THE ART OF THE POSSIBLE
THE WITHERING OF CONVENTIONAL ARMS CONTROL IN EUROPE If incidents and buildups are dangerous, the solution would seem obvious: limit them and mitigate the risks. In Europe, this approach has a long and rich history. A wide variety of conventional arms control instruments, often termed confidence and security building measures, or CSBMs, have been developed in and applied over the years with just this intent. At present, however, all such measures that exist are defunct, inadequate to modern technologies and needs, or both.
5,500 kilometers. INF formally died in 2019, when first the United States and then Russia withdrew. Prior, the United States had accused Russia of building a noncompliant new missile system. Russia complained that US missile defense systems could violate the treaty if used for other purposes. The United States has not yet deployed INF weapons in Europe, although it accuses Russia of fielding that same new system it says undermined the treaty. Russia denies having INF systems deployed in Europe.
The most far-reaching arrangement, the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), limited deployments and included notification, data exchange, and inspection provisions. Decades in negotiation, it was signed in November 1990 by the then-members of NATO and the Warsaw Pact. It was thus out of date within a year of its signature, having delineated limits for countries and alliances that no longer existed once the Warsaw Pact dissolved in summer of 1991 and the Soviet Union that winter. Updates in 1992 and 1996 were rendered obsolete in 1997, when the first former Warsaw Pact members joined NATO. A 1999 adjustment was never ratified by NATO members because Russia failed to withdraw its weapons and personnel from Moldova and Georgia, where they helped prop up the breakaway territories of Transnistria, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia. In 2007, Russia “suspended” its participation in the treaty and in 2011 the United States cut back on its obligations vis-à-vis Russia. In 2015, Russia “halted” compliance entirely, although it never formally withdrew, citing US plans to put bases in Romania and Bulgaria as a breach.78
If incidents and buildups are dangerous, the solution would seem obvious: limit them and mitigate the risks.
The Open Skies Treaty of 1992 aimed to increase transparency and accountability. It allowed for overflight and surveillance of member states’ territory. The treaty remains in place, but without US or Russian participation. Both Russia and the United States accused the other of violations for several years, and Washington announced it was pulling out of the deal in 2020, under then-President Donald Trump. The Biden administration confirmed that it would not reverse this decision, and Russian withdrawal followed that of the United States.
Another treaty that limited deployments, and not only in Europe, was the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. Despite its name, it prohibited Russia and the United States from building and deploying both nuclear and conventional ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges between 500 and
In addition to the treaties, several bilateral and multilateral mechanisms have historically provided a space to exchange perspectives and information. Most of those, too, have
15
