AgriFacts March 2019 Your monthly roundup of news, prices and other farming matters
Market Commentary It’s now only a few of weeks to go until the UK leaves the EU. Or is it? Bookies odds have been consistently predicting an extension to Article 50. Some suggest this could be for a ‘short’ period, others say until the end of July, yet others fear it could extend into an indefinite period. Would this extension be in place, the UK remains a defacto member of the EU, with all the rights and obligations that entails. The current trade tariff regime will also apply. With an element of uncertainty likely to be resolved, this has allowed sterling to recover sharply. Against the euro, the pound has broken through (strengthened) a relatively narrow trading range that has been in place since September 2017. The negative impact of this on our domestic wheat prices is in addition to the sharp price movements overseas. World grain prices plunged dramatically in February. Russia, Australia, US, Ukraine and EU values all show steep losses for February. Indeed, France’s futures prices are £15 lower than at 1st Feb, while US wheat values are some £18/t down. LIFFE wheat futures ‘only’ shed £9 over the same period. As such the price spread between the UK and France has moved from around -£8, to +£2 in three weeks, in doing so making the UK currently attractive again for imports. While there are numerous reasons why the global sell-off occurred, the trigger was a poor reading for US sales a few weeks back. Generally favourable crop conditions, slow exports from the EU and US, question marks over the level of remaining global import demand alongside the dwindling amount of time before freshly harvested supplies are available all contributed to the price declines.
has offered to buy $30bn worth of US agricultural produce. If this were to eventuate, then Chicago’s futures markets would certainly sit up and take notice! Furthermore, markets are currently pricing-in almost perfect global crop conditions. This, before the world’s largest crop – US corn – has yet to be planted. Last year, Europe’s crop yields suffered from very hot and dry conditions in May and most of Continental Europe and the UK have yet to recover properly from highly deficit soil moisture conditions. That said, UK crop conditions currently look very good nationwide, with the recent dry and warm spell allowing farmers to start fieldwork. Without a repeat of last year’s late-season heatwave, new crop could be the first season in the last three when the UK will be a net exporter. The price spread between the UK and the continent will need to reflect this fact, with currency movements highly influential again. Good news greeted the grains industry recently, with the announcement that Ensus, the ethanol factory in the north east, will be re-opening in March. Time will tell how much grain they will use, but on paper imported maize would seem the most logical choice in the short term. Rupert Somerscales Senior Consultant ODA-Agri
On the positive side, the world balance sheet remains relatively tight historically, with a very low stocks/use ratio when China is excluded. In an attempt to break the negotiation deadlock between the US and China, the latter
Month (ex farm) Midlands
Feed Wheat
Feed Barley
Oilseed Rape
Currency
Mar 2019
£159.00/t
£134
£303
£/€ = 1.1583
Apr 2019
£160.00/t
£135
£304
€/£ = 0.8633
May 2019
£161.00/t
£136
£305
$/£ = 0.7619
Milk Data
Avg Monthly Price
UK Farmgate Milk Price
29.85ppl
Fuel/Straw/Silage
Price
Fertiliser
Price
Red Diesel
57.1p/litre
34% N AN (bags UK) £/tonne
£277.00
Big sq Baled Wheat Straw
£54.00/tonne
0:24:24 blend (bags) £/tonne
£287.00
Big Bale Hay
£130.00/tonne
20:10:10 blend (bags) £tonne
£273.00
p/kg dwt
Finished Steers
Finished Lambs
Finished Pigs
347.1
419.7
143.8
Tariffs on food imports Red Tractor has World Leading Standards A recent international benchmarking study has found that the Red Tractor Assurance has world-leading standards. Looking at the main international schemes, the results recognise that the breadth and depth and the factors covered by the Red Tractor are second to none, with the scheme consistently being the world-leader in traceability and food safety. These findings strength and reaffirm the importance of the Red Tractor Scheme within the UK market, allowing the consumer to have confidence in the quality of food produced, alongside the high levels of animal welfare and environmental standards that are required to be met by farmers. Shoppers are able to look for the logo and be assured that the food that they are purchasing is of the upmost quality, £13bn of British products carry the easily identifiable logo. Although a world leader, the study found areas that the Red Tractor could develop in order to improve the schemes to allow for even higher standards to be met. These areas covered the planned developments that the Red Tractor currently has, looking towards moving into specialist areas such as higher welfare, environmental enhancement and organic production. Red Tractor Assurance will be launching a new confidential phone line that will go live in June. This will allow any member of the public or farmer to report anyone who they believe are failing to meet the high standards of the scheme. This new phoneline ‘Farmed with Care’ will be available 24/7, 365 days a year and aims to assist in the improvement of compliance throughout the entire supply chain.
Consumer groups are opposing the suggestion of tariffs being applied to food in the event of a no-deal Brexit, stating that it will cause an increase in prices, putting a burden on British Consumers. They believe that abolishing tariffs would help lower the price of meat by 3%, encouraging UK markets to actively compete with the rest of the world. However, it is argued that the introduction of a tariff is essential in order to offer protection against imports that do not meet the UK Standards. It has been proposed, although not confirmed, that a potential policy would apply a higher tariff to products such as beef and lamb, which is readily available in the UK, whilst products that are not home produced, such as citrus fruits would be tariff free. Those products that are trading at, or close to world prices would have lower tariffs in comparison.
Key Dates Date
Regulation
Restriction
Available now
BPS
Online entitlements and land transfers can now be completed, transfers must be completed by 15 May 2019
Available now
Countryside Stewardship
Countryside Stewardship 2019 Four Wildlife Offers applications opened on 18 February 2019. Apply by 31 July 2019
Available now
Countryside Stewardship
Mid-Tier self service application packs available via email, the request deadline is 31 May 2019. Applications close 31 July 2019
Available now
Hedgerows and Boundaries Grants
Hedgerows and boundaries capital grant applications are now open. Applications should be made by 30 April 2019
1 March
Cross Compliance
You must not cut or trim hedges or trees from this date, but you can carry out hedge and tree coppicing and hedge laying from 1 March until 30 April.
13 March
BPS
BPS Online Applications available from 13 March. Submission deadline is 15 May 2019
31 March
Cross Compliance
Water abstraction licence holders should expect annual bills or first-part charge if twopart tariff agreements are held.
1 April
VAT & Tax
VAT Registered businesses with a taxable turnover above the VAT Threshold are required to use the Making Tax Digital service in order to keep their records digitally and use software to submit their VAT returns
1 April
Cross Compliance
Ban begins on burning heather, rough grass, bracken, gorse or vaccinium other than in upland areas
1 April
Cross Compliance
28-day window opens for winter or year-round water abstraction licence holders to submit readings to environment agency
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