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Long-term Employment Growth by Occupation
Beginning in 2018, the Bureau of Labor Statistics introduced a new methodology for producing occupation growth projections. The old method used for occupation estimations attempted to project occupational openings due economic growth, as well as replacement openings due to employees exiting the labor force. However, the estimations did not consider openings that occurred when employees moved from one occupation to another, and often resulted in an undercounting of total needed replacements. The new method is designed to provide better estimates by using demographic and other longitudinal data from Current Population Survey monthly data, and to account for openings that result as employees move from one occupation to another. Therefore, it is important to exercise caution when comparing projected occupational growth figures in this section and the next section to previous Workforce Now reports.
The forecast in Table 3-17 provides additional information about expected annual occupational demands for the Southwest Florida region. Information is presented for the top 10 growth occupations along with the 2019 median hourly wage and educational requirements. The top 10 employment growth occupations are waiters and waitresses, restaurant cooks, combined food preparation and serving workings (including fast food), landscaping and groundskeeping workers, retail salespersons, construction laborers, registered nurses, maids and housekeeping cleaners, carpenters, and first-line supervisors of food preparation and serving workers.
The top 10 growth occupations primarily reflect expected increases in retail, tourism, food preparation, construction, and health care. Five of the top growth occupations require less than a high school degree, one requires a high school degree or GED, three require adult vocational training, and one requires an associate’s degree. Median wages varied from $9.49 per hour to $32.17 per hour and were highly correlated with the required minimum education.
A complete list of the top 50 long-term annual employment growth occupations in Southwest Florida can be found in Appendix A.
2020 to 2028
Occupation
Waiters and Waitresses Cooks, Restaurant
Percent
2020 2028 Growth Growth
2019 Median Hourly Wage Minimum Education
13,920 17,656 3,736 26.8% $9.49 Less HS/GED 8,100 11,764 3,664 45.2% $12.76 Post-Secondary
Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, 10,905 13,859 2,954 27.1% $9.60 Less HS/GED
Including Fast Food Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers 13,628 16,512 2,884 21.2% $13.35 Less HS/GED Retail Salespersons 22,348 24,806 2,458 11.0% $11.37 HS/GED Construction Laborers 10,524 12,692 2,168 20.6% $12.70 Less HS/GED
Registered Nurses
Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners Carpenters First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers 10,208 11,629 1,421 13.9% $32.17
Associate's Degree 5,113 6,362 1,249 24.4% $9.65 Less HS/GED 8,210 9,446 1,236 15.1% $19.00 Post-Secondary 4,127 5,251 1,124 27.2% $16.62 Post-Secondary
Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Employment Projections
