THE ART OF THE POSSIBLE
THE ART OF THE POSSIBLE For the time being, as rockets and artillery rain down upon Ukraine, deals on deployment and activity limits in Europe are unlikely. Currently, OSCE priorities are appropriately focused on dealing with the consequences of Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.134 But as guns fall silent and a new status quo begins to evolve, limits may not only start to make sense, but may be crucial to making peace stick. Depending on the situation at war’s end, Russia may well seek time and space to rebuild its forces after the war, given that fighting to date has degraded capacity and suggested significant cracks in the edifice of Russia’s military power, including when it comes to control and command, planning and tactics, morale, targeting, and joint operations.135 Western states, Ukraine, and other regional countries may well want to make sure Russian forces cross no more borders uninvited, and thus prevent, or at least constrain, Russian rebuilding. Although these goals are at cross-purposes, in the aftermath of war, with the risks of escalation well-understood, countries may be more willing to accept constraints in order to limit adversaries, particularly if doing so brings cost savings. Conversely, even if war continues, the countries of Europe and Eurasia may want to mitigate escalation risks, increase transparency and visibility of adversary activities, and simply make aggression harder.
replace it, in the meantime, amendments are likely the way to go. These amendments should focus on improving information flow and transparency, as the Vienna Document’s greatest asset is perhaps that it enables NATO members to inspect and observe Russian exercises, and vice versa, helping each better gauge the other’s capabilities. Parties could increase mandatory notification requirements for exercises not currently subject to the Vienna Document’s calendar year requirements. They could also develop a quiet notification mode for snap exercises and multinational forces on a short notice transit. This would allow either side to provide a highlevel military information notice to counterparts without warning troops participating in the drills.136
In the aftermath of war, with the risks of escalation well-understood, countries may be more willing to accept constraints in order to limit adversaries, particularly if doing so brings cost savings.
Although it is outdated and a poor fit for the post-February 24 world, any effort to move forward on European security would do well to begin by amending the Vienna Document through the Forum for Security Cooperation. For all its problems, the Vienna Document has the tremendous advantage of already existing, whereas negotiating a new transparency mechanism would take years. Even now, when inspections and evaluations seem difficult to fathom, Vienna Document data exchanges continue at the OSCE. Thus, while participants should surely explore new arrangements to
Thinking bigger, if NATO is in a position to do so when negotiations commence, it will surely push Russia to reduce any remaining force presence in Ukraine (including Crimea), Moldova, and Georgia (Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh may remain acceptable to NATO and its partners, depending on how that situation evolves). If Russia does maintain
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