Agrifacts October 2019

AgriFacts October 2019 Your monthly roundup of news, prices and other farming matters

Brexit update & commodity prices The Brexit process continues to be mired in political shenanigans, however the odds on a “No Deal” Brexit appear to be rising.

Whether it is realised in the timescale the Prime Minister wishes is very much up for debate. The resumption of Parliament following the unlawful prorogation means that the Agriculture Bill has not fallen away and remains stalled at the House of Commons Committee stage.

In the meantime, the benefit of a weaker GBP (£) has meant UK Wheat is competitive on the world markets and the GBP/EURO exchange announced at €1 = £0.89092 is similar to last year

keeping the value of the BPS payments up.

It is clear that businesses have been trying to reduce their exposure to a No Brexit deal and the impact it could have on our agricultural exports. We hear that the UK exporters are trying to get as much of their Wheat, Barley and Beans out of the UK before 31 October which is creating some logistical problems.

With the largest Wheat harvest since 2015 and record Barley and Oat harvests, but the smallest estimated OSR harvest since 2004, (Source: AHDB) the main commodity prices as at 29 September 2019 were:

Market Prices Month (ex farm) Midlands

Feed Wheat

Feed Barley

Oilseed Rape

Currency

October 2019

£121.00/t

£109.00/t

£332.00/t

€/£ = 1.12

November 2019

£130.00/t

£113.00/t

£333.00/t

$/£ = 0.89

Milk Data

Avg Monthly Price

UK Farmgate Milk Price

28.80ppl

Fuel/Straw/Silage

Price

Fertiliser

Price

Red Diesel

62.65p/litre

34% N AN (bags UK) £/tonne

£255.00

Big sq Baled Wheat Straw

£46.00/tonne

0:24:24 blend (bags) £/tonne

£276.00

Big Bale Hay

£56.00/tonne

20:10:10 blend (bags) £tonne

£250.00

p/kg dwt

Finished Steers

Finished Lambs

Finished Pigs

324.10

353.10

152.72

Basic Payment Scheme Update – Financial Discipline Refund From mid-September the RPA have stated refunding the FDM (Financial Discipline Mechanism) payment back to eligible 2018 claimants. The rate being used for 2018 is 1.346% (1.310% in 2017). Remittance advice slips will be sent with ‘FDM Reimbursement’ on them once payment has been made.

Red Tractor Introduces Nematicide Best Practice Protocols Red Tractor has announced that from 1st October it will be incorporating the Best Practice Protocol issued by the Nematicide Stewardship Group (NSP) into its standards and will formally become part of the farm audit.

Granular nematicides are used to control microscopic parasitic worms that live in the soil and cause significant damage to the roots of crops. However, if they are not applied safely, they can potentially pose a risk to the consumer or the environment.

Livestock Market Update Cattle Prices Finished cattle prices remain under severe pressure with no sign of improvement throughout 2019. Current deadweight quotations sit at 320p/kg, 51p/kg less than the same time in 2018. Despite a flood of the market with finished cattle earlier in the year it is anticipated that overall annual slaughterings will be reduced by 3% on the year. The market is currently being depressed due to the high level of uncertainty from processors and retailers and therefore there is little sign of any increase in the prices until Brexit is resolved. Many processors are also pushing for further maximum carcass weight restrictions below 400kg.

Store cattle remain firm with best quality still attracting a marked premium given the current finished prices. Yearling Steers reaching £850 and Yearling Heifers £750. There seems to be slightly more optimism in the beef market following further Brexit discussions. Despite this, Suckler Herd numbers continue to decline, with breeding cattle declining by 60,000 in 2018.

Lamb Prices Towards the end of September, there has been a slight seasonal decline in the finished lamb prices with deadweight quotations currently placed at 378p/ kg. Reports indicate that there has been a stronger lambing this Spring with increased numbers of lambs born compared to the lambing of 2018 largely dominated by snowfall. Despite a reduced finished price, the breeding sales across the country report a largely stronger trade than 12 months ago, reflecting a belief and optimism in the sheep industry despite the threats of significant tariffs in the event of a ‘No Deal Brexit’. Another bright point for the home trade producers is that there has been a 41% decrease of imports from New Zealand and Australia with China proving a more attractive market than the EU. Store lambs are coming onto the market with averages seen similar to last year with strong lambs reaching £70, medium lambs from £60 and smaller growing lambs from £45.

Pig Market Pig prices have remained relatively stable with prices slightly increasing to 151.03p/kg, however, still remain 6p below last year’s levels. Slaughtering too has remained stable at 182,000, 5,700 head less than last week but 6,400 head more than the same week last year.

Key Dates Date

Regulation

Restriction

1 September

RPA

You can cut or trim hedges and trees from this date until 1 March 2020.

1 October

RPA

Cover crops must be established by 1 October and be retained until at least 15 January.

1 October

Cross compliance

You can burn heather, rough grass, bracken, gorse or vaccinium on land in upland areas from this date.

1 October

Cross compliance

For those within an NVZ: Start of closed period for applying organic manure with a high readily available nitrogen content (for example, slurry, poultry manures or liquid digested sewage sludge) to tillage land and grassland on soils which are not shallow or sandy.

20 August 14 October

RPA

31 October

Cross compliance

EFA Catch crops must be established 20 August and be retained until at least 14 October.

If you hold a summer water abstraction licence (authorising abstraction wholly within the months of April to October), the Environment Agency (EA) will make actual abstraction return forms available to you from 31 October. You then have 28 days to send your readings to the EA.

fishergerman.co.uk 01858 410200 farms@fishergerman.co.uk

Fisher German is a limited liability partnership, registered in England and Wales.

Registered number: OC317554 Registered office: The Head Office, Ivanhoe Office Park, Ivanhoe Park Way, Ashby de la Zouch, Leicestershire LE65 2AB Regulated by RICS Fisher German LLP has tried to ensure accuracy and cannot accept liability for any errors, fact or opinion.

Please do not use this as all the advice needed to make decisions.