FUTUROLOGY CHRONICLE No 33-CLIMATE TECH

Your Editor of the

realism with a scientific flair and an entertaining

-Independent and Sponsor free.JUNE 2024 – Edition - 4th Year-

PART 1

Context & CONCERN

THE SECOND ACCELERATION

Amidst a world warmed by human activity, the question looms large: Is climate change gaining speed? This year's unprecedented temperatures have stirred a mix of alarm and debate among scientists.

For decades, a consensus has held steady that global warming progresses at a relatively constant rate. Yet, a faction within the scientific community, including figures like James E. Hansen, posits we may be on the cusp of a dramatic uptick in temperature rises.

They argue that due to an increased planetary "energy imbalance" we might witness a 50% surge in the pace of global warming in the forthcoming years, bringing a proportional increase in climatic catastrophes.

Conversely, the discourse is far from uniform. Critics like Michael Mann and others caution against premature conclusions, pointing out that the empirical data from Earth itself doesn't yet substantiate a quickening of warming rates.

The Washington Post, leveraging NASA datasets, illustrates that while there's a clear acceleration post-1970 due to intensified greenhouse gas emissions and reduced air pollution, evidence for a subsequent acceleration remains elusive.

The heart of this contention lies in the interpretation of recent temperature records and predictive models. On one end, Hansen and his colleagues foresee imminent, more pronounced warming due to policy changes like the International Maritime Organization's sulfur content regulations in ship fuel.

This, they argue, will exacerbate the Earth's energy imbalance significantly.

On the other hand, skeptics urge patience and prudence, advocating for a more extended timeline of data to draw firm conclusions, thus echoing a sentiment of cautious observation over definitive proclamation.

Hence, as the scientific community grapples with these complexities, the narrative of a rapidly accelerating climate change hinges on future data and emerging research findings. It underscores the intrinsic uncertainties in predicting Earth's climatic future and the continuous need for rigorous, nuanced analysis.

This debate, reflective of the broader challenge of understanding and responding to climate change, remains a vital dialogue—one marked not by immediate consensus but by the shared endeavor to discern the trajectory of our warming planet.

IPCC Climate Change observations

To be "politically correct" for a change, I find myself compelled to present the key points in the IPCC Climate Change 2023 Synthesis Report: To read all of it click on Synthesis Report — IPCC

Impact of Human Activities on Climate Change: - It is undeniable that human actions, particularly the release of greenhouse gases, have been the primary driver of global warming. Over the period of 2011-2020, global surface temperatures have increased by 1.1°C compared to pre-industrial levels (1850-1900).

As someone who strongly supports the use of clean energy, I believe that it is crucial for us to- transition- away from fossil fuels and embrace sustainable alternatives. Clean energy not only helps to reduce our carbon footprint, but also promotes a healthier (less pollution) and more sustainable future for generations to come

Current Status and Trends: - The decade from 2010 to 2019 has seen a concerning rise in greenhouse gas emissions. This increase has had farreaching consequences, including the exacerbation of weather and climate extremes on a global scale. These extremes have had significant impacts on various aspects of our lives, such as food and water security, human health, and economies.

Global Policy Setting and Mitigation Actions: - International climate agreements, such as the Paris Agreement, have inspired national ambitions for climate action, with increasing public awareness driving efforts to tackle climate change.

The decreased unit costs of low-emission technologies like solar and wind energy and lithium-ion batteries have become more competitive and viable options, thanks to significant technological advancements.

Negative

Effects and Vulnerabilities: - The effects of climate change have had a detrimental impact on food and water security, making it more challenging to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

These impacts have been particularly severe in regions that are already vulnerable, such as Africa, Asia, Central and South America, and small island states. Urban areas have been greatly affected by heatwaves and air pollution events, which have had a significant impact on human health, livelihoods, and essential infrastructure. ||

Impacts and Consequences: - The effects of climate change have caused significant harm and negative consequences for both the environment and human beings.. - It is evident that the impacts of climate change have had a disproportionate effect on the most vulnerable people and systems, including Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS).

What is IPCC? The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an intergovernmental body established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). It consists of experts from various nationalities and disciplines who assess scientific knowledge about climate change caused by human activities.

The IPCC does not conduct original research but synthesizes published literature to provide comprehensive assessments on climate change, its causes, impacts, and response options. Its reports are crucial for informing governments on the state of knowledge regarding climate change, without making policy recommendations. The IPCC plays a vital role in international climate negotiations and is recognized as a leading authority on climate change, endorsed by leading climate scientists and member governments worldwide.

66th session of the IPCC bureau – Istanbul – Turkey January 2024

Seven Facets of Climate disruption

In addition to transcending the usual discussions on environmental issues,, we shall move to the next level and consider "The Seven facets of Climate disruption"( Source RSA (action and research center-COIN (climate outreach and information network) January 2025 report by Fr Jonathan Worsen and Dr Adam corner) provide a framework that examines the deep effects that climate change has on a variety of human existence facets.

To do this we need to acknowledge the complex nature of the climate catastrophe, recognizing that it is more than just a problem affecting the environment but a catalyst for profound transformation across a variety of elements of human existence.

In very first the Scientific Understanding acknowledges the significance of empirical study and data in gaining an understanding of the scope and intricacies of climate change, which is the foundation of it all.

In second we shall place an emphasis on the power of technical innovation to address climate impacts and adapt to changing conditions, so stressing the critical role that innovation plays in our response.

Third, the financial systems have a role in both the causing of environmental deterioration and the potential solutions to it. The focus of this part is on the economic components of the climate catastrophe.

We shall recognize, in fourth, the significance of policy and governance in the process of formulating effective climate action, underlining the critical role that political leadership play in the process of driving systemic change.

Fifth to consider the societal aspects of climate change, which includes the impact that communities, social norms, and cultural practices have on the progression of science and technology.

The sixth shall inspire individuals to engage in self-reflection on their actions and behaviors, placing an emphasis on personal accountability and the capacity to make a change on an individual level.

Finally the seven facets bring up ethical questions regarding our moral responsibility to both the current generation and the generations to come, as well as to the natural world that exists beyond the realm of people.

The adoption of these seven facets integrated an intelligent approach that transcends traditional disciplinary boundaries and bring together a variety of perspectives and actions necessary to effectively address the issue of climate disruption.

Not only does taking a holistic approach to the problem broaden the scope of potential solutions, but it also helps us better understand the significance of the situation at hand.

It brings to light the fact that addressing climate change requires reshaping human culture and awareness in addition to modifying policies and behaviors. It is an indication that to move forward, it is necessary for us to reevaluate our connection individually and collectively with the Earth and with one another, based on the ideals of accountability, fairness, and togetherness.

11 Key Climate Insights

More than 4 million years ago where the last time carbon dioxide levels on Earth reached their current height. The following list of 11 climate change facts will help you learn more about everything from air pollution and deforestation to sea level rise and atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions.

1. We know we were the cause of it. "It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean, and land," the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) declared at the beginning of all its report (ref chapter 2).

How can we be so sure? After some time, climate modelling has advanced to the point that it can reasonably forecast future events, given a certain amount of inaccuracy. But the observations now go beyond any error margin, demonstrating that we are the ones who have sparked the shift.

2. The previous ten years were the warmest in 125 000 years. The easiest fact to grab about climate change is this: the previous ten years have been the hottest on record, based on the IPCC's report.We have been alternating between warmer interglacial times, such as the one we are presently living in, and glacial ‘ice ages’ for roughly 100,000 years.

The left vertical bar displays the estimated temperature (very likely range) at the warmest multi-century period in the last 100,000 years, which took place approximately 6,500 years ago during the Holocene epoch that we are currently living in.

The temperatures we are currently experiencing may have been higher only 125,000 years ago, or before the last ice age. These gradual (multimillennial) orbital fluctuations that are not active today are what caused each of these previous warm eras.

3. Most of our heat is absorbed by the ocean. According to a 2019 study, the oceans absorbed 90% of the heat that the Earth gained between 1971 and 2010. According to another, it took in 20 sextillion joules of heat in 2020, which is the same as two Hiroshima bombs every second.

Because of the ocean's enormous volume and propensity to store heat, some creatures are accustomed to relatively steady temperatures. Coral reefs are especially vulnerable to temperature changes among these, which is why a large number of them are currently disappearing.

4. CO2 is at its greatest level in a millennium. Around 280 parts per million (ppm) of CO2 existed before the industrial era. We are now quite around 420 ppm.

About 500 million years ago, during the Ordovician period, is the furthest back in time for which we have estimates of CO2 levels. The Icehouse Descent is the source.

The ocean saves the day once more by taking up around one-third of the carbon in the atmosphere. It used to be a source of carbon rather than a sink before the industrial revolution, but the enormous amount of CO2 in the atmosphere now has caused it to begin absorbing the gas.

5. Every year, we lose 1.2 trillion tons of ice. This reality about climate change may be difficult to understand because we are talking about a volume that is beyond our grasp.

With 1.2 trillion tons of ice melting annually, we have lost almost 28 trillion tons of ice since the mid-1990s. The weight of everything created by humans is 1.1 trillion tons, to help you put that into perspective. It is about equivalent to the mass of every living thing on the planet.

6-The benefits and drawbacks of air pollution

More than 9 million people die each year from air pollution, according to recent research.

There is a bright side to the years of poor air quality that developing hotspots in south Asia and Africa will have to endure.Polluting particles, including PM10 and PM2.5, reflect sunlight rather than trapping it, and they have negative health effects akin to those of cigarettes. The amount of greenhouse gases we have pushed into the atmosphere might raise its

temperature by 1.5C, but up until now, fine particles have kept it at 1.1C. Although some have suggested purposefully releasing particles into the atmosphere to aid in increasing solar reflection, we have refrained from doing so due to possible unintended repercussions.

7. Extreme weather has made attribution possible.

Natural calamities can now be definitively linked to human-caused climate change. This has not always been the case, since it has been difficult to determine the degree to which humans contributed to each extreme weather occurrence due to a lack of data and improved methods for detecting attribution.

Now that climate change is a factor, we can accurately estimate how much more likely events like the Indian heatwave, which experts believe was made 30 times more likely, and the North American summer heatwave of 2021, which the World Weather Attribution claims was "virtually impossible" without it, are.

8. There is (some) chance to reverse global warming

Even if all global net emissions were to stop, other climate-related impacts would persist for decades or even centuries while the warming we have generated would gradually reverse. It would likely take millennia for the rise in sea level, for instance, to stop. Carbon Brief, the source.

9. Extreme heat caused 302.4 billion people missed work hours (Stats in 2020) and 100 $ billions US loss in productivy

If you have ever experienced a hot, humid August day in South East Asia, you know that working outside in the shade is nearly impossible and dangerous without it. According to a study published in The Lancet, there would be 295 billion less work hours lost to heat-related illnesses worldwide in 2020 compared to 199 billion in 2000. That comes out to 88 labour hours for each employee.

Outdoor labor during the day is, of course, the most exposed, and it tends to concentrate on lower-class areas and occupations, particularly agriculture.

10. A lot of regions might become too hot to live in by the end of the century.

This might be the direst of the facts we know about climate change. Currently, the Sahara desert and Saudi Arabia account for the majority of the 0.8% of the planet's land surface with mean annual temperatures above 29°C (solid black on the map below).

According to Xu et al.'s (2020) "Future of the Human Niche" study, up to 3 billion people (black hashes) could be affected by these intolerable temperatures by 2070 if high emissions are sustained.

The effects of intense heat, particularly when prolonged, are not limited to

missed work hours. Losses in agricultural productivity, the expansion of mosquitoes that spread disease, and the rise in demand for air conditioning and the corresponding energy usage are a few more.

11. Economic Risks of Inaction on Climate Change

As trends persist, the global economy stands at a precipice with potential losses ranging from 11–14% of world GDP by mid-century due to climate change. Under a high emissions scenario, this figure could soar to 18%. However, maintaining global temperature increases below 2°C could limit economic damages to just 4%.

Estimates suggest that halting climate change will require an investment of between $300 billion to $50 trillion over the next two decades. Even at the upper range of $50 trillion, this represents an annual expenditure of $2.5 trillion just over 3% of global GDP annually.

Investing in climate action and in its tech now, although costly, is significantly more economical than the alternative. The price of inaction—potentially devastating economic consequences far outweighs the investment required to mitigate climate change. The choice is clear: we either pay now to secure a sustainable future or pay much more later for our current complacency.Tragic

Climate Siblings: El Niño & La Niña

The El Niño Phenomenon

El Niño, a crucial element of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), has a substantial influence on weather patterns worldwide.

This climate phenomenon occurs when sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific increase by at least 0.5°C above the long-term average. Usually, the Pacific Ocean tends to have cooler surface waters in the eastern region and warmer waters in the western region, thanks to the presence of east-to-west trade winds.

During El Niño events, the winds lose strength or change direction, resulting in the eastward movement of warm surface waters. This redistribution of warm water affects global temperatures by releasing more heat into the atmosphere, resulting in higher global temperatures and changing atmospheric circulation patterns.

The impacts can be intricate and vary by region, leading to increased precipitation and higher temperatures in certain areas, while causing cooler climates in others. In 2023, the planet experienced record-breaking temperatures, which can be attributed to a combination of El Niño conditions and the ongoing impact of human-caused warming. According to the UK Met Office and the US NOAA, predictions indicate that the temperatures in 2024 may reach even higher levels due to the influence of El Niño. These organisations also expect a gradual weakening of the current El Niño in the upcoming months.

La Niña Dynamics

On the other hand, La Niña is the contrasting phase of ENSO, which is marked by more powerful east-to-west winds that push warmer waters towards the western Pacific Ocean.

This change causes cooler waters from the ocean depths to rise in the east, leading to lower-than-average sea surface temperatures in this area. During La Niña events, global temperatures tend to decrease and weather patterns around the world undergo significant changes. As an expert in energy efficiency, it's important to note that La Niña conditions typically result in heightened tropical storm activity in the tropical Pacific, while simultaneously causing a decrease in activity in the tropical Atlantic. These conditions have distinct impacts on weather patterns when compared to El Niño. These episodes can have significant impacts on infrastructure, agriculture, and energy systems worldwide because of their influence on extreme weather events.

Interactions

with Climate Change

Research, including findings from the IPCC, indicates that ENSO events have become more intense since 1950 in comparison to the period between 1850 and 1950. Historical data shows that there have been fluctuations in the frequency and intensity of these events since the 1400s. However, climate models suggest that El Niño events could become more frequent and intense as a result of global warming. The potential intensification and more frequent occurrence of El Niño could worsen the global temperature increases, highlighting the complex connection between natural climate patterns and human-induced climate change.

Part 2

MISTAKES & setbacks

Emissions Crossroads: Act or PeriL!

The world is far from reaching its goal of averting a "climate catastrophe," and scientists are expressing a sense of urgency regarding the limited time we must greatly reduce our dependence on fossil fuels.

Climate Action Tracker, an independent research group, offers valuable insights into the level of planet-heating pollution released in 2022. It identifies the key contributors to this pollution and emphasize the work that still needs to be done to make further progress.

It is worth noting that the top 20 polluters, such as China (30% of global emissions). India, the United States, and the European Union, are responsible for most global greenhouse gas emissions. The actions taken by these nations to address the climate crisis have a profound impact on the global community.

Emissions per person, which indicate the amount of climate pollution produced by the average individual in each country, differ. Although China has the highest overall emissions, the average American contributes nearly

twice as much climate pollution as the average person in China. In densely populated India, a country that significantly impacts climate change, per capita emissions are lower than the global average.

According to a warning from the United Nations, the world is projected to experience nearly 3 degrees of global warming, even if current climate policies are met. Examining the path that has brought us to this point, with nations, especially those in affluent regions, facing increasing pressure to enhance their climate goals.

However, progress continues to be frustratingly slow, with numerous scientists expressing worry that achieving the 1.5 target is no longer possible.

China witnessed a notable surge in pollution because of its heavy dependence on coal for economic development. Nevertheless, emissions have started to stabilize and are projected to peak by 2025. In late 2023,

China and the US jointly pledged to boost the adoption of renewable energy sources and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The climate crisis has been a major concern in the US and EU, with both regions making substantial progress in addressing it. In 2022, President Joe Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act, which represents a major step forward in our nation's commitment to addressing climate change. Nevertheless, there is a considerable amount of work that remains to be done, given that both countries are starting from high levels of emissions and face a challenging path to reach net zero by 2050.

India, a country witnessing a notable surge in emissions, is frequently associated on this topic with China, yet it possesses unique characteristics. India is in the early stages of development and has made limited contributions to historical emissions. Despite investing in renewable energy projects, India continues to heavily depend on coal, which releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, exacerbating a sudden strategic mistake.

Developed countries bear a significant historical responsibility for climate change, as they have built their economies and accumulated wealth through it. There is a compelling case in the Global South for affluent nations to step up and accelerate their efforts in reducing emissions and achieving net zero targets ahead of schedule.

Fairness in relation to climate action has long been a topic of debate. At the COP28 (Nov 2023) climate summit in Dubai, countries demonstrated their dedication to addressing the climate crisis by adopting a fund to assist nations most impacted and pledging an impressive $700 million dollars.

However, many nations vulnerable to climate change were left feeling deeply disappointed, as there was no provision for wealthy countries to enhance their financial contributions.

The data presented in this table highlights the required reductions in planetheating pollution that countries need to undertake to meet their share of emissions reductions by 2030. This analysis considers different factors, including countries' historical emissions and their financial ability to support climate initiatives.

The EU and the US are at the forefront when it comes to emissions, owing to their substantial historical contributions. In contrast, Nigeria bears less

historical responsibility for the climate crisis and has limited resources to tackle it due to poor management of them.

As the world arrives at a critical emissions crossroads, the urgency to pivot from peril to progress has never been clearer. With top polluters like China, the US, and the EU at the helm, the collective action or inaction will dictate the course of our climate's future. Despite notable strides towards renewable energy and emissions pledges, the pace must accelerate to steer clear of the impending 3-degree global warming threshold. This moment demands more than just commitment; it requires immediate, bold action to transform the global energy landscape.

Top 20 countries bloc polluters –2022 Climate action tracker- CNN Anete Choi

A drop in the bucket!

Despite the commendable efforts and pledges from multiple countries, the United Nations' Green Climate Fund fell short of its $10 billion goal at its second pledge conference in Bonn, Germany (October 5TH 2023).

The absence of renewed commitments from key nations like Australia, Italy, Sweden, Switzerland, and the US notably hindered the fund's ability to reach its target. Established in 2010, the Green Climate Fund represents a pivotal mechanism in assisting developing countries to mitigate and adapt to climate change impacts.

Its role is underscored by the historical pledges totaling $10.3 billion in 2014, followed by an additional $10 billion from 32 countries in 2019, and the latest pledges totaling $9.3 billion from 46 nations.

However, these financial contributions are a mere fraction of what is needed. The UN estimates that developing countries require around $200 billion annually until 2030 to adequately address climate change challenges.

The disparity between the pledged amounts and the actual financial needs highlights a significant gap in global climate finance efforts.

The reluctance of the world's leading polluters, particularly the US and China, to adequately support the fund further exacerbates this challenge.

While the US made a substantial initial pledge in 2014, subsequent renewals have been absent, and China has yet to contribute alongside other affluent nations.

Despite these shortcomings, countries like the UK, Germany, France, and Japan have demonstrated strong support, contributing a significant portion of the renewed funds.

The push for contributions from emerging economies and affluent Gulf states reflects a growing recognition of the shared responsibility in addressing global warming.

The narrative surrounding the Green Climate Fund is a microcosm of the larger climate finance landscape, characterized by ambitious goals, notable efforts, and significant financial shortfalls.

As the world grapples with escalating climate threats, financial commitment from affluent countries becomes increasingly critical.

The recent fundraising shortfall serves as both a reminder and a call to action for enhanced global cooperation and innovative financing mechanisms to ensure that developing nations receive the support they need to navigate the climate crisis.

The stark contrast between the funds raised and the UN's estimated requirements emphasizes the urgent need for a paradigm shift in climate finance, urging collective, decisive action to bridge the financial abyss looming over global climate efforts.

BILLIONS BLOWN UP!

The climate crisis is resulting in substantial economic damage because of severe weather occurrences. According to a study published in Nature Communications, the financial costs of extreme weather events have been steadily increasing over the past two decades.

The study estimates that the climate crisis is causing an astounding $16 million per hour in damages.

The study highlights the human impact of the climate crisis, noting that around 1.2 billion individuals experienced negative effects from climate change during that time.

According to a study, there has been a significant increase in annual losses, amounting to $140 billion, due to extreme weather events linked to climate change between 2000 and 2021.

The most recent data confirms significant costs amounting to $280 billion in 2022. The researchers highlighted that their estimates are likely to be significantly underestimated due to a scarcity of data, especially in lowincome countries.

The researchers highlighted the potential application of their methods in determining the necessary funding for a loss and damage fund. This could also quickly assess the precise climate impact of individual disasters, allowing for expedited allocation of funds.

The study was published in the journal Nature Communications and adopted a unique perspective by examining the impact of climate change on the intensity of extreme weather phenomena. The database collects data on various disasters, including those where a minimum of 10 people lost their lives, or 100 individuals were affected, or when a country declared a state of emergency or requested international assistance.

Latest findings estimated annual climate cost around $140-150 billion on average, with a potential range uptick to $230 billion.

The estimates provided surpass those generated by computer models, as they primarily rely on average global temperature changes rather than the escalating extreme temperatures observed during recent years with the most significant climate-related expenses.

Climate disasters’ ripple effects cascade

In 2023, the United States witnessed an unprecedented surge in billiondollar weather and climate disasters, with a staggering 28 distinct events causing damage exceeding $1 billion each.

This exceeds the previous record of 22 billion-dollar disasters established in 2020. There were a total of 17 severe storms, four flooding events, two tropical cyclones, two tornado outbreaks, one winter storm, one wildfire, and one drought and heat wave event that occurred.

The total cost of these disasters in 2023 amounted to $92.9 billion, and there is a possibility that this figure could increase as more costs are accounted for. There were at least 492 fatalities linked to these incidents. In 2023, the most expensive events were the drought and heat wave in the southern and midwestern regions, costing a staggering $14.5 billion. Additionally, the severe weather event in early March in the southern and eastern areas amounted to $6 billion.

The main idea is that climate disasters have far-reaching consequences on society and individuals, extending well beyond the initial event. This serves as a powerful illustration of the issue.

When people think about the aftermath of a natural disaster, they typically don't consider skin infections and gastrointestinal illnesses as the main concerns. However, these conditions are intertwined with a series of farreaching and sometimes unforeseen repercussions of wildfires, hurricanes, and other disasters linked to climate change.

The Atlas of Disaster was developed by Rebuild by Design, a publicprivate partnership that emerged from the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy in 2012 They worked alongside APTIM and parametric, with a remarkable team of engineers, researchers, finance experts, data managers, and volunteers. Together, they diligently gathered, examined, and consolidated various data sets and ideas to create a comprehensive compilation of climate impacts on a county-by-county basis.

The Atlas of Disaster offers comprehensive information on disaster declarations, FEMA payouts, energy reliability, social vulnerability indices, and areas prone to power outages. Its goal is to increase awareness about the effects of different disasters, such as extreme weather events, on communities nationwide.

WILD WEATHER ON TRIAL

The connection between climate change and extreme weather events is gaining attention among scientists, with the potential to affect court cases, insurance claims, and public policy. In 2004, a study published in Nature highlighted the increased likelihood of record-breaking heat waves due to human influence. Interest surged following the devastating impact of Superstorm Sandy on New York City and New Jersey in October 2012. However, many researchers were still hesitant to discuss the potential influence of climate change on a specific storm.

Technological advancements have simplified the process of isolating the impact of climate change, with cloud services allowing researchers to work from home using just a laptop. This has led to significant improvements in accuracy and resolution, providing more precise information about specific locations.

Two different methods emerged: probabilistic event attribution and the conditional or "storyline" approach.

Probabilistic event attribution calculates the extent to which human behavior has influenced the likelihood of a specific type of event, like a heat wave.

The conditional or "storyline" approach raises inquiries about specific incidents, such as the increased intensity of rainfall during a specific storm.

In 2017, the field saw significant progress when Hurricane Harvey lingered over the greater Houston area, resulting in record-breaking rainfall of up to 60 inches in some places. The WWA focuses on addressing incidents that have a widespread impact on communities while also making efforts to provide coverage across various regions.

Exploring uncharted scientific territory is also a consideration, as the WWA made the decision to exclude the analysis of the Arctic blast that exposed millions of Americans to frigid temperatures during the 2022 holiday season.

The World Weather Organisation (WWA) has been studying attribution science for years, using computer models to analyze climate events and their impacts. Their findings revealed that climate change significantly increased the likelihood of heat waves occurring, making them 60 times more probable.

However, experts argue that climate scientists may not fully convey the gravity of their findings, particularly as the field transitions from academia to public forums, including court cases.

The work of the WWA has had an impact on at least one ruling, with the 2019–2020 bushfires in Australia finding that climate change significantly contributed to a nine-fold increase in the overall seasonal fire risk. In 2021, an Australian court considered this outcome when it ruled that the New South Wales Environment Protection Agency had not fulfilled its duty to safeguard the environment, thus mandating the state to decrease greenhouse gas emissions.

With the increasing frequency of extreme weather events, it is becoming increasingly challenging to stay on top of things. The WWA made the decision to not study the deluges due to the overwhelming demand for attribution work, which is exceeding their capacity. Michael Wehner, a climate scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, and his collaborator, Kevin Reed of Stony Brook University, are working diligently to conduct attribution studies in nearly real time.

With the rapid advancement of attribution science, there is a significant opportunity to contribute to society by better preparing for increased risks, providing valuable insights for building codes and emphasizing the urgent need for substantial reductions in emissions. Professional engineering associations are already embracing adaptive designs, and California and other progressive states are actively researching ways to integrate climate data into their infrastructure strategies.

SCORCHING HEAT IS FATAL

Extreme heat poses a major risk to human health, as evidenced by the EPA's report of 11,000 heat-related deaths in the U.S. from 1979 to 2020. It is important to note that this number may be even higher due to cases where heat exposure was not recognized as the cause of death.

Heat is a significant contributor to weather-related fatalities in the United States, surpassing the combined average of deaths caused by hurricanes and tornadoes over the past three decades.

Heat exhaustion and heat stroke are severe conditions resulting from excessive heat exposure, with potentially life-threatening consequences.

Heat can worsen certain preexisting conditions or cardiovascular diseases, such as strokes and heart attacks. Another type of heat stroke can impact athletes, as the physiological effects of exercise can lead to an uncontrollable increase in body temperature that requires immediate medical intervention.

One of the primary causes of bodily harm due to heat is water. The body's water balance is delicate and sensitive, and it is greatly influenced by the surrounding air through the skin and breathing.

During periods of high temperatures, the loss of water from the body can occur at such a rapid rate through evaporation from the skin and respiration that it becomes difficult to replenish it in a timely manner. Understanding the process of sweat evaporation is crucial in maintaining proper hydration levels.

The balance of water in our bodies is crucial for the proper functioning of our organs and cells. When we don't have enough water, it can lead to a decrease in blood volume, which can have detrimental effects on our organs and potentially result in damage or failure.

Cells can also die when they lack the necessary volume to circulate and deliver oxygen, which is vital for their functioning.

Based on research, it is estimated that the upper limit of the human body's thermoneutral zone, which refers to the range of ambient temperatures where the body can effectively regulate its temperature and maintain equilibrium, is believed to be between 40 and 50 degrees Celsius.

Given the changing climate, it is crucial for individuals to make necessary adjustments to ensure their survival. This year, the residents of Phoenix, Arizona endured an unprecedented heatwave, with 31 consecutive days of scorching temperatures reaching or exceeding 43.3 degrees Celsius. This extreme heat broke records globally, making it the hottest period ever recorded.

To mention only USA as an example -Arizona- could potentially become unsuitable for human habitation, while other areas will experience increased population movement to northern states.

It's difficult to envision how the human body will adjust to the basic biological realities of heat and evaporation, considering that extreme heat has the potential to cause a widespread extinction event for life on Earth.

My Final Bottle of Champagne

With the increasing global temperatures, the future of champagne production is at risk, potentially leading to a significant change in the production of this beloved beverage.

ClimateAi, a Silicon Valley startup, has shed light on the delicate situation surrounding the three main grape varieties used in champagne production.

The changing climate is having a significant impact on weather patterns in well-known wine-growing regions, such as Champagne in northern east of France. According to extensive research conducted by ClimateAi, there is a concerning prediction for the future of champagne and sparkling wine grapes worldwide.

By 2050, these beloved grape varieties may face the risk of disappearing. This forecast is based on the analysis of global climate models, satellite imagery, and field data.

The findings paint a bleak picture for wine grape regions, indicating a significant decline in their suitability for cultivation. Based on current projections, we are on track to exceed this critical threshold within the next century.

A 4-degree rise in temperature has the potential to make most of the existing wine-producing regions no longer suitable for cultivation. And at the moment the consensus is already in the 2.5-3 degree zone

The captivating charm of champagne, stemming from its intricate blend of warmth and coolness, is at risk of being disturbed as increasing temperatures disrupt this delicate balance.

In 2023, global wine production reached a record low, primarily due to extreme weather events as reported by the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV).

In 2022, France's Champagne region faced its smallest harvest since 1957, highlighting the significant financial losses caused by climate variability.

However, it also drives the industry to constantly innovate and explore new regions to produce exceptional wines.

By 2050, this could mean the potential decline of traditional French champagne and the emergence of new wine powerhouses, like Sweden, expected to become a major player in "champagne" production.

It is a significant turning point in the story of wine. It gnal the end of traditional champagne and the beginning of Swedish "champagne,"(?) showcasing the industry's ability to adapt in the face of climate change.

Well Swedish ladies will enjoy but not really the French ones!

PART 3

RESILIENCE & PERSISTENCE

7 principles for an unstoppable transition

A McKinsey report titled "An Affordable, Reliable, Competitive Path to Net Zero" provides a comprehensive analysis of the complexities and critical challenges involved in achieving the ambitious goals of the Paris Agreement on a global scale.

Despite significant progress in the adoption of renewable energy, with renewables making up 86% of capacity additions in 2023, the report emphasizes the global challenge of achieving net zero emissions by the middle of the century.

This gap highlights the pressing nature of the situation and the need for a comprehensive approach to tackle it.

Central to the discussion is the understanding that achieving net zero goes beyond reducing emissions. It also requires addressing energy affordability, reliability, and industrial competitiveness.

Navigating these interconnected objectives simultaneously is crucial to prevent worsening the global economic divide and derailing the momentum of the transition.

According to McKinsey's analysis, if the transition is not done well, it could lead to higher prices for energy and other important resources, weaken the reliability of energy supplies, and reduce the competitiveness of nations and industries worldwide.

The report presents seven guiding principles that aim to promote a more cohesive and streamlined transition.

These principles highlight the importance of implementing cost-effective solutions, utilising creative financial methods to allocate capital effectively, and developing strategies to address challenges related to materials, labour, and infrastructure.

In addition, they support the need to reassess energy markets and planning methods to adapt to the increasing dependence on electricity in a decarbonised world.

McKinsey's narrative presents a compelling case for a fundamental change in our approach to the net-zero transition. It requires going beyond ambitious global commitments to cultivating a mindset of ongoing, practical advancement that tackles the economic and environmental aspects of the transition in a comprehensive manner.

This involves not just speeding up the use of renewable energy technologies, but also making sure that these solutions promote economic empowerment worldwide and do not unfairly burden developing nations.

In addition, the report highlights the important role of technological innovation and global collaboration in reducing the costs of costly solutions, making them more accessible and viable worldwide.

It highlights the importance of implementing policies that encourage the use of environmentally friendly technologies and create a supportive atmosphere for research, development, and the implementation of creative solutions.

Ultimately, "An Affordable, Reliable, Competitive Path to Net Zero" is a crucial analysis that resonates with policymakers, industry leaders, and stakeholders worldwide. This text emphasises the importance of taking immediate action towards a sustainable and inclusive energy future.

It highlights the need for careful navigation of the complexities involved in this transition, while also emphasising the importance of foresight, ingenuity, and unwavering commitment to our shared environmental and economic goals.

IRENA REPORT

Renewable Progress & Challenges

Amidst a crucial year for renewable energy, the "Renewable Capacity Statistics 2024" report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) reveals a landscape filled with striking differences and promising prospects.

The report documents an unprecedented increase of 473 gigawatts (GW) in global renewable power capacity, resulting in a remarkable total of 3,870 GW. However, beneath these headline figures, there is a story of uneven progress and untapped potential, which is especially significant for many countries that are struggling to keep up with the energy transition.

Asia, with China's significant capacity increase to 297.6 GW, dominates the year's renewable expansion, emphasising the disparity between regions and emphasising the development gap. Although renewable energy sources have seen significant growth, the current distribution of this growth indicates that we still have a long way to go to meet the ambitious target of tripling renewable power by 2030.

This discrepancy not only highlights a lost chance for addressing climate change but also emphasises the social and economic inequalities among countries.

The narrative presented in the 2024 report urges for a united, worldwide effort. According to Francesco La Camera, the Director-General of IRENA, renewables are the only technology that can effectively align with the goals of the Paris Agreement on a large scale.

However, the current trajectory is not meeting the goal of achieving 7.2 terawatts (TW) of renewable power within the next seven years. This gap calls for immediate policy interventions and a realignment of global efforts towards generating value and opportunity in emerging market and developing economies.

The current trajectory we are on, characterised by a concentration of technology and resources in specific areas, poses a significant risk of deepening the gap in decarbonisation efforts. This puts at stake our shared objective of achieving a tripling target.

The significant growth in renewable energy, particularly solar and wind power, highlights the immense technological potential available to us.

For environmental policy specialist, it is crucial to emphasise the importance of international collaboration and financing to overcome these challenges.

Developing countries, at the forefront of this conversation, need investments in power infrastructure, generation, flexibility, and storage to transition towards a more sustainable future.

Building strong institutions, implementing effective policies, and fostering necessary skills are crucial for achieving our goal of tripling renewable capacity by 2030. This will ensure that the transition to clean energy is fair and accessible to all.

Ultimately, the achievements of 2023 highlight the importance of a fair and comprehensive shift towards renewable energy. Working towards a more sustainable future necessitates a strong dedication and a united front that places the well-being of the most vulnerable at the forefront.

The way forward is not through isolation, but by embracing a collective vision that harnesses the abundance of renewable resources for everyone. This ensures that the transition to clean energy benefits everyone and creates a positive impact for all.

CLIMATE FINANCE BET: TRILLIONS

Climate finance involves the funding that helps support efforts to combat climate change, including both reducing emissions and adapting to its impacts. This funding can come from a variety of sources, including public, private, and alternative sources.

It prioritises enhancing current infrastructure and practices to increase the resilience of communities in the face of evolving climate conditions. A significant portion of public climate finance is provided through debt, typically in the form of loans, with governments and multilateral institutions being responsible for approximately half of this financial support.

Development finance institutions, including the United Nations' Green Climate Fund (GCF) and the World Bank, have made significant contributions, with nearly $30 billion in pledges raised from numerous countries. Private enterprises contribute the other half of climate financing.

Estimates differ, but they all surpass trillions of dollars annually. According to the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero, achieving net-zero emissions will necessitate a substantial investment of $125 trillion by 2050, equivalent to an annual expenditure of around $5 trillion.

Preparing developing countries for extreme weather and other consequences of climate change could require a significant investment of $300 billion annually by 2030. However, the current level of spending falls significantly short of what is needed, particularly for impoverished nations to adequately safeguard themselves.

Climate-related damages can have a significant economic impact on smaller island nations. These countries, despite contributing the least to greenhouse gas emissions, often bear the brunt of climate change due to their geographical location and limited financial and institutional infrastructure.

Washington countries pledged to mobilise $100 billion in annual climate finance for low-income countries by 2020, but they only managed to gather $83 billion that year. Now, they are considering a plan to increase those commitments to $1 trillion annually, even though they have not achieved the smaller goal.

Even if affluent nations fully commit to and achieve the overarching objective, they will still not meet the climate finance requirements of developing countries, which the United Nations predicts will reach a minimum of $6 trillion by 203

Climate finance covers a wide range of projects and initiatives that aim to reduce the effects of climate change. Nevertheless, the majority of climate financing funds are allocated towards mitigation efforts, making up approximately 90% of the total financing in 2021.

In contrast, climate adaptation accounts for approximately 7% of overall financing. The imbalance stems from the challenge of defining climate adaptation projects, which are highly dependent on specific contexts.

Efforts to address climate change are primarily directed towards the energy sector, which is responsible for the highest emissions of fossil fuels, the main contributor to global warming.

President Joe Biden recently signed the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which aims to enhance domestic manufacturing capacity for clean energy and other climate-related programmes.This legislation allocates a significant amount of federal tax credits, loans, and research grants towards this cause.

Market-driven solutions are becoming increasingly popular, such as the implementation of tradable carbon credits and debt-for-nature swaps. These innovative approaches help alleviate sovereign debt while promoting conservation efforts. Nevertheless, there is a lack of universally accepted guidelines for climate finance, resulting in discrepancies between the investment figures reported by countries and those calculated by nonprofit organisations monitoring these initiatives (next page Ene

Market-driven solutions are becoming increasingly popular, such as the implementation of tradable carbon credits and debt-for-nature swaps. These innovative approaches help alleviate sovereign debt while promoting conservation efforts.

Nevertheless, there is a lack of universally accepted guidelines for climate finance, resulting in discrepancies between the investment figures reported by countries and those calculated by nonprofit organisations monitoring these initiatives. One of the key obstacles to climate financing involves securing adequate funding, strengthening institutional capacity, and establishing effective accountability mechanisms.

There is often a lack of funding, particularly in low-income countries, and many impoverished nations struggle with the financial infrastructure needed to effectively utilise large foreign investments for productive projects.

Institutional capacity is a significant concern, as numerous Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) currently face challenges in facilitating the world's climate finance needs.

Studies indicate that a significant portion of MDB funding is primarily directed towards climate mitigation efforts, rather than addressing the need to help businesses and communities adapt to climate risks.

Energy Secretary Jenniger Ghranhold announcing 6 Billion Grant to reduce emissions

Climate finance was a key topic of discussion at the 2023 UN climate conference, COP28. Experts suggest that implementing risk-sharing strategies that combine public and private funding could encourage commercial lenders to be more supportive of climate projects.

It is important for climate funds, like the GCF, to enhance their grants to national and local institutions in developing countries.

This would enable these countries to have direct access to funds and maintain local ownership of the projects.

CAT BONDS TO ROAR!

Risk-linked securities, called catastrophe bonds or cat bonds, allow sponsors to transfer a defined set of risks to investors. They were established in the mid-1990s following the occurrence of Hurricane Andrew and the Northridge earthquake. Insurance companies turned to catastrophe bonds as a solution to mitigate the potential risks they could face in the event of a major catastrophe.

These bonds provide a way for them to manage damages that may exceed the premiums they have collected. An insurance company issues bonds through an investment bank, which are subsequently sold to investors.

Typically, these bonds carry a higher level of risk, often falling in the BB range, and tend to have shorter maturities, usually less than 3 years. If no disaster took place, the insurance company would provide a coupon to the investors.

If a catastrophe were to happen, the principal would be forgiven and the insurance company would utilise this money to compensate their claimholders.

Catastrophe bonds are typically designed as floating-rate bonds where the principal is at risk if certain predetermined conditions are met. When activated, the principal is transferred to the sponsor. The triggers are associated with significant natural disasters. Catastrophe bonds are utilised by insurers as a substitute for conventional catastrophe reinsurance.

For instance, if an insurer has accumulated a collection of risks by insuring properties in Florida, it may desire to transfer some of this risk to ensure its financial stability in the event of a major hurricane. One option is to opt for traditional catastrophe reinsurance, transferring the risk to reinsurers. Alternatively, it could consider sponsoring a cat bond, shifting the risk to

investors. After consulting with an investment bank, a special purpose entity would be established to issue the cat bond. Investors would purchase the bond, potentially receiving a coupon of LIBOR plus a spread, typically ranging from 3 to 20%. If Florida were to avoid any hurricanes, the investors would be able to achieve a positive return on their investment.

If a hurricane were to strike Florida and activate the cat bond, the funds initially provided by investors would be transferred to the sponsor to cover policyholder claims. The bond would be considered in default and result in a loss for investors.Special purpose reinsurance contracts, known as cat bonds, are issued by companies based in the Cayman Islands, Bermuda, or Ireland.

These contracts usually engage in one or more reinsurance treaties to safeguard buyers, typically insurers (referred to as "cedants") or reinsurers (referred to as "retrocedents"). There are certain bonds that provide coverage for the possibility of multiple losses.

For instance, there was the issuance of the Atlas Re bond in 1999, followed by the Atlas II bond in 2001, and then additional bonds that were triggered by fourth through ninth losses. In 2007, Nephila, an asset manager, issued the first actively managed pool of bonds and other contracts known as Gamut.

There are four basic types of trigger for cat bonds: indemnity, modelled loss, indexed to industry loss, and parametric index. Indexed loss occurs when the insurance industry experiences a loss from a specific event that surpasses a predetermined threshold, such as $30 billion.

The parametric index is derived from natural hazards, like wind speed or ground acceleration, and is utilised to estimate the potential loss based on the intensity at various locations.

This function serves as a combination of Parametric and Modelled loss bonds, resulting in reduced basis risk and improved transparency.Market participants for catastrophe bonds include insurers, reinsurers, corporations, and government agencies.

Some of the frequent issuers are USAA, Scor SE, Swiss Re, Munich Re, Liberty Mutual, Hannover Re, Allianz, and Tokio Marine Nichido. Mexico has been at the forefront of issuing cat bonds, while the World Bank has also made significant strides in this area.

So far, all direct catastrophe bond investors have primarily consisted of institutional investors such as specialised catastrophe bond funds, hedge funds, investment advisors, life insurers, reinsurers, pension funds, and others.

Catastrophe bonds, or cat bonds, represent a creative financial maneuver within the insurance industry to distribute risk and maintain economic stability in the face of natural disasters.

Their presence offers a win-win situation: insurance companies gain protection against overwhelming losses, and investors have the opportunity for high yields assuming disaster doesn't strike.

While the risk is undeniable, the strategic use of cat bonds reflects an innovative approach to managing the financial impacts of catastrophic events.

This market dynamism underscores the resilience and adaptability of financial markets to address real-world challenges.

Ecocide: Imminent Codification in EU Law

The draft legislation defines ecocide as "unlawful or wanton acts committed with the awareness that there is a significant probability of causing severe and either widespread or long-term harm to the environment as a result of those actions."

This description highlights the heedless indifference that results in significant detrimental alterations, disturbance, or damage to any aspect of the environment, surpassing a restricted geographical region and impacting ecological systems, animals, or human communities.

The primary objective of the proposed legislation pertaining to ecocide is to establish legal penalties for significant environmental damages that are analogous to ecocide, with the goal of deterring and penalising the gravest offences committed against the environment.

The overarching objective is to establish a legislative structure that serves as a deterrent and imposes penalties for activities resulting in significant and enduring harm to the environment. This framework aims to foster more responsibility and safeguarding of the natural world, both inside the European Union and potentially in other regions as well.

The historical origins of the idea of ecocide are evident, as exemplified by notable occurrences such as the utilisation of Agent Orange during the Vietnam War, the devastation of the Amazon Rainforest, and the Deepwater Horizon oil leak, which are frequently cited as instances of ecocide.

The movement to make ecocide a criminal offence has gained traction over time, with prominent individuals such as Pope Francis and Greta Thunberg campaigning for its acknowledgment as a global crime. The formulation of legal concepts and suggested definitions

Proposed Legislation: The European Union is revising its environmental legislation to make extreme environmental harms, such as activities that destroy or create significant damage to the environment, equivalent to ecocide, illegal. Offenders may be subject to a minimum prison sentence of ten years, while companies might be subject to substantial fines. The new EU regulations encompass a broad spectrum of activities that have the potential to cause harm to the environment, including mining, resource extraction, oil spills, and the release of hazardous compounds such as PFAS. The primary objective of the legislation is to establish responsibility for persons and businesses involved in the instigation, facilitation, or support of environmental offense.

The proposed legislation mandates that ecocidal activities must encompass a state of reckless disregard that results in significant detrimental alterations or harm to the environment. This harm must extend beyond a restricted geographical region and have an impact on several aspects such as ecosystems, species, or human populations.

The proposed legislation permits the legal pursuit of those suspected of ecocide in any location, ranging from the Earth's biosphere to outer space.

UN GLOBAL PLASTICS TREATY

In the face of the worsening problem of plastic pollution, the United Nations Environment Assembly's dedication to creating a legally enforceable Global Plastics Treaty is seen as a source of optimism (UN Session 8th April 2024).

This innovative endeavor, signifies a crucial juncture in the worldwide battle against plastic pollution. The treaty seeks to tackle the problem at its core by shifting from fragmented national initiatives to a cohesive global approach that emphasizes the pressing need and magnitude of the reaction necessary to reduce the harmful effects of plastic.

The issue of plastic pollution is widespread and crosses national borders, requiring a unified global effort to address it. The development of the Global Plastics Treaty demonstrates the global community's acknowledgment of the seriousness of the situation and their willingness to take decisive and united measures.

The pact aims to provide a comprehensive framework that addresses plastic pollution throughout the whole lifecycle, from manufacturing to disposal.

The proposed treaty serves not just as a regulatory instrument, but also as a driver for innovation, sustainable development, and social equity. The statement acknowledges the interconnectedness between the battle against plastic pollution and wider environmental, economic, and social issues.

The UN Environment Assembly aims to synchronise worldwide endeavors by means of the treaty, by boosting technical innovation, improving recycling and waste management infrastructures, and fostering the advancement of alternative materials.

The treaty's focus on diminishing plastic manufacturing is in line with the urgent requirement to shift into a circular economy. By promoting a transition from a linear "take-make-dispose" model to a more sustainable strategy that emphasises reuse, recycling, and minimal environmental harm, the treaty has the capacity to transform the global economy.

Although the process of signing and implementing the treaty may be intricate and time-consuming, the early actions done on this day demonstrate a shared dedication to creating a cleaner, healthier, and more sustainable planet.

The UN Global Plastics Treaty serves as a demonstration of the potential accomplishments that can arise when states unite in pursuit of a shared objective. It provides a tangible strategy to decrease plastic pollution, preserve the environment, and ensure the well-being of humans.

The path ahead presents challenges, yet through worldwide collaboration the treaty has the potential to initiate a new epoch in our interaction with plastic, converting a catastrophe into global environmental guardianship.

Population bomb: Defused

In 1972, the "Club of Rome" unveiled a groundbreaking study titled "The Limits to Growth," presenting a narrative that remains remarkably prescient today. This pivotal report brought to light the precarious balance between humanity's economic ambitions and the finite resources of our planet.

It argued that Earth's intricate network of natural systems our global lifeline might not sustain the relentless pace of economic expansion and population growth beyond the year 2100, perhaps even sooner, despite advancements in technology. This analysis was initiated in the summer of 1970 by an international consortium of scholars from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Their research focused on five key determinants—population growth, agricultural productivity, depletion of nonrenewable resources, industrial output, and pollution—that collectively and interactively set the bounds for Earth's capacity to accommodate growth.

At the heart of the debate then was the stark warning of a "population bomb," a term that captured the global imagination with its dire predictions. However, a recent report challenges this narrative, suggesting that an exponential increase in birthrates is not only unlikely but that global population figures are expected to stabilize and then decline within this century.

This shift in perspective is attributed to a "paradigm shift in demographics" over the past fifty years, which has seen population growth rates significantly decelerate from what was once anticipated iin a 1968 publication, "The Population Bomb."

While the forecast of a global population reaching eight billion has come to pass, fears of a surge to 16 billion are unfounded. Instead, projections now indicate that we may not even breach the nine billion mark before witnessing a reversal in population trends.

The report optimistically forecasts that with increased investment in economic development, education, and health, the global population could stabilize at a level where sustainable access to essential resources like clean energy, food, and water is achievable for all. This outcome, the report heralds, would effectively "defuse" the population bomb. Yet, the narrative

does not end there. The challenge of environmental sustainability persists, necessitating a profound reevaluation of our current models of consumption and production, which pose a greater threat than population growth itself.

Looking ahead, we are presented with a binary choice: continue with business as usual, risking societal collapse in the world's most ecologically and politically fragile regions, or pivot towards a model that levies taxes on the wealthy to fund social services and education, potentially benefiting both the environment and human rights.

The specter of overpopulation, once feared as Earth's undoing, has been recast. The real peril lies not in the number of people but in the decisions made by those in power. The path we choose now will determine the fate of our planet, not the phantom of overpopulation.

Part 4

INNOVATIONS & solutions

CLIMATE TECH: A 10-YEAR-OLD INFANT

Climate tech ventures arise in 2014, crucial for sustainable growth, confront unique challenges unlike those faced by the high-tech sector.

These ventures are inherently capital-intensive, requiring significant investment early in their lifecycle for development and scaling, with a longer time horizon to break even.

Unlike asset-light businesses, climate tech solutions, including green steel, carbon removal, and renewable energy production and storage, face greater commercial uncertainty and depend heavily on developments and decisions across their value chain.

This complex scenario places them in a tricky position, making them less suitable for traditional venture capital due to their extensive capital needs and prolonged profitability timeline, while also not fitting neatly into private equity or bank financing models.

Despite these hurdles, some climate tech companies are beginning to secure crucial capital, demonstrating that it's possible to achieve profitable performance.

The pathway to scaling these businesses involves acknowledging the unique challenges they face, including higher capital intensity and greater complexity in achieving scalability compared to tech companies.

Solutions exist and are technically feasible, supported by favorable regulatory tailwinds and the potential for significant private capital contribution to the green transition.

Addressing these challenges requires a multi-faceted approach: derisking the business case by demonstrating that technological solutions are viable and based on sound engineering; creatively leveraging financing options, including taking advantage of public incentives; and scaling operations more swiftly.

This involves securing supply chains, establishing offtake agreements, and building strong partnerships across the industry. By demonstrating clear, bankable business plans and engaging in strategic planning beyond traditional horizons, climate tech ventures can navigate their unique landscape.

The journey is fraught with difficulties, but with the right strategies and support, climate tech has the potential to fulfill its critical role in achieving a sustainable future.

11 Climate tech sectors

Certainly, the climate tech domain encompasses a wide range of sectors, each targeting specific aspects of sustainability and environmental impact mitigation. Here are the key sectors within the climate tech domain:

Renewable Energy: Focuses on generating electricity from renewable sources such as solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal energy.

Green Hydrogen: Involves the production of hydrogen through environmentally friendly methods, mainly through the electrolysis of water using renewable energy sources.

Carbon Capture, Use, and Storage (CCUS): Technologies designed to capture carbon dioxide emissions from sources like power plants and

industrial processes, either storing it underground or utilizing it in various applications.

Electrification of Transport: Encompasses electric vehicles (EVs), charging infrastructure, and the development of electric public transport systems to reduce dependence on fossil fuels.

Sustainable Agriculture and Food Systems: Technologies and practices aimed at reducing the environmental footprint of farming and food production, including precision agriculture, alternative proteins, and sustainable aquaculture.

Circular Economy: Focuses on reducing waste and promoting the reuse, repair, recycling, and refurbishing of materials and products throughout their lifecycle.

Water Management and Conservation: Technologies aimed at improving water efficiency, treatment, recycling, and management to address scarcity and pollution.

Waste Management and Recycling: Solutions for reducing waste generation, enhancing recycling processes, and converting waste into energy or other valuable products.

Energy Efficiency: Technologies and practices aimed at reducing energy consumption and improving efficiency in buildings, industrial processes, and appliances.

Green Building and Urban Infrastructure: Involves the design, construction, and operation of buildings and urban infrastructure in an environmentally responsible and resourceefficient manner.

Climate Resilience and Adaptation: Solutions aimed at enhancing the ability of communities, ecosystems, and economies to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change.

These 11 sectors collectively contribute to the mitigation of climate change and the transition towards a more sustainable and low-carbon global economy.

TEN ai variant Climate SOLUTIONS

AI is driving crucial advances in our present efforts to address climate change, humanity’s most pressing challenge.

As per the World Health Organization, about 4 billion people currently reside in regions that are extremely susceptible to the effects of climate change. Here are eight examples of how artificial intelligence is already addressing climate change.

1. AI has been trained to detect changes in icebergs; it can determine where and how quickly they melt. This facilitate scientific understanding of the amount of iceberg meltwater released into the ocean, a process that is accelerated by atmospheric warming brought on by climate change. According to researchers at the University of Leeds in the United Kingdom, enormous Antarctic icebergs can be mapped in satellite pictures by artificial intelligence (AI) in as little as 1/100th of a second. This is a laborious and time-consuming task for humans, and it is challenging to distinguish icebergs from sea ice and cloud cover.

2. Using AI to map deforestation. Mapping the effects of deforestation on the climate issue also makes use of artificial intelligence, satellite imagery, and ecological knowledge.

Edinburgh, Scotland-based Space Intelligence claims to be operating in over 30 nations and to have used satellite data to map over a million hectares of land from space. Using remote technology, the company evaluates indicators including the pace of deforestation and the amount of carbon stored in forests.

3. AI is assisting African communities facing climatic risks. AI is being deployed in Africa as part of a UN initiative to support people at risk from climate change. The IKI Project makes use of artificial intelligence (AI) to forecast weather patterns, enabling governments and communities to more effectively prepare for and respond to climate change. This entails expanding the availability of clean energy, putting in place efficient waste management procedures, and promoting reforestation.

4. Recycling more waste with AI By improving the effectiveness of waste management According to the US Environmental Protection Agency, waste is

a major source of methane and accounts for 16% of greenhouse gas emissions worldwide.

Greyparrot, a London,based software business, has developed an AI solution.in 2022 it tracked 32 billion waste items across 67 waste types and found that, on average, 86 tonnes of material that could be salvaged were being disposed of in landfills.

Systems that detect plastic waste in the ocean are among the ones that AI is assisting in the climate fight.

5. AI is making the ocean cleaner like for “The Ocean Cleanup”, an environmental organisation in the Netherlands, to help remove plastic trash from the ocean.The organisation is using AI in remote regions to detect and produce precise maps of ocean waste. After that, the ocean waste is collected and removed.

6. AI aids in climate disaster prediction .Sipremo, a Brazilian firm, uses artificial intelligence (AI) to forecast the location, timing, and nature of climate disasters in São Paulo.

To better prepare for climate change and the increasing difficulties it poses for communities, the goal is to assist governments and businesses.

The company's research of disaster situations and aspects like air quality can help determine whether to postpone or halt activities. It works in the insurance, energy, logistics, and sports industries.

7. An agenda of desired AI climate tools. Google's AI research department, DeepMind, claims to be using AI to combat climate change in a variety of ways. Creating an exhaustive catalogue of datasets that would promote worldwide artificial intelligence solutions for climate change is part of this.

Climate Change AI, a non-profit founded by volunteers from academia and business who believe machine learning is essential to addressing climate change, is collaborating with Google DeepMind on this project. Additional AI capabilities from Google are aimed at enhancing weather prediction and raising the value of wind energy through more accurate production prediction from wind farms.

8. How AI Assist in decarbonising industry. Businesses in the mining, oil, and gas, as well as the metals industries, are using AI to help them decarbonise their operations.

The California-based startup Eugenie.ai has created an emissions-tracking technology that integrates data from machines and processes with satellite imagery. AI then uses this data to analyse and help businesses track, trace, and cut emissions by 20–30%.

Globally, the industrial sector is responsible for about 30% of greenhouse gas emissions.

9. Dust storms increase the risk of death from cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. To improve forecasting, atmospheric scientist Jin Jianbing and his team developed with AI the Dust Assimilation and Prediction System (DAPS), to enhance predictions.

DAPS covers five East Asian countries and provides detailed predictions on a microgram scale. Climate change may have an unexpected mitigating effect on dust storms, but international collaboration and anti-desertification efforts are crucial.

10- Ai for Flood Forecasting – see next chapter

While these Ten AI-driven initiatives exemplify significant strides in combating climate change, they represent just the beginning.

With its ability to analyze complex data at unprecedented speeds, AI is not only enhancing our current capabilities but is also paving the way for rapid advancements in our fight against this urgent global challenge.

AI-Driven Flood Forecasting

Nature research (20.3.2024) "Global prediction of extreme floods in ungauged watersheds" highlights a breakthrough in flood forecasting by AI, specifically employing Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks.

This method's advantage over traditional models is its ability to predict extreme riverine events in ungauged watersheds with high accuracy up to five days in advance. It has demonstrated reliability comparable to or even better than the nowcasts produced by the current state-of-the-art global modelling system, which have zero-day lead time. (source Marsh Mac lennan)

The LSTM network is a specialised type of recurrent neural network (RNN) that effectively tackles the issue of the vanishing gradient problem commonly found in standard RNNs.

This unique characteristic makes it highly suitable for capturing and modelling long-term dependencies. For this study, LSTMs were utilised to forecast daily streamflow for a 7-day period.

Using random k-fold cross-validation across 5,680 streamflow gauges, the model was trained and tested out-of-sample. This resulted in noteworthy advancements in the accuracy of predicting flood events in ungauged basins.

The AI forecast model developed represents a significant advancement in global flood awareness and management, with a particular focus on regions that are highly susceptible to flooding but have limited streamflow gauge networks.

Research Example

An interesting example of the LSTM method's application is its integration into an early warning system, which is currently generating real-time forecasts in more than 80 countries.

This system is available to everyone, with the goal of offering precise predictions of severe occurrences worldwide. The LSTM-based AI model has demonstrated impressive reliability in predicting extreme flood events, which increases the amount of time we have to prepare for these events and improves the accuracy of flood predictions for significant return period events. This advancement results in improved readiness and potentially lifesaving interventions in regions susceptible to flooding.

Viewing Through an Environmental Science Lens

From a scientific standpoint, this research highlights the importance of utilising innovative technologies such as AI to tackle intricate natural occurrences like floods.

Utilising LSTM networks for flood forecasting is a groundbreaking approach that has the potential to enhance global flood resilience by effectively utilising data from ungauged basins. It is crucial to emphasise the importance of increasing the availability and sharing of hydrological data to improve the accuracy of flood warnings worldwide.

Overall, the LSTM-based AI system offers a highly precise, up-to-date, and universally available solution for forecasting floods, which is particularly vital for areas without monitoring stations.

This development not only aids in the immediate response to floods, but also enhances long-term planning and preparedness strategies. It represents a notable progress in the global endeavour to reduce the effects of climate change on at-risk communities.

Bioenergy: $500 Billion Debate

Traditional bioenergy practices, such as burning fuelwood for cooking and heating and producing liquid biofuels for road transport, have negative impacts on the environment and food supply.

However, modern bioenergy relies on waste materials, including residues from farming, forestry, municipal, and industrial waste. By utilizing cuttingedge technologies, waste can be transformed into renewable, carbonneutral, and highly versatile energy resources.

Currently, only a third of the available resource is being used by the world, which amounts to 45 exajoules (EJ) or 7% of the global primary energy supply. The rest of the resource remains unutilized, and instead, we rely on fossil fuels to make up for the shortfall. In our net zero scenario, the projected energy supply is expected to reach 103 EJ by 2050, accounting for 20% of the global energy supply and 59% of the total bioenergy potential of 175 EJ.

This will result in a significant reduction in global emissions, amounting to 8.3 Bt CO2, equivalent to 22% of current emissions.Solid residues can be transformed into various types of fuels, such as extracting syngas, biocrude, high-temperature heat for heavy industry, and power generation.

Biogas can be produced by anaerobic digestion of livestock waste and wastewater, making it a viable option for converting liquid wastes. Biogas can be refined into biomethane, a carbon-neutral fuel chemically identical to natural gas.

The conversion of fat and oil residues, as well as energy crops, into bioethanol and biodiesel is already a well-established practice, accounting for approximately 10% of the current global transport fuel supply. However, the issue lies not primarily with the demand for these fuels, but rather with the supply.

Unlocking bioenergy at scale depends less on technological advancements, as many pathways are already well-established and financially feasible. Liquid waste poses a distinct problem, as most of the liquids transported would primarily consist of water. Instead, liquids-to-energy conversions utilise existing wastewater infrastructure by constructing biodigesters near livestock farms or within water treatment facilities.

Despite the potential of bioenergy, there are challenges when it comes to scaling up. There will always be a maximum supply limit, determined by the amount of waste generated by other sectors.

The feedstock market lacks organization and there is no guarantee of a steady supply. Bioenergy remains a cost-effective option when compared to other advanced decarbonisation pathways, estimated to be less than half the cost of hydrogen, carbon capture, and synthetic fuels by 2030.

Market activity is experiencing a significant boost thanks to increased support from policies. Specialized financial support, such as tax credits, enhanced gate fees, and concessionary finance, can effectively jumpstart adoption.

Implementing consumption mandates and carbon pricing can help sustain long-term demand. By leveraging value stacking and integrating with other industries, new revenue streams can be generated.

Ultimately, modern bioenergy offers a convincing and sustainable solution to decrease global emissions and improve energy security. Using cutting-edge technologies, bioenergy has the potential to become a significant player in the global energy industry by utilising waste materials.

Just like any other specialised field, the waste-powered future comes with its fair share of challenges. These challenges include ensuring a steady supply of feedstock and the necessity of having supportive policies in place.

By making strategic investments, providing regulatory encouragement, and prioritising the integration of bioenergy with other renewable sources, we can fully unleash its potential. This not only tackles environmental concerns but also provides economic advantages, leading to a cleaner, more sustainable, and energy-independent world.

To conclude, the bioenergy market is valued at US$44 billion, with projections indicating a growth to US$125 billion by 2050 based on Wood Mackenzie's analysis of the world's current trajectory. In Wood Mackenzie's net zero scenario, bioenergy has the potential to reach a staggering US$500 billion if the world successfully achieves its net zero targets by 2050.

Food for thoughts…or Waste for thoughts!

CLIMATE TECH CHINA DOMINANCE

It is evident that China has a significant presence in the clean energy industry when considering the manufacturing of clean energy technologies and their components. The country, along with the rest of the Asia Pacific region, contributes to about 75% of the global manufacturing capacity across seven clean energy technologies.

The visualisation above provides a breakdown of global manufacturing capacity by region for various clean energy technologies.

These include onshore and offshore wind, solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, electric vehicles (EVs), fuel cell trucks, heat pumps, and electrolyzers, as highlighted in the IEA's 2023 Energy Technology Perspectives report. Manufacturing capacity is the utmost quantity of goods or products that a facility can produce during a given time frame.

Consider the following factors when evaluating a manufacturing facility:The size of the facility - The number of machines or production lines - The skill level of the workforce - The availability of raw materials

According to the IEA, there may be times when the global manufacturing capacity for clean energy technologies exceeds short-term production needs. Currently, this is particularly evident in the case of EV batteries, fuel cell trucks, and electrolyzers.

Despite this, there is a need for a substantial boost in manufacturing capacity in the upcoming decades, if demand aligns with the IEA's 2050 netzero emissions scenario.

These advancements necessitate investments in state-of-the-art equipment and technology, the cultivation of a skilled clean energy workforce, access to both raw and refined materials, and the streamlining of production processes to enhance efficiency.

What Makes China Stand Out?

China has a significant share of global manufacturing capacity for clean energy technologies and their components. For certain components, such as solar PV wafers, this percentage can reach as high as 96%.

Here's a breakdown of China's manufacturing capacity for each clean energy technology.

So, what makes China stand out in the clean energy technology sector? The IEA report suggests that a combination of factors holds the explanation.

- Low manufacturing costs

- Processing expertise energy cobalt, lithium, and rare earth

- Consistent government policy support and investment

China's ability to capture a significant share of the global market for clean technologies has been facilitated by a combination of factors. This has also resulted in a reduction in the cost of clean energy on a global scale.

With the market for low-emission solutions on the rise, China is expected to maintain its leading position in the sector, which will have significant implications for the global energy and emission landscape in the future.

The Economic Brief by the European Commission's Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship, and SMEs explores the complex economic relationship between the EU and China, with a particular emphasis on the progress made in green technology in China.

In the face of growing geopolitical complexities and economic security concerns caused by global changes, the EU is pursuing a strategy of reducing risks rather than completely separating from China. This approach focuses on finding a way to maintain cooperation on important issues while strengthening the EU's economic security position.

China's remarkable rise to a leading position in the global manufacturing landscape, including a significant presence in the climate tech sector, highlights its crucial role in the global economy.

China demonstrates remarkable progress in green technologies, with investments spanning strategic sectors like electric vehicles (EVs), solar PV modules, and batteries.

The country's manufacturing capabilities in these areas not only meet domestic demands but also establish a standard for global green technology standards. The brief highlights a bilateral relationship marked by intricate interdependencies, as the EU has increasingly relied on China for the import

of strategic products, indicating a heightened level of exposure over the last twenty years.

China is a significant supplier of strategic products to the EU, highlighting the strong economic relationship between the two economies. In addition, the document explores the EU's reliance on Chinese imports in sensitive industrial ecosystems, covering a range of sectors including renewables, pharmaceuticals, and critical raw materials.

In the context of global warming, the EU faces challenges, and opportunities due to China's dedication to green technology innovation.

Embracing a collaborative approach is crucial for achieving a net-zero future. However, the EU must exercise caution in navigating this partnership, being mindful of the potential risks that come with relying too heavily on external suppliers for critical green technologies.

The EU's connection with China is complex, encompassing trade, investment, and technology channels. It highlights the importance of having a comprehensive understanding of exposure and dependencies to successfully implement a de-risking strategy or looking the other way!

Climate Modeling with Ultrafast Imaging

The development of SCARF (Single-shot Carrier-envelope-phase Retrieval using Fluorescence) has been a massive step forward in environmental research and metrology when it comes to understanding and modelling the complex intricacies of atmospheric events.

We are entering a new age of environmental monitoring and analysis with this sophisticated technology, which surpasses the constraints of conventional ultrafast camera systems.

When it comes to monitoring the ever-changing surroundings, high-end mirrorless cameras that can capture more than 100 frames per second have long been considered the gold standard.

But these instruments aren't up to the task of recording events that happen at the speed of light. The Quebec, Canada's “Institut national de la recherche scientifique (INRS)” has been working on some innovative ideas recently.

They achieved the incredible potential of shooting up to 156.3 trillion frames per second with their work on SCARF, shattering previous barriers.

Passive femtosecond imaging and the T-CUP system (Trillion-frameper-second compressed ultrafast photography) allow for the unparalleled study of environmental phenomena, thanks to this technological advance in imaging.

Applying SCARF to the study of optical chaos in atmospheric dynamics is one of the most exciting possibilities it offers. The concept of optical chaos, which arises when particles interact with light in complicated and unpredictable ways, holds great significance for comprehending the dynamics of climate change, air pollution, and pollution distribution patterns.

Researchers are now able to see and analyse these interactions in real-time because to SCARF, which captures images at trillions of frames per second. This provides insights that were previously unavailable.

This skill expands the boundaries of climate modelling and environmental science, going beyond mere technological accomplishments. Atmospheric

aerosols, dust, and particle interactions may now be studied with unprecedented granularity thanks to SCARF.

This has the potential to improve models of light scattering, which are essential for weather prediction, pollutant behavior analysis, and global climate system health assessments.

Solutions like SCARF provide a glimmer of optimism in a world when climate change and environmental degradation are mounting crises. With their help, we can learn more about the natural world, which in turn improves our ability to make predictions and educated decisions.

With this lightning-fast imaging capabilities, we may finally have what we've been waiting for: more accurate and trustworthy climate modelling that sheds light on the interconnected environmental systems of our world and their potential future changes.

CLIMATE ENGINEERING PROMISE OR PERIL?

In the continuous fight against climate change, climate engineering, commonly referred to as geoengineering, is a daring new frontier. Innovative science and engineering are used in this sector to create systems that can either absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere or directly chill the Earth by reflecting sunlight off its surface. These techniques range from the theoretical to the practical, including afforestation and carbon capture technology, or injecting aerosols into the stratosphere or brightening clouds with sea salt.

Harvard University, which had started a ground-breaking geoengineering study to comprehend the possible effects of stratospheric aerosol injection, was one source of recent advancements in the subject. After several setbacks and backlash from the public, Harvard researchers have decided to abandon their long-running project to carry out a tiny geoengineering experiment in the stratosphere. Harvard University announced on March 18 that the project's chief investigator is "no longer pursuing the experiment."

A high-altitude balloon fitted with sensors and propellers was to be launched as part of the Harvard experiments in order to drop several kilogrammes of materials such as sulfuric acid or calcium carbonate from a great height above Earth. After that, it would reverse course and fly through the plume to measure other variables including how broadly the particles distribute and how much sunlight they reflect. The announcement said that the aircraft will now be used for stratospheric studies unrelated to solar geoengineering.

The ability of climate engineering to mitigate the effects of climate change immediately while bridging the gap to a more sustainable future is one of its most alluring features. The sobering truth is that, even with ongoing worldwide efforts to cut emissions, greenhouse gas levels currently constitute a serious threat to our climate. Considering this, climate engineering presents a collection of contingency plans that may be able to lessen the impact of temperature increases, severe weather, and the deterioration of important ecosystems.

The implementation of these technologies is not without its difficulties, though. Modifying the Earth's climate system may have unanticipated repercussions that impact social justice and geopolitical stability in addition to the environment. Because of the significant moral, ethical, and governance concerns related to climate engineering, research and development must be done carefully and cooperatively.

The investigation of climate engineering is vital despite these obstacles. It is more crucial than ever to look for novel solutions to go along with cutting greenhouse gas emissions as the effects of climate change become more severe. Our ability to make educated judgements regarding the future of our planet will improve as we get a deeper grasp of these technologies and their possible effects. With all of its potential benefits and drawbacks, climate engineering highlights the necessity for careful environmental stewardship and international collaboration in combating climate change.

Clouds are essential for Earth's climate, as they have the ability to change quickly and have a significant impact on Earth's reflectivity. Scientists from the UW Marine Cloud Brightening Programme are dedicated to studying clouds and the impact of atmospheric particle alterations, whether intentional or unintentional.

When aerosol particles are released into the atmosphere, whether from natural sources like biological emissions and sea spray, or from human activities like burning fossil fuels, wood, and vegetation, they interact with

Cloud Control: Risky Gamble, Worth IT?

clouds. This interaction can lead to the clouds becoming brighter and reflecting more sunlight back into space. As a result, the Earth's climate experiences a cooling effect. Scientists noticed that clouds in areas affected by air pollution were becoming more reflective, leading to a desire to study the impact of clouds on climate and human activities.

Recent regulations have had a notable impact on reducing shipping and other emissions. However, an unintended consequence of these measures is the reduction in cloud reflectivity, potentially contributing to the acceleration of global warming.

Recent observations in the north Atlantic Ocean suggest that the decrease in ship emissions from 2020 onwards may have played a role in the unusually warm waters. Nevertheless, our understanding of the global impact of aerosol changes remains limited, as cloud responses to aerosols can vary significantly based on cloud type and meteorological conditions.

The Marine Cloud Brightening Programme aims to provide valuable insights for future decision-making by enhancing humanity's understanding of the technical challenges, as well as the range of potential benefits and risks associated with this type of climate intervention.The researchers of the Marine Cloud Brightening Programme are utilising computer models to simulate the response of clouds to aerosols in specific regions.

They are comparing their simulations with real-world observations to ensure accuracy and using this data to assess the potential effects of different MCB implementations on future climate. They are also conducting research with smaller-scale models to study the impact of aerosol changes on cloud reflectivity and other properties.The team has developed a new approach for controlled studies of aerosol-cloud interactions, known as the Cloud-Aerosol Research Instrument (CARI), in order to validate these detailed models against observations

This device creates a sea salt plume and measures the resulting aerosol downwind for comparison with computer simulations. On April 4th researchers conducted tests of CARI at a new research facility onboard the USS Hornet Sea, Air and Space Museum in Alameda, CA. The program has created the Coastal Atmospheric Aerosol Research and Engagement (CAARE) facility, which is accessible to scientists, students, community members, government officials, global stakeholders, and the general public.

As society becomes more concerned about the impacts of climate change, the Marine Cloud Brightening Programme seeks to provide valuable information on the potential benefits and risks of interventions like MCB. This will help us better understand how these interventions can help us avoid the worst consequences of climate change. Understanding the impact of aerosols on clouds and climate is crucial for assessing climate risks and exploring the potential of marine cloud brightening to mitigate them.

GALVORN: A LIGHTWEIGHT NEWBORN

DexMat's (Houston, Texas) introduction of Galvorn marks a significant milestone in the field of material science. Galvorn, a composite derived from carbon nanotubes (CNTs), exhibits superior attributes when compared to conventional materials such as steel, aluminum, and copper. Notably, it surpasses steel in strength, aluminum in weight efficiency, and matches copper in electrical conductivity.

The synthesis of Galvorn involves the strategic manipulation of hydrocarbons, a process that yields a versatile high-performance carbon material.

This material can be engineered into various forms including fibers, yarns, films, fabrics, and composites, broadening its applicability across numerous industries such as energy, automotive, aviation, sporting goods, e-textiles, and wearables.

The scalability of Galvorn production, enhanced by a twentyfold increase and supported by newly licensed intellectual property from Rice University, highlights DexMat's commitment to meet burgeoning market demands.

This scalability is not only a testament to the technological advancement in material production but also emphasizes the environmental benefits, with Galvorn being carbon negative at scale. Such an attribute underscores the material's potential in contributing significantly to carbon emission reduction efforts.

The derivation process of Galvorn, centered on the cleavage of hydrocarbons primarily sourced from petroleum and natural gas combustion, results in the creation of carbon nanotubes.

These nanotubes, characterized by their cylindrical carbon molecule structures, are exceedingly slender, measuring approximately 1/100,000 the thickness of a human hair. This innovative production method positions Galvorn as a formidable contender to replace traditional materials, offering a greener alternative without compromising on performance.

Galvorn's versatility is further demonstrated through its potential applications across diverse fields. From composite panels and conductive wires to power lines, motor windings, electromagnetic shielding, batteries, and antennas,

Galvorn's adaptability is evident. Each application showcases the material's unique ability to revolutionize industries by providing stronger, lighter, and equally conductive solutions compared to existing materials.

In conclusion, DexMat's Galvorn represents a pivotal breakthrough in material science, offering a sustainable, high-performance alternative to traditional materials.

Its superior strength, lightweight properties, and conductivity, coupled with its carbon-negative production process, position Galvorn as a critical component in the advancement of green technology, electronics, construction, and beyond.

The widespread commercialization and diverse applicability of Galvorn signify a multi-gigaton carbon reduction opportunity, heralding a new era in material innovation and sustainability.

GLACIAL FLOUR: SOIL REVIVAL

Applying powdered silicate minerals to acidic soils is a viable method for carbon sequestration. This strategy aims to speed up the shift towards a more environmentally friendly future while also improving agricultural productivity.

This innovative method, as explained in recent scientific research, utilises the natural phenomenon of increased weathering.

It involves applying finely powdered silicate minerals to agricultural areas, which accelerates the process of mineral weathering. This, in turn, helps to capture atmospheric CO2.

This environmentally-friendly technology has considerable potential for worldwide efforts to reduce climate change.

The use of glacial rock flour, which is produced when glaciers grind rocks into small particles, offers a creative and energy-efficient alternative to the energy-intensive grinding of silicate minerals.

This easily accessible substance does not necessitate further treatment, hence decreasing the overall energy impact of the carbon sequestration procedure.

Enhanced weathering occurs when silicate minerals interact with soil acids, which helps to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere.

This chemical reaction not only sequesters carbon but also releases vital nutrients into the soil, potentially enhancing soil health and agricultural productivity.

The significance of incorporating improved weathering into agricultural operations as a solution for both climate change and soil degradation is highlighted by this dual advantage.

Furthermore, this method offers a feasible route to attaining zero emissions, a pivotal factor in constraining global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, as specified by the IPCC.

Enhanced weathering helps address the urgent challenge of the global carbon budget by absorbing atmospheric CO2 and securely depositing it in the soil in a stable form.

Nevertheless, the execution of increased weathering as a method for carbon sequestration necessitates meticulous evaluation of its ecological consequences, including the influence on nearby ecosystems and water supplies.

Current research endeavours to enhance the techniques used to measure the absorption of carbon dioxide (CO2) and to evaluate the lasting effects of this technology on soil chemistry and agricultural output.

To summarise, the utilisation of silicate minerals in acidic soils is an innovative method for carbon sequestration. The ability to address climate change and enhance soil health at the same time makes it an appealing choice for sustainable agriculture and environmental stewardship.

As the global community looks for effective ways to decrease levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, improved weathering emerges as a very promising area of study and innovation in the quest for a more sustainable and resilient future.

H2 at scale: Invincible green winner

hydrogen has the potential to become the dominant energy source that powers the global economy, rivalling oil in the 21st century. Many countries are proactively organising and establishing global alliances to position themselves for the future. With the return of nuclear energy it is in second position the most promising solution to tackle carbon emissions in industries such as steel, chemicals, and shipping.

The projected growth of green hydrogen is expected to be substantial, with its current value of approximately $1 billion estimated to reach around $30 billion by 2030. This growth can be attributed to the decreasing costs of renewable energy and the advancements made in electrolysis technology.

Hydrogen has a wide range of advantages, such as its plentiful supply, sustainable characteristics, and limited ecological footprint. Nevertheless, the expenses linked to production, transportation, and storage are rather substantial. Japan has recently announced substantial investment towards the conversion of fossil-fired plants into ammonia and hydrogen-based plants, while South Korea has set aside $40 billion to improve its hydrogen infrastructure by 2040.

The task at hand is to meet and address the increasing demand. Scaling up is the goal, and coupling with nuclear energy surplus energy to be efficiently stored in a battery and used in an electrolyzer to produce hydrogen and generate electricity.

Although cost is still a major obstacle, the ultimate goal is to expand and increase the scale. Decarbonising steel and shipping presents considerable challenges given their intricate characteristics.

Introducing green ammonia, a promising option for industrial users, is expected to gain significant traction from 2037 onwards and is projected to make up 25% of the maritime fuel mix by 2050. Several companies, including Samsung Heavy Industries, Lloyd's Register, and MAN Energy Solutions, are working together to create a ship that runs on ammonia fuel.

The steel industry poses a significant challenge when it comes to reducing carbon emissions, as it currently contributes alone for 7% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally, it is a substantial sector with a value of around $1 trillion. Germany's Uniper places a strong emphasis on producing hydrogen from environmentally friendly sources, while Salzgitter is committed to incorporating green hydrogen into its steel production.

With nations increasingly focused on transitioning to a low-carbon future, hydrogen is gaining significant traction as a leading contender to fuel the 21st-century economy.

With ambitious collaborations and investments pouring in, the trajectory for green hydrogen is poised to soar from a burgeoning industry to a $80 billion titan by 2030. The UAE's strong alliances with Japan and South Korea, along with their significant financial investments, demonstrate the growing global momentum towards sustainable energy solutions.

The potential for hydrogen to revolutionise industries historically tied to high carbon emissions is underscored by innovations in storage and electrolysis technology, as well as scalable production efforts.

Green ammonia is emerging as a crucial maritime fuel, while green hydrogen holds the potential to revolutionise steel production. It's remarkable to see how companies such as Samsung Heavy Industries and Salzgitter are at the forefront of making clean power an essential part of global industry.

With declining costs, scaling up green hydrogen is not just a goal, but an inevitable milestone on the horizon

STEEL GOES H2 GREEN

H2 Green Steel is a Swedish company that is building a hydrogen-powered steel plant in northern Sweden.

The company has raised €6.5 billion in debt and equity financing, including €4.2 billion in debt financing from a group of 20 lenders, €300 million in fresh equity from investors including Microsoft Climate Innovation Fund, Mubea and Siemens Financial Services, and a €250 million grant from the European Union's Innovation Fund.

The company was founded in 2020 by Swedish financier Harald Mix and business executive Carl-Erik Lagercrantz through their fund Vargas Holding, and is currently building a plant in Boden, northern Sweden, which will use green hydrogen from 2025 onwards to replace coking coal, which is used in furnaces to produce steel, with renewable energy and hydrogen.

The company's goal is to reduce carbon emissions in the steel industry, which accounts for around 8% of global greenhouse gas emissions. H2 Green Steel has also been recognized by Project Finance International (PFI) as the "Sustainability deal of the year" for its dedication to making a positive impact in the steel industry and other hard-to-abate industries, as well as in society and on the planet.

The company has secured around €6.5 billion in total financing, including €3.5 billion in senior debt and up to €600 million in junior debt, alongside close to €300 million in equity.

The plant will use green hydrogen produced on-site using one of the largest electrolysers in Europe, which will be powered by renewable energy.

The company expects to begin operations at the plant by the end of 2025, and the plant is expected to produce steel with up to 95% less carbon emissions compared with steel produced using traditional blast furnace technology.

The capacity of H2 Green Steel's Boden steel plant is expected to be 2.5 million tonnes per annum (TPA) of steel in 2028.

The company is working with advisers at Morgan Stanley to raise more than 5 billion euros, including 3.5 billion in debt, for the project. The plant is expected to reduce 95% of carbon dioxide emissions compared with normal steelmaking.

The site in preparation

The project at maturity

MethaneSAT: Emissions Unveiled

The Environmental Defense Fund, through an investment of $88 million, has overseen the launch of MethaneSAT, a 350 kg satellite. This instrument, with a design input from Harvard University, aims to accurately monitor anthropogenic methane emissions.

Launched aboard a SpaceX vehicle, MethaneSAT is equipped with a spectrometer to record and disseminate comprehensive data on methane sources, a potent greenhouse gas with considerable impact on global warming.

Methane Emission Dynamics: Methane (CH4) is a greenhouse gas with a very high warming consequences, resulting from both industrial activities and natural processes.

Key sources include oil and gas infrastructure, permafrost thaw, enteric fermentation in ruminants, and wetland microbial actions. Methane's atmospheric concentrations have notably increased, yet quantification of its global emission has remained incomplete.

Operational Objectives of MethaneSAT: Scheduled for operation commencement in the subsequent year, MethaneSAT's mission is to deliver detailed and publicly accessible methane emission data. Its spectrometer is designed to detect methane with high precision, promising an advance in the monitoring capabilities over industrial infrastructures responsible for significant methane release.

Significance and Anticipated Outcomes: MethaneSAT represents a strategic initiative in climate monitoring for several reasons. Firstly, methane contributes approximately one-third to post-industrial revolution warming, emphasizing its climatological significance.

Secondly, the reduction of methane emissions from fossil fuel infrastructure is feasible and economically viable, as stated by the International Energy Agency (IEA). Thirdly, methane's atmospheric lifetime is shorter than that of carbon dioxide (CO2), which means mitigative actions can have more immediate climate benefits.

Expected Findings and Challenges: Preliminary analysis predicts that MethaneSAT may reveal higher-than-anticipated methane emissions, as recent studies indicate a tripling of emissions from the U.S. fossil fuel sector compared to previous Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) estimates. This aligns with a broader trend of underreported methane emissions, as noted by the IEA and other research endeavors.

Policy Implications and Global Response: The advent of MethaneSAT occurs amidst a backdrop of international commitments to reduce methane emissions, exemplified by pledges from over 155 nations.

These commitments align with the broader goals established in significant climate accords such as the Paris Agreement. However, there remains a gap between knowledge of emissions and actionable climate policy.

Natural Sources of Methane: Beyond anthropogenic emissions, natural sources, particularly wetlands, are a growing concern. Rising temperatures promote microbial activity in wetlands, thereby increasing methane emissions, a trend that may have been underestimated in prior models.

MethaneSAT is poised to provide a new lens through which human contributions to climate change are viewed, characterized by its daily revolutions around the Earth.

It stands as an observational platform, surveilling the extent to which anthropogenic activities continue to influence the planet's climate systems. This satellite's data will contribute to our understanding of the current state of methane emissions, offering a scientific basis for potential climate.

Wind Wings: Sail, Save, Soar!

Wind Wings is a cutting-edge wind-assisted propulsion and route optimisation system created by BAR Technologies, a UK-based company, in collaboration with multiple partners in the shipping industry.

Utilising state-of-the-art technology, this innovative solution integrates dynamic multi-element wings with advanced route optimisation, resulting in a remarkable increase in fuel efficiency of up to 30% by harnessing the power of the wind.

The system is designed to be emission-free, providing a sustainable solution to decrease carbon dioxide emissions in the maritime sector. Here's how Wind Wings operates:

Design and Installation: Wind Wings are comprised of a series of automated sails constructed from a combination of steel and composite materials.

These sails reach an impressive height of 37.5 meters and span a width of 20 meters. Vertical sails are commonly installed on ships to harness the power of the wind and propel the vessel forward.

Fuel Savings: With the use of wind power, Wind Wings has the potential to save up to 1.5 tons of fuel per sail per day, leading to a daily decrease of around 4.9 tons of carbon dioxide emissions. These results lead to substantial fuel savings and reductions in emissions along common international sea routes.

Operation: The sails are operated through a touch panel on the ship's bridge, while a straightforward traffic light system assists the crew in determining when to raise or lower the sails. Once activated, the operation becomes completely automated, with sensors onboard constantly monitoring wind conditions and adjusting the sails for maximum efficiency.

Prioritizing Efficiency and Sustainability: Wind Wings not only help decrease fuel consumption, but also play a role in reducing carbon emissions, which supports the shipping industry's commitment to adopting more sustainable practices. The system provides an affordable solution to meet decarbonisation objectives in the short, medium, and long term.

Wind Wings offer a practical and efficient solution to enhance the performance and sustainability of vessels in the maritime industry. They represent a significant advancement in wind-assisted propulsion technology.

Solar Energy Box: Seamless 24/7 Green Power

The Solar Energy Box is a cutting-edge energy storage device that, in the absence of sunlight, releases stored energy back into the form of heat and electrical energy using hydrogen technology. It is powered by a sustainable source, such as a photovoltaic solar module.

By providing the option to store energy when it is available and use it when needed, this system fills the gap between the needs of residential and commercial buildings and the existing solar energy system, resulting in endless 24/7 solar energy. Without requiring a connection to the natural gas or electrical grid, Solar Energy Box is an all-in-one solution for heating and electricity needs.

With a 92% overall efficiency in energy transmission from one season to the next, it uses compressed hydrogen as a kind of energy storage. Hydrogen gas, which has been stored as energy, can also be utilised to power hydrogen-powered vehicles without emitting any CO2.

The Solar Energy Box's operating manual mentions that solar panels, which can function with or without a grid connection, provide the electrical energy. When the sun isn't shining, Solar Energy BoxTM uses stored hydrogen to generate electricity and heat with an electrical efficiency of 56%.

It recover a significant portion of the losses as heat and provides hot water for sanitation and heating (ideally floor heating). If more heat is created than is required, it will be stored in a hot water tank; if less heat is produced than is needed, a catalytic burner will increase the amount of heat produced.

The Box produces no greenhouse gases during manufacture, delivery, or consumption, making it three times carbon-free. A hydrogen storage tank, control unit, cloud interface, and reversible fuel cell are among most crucial parts. A 5G/GPRS module in the Solar Energy Box allows for customised control and management, even from distance.

Hydrogen presents a storage issue due to its strong mass energy density and low volume density. The latter is compressed and kept in industrialgrade gas cylinders to store enough gaseous hydrogen. The Solar Energy Box’s design has enough ventilation and a leak detector.

When it comes to storage solutions, Solar Energy Box addresses most issues that end users in the residential and industrial sectors typically encounter. It offers an environmentally friendly option, makes photovoltaic solar panels more valuable, and permits energy storage. This modular system can be implemented at the district level and installed within a network. Unlike other devices that concentrate only on heating or electricity, it guarantees complete autonomy to main industrial actors.

The Solar Energy Box marks is offering a blend of efficiency, versatility, and environmental stewardship. By harnessing solar power and innovative hydrogen technology, it delivers a comprehensive solution for heating, electricity, and vehicle fueling free from CO2 emissions.

Beyond failure: Climate tech last chance

US BASED startup's fortunes have been significantly enhanced by the 2022 US Inflation Reduction Act, which offers compelling incentives for the manufacturing of solar panels within the United States. Currently, 44 new plants in the United States have been scheduled for construction this summer.

The exponential growth in climate tech/ investments and manufacturing has resulted in a substantial rise in both public and private expenditures on technology and infrastructure aimed at mitigating climate change.

The United States witnessed a substantial increase in green investments, amounting to $213 billion, over the course of 12 months starting from July 2022.

Most of these funds were directed towards the development of renewable energy sources, bolstering battery and electric vehicle manufacturing, and establishing infrastructure for green hydrogen. This funding is generating prospective prospects for the upcoming wave of technology to cater to growing markets.

Startups are showcasing innovative technology for storing energy and developing carbon-free methods for producing chemicals, steel, and cement. Investors are allocating significant amounts of capital to expand emerging technologies including geothermal power, fusion reactors, and direct air capture of carbon dioxide, with potential financial risks up to billions of dollars.

Advancements in "deep" or "hard" technology, which are goods and processes that rely on scientific and engineering breakthroughs, may play a crucial role in tackling climate change.

Nevertheless, there are significant deficiencies in the cleantech portfolio, as indicated by the International Energy Agency's estimation that approximately 35% of the required emissions reductions to achieve the climate targets by 2050 would rely on technologies that are now unavailable.

Startups that receive financial backing from venture capitalists play a vital role in converting promising laboratory findings into viable and enduring enterprises. These startups are crucial in initiating the process of reducing carbon emissions and embracing alternative energy sources.

Nevertheless, these emerging companies have obstacles in constructing pilot facilities on a significant scale to validate their methodologies outside of the laboratory and contend with established technology. This phenomenon is commonly referred to as the "valley of death," a challenging phase that only a small number of firms in the climate tech sector managed to successfully cross.

The performance of venture-backed firms in the field of climate technology has been extremely poor. Venture capitalists invested over $25 billion in cleantech startups between 2006 and 2011, resulting in a loss of over 50% of their initial investment.

The allocation of venture capital for cleantech had a decline from more than 8% in 2008 to approximately 3% during the period from 2016 to 2020. Nevertheless, with the rise in government spending and the establishment of long-term emission-reduction targets by corporations, the markets for climate technology are indeed tangible and expanding.

Investments in climate technology startups have experienced a gradual increase in the most recent Q1 2024. Certain companies continue to secure substantial amounts of funding. Nevertheless, certain firms are experiencing a depletion of easily accessible funds, which serves as a reminder of the need to assess their long-term viability.

The enduring obstacle that venture-backed entrepreneurs encountered 10 years ago in bringing transformational ideas to market now persists: a distinct strategy to focus on clearly defined markets remains crucial for survival.

The route to commercialise these technologies is still uncertain, and it is still to be determined if we will witness a scenario like the initial climate tech bubble within the next five years.

The emerging market for clean technologies is crucial for numerous businesses, since recent corporate pledges to reduce carbon emissions and government spending initiatives generate substantial demand in previously non-existent areas.

Climate technology startups have encountered many obstacles in the process of bringing climate solutions to the commercial market. These barriers include significant expenses, potential risks, and rivalry in well-established businesses.

The previous surge in climate tech investments concluded in a calamity, and investors assert that they have acquired valuable insights from that experience.

Despite that, the fortunes of current climate-tech investments may be disrupted by changing political circumstances. The IRA (USA inflation reduction act) was approved without any support from Republicans in both the House and the Senate, and a comparable political change could have detrimental consequences for much-needed advancements.

The demise of firms that had previously shown great potential in developing technologies such as highly efficient solar cells, batteries composed of more readily available materials, and cleaner fuels, devastated a generation of entrepreneurs and investors.

The current firms that receive venture capital funding are only a small part of the broader initiative to establish an environmentally friendly economy. It is crucial for investors and founders to understand their role to gain a deeper understanding of the challenges and restrictions they encounter.

For numerous venture capitalists, climate tech remains a mindset with business model that is yet to demonstrate efficacy.

Nevertheless, certain individuals, particularly experienced professionals from the previous period of clean technology, have gained valuable insights from past shortcomings and now possess a comprehensive understanding of the significant investments of time and capital required to transform innovative ideas into profitable enterprises.

Part 4

reality check & CONCLUSION

PROFIT OR PLANET? CEO’ Sweepstake’s

Many chief executives are now prioritising the fight against climate change to such an extent that a significant portion of them are willing to accept lower returns on investments. This is one of the main findings from PwC's latest Global CEO Survey of business executives' top priorities each year.

In the coming years, a significant number of CEOs anticipate that climate change will impact the way their organisation generates, delivers, and maximizes value. That’s a significant increase compared to the previous five installments of the annual survey, where less than a quarter of respondents expressed the same sentiment. It is worth noting that a significant number of CEOs, particularly those in the chemical industry, have expressed that their companies have established lower hurdle rates.

CEOs in the Asia-Pacific region are more inclined to accept lower returns, even though they share the same level of concern about climate change as their counterparts in other regions.

When it comes to investments that support the environment, how far are CEOs willing to go? Most individuals who reported accepting lower returns from these endeavors in the past year experienced a discount ranging from 1% to 6% compared to other investments. However, nearly 20% reported taking a markdown higher than 6%.

Other CEOs seem are disconnected from the issue of climate change which is not viewed as a significant threat to their business . Only 12% of respondents considered it a significant concern for 2024, in contrast to the 24% who highlighted inflation and macroeconomic volatility as the top risks according to the survey.

Meanwhile, C-Suite executives acknowledge that their efforts to address climate change have yielded varying results. Approximately two-thirds of respondents indicated that they are currently engaged in endeavors to enhance energy efficiency, while an additional 10% stated that these initiatives have already been finalised.

About half of the participants viewed climate-friendly products and services as still being developed. In both cases, CEOs in Western Europe tend to be more advanced. When it comes to other climate action, numerous CEOs lack direction. According to the report, a significant number of respondents have not taken climate risk into account when it comes to financial planning, with almost one-third having no intention of doing so.

CEOs considered the climate risk associated with severe weather events, but according to PwC, they have overlooked the long-term impact of climate change. Another explanation: Focused solely on internal operations, many fail to recognize yet the interconnectedness of their supply chains. The CEOs surveyed showed little interest in investing in the upskilling or reskilling of their workforce for a net-zero economy, or in supporting nature-based climate solutions.

Renewables Shine, Yet Insufficient

Renewable energy is achieving remarkable milestones throughout the United States, with wind and solar power making up an impressive 76% of electricity production in Texas' primary power grid. New England also achieved a remarkable milestone, with 45% of its power generated from wind, solar, and hydropower sources.

Grid operators have observed unprecedented levels of solar generation in the Midwest, wind generation in New York, and renewable generation in the mid-Atlantic. These milestones capture a moment in time when renewable generation experiences a significant increase on one of the country's regional electric grids, all of which still heavily rely on fossil fuels.

Last year, wind power generated nearly double the amount of electricity compared to coal on the grid managed by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which caters to approximately 90 percent of the state's power demand.

On sunny days, rooftop solar consistently surpasses other forms of generation in New England. Even grids like PJM Interconnection, which spans states from New Jersey to Illinois, have begun to witness a change. PJM has recently experienced a significant increase in solar generation, with the top 10 days all occurring in the past two months. However, renewables still make up only a small portion of the overall power mix on the grid.

The US records are partially attributed to the shifting season, as during the mild spring season, the need for heating or cooling decreases, leading to a reduction in electricity usage.

California has seen an unprecedented streak where, each day, the combined output from wind, geothermal, hydroelectric, and solar power has surpassed the main electricity grid's demand for periods ranging from 15 minutes to over nine hours. Previously, achieving 100% renewable energy on the grid happened only sporadically typically on weekends and never on consecutive days or weekdays. Now, this milestone is nearly a daily achievement during the spring season.

The records also show significant growth in renewable energy over the past few years, with developers successfully installing 60 gigawatts of new solar capacity across the nation between 2019 and 2023, and wind capacity increasing by 57% over that period.

United States should aim to install a significant amount of new wind and solar capacity each year until 2035.

United States now generates nearly 12 times as much solar power and 2.6 times as much wind power as it did in 2013[1]. Taken together, the United States got nearly 17% of its electricity from solar, wind and geothermal power in 2022, up from just over 5% in 2013.

In the European Union, the revised Renewable Energy Directive, adopted in 2023, raises the EU's binding renewable energy target for 2030 to a minimum of 42.5%. The EU overachieved its target in 2020 with a 22% share of gross final energy consumption from renewable sources, up from 20% in 2019

SCALING NUCLEAR BRIGHT FUTURE

The latest report from McKinsey & Company presents an increasingly positive outlook on nuclear power, highlighting its crucial role in the global shift towards clean energy.

This in-depth analysis emphasises the significant potential of nuclear power to address the increasing global need for electricity, which is primarily driven by a transition from fossil fuels to electrification in various sectors such as transportation and industrial processes.

The report confirms that nuclear energy, a widely recognised source of zerocarbon power, currently accounts for approximately 10% of global electricity generation. Its capacity to deliver consistent and immediate power makes it a great addition to intermittent renewable sources such as wind and solar.

Recent advancements have sparked renewed enthusiasm for nuclear power, particularly due to its ability to bolster energy security, address the limitations of renewable resources, and facilitate the significant growth needed to achieve net-zero emissions targets.

According to McKinsey's scenario, there will be a need for an additional 400 to 800 GW of nuclear capacity by 2050 to meet the growing power demands. This would require a substantial increase in the worldwide electricity mix dedicated to nuclear power, which would call for an unparalleled expansion in production. The industry, however, needs to address potential challenges such as overcoming the historical trend of budget and timeline overruns.

Emerging reactor technologies, such as Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and Generation IV reactors, are being recognised as potential game-changers in the industry. These innovative advancements have the potential to significantly decrease construction costs and timelines, all while prioritising safety and efficiency. These advancements may enable greater use of nuclear power, especially in environments where traditional reactors are not feasible on a large scale.

The report also highlights eight strategic actions that are crucial for effectively expanding nuclear power. These tasks involve exploring new sources of funding, expanding the workforce with skilled individuals, streamlining international licencing procedures, and promoting technological advancements through collaborations between the public and private sectors.

Efforts like these are essential to speed up the implementation of nuclear technology and meet the increasing energy demands of the future.

In their analysis, McKinsey highlights the significant challenges that nuclear power faces. However, they also emphasise the undeniable potential of nuclear power to contribute to a sustainable and secure energy future.

Through the resolution of existing challenges and the utilisation of cuttingedge technologies, nuclear power has the potential to significantly contribute to the worldwide shift towards cleaner energy sources.

This aligns with the broader objective of combating climate change and achieving net-zero emissions. The future of nuclear energy is full of potential and possibilities that could reshape its position in the worldwide energy sector.

CLT TO BRIDGE THE GAP

Examining the connection between climate change and Construal Level Theory (CLT) offers a useful perspective for comprehending public participation and the international response to environmental emergencies.

According to CLT, the psychological distance between events affects how we see and understand them. While events that are viewed as close are examined in detail, those that are perceived as distant in terms of time, distance, or social relations are thought about in more abstract terms. This distinction is important because climate change is a complex problem that many people find abstract and remote despite its growing immediacy.

Climate change has long been portrayed as an impending menace with devastating effects that will only manifest themselves in a generation or two from now

Because of this temporal separation, the problem is more abstractly understood, which makes it difficult to organise group action. People find it difficult to make the connection between their

everyday actions and the far-off, frequently statistical effects of global warming, including estimates of ice caps melting or rising global temperatures by 2050.

The problem is too large and has too many seemingly far-off effects for practical, individual action.

There has been a change in recent years. The consequences of climate change are becoming more obvious and felt right away; strong wildfires, storms, and heatwaves are becoming yearly norms rather than outliers.

The psychological distance closes when these occurrences grow more regular and personal, making the problem more tangible and pressing in the public consciousness.

At this point, CLT provides insightful advice on how to motivate behavioral change. It is possible to make climate action more psychologically proximate and actionable by framing it in terms of immediate, visible benefits such as improved air quality, health benefits, and economic savings instead of distant, abstract goals.

Although CLT can provide context for differing reactions to climate change, it is not a cure-all. The challenge of altering one's own ideas as well as the political and societal elements that significantly affect how people perceive climate change are not adequately considered by the theory.

Furthermore, the idea implies that creating a psychological connection between climate change and people may not always result in positive action; for others, it may instead cause denial or apathy, particularly if the perceived answers contradict firmly held beliefs or lifestyles.

To effectively manage these complexity, policies and communications about climate change must be created that are immediately relevant and resonate on a personal level.

This entails highlighting regional effects and initiatives, illustrating the larger problem with the help of anecdotes and firsthand accounts, and outlining concrete, doable measures that people and groups may do. By emphasizing the immediate relevance and advantages of climate efforts, policymakers and activists may reduce psychological distance and encourage action by leveraging CLT.

A Non-Politically Correct Opinion

C.O.P. = Circus of Oil Patrons

The 1992 Earth Summit in Rio marked the inaugural moment for the COP (UN Conference of the Parties) on climate change. Then, with a mix of optimism and naivety, 197 countries signed the Kyoto Protocol at COP 3, laying down what many hoped would be the bedrock for resolving crucial environmental issues.

This sparked a series of 18 years bloated COP meetings high on attendance, low on impact culminating somewhat miraculously in the 2015 Paris COP 21. Was it French intellectual arrogance (a trait they cherish!) or their often-underrated diplomatic finesse that managed to forge an unprecedented agreement, setting the ambitious 1.5°C threshold? Either way, every nation signed on, even those who usually play the role of international pariahs.

Glasgow’s COP 26 was a sequel of sorts, with the Brits eager to prove their own prowess on the global stage. However, the script flipped at the next COP 27 in Egypt, which, situated too close to oil-rich states, saw an unprecedented influx of Big Oil lobbyists.

Their enthusiasm peaked at COP 28 in Dubai, where they managed to appoint a major oil executive as chairman—a move so audacious that many nations downgraded their representation in response, sending junior delegates to face an emboldened trinity of lobbyists, boldfaced greenwashing ads, and extremely large exhibition booths showcasing their dubious greens.

And what’s next? The COP caravan moves to Azerbaijan (29) and Brazil (30), both oil juggernauts, ensuring the oil barons will continue to feel right at home.

Environmentalists, eco-warriors, and climate activists are left to shout into the void, as the original intergovernmental purpose of COP is smothered by the oily embrace of its new patrons.

We should discard the outdated COP acronym—UN Conference of the Parties—and embrace a more fitting interpretation: CIRCUS OF OIL PATRONS.

An insult? Hardly it’s simply a tongue-in-cheek nod to the farcical reality. A problem? Not to those in power, the ones who could redirect this ship. A solution? Perhaps. For instance, if Big Oil invested heavily in hydrogen, it could genuinely jump-start this vital industry as much as they did on Solar.

In conclusion, the takeover of climate talks by Big Oil is as obscene as it is disheartening.

But let’s allow the corporate "peacocks," strutting about with their trillions in revenue, to foot the bill for the grand greenwashing gala. Governments can't afford to play at this level, anyway.

So, let’s stop crying foul. Instead, observe, control, and judge.

OUT TO SPACE OR DOWN TO EARTH

The long-standing debate over whether to redirect billions of dollars towards the more pressing and rapidly worsening climate change crisis on Earth or to continue investing in the unexplored expanses of space is intensifying as the US administration stands on the brink of future national budget allocations.

This dilemma transcends a mere budgetary issue; it raises significant questions about our responsibilities to Earth and our ambitions for space travel.

Some of humanity's most astounding accomplishments have been driven by our insatiable curiosity about space. The planned Habitable Worlds Observatory and NASA's Artemis program both aim to expand human understanding and capabilities.

These initiatives seek not only to explore the cosmos but also to define humanity's place within it. However, these lofty goals are set against the urgent backdrop of climate change.

The increasing frequency of extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and catastrophic natural disasters, all consequences of global warming, pose an escalating threat to our way of life.

In this era of limited resources and infinite demands, the costeffectiveness of space missions, especially those involving human astronauts, must be scrutinized. Human spaceflight is exceedingly costly.

The infrastructure, safety measures, and life-support systems required to sustain human life in space come with a high price tag, funds that could alternatively support significant conservation efforts on Earth.

A shift towards robotic missions could maintain the scientific integrity of space exploration while significantly reducing costs. Robotic explorers, such as those used on Mars, can perform complex tasks without the risks and expenses associated with human crews.

A striking example of financial mismanagement is NASA’s investment of over $420 million in developing next-generation spacesuit technology between 2008 and 2021.

By the time the two Exploration Extravehicular Mobility Unit (xEMU) suits “shall” be ready in April 2025, NASA will likely have spent over $1 billion on spacesuits, with each suit costing approximately $500 million.

Seriously! Deploying the latest humanoid robots in place of humans, who face extreme dangers to their health in space, would cost just 10% of this exorbitant bill. And all this effort to plant a flag against the usual suspect (no need to ask which one!).

To counterbalance these financial "scandals," a significant and positive shift has occurred with the involvement of the commercial sector in space projects. This development has been proudly termed "Space Tech," where private funding, rather than public money, fuels innovation and progress.

SpaceX have revolutionized the field, demonstrating that private investment can lead to faster developments and more efficient management than traditional, publicly funded space programs.

This shift not only diversifies the technological advancements in the sector but also alleviates some of the financial burdens from taxpayers.

By harnessing the dynamism and resourcefulness of the private sector, space exploration is becoming more sustainable and ambitious, opening new possibilities for scientific discovery and technological breakthroughs that were once thought to be decades away.

Consequently, a balanced approach is essential. We can continue our quest for cosmic knowledge without sacrificing Earth's ecology by utilizing sophisticated robotics and encouraging private sector involvement. With this strategy, we can ensure that our pursuits in space do not compromise our ability to protect Earth.

In conclusion, the decision between investing in space or Earth is not merely about choosing one over the other; it involves carefully balancing our dreams with our practical realities.

Ultimately, ensuring the survival of our own world must take precedence before we reach out to explore other galaxies.

CONCLUSIVE REFLECTIONS: A PATH FORWARD

In the context of our planet's ongoing warming, we stand on the precipice of triggering irrevocable shifts within Earth's climatic system, epitomized by the potential disintegration of polar ice masses and consequential sea-level surges, alongside the deterioration of vital oceanic circulations.

These 'tipping points' delineate critical junctures beyond which the planet may undergo rapid and irreversible transformations, posing unprecedented challenges to human civilization—essentially, thresholds we must endeavor to avoid crossing.

As we move into 2024, however, there emerges a beacon of hope amidst the looming threats. The culmination of the COP28 United Nations climate discussions in December 2023 marked a pivotal moment, with nearly 200 nations concurring on the imperative to hasten the phasing out of fossil fuels within this decisive decade the primary culprits of the climate predicament. The arsenal required to supplant fossil fuels throughout our economic spectrum spanning electricity production, transportation, heating, culinary uses, and industrial operations is already at our disposal.

A burgeoning demand for clean energy solutions, including wind and solar power, battery storage, and electric vehicles, is beginning to outpace and replace conventional polluting technologies like coalpowered electricity and internal combustion engines on a worldwide scale.

In 2023, the world witnessed a remarkable augmentation in renewable energy capacity by 510 billion watts, surpassing the previous year's figures by 50% and equating to the combined power capacities of Germany, France, and Spain. This shall escalate even further in the upcoming half-decade.

Parallelly, the surge in electric vehicle adoption, with a 31% increase in 2023 and accounting for approximately 18% of all new global vehicle sales, signifies a shift towards clean transportation modalities.

An increasing number of leading economies have already surpassed their emissions zeniths, including the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Japan. Meanwhile, China, the current leading emitter, is on the brink of a transformative decline in emissions, propelled by unprecedented investments in clean energy and a monumental surge in renewable resource utilization, particularly solar energy.

While the prospect of a global emissions peak is a glimmer of optimism, it is insufficient in isolation. Greenhouse gases will continue to accumulate in the atmosphere, exacerbating global warming until we drastically reduce emissions to near-zero levels.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change underscored the necessity of halving global emissions by 2030 at a 1.5°C target. Although achieving this goal is no longer feasible, as we will approach most probably a 3°C increase, we must continue to resist any further acceleration.

In conclusion, the path forward requires not merely a reduction in the acceleration of warming but a decisive and urgent application of the brakes. To mitigate the severest impacts of the climate crisis, a halving of global emissions by the end of this decade is imperative.

The challenge is immense but surmountable, signifying not an endgame but a crucial phase of action.

"It’s not game over; it’s game on.".

nature.com

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