FEBRUARY 2022
N AT I O N A L H O U S I N G M A R K E T U P D AT E
KEY STATS E N G L A ND A N D WAL ES
£800,000
£1,179,886
6.47%
£621
£50.9bn
19,919
LATEST DATA
QUARTERLY CHANGE
ANNUAL CHANGE
71,015
-7.1%
-29.9%
RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS (MTH)
100,110
-18.5%
-20.0%
GROSS MORTGAGE LENDING (MTH)
£21.7 bn
-7.5%
-10.8%
NEW HOME STARTS (QT)
38,070
1.3%
23.4%
NEW HOME COMPLETIONS (QT)
32,930
-9.2%
-4.5%
MORTGAGE APPROVALS (MTH)
2 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL
MARKET OVERVIEW E RE S YE OA F RC HTH AA NTG EWA S 2 0 1 8D R- I VTH Although is upon us, there is littlesince seasonal and ‘good will to all’ 2021 was the the festive busiestseason year for the housing market 2007.cheer Despite economic evident across the demand political arena. to dominate theofheadlines as all eyes headwinds, buyer remainsBrexit high continues as the underlying drivers more space awaita change the finalofoutcome. Whatever the conclusion, are rates. sure to be implications for and lifestyle remain, supported by lowthere interest sterling and the economy. As 2018 draws to a close, are we any closer to predicting what we can expect in 2019? A RECORD YEAR It’s official, 2021 was the busiest market since 2007, with activity levels unseen since before the Global Financial Crisis. HMRC report that across UK, just shy ofCHEER 1.5 million sales took GLIMMERS OFthe SEASONAL place, 43% higher than in 2020 and a rise of 26% compared to Throughout 2018 sales volumes acrossare theup housing 2019. Mortgage approvals and lending by 15%market and 29% have struggled, thanks to the backdrop of lower buyer respectively, compared to 2020 (Dataloft, Bank of England), demand andlevels low levels consumer and activity remainofbrisk, even confidence. following theHowever, end of latest data from the Bank of England indicates mortgage financial incentives provided by governments. approvals in October were 4% higher than a year ago, while the total value of lending hit its highest monthly figure since Rightmove and Zoopla report there has been no let-up the surge in transactions prior to the introduction of the in buyer demand at the start of 2022. The success of the additional 3% SDLT levy in March 2016. More sales took country’s response to the Omicron variant and the lifting of place across the UK in October than in any month since July COVID restrictions have increased positivity, and prospective 2017, while Rightmove data shows properties in 2018 to buyers continue to evaluate lifestyles and ‘search for date have taken an average of 61 days from the startspace’. of Hybrid working looks here to stay. As many one startday the year marketing to being sold-subject-to-contract, settling into new routines, Zoopla report that demand from shorter than last year and an improvement on the 65 days apartment hunters outside the capital is at a five-year high. witnessed in 2016. Demand within the capital is at its highest level since the rateRightmove in the summer, Despitereopened the rise ininthe UK base market Summer 2020. report new year mortgage interest rates remain low. UK Finance report that demand is up 15% year-on-year and Zoopla has seen demand at 2.23% the current average mortgage interest rate is lower in the opening weeks of 2022 at 49% higher than the average than the rate both five and ten years ago, 3.14% and 6.11% witnessed between 2018–2021. respectively. Adjusting for inflation, wages have risen over the past year, positive news for household finances. Pent-up demand remains high; a lack of available property to purchase means that buyer competition is nearly double that SENSE AND SENSIBILITY of a year ago (Rightmove). Best and final offers for property in sought-after locations are commonplace, and many are selling Sensible pricing remains crucial to achieving a sale. The above asking price. average asking price of a property fell by 1.7% in November, the largest November fall since 2012 according to REBALANCING Rightmove, while annual house price growth has moderated throughout the year. Annual house price growth across the There are year tentative signs that was stock3.5%, levelsdown will start improve UK in the to September fromto 4.6% a in theago, coming weeks;toRightmove the number of home year according the official report UK House Price Index. valuations in theacross first working of slightly 2022 was up than 44% aon Average prices Londonweek remain lower the same time in 2021, and perhaps more usefully, given year ago, the capital currently feeling the brunt of Brexit the uncertainty.
country was in lockdown a year ago, valuations were up 48% on 2020. At present, an estimated 40% of buyers enquiring about a home have not yet put theirs on the market. So called ‘power buyers’, those who have money in their pocket or have Across UK prime markets,are theinaverage of property already soldthe subject to contract, the bestprice position to is down a fraction on a year ago. However, across many secure their dream property. assets 2018 has not proved momentous. In the year to the end of November average gold to hasdouble fallen by With annual property the price growthprice in orofclose over 1%, the stock market the S&P digits in many areas, any influx (FTSE of new100) stockbyto6%, thewhile market Global Luxury Index is 5.5% lower than a year ago, despite should help calm property price inflation. The latest data wines andindicates classic cars boasting small price positive returns. fromfine Nationwide annual property growth Many commentators report evidence of pent-up in the year to January is 11.2%, the strongest start to demand a higher priced properties, with prospective vendors yearfor since 2005. In the prime markets, annual price growth waitingexceeds for more clarity before they commit their currently 10% in the North West, WesttoMidlands, purchase. Wales and Yorkshire and the Humber.
A CRYSTALHEADWINDS BALL ECONOMIC Unsurprisingly all current forecasts for 2019 are issued with The IMF (International Monetary Fund) predicts the UK a caveat relating to a deal being brokered between the UK economy will grow by 4.7% over 2022, the strongest growth and the EU. The Governor of the Bank of England, Mark of any of thehas G7reiterated industrialised nations.that Balanced event ofthis, a noCarney, his forecast in the against inflation is expected to peak at 7.25% in April and take-home deal Brexit the economy may fall by over 8% and average income is likely terms by 2%forecasts over 2022, thethe house pricestobyfallupintoreal 30%. Current from biggest fall since records began in the 1990s. Concern for levels the Office for Budget Responsibility point to employment economy has led to ain4-point drop in consumer continuing to rise 2019, along with average confidence earnings, while in January compounded energy price rises and s 2.0% inflation(GfK), is predicted to edgebyback to the government’ planned to National Insurance contributions in April. target.changes This may well require a gradual rise in interest rates, although the current view is that the base rate will rise to Thejust Bank raised 1.5of– England 1.75% by 2021.the base rate to 0.5% in early February, but this is unlikely to have a significant impact on the Across theshort housing market, per 2018, many market in the term. Most as homeowners are on fixedcommentators expect the wider UK market to outperform rate deals and even at 0.5%, the base rate is extremely low by London. An average of independent forecasts predicts price historical standards. With energy costs a significant element growth across the UK will be 2.2% during 2019. In of current price rises, this may well turn the spotlight onto comparison, those commentating on the London market more energy-efficient homes, particularly for those seeking to anticipate 2019 may well prove another year of falling upgrade or take their first steps onto the property ladder. prices. Compound growth across the UK is anticipated to be in the region of 11% – 14% over the next five years. Forecasts for London vary widely, from less than 5% to over 10%. Only time will tell which trajectory is more likely to be true. PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 3
REGIONAL P R E M I U M M A R K E T S : TOP 5 %
£400,000 £541,478 +9.6% £261
£507,000 £706,845 +13.5% £338
£498,000 £680,181 +14.6% £322
£566,000 £759,175 +12.5% £361
£515,000 £675,592 +9.5% £303
£455,000 £593,700 +12.0% £298
£718,000 £976,599 +8.4% £449
4 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL
£783,000 £1,069,604 +8.4% £510
£927,000 £1,340,020 +7.4% £548
£1,500,000 £2,414,000 –3.3% £1,134
NATIONAL P R E M I U M M A R K E T S : TOP 5 %
PROPERTIES SOLD ABOVE THE PREMIUM PRICE THRESHOLD
The premium price threshold is the value over which the top 5% of property sales occur. The chart shows a rolling 12 month change in the average price paid for premium properties compared to the previous 12 month.
ENGLAND & WALES
14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% JAN 2021
FEB 2021
MAR 2021
APR 2021
MAY 2021
JUN 2021
JUL 2021
AUG 2021
SEP 2021
OCT 2021
NOV 2021
DEC 2021
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER THE LAST 12 MONTHS, PROPERTIES SOLD ABOVE THE PREMIUM PRICE THRESHOLD
An individual premium price threshold is calculated for each property type based on sold prices in the last 12 months. The chart shows the average price paid per square foot for all of these premium properties.
ENGLAND & WALES
£1,200
£900
£1020 £741
£600
£561
£563
SEMI-DETACHED
DETACHED
£621
£300
0 FLAT/APARTMENT
TERRACED
ALL PROPERTY Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 5
TRANSACTIONS A N D K EY P RI C E PO IN T S
ALL PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS THE COUNTRY
ENGLAND & WALES
Chart shows a rolling 12 month change in transactions compared to the previous 12 month period.
All property
75%
£1m+
50%
PLEASE NOTE: Caution should be taken when viewing this chart due to the delay in recording Land Registry sales.
25%
0%
-25% DEC 2020
JAN 2021
FEB 2021
MAR 2021
APR 2021
MAY 2021
JUN 2021
JUL 2021
AUG 2021
SEP 2021
OCT 2021
NOV 2021
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
£269,104 £800,000 £1,179,886
£230,685 £722,782 £1,076,073
£213,047 £677,011 £1,062,019
£254,961 £647,150 £899,283
£413,990 £1,058,370 £1,542,398
£276,926 £813,306 £1,204,825
6 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL
NATIONAL MA IN S TR E AM MAR K E T
ALL PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS THE REGION
Rolling 12 month change in the average price paid for all properties sold compared to the previous 12 month period.
ENGLAND & WALES
16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% JAN 2021
FEB 2021
MAR 2021
APR 2021
MAY 2021
JUN 2021
JUL 2021
AUG 2021
SEP 2021
OCT 2021
NOV 2021
DEC 2021
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER THE LAST 12 MONTHS OF ALL PROPERTY SALES
Average price paid per square foot for all property transactions.
ENGLAND & WALES
£400
£348 £300
£310 £279
£267 £238
£200
£100
0 FLAT/APARTMENT
TERRACED
SEMI-DETACHED
DETACHED
ALL PROPERTY Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
PREMIUM MARKETS I NATIONAL I 7
AVAILABILITY A N D TI M E TO S E L L
AVERAGE NUMBER OF DAYS TO SELL
NATIONAL
Average number of days from when a property is first marketed on Rightmove to when the estate agent marks it as “sold subject to contract”.
80
65 60
60
57
51 45 40
41
38
36
37
37
36
38
39
JUNE 2021
JULY 2021
AUG 2021
SEP 2021
OCT 2021
NOV 2021
DEC 2021
20
0 DEC 2020
JAN 2021
FEB 2021
MAR 2021
APR 2021
MAY 2021
Source: Rightmove
PROPERTIES AVAILABLE TO BUY PER AGENT
NATIONAL
Average stock per agent calculated by the average number of properties an agent has on Rightmove each day across the month.
50
40
30
20
10
0 DEC 2020
JAN 2021
FEB 2021
MAR 2021
APR 2021
MAY 2021
JUNE 2021
JULY 2021
AUG 2021
SEP 2021
OCT 2021
NOV 2021
DEC 2021
Source: Rightmove
T: +44 (0)207 079 1515 E: parklane@fineandcountry.com fineandcountry.com
Disclaimer :This repor t is produced for general information only.Whilst ever y effor t has been made to ensure the accuracy of this publication, Dataloft Ltd accepts no liability for any loss or damage of any nature arising from its use or from any changes made to Dataloft content by Inform users. Reproduction of all or par t of the repor t in any form is prohibited without written permission from Dataloft Ltd. Repor t edited by Inform user and published on 01-02-2022.
Please note that estate agents were closed during the first lockdown, from 23rd March to 13th May 2020. This will impact year-on-year comparisons. dataloftinform.co.uk
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