AgriFacts September | October 2021
Your monthly roundup of news, prices and other farming matters
Market Update Harvest 2021 has certainly been testing with later crop development and a pretty miserable August frustrating combining. With better weather in early September however for most harvest is now complete and the general picture seems to be average rather than great yields but quality holding on.
concerns over Black Sea crop supply with Russia’s wheat export tax increasing in September and their export prices rising but with the USDA reporting an increased wheat area wheat futures prices have come off against their recent high’s.
The AHDB report a national Winter Wheat yield of circa 8.1t/Ha and spring Barley around 5.8-6.2 t/ha.
UK OSR yields were also better than the previous year according to the AHDB but against a backdrop of global tight supply and rising oil prices, OSR prices remain at the top end of their normal range.
Initial AHDB estimates indicate that there could be a 14.1-14.5Mt UK wheat crop compared to the 2020 figure of 9.6Mt as a result of a greater area being planted last autumn. UK wheat consumption has averaged 14.7Mt per annum so supply:demand is tight even before the introduction of E10 petrol and bioethanol demand.
The question now has to be whether prices will remain in this range for harvest 2022. With the 10th September WASDE report suggesting that projected 2021/22 global stocks could be higher with India, EU & Canada accounting for most of the increase they might soften.
The import/export balance for UK wheat is finely balanced therefore and quality will count when it comes to knowing what will be imported and exported. So far wheat prices are relatively good with global wheat supplies still being reported as tight despite a positive Australian wheat crop forecast. Some of this is due to continued
As ever managing that risk, particularly against a background of sharply increased fertiliser costs will remain the challenge David Kinnersley Head of Fisher German Agribusiness
Market Prices Month (ex farm) Midlands
Feed Wheat
Feed Barley
Oilseed Rape
Currency
October 2021
£180.5/t
£167.50/t
£498.50/t
£/€ = 0.85
January 2022
£185.5/t
£170.50/t
£502.50/t
€/£ = 1.38
Milk Data
Avg Monthly Price
UK Farmgate Milk Price
30.41 ppl
Fuel/Straw/Silage
Price
Fertiliser
Price
Red Diesel
56.15p/litre
34% N AN (bags UK) £/tonne
£355.00
Big sq Baled Wheat Straw
£55.00/tonne
0:24:24 blend (bags) £/tonne
£435.00
Big Bale Hay
£65.00/tonne
20:10:10 blend (bags) £tonne
£350.00
p/kg dwt
Finished Steers
Finished Lambs
Finished Pigs
411.10
530.50
155.96