DWP Work Programme analysis 2012

Work Programme Analysis of benefit claims for first cohort of Work Programme participants

Overview of the analysis Relatively simple analysis of the first people in the Work Programme: • identified the benefit records of June 2011 attachments and tracked their benefit status over their first 36 weeks of the programme.

• Able to say where they had a break in claim, how long for, and if they returned to benefit.

• Analysis of DWP data only, so nothing from providers on actual jobs or payments.

• Important context: not an evaluation, performance assessment or comparison with other programmes. Too soon / too little data.

Key Findings Nine months into a two year programme, we can see that‌ Of the 28,600 people who attached in June 2011 13,800 people, nearly 1 in 2, have signed off at some stage

7,000, 24% have already had a continuous 13 week break in claim A significant proportion (14%) have already had a 26 week break in claim 1 in 4 (25%) were not on any benefit at the end of the data period Of the earliest leavers, 71% stayed off benefit for 13% weeks, and 60% for 26 weeks.

Analysis

Early progress into the cohort, 36 weeks in %

Where at 2 years, and beyond?

25% not on any benefit, at 36 weeks

Time 36 Week tracking period

104 week programme duration

Time off benefit 1:

counting sustained spells in 36 week window

24% of cohort have at least 13 weeks continuous spell recorded within the period

14% of cohort have at least a 26 week continuous spell within the period

36 week tracking period

We can only count spells which fall entirely in the tracking period – pink spells don’t count

Time off benefit 2:

The 10 week cohort

Key Points:  Closest to the ERSA cohort (attached in June, left by September)  Use of 10 week cohort allows us to track decay rate over full 26 weeks  Shows that for those that leave, chances of returning to benefit are low  Encouragingly low attrition between 13 and 26 weeks.

3,900 people leave by the 10 week point

71% still off benefit at the 13 week point

13 Weeks 10 weeks

26 weeks

60% off for at least 26 weeks

Conclusions Not yet conclusive proof of performance, as: • •

Early days providers paid on different measure

But: • •

Already very clear evidence of time off benefit Encouraging results on continuous spells of 13 and 26 weeks.

Overall, a promising start…

Next steps • •

First data on outcomes in the autumn Evaluation from 2013 onwards