AgriFacts July 2018 Your monthly roundup of news, prices and other farming matters
Market Commentary As I write this article the global markets remain in a state of flux. News stories are full of ‘noise’ about weather impact on crops, be that here in the UK or overseas in the US, Russia or Australia. You can take your pick of reported ‘market moving’ stories but the key is the correct interpretation of the impact they may just have on the UK markets. This time of the year can result in a number of false positives or negatives and reality is it always comes down to fully understanding your market place and your commodities. The recent months have seen the instigation of many import taxes on various commodities and products around the world, but I do wonder how many UK farmers really understand the impact these taxes could have on them as individuals and more importantly if the powers that be in Westminster understand the impact they could have on UK trade by removing various EU trade mechanisms come Brexit. We ignore Newtons third law – ‘for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction’ at our peril but it is the smart farmer who should be able to work out how to get the best from an indifferent situation. This should come through a full understanding of what they can grow successfully, by understanding their local market place and being ‘the best they can be in every aspect of what they do’. It’s not just farmers who are worried about the future and its uncertainties. UK cereal consumers are realising that they may also need to engage with their suppliers. The ‘stand back and it will come to me’ days may be on the cards as trade wars bite and new agricultural policy, post Brexit, could just make the UK
an importer of cereals rather than the exporter it has been for so many years. Cereals remain the corner stone of much of the UK agricultural industry be it through seed, machinery, fertiliser and chemicals, through to the consumers, be they livestock, millers, ethanol plants or distillers, but we should never forget that most consumers can use imported grains or alternative commodities. The increase in maize imports into the UK happens almost annually, but understanding the trade mechanisms involved to ship non-EU maize to the UK, so you know the real value / price, can only help when valuing ex farm UK cereals. Similarly, fully understanding the impact that the current price spread between US soybeans against EU OSR is vital, as is knowing which countries have imposed new import taxes on US soybeans and maize and what this could do for UK domestic market consumers. Markets are always exposed to changes but the challenge for all of us is to improve our knowledge and understanding of the basics – supply, demand, logistics and legislation – we ignore all 4 at our peril as we enter the uncertainty that evolves around Brexit. Cecilia Pryce Compliance, Shipping and Research Openfield
To add to the confusion we have President Trump’s ongo-
Month (ex farm) Midlands
Feed Wheat
Feed Barley
Oilseed Rape
Currency
July 2018
£155.00-£165.00/t
£133.00-£140.00/t
£296.00-£300.00/t
£/€ =1.1314
Nov 2018
£160.00-£168.00/t
£140.00-£148.00/t
£305.00-£309.00/t
€/£ = 0.8838
May 2019
£166.00-£174.00/t
£146.00-£155.00t
£310.00-£315.00/t
$/£ = 0.7558
Milk Data
Avg Monthly Price
UK Farmgate Milk Price
26.76 ppl
Fuel/Straw/Silage
Price
Fertiliser
Price
Red Diesel
63.17p/litre
34% N AN (bags UK) £/tonne
£245.00 (Nov)
Big sq Baled Wheat Straw
£91.00tonne
0:24:24 blend (bags) £/tonne
£285.00
Big Bale Hay
£95.00/tonne
20:10:10 blend (bags) £tonne
£265.00
p/kg dwt
Finished Steers
Finished Lambs
Finished Pigs
371.80
495.60
147.61