Trend Forecasting

Trend forecasting “underpins all aspects of society where it is important to understand the short, medium- and long-term impact of new emerging changes taking place in the culture around us. These can be large scale changes impacting the world, or they can be more subtle and difficult-to-identify shifts in how we will live tomorrow” (Raymond, 2010, p.14). There are two types of forecasting, that are evident. “Short-term forecasting, which predicts trends one to two years in the future and focuses on new products, especially colour, textile, and style, and long-term forecasting, which predicts trends five and more years in the future and focuses on the direction of the fashion industry, particularly in materials, design, production, and retailing” (Kim et al., 2011, p.49).

Various professionals utilise forecasting within the industry to develop longterm marketing strategies and establish consumer behaviour (Branon, 2010). Organisations from various industries observe and anticipate the public’s attitudes and behaviours, these include government think-tanks, market research organisations and financial firms. Specifically, these consist of WGSN, World Economic Forum, and LSN Global acting as major sources of information for businesses (Posner, 2015).

As Lisa White, Head of Vision at WGSN states “each season, we look at these cultural movements and press pause. We see how they have evolved in the past six months and how they are likely to move in the years ahead. (Spiegel, 2017).

Trend Forecasters are “lifestyle detectives: men and women who spend their time detecting patterns or shifts in attitudes, mindsets or lifestyle opinions that run against current thinking or how people normally behave, live, dress, communicate and trade” (Raymond, 2010, p.12). Trend Forecasters are key for identifying emerging patterns in society and profound cultural shifts. They are heterophilous and open to change, working in a cohort or alone. Forecasters are required to be alert requiring a sharp eye, and an innovative nature to embrace change (Rogers, 1995). “Forecasters use a battery of techniques and processes that have been derived from disciplines as diverse as sociology, psychology and ethnography” (Raymond, 2010, p.14). In order to detect new directions in trends, forecasters look at innovators and early adopters, focusing on people within cities and neighbourhoods (Rogers, 1995). Successful forecasters need “to train themselves always to think about the future implications of any data they obtain” (Higham, 2009).

Trend Forecasting is carried out to predict “patterns or shifts in attitudes, mindsets or lifestyle options, that run against current thinking or how people normally behave, live, dress, communicate and trade.” (Raymond, 2010, p.12). Forecasting provides an insight into current consumer behaviour and potential changes that may occur (Kim et al., 2011). It is of importance for industry to have this insight to create effective strategies for commercial success and gain competitive advantage. WGSN, a leading trend forecasting company identifies that this “drives sales by staying ontrend” (WGSN, 2019). Furthermore, trend forecasting is utilised to provide insight into product and market positioning (Kim et al, 2011).

There are various methods utilised by trend forecasters, however the overriding method consists of observing society and cultural changes (Kim et al., 2011). Being commercially aware is crucial for forecasters, as it creates an understanding of the market and industry. Forecasters are required to “go through books, newspapers, periodicals, magazines, websites, television programmes and radio shows on a daily basis” (Raymond, 2010, p.44). In addition, it is necessary for trend forecasters to attend exhibitions and trade fairs before consumers are aware. (Raymond, 2010). Always being ahead of the consumers and the trends means that forecasters have to work at a fast pace and at a wide scale (McKelvey and Munslow, 2008).