Agrifacts | November 2023 Your monthly roundup of news, prices and other farming matters
| Grain Market Report It has been a tale of positives followed by negatives recently in the wheat market, just when it seemed we were getting somewhere and getting to target numbers the market seems to drop again. The key number to watch at the moment is May 2024, which seems to give incentives to carry. The market at the moment is relying on forecasted yields in the US, but we need to remember that these are just forecasts. The other numbers that most were looking out for were the South American forecasts – many thought that because of the poor start that some of these crops have had, the forecasts would be lowered. Nope – they’re all exactly the same – for now. With most fund managers continuing to run an almost record short position, the market clearly gets nervous when it sees headlines like ‘Ukraine says Russian missile hits civilian vessel in Black Sea’. From here, how big would the leap be to hit a moving grain vessel? The market in recent weeks has become very relaxed about news like this but we saw some move’s up because of it. In the flat market we have operated in, the general feeling is that don’t want to miss little spikes when they appear. The analyst SovEcon also gave some good analysis on Russian’s own export numbers comparing this seasons potential export of 3.8-4.2 million metric tonnes to last years 4.3 million metric tonnes. They have also been commenting on a possible export quota (circa 24 million tonnes) which may be introduced from mid Feb through to the end of their old crop season. We will see if this story has legs. Back to the UK then, and after some excitement from a recent positive in the market it soon feels that we might be back to square 1. Some positives though, which we must remember – •
There are still some sensible shorts out there for specific grades.
•
There is still a good carry into Jan – Mar and Apr – June positions.
•
Premiums for both milling wheat and malting barley are at multi year highs
•
New crop numbers are trading at a healthy premium to old crop – which may be attractive for initial forward sales
Another positive is that the weather may have just taken a turn for the better. Hopefully we might get a few more consecutive dry days! In all seriousness it’s been a very tough spell. Most of us hope to be able to drill some more winter wheat before giving up for the spring completely. The market wants us to drill it too, but as I have commented in recent reports, taking some forward cover is going to depend very much on your own individual circumstances. Barley remains the poor relation to wheat – the spread between the two refusing to close up as merchants try to take advantage of any export opportunities that appear. Currently this remains jolly difficult. A quick word on rapeseed which had, during the week followed the soybean crop as Chicago tried its best to reach two month highs with their flash sales to China taking place. The USDA numbers have extinguished some of this enthusiasm though – we may have to play a waiting game a little longer yet. Alice Kilham Openfield
| Grain Market Prices Month (ex farm) Midlands
Feed Wheat
Feed Barley
Oilseed Rape
Currency
September 2023
£182/t
£158/t
£349/t
£/€ = 1.16
Milk Data
Avg Monthly Price
UK Farmgate Milk Price
36 ppl
Fuel/Straw/Silage
Price
Fertiliser
Price
Red Diesel
81p/l
Imported AN £/t
£361.00
Big sq Baled Wheat Straw
£50.00/tonne
Gran Urea £/tonne
£412.00
Big Bale Hay
£75.00/tonne Finished Steers
Finished Lambs
Finished Pigs
479.7
569.8
218.6
p/kg dwt
| Harvest 2023 Summary The weather was testing during the 2023 cropping year, especially following a wet spring and some late drilled spring crops that resulted in a late harvest. The testing weather seemed to continue into harvest with showers throughout the season. There has been some variation in harvest results due to the weather but I think the main issue with the weather is the reduction in quality as yields were no better than average in places. The table below shows the results of a pool of FG farms yields from Harvest 2023: Harvest 2023
Average Yield t/ha
Average Yield t/ac
Winter Wheat
8.29
3.36
Winter Barley
7.88
2.99
Spring Barley
5.63
2.28
Winter Beans
2.63
1.07
Spring Beans
2.42
0.98
Winter OSR
3.58
1.45
There are now some difficult decisions being made my arable farmers following one of the wettest Octobers on record.
| Biodiversity Net Gain Biodiversity Net Gain (BNG) is a strategy to develop land and contribute to the recovery of nature, it will make sure the habitat for wildlife is in a better state then it was before development. From January 2024, most major developments will need to deliver BNG. This will mean providing a 10% net gain for biodiversity. This will be achieved by delivering habitat onsite or, if that is not possible, through buying off-site biodiversity units. This could open many opportunities for Land Owners and Managers.
| Countryside Stewardship Facilitation fund The Countryside Stewardship Facilitation fund brings together groups of people who collaborate to improve environmental outcomes in their local area. This years round of the scheme includes support for environmental priorities such as: •
Action to support priority species
•
Water Management
•
Improving air quality by reducing emissions of pollutants such as ammonia
| The Sustainable Farming Incentive – applications now open Farmers can now apply for the Sustainable Farming Incentive (SFI) without having to express their interest in the scheme beforehand. The newest environmental scheme is now up and running for all BPS eligible farmers. A great opportunity to get some funding, paid quarterly for a 3-year scheme - a 40ha grassland farmer will be getting an SFI income of £10,000 for putting their grassland into two options:
SFI Option
Area (ha)
Payment Rate (£/ha)
Total (£)
GL2: Winter bird food on improved grassland
10.7281
474
5,085.11
LIG1: Manage Grassland with very low inputs
30.2458
151
4,567.11
Management Payment
40
20
800
Total
£10,452.22
Please get in touch with a member of the team to discuss any options and what may be the best approach for you.
| BPS De-Linked Payments Information Statement Farmers should expect to receive a ‘Delinked Payments Information Sheet’ by email over the next few weeks, if it’s not been received already. This will be received by the main email on the RPA account, which may be your advisor. These need to be checked carefully as the amounts shown for each of the reference years (2020-2022) will determine Basic Payment Scheme receipts for the remainder of the transition period (2024-2027). There is a limited window to challenge these amounts with the RPA until 29th February 2024. Please get in touch if you have any queries on this.
| Countryside Stewardship Facilitation fund The Countryside Stewardship Facilitation fund brings together groups of people who collaborate to improve environmental outcomes in their local area. This years round of the scheme includes support for environmental priorities such as: •
Action to support priority species
•
Water Management
•
Improving air quality by reducing emissions of pollutants such as ammonia
| Key Dates - Cross Compliance Date
Restriction
1 November 2023
You can burn heather, rough grass, bracken, gorse or vaccinium on land, other than in upland areas, from this date. (GAEC 6)
30 November 2023
If you have a two-part tariff agreement for your water abstraction licence, expect to receive your second part charge after 30 November. (GAEC 2)
1 December 2023
You need to carry out your annual inventory of sheep and goats. (SMR 8)
schem
fishergerman.co.uk 01858 410200 farms@fishergerman.co.uk