NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights BY JEN ALLEN MONTHLY SALES HIGHLIGHTS
HIGHEST SALE
LOWEST SALE
$15,700,000
$335,000
FISHER’S REVIEW
25 STARBUCK ROAD MARKETED FOR [870 Days]
KEY MARKET STATISTICS ALL PROPERTY TYPES
FY 2021
Transactions
FY 2020
% CHANGE YOY
5-YEAR AVG.
152
73
108% d
102
$350,985
$177,926
97% d
$221,948
6.1
6.3
-3% f
7.2
94%
93%
1d
93%
Active Listings (March)
132
274
-52% f
239
Months Supply of Inventory
2.2
7.8
-71% f
11.0
New Contracts (March)
50
21
138% d
32
Dollar Volume ($in 000s) Avg. Months on Market Sale Price to Last Ask Price
NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE ACTIVITY THROUGH MARCH 2011–21
# of Transactions
During this time two years ago, we noted a surprising dip in first quarter transaction activity compared to the previous year. One year ago, with transaction activity all but halted, no one knew what to make of the market or where we might be headed. This year, the Nantucket real estate market is on another record-setting course, posting the highest first quarter dollar volume in island history. Through March 31, 2021, activity soared to 152 transactions totaling $350.9 million, a respective 108 percent and 97 percent higher than one year ago (when data did not yet reflect much impact from the pandemic). For perspective, this compares to 154 transactions totaling $251 million in 2005, the next closest first quarter period as measured by transaction volume, and 122 transactions totaling $266.8 million in 2018, the next closest first quarter period by dollar volume. Though contract activity also posted impressive results, “months’ supply” of property inventory took a remarkable dip down to just 2.2 months. It’s looking like we may soon run out of supply, or at least the supply will never hit the market before transacting, leaving market metrics in a position that strongly favors sellers. Here are Fisher’s first quarter market insights…
$8,700,000
4 ASTER COURT MARKETED FOR [1 Day]
Dollar Volume
MAR 21
4 HEATHER LANE MARKETED FOR [98 Days]
LONGEST SALE
© 2 0 2 1 F I S H E R R E A L E S TAT E
(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS
1
NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights
BY JEN ALLEN
1Q RESIDENTIAL & VACANT LAND SALES SUMMARY
RESIDENTIAL SALES ACTIVITY: 2021 VS 2020 & 5-YEAR AVERAGE
LAND & COMMERCIAL SALES SUMMARY STRENGTH ACROSS PROPERTY TYPES IN 2021
EXCEPTIONAL START TO 2021 2021
Total Transactions Total Sales Dollar Volume
2020
% Change
5-Year Avg (2017-21)
94
52
81% d
68
$272,059,1255
$147,094,000
85% d
$175,156,829
Avg. Selling Price
$2,894,246
$2,828,731
2% d
$2,546,600
Median Selling Price
$2,262,500
$1,925,000
18% d
$1,867,100
5.7
7.2
-21% f
7.8
94%
92%
2d
93%
Avg. Months on Market Avg. Price as % of Last Ask Avg. Price as % of Original Ask Avg. Price as % of Assessed Value
91%
85%
6d
88%
126%
133%
-7f
127%
• Despite a historically low inventory environment, single-family home sales (excluding condos, multi-family homes, co-ops & covenant properties) rocketed 81 percent ahead of 2020 sales while dollar volume rose a commensurate 85 percent. By 1Q20, sales data did not yet reflect much of an impact in closing activity from the disruption in the market that occurred late March, making 2021 data all that more impressive given the healthy start we saw one year ago.
MAR 21
• In reviewing 2021 sales by price point, against both 2019 and the 5-year average, homes sales for less than $1 million actually increased quite handsomely from one year ago with 10 transactions as compared to four in 2020. Following course with recent trends, homes priced between $1 million and $2 million saw the most activity with 31 transactions, while sales between $2 million and $3 million represented the highest percentage of sales, though were in line with the five-year average. Sales between $3 million and $5 million tripled from 2020 and saw the most growth from the five-year average. Home sales above $5 million were seven transactions higher than in 2020 (though two transactions lower than the five-year average), helping to explain the significant rise in dollar volume between the two periods.
2021
Transactions Total Sales Dollar Volume
2020
% Change
5 Year Avg (2017–21)
29
8
263% d
16
$38,790,511
$13,687,750
183% d
$21,673,738
Avg. Selling Price
$1,337,604
$1,710,969
-22% d
$1,278,806
Median Selling Price
$1,100,000
$1,060,375
4% d
$965,625
8.1
3.4
137% d
7.4
96%
99%
-3 f
94%
Avg. Months on Market Avg. Price as % of Last Ask Avg. Price as % of Original Ask Avg. Price as % of Assessed Value
95%
98%
-3 f
92%
170%
129%
41 d
136%
•
Thanks largely to several new subdivisions (Cannonbury Lane, Grey Lady Lane, Woodland Hill and Sandpiper Place) vacant land sales also enjoyed an exceptional start to the year. Through March 31, 2021, 29 vacant land transactions totaling $38.7 million took place. This compares to just eight transactions totaling $13.7 million in 2020 and 16 transactions totaling $21.7 million for the five-year average. Given that two of these subdivisions still have a healthy amount of inventory remaining, we anticipate land sales will continue to be active throughout the year. We also suspect values will follow a similar trajectory as demand outweighs supply. For example, lot price appreciation in the Cannonbury Lane development has been quite impressive.
•
As we touched on in last month’s report, the commercial segment of our market has also seen quite a turnaround. Through March 31, 2021, there were 11 commercial transactions totaling $24.2 million. Sales have quadrupled since this time last year and are double the number of sales for the five-year, first quarter average. As of the end of the first quarter, there were 12 commercial properties listed for sale. And with more clarity on the economic front than one year ago, we suspect this segment of the market will continue to do well.
• Although the first quarter saw more entry level home sales than one year ago, the median home sale price jumped 18 percent to $2.26 million. And as buyers clamored to purchase properties amidst low inventory, average marketing times declined markedly to just 5.7 months. Pricing metrics were largely steady, while aforementioned inventory levels were approximately 55 percent lower than one year ago.
FORWARD MARKET INDICATORS
INVENTORY LEVELS BY PRICE POINT
HISTORICAL COMPARISON OF CONTRACT ACTIVITY
RAPID DECLINE IN $1M TO $2M INVENTORY
POISED FOR A BIG SECOND QUARTER
# of Contracts •
As of March 31, 2021, total inventory for all Nantucket property types (residential, land and commercial properties) totaled 132 properties compared to 274 properties one year ago and 284 properties in 2019.
•
In looking at the three-year history of single-family listings by price point as of March 31 each year, it’s no surprise that nearly every price point (aside from $8M-$9M) saw a notable decline in available inventory. One of the most significant declines in the last three years has been for properties listed between $1 million and $2 million where listings measured 64 properties at this time in 2019 but just 13 properties a few weeks ago. This remarkable reduction in for-sale property explains why this price point has seen an incredible amount of appreciation in the last two years. It is traditionally one of the most sought-after price points (as measured by total activity) and inventory is at an all-time low. Several other price points have also seen a dramatic reduction in inventory which explains why we are seeing so many multiple-bid situations and also many offmarket transactions, wherein properties aren’t even hitting the MLS before they sell.
•
Continuing the record-setting trend dialogue, first quarter new purchase activity was also remarkable. In total, there were 138 Offers and Purchase and Sale agreements recorded (duplicates excluded). Though each month during the first quarter saw roughly the same number of contracts (42, 46 & 50 respectively), each month saw slightly more momentum than the last. This paints a nice picture for where the market is headed in the second and third quarters of this year.
•
Most of the first quarter contracts, 48 percent, were for properties last priced between $1 million and $2 million, up from the 29 percent for this segment in 1Q20, and another reason why we may continue to see solid appreciation in this price range. New contract activity for the $2 million to $3 million price point declined from 26 percent of new contracts one year ago to just 16 percent in 1Q21. For the upper end of the market, every price point (with the exception of $6M-$7M) saw one to four more transactions that during this time in 2020. There were no new contracts for properties listed above $9 million, similar to historic trends.
(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS
2
NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights
BY JEN ALLEN
RESIDENTIAL SALES ACTIVITY: 2021 VS 2020 & 5-YEAR AVERAGE EXCEPTIONAL START TO 2021 2021
Total Transactions
% Change
5-Year Avg (2017-21)
94
52
81% d
68
$272,059,1255
$147,094,000
85% d
$175,156,829
Avg. Selling Price
$2,894,246
$2,828,731
2% d
$2,546,600
Median Selling Price
$2,262,500
$1,925,000
18% d
$1,867,100
5.7
7.2
-21% f
7.8
Avg. Price as % of Last Ask
94%
92%
2d
93%
Avg. Price as % of Original Ask
91%
85%
6d
88%
126%
133%
-7f
127%
Total Sales Dollar Volume
Avg. Months on Market
MAR 21
2020
Avg. Price as % of Assessed Value
• Despite a historically low inventory environment, single-family home sales (excluding condos, multifamily homes, co-ops & covenant properties) rocketed 81 percent ahead of 2020 sales while dollar volume rose a commensurate 85 percent. By 1Q20, sales data did not yet reflect much of an impact in closing activity from the disruption in the market that occurred late March, making 2021 data all that more impressive given the healthy start we saw one year ago. • In reviewing 2021 sales by price point, against both 2019 and the 5-year average, homes sales for less than $1 million actually increased quite handsomely from one year ago with 10 transactions as compared to four in 2020. Following course with recent trends, homes priced between $1 million and $2 million saw the most activity with 31 transactions, while sales between $2 million and $3 million represented the highest percentage of sales, though were in line with the five-year average. Sales between $3 million and $5 million tripled from 2020 and saw the most growth from the five-year average. Home sales above $5 million were seven transactions higher than in 2020 (though two transactions lower than the five-year average), helping to explain the significant rise in dollar volume between the two periods. • Although the first quarter saw more entry level home sales than one year ago, the median home sale price jumped 18 percent to $2.26 million. And as buyers clamored to purchase properties amidst low inventory, average marketing times declined markedly to just 5.7 months. Pricing metrics were largely steady, while aforementioned inventory levels were approximately 55 percent lower than one year ago.
(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS
3
NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights
BY JEN ALLEN
LAND & COMMERCIAL SALES SUMMARY STRENGTH ACROSS PROPERTY TYPES IN 2021
2021
Transactions
% Change
5 Year Avg (2017–21)
29
8
263% d
16
$38,790,511
$13,687,750
183% d
$21,673,738
Avg. Selling Price
$1,337,604
$1,710,969
-22% d
$1,278,806
Median Selling Price
$1,100,000
$1,060,375
4% d
$965,625
8.1
3.4
137% d
7.4
Avg. Price as % of Last Ask
96%
99%
-3 f
94%
Avg. Price as % of Original Ask
95%
98%
-3 f
92%
170%
129%
41 d
136%
Total Sales Dollar Volume
Avg. Months on Market
Avg. Price as % of Assessed Value
MAR 21
2020
•
Thanks largely to several new subdivisions (Cannonbury Lane, Grey Lady Lane, Woodland Hill and Sandpiper Place) vacant land sales also enjoyed an exceptional start to the year. Through March 31, 2021, 29 vacant land transactions totaling $38.7 million took place. This compares to just eight transactions totaling $13.7 million in 2020 and 16 transactions totaling $21.7 million for the five-year average. Given that two of these subdivisions still have a healthy amount of inventory remaining, we anticipate land sales will continue to be active throughout the year. We also suspect values will follow a similar trajectory as demand outweighs supply. For example, lot price appreciation in the Cannonbury Lane development has been quite impressive.
•
As we touched on in last month’s report, the commercial segment of our market has also seen quite a turnaround. Through March 31, 2021, there were 11 commercial transactions totaling $24.2 million. Sales have quadrupled since this time last year and are double the number of sales for the five-year, first quarter average. As of the end of the first quarter, there were 12 commercial properties listed for sale. And with more clarity on the economic front than one year ago, we suspect this segment of the market will continue to do well.
(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS
4
NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights
BY JEN ALLEN
INVENTORY LEVELS BY PRICE POINT
MAR 21
RAPID DECLINE IN $1M TO $2M INVENTORY
•
As of March 31, 2021, total inventory for all Nantucket property types (residential, land and commercial properties) totaled 132 properties compared to 274 properties one year ago and 284 properties in 2019.
•
In looking at the three-year history of single-family listings by price point as of March 31 each year, it’s no surprise that nearly every price point (aside from $8M-$9M) saw a notable decline in available inventory. One of the most significant declines in the last three years has been for properties listed between $1 million and $2 million where listings measured 64 properties at this time in 2019 but just 13 properties a few weeks ago. This remarkable reduction in for-sale property explains why this price point has seen an incredible amount of appreciation in the last two years. It is traditionally one of the most sought-after price points (as measured by total activity) and inventory is at an all-time low. Several other price points have also seen a dramatic reduction in inventory which explains why we are seeing so many multiple-bid situations and also many off-market transactions, wherein properties aren’t even hitting the MLS before they sell.
(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS
5
NANTUCKET REAL ESTATE Market Insights
BY JEN ALLEN
HISTORICAL COMPARISON OF CONTRACT ACTIVITY
MAR 21
POISED FOR A BIG SECOND QUARTER
# of Contracts •
Continuing the record-setting trend dialogue, first quarter new purchase activity was also remarkable. In total, there were 138 Offers and Purchase and Sale agreements recorded (duplicates excluded). Though each month during the first quarter saw roughly the same number of contracts (42, 46 & 50 respectively), each month saw slightly more momentum than the last. This paints a nice picture for where the market is headed in the second and third quarters of this year.
•
Most of the first quarter contracts, 48 percent, were for properties last priced between $1 million and $2 million, up from the 29 percent for this segment in 1Q20, and another reason why we may continue to see solid appreciation in this price range. New contract activity for the $2 million to $3 million price point declined from 26 percent of new contracts one year ago to just 16 percent in 1Q21. For the upper end of the market, every price point (with the exception of $6M-$7M) saw one to four more transactions that during this time in 2020. There were no new contracts for properties listed above $9 million, similar to historic trends.
(508) 228–4407 21 MAIN STREET, NANTUCKET, MASSACHUSETTS
6