (Rightmove).
£406,000 £550,872 -1.6% £291
£520,000 £721,977 +1.1% £374
£585,000 £777,078 +0.4% £389
£527,000 £697,691 -0.6% £343
£477,000 £626,057 -2.4% £339
£769,000 £1,052,593 -2.1% £502
£508,000 £689,853 +1.2% £356
£827,000 £1,139,585 -0.3% £541 £992,000 £1,440,646 -1.1% £604
£1,700,000 £2,782,814 -3.3% £1,311
12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% JAN 2023
FEB 2023
MAR 2023
APR 2023
MAY 2023
JUN 2023
JUL 2023
AUG 2023
SEP 2023
OCT 2023
NOV 2023
DEC 2023
£1,200 £1,050
£ 1,080
£900 £750 £600
£ 749 £ 628
£450
£ 672 £ 591
£300 £150 £0 DETACHED
SEMI-DETACHED
TERRACED
FLAT/APARTMENT
ALL PROPERTY
0% -6% -12% -18% -24% -30% -36% -42% -48% DEC 2022
JAN 2023
FEB 2023
MAR 2023
APR 2023
MAY 2023
JUN 2023
JUL 2023
AUG 2023
SEP 2023
OCT 2023
NOV 2023
£268,217 £834,000 £1,257,784
£221,242 £734,000 £1,170,120
£212,434 £678,000 £1,078,188
£267,033 £674,000 £953,656
£446,245 £1,190,000 £1,703,627
£280,020 £851,000 £1,278,139
10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% JAN 2023
FEB 2023
MAR 2023
APR 2023
MAY 2023
JUN 2023
JUL 2023
AUG 2023
SEP 2023
OCT 2023
NOV 2023
DEC 2023
£400 £350 £300
£ 345
£ 340 £ 290
£ 284
£250
£ 240
£200 £150 £100 £50 £0 DETACHED
SEMI-DETACHED
TERRACED
FLAT/APARTMENT
ALL PROPERTY
72
71
69
66
66 63
62
62
60
59 57
57 54 51
57 55
55
55
55
55
52
48 DEC 2022
JAN 2023
FEB 2023
MAR 2023
APR 2023
MAY 2023
JUN 2023
JUL 2023
AUG 2023
SEPT 2023
OCT 2023
NOV 2023
DEC 2023
DEC 2022
JAN 2023
FEB 2023
MAR 2023
APR 2023
MAY 2023
JUN 2023
JUL 2023
AUG 2023
SEP 2023
OCT 2023
NOV 2023
DEC 2023
48 42 36 30 24 18 12 6 0
POWERED BY
2024-02-02