Agri View Winter 2015

Rural update from fishergerman.co.uk

Winter 2015

On track for

success 03 Welcome

08 Rural Business Awards

12 Harry’s view

04 Barn Lodge Farm

09 Claremont Farm Shop

14 On the market

06 Farmland analysis

10 Commodity markets

15 Meet the team

From David Merton A case study on capital investments Are farmland values flattening?

Celebrating rural business success

A case study on successful diversification The impact of 2015’s bumper harvest

Time to think about life outside the EU? Rural land and property for sale Introducing key personnel

Welcome / 2015

Fisher German Agri View

Welcome Challenging markets, EU uncertainty and celebrating enterprise...welcome to our second edition of Agri View n these challenging times for the rural sector, Fisher German was delighted to sponsor the inaugural Rural Business Awards, which took place on 1 October at Stapleford Park, near Melton Mowbray, Leicestershire.

Celebrating the best of rural entrepreneurship, from start-ups to renewable energy, and farm diversification to rural construction, the Rural Business Awards are an exciting way to recognise those striving forward in our sector. We have carried on the theme in this issue of Agri View by highlighting two case studies where opportunities to progress have been grasped by the landowner – diversification to accommodate a farm shop on the Wirral and expansion of a chicken broiler unit on the Belvoir Castle Estate, which has given the estate an opportunity to embrace alternative energy technology.

Even with the high yields achieved this 2015 harvest, farmers face the difficulties of a strong pound and slow global demand as world grain stocks are predicted to peak at their highest level for 29 years by the end of 2015/16; each contributing to the current downturn in

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David Merton

Front cover image: Glen Tillyard. Belvoir Castle Estate opposite Mary Hartfield

Head of Rural Sector, Fisher German LLP 07770 333331 david.merton@fishergerman.co.uk

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commodity prices. Inside, Zoe Shoesmith, grain trader with Frontier Agriculture Ltd, provides her view of the commodity markets as they stand at present and with the UK’s continued membership of the EU looking increasingly uncertain, Harry Cotterell, our chairman, gives us his view on what life might be like for UK agriculture outside the EU. We also give our thoughts on the outlook for the land market. Land prices remain strong, but both investors and farmers are less willing to commit to big expenditure and, in some instances, reduced agricultural profitability is driving sales. We are beginning to see signs that the pace of growth is slowing, which makes for some interesting times ahead.

Don’t forget, if we can assist you with any property or business-related advice, contact either myself or one of our rural team – see page 15. We would be pleased to help.

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Fisher German Agri View

Hatching a sustainable expansion Until the spring of this year, Barn Lodge Farm was a small broiler chicken operation. The farm with the support of the Belvoir Castle Estate now has capacity for 240,000 birds, the majority of which are housed in four state-of-the-art broiler houses that embrace the latest technology available

arn Lodge Farm is based on the outskirts of the village of Croxton Kerrial near Grantham on the eastern boundary of the Belvoir Castle Estate, the ancestral home of the Duke and Duchess of Rutland.

“As an Estate we are constantly looking for ways to diversify and make best use of our assets,” says the Duchess of Rutland. “Over recent years we have become increasingly keen to be involved with the production and use of energy from sustainable sources and we were therefore extremely excited when an opportunity presented itself to achieve both of these goals as part of a recent expansion of the broiler chicken operation.”

Prior to May 2015 Barn Lodge Farm was a small operation, consisting of

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only two sheds with a combined capacity of 69,000 poultry places, grown on contract for Moy Park; one of the 15 biggest food producers in the UK, with 14 manufacturing and processing units in Ireland, England, France and the Netherlands. Moy has the capacity to produce 240 million birds annually and provides around 25% of the total Western European chicken parent market.

Working with Fisher German who manage the let agricultural property and in hand farming operation on behalf of the Estate, an expansion of the broiler operation was agreed with Moy Park in 2014, to incorporate two forms of renewable energy production, making use of as much of the energy produced on site as possible.

The deal agreed has seen the expansion of the site at Barn Lodge

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Increasing productivity

Chicken production triples

from 69,000 to 240,000

Case study / 2015

from 69,000 birds to 240,000 birds with the addition of four new state-of-theart broiler houses to supplement the existing two. Each with a capacity of c.42,750 birds, these new clear span steel structures have the most up to date technology which was being championed by Moy Park. The entire process is automated and features high welfare features, such as external windows and enrichment elements for the chickens within the sheds.

The development offered an opportunity to incorporate the renewable energy sources that the Estate was so keen to develop and it was decided that the heating system for each house would be powered by a 199kW biomass boiler. In addition the Estate would also construct an array of solar panels nearby, the power from which could be utilised by the farm.

Planning consent was reasonably straightforward to obtain and after the required archaeological explorations of the site had been completed to the satisfaction of the county council’s archaeologist, work began in earnest in December of 2014. Thanks to an unusually dry and

“Including the income from the biomass boilers the Estate can now look forward to receiving a 14% return on its capital invested” mild winter work moved forward at a swift pace and by the end of April the sheds were substantially ready.

Thanks to the hard work of all involved and especially that of the Estate’s preferred contractor Morspan, the Estate handed over to Moy Park on 22 May 2015, the pre-agreed handover date.

Moy Park have taken the site on a 10-year Farm Business Tenancy (FBT), on a full insuring and repairing basis.

Including the income from the biomass boilers the Estate can now look

forward to receiving a 14% return on its capital invested.

The ground-mounted solar photovoltaic (PV) array, installed by the Estate adjacent to the 6 poultry sheds was commissioned in September this year but was pre-accredited to receive the Feed In Tariff prevailing prior to 1 July 2015. The system is predicted to generate over 90,000kWh pa, which

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will feed the poultry units with electricity being sold to Moy Park.

Any excess electricity can be sold back to the grid network.

The project is expected to provide a geared internal rate of return of over 20%.

Mike Reynolds Fisher German LLP 01530 410886 mike.reynolds@fisher german.co.uk

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Fisher German Agri View

Farmland market overview There has been a constant growth in farmland values over the last seven years, but as Stuart Flint comments, those increases could now start to flatten out ince 2008, the value of farmland has increased at a significant rate, but this spring brought a greater supply of land to the market than seen for some years, and with a reduction in demand, we are beginning to see a flattening in the growth of values.

Reduced agricultural profitability is driving some sales and, with the downturn of commodity prices, both investors and farmers are less willing to commit to big expenditure.

In addition, there is a greater variety in the range of farmland values being achieved than in recent years. Locality is key, as well as who is in the market.

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28% 06

Near expanding towns, farmers with rollover relief have a major influence and where there are high net-worth farmers, or adjoining owners with an interest, the market remains strong; whilst those without money from other sources are resisting paying the top level prices.

Our analysis of land transactions shows that individual farmers and private investors continue to be the principal buyers, with expansion and tax efficiency being the principal motivators for purchase.

Commercial bare land is under the greatest downward pressure, with low commodity prices and predicted interest rate increases exerting force.

of surveyors predict a small fall in arable and pasture land values

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An increase in the supply of commercial farmland, together with a tailing off in demand across many parts of the country, has resulted in a review of price growth expectations over the next 12 months.

Our research indicates a reduction in expected growth for the next 12 months, with more than 28% of our surveyors predicting a small fall in values for both arable and pasture land.

Demand for land with a significant residential component remains strong, with the majority of our surveyors expecting these blocks to continue rising at a stronger rate than that of bare land.

Market analysis / 2015

The motivation for purchase in last six months

The motivation for sale in the last six months

7% 15% 31%

20% Source: Fisher German Rural Index 2015. Percentages include responders who ticked multiple categories

11%

35%

37%

38%

31% Tax advantages

2%

New entrants

11% Downsizing

15% Development

38% Expansion

7%

Development

37% Retirement

2%

20% Investment

2%

Other

35% Financial pressure

In the medium term, there is confidence in the market. We expect the gradual upward trend in land prices to continue with growth of up to 4% predicted by the majority of our surveyors over the next three years; supply remains low in historic terms and current commodity prices are likely to move back to previous levels, so agricultural profitability should stabilise.

Meanwhile, yields for investment land remain at an all-time low, and investors are beginning to look outside traditional investment areas.

Many have undertaken a strategic review of their portfolios, releasing poorly performing land to the market, and seeking to retain only those

blocks that offer long-term strategic potential.

Although land continues to be considered a safe haven, with investors attracted by its tangibility and other non-financial returns, a predicted plateau in land values means there is increased pressure from stakeholders to secure a more attractive return from their investments, particularly with improved political and economic conditions enhancing the relative performance of other asset groups.

Many investors are looking to streamline their

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Other

property portfolios. Fisher German has helped a number of institutional and corporate clients in this process, taking the opportunity to dispose of poorly performing investments while land values remain at record levels. We have marketed land nationwide in varying parcel size over the last 12 months on this basis, and looking ahead to next year, there is more to come.

Stuart Flint Head of Agency Sector Farms, Estates and Country House Sales 07501 720422 stuart.flint@fishergerman.co.uk

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Fisher German Agri View

Rural Business Awards Celebrating the best of British entrepreneurship, the inaugural Rural Business Awards took place at Stapleford Park, near Melton Mowbray, Leicestershire he awards, which recognise rural business success across the UK, are the brainchild of rural specialist & MD of Be Rural, Jemma Clifford and management consultant, Anna Price.

They were supported by the CLA and sponsored by Fisher German.

The prestigious awards dinner, held on 1 October 2015, was attended by 200 guests and celebrated the very best of British rural entrepreneurship in ten award categories. Fisher German was delighted to be associated with seven of the fantastic finalists. The awards were judged by an independent panel and the ten categories spanned a number of sectors from start-ups to renewable energy, and farm diversification to rural construction, enabling a range of businesses to gain recognition.

The Rural Business Award Champion of Champions was presented to Lily

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Warne Wool, the winner of the Best Rural Start-Up Award. The mother-andson partnership is based on the edge of Dartmoor in Chudleigh, Devon, where the family keeps a flock of pure Greyface Dartmoor sheep.

The fleeces are spun into Aran wool and used by local employees to create products both at the home farm studio and in local homes. Lily Warne products can be found throughout the UK and Lily Warne Wool has become a leading figure in the Devon wool industry.

We were delighted to congratulate Claremont Farm Shop, The Hayhurst Arms, The Hexgreave Estate, Pegoty Hedge, The Tatton Estate, Honesberie Shooting School, Warner Edwards and all shortlisted finalists, who each make a vital contribution to the rural sector.

The evening was well attended from across the sector and congratulations go to all winners, including our clients, and the new rural businesses we had the pleasure of meeting on the night.

Above: Champion of Champions winners Lily Warne Wool Left: David Merton presents Hexgreave Estate with its award Far left: Honesberie Shooting School receives its award

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Case study / 2015

Farm’s ingredients for brighter future Claremont Farm Shop – a purpose-built shop, café and cookery school that is helping one farming family on the Wirral to grow a thriving and future-proof business he new Claremont Farm Shop was the brainchild of Andrew Pimbley, who set about transforming the fortunes of the family holding at Claremont, near Bebington, Wirral, on his return from Venezuela in 2003. Claremont has, for many years, been one of the principal holdings on the Poulton Hall Estate, managed by Fisher German since 1998.

There had been a small retail outlet at Claremont for some years, based in one of the traditional buildings, but Andrew identified the need to expand and create a new larger, stand-alone structure, which would significantly enhance the fledgling Claremont ‘brand’.

Previously, with the help of his father and brother, they started the Wirral Food and Drink Festival in 2004 and rebranded and widened the scope of the event in 2014, with the introduction of the Wirral Food Feast, combining a celebration of local produce with

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live music. In 2013, assisted by Fisher German, plans were drawn up for a new, purpose-built farm shop, kitchen and café. Planning consent was obtained and financial help secured in the form of a LEADER grant from the Rural Development Programme for England.

The building project, in part funded by the landlord at the request of the Pimbley family, was then supervised by Fisher German’s Chester office building surveying department.

The building was completed in spring 2014 and has been trading strongly ever since.

It combines a large farm shop extending to about 2,000 sq ft, which sells Claremont’s extensive range of soft fruit, asparagus and other local produce, as well as the popular café and kitchen/cookery school.

The school offers a wide

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range of courses from local chefs, cooks, producers, bakers, chocolatiers and even beekeepers!

Location of the farm is key, and looking ahead, vehicle access and parking have been designed to allow the development of a ‘drive through’ web-based order and collection facility, which will be set to take the Claremont brand to the next level and, by doing so, significantly raise the profile of the estate.

Claremont was recently shortlisted as a finalist in the 2015 Rural Business Awards, in the ‘Most Outstanding Rural Diversification Project’ category.

Julian Mellis Fisher German LLP 07718 524815 julian.mellis@fisher german.co.uk

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Fisher German Agri View

A view on commodity markets 2015 has proved a bumper harvest for farmers in the UK and worldwide, but it may come at a cost as high stock levels and slowing demand squeeze prices down his year’s harvests have seen the arrival of some fantastic yields for UK farmers, including new world records for both wheat and OSR by one farm. A favourable growing season along with new, high-yielding seed varieties has helped many achieve full barns.

Grain quality has been pleasing and a good percentage of milling wheat has hit the bread-making criteria.

Some new varieties of group 1 milling wheat have the potential to achieve a significant step up in yield, closing the gap between milling and feed wheat varieties. This means that drilling milling wheat is becoming more common. The one flag raised by this is that with a plentiful supply of milling wheat, premiums could become tighter; milling premiums have lost around £20/t from the peak of last season and the outlook remains weighted towards lower premiums while supply is ample.

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grain prices; ample supply means commodity markets have become used to the idea, and the key driver of price direction going forward will be demand. Global demand, however, is slow and at some point, it must be assumed that prices will reach a level that attracts buyers and reinvigorates demand. The concern is that with such high stocks, this could come at the expense of further declines in price.

Closer to home, demand has been of paramount importance in the UK. We carried forward a record 2.865mmt (million metric tonnes) into this harvest and produced a new crop expected to exceed 16mmt. Domestic demand from UK consumers has been good with wheat pricing favourably into rations, but this is not enough. For the UK to shift its wheat surplus, good export volumes are needed; around 3.7mmt would take us back to a normal carry in for next season. So far,

the ability to ship this volume has been severely restricted by two factors; strong sterling, which against weaker foreign currencies makes us uncompetitive, and slow global demand leaving exporting nations fighting for business and willing to heavily discount offers in order to ship their huge stocks.

Pulse area expected to grow The UK bean market has changed dramatically over the past year as farmers look to increase bean area, following CAP reform changes, which led to a price reduction. This initially appears negative, but has stimulated demand for feed beans, and many mills manufacturing ruminant feeds now incorporate beans.

Buyers of human consumption beans are having a tougher time as traders in Egypt, the primary market, experience difficulty finding sufficient dollars to pay for bulk bean cargoes because of

World wheat supply and demand

10

750

300

Production mmt Consumption mmt Year End Stocks mmt

700

250

650

200

600

150

550

100 2006/7

2007/8

2008/9

2009/10

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2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

Source: Frontier Marketing Ltd

High global production The UK’s good yields have not been unique; high global production of grains has dominated the headlines for the second consecutive year. The 2015 crop year began with high global stock levels and, as the northern hemisphere harvest progressed, it seemed crop estimates were increased every week.

The International Grains Council has consequently forecast world stocks at the highest level in nearly 30 years. This glut of supply is the key factor in falling

Commodity price forecast / 2015

“A sharp downturn in the Chinese economy has also had a negative impact on oilseed rape markets”

strong currency restrictions enforced by the government; this is unlikely to change in the near future.

Despite lower values, the area of pulses is expected to grow in 2016.

However, demand for domestic peas has fallen more than 20% over the last two years as they have been substituted to reduce costs in pet food and with strong competition from France, Canada and the Baltic States, it seems UK demand will decline further, forcing prices lower. Beans appear to be a more stable option, due to sustainable domestic feed demand. Frontier will soon launch its new buyback bean contract for harvest 2016 to give farmers some security when drilling beans.

Weather events key to oilseed rape outlook Oilseed rape has been subject to lower prices this season as a direct result of large supply in the global oilseed complex; the US soybean crop is forecast to be the second largest in history. A sharp downturn in the

Chinese economy has also had a negative impact on oilseed rape markets; as the world’s largest importer of oilseeds, its slowdown in demand has had a direct impact.

In the UK, the oilseed rape area is expected to be down as the late wheat harvest delayed OSR planting.

Lack of moisture in the Ukraine has also meant planting has been slow this autumn and if conditions do not improve the country’s harvested area could reduce significantly.

The El Nino weather event is showing signs of building, which could cause dryness and affect planting in Australia. El Nino also brings wet weather to South America, which could impact soybean crops this winter. If any of the anticipated weather events around the world come to fruition, and consequently alter the supply and demand picture, the outlook for oilseed prices could change.

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Dealing with price uncertainty The landscape of commodity prices is ever changing, but volatility has become a reliable factor, bringing with it opportunities for price increases, but also the risk of market decreases.

Less favourable prices have focused the industry’s attention on ways to mitigate risk by managing volatility.

Frontier has a strong track record in pool marketing, allowing farmers to contract grain to be marketed by expert commodity traders. This method is becoming a core approach for many farming businesses, reducing risk and the onus of decision making in a constantly shifting environment.

Frontier will be offering pool marketing to all Fisher German clients for the 2016 season.

Zoe Shoesmith Grain Trader Frontier Agriculture Ltd 07824 867690 www.frontierag.co.uk

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Fisher German Agri View

Harry’s view With the first EU referendum opinion poll predicting a yes vote for the UK to leave Europe, it’s time for farmers to start thinking the unthinkable; life outside the EU...

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So, to survive, we will have to get a whole lot more productive. Will the regulatory burden ease, to enable us to compete in the global markets?

Even outside the EU, we will still be dependent on European markets to price our output, and will be competing with other EU nations to win export opportunities. The fact they will be better subsidised than us will give them a competitive advantage and, to access their markets, we will probably have to play by their rules, which means technological advances (GM or crop protection) may not happen immediately, if at all. If you produce fruit or veg for the domestic market, you may find the gradual removal of products available for plant protection slows up, or is even reversed, but most years the UK needs to export arable output, so for cereals this may not be the case.

After the weather, the biggest impact on farm profitability is the sterling/euro exchange rate. This year has shown us how difficult it is to farm with a strong pound, even with good yields. I guess leaving the EU would make the exchange rate more volatile, both against the US dollar and the euro, with significant impacts on farm profitability both ways.

While a weak pound will help prices, it will also impact on inputs, most of which are imported and there is a danger the UK, with its tiny output in global terms, will become

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a technological backwater, tinkering in the margins of global production.

EU agricultural output is predicted to grow 7% by 2050, whilst Brazil will grow 40%. This fact tells you where global R&D effort will be focused.

Further concerns exist around the availability and cost of labour.

The food industry, but particularly downstream of farming, is entirely driven by imported labour. It is impossible to guess what will happen over immigration in the event of an exit, but it will be one of the rallying cries of the leave campaign, and I guess the availability of imported labour can only reduce. The proposal to increase the minimum wage will add cost to the food chain, regardless, but it might make the UK a more attractive place for imported labour, which could reduce negative impact of an exit or a weak pound.

So, it’s time to wake up and think about this and the impacts on our businesses. As farmers, we face risks from all sides, from the weather to exchange rates, and we tend to get on and play the hand we are dealt.

To continue the metaphor, the pack is currently being shuffled and we need to think very hard about how this particular hand plays out.

Harry Cotterell OBE Chairman of Fisher German harry.cotterell@ fishergerman.co.uk

Photo Glen Tillyard

s I write, the first poll predicting a vote for the UK to leave the EU in the IN/OUT referendum has been published. This is no surprise, really. Summer headlines were dominated by Greece’s troubles, European border security and stowaway migrants. And, more recently, the Volkswagen emissions scandal brings fresh daily revelations about attempts to circumvent emissions regulations by Germany’s principal car manufacturer, which I suggest will do more to damage the case for remaining in Europe than any other event. After all, VW, with its reputation for reliability, technology and modesty, is a German icon, symbolising Germany’s dominance of European car manufacturing, much the same way they dominate the EU, and news of deliberate dishonesty will tarnish Germany’s reputation as a paragon of European virtue.

So, it’s time for farmers to start thinking seriously about life outside the EU. This uncomfortable prospect will change virtually all aspects of UK agriculture for the worst, and could happen very soon. We all know that most years, UK farming is only profitable with CAP payments. If we leave the EU, we leave the CAP, and while it is likely farming will continue to be supported, direct payments will probably be decreased, more targeted and possibly capped. With unprecedented pressure on public spending, farm support will have to take its share of austerity.

Harry’s view / 2015

“Leaving the EU would make the exchange rate more volatile, both against the US dollar and the euro, with significant impacts on farm profitability both ways” fishergerman.co.uk

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On the market

Just a small selection of rural property we have for sale

To register your land acquisition requirements please email farms@fishergerman.co.uk

Waddingworth, Lincolnshire

Huxley, Cheshire

Harescombe, Gloucestershire

Alton, Staffordshire

• Arable farm • Quality farmhouse • About 527 acres

• Compact estate • Whole or in 4 lots • About 169.5 acres

• Residential farm • Exceptional views • About 170 acres

• Mixed agricultural estate • Arable and pasture farm • About 177 acres

GUIDE PRICE £5,250,000

GUIDE PRICE £2,950,000

GUIDE PRICE £3,400,000

GUIDE PRICE £2,750,000

Tarporley, Cheshire

Pontrilas, Herefordshire

Lea, Lincolnshire

Braceborough, Lincolnshire

• Dairy farm with farmhouse • Well equipped buildings • About 152 acres

• Diverse farm • Overlooking Monnow Valley • About 127 acres

• Arable and livestock farm • Ring-fenced woodland • About 315 acres

• Mini estate • Whole or in lots • About 51 acres

GUIDE PRICE £2,600,000

ASKING PRICE £2,200,000

ASKING PRICE £1,850,000

ASKING PRICE £1,580,000

Cromwell, Great Broughton, Sinope, Nottinghamshire Cumbria Leicestershire

Hucknall, Nottinghamshire

• Arable land • Mineral reserve prospects • About 169 acres

• Arable and pasture land • Whole or in 5 lots • About 104 acres

GUIDE PRICE £1,300,000

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• Land and derelict buildings • Whole or in 8 lots • About 484 acres GUIDE PRICE £1,255,000

• Ring-fenced arable farm • Farmhouse and buildings • About 73 acres GUIDE PRICE £1,200,000

fishergerman.co.uk

ASKING PRICE £930,000

Meet the team / 2015

Meet the team…

Our 15 offices provide local experts in all these work areas. If you would like guidance on any rural property matters, please contact one of us and we will ensure you get to talk to the very best advisor

Stuart Flint Head of Agency Sector Farms, Estates and Country House Sales 07501 720422

David Merton Head of Rural Sector Estate Management and Strategic Consultancy 07770 333331

stuart.flint@fishergerman.co.uk

david.merton@fishergerman.co.uk

Richard Sanders

Mark Newton

Holly Richardson-Parry

Charles Meynell

John Ikin

Farm Consultancy 07885 215972

Energy and Renewables 07860 514474

Expert Witness 07836 212307

richard.sanders @fishergerman.co.uk

mark.newton @fishergerman.co.uk

Valuation and General Practice 07501 720416

Compulsory Purchase 07887 627978

holly.richardson-parry @fishergerman.co.uk

Kay Davies

Ben Marshalsay

Planning 07733 124551

Development 07771 974322

kay.davies @fishergerman.co.uk

ben.marshalsay @fishergerman.co.uk

charles.meynell @fishergerman.co.uk

john.ikin @fishergerman.co.uk

Richard Benson

William Gagie

Building Consultancy 07768 552827

Minerals 07551 152691

richard.benson @fishergerman.co.uk

william.gagie @fishergerman.co.uk

Agri View is intended to be an informative guide. It should not be relied on as giving all the advice needed to make decisions.

Fisher German LLP has tried to ensure accuracy and cannot accept liability for any errors, facts or opinion. If you no longer wish to receive Agri View or any other Fisher German marketing material, email info@fishergerman.co.uk.

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New

Mon

sa

Agri-Facts

a month

ly round

Vital information for you every month Richard Sanders Head of Farms Department

Agri-Facts is a summary of important agribusiness information that you can receive free every month from us and includes news, data and comment on a variety of subjects including:

Current commodity prices such as wheat, barley and oilseed rape, futures prices

Current prices for nitrogen and compound fertiliser, red diesel, straw and hay

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28 EU ha had A fur d Ja The RP Farmers s be any’s pular nstanto aban Cost state nuary A are ity can en set Ge ther thr sa result of ma is cit donin . s op ne statin expe on 30 g sugvings ing s. th ize to ha ticall ee sta are g tha ct a t ou News and lower ar ve su y Modif tes (M red Septem t t ma soyb price cane of uc alt GM bm be jority GM tio eans s for itte ied (G a, Slo of pa n in BP r at €1 d an M) ve threecrops in ma its ymen S pa =0.73 d op crops nia an Month stateswill ha jor 12 ym (ex farm d Lu ted on ts are 9. Th The en joinin ve to be eit ) out. xe Nov 2015 expe ts of ap e 2015 Biotecher all mbou g, ov gro news co appro cte pro wn year or pa rg) er me hn d xim ha Jan 2015 of the inFeed ve 65 to be olo sees s as the Whe % of d at gy cort of the ve file UK. at exch Syng ma ely 6% world varie£115 the at an d las ir Mar 2016 de mp EU ara EU lev /tSyngen enta Feed Barle wide ties wi t mi durin from bu ange anies territo y ble el ta as appe thi rig g the dg will ry. Wi nute ap £118 Cro Milk Data hts/t n Eu are be fore ars thi be to it’s rop state£104 norm et a haOilse ed ss C MeRape objec n Grea plica d tha/t to ha al d mb GM e. Two £107 £121/t om August t Bri tions to t to ma othe /tt the ve withd be en/t er Sta Date Ave Month £272 plia ta theenc Curr the exclu ize de tes r Sy . Monthly nce appli y in, Engla EU tra Fuel/Stra can £115 ded it po/t ngen cision raw Price n ap 1 st Oc w/Silage nd to pre co=ns1.35 catio to £271 ta key /t from £/€ rtfo is the ve tob 23.26 ppl ns.

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1.52 aw igr EC er Prior 35 Big bale 7p/litre cro straw n is ies Boo ain for aitingMon 6 ps to the hay ths thlyba $200 appro Fertiliser sed waitin £34/tonn Price Finished lat m an on g for e SMR va est Yo Pigs 34.5 34.3 u % d co 1 7ppl.l The cothe co ap £39/tonn AN (Bag p/kg dwt uplancanNbu 15 th ntinu mm prova e Oc rn he s UK) £/to erc ed mpan d are Price th tob 17:1 nne royalt y ha ial po l to be athe Finished Sta er 5 Sept as7:17 rt of (Bag s als from ten r, £/to Steers ies. s) Desc £229-236 av o gra tial the (FO nne this rou 129.08 gh p/kg dwt riptio 0:10 (Bag 12 th Septailab 20:1 clo ) nte date. gra SMR dig n -290 ss, bra £281 d estedle nitrogse perio s) £/to 1 5 th Sept nne Finished 31 st 128.sa cken th d for sewa en19 76ndy.

Lambs Oc Sept ap £240,-247 gorse tob ge conte 349.70 plying p/kg dwt 12 th Sta nt er slu128.

Sept rt dge) 03 (for ex org 26 th Sept or vacc avail of the 5 th Sept to tilla am anic inium 350.20 able close 19 th ple 127.

GA Marke ma dig ge Sept EC on ested nitrog perio t roundu1 st land , slurry 72 nure 342.70 2 land 12 th saSept d for on26 th , poult with ndy. sewa en co351. p Nove in The FAO soilsSept ry a nte 50 apply ge mb ma highly wh If yo10 354. nt sludg record. has raised er 19 th Sept ing rea 352.40 ich are nures org This pred 30the e) to (for ex whollu hold fore further anic am not or liq dily ictionth No cast for a USD 350.5 grassla ple, 26 GA is 3ve the worl shall uid ma ma y withi summ MM depresse A report Sept mb slurryth nu ke ac n the er T er ow dEC nd high whe due 6 at wa the on or , po re with crop by the next d for the nea in Octobe er than the n ha tual ab month ter ab soils351. a USD 70ultry r. The GA r future. which ve str ma highly str s regularly twelve mon Youa furth strength A’s Septemb er28 coths.

7 da Millionactio of Ap actio man SachEC rea are nures durin er n 2 of sterling oth ca ntaWheatGold pred lower dil retTonsril to Oc n licen not or bu ictio ys toMetnric s have er glob and prices. g the cday e has shall liquid y tha al rn hen, howse wwtrading ce (MMT)tob t Ri.pric predicte nd urn for eve been n (a ow at ove If to yo r ms er) this c Winter in d Whil w uth yothat he rsup ur rea av 735, the hast rd or u ha crop uplan .fish ply r, rou prices volatile in the wheat be raise T, a ori of whe may ailab MMEn expe sin new din conditio ve a pricesdwill plan last e at are dleaga vir arebe gh gra Sarem Fish ting in few gs ct to unin onmeg abstr to in with two-p likely wee er Ge mos rgerm ndain to stres ns in cen ks with as,subj actio the ectss,tobra toto rec a nt Retral keepyou ers spiring, high art whe from rman t of Nort a s Euro gister a grad Ag ereiv n ckenual Envirmarfro hern n. than m wheat new wint e yobudtariff at pricthi Reer Grea – 01 ed pe. is Euro e smak co dec on kets 31 Oc ency gulat date. whe plantings office a limter con pe has ur segeteag ing , gorse line me Fish d ree 858 ovent following ed at plan yield . Aust cond d liabcern has .uk/ commen r Ag tober. will : 40 tingsite er Geralia me by s shou and losin or months. been rura Hig. Cold ency all 41in goo ced gain You comes part nt forld compen gva rmanisRIC h Str ility wea faci raised cc s S Sout . after the the adh East eet, pather over dryn 02 charg your rtn sate forinium LLP ng a peri now due l-c Europe. o ess in00d conditions with odMa ersiship haralia third vice neAust on e af water in thensul , reg land, is likely ofrkehot Ukraine ededs tried plantingsUkraine is thoudriest Sept ter mild con areata abstr iste dry to be t Haand whe emb 30 whic to er to nc ensur red ther worsrbo have ac rou wea h y/ on may comre lack of mois cern No t affe in En that remaine ght to have ma ove reco gh e rd. ver mb ke de cted accu The NFU dry tion lic , Lei with fa is gla plan plet ture likely d Oilse stati rm ely close er. ted cis is eno nd ence rac ed rape ceste tem c but andture to affects data wouhas announ ugh y an still 8.6% anionarea s. rshirepera , ced that 29% d ca plantings s remainin crop prod the window lower LE1 Wales released ld suggest are for nn uctio than their redu ced . Re 67N pred g high ot from that tota the UK whe X icte . The ann n over the dgisto averageac uncerta on 15 th Oct terbe at ce last ed redu ouncem ober howl crop is lowe harvest is inty rega areapt. liab year and 16.6 figures, ent the UKnumbced r ility across it is cert rding the accever this has at 16.13MM 8MMT, with for 10% er: mos OC an dow tonnes T with an ave ain that been 317Germ t of uracy n. of a yield dela rage nati y errors 554 any’ of prov em has rem wheat durin there is a of nea , fac s isional ail:yed due to large rer 8.8t/ onal yield g t or prodfa “additio surp milling ained largely August, a of opinio ha. A rmns@ 9.1t/ nal 20% dec lus of both uctio wheat ha.n.Initia seco figures. static. being line from feed and fishe Regardlquality assuranc nd report was Please l DEFR only sligh UK exports ess of e che millinrg are bein 2014, whic do A due to tly mor g the cks” er whe not h fell sligh be , cau g ham e expe mat within accuracy use pered nsive than tly shor an this .co. the UK. The of the NFUsing further t of impo as UK feed by higher or DEFR ukmea UK expo rts mois wheat.

A email: (AM, NB)ture than othe ning wwthe surplusrted 103,204 farms@f r expo w.fi stock rters isherge level , sh and erge Black rman.c rmSea o.u

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