ECO-VIEWPOINT

Hydrogen Mobility Ireland (HMI) is a Not-for Profit organisation with members across the Power Generation, Fuel, Gas, Vehicle and Transport Sectors that is focused on the roll-out of Hydrogen as a viable Zero-emissions Transport fuel, particularly for the Heavy Vehicle Sector. HMI has been actively engaged in direct consultations with significant operators in the Transport Sector through its Vehicle End-user Group, giving us input into the potential needs of Transport Operators on the ground and seeking their views on Hydrogen as an option for the sector.

Emissions from Transport are the second largest after Agriculture, and the second largest energy related emissions after industry. But that shouldn’t be surprising – Transport includes leisure driving, but also commuting to work in each of the other sectors as well as deliveries and collections for them. While these emissions fall under the Transport Sector, there are other factors:

n Transport emissions result directly from the level of activity in other sectors - in 2017, the greatest share of freight activity was carriage of foodstuffs (25%).

n Responsibility for reducing Freight Transport emissions at least partly rests with enterprises for which Transport is provided.

n Transport users may need to be incentivised to demand Zero emissions logistics and see a downside to not making that transition. At present cheaper options may be more rewarding.

The challenge for the State is to support a transition in Transport that delivers for the Environment yet ensures a vibrant commercial economy into the future. Freight Transport in Ireland is amongst the most road-based in Europe. Only 0.9% of freight is carried by rail. As of the end of 2019, 99.7% of goods vehicles were diesel powered.

Ireland has set ambitious emissions targets to achieve an average 7% annual reduction in greenhouse gas emissions over the years 2021-2030, a projected reduction of 51% over the decade. It’s hard to see how a reduction of that scale can be achieved in Heavy Transport without good progress in the roll-out of Zero Emission vehicles early and over the period up to 2030. For the heavier high mileage vehicles that means Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (HFCEV).

With a target of having 1 million BEVs by 2030, Ireland had only 8,500 BEV cars on the road at the end of 2019 and around 17,000 up to the end of May 2021. In a fleet of 2.2 m cars those BEVs give an annual saving of around 30,000 Tonnes of CO2. One could estimate a similar level of saving from about 350 high mileage HGVs and Coaches, a sector in which we have made no progress yet, but Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles can deliver a significant part of the required 51% saving before 2030.

If we are to seriously reduce emissions from the highest polluting vehicles on the road then we need to have a specific strategy for heavy duty vehicles that travel long distances. Furthermore, it needs us to start now if we are to get anywhere close to meeting those targets.

That’s the space where HMI is working: Members in Energy Production, Distribution, Vehicles and Transport have brought a particular focus on HGVs as part of Project HMI. It has developed a Roadmap required to deliver a Hydrogen Fuel Cell solution for Ireland focused on Renewable Energy, but more of that later.

There are many opinions about whether HFCEVs or BEVs provide the better solution. In our view they are complimentary, supporting solutions rather than competing ones - we need both. And while we take the view that distance travelled is not the only benchmark, it is a good place to start.

The Independent Energy Agency and Transport & Environment believe that daily distances driven are the likely deciding factor and by 2050 they see two-thirds EV and one-third HFCEV, with Fuel Cell vehicles dominating on the longer journeys. Their current projections based on cost etc. suggest that FCEVs take over at around 480 kms a day.

Much of the data on HGVs shows average mileage isn’t enough to calculate potential take-up or emissions savings. The Central Statistics Office shows an annual average of 22,407 kms for combined Heavy and Light Goods vehicles. Mileage recorded at Roadworthiness Test intervals gives more detail, indicating an average of over 48,000 km for 2-Axle HGVs and over 73,000 km for 3-Axle HGVs. Among vehicles that have recorded over 100,000 kms per year are around 5,000 HGVs, 700 LGVs and 700 Buses/ Coaches. But of course there are many more vehicles below that annual mileage that are regularly required to travel more than 480 kms in a day, that’s roughly Dublin-Cork return.

HMI established an end-user Group of Vehicle Operators to consult about sustainable solutions, and to make decisions on which zero-emitting vehicles are most suited to their needs. The Group includes significant Freight Operators covering National and International routes, as well as Bus/Coach and Taxi Groups including representatives from their National Representative Bodies.

Hydrogen trucks: An opportunity for the decarbonisation of heavy vehicles

by Alan Nolan, Hydrogen Mobility Ireland

This isn’t an easy time for the Transport Sector with Covid-19, Brexit and facing the need to decarbonise, combined with huge pressures on price from their customers and the urgency of just-in-time deliveries. With few ZEV options yet available to them in the marketplace, there are concerns amongst operators looking to renew their fleets; will newly-purchased cleaner diesel trucks be penalised at some point between now and 2030? Will other lower emissions (but not zero) options be similarly disadvantaged and how will their future vehicle values stack-up? While this won’t stop necessary fleet renewal it may act to slow it at a time when we urgently need to reduce emissions. To look at what’s happening out there, new HGV registrations have fallen by 31% from 2016 to 2020, while used HGVs imported from the UK have increased by 66% over the same period. So far this year, new HVGs have increased by 23%, while used vehicles increased by 77%.

The challenge to decarbonise the HGV fleet is a big one: according to Department of Transport data, there are 40,000 HGVs and no ZEVs listed.

Sustainable Energy Agency Ireland (SEAI) states that the HGV fleet is ageing, with vehicles 10 years or older accounting for 45% of all vehicles. If a transition to cleaner ones doesn’t occur there is a considerable risk of ‘locking-in’ a large cohort of HGVs to diesel for years to come. At the same time, it projects that HGV activity is expected to treble between 2015 and 2050.

The speed of replacement of vehicles in the National Fleet is driven by Annual New Registration levels. Between 2016 and 2020, first-time registrations in Ireland have added an average of 6,000 HGV vehicles per year, which would suggest that the fleet could be replaced in 7 to 8 years. But on average only 2,500 of those are new HGVs, and last year it was just 2,000 new HGVs. With 2,000 new HGVs per annum, replacing the fleet would take 20 years.

The speed of replacement by ZEVs depends on the percentage of ZEVs sold each year in that annual figure of 2,000 (or the 6,000 figure!). At an annual rate for ZEVs of 6.5% of the 2,500 new HGVs, it would take over 200 years to replace the fleet. We need to start higher – 33% of 2,500 would still take almost 50 years. 33% of the 6,000 combined new and used registrations would do it in 20 years and half of the fleet could be replaced in 10 years (remember that 51% reduction by 2030). In reality the progress of ZEVs won’t be a linear average but will start low and move more quickly once the benefits and usability are experienced and will eventually hit very high percentages. But averages over a period give an idea of numbers so if it was possible to average 50% ZEVs (out of 6,000 registrations) over 13 or 14 years you could in theory replace the entire fleet by 2035.

SEAI also highlighted that for HGVs, their greater size and weight substantially increases the barriers to batteries serving as a substitute for diesel.

The deployment of alternative fuels and the vehicles that use them requires support in market uptake of vehicles; adequate access to refuelling infrastructure, and availability of fuel.

The production of Green Hydrogen from renewable energy is going to see rapid development over the next two years, with two plants in the West of Ireland close to planning submission, others on the way and ESB’s announcement of a 1.4 GigaWatt offshore wind farm with excess energy used to produce hydrogen. For these producers, the availability of Hydrogen Vehicles is crucial in order to have customers using their product. This is particularly so at the early stages of production, as larger potential Industrial and Energy customers are likely to take some time after production has started to change-over their systems to Hydrogen.

In relation to HGVs, positive feedback from end-users, who are the potential buyers and users of ZEVs, has been supported by early indications from a Survey by DCU of Transport Operators, showing that there is significant interest in Hydrogen (the greatest interest among respondents), as a HGV solution. 49% of respondents were interested in being directly involved in a potential shared project to aggregate orders to enable a significant number of hydrogen trucks to be brought to Ireland as early as possible. That’s a key message understood by the sector; the earlier we start the sooner we can see emissions reducing, and the sooner vehicle replacement can become more stable and certain.

For transport operators, cost and reliability are key issues: yet they are interested in an unknown technology, perhaps from a not previously known manufacturer with no previous service and support presence in HGVs in Ireland. Obviously they are hard-nosed business people and will want to be reassured on many issues, but key among them are the available range, and the ease and speed of refuelling so that concerns about the potential for major delay problems with the double challenge of Driver Statutory Rest Periods and recharging times can be allayed. On paper these might fit neatly together at the same time: the reality on the road is unlikely to be that consistently generous.

Is Ireland a potential market for Hydrogen Trucks? Absolutely and we hope to begin work now with our Vehicle-End-user Group, engaging with OEMs on vehicles and, hopefully with State support, start to build a project and by aggregating demand of various users see how many HFCEV vehicles we can bring here. This is a chance to make a significant start on decarbonising HGVs and a relatively speedy delivery of emissions savings. If we can replace even 400 high mileage HGVs in our focused project the emissions saved would be equivalent to about 20,000 BEV cars. The cost in likely State supports would be significantly lower and would also be delivering a viable infrastructure to support far greater emissions saving into the future.

A refuelling infrastructure necessary to support enough Hydrogen HGVs to deliver a significant emissions reduction is crucial. It is planned to start with a hub around Dublin to support initial vehicles but in order to make this a viable alternative to diesel in the HGV Sector, we must have a plan to deliver a national level of coverage so that zero emissions trucks can work and deliver on time. Refuelling at depots may be possible at high transport locations (such as dairy plants or ports) but if we are to normalise a zero emissions fuel for the sector as we go forward, we need a network accessible to all users. Refuelling locations on the network need to be strategically located near large use areas, larger cities but also giving coverage in regions so that no areas are disadvantaged. The Ten-T Network is likely to require Hydrogen availability for EU trucks so it possibly may be the backbone of the network.

Emissions from Transport are the second largest after Agriculture, and the second largest energy related emissions after industry