5 minute read
Martin Jaffa
BY DR MARTIN JAFFA
Fishy statistics
Has the pandemic reversed the long decline in fresh fi sh consumption?
Anew report commissioned by the Alaskan Seafood Marke� ng Ins� tute (ASMI) would seem to suggest that home consump� on of fi sh and seafood has risen during the ongoing pandemic. They believe that this has been fuelled by a move away from red meat in search of healthier forms of protein. The survey of US consumers found that 26% bought seafood for the fi rst � me, whilst about 35% have upped their seafood consump� on from pre-pandemic levels. ASMI say that consumers are now enjoying seafood at home once a week and if they have not already increased consump� on, they plan to do so during 2021.
ASMI found that 48% of consumers are trying to ac� vely increase their consump� on of fi sh and seafood, whereas only 23% say the same for beef. By comparison, 26% of consumers say that they are trying to reduce the amount of beef they eat whilst the number is just 7% for fi sh and seafood.
I have to admit that I am always a li� le scep� cal of surveys about fi sh and seafood consump� on, and even more so when the survey has been commissioned by a marke� ng group. My experience is that what consumers say and what consumers do are two very diff erent things.
Rather than reply on how consumers respond, I am more interested in whether fi sh and seafood sales have increased or decreased as a consequence of any campaign or event. And in terms of “event”, there can be none bigger than the Covid-19 pandemic.
ASMI do not say by how much fi sh and seafood consump� on has increased in the US during Covid, but I have been tracking the sales of chilled seafood in the UK since the pandemic hit. This is mainly fresh and chilled fi sh from the major retailers, although the fi gures are likely to include some coated chilled fi sh and fi shcakes.
Un� l the pandemic, sales of chilled fi sh for home consump� on had been in decline for most of the last decade. Average consump� on per person had fallen by the equivalent of about ten por� ons of fi sh a year and the likelihood was that this decline would con� nue, as refl ected by the closures of many supermarket fi sh counters in recent years due to a lack of consumer demand.
However, such forecasts were blown apart by the arrival of Covid-19. The change in chilled fi sh purchases from February to March 2020 was 0.1% but in April sales jumped by a massive 21.7%. This was when the supermarkets suff ered an onslaught of consumer demand, led notably by an unprecedented need to buy toilet roll. How the increased sale of chilled fi sh translated into the wider stockpiling of food and housewares is unclear. Either, like ASMI’s fi ndings, there was a surge of new consumers buying fi sh for the fi rst � me, possibly because they couldn’t buy other proteins because they had sold out, or more likely, exis� ng consumers stocked up with more fi sh for home freezing.
Whilst forms of lockdown con� nued for many more months, there has never been a repeat of the April sales surge. In fact, sales have grown by around 1% month on month or less ever since. There were excep� ons around Christmas and Easter but even the growth on these occasions has been rela� vely insignifi cant.
It does not appear that this small growth is the result of new consumers star� ng to buy fi sh. Instead, I suspect that these small increases in sales volume are due to promo� onal ac� vity in the retail sector. A� er the ini� al uncertainty of Covid and lockdown, supermarkets returned to their normal promo� onal ac� vity. For example, at the Above: A tradi� onal fi sh counter Left: Panic buying at the start of the pandemic
end of this June, Morrison’s had discounted whole salmon by £2/kg down to £6/kg. Tesco’s were off ering salmon sides at £12.70/kg saving £2.kg. Asda had a saving of 70p on their half salmon side (500g), priced at £6.50 and Sainsbury’s had new Mowi brand salmon packs (230g) on sale at £4, a saving of 50p per pack. Off ers on cod, sea bass and other species were also available.
The ques� on is as we come out of Covid, what will happen to fi sh and seafood sales? Certainly, ASMI are op� mis� c that US consumers are turning from beef to fi sh in search of a healthier diet. I am not so sure that the same will be said across this side of the Atlan� c. There has been some expecta� on that increased online shopping will boost fi sh sales and that the current trends will con� nue. I do hope that this will be the case, but I am not convinced.
I think we will see that as we return to ea� ng out, interest in home cooking will diminish and the recent increased growth might stall. I don’t see anything in the retail sector that will persuade consumers to eat more fi sh at home.
What is more worrying is that the people who bought more fi sh in April 2020 were likely to be older consumers who were exis� ng fi sh consumers and were familiar with ea� ng a wider range of fi sh species. By comparison, younger consumers are more likely to be persuaded by the vegan and plant-based diets being promoted widely as favourable to the environment. If these younger consumers turn to plant-based diets, then who, in the future, will be ea� ng our fi sh? FF
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