January - February 2019 Agrifacts

AgriFacts January - February 2019 Your monthly roundup of news, prices and other farming matters

Market Commentary The grain market has been a lacklustre and quiet affair for the past two months. UK wheat prices have gradually drifted as the likelihood of the UK having a small surplus at the end of the season has become more probable. Both UK bio-ethanol plants are currently closed, to some degree or other, which has taken a slug of demand out of the equation.

On a wider scale the big two issues facing the grain trade are firstly the ongoing trade dispute between the USA and China. Rumours abound with regard to progress, or a lack of it, in the trade talks but little solid news has been forthcoming to date as to a long term resolution of the dispute. The second factor that is impacting grain traders is the shut down in parts of the US government which has meant we have had no official data released by the USDA so far this year. USDA reports, and export data, are seen as the ‘go to’ official statistics on which the trade relies. The absence of these reports leaves the trade to make educated guesses as to the latest real situation.

Russian wheat exports are another focus for traders and market analysts. For how long, and at what rate Russia continues to export is the key question. Recently Russian domestic prices have risen and this may cause importers to switch demand to other origins, although to date this is unproven.

Back in the UK all eyes are on Brexit as the clock ticks down to the current UK departure date of 29 March. Political discussion on Brexit continues to dominate the headlines with Sterling moving up and down on the latest prospects for a soft exit, a ‘no deal‘ exit, another referendum or any combination of these outcomes.

For the UK market, with larger crops forecast for the 2019 harvest and the likelihood that we will produce exportable surpluses, it is obviously preferable to be secure in the knowledge we will be able to export to our largest traditional export market, the EU, with zero tariff or customs issues. UK importers of cereals are hoping that the same applies for their traditional grain imports.

There is still a long way to go, and a lot of weather to get through, before the northern hemisphere harvest arrives and history tells us there will be good market opportunities over the coming months.

However there is probably more political uncertainty than we have seen for many years and markets will react to the latest news as events unfold. Making predictions of what these events will consist of is almost impossible at present.

David Sheppard Managing Director

Month (ex farm) Midlands

Feed Wheat

Feed Barley

Oilseed Rape

Currency

Feb 2019

£170.00/t

£150-155/t

£315-320/t

£/€ = 1.13

Mar 2019

£171.00/t

£151-156/t

£316-321/t

€/£ = 0.89

Apr 2019

£172.00/t

£152-157/t

£317-322/t

$/£ = 0.78

Milk Data

Avg Monthly Price

UK Farmgate Milk Price

31.04ppl

Fuel/Straw/Silage

Price

Fertiliser

Price

Red Diesel

55.8p/litre

34% N AN (bags UK) £/tonne

£297.00

Big sq Baled Wheat Straw

£58.00/tonne

0:24:24 blend (bags) £/tonne

£296.00

Big Bale Hay

£132.00/tonne

20:10:10 blend (bags) £tonne

£275.00

p/kg dwt

Finished Steers

Finished Lambs

Finished Pigs

351.6

435.4

145.8

Basic Payment Scheme 2019 Entitlement & Land Transfer Window Open The RPA have now opened the online transfer window for entitlements and land. You can transfer entitlements and land parcels for BPS 2019 until 15 May. The RPA have announced BPS 2019 will run as normal on the same basis as 2018, with applications opening in Spring 2019. Updated guidance for farmers will be published later this year.

New AMR (Antimicrobial Resistance) Action Plan On the 24 January the government published the new five year National Action Plan along with a longer term UK AMR 20 year vision, which outlines the UK’s contribution to containing and controlling antimicrobial resistance in health, animals, the environment and the food chain. Livestock producers have already reduced antibiotic usage by 40% since the last strategy was published five years ago – but the plan says there is still more to do. The government has committed to working with vets and farmers to further reduce antibiotic use in livestock by 25% between 2016 and 2020, with objectives to be refreshed by 2021.

New Announcements on Seed Royalties The plant breeder RAGT is expected to launch a new scheme this Summer to try and help reduce the risk associated with establishing crops after the loss of neonicotinoid seed treatments causing high levels of cabbage stem flea beetle. The new scheme aims to allow growers to only pay seed royalties on Oilseed Rape crops that have established. The purpose of the scheme is to reduce the risk associated with growing Oilseed Rape, as establishment is key and the area gown has generally been falling over the past few years.

Farmers will need to place their seed orders with a merchant along with an RAC (Royalty Area Collection) number, they will then be sent a form on 1st November to declare their area of Oilseed Rape. Any area left growing after that date will be subject to royalty under a RAC agreement. Royalty payment is due 28 days after the invoice.

RAGT have selected its most vigorous varieties to give growers the best chance of establishing an Oilseed Rape crop. The scheme will apply to the group’s two Clearfield varieties Nizza and Belizze and the non-Clearfield hybrid variety Azzurite.

Key Dates Date

Regulation

Restriction

1 February

Cross Compliance

You can apply organic manure with a high readily available Nitrogen content to grassland and tillage land on all soil types if conditions are suitable and you adhere to the quantity restrictions for application of these manures.

5 February

ELS/HLS/CSS

Overwinter stubble can be returned to farm rotation.

18 February

Countryside Stewardship

We have been advised that the Mid-Tier Countryside Stewardship Application window will open from this date, allowing for the application of Countryside Stewardship, Water Capital Funding Endorsed Through Catchment Sensitive Farming

28 February

Cross Compliance

End of quantity restrictions for application of organic manures with a high readily available Nitrogen content.

fishergerman.co.uk 01858 410200 farms@fishergerman.co.uk

Fisher German is a limited liability partnership, registered in England and Wales.

Registered number: OC317554 Registered office: The Head Office, Ivanhoe Office Park, Ivanhoe Park Way, Ashby de la Zouch, Leicestershire LE65 2AB Regulated by RICS Fisher German LLP has tried to ensure accuracy and cannot accept liability for any errors, fact or opinion.

Please do not use this as all the advice needed to make decisions.