Fleet World October 2017 - Fuelling Change Supplement

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OCTOBER 2017

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ALEX GRANT EDITOR

CONTENTS THE POWER OF CHOICE t’s become a debate no fleet can ignore. Within the timeframe of a typical three-year vehicle lifecycle, what had been a steadily-progressing discussion about petrol, diesel and electrified drivetrains has turned on its head, raising more questions than answers about the right route ahead.

When today’s freshly-defleeted vehicles first met the road, the Volkswagen scandal was still a year away, taxation was moving steadily towards diesel and petrol parity as Euro 6 emissions standards approached, and concerns about air quality were only just starting to climb up the political agenda.

Today, against a backdrop of increasing electrification, consumer scepticism about diesel, new test cycles and shifting demand, not to mention tax reforms and potentially inconsistent clean air zones looming, that pace of change isn’t slowing any time soon.

So, with the help of experts across the automotive and fleet industries, this guide sets out to explain how your business can prepare for the challenges ahead. And, with an unprecedented range of technologies at your disposal, the solution to your drivers’ needs may be a better fit than ever.

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OCTOBER 2017

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PUBLICATION

Stag Publications Ltd, 18 Alban Park, Hatfield Road, St Albans, Herts, AL4 0JJ tel +44 (0)1727 739160 fax +44 (0)1727 739169 email info@fleetworldgroup.co.uk web fleetworld.co.uk

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FROM KYOTO TO PARIS: THE LEGISLATIVE BACKGROUND

PICKING THE RIGHT FUEL BLEND FOR YOUR FLEET

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DIESEL: A TIMEBOMB FOR FLEETS?

HOW EFFECTIVE ROUTE PLANNING CAN CUT COSTS

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PLAYING THE LONG GAME WITH PETROL

WHERE NEXT FOR COMMERCIAL VEHICLES?

41 20 AIR QUALITY MYTHS DISPELLED

MPG marathon

24 ECO TIPS FROM MPG MARATHON WINNERS

THE GLOBAL TRENDS SET TO REDEFINE THE MARKET

FUELLING CHANGE

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II LEGISLATION II

A TALE OF THREE REGIONS: As the Kyoto Protocol which pushed global warming up the political agenda turns 20, Alex Grant compares three of the world’s largest car-producing regions to find out how the industry got where it is today.

EUROPE The European Commission joined the Protocol as a bloc, though Member States set rules individually. In the UK, plans to reform vehicle tax were outlined in the 2000 Budget, said to be aimed at encouraging drivers to buy lower-emission vehicles, and manufacturers to develop and build them. That reformed system came into force in 2002, basing Vehicle Excise Duty, company car tax and National Insurance contributions on CO2 emissions.

It was well-timed. Diesel engines were becoming less agricultural, and incentives quickly encouraged a move away from petrol. Data from ACEA shows the UK’s diesel share doubled, from 17.8% to 36.8% of new cars, between 2001 and 2005, and by 2011 it had passed 50% of registrations. In 2005, HMRC estimated that tax reforms had cut the UK’s average CO2 emission figure for new cars by 15g/km. And that’s continued; SMMT data shows CO2 emissions for new cars have dropped significantly from 2001’s 177.6g/km average, to 120.6g/km in 2016.

Quiet and fuel-efficient diesels, such as Volkswagen’s ‘Pumpe düse’ units, helped drive demand in Europe.

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This was mirrored across Europe, with tax reforms at the start of the new millennium tending to favour lowerCO2 diesel vehicles, including per litre of fuel at the forecourt (aside from the UK). Euro emissions standards helped keep them competitive, with much higher NOx limits allowed for diesel vehicles enabling them to avoid costly after-treatment systems – though Euro 6 narrows that gap. From a 36.7% share of the EU15’s new car market in 2001, diesel had reached a 49.8% share by 2005 and has been the region’s most popular fuel most years since 2006.

Questions about air quality aren’t new though. HMRC’s 2005 study expressed concerns about nitrous oxides from the increased take-up of diesel vehicles, and said the move to Euro 4 emission standards in 2006 would cure it.

In the end, the 3% Benefit-in-Kind surcharge for diesels wasn’t dropped as the new standards came into force, and the post-‘Dieselgate’ fallout means it’s still in place today.

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: FROM KYOTO TO PARIS WHERE IT ALL BEGAN: THE KYOTO PROTOCOL (1997) It might not have seemed so at first, but the United Nations’ Kyoto Protocol would become an industry-defining document for the automotive sector. A recognition that 150 years of industrial activity had been responsible for man-made climate change, setting CO2 reduction targets (compared to a 1990 benchmark) of 12.5% between 2008 and 2012, and a further 18% before 2020, weighted towards developed nations and documented by precise records. Transport, a large-scale contributor of CO2 emissions, would have to play a part in that process.

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Changes of government between 1997 and 2001 meant the US never ratified the Kyoto Protocol. But, while it’s a country known for large cars and cheap fuel, the environmental impact of the motor industry hasn’t gone unnoticed.

As far back as the Clean Air Acts of the 1970s, the focus has been on local air quality and limits on harmful emissions are stricter than Europe. These have driven earlier adoption of unleaded petrol and catalytic converters and, as they are the same for petrol and diesel, it’s prevented the latter from having any significant market share. Emission control systems also have to work for 15 years and 150,000 miles – in Europe, the requirement is five years, and 100,000 miles.

This doesn’t let carmakers off the hook as far as fuel

consumption (and thus CO2 emissions). Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards, enacted in 1975, have set financial penalties for cars that don’t meet economy targets, and since 2011 that’s also looked at vehicle size. It means smaller cars have to be even more efficient than they would have had to have been beforehand. According to National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) data, the 2016 new car average was 41.1mpg (34.0mpg U.S.).

Diesels are outsold by hybrids, though both are incentivised. The technology required for EU6 – albeit used before it became mandatory in Europe – also enabled some manufacturers to sell compliant diesels in the U.S. These qualify for federal tax credits like other ‘low emission’ vehicles, including hybrid, electric, plug-in hybrid, fuel cell electric and gas-powered models.

America may be known for gas guzzlers and cheap fuel, but its emissions limits are tighter than in Europe.

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II LEGISLATION II

JAPAN The Japanese government had committed to strict limits of nitrogen oxides from passenger cars, trucks and buses, passing its own law five years before it signed the Kyoto Protocol. This was widened in 2001 to include particulate matter, and diesel vehicles have been in decline since the mid-1990s as a result. The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport reports a 1.6% share of new cars in 2016.

Instead, the government backed hybrid technology early. The first-generation Toyota Prius went on sale the day before the Kyoto Protocol was signed, arriving in time to take advantage of new purchase and tax subsidies for electric, hybrid and methanol-powered vehicles introduced the following year. Japan’s government has since set progressively higher sales targets for them, and subsidises manufacturers building clean vehicles. While

that includes diesel engines, these have had to meet NOx limits equivalent to Euro 6 since 2009.

Ironically, it’s given Japanese manufacturers a head start that’s becoming useful elsewhere. Electrification is a core competency, Toyota and Honda were early with hybrids in the late 1990s, Nissan’s LEAF and Mitsubishi’s Outlander PHEV are both spearheads of plug-in sales, and all carmakers there offer at least hybridisation within their ranges to save fuel. Despite advances in Europe, a study by Dr Eckard Helmers of Trier University and Michel Cames of the University of Luxembourg last year showed average new car CO2 emissions in Japan have been lower since 2013, based on data from each region’s fuel economy test cycle. Playing the long game may be about to pay dividends.

From oddity to household name – Toyota’s 10 million global hybrid sales began with the first-generation Prius in 1997.

WHERE NEXT? The conversation may have shifted towards air quality in the wake of the Volkswagen emissions scandal, but that hasn’t lessened the importance of curbing CO2 emissions. Only three of the world’s governments haven’t signed the 2015 Paris Accord, which sets a 2.0°C limit for rises in global temperature (though 1.5°C is ideal) by 2050. That’s a much widerranging target than the Kyoto Protocol.

Clearly that will require further changes to vehicle technology. The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) consortium has warned that global fuel economy standards need to double by 2030, and that the last petrol or diesel car would have to be sold no later than 2035 to stay on target. Even then, the shift would require complete decarbonisation of the electrical grid, it added. Two decades post-Kyoto, the pace of change looks unlikely to slow down any time soon.

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FUEL AND MILEAGE DATA

PETROL, DIESEL OR HYBRID? Complete and accurate mileage and fuel data is the key to obtaining robust information on which to make decisions about your fleet.

Rather than having drivers jump blindly from diesel to petrol, for instance, you can use your own fleet data to obtain each vehicle’s performance in terms of mpg and emissions in the real world. Use this enriched Whole Life Cost information to steer your fleet strategy and drive drivers' choices and behaviours.

The answer is in your own fleet data

For example, you can use the data to: ● Identify whether diesel, petrol, hybrid or EV is most appropriate (or possible) in any given situation.

In short, TMC’s service reduces admin, increases visibility and delivers significant cost savings. On average our customers save 18.06 pence per litre.

● Make confident decisions on choices lists based on how vehicles perform in your fleet. ● Identify drivers who achieve high mpgs. Hold

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up their results as best practice and encourage

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● Identify driver training needs

www.themilesconsultancy.com/whitepapers/realworld-fuel-data

Using real world data from your fleet will give you realistic expectations when it comes to deploying a blend of fuel types and enables you to assess their performance once they are up and running.

Complete, accurate data is at the heart of all of this. TMC collates and audits every single business journey your drivers make. We overlay this mileage data on to feeds from multiple telematics and fuel card providers to create a wealth of informationdriven benefits for your fleet.

As well as providing you with in-depth reporting and analysis to support policy decisions, we ensure mileage claims are accurate and dramatically reduce the level of administration around reimbursing fuel expenses.

Talk to us about how your business can benefit by working with TMC. Contact us at reply@themilesconsultancy.com or on 01270 525 218.

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II A TIME BOMB FOR FLEETS II

DIESEL A TICKING TIMEBOMB? With reams of negative press and looming tax burdens, diesel has never been so unpopular. But is it really time for fleets to abandon the fuel? Julian Kirk reports.

Image: Lex Autolease

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CAST your mind back to 2001... MG relaunches as a car maker, the foot and mouth crisis takes hold, the September 11 attacks on the US. And, of course, the dash for diesel – fuelled by the government’s view that low CO2 emissions were the panacea for our climate change woes.

Fast forward 16 years and the world is a different place… especially for diesel which is now increasingly portayed as a pariah responsible for our smoggy, polluted cities and legions of patients with debilitating respiratory problems thanks to its emissions of particulates and NOx. Obviously, the fleet market is facing huge uncertainty surrounding the fuel – especially as it buys the lion’s share of diesels sold in the UK. But is diesel dead as a fuel for fleets?

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FIT FOR PURPOSE Not at all, says ACFO chairman John Pryor: “Fleets nowadays have a much wider choice of fuels than ever before, so more thought needs to go in to understanding what vehicles to choose. No longer is it a case of ‘one size fits all’ – it’s all about having a fleet that is fit for purpose.”

Pryor obviously advocates learning from peers via ACFO, but stresses the view that there is so much to be taken into account other than cost – environmental issues and staff welfare are also key.

Fit for purpose is an issue identified by the BVRLA when it comes to fleet composition. Chief executive Gerry Keaney points to the fact that around 99% of the country’s 4.4 million commercial vehicles are diesel-powered. He adds: “For as long as there is no other suitable cost-effective and practical alternative on the market, diesel powertrains will continue to be play a vital role for transporting goods and people around the UK. “Diesel is also playing a critical role in reducing CO2 emissions to help meet the government’s climate change targets with diesel cars emitting, on average, 20% lower CO2 than its petrol equivalents.”

Keaney echoes Pryor’s view that fleet choice today is not just about choosing one type of vehicle for all staff. He adds: “CO2, NOx and MPG are all considerations for fleet operators looking at total cost of motoring. Staff doing lots of motorway driving and travelling long distances will benefit from diesel, whereas this may not be the best solution for somebody doing short local journeys in busy or congested areas.

“Central London is implementing its Ultra Low Emission Zone in 2019/20 and has ambitious plans of being emissionfree by 2025. Birmingham, Leeds, Derby, Nottingham and Southampton are all set to have Clean Air Zones by 2020. People and businesses living and working in or around Clean Air Zones will be looking for cost-effective and practical transport solutions and the fleet mix must be able to deliver that.”

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II A TIME BOMB FOR FLEETS II

EVOLVING TAXATION Perhaps an issue which will shift values further will be how the Government decides to treat diesel vehicles in terms of taxation. A regime which disincentivises people from choosing diesel will obviously hit sales and, in time, used values.

The government has rather obliquely warned that “it will continue to explore the appropriate tax treatment for diesel vehicles and will engage with stakeholders ahead of making any tax changes at Autumn Budget 2017”. While we’ll have to wait and see the exact details, what is clear is that the government wants to reduce the number of diesel vehicles and it is looking at all avenues to tax them off the road – company car tax, VED, National Insurance Contributions, Writing Down Allowances…

Writing in his Fleet World column in July, Professor Colin Tourick said: “What-

ever changes the government introduces we can be sure they will still be committed to reducing CO2. The need to reduce global warming isn’t going to go away, so the safe bet is to look for low-CO2 alternatives to diesel-engined vehicles.”

He advocates investigating smallerengined petrol cars, hybrids and plugin electric vehicles.

Tourick concludes: “This sort of analysis is valuable at any time but could be particularly valuable now that we know the Government has diesel in its crosshairs. Looking at your attitude to diesel now could make a lot of sense.”

THE RV IMPACT Industry figures are divided on the impact on residual values of diesels in the wake of the negative publicity surrounding the fuel.

ACFO’s Pryor thinks it is too early to see much in the way of a depression in values; a view echoed by the BVRLA’s Keaney: “There have been no market indicators to suggest that residual values for diesel vehicles have fallen. The concern about diesel is centred around older diesel vehicles which do not meet required emission standards in towns and cities introducing Clean Air Zones.

“Fleet operators are typically purchasing on a three-year cycle, so diesel vehicles in fleets tend to be newer and cleaner. Market demand for those vehicles remains positive.”

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Diesel RVs will continue to vary by segment, reckons Cap HPI’s James Dower.

Cap HPI’s senior Black Book editor, James Dower agrees, citing larger diesel SUVs, upper-medium and executive cars as being likely to continue to be a more attractive proposition than their petrol equivalents, in most cases.

He adds: “Continual press reports painting diesel in a negative light appear to be having an effect on buyer behaviour. Much of the negative sentiment attached to diesel relates to older and less refined diesel power units.

The modern diesel is something of a different proposition and manufacturers have made significant investments in new engine and post-combustion technology to reduce NOx levels.

“The Cap HPI Gold Book forecast data, which looks at future values, shows values for typical three-year-old vehicles over the first half of 2017 have seen a slightly larger reduction for diesel vehicles than for petrol, a difference of -1.6%. Diesel values at 36/60 have depreciated by -6.4%, compared to a petrol car decrease of -4.8%.

“The average performance over the past five years would imply an overall depreciation of -4.7% over the same period. The difference is explained by a combination of reduced demand for diesel, together with increased supply from leasing returns.”

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II PLAYING THE LONG GAME WITH PETROL II

TIME FOR PETROL TO FIGHT BACK? Could the tables be about to turn in the fleet market after many years of diesel dominance? Chris Pickering investigates.

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WHILE diesel remains the mainstay of the British fleet market, recent events have not been kind to it. That’s starting to resonate with operators, too; SMMT figures have shown a 6% decline in the fuel’s market share among fleets so far this year. So could petrol be about to stage a comeback?

EMISSIONS CHALLENGES From a technical perspective, the two engine types are constrained by different challenges. Diesels are inherently more fuel efficient and produce less CO2. However, they also produce more oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and more soot. Historically, these problems were quite easy to overcome, but increasingly stringent emissions test requirements have made it a lot harder to achieve the required figures. Petrol engines, meanwhile, sit at the opposite end of the spectrum. Their fuel burns far more cleanly, meaning that NOx and soot are rarely major issues. On the other hand, their fuel consumption and CO2 emissions are intrinsically higher.

Both problems can be solved, but the question is, which is easier to address? “Petrols face some challenges with regards to CO2, but you can overcome that, particularly with hybridisation,” comments Jon Hunt, marketing manager for Toyota and Lexus Fleet Services. “Diesels are slightly better for CO2, and you can clean up the emissions to a certain extent with aftertreatment systems, but at what cost? There comes a tipping point where it’s not economical, particularly in smaller cars.”

Technologies such as direct injection, variable valve timing and downsizing have all seen petrol engines take significant strides in efficiency, but it’s unlikely that they will ever overtake diesels on their own. As Hunt eludes, however, hybridisation might just tip the balance.

There’s evidence that this is already taking place. Realworld tests carried out by independent measurement firm Emissions Analytics show that petrol hybrid cars saves an average of 7.6mpg over comparable diesel cars in mixed use.

Even on an extra-urban route, which would traditionally favour diesels, the gap has all but disappeared, with hybrids less than 2mpg adrift on average (49mpg versus 50.9mpg).

In other words, a good hybrid could already be cheaper to fuel than an average diesel, even for high-mileage users.

MILD BUT MIGHTY One of the fastest-growing sectors at the moment is socalled mild hybrids. While the term is technically accurate, most consumers would not think of these cars as hybrids at all. In fact, the original 48-volt concept was more about beefing up the electrical system to cope with power-hungry accessories than it was about electric propulsion. They typically don’t offer any electric-only capability and the driving experience is much the same as a normal combustion-engined car.

Due to their limited power and energy storage requirements, however, 48-volt systems are far cheaper than full hybrids.

One supplier described it as ‘70% of the fuel economy benefit of a traditional hybrid system for 30% of the cost’. Many believe these will become a virtual prerequisite over the next

few years, with analysis firm UBS predicting that mild hybrids will comfortably outsell (non-hybrid) diesels by 2025.

Generally, it’s petrol engines that stand to gain most from the high-torque low-rpm assistance provided by an electric motor. They’re typically cheaper than diesels too, which helps to offset the cost of fitting a hybrid system.

But diesels are fighting back. Selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems are starting to become a common feature.

These mop up excess NOx when it reaches the exhaust, potentially allowing the engineers to pursue more aggressive efficiency-improvement strategies inside the engine.

Again, it all comes down to the cost of the various solutions.

An SCR system adds roughly the same amount to a car’s P11D value as a basic mild hybrid system, so there’s no foregone conclusion. The good news is that a recent study by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) concluded that these concepts are likely to result in fuel savings that amount to ‘two or three times the technology cost per vehicle’.

BALANCED SOLUTIONS As hybrids become more widely accepted, their residual values are strengthening, while diesel’s recent image problems are having quite the opposite effect. And then there’s taxation to consider. At present NOx has no direct impact on VED, BiK or employers’ NI contributions, but there’s no guarantee that will continue.

“Fleet operators will always be heavily influenced by legislation,” comments Sean Consadine, fleet director at the EDAM Group. “Governments and councils have the ability to almost dictate the kind of vehicles that are bought, through things like Clean Air Zones, taxation and parking restrictions. Ultimately though, we believe the petrol versus diesel argument will level out, and the incentives will be more for buying EVs and hybrids.”

John Pryor, chairman of the ACFO, says he foresees a mixture of powertrains in future, including a continuing role for diesel. “Best practice defines that company car choice lists are compiled based on individual vehicle total cost of ownership data,” he points out. “There is no single choice of fuel source to which fleets should default. Diesel is likely to remain the preferred choice for high-mileage motorway driving and where a large number of journeys are made in non-urban environments. Alternatively, a mix of motorway and urban driving is likely to lend itself to the petrol option, with plug-in hybrids, pure EVs and range extended vehicles for urban use.”

Peter Eldridge, director of the ICFM, concurs: “Our perspective is that ‘demonising’ any form of powertrain – diesel included – is not the right approach, since it will inevitably generate erratic decisions being taken when setting out the structure of a fleet policy. With a backdrop of about one in two new vehicle choices being diesel last year and Euro 6 emission diesels being available, diesel vehicles are by necessity part of the fleet solution.”

One thing is clear. Diesel’s status as the default choice for high-mileage fleets may be coming to an end, but it remains a competitive solution – at least from a technical perspective.

Beyond that, its fate will lie with the politicians.

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II AIR QUALITY MYTHS DISPELLED II

Up in the air With low-emission zones on the way, Craig Thomas finds out how manufacturers are cleaning up their combustion engines, and how effective those technologies are.

FROM a low-level discussion, concerns about air quality have risen to the top of the political agenda in recent years: bolstered by high-profile legal cases against the UK government and rising public awareness. And as DEFRA offers funding to enable local authorities to put plans in place to clean up urban air, it’s a discussion that isn’t going away any time soon.

The desire to reduce emissions, in the wake of the 1997

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Kyoto protocol, led to an incentivisation of diesel cars. This, however, has led to a rise in NOx emissions and particulate matter (PM) pollutants that some estimates suggest account for 40,000 deaths in the UK every year.

Although not the only cause of poor air quality, road-going vehicles are a major contributory factor, so automotive manufacturers are coming under pressure to clean up their act.

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Independent 'real-world' testing by Emissions Analytics has shown huge differences between different models.

The industry is addressing these concerns, as the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) suggested in its 2017 Automotive Sustainability Report: “The automotive industry recognises its part in the air quality challenge. It is investing billions of pounds to engineer and produce the cleanest, lowest emitting vehicles in history.”

The new Euro 6 diesel standard is seen by many in the industry as the silver bullet, but there is reason to be sceptical that it’s still not resulting in what could be described as ‘clean’ diesel. Cleaner, yes, but arguably not clean.

For example, a paper earlier this year from the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) found the average amount of NOx emissions from Euro 6 diesel cars is more than double the levels from Euro 6 trucks and buses. On average, NOx emissions from the heavy-duty vehicles that ICCT tested were approximately 210mg/km, compared to 500mg/km from Euro 6 diesel passenger cars tested under real-world driving conditions.

The author of the paper, ICCT researcher Rachel Muncrief, said: “The simple average difference in NOx emissions per kilometre between light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles is startling enough, but on a fuel-consumption basis, taking into account the higher engine load demands for trucks and buses, the NOx emissions of diesel cars are 10 times higher than the corresponding measurement values for heavy-duty vehicles.”

Admittedly, there are differences in regulation, with the official testing requirements of light-duty vehicles, at the time of the study, limited to laboratory measurements of carefully prepared prototype vehicles. Whether these differences will continue under the new Worldwide harmonized Light vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP), a process that is based on real-world driving data, remains to be seen.

“CARMAKERS ARE ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP TECHNOLOGIES THAT WILL NOT ONLY MEET CURRENT REGULATIONS, BUT FUTURE ONES, TOO.” Carmakers are, however, attempting to develop technologies that will not only meet current regulations, but future ones, too.

As Iain Gray, senior manager for powertrain advanced controls at Jaguar Land Rover, told us: “We’re looking forward. We’re looking at what the Euro 7 emissions standards are and at what we have to engineer for five, six, seven years down the line.

“We’re involved in the working groups and steering committees within the European Commission and we talk to our own government to understand what they’re thinking and make sure they’re making informed decisions.”

Volvo, as was widely reported earlier this year, is aiming to ensure that every new car it launches from 2019 will have an electric motor, as pure internal combustion engine (ICE) cars are gradually phased out and replaced by ICE cars that are enhanced by electrification or by fully electric vehicles.

Volvo is also undertaking developments of its powertrains, as Karin Thorn Almqvist, vice-president of vehicle propulsion engineering at Volvo Cars, told us: “Our current range of engines already use advanced injection, boosting, combustion and exhaust aftertreatment technologies, and we continue to refine our engines to make them even more efficient.

“In terms of reducing all types of harmful emissions, the main focus is on our new range of hybrid powertrains. Having a petrol or diesel engine that is supplemented by an electric motor will help us cut tailpipe emissions, and hence improve air quality.

“And, in time, every diesel engine we sell will be fitted with an electric motor, such as the 48-volt mild-hybrid system we are developing.”

Audi, meanwhile, is also working on a number of advances, some of which we’ll see in the forthcoming new A8. A new 3.0 TDI has been designed to form an integral part of the electrified ‘mild hybrid’ (MHEV) drivetrain, supported by a 48volt electrical system. The A8 TDI will also be able to ‘coast’ with the engine off, propelled only by momentum for up to 40 seconds, or to recuperate energy during deceleration, while the start-stop system is also able to cut engine power at speeds of up to 13mph to maximise emission-free movement during stopping phases.

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II AIR QUALITY MYTHS DISPELLED II

Hyundai is the first manufacturer to offer hybrid, plug-in hybrid, electric and fuel cell drivetrains in the same line-up.

Audi is also introducing a full-electric Audi e-tron SUV in 2018, which will be closely followed by two further EVs, plus an expansion of its plug-in PHEV range and MHEV drivetrains – with six-cylinder, eight-cylinder and 12-cylinder engines employing a system based around 48-volt circuitry – in more models.

Toyota is, perhaps unsurprisingly, betting the farm on hybrids in the short to medium term, with fuel cell seen as an objective further in the future. Its hybrid technology is the platform on which it is developing different powertrains to address different customer requirements.

A spokesperson told us: “Air quality is an important concern for carmakers, customers and regulators; hybrids already offer both low CO2 and NOx emissions, with performance improved with each generation of our technology.

“The number of vehicles we offer with diesel power has steadily reduced as we focus on developing petrol-electric hybrid power. We continue to offer diesel powertrains where there remains specific customer demand, and where the specific qualities of diesel power are best suited to the vehicle’s use – in Land Cruiser, Hilux and Proace, for example. The diesel engines we do offer comply with stringent emissions legislation to protect air quality.

“Toyota believes a future hydrogen-based society can deliver great environmental and social benefits, using hydrogen as a clean and plentiful means of producing elec-

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tricity – not just for powering vehicles but for homes and businesses, too.”

Hyundai is a carmaker that is taking a wider view than most carmakers, working to continuously improve the efficiency and performance of all of its vehicles, along with looking to electrification and fuel cell technologies. So in addition to recently introducing a new generation of turbocharged petrol engines, it is also launching a new generation of diesel engines in 2018 adapted to the new Euro 6c regulations. But it is also the first manufacturer worldwide to also offer hybrid, plugin hybrid, all-electric and fuel cell electric vehicles in its range, and is committed to introducing 14 alternative-fuel models globally by 2020, including five hybrid vehicles, four plug-in hybrids, four electric vehicles and an all-new fuel cell car.

So while the industry is promoting Euro 6 diesels as a major step towards better air quality – which they are – there are still improvements to be made. The hybridisation that carmakers are increasingly committed to, for example, will contribute to reducing the harmful emissions that are causing the problems in our cities.

Improving air quality is still a relatively new issue on the political agenda, so we can expect further legislation from local and national government, along with an expansion of the number of low-emissions zones in UK cities in the next decade.

The automotive industry will certainly have plenty of new targets to aim at, as shifting goalposts keep them on their toes.

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II DRIVING EFFICIENTLY II

MARATHON MEN From fleet managers and journalists, to rally drivers and engineers, the Fleet World MPG Marathon attracts a cross section of entries each year. So how have the event’s previous winners learnt to curb fuel consumption?

Fergal McGrath, Honda R&D Europe (UK) Ltd Plan your route and drive as smoothly as possible, with light acceleration and gentle braking, anticipating the traffic in advance. It is also possible to save a considerable amount of fuel by finding the optimum combination of gear selection, engine RPM, ever-changing road gradient and driving conditions – and driving in this ‘sweet spot’ as often as you can.

Relax, and you will start to enjoy driving more efficiently knowing that you are saving yourself money on fuel, while simultaneously lowering your impact on the environment in terms of reduced exhaust gas emissions.

Andy Dawson, Dawson Auto Developments Be gentle and pamper the car. I am forever being cut up by people on full throttle followed by brake lights. I often wonder whether they have shares in a brake pad manufacturer.

I ease a car along, looking ahead and watching what others are doing. When we achieved 109mpg in a Fiesta I touched the brakes five times in 360 miles – a bit extreme, but it makes the point. Poor MPG is poor energy management; brakes turn energy (from fuel) into heat.

Think about the accessories you are using; heaters use energy to warm the air, air conditioning uses energy to dry the air, open windows wreck the airflow over the car and increase the aerodynamic drag, but a slightly open sunroof or side window can reduce the drag.

I started this by saying pamper the car; using high octane petrol or max diesel makes the engine more efficient.

Modern ECUs learn, and set injection and ignition timing for the fuel that you are using and really do give an advantage if you are using more than just a little power. They take time to learn, so use one fuel and stick to it.

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Mick Linford, events specialist and former rally driver There is no special art to getting exceptional mpg figures. It really is just down to total concentration on what the car is doing and developing a ‘feel’ (through your back side!) for the engine characteristics.

Anyone can do it, but only if they have patience and are prepared to travel at a much more controlled pace than they normally do.

Every time you pull away, the throttle should be progressively depressed by the slightest amount to gradually ‘gain speed’ rather than accelerate until reaching your cruising speed. Changing gear at around (on average, on flat roads) 1,300rpm diesel or 1,800rpm petrol should be the norm. This applying to every gear change. But, the engine should never be allowed to labour! It will feel slow, but that’s the price you pay for getting the best mpg figures.

Keep use of the brakes to an absolute minimum. Descending hills, use little or preferably no throttle. Up hills, absolute minimum use of throttle to maintain pace, accepting some reduction in speed. Always maintain control of speed and plan ahead to avoid stopping whenever possible.

Try to limit use of power draining controls (A/C, headlights, blower etc), ensure tyre pressures are correct and no excess luggage in the boot. Practice, practice, practice and determination will bring you success.

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Paul Clifton, BBC Transport Correspondent for Southern England “You never match a manufacturer’s fantasy MPG claims in the real world.” I hear it all the time. Rubbish.

It’s a doddle.

The trick? Simple. Stay in the highest possible gear at the lowest possible speed for the longest possible time.

On the MPG Marathon, driver and co-driver should be like an old married couple, thinking as one. It takes total concentration over 400 miles. The top teams are all on the same level: the difference between winning and losing will be 1 or 2%.

My advice for everyday motoring? Make your driving decisions as far ahead as you can. Arrive at every junction at the right speed and in the right gear. You really can reach every traffic light as it turns green. You can find a big gap in the traffic at nearly every roundabout. Try not to stop. Accelerate gently.

Planning your moves, you should hardly need to brake.

Every car has a ‘sweet spot’. When you find it, stick to it. On diesels it tends to be around 1,200-1,500 revs in top gear. Petrol engines are a little higher.

No, I don’t drive like this all the time. I’m a BBC correspondent and I have deadlines to meet. I do a huge mileage. But I drive more efficiently than I did before. Not least because I’ve cut my own fuel costs by £2,000 a year. You can do a lot of other things with two thousand quid!

Andrew Andersz, PR Director, JJ Marketing We’re often told that to drive economically we need to drive slowly. No, we don’t! It’s not slow driving, it’s smart driving. We need to think about what we do and how we do it.

Think ahead by planning your route. Avoid town centres with their inherent risks of hold-ups by selecting a route that avoids potential delays. It may be five or 10 miles longer but will likely be quicker and use less fuel. Don’t rely on your sat nav.

Drive smoothly, accelerate gently and look ahead to avoid having to brake unnecessarily. Once you’ve got to a comfortable cruising speed lift slightly off the accelerator and unless there’s a slight incline or hill you should be able to maintain that speed but use less fuel.

Kevin Booker, IT Systems and Fleet, Brecon Beacons National Park Authority When choosing fleet vehicles it is important to consider the CO2 emissions and real-world fuel economy. This means testing the cars in our mountainous National Park terrain to see how they perform. Often small, efficient city cars are no longer as efficient when faced with the hilly landscape.

As a National Park, we're always looking for ways to reduce our impact on the environment that we care for. Ensuring that our vehicles are as efficient as possible is our priority; we're one of only two Go Ultra Low organisations in Wales and have recently made a commitment that 5% of our fleet will be electric by 2020.

Taking part in the MPG Marathon allows me to demonstrate my personal commitment to fuel efficiency. Watch the road ahead to anticipate rather than react and drive smoothly. These can be achieved by ensuring the car is in the correct gear to prevent over-revving or labouring of the engine and to gently decelerate rather than braking harshly at junctions and roundabouts. The condition of the vehicle is also important, it should be well maintained, ensuring tyre pressures are regularly checked.

MPG marathon

FUELLING CHANGE 25

£2,250 + £500 5.9% APR DEPOSIT CONTRIBUTION1

EXTRA IF YOU TEST DRIVE AND BUY BEFORE 16TH DECEMBER2

REPRESENTATIVE

The Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV is a different animal. It delivers an incredible 166mpg3, and its innovative petrol engine and twin electric motors offer ultra-low CO2 emissions and a combined range of up to 542 miles4 – making it a 4WD SUV that’s set to dominate for years to come. And with a government plug-in car grant of £2,5005, plus our generous deposit contribution1 and an extra £500 reward when you take a test drive and buy before 16th December2, the UK’s leading selling plug-in hybrid has never been easier to own. We call this Intelligent Motion.

Find out more. Search Outlander PHEV | Visit mitsubishi-cars.co.uk to find your nearest dealer

M43369 Q4 2017 Outlander PHEV Fleet World DPS 420x297.indd 1

29/09/2017 15:34

THE MITSUBISHI

OUTLANDER PHEV

IN A WORLD OF HYBRIDS, SOME FOLLOW, OTHERS LEAD

FROM £32,305 - £43,555 INCLUDING £2,500 GOVERNMENT PLUG-IN CAR GRANT5

WITH A 5 YEAR WARRANTY 6

1. £2,250 deposit contribution and 5.9% APR representative PCP finance on the Outlander PHEV range. No deposit required and available over 25-43 months. Credit is subject to status and only available for retail sales to UK residents aged 18 and over resident in Mainland UK and N. Ireland. This credit offer is only available through Shogun Finance Ltd, 116 Cockfosters Rd, Barnet, EN4 0DY. Shogun Finance Ltd is part of Lloyds Banking Group. Offer is subject to availability, whilst stocks last and may be amended or withdrawn at any time. Offer not available in conjunction with any other offer and is available between 28th September and 28th December 2017. 2. Additional £500 deposit contribution available with 5.9% APR representative PCP finance when test drive is taken and vehicle registered between 1st October and 16th December 2017.

3. Official EU MPG test figure shown as a guide for comparative purposes and is based on the vehicle being charged from mains electricity. This may not reflect real driving results. 4. Up to 33 mile EV range achieved with full battery charge. 542 miles achieved with combined full battery and petrol tank. Actual range will vary depending on driving style and road conditions.

5. On The Road prices shown include the Government Plug-in Car Grant and VAT (at 20%) and First Registration Fee. Model shown is a 17MY Outlander PHEV 4hs at £39,055 including the Government Plug-in Car Grant. On The Road prices for a 17MY Outlander PHEV range from £32,305 to £43,555 and include VED, First Registration Fee and the Government Plug-in Car Grant. Metallic/pearlescent paint extra. Prices correct at time of going to print. For more information about the Government Plug-in Car Grant please visit www.gov.uk/plug-in-car-van-grants. The Government Plug-in Car Grant is subject to change at any time, without prior notice. 6. All new Outlander PHEV variants come with a 5 year/62,500 mile warranty (whichever occurs first) and an 8 year/100,000 mile traction battery warranty. Fuel figures shown are official EU test figures, to be used as a guide for comparative purposes and may not reflect real driving results.

Outlander PHEV range fuel consumption in mpg (ltrs/100km): Full Battery Charge: no fuel used, Depleted Battery Charge: 51.4mpg (5.5), Weighted Average: 166.1mpg (1.7), CO2 emissions: 41 g/km.

M43369 Q4 2017 Outlander PHEV Fleet World DPS 420x297.indd 2

29/09/2017 15:35

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II FUEL FITNESS II

FUEL FOR THOUGHT A changing landscape of legislation and increasing environmental concerns means that it is more important than ever to consider which fuels work best for your fleet. By Julian Kirk.

WITH hybrid vehicles becoming so commonplace that they are now seen as the ‘third fuel’ by many in the industry, the days of simply choosing diesel for a fleet of company cars are limited.

Following around two decades of exposure to hybrid technology (thanks to the trail-blazing Toyota and Honda), and increasing new models from all major manufacturers, the technology really has reached a tipping point. And with secondgeneration electric vehicles also beginning to arrive, fleet managers are presented with more choice than ever before.

Faced with this brave new world, fleets needn’t feel daunted by the choice though – in fact, applying oldfashioned business logic is still the key to optimising fleet selection.

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THE GROWTH OF THE “ULEV” Lex Autolease has seen significant uptake of ultra-low emission vehicles (ULEVs) over the last two years – it now has 14,000 alternatively-fuelled vehicles on its fleet, including 10,000 plug-in hybrids, extended-range EVs and pure EVs. The expectation is for demand to be stimulated further as more models come to market and Clean Air Zones come to market, while plans from Whitehall to improve the charging infrastructure will mean pure electric and hybrid vehicles can operate more easily outside of urban areas.

Lex’s principal consultant, Chris Chandler, says: “When considering ULEV adoption, businesses will need to think carefully about the full life costs

Chris Chandler, Lex Autolease principal consultant.

when comparing to their traditionally fuelled counterparts. While there may be a higher upfront cost or rental rates for this new technology, companies should factor the tax benefits, reduced fuel costs and potentially lower maintenance into their decision-making to understand what the most cost-effective option is for their fleets.

“The current tax landscape for ULEVs is far from straightforward, though. The recently implemented changes to VED have actually removed

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Horses for courses: Driver adoption of ULEVs depends very much on the vehicle chosen and its intended everyday usage.

the cost benefit for all ULEVs except for zero-emission vehicles. However, the newly proposed rates for company car tax based on zero-emission range, which are set to come in for 2020-21, will drastically reduce the tax bill for the most efficient plug-in vehicles.

“The key for fleet decision-makers is to review all their current policies and vehicle choice lists, and identify where ultra-low emission fuel technologies could be used. By understanding the length of journeys and typical drive cycles that specific vehicles use, businesses can ensure they provide the most practical fuel choice for their vehicles and minimise cost and environmental impact.”

This latter point is picked up by Arval’s fleet consultant, David Watts: “The viability of PHEVs very much depends on driver behaviour. In a nutshell, drivers who charge at every opportunity will achieve a better overall MPG than those who don’t, and those who cover lots of short journeys will tend to get better overall results.

“It should also be noted that whole-life cost calculations for some of the newer fuel types, notably plug-in hybrid vehicles, are much more complex than for a conventional petrol or diesel vehicle.”

However, despite the complexity, Watts argues that the use of a wholelife cost approach that incorporates a fuel cost element will automatically ensure that the most cost-effective cars are chosen, irrespective of how they are powered. He added: “Measured using WLC, diesel still remains the automatic choice for many fleets. Fuel economy is strong, residuals are good, CO2 output is lower than petrol engines and general emissions for Euro 6 vehicles are, on paper at least, highly competitive.

“There is no disguising the fact that the market is showing increasing scepticism towards diesel, especially when it comes to reports about real-world emissions. It may be that corporate

image issues bound up with this turning tide of opinion, rather than operational considerations, will see their use reduce over time.”

CLOSING THE GAP Another issue which is impacting on diesel is the closing of the gap between it and plug-in hybrids in terms of total cost of ownership. Analysis from ALD generated using real-life fuel economy returns rather than manufacturer claimed figures shows a narrowing of the gap between petrol, diesel and plug-in hybrids.

The firm’s consultancy services manager, Matt Dale, says: “While PHEVs can be an attractive choice for employees due to the tax benefits, if they fail to regularly charge their vehicle, perhaps due to a lack of training or purely through bad habit, their employer will more than likely end up out of pocket.

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II FUEL FITNESS II

ULEV RVS PHEVs can be economical to run if they are used correctly, which only serves to highlight the importance of suitability, adequate training and driver buy-in. It also shows the value of telematics, which can be used to monitor MPG thereby providing an indication of how the car is being charged and allowing the employer to take action where necessary.

“For all fuel types, suitability really is key. If a driver has a relatively short commute to work, spends a lot of time in the office and has room at home for a home charger then a PHEV is likely to be an effective choice of vehicle for them, practically and from a cost perspective. However, if they don’t have room for a charger at home, they have to commute long distances and are rarely in the office, and therefore unable to charge their vehicle at work, then a PHEV may not be suitable.”

Energy Saving Trust fleet advice manager, Ian Featherstone believes the time is now right to start weaning businesses away from conventional petrol and diesel. He says: “Fleets should be planning their move to Ultra Low Emission Vehicles so they are well placed to take advantage of the latest vehicle technology as it becomes available.”

But this shouldn’t be a ‘knee-jerk reaction’, according to Glass’s UK car editor, Robert Redman. He likens the current situation to the dash for diesel back in 2001 when Benefit-in-Kind tax moved to a CO2-based system.

He says: “We are now facing a similar change as hybrids – both conventional and plug-in – are becoming mainstream and effectively a third fuel choice. The recent demonisation of diesel has prompted many to re-consider their choice of powertrain, but it is important that this is an educated decision and not a knee-jerk one based solely on what have been, in some cases, less than accurate media articles.

“The key to making the right choice is understanding the car’s anticipated usage, and taking into consideration all the associated costs.

“Adding up these various elements should give a good forecast of the likely cost of ownership over the period and enable a balanced comparison of the vehicles selected.”

30 FUELLING CHANGE

Matt Freeman, managing consultant, Cap HPI. MATT Freeman, managing consultant at Cap HPI, says fleets need to be working to ensure that they do not expose themselves by being reliant on diesel.

He says: “While we have not seen the collapse in diesel values predicted by the more pessimistic analysist, we are likely to see used buyers being more circumspect when it comes to used diesel vehicles, especially smaller cars. For high-mileage users, larger vehicles like SUVs and those planning to use a vehicle for towing, then diesel still and will still make sense. However, given the average vehicle in the UK is driven less than 8,000 miles per annum, diesel really does not make sense for most people.

“Therein lies the answer. Fleets need to be looking at where their vehicles are going after they dispose of them, considering the shape of demand in the used market. That means more petrol, especially where smaller (A-C segment) cars are concerned.

“Where newer technologies like hybrids, PHEVs and electric cars are concerned, things are less clear. Currently there is lots of support for the new buyer (fleet or private) such as incentives and tax breaks, but not the used marketplace.

However, fleets can start to think about targeting specific users in terms of used vehicles, such as taxi and private hire companies for hybrids and PHEVs to build a marketplace for these vehicles.”

This targeting may even be regional, based on which cities adopt Clean Air Zones as outlined in the government’s air quality plan. Volvo’s remarketing and TCO manager, Graeme Oswald, adds: “Fleets will soon need to consider driver locations as more cities look to govern vehicles on the roads in a bid to reduce emissions. Future legislation around the UK’s air quality therefore may result in significant changes in urban environments, particularly in larger cities like Bristol and Leeds, where potential vehicle charges and even bans may dictate a wider need for a mix of fuels on fleet.”

Graeme Oswald, Remarketing and TCO manager, Volvo.

One car. Three electrified powertrains.

l PLUG-IN HYBRID l

l HYBRID l

l ELECTRIC l

It’s easier to make better choices when all the choices are better.

Introducing the new IONIQ, one car with a choice of three electrified powertrains. Delivering improved fuel efficiency and lower emissions with a rewarding driving experience and a car that fits perfectly with your lifestyle. hyundai.co.uk

Fuel consumption in MPG (l/100km) for IONIQ Hybrid and Plug-In range: Urban 72.7 (3.88) – 0.0 (0.0), Extra Urban 70.6 (4.0) – 78.5 (3.6), Combined 70.6 (4.0) – 256.8 (1.1), CO2 Emissions 92 - 26g/km. Fuel consumption in MPG (l/100km) for IONIQ Electric range: 0.0 (0.0). CO2 Emissions 0g/km.

These official EU test figures are to be used as a guide for comparative purposes and may not reflect all driving results. Hyundai provides a 5 Year Unlimited Mileage Warranty. On the Lithium-Ion-Polymer battery Hyundai provides an 8-year or 125,000 miles Battery Warranty, whichever occurs first. For the 5 Year Unlimited Mileage Warranty and Battery Warranty certain terms and exclusions apply. For detailed information on these terms and exclusions, please refer to your local Hyundai website or consult a Hyundai dealership. Subject to availability.

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II ROUTE MASTERS II

Mapping the way to better fleet efficiency With vehicles generating and accessing more data than ever, unlocking extra fuel savings isn’t just about better engine technology. By Craig Thomas.

W

ith the constant demands in the private and public sectors to reduce costs, fleets are always under pressure to make savings.

As fuel costs comprise a significant part of a fleet’s costs, it will always be one area of operations that will come under scrutiny. Thankfully, help is at hand, in the form of the latest telematics and route planning technology.

Route planning has become vital on roads that are suffering from increased levels of congestion. TomTom’s 2016 Traffic Index found an average journey in 2015 took 29% longer than it would in free-flowing conditions, an increase on the 25% delay it found in 2010. In addition, traffic levels in the UK’s 25 most congested cities and towns increased the amount of time each

vehicle spent on the road by an average of 127 hours a year: this costs UK business approximately £767m a year in lost productivity.

As Beverley Wise, director UK & Ireland at TomTom Telematics, says: “The dual impact of traffic and demanding job schedules could have serious repercussions for businesses. Aside from the effect on productivity, more time spent

“ROUTE PLANNING HAS BECOME VITAL ON ROADS THAT ARE SUFFERING FROM INCREASED LEVELS OF CONGESTION.”

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on the road typically means more money spent on fuel, while delays can have a significant impact on customer service standards and the ability to meet service level agreements (SLAs).”

One of the software products on the market that can help fleets optimise their route planning is Trakm8’s Optimisation. Colin Ferguson, the company’s managing director of fleet and optimisation, explains how it works.

“Basic route optimisers only plan each individual vehicle’s best possible journey.

Ours looks holistically at a fleet, then assigns vehicles, routes and schedules in the most efficient manner.

“The algorithms are far more accurate and faster than manual planning.

They can take into account multiple factors such as ring-fenced customer delivery windows, working time directives and more. Trakm8 Optimisation can also provide dynamic scheduling, in real time. For example, fleet managers can add last-minute jobs for an important customer, or re-route vehicles to avoid serious delays and road closures caused by accidents.

“Typical savings are up to 20%, which

is a combination of lower total fleet mileage and sometimes fewer vehicles required to do the same number of tasks. There is also a substantial saving on transport planning time, freeing up human resource for other tasks.

“Trakm8 Optimisation can also schedule ultra-low emission vehicles within a wider fleet, ensuring that organisations can achieve the best possible return on investment from EVs and other alternative-fuelled assets.”

BETTER DATA Indeed software is now becoming so sophisticated that, in conjunction with internet of things (IoT) devices, fleets can benefit in a variety of ways.

Mark Benson, chief technology officer of Exosite, a specialist IoT software platform provider, says: “Remote connectivity for mobile assets can help operators reduce costs in a number of ways. By knowing where an asset has been, currently is, and needs to go in the future, intelligent route planning can optimise the route for fuel and time savings.

“So, most obviously, knowing where an

asset has been and where it is going enables fleet owners to optimise planned routes that take the shortest amount of time. Less time on the road means less fuel, less cost and higher margins.

“But there’s also the fact that if fleet managers know not only where an asset is located, but also what it is carrying, they can optimise loads, where an existing truck can pick up more loads, thereby reducing the total number of trucks needed in the fleet.

“The Internet of Things is also enabling insights into not only where the vehicle is located, but also how the asset is performing. Certain types of work trucks have sophisticated hydraulic systems on board that IoT sensors and data can be used to detect early wear and tear, or adverse health conditions that require maintenance.

Fixing issues before they happen reduces unplanned downtime which can be a significant savings for fleet operators on fuel and time.”

The constantly updated, real-time, real-world data that fleets can now access also offers more information than ever before, which can aid deci-

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II ROUTE MASTERS II

BMW’s plug-in hybrids can use navigation data to pre-plan battery usage for the route.

sions about vehicle deployment.

Trakm8’s Ferguson suggests one such scenario where telematics and route planning software can help make the most of resources: “If you can free up four vehicles and drivers per day, the company can take on extra work without having to increase its cost base. Furthermore, dynamic scheduling – the ability to adjust schedules in response to real-time events – can give a fleet an advantage over its peers, as it can be more responsive to its customers.

“The real benefits come from integration with telematics, as this enables fleet managers to analyse planned versus actual performance. A fully integrated solution provides all the benefits from one log-in and with one dashboard – optimisation, driver behaviour, vehicle tracking, PDA data capture – all from one intuitive interface.

“Plus the software also easily integrates with third-party back-office systems and fleet management software.”

Other systems on the market can also harness the strengths of different software solutions to help fleets.

TomTom’s Wise describes how the company’s Webfleet product – a Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) fleet management solution – integrates with other

34 FUELLING CHANGE

TomTom Webfleet can be integrated with routing and scheduling software.

systems: “Webfleet’s open APIs allow easy integration with a wide range of routing and scheduling software. A host of ready-made integrations are already available through the TomTom App Center and – by feeding accurate GPS location, traffic and route data into specialised routing and scheduling platforms – they make it possible for operators to benefit from dynamic planning.”

And, of course, fleets can make the most of the connected world. Benson says: “Everything around us is becoming connected to the internet. And that includes stationary assets that mobile assets come into contact with. We are moving closer to a world where fleet operators can see not only what is happening with their trucks, but also the loads they are carrying, the maintenance of their trucks and equipment, and the behaviour of their drivers. The way that companies leverage smart IoT sensors and services to streamline the business of owning and operating mobile fleets and the fuel they consume will define their success over the coming decade.”

EFFICIENCY BUILT IN Carmakers are also working on using map data to improve fuel efficiency.

Brands such as BMW and Volvo are already utilising map data and real-time traffic information to maximise battery charge in plug-in hybrids and EVs, while Audi has also just announced a new hybrid navigation system that calculates routes on online servers and also, in parallel, in the car’s sat nav. The system takes account of the overall traffic picture throughout a region, even including events far off the planned route if they could potentially have an impact on it. The navigation software in the car uses the online database and also evaluates information on the course of the road, with the data used by functions in the car such as predictive efficiency assist. The central driver assistance controller also processes the data that it receives along the route from the navigation system, merging this with the data picked up by the onboard sensors.

As we march inexorably towards a world filled with connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs), telematics and route planning software will become more commonplace features in cars. In the meantime, fleets can choose from a range of available systems to help them maximise the efficiency of their vehicles and reduce fuel costs.

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Ford ECO NEWS

inbrief New plug-in hybrid electric Transit Custom van FORD’s advanced new plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV) Transit Custom van, designed to help improve local air quality by running solely on electric power for the majority of city journeys, will provide city-based commercial vehicle operators with a range of benefits.

In addition to zero-emission capability exceeding 31 miles, the Transit Custom PHEV uses petrol fuel for a target total range of more than 310 miles. The PHEV also has an increased payload capacity compared with battery-only electric vehicles, and the ability to offer quick and easy recharging from a standard electricity supply.

Ford is the first volume manufacturer to offer PHEV technology in this segment of the van market. The technology enables the vehicle to be charged with mains electricity for zero-emission journeys, while the compact and fuel-efficient EcoBoost engine generates additional charge for the batteries when required. The Transit Custom PHEV uses a series-hybrid driveline configuration, with the vehicle’s wheels driven exclusively by an electric motor, rather than by the combustion engine.

The battery pack is a compact liquid-cooled lithium-ion design located under the load floor, preserving the full cargo volume offered by the standard Transit Custom van.

Ford is preparing 20 PHEV Transit vans for the 12-month fleet customer trial in London that begins in late 2017, which will explore how the hybrid electric vans can contribute to cleaner air targets and enhanced productivity in city use.

FORD builds a range of advanced diesel engines including the 2.0-litre Ford EcoBlue unit that debuted in the new Ford Transit and Transit Custom.

Built on a new state-of-the-art production line at Dagenham, the engine delivers an unrivalled package of fuel efficiency, performance and refinement. Its cleansheet design features friction-reducing innovations that contribute to a 13 per cent improvement in fuel efficiency over the 1.8-litre engine it replaced.

It is one of a range of Ford-built diesel engines including the 2.0-litre bi-turbo unit in the Mondeo which delivers a thrilling and highly responsive 210PS with an impressive 450Nm of torque – and provides outstanding fuel economy and CO2 emissions from just 124g/km.

For further information on any vehicle in the Ford range please contact the Ford Business Centre on 03457 23 23 23, email flinform@ford.com, or visit www.ford.co.uk/fordfleet

Mondeo advanced Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) offers best of both worlds THE Mondeo advanced Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) combines the benefits of both electric and petrol power, with outstanding efficiency and refinement along with rewarding performance and driving range.

Regenerative braking, an innovative Smartgauge with ‘Brake Coach’, plus other smart systems, help further maximise the Mondeo Titanium HEV’s power and efficiency, returning 100.9mpg urban, 56.5mpg extra urban and 67.3mpg combined.

Available as a four-door saloon, the Mondeo HEV’s interior features include sports style front seats and Lane Keeping System (including Lane-keeping Alert and Lane-Keeping Aid).

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II COMMERCIAL VEHICLES II

WHERE NEXT FOR COMMERCIAL VEHICLES? Traditionally a diesel-weighted part of the market, how could the commercial vehicle sector change over the coming years? Dan Gilkes finds out.

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A

s the public, and to a lesser extent fleets, continue to turn their back on diesel as the main power source for vehicles, manufacturers are rushing to meet this change in demand. Although a wide range of hybrid and full-electric vehicles is due to launch over the coming months in the car market the light commercial vehicle sector has been slower to react to this change in demand, with few vehicles on offer to those companies looking for an alternative to diesel. Even petrol engines are a relatively uncommon sight in vans, other than in small car-based models.

That said, Volkswagen has recently launched petrol engine versions of the Transporter van, alongside petrol Caddy, as an option for urban delivery and rental customers.

The majority of manufacturers have developed electric, gas and hybridpowered vans, but few have yet to come to market. Demand has been limited and there haven’t been many government incentives to push adoption.

LIGHTENING THE LOAD Purchase cost and range anxiety provide the same concerns for van operators as for car fleets, though manufacturers report that around 60% of vans cover less than 100 miles a day, potentially making them an ideal choice for electric power. Many vans also return to a fixed depot location overnight, so an electric driveline is even more of an option.

However, the main stumbling block, for larger vans in particular, is weight. While adding the weight of batteries to a car is perhaps undesirable in terms of handling and energy use, simply adding weight to a van is often not an option.

This is particularly true at 3.5-tonnes, which is the most popular weight for larger vans. This is the cut-off point for drivers who passed their driving test after January 1997. If they want to drive a van above that weight, then they have to take another test. In addition, vans

over 3.5-tonnes may require a tachograph and the company running that van will need an Operator’s licence.

At 3.5-tonnes customers would expect to be able to carry at least 1.0-tonne of payload, possibly as much as 1,200kg.

However, with the addition of heavy batteries that can be reduced to well below the tonne, making an electric van an expensive and unproductive option.

One factor that could push the adoption of electric drive, particularly at the heavier end of the market, would be increasing the gross weight of alternative fuel 3.5tonne vans by 750kg, to 4.25-tonnes. This government proposal is currently out for consultation and is being welcomed by manufacturers like Iveco, which offers its Daily van with both electric and compressed natural gas drivelines.

Allowing companies to run electric and CNG vans at 4.25-tonnes, with drivers using a standard Category B licence, no tachograph and no Operator’s licence for the business, would offset the increased weight of batteries and other components that currently make larger electric vans difficult to justify.

“It’s always seemed nonsensical that companies keen to implement innovative technology that is better for the environment should be penalised on payload and have to pay for additional driver training,” said Martin Flach, Iveco’s alternative fuels director.

“If the plan is accepted, we firmly believe it would quickly boost the uptake of ultra low emission vehicles and consequently improve air quality. The vehicles are available, we just need the government to ensure businesses are being given the opportunity to make the most of them.”

There are non-diesel vans available below the 3.5-tonne break point. Renault and Nissan have been at the forefront of the electric van market, with Kangoo Z.E. and e-NV200 respectively finding favour among urban delivery businesses keen to project an environmentally-friendly image.

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II COMMERCIAL VEHICLES II

FINDING THE PERFECT FIT For some the decision is not just ethical though; an electric van can be a financially sound proposition according to Duncan Catchpole, founder of the Cambridge Organic Food Company. The business, which delivers wholesale food within Cambridge, purchased its first e-NV200 at the end of 2016 and it has been so successful that two more of the compact Nissans have joined the firm’s fleet this year.

“The e-NV200 is the right size for the business,” says Mr Catchpole. “They are wonderful to drive, absolutely lovely. It’s really nice to pull away silently and it takes a lot of the stress of driving in the city away for our drivers.”

All three of the vans were purchased ex-demo, so the price was similar to a diesel van. However, running costs have so far been considerably lower than the diesel vans that the company still uses for longer journeys.

“There is a real cost saving to us. We were spending hundreds of pounds on diesel but that’s been slashed. There’s

no road fund licence and our insurance was not affected,” says Mr Catchpole.

“I’m confident that longer term they will work out too, as there is less servicing. We generally tend to run a van for 7-8 years, so residual values are not as big a concern for us.

“THE NISSAN E-NV200 WAS THE RIGHT VEHICLE FOR US ON EVERY LEVEL.” Andy Jehan, director of operations, Jersey Post

“It feels progressive and that we are doing something positive. The main driver for choosing the e-NV200 is that is matches the ethical focus of our business.”

Another business keen to promote the e-NV200 is Jersey Post. The Channel Island postal service has 15 of the electric vans delivering mail across the island, as part of a fleet of 100 vehicles.

“The Nissan e-NV200 was the right vehicle for us on every level,” says director of operations Andy Jehan.

“The vans are going to make a very significant contribution in our ambition to lower the environmental impact of our fleet and help preserve the beauty of our island. They’re ideal for the short distance, stop/start driving that the job involves.

“The value is exceptional too, our decision to switch being based on the financial projections we have made on whole life costs. If our projections prove accurate, then there’s no reason why many more of our vehicles shouldn’t be electric.”

GROWING POPULARITY ALONG with the Nissan and Renault’s Kangoo, which is proving equally popular with businesses, Peugeot and Citroën have electric versions of their Partner and Berlingo vans on offer. The Post Office has recently ordered 100 of the Partner Electric vans for use in domestic deliveries, along with nine electric trucks from Banbury-based Arrival, that will carry mail between London depots.

LDV is launching an electric 3.5-tonne van and chassis cab range in November (see pg 64 of Van Fleet World October 2017). The EV80 promises up to 120 miles of range and should carry up to 900kg in panel van form. Renault is promising an electric Master Z.E. van, again at 3.5-tonnes, which will use technology from the smaller Kangoo Z.E. models, while Volkswagen will begin trials of an e-Crafter by the end of this year with customer deliveries planned for late 2018 to early 2019. Mercedes-Benz has also promised an electric version of the Sprinter by 2019, following the launch of the next-generation diesel vans in 2018.

Ford is taking a slightly different approach, trialling 20 Transit Custom PHEV hybrid vans with a range of companies in London over the next 12 months. The van is electric powered, but uses an EcoBoost 1.0-litre petrol engine as a range-extender generator. This combination of compact petrol engine and small capacity battery allows the van to retain its 1.0-tonne payload and full load volume, while delivering a range of up to 310 miles.

38 FUELLING CHANGE

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II GLOBAL TRENDS II

HOW OUR AUTOMOTIVE FUTURE COULD UNFOLD Facing increasing political pressure and new technology, how long a life does the internal combustion engine have?

Craig Thomas investigates.

THE world is changing at what often seems a frightening pace, with many of the relative certainties disappearing in the face of the seemingly relentless assault of new technology.

This is arguably no more true than in the automotive sphere, where the former choice of diesel or petrol engine is now complicated by all kinds of new-fangled options: hybrid, electric, or even hydrogen fuel cell.

But there’s real uncertainty about the factors that will lead to a huge upheaval, the adoption of these new engine technologies, and the implications of how and when they will become mainstream alternatives to the traditional internal combustion engine.

For example, political and environmental influences have obviously played a significant role in leading us to where we are today, on the cusp of a revolution in the automotive industry.

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II GLOBAL TRENDS II

HOW OUR AUTOMOTIVE FUTURE COULD UNFOLD

BREAKING THE STATUS QUO Futurologist Anders Sorman-Nilsson thinks that environmental and sustainability goals will lead to major geo-political shifts.

“There is going to be more focus on sustainability and a political push to cut our ties with what I call the petro-dictators.

Increasingly, the future is one that is based around sustainability and one that is focused on environmentalism,” he says.

“In breaking ourselves away from the petro-dictators and some of the interests in the Middle East, for example, renewable energy will be really important.”

A dependence on oil will be tough to break and barrel prices could yet have an influence on how rapid the adoption of EVs will be.

Colin McKerracher, lead advanced transport analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Futures, says: “So far, we haven’t seen low oil prices have too much of an impact of on EV sales – we have seen an impact on hybrid sales – so in an environment where oil prices stay low, the impact it has on EV sales is uncertain. However, overall you’d expect that as we move into larger numbers of buyers, it will have a negative impact.

“But if prices do come back, it might happen in the early 2020s, when there’ll be this real proliferation of EV models hitting the market. If those two things happen in conjunction, you might see a real boost for EVs.”

MAKING EVS ADD UP But oil also provides a revenue stream for governments, through fuel levies. Those governments also use tax regimes to incentivise (or, more accurately, disincentivise) fuel use, which can influence the choices of vehicle purchasers.

AA president Edmund King points out that the loss of these tax revenues could influence the take-up of EVs: “Ironically, the thing that might slow down EV adoption is that the government gets around £32bn a year from drivers, mainly from fuel duty, but also from VED. That is going to change, if we all turn to hybrid and electric vehicles. At some stage the government will have to bite the bullet and there will be some kind of payas-you-drive thing. The government is going to need that revenue and it’s difficult to see how else they can get it.”

But consumers are key and they’re already shifting attitudes in reaction to the concerns over the effect diesel is having over air quality – and, as a consequence, how diesel drivers will be financially penalised.

As Edmund King says: “Surveys with our members show that currently 40% have a diesel car, but when they’re thinking

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“THE FUTURE IS ONE THAT IS BASED AROUND SUSTAINABILITY AND ONE THAT IS FOCUSED ON ENVIRONMENTALISM.”

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about their next car that drops to 16%, which is a pretty radical shift over a short period of time.

A lot of that is because they hear about charges, T-Charges, low emissions zones and all of that.”

Bloomberg’s McKerracher adds: “That may not necessarily mean everyone goes and switches to an electric vehicle – in fact, a lot of those people are definitely switching to petrol vehicles. But overall, there is that growing recognition of health impacts and we are seeing that start to play out in people’s purchasing decisions. Individual consumers might not necessarily be changing their purchasing decisions based on health or environmental impacts, but people do make relatively sophisticated calculations around expected residual values of their vehicles. When that starts to become uncertain, as it is becoming for diesel vehicles, consumer behaviour responds.

“But ultimately to get the real middle market involved, something has to be better, cheaper, or both.

“The good news is that electric vehicles can probably meet that. You’re seeing battery costs decline precipitously, coming down from $1,000 per kWh in 2010 to about $200 per kWh this year on average, with some manufacturers already well below $200.

“Once you add all that up, electric vehicles become cheaper – not just from a total cost of ownership basis but on an upfront basis, beginning around 2025 or 2026.

“Then EV qualities such as acceleration and low noise mean that we think the middle market ends up buying EVs not primarily because of environmental concerns, but because they end up being cheaper for comparable performance – or even better performance, in many cases.”

Or, as King says: “The killer change will be when you get a really good electric car that has a 300mile range, costs £15,000, looks good, drives well and is a five-seater. That killer car could change the game.”

TESTING TIMES Another nail in the coffin of the internal combustion engine could be the recent change in emissions testing to the new Worldwide harmonized Light vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP), a much more stringent process that is based on real-world driving data. As this replaces laboratory testing, it's anticipated that mpg figures will fall and CO2 figures will increase. As more consumers realise that their cars are less efficient than they thought, hybrids or EVs could become more attractive.

McKerracher says: “I think the move to WLTP is a good thing. It's more indicative of what consumers will actually experience and that, ultimately, is going to be good for them.

“I don’t think other efficiency-boosting trends will suffer in the wake of its introduction, because I also think that it places more responsibility on diesel vehicles as well to better report their performances. If anything, I think the move from NEDC to WLTP is positive for electric vehicles.

“I think that there will also be an element of people being more aware of what their actual costs are going to be in running an internal combustion engined-vehicle and I do think that pushes them more towards more environmentally friendly or low-emission vehicles.”

So has the fate of the internal combustion engine been sealed by new engine technologies?

“I think there are going to be applications where the internal combustion engine is going to be useful for a long time,” McKerracher suggests. “I also think that EVs will comprise more than half of the market, starting in the late 2030s and growing further from there.

“But I don’t think that necessarily means that the internal combustion engine disappears. I still think that there are going to be use cases in which that is still going to be quite an attractive option and it will still be expensive in some cases to replicate with a pure EV.” King agrees: “I think the internal combustion engine still has a decent bit of life in it. I don’t think there’ll be a cut-off point in 2030 or even 2040. But I think we’ll see more change in the next 10 years than we’ve seen in the last 10 years, without a doubt.

“The life of the car, and the freedom of the road, isn’t ending yet.”

FUELLING CHANGE 43

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