sets the intellectual stage for understanding the revolutions in the Middle East. This collection brings together more than sixty articles, interviews, congressional testimony, and op-eds from experts and thought leaders, including Bernard Lewis, Fouad Ajami, Richard Haass, Lisa Anderson, Martin Indyk, Isobel Coleman, Aluf Benn, Dirk Vandewalle, and Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The volume includes seminal pieces from Foreign Affairs, ForeignAffairs. com, and CFR.org. In addition, major public statements by Barack Obama, Hillary Rodham Clinton, Hosni Mubarak, Muammar al-Qaddafi, and others are joined by Egyptian opposition writings and relevant primary source documents. Even if you have been paying close attention to the extraordinary events unfolding in the Middle East, this book pulls together what is needed to understand the origins and significance of the new Arab revolt, including a special introduction by Foreign Affairs editor Gideon Rose. Cover photo: Asmaa Waguih/Courtesy of Reuters
The New Arab Revolt
The New Arab Revolt: What Happened, What It Means, and What Comes Next
The New Arab Revolt What Happened, What It Means, and What Comes Next
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Contents Regional Map
xi
Introduction—Gideon Rose
xii
The Past as Prologue
The Sorrows of Egypt—Fouad Ajami
2
Foreign Affairs (September/October 1995)
Back to the Bazaar—Martin Indyk
22
Foreign Affairs (January/February 2002)
Freedom and Justice in the Modern Middle East —Bernard Lewis
38
Foreign Affairs (May/June 2005)
Adrift on the Nile: The Limits of the Opposition in Egypt—Steven A. Cook
57
Foreign Affairs (March/April 2009)
Is El Baradei Egypt’s Hero? Mohamed El Baradei and the Chance for Reform—Steven A. Cook
68
ForeignAffairs.com (March 26, 2010)
The Ice Breaks Up
Morning in Tunisia: The Frustrations of the Arab World Boil Over—Michele Penner Angrist ForeignAffairs.com (January 16, 2011)
[iii]
75
Contents Letter From Cairo: The People’s Military in Egypt? —Eric Trager
81
ForeignAffairs.com (January 30, 2011)
The U.S.-Egyptian Breakup: Washington’s Limited Options in Cairo—Steven A. Cook
86
ForeignAffairs.com (February 2, 2011)
The Muslim Brotherhood After Mubarak: What the Brotherhood Is and How It Will Shape the Future—Carrie Rosefsky Wickham
91
ForeignAffairs.com (February 3, 2011)
Egypt’s Democratic Mirage: How Cairo’s Authoritarian Regime Is Adapting to Preserve Itself—Joshua Stacher
98
ForeignAffairs.com (February 7, 2011)
Overcoming Fear and Anxiety in Tel Aviv: How Israel Can Turn Egypt’s Unrest Into an Opportunity—Aluf Benn
104
ForeignAffairs.com (February 8, 2011)
Mubarakism Without Mubarak: Why Egypt’s Military Will Not Embrace Democracy—Ellis Goldberg
110
ForeignAffairs.com (February 11, 2011)
Reflections on the Revolution in Egypt —Richard N. Haass
115
Project Syndicate (February 13, 2011)
Postcolonial Time Disorder: Egypt and the Middle East, Stuck in the Past—James D. Le Sueur ForeignAffairs.com (February 14, 2011)
[iv]
119
Contents Egypt’s Constitutional Ghosts: Deciding the Terms of Cairo’s Democratic Transition—Nathan J. Brown
125
ForeignAffairs.com (February 15, 2011)
A Tunisian Solution for Egypt’s Military: Why Egypt’s Military Will Not Be Able to Govern —Clement M. Henry and Robert Springborg
132
ForeignAffairs.com (February 21, 2011)
The Fall of the Pharaoh: How Hosni Mubarak’s Reign Came to an End—Dina Shehata
137
Foreign Affairs (May/June 2011)
The Black Swan of Cairo: How Suppressing Volatility Makes the World Less Predictable and More Dangerous —Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Mark Blyth
149
Foreign Affairs (May/June 2011)
The Cracks Spread
Why Jordan is Not a Regional Domino —Robert Danin
161
CFR.org (February 1, 2011)
Green Movement 2.0? How U.S. Support Could Lead the Opposition to Victory—Geneive Abdo
163
ForeignAffairs.com (February 18, 2011)
Iran’s Protests and Economic Realities —Interview with Suzanne Maloney
168
CFR.org (February 22, 2011)
The Arab Turmoil and Palestinians —Interview with Rashid I. Khalidi CFR.org (February 25, 2011)
[v]
175
Contents Letter From Sana’a: Saleh on the Edge —Abdullah al-Qubati
182
ForeignAffairs.com (February 25, 2011)
Bahrain’s Shia Question: What the United States Gets Wrong About Sectarianism—Kristin Smith Diwan
187
ForeignAffairs.com (March 2, 2011)
Rage Comes to Baghdad: Will Iraq’s Recent Protests Lead to Revolt?—Raad Alkadiri
193
ForeignAffairs.com (March 3, 2011)
The Sturdy House That Assad Built: Why Damascus Is Not Cairo—Michael Bröning
200
ForeignAffairs.com (March 7, 2011)
Rageless in Riyadh: Why the Al Saud Dynasty Will Remain—F. Gregory Gause III
205
ForeignAffairs.com (March 16, 2011)
Syria’s Assad No Longer in Vogue: What Everyone Got Wrong About Bashar al-Assad—Tony Badran
210
ForeignAffairs.com (March 25, 2011)
Meanwhile in the Maghreb: Have Algeria and Morocco Avoided North Africa’s Unrest?—Azzedine Layachi
215
ForeignAffairs.com (March 31, 2011)
Bahrain’s Base Politics: The Arab Spring and America’s Military Bases—Alexander Cooley and Daniel H. Nexon
221
ForeignAffairs.com (April 5, 2011)
Let Them Eat Bread: How Food Subsidies Prevent (and Provoke) Revolutions in the Middle East —Annia Ciezadlo ForeignAffairs.com (March 23, 2011)
[vi]
229
Contents Demographics of Arab Protests —Interview with Ragui Assaad
236
CFR.org (February 14, 2011)
Are the Mideast Revolutions Bad for Women’s Rights? —Isobel Coleman
242
Washington Post (February 20, 2011)
Intervention in Libya
Our Bargain With the New Gadhafi—Elliott Abrams
248
Wall Street Journal (February 25, 2011)
Libya’s Terra Incognita: Who and What Will Follow Qaddafi?—Frederic Wehrey
252
ForeignAffairs.com (February 28, 2011)
What Intervention Looks Like: How the West Can Aid the Libyan Rebels—Robert E. Hunter
258
ForeignAffairs.com (March 16, 2011)
The Folly of Protection: Is Intervention Against Qaddafi’s Regime Legal and Legitimate?—Michael W. Doyle 263 ForeignAffairs.com (March 20, 2011)
To the Shores of Tripoli: Why Operation Odyssey Dawn Should Not Stop At Benghazi—Dirk Vandewalle 269 ForeignAffairs.com (March 21, 2011)
A New Lease on Life for Humanitarianism: How Operation Odyssey Dawn Will Revive RtoP —Stewart Patrick ForeignAffairs.com (March 24, 2011)
[vii]
274
Contents In Libya, How Obama Can End a Mission That Started Badly—Gideon Rose
279
Washington Post (March 25, 2011)
The Mythology of Intervention: Debating the Lessons of History in Libya—Micah Zenko
284
ForeignAffairs.com (March 28, 2011)
Flight of the Valkyries? What Gender Does and Doesn’t Tell Us About Operation Odyssey Dawn —Charli Carpenter
290
ForeignAffairs.com (March 28, 2011)
Qaddafi Must Go—Max Boot
296
Weekly Standard (March 28, 2011)
Winning Ugly in Libya: What the United States Should Learn from Its War in Kosovo—Michael O’Hanlon
300
ForeignAffairs.com (March 30, 2011)
Will Libya Become Obama’s Iraq? —Meghan L. O’Sullivan
306
Washington Post (April 1, 2011)
Prepared Statement Before the Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Senate —Richard N. Haass
313
First Session, 112th Congress Hearing on Perspectives on the Crisis in Libya (April 6, 2011)
What It Means and What Comes Next
Demystifying the Arab Spring: Parsing the Differences Between Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya—Lisa Anderson Foreign Affairs (May/June 2011)
[viii]
320
Contents Understanding the Revolutions of 2011: Weakness and Resilience in Middle Eastern Autocracies —Jack A. Goldstone
329
Foreign Affairs (May/June 2011)
The Heirs of Nasser: Who Will Benefit From the Second Arab Revolution?—Michael Scott Doran 344 Foreign Affairs (May/June 2011)
The Rise of the Islamists: How Islamists Will Change Politics, and Vice Versa—Shadi Hamid
359
Foreign Affairs (May/June 2011)
Terrorism After the Revolutions: How Secular Uprisings Could Help (or Hurt) Jihadists—Daniel Byman 370 Foreign Affairs (May/June 2011)
Documents
Remarks by President Barack Obama on a New Beginning
382
Cairo University, Egypt (June 4, 2009)
Hillary Rodham Clinton’s Remarks to the Forum for the Future
400
Doha, Qatar (January 13, 2011)
The Last Official Address by Tunisian President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali
404
January 13, 2011
The Last Official Address by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak February 10, 2011
[ix]
408
Contents Excerpts from Libyan Leader Muammar al-Qaddafi’s Televised Address
414
February 22, 2011
Excerpts from the Sermon of Shaykh Yusuf al-Qaradawi 421 Tahrir Square, Cairo, Egypt (February 23, 2011)
What Is the Revolution? What Is the Regime?
428
From Revolutionary Egypt, Volume 2
Arab League Resolution 7360 on the Repercussions of the Current Events in Libya
431
March 12, 2011
UN Security Council Resolution 1973, Libya
434
March 17, 2011
Remarks by President Barack Obama in Address to the Nation on Libya
444
Washington, DC (March 28, 2011)
Joint Statement by Nicholas Sarkozy and David Cameron on Libya 455 March 28, 2011
Excerpts from Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s Speech Before the Syrian People’s Assembly, Damascus
458
Damascus, Syria (March 30, 2011)
Hillary Rodham Clinton’s Remarks at the Gala Dinner Celebrating the U.S.-Islamic World Forum
467
Brookings Institution, Washington, DC (April 12, 2011)
Acknowledgments
480
[x]