Work Programme Analysis of benefit claims for first cohort of Work Programme participants
Overview of the analysis Relatively simple analysis of the first people in the Work Programme: • identified the benefit records of June 2011 attachments and tracked their benefit status over their first 36 weeks of the programme. • Able to say where they had a break in claim, how long for, and if they returned to benefit. • Analysis of DWP data only, so nothing from providers on actual jobs or payments. • Important context: not an evaluation, performance assessment or comparison with other programmes. Too soon / too little data.
Key Findings Nine months into a two year programme, we can see that‌ Of the 28,600 people who attached in June 2011 13,800 people, nearly 1 in 2, have signed off at some stage
7,000, 24% have already had a continuous 13 week break in claim A significant proportion (14%) have already had a 26 week break in claim 1 in 4 (25%) were not on any benefit at the end of the data period Of the earliest leavers, 71% stayed off benefit for 13% weeks, and 60% for 26 weeks.
Analysis
Early progress into the cohort, 36 weeks in %
Where at 2 years, and beyond?
25% not on any benefit, at 36 weeks
Time 36 Week tracking period
104 week programme duration
Time off benefit 1:
counting sustained spells in 36 week window
24% of cohort have at least 13 weeks continuous spell recorded within the period
14% of cohort have at least a 26 week continuous spell within the period
36 week tracking period
We can only count spells which fall entirely in the tracking period – pink spells don’t count
Time off benefit 2:
The 10 week cohort
Key Points: Closest to the ERSA cohort (attached in June, left by September) Use of 10 week cohort allows us to track decay rate over full 26 weeks Shows that for those that leave, chances of returning to benefit are low Encouragingly low attrition between 13 and 26 weeks.
3,900 people leave by the 10 week point
71% still off benefit at the 13 week point
13 Weeks 10 weeks
26 weeks
60% off for at least 26 weeks
Conclusions Not yet conclusive proof of performance, as: • •
Early days providers paid on different measure
But: • •
Already very clear evidence of time off benefit Encouraging results on continuous spells of 13 and 26 weeks.
Overall, a promising start… Next steps • •
First data on outcomes in the autumn Evaluation from 2013 onwards