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RACINGAHEAD NOVEMBER 2019 ISSUE 181 £3.49

inside: fergie’s big race preview

Baron Alco wins the BetVictor Gold Cup last year. Can he double up?

++++

jacobs’ five to follow ++++

trends for betvictor gold cup ++++

irish racing scene...talking two-year-olds

9 771743 551050

1743-551X

the national hunt season is upon us with the first big Cheltenham meeting arriving this month

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jumping into life

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paddock picks

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By ADAM their move to the Midlands ELLIS in 2015, and Haskell, JAMES HASKELL says left Wasps last summerwho for he can understand why Northampton, concedes it former Wasps team- is pretty basic there.

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CONTENTS

RACINGAHEAD NOVEMBER 2019 ISSUE 181 £3.49

inside: fergie’s big race preview

Baron Alco wins the BetVictor Gold Cup last year. Can he double up?

++++

jacobs’ five to follow ++++

trends for betvictor gold cup ++++

1743-551X ISSN

the national hunt season is upon us with the first big Cheltenham meeting arriving this month

9 771743 551050

jumping into life

11

paddock picks

irish racing scene...talking two-year-olds

28

welcome With a big Cheltenham meeting in the offing, we know we are deep into the National Hunt season with all the joy that brings.

Paul Ferguson looks ahead to the great races in store for us this month, starting at Down Royal and moving through to Wetherby’s Charlie Hall Classic which should see the return of La Bague Au Roi. Then it’s Cheltenham’s November Meeting and the BetVictor Gold Cup and Greatwood Hurdle.

Andy Newton has run his expert eye over the key trends for the BetVictor.

And, at this stage of the season, don’t miss Paul Jacobs’ ante-post value bets with five mighty tips.

FOR ALL ENQUIRIES/ORDERS RACING AHEAD Tuition House, St George’s Road Wimbledon, SW19 4EU Tel: 0845 638 0704 Racing Ahead is published by The Racing Paper Ltd T/A Racing Ahead www.racingahead.net Subs enquiries: 0845 638 0704 Back issues: £4 each Publisher & Editor In Chief: David Emery Photos: Julie Drewett Advertising enquiries: Graham Wright 0845 638 0704 / graham@racingahead.net EDITORIAL CONTRIBUTORS Paul Ferguson, Paul Jacobs, Andrew Ayres, Graham Buddry, Jeremy Grayson, Ian Heitman, Andy Newton, Simon Nott Distribution: Intermedia Printer: Mortons, Horncastle Opinions in Racing Ahead are those of the contributors and not necessarily the views of The Racing Paper Ltd. ISSN: 1743-551X

4 paul ferguson His expert preview of the month’s big races

8 paul jacoBs Ante-post five to follow this season

10 paddock picks

Andrew Ayres finds another selection of horses to follow

36

14 ANDY NEWTON Important trends for the BetVictor Gold Cup

16 two-year-olds

39 newmarket

22 Irish racing

40 tales from ring

26 EDDIE WOOD

43 optimum

24 paddock picks

44 cleve racing

28 photo special

46 stable

30 chepstow

48 racing methods

32 out in sticks

50 speed figures

36 yesterday’s hero

54 form guide

Ian Heitman analyses the latest juvenile action Karl Hedley with news from the Emerald Isle The going is such a vital element in gambling Andrew Ayres finds another selection of horses to follow Shetland pony derby takes over at Plumpton Report from the opening day of the Jumps season Jeremy Gratson on the look-out for winners at the smaller tracks Graham Buddry looks back on Gold Cup great Denman

Dave Youngman with the latest news from HQ Simon Nott spends time at Exeter and Wincanton The Optimum Racing Syndicate enjoys a day out at Hereford Deciding whether you need to take a tipster’s service Leading jockeys and trainers in October since 2003 Our experts look at the form over hurdles

Waldgeist’s Arc victory puts him ahead of Pinatubo in the list Leading jockeys and trainers in November since 2003 ISSUE 181 RACING AHEAD

3

NOVEMBER’S BIG RACES

DELTA CAN WORK HIS MAGIC

Paul Ferguson looks ahead to the thrilling Jumps action

G

ordon Elliott invariably gets his bigger namedhorses ready for Down Royal in early November and it seems like that will be the case once again, with Delta Work being aimed at the JNWine.com Champion Chase on Saturday, November 2.

Last season’s RSA Chase third remains unexposed as a staying chaser and can announce himself in open company by providing Gigginstown House Stud with a sixth successive win in the race. Elliott has won the contest three times in the past six years himself and he also introduced Delta Work in the beginners chase over 2m4f at this two-day fixture 12 months ago. This time around, he intends on running Samcro in the race and the seven-year-old, who hasn’t been seen since the Christmas Festival at Leopardstown, can make it a meeting to remember for connections.

Beaten on his reappearance at this fixture last year, the previous season’s Ballymore winner struggled with his wellbeing thereafter and comes into this campaign with a little less pressure on him. In fact, in contrast to last year when his name was on just about everyone’s lips, he has been somewhat forgotten by many, and it will be nice to see him back in the winners’ enclosure. It should be remembered that he

4

RACING AHEAD ISSUE 181

beat Elegant Escape in his Point-toPoint, and he could easily make a big splash in the novice chase division.

WETHERBY Domestically on the same weekend, Wetherby stages the Charlie Hall Chase and Carlisle stages the 2m4f Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase the following afternoon. It is believed that La Bague Au Roi is being aimed at Wetherby and this will tell connections if she is up to contesting the King George over Christmas, and it should be remembered that she appears to be at her best in the first

Eldorado Allen

few months of the season. Bristol de Mai is reportedly on target for the Charlie Hall, too, whilst fellow Betfair Chase-bound Lostintranslation is set to kick-off his season in Colin Parker at Carlisle. Dropping back to 2m4f would seem a good move on reappearance, given that Colin Tizzard’s huge sevenyear-old can race freely at times. He really did flourish when upped in distance at Aintree and the Haydock race looks to be the ideal early-season target.

One horse who sadly won’t be in action over that weekend is Emitom who was due to join stable-mate La Bague Au Roi, on the long journey north to Wetherby. It was announced recently, however, that he had met with a setback and we probably won’t see Warren Greatrex’s good-looking five-year-old until the New Year.

CHELTENHAM’S OPEN MEETING A fortnight later Cheltenham’s threeday Open meeting takes centre stage and although entries for both the BetVictor Gold Cup and the Greatwood Hurdle have yet to close, one to note in the latter would be Eldorado Allen, despite his apparent lack of experience. Having shaped really well when third at Auteuil, he jumped particularly well when winning a Sandown maiden hurdle in heavy ground last November, and the race worked out

La Bague Au Roi

▲

really well subsequently. The five-yearold then got no further than the first hurdle at Aintree, as he was badly hampered and forced to part company with Tom O’Brien. Having picked up an injury, he was forced to miss the remainder of the season, but he is back now and will return in a handicap hurdle during November from a mark of 145. While it might seem a stiff enough mark on the face of it, the grey looked a future Graded class performer when winning at Sandown and I wouldn’t be surprised if he were to make a big impact this season. The Greatwood is a possible starting point, while there is a valuable 2m2f handicap at Haydock the following Saturday, should he need a little longer. He can land a handicap hurdle before heading into better company and is very much one who I am looking forward to.

One horse who has already been out and won impressively over hurdles recently is NIckolson and I wouldn’t

“ ELDERADO Allen looked a future Graded class performer when winning at Sandown.

Don’t be surprised if he were to make a big impact

”

ISSUE 181 RACING AHEAD

5

NOVEMBER’S BIG RACES be surprised if Olly Murphy considered having a tilt at the Grade 2 Sharp Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham with him. The son of No Risk At All quickened up smartly to score at Wincanton, whilst leaving the impression that he would appreciate a stiffer track and slightly easier ground. Given how he talks about him, Murphy clearly holds this five-year-old in fairly high regard and we saw last year with Supreme second and third, Thomas Darby and Itchy Feet, he doesn’t mind running his better novices at Cheltenham’s early season fixtures. Itchy Feet actually finished runner-up in the Sharp when attempting to concede 5lbs to Elixir de Nutz, and Nickolson is one to follow wherever he goes.

LADBROKES TROPHY The Ladbrokes Trophy will be covered in detail next month, but given the shape of the market (at the time of writing) I thought it worth touching upon in advance. Santini currently heads the betting, despite the fact that Nicky Henderson has hinted in a couple of interviews/articles that he

OK Corral

could instead reappear in a Listed intermediate chase at Sandown. Benie des Dieux is expected to remain over hurdles; La Bague Au Roi is being aimed at the Charlie Hall and King

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RACING AHEAD ISSUE 181

“

it could be that Ok Corral is half his 16/1 odds by this time next month, so he is worth backing now

”

George; and Lostintranslation has the Betfair Chase as his main target, so Colin Tizzard will aim Mister Malarky at this race.

He is respected, but at the odds (currently 16-1 with William Hill, Coral and Unibet) Ok Corral is of huge interest, particularly if stable-mate Santini does indeed skip the race. Runner-up in the 2018 Albert Bartlett, he was an easy winner on chase debut at Plumpton (beating subsequent Classic Chase winner Impulsive Star) before running out a really impressive Listed winner at Warwick, under Derek O’Connor. The lightly-raced nine-yearold, who finished runner-up to Yorkhill in a Punchestown bumper back in 2015, was then aimed at the 4m National Hunt Chase and was eventually pulled-up having been hampered with a circuit to run. Had Henderson not had Santini, he could have easily headed down the RSA route last season and even if his stable-mate lines up against him here, he would receive 12lbs from the RSA runner-up (as things stand).

Should those at the top of the market head elsewhere – as seems quite possible – it could be that Ok Corral is half those odds by this time next month, so he is worth backing now. RA

PAUL JACOBS

W

hen you come out of work at night and the headlamps go on straight away, that is the signal to post your five to follow for the forthcoming National Hunt season!

1. FRODON – Paul Nicholls To have a sound jumper on your side, flying around the undulations of the Cotswolds track is worth a far few lengths over two and a half miles and a few more over an extended three and a quarter.

Hence the inclusion of this mighty chaser in my ante-post book for the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March for which he is currently quoted at around the 25/1 mark. You could argue that he is the best leaper of a fence over a distance of ground in the UK and Ireland.

On my private ratings I have the seven-year-old some 8lbs off the best chasers in training, but there are reasons to believe that with his sound jumping he could take another step forward over a further distance.

The son of Nickname has only raced at three miles or more twice. On the first occasion he was outpaced by Might Bite, who was at the top of his game, at Sandown in November 2017 and last season when out battling Elegant Escape in the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham over an extended three miles.

What was interesting that afternoon was that the Welsh National hero looked sure to overhaul Frodon 200 yards out, but this mighty atom of a chaser picked up again in the final 50 yards and forged on.

2. MISTER MALARKY Colin Tizzard ‘Outpaced four out, stayed on strongly run-in into fourth’ - RSA Chase (Cheltenham) ‘Ridden 5 out, stayed on at the onepace’ - Betway Handicap Chase (Aintree) ‘Led 2 out, stayed on strongly to forge clear on flat’ - Reynoldstown Chase (Ascot) All three of those runs in the second 8

RACING AHEAD ISSUE 181

five-star frodon heads list Paul Jacobs with his big NH fancies

half of the season stamped this ultragame six-year-old as a bottomless stayer to go to war with this term.

It could well be that the Colin Tizzard-trained chaser has a shot at the highest class, but let’s be under no illusion, galloping is his real asset and the further he goes I fancy the better he will become with deep ground no issue whatsoever.

That makes the Welsh National at Chepstow in December the most likely target for this youngster who has looked a sound jumper in the main.

3. A PLUS TARD – Henry de Bromhead I am banking on Frodon going down the Cheltenham Gold Cup route as I have invested heavily in this chap being aimed at the Ryanair Chase in March.

His performance in landing the Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase by a full 16 lengths off a mark of 144 at Cheltenham was one of the performances of the season. Jumping for fun that day he put on the afterburners between the last two fences and fairly powered up the famous hill.

Stepped up in grade and distance for the Grade One Champion Novice Chase at the Punchestown Festival, he looked a big danger two out, but failed to get home. That performance strongly pointed to the view that two and a half miles is his trip and his trainer has already suggested he will be campaigned with the Ryanair in mind and his current odds of 20/1 look more than fair.

4. CLAN DES OBEAUX – Paul Nicholls Okay so there isn’t much we don’t already know about the King George winner and that is where I will rest my case. As Nicholls said afterwards, he just didn’t get up the hill in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham, where the late rain was a huge negative, and I fancy that he looks set to enhance the trainer’s already remarkable record in the Christmas Feature.

See More Business and Silviniaco Conti both returned to Kempton to defend their titles successfully while Kauto Star’s exploits in the race will forever go down in the history books of this great sport.

Indeed if it weren’t for the lurking shadows of Altior and Cyrname, this still relatively unexposed seven-yearold would be a 2/1 favourite for this show piece event yet he is readily available at 11/2.

He travelled like the wrath of god that day and despite idling when he hit the front, the seven-year-old was always doing enough in the closing stages to see off former winner Thistlecrack. This is the only race I shall be supporting him in this season. Post December 26 his job will be done for ante-post purposes.

5. LE RICHEBOURG – Joseph O’Brien It would be so easy to get on board the Chacun Pour Soi Champion Chase bandwagon and his dismantling of both Defi Du Seuil and Duc Des Genievres at Punchestown inevitably

pointed to this bay gelding as a possible superstar.

However, there are three reasons to possibly abstain from that route. First, he is a fragile individual (hadn’t raced for over two seasons prior to last year’s campaign), second, he could very well step up in trip, and third, there is Le Richebourg!

Winner of four of his five starts over fences, his only defeat came over two and a half miles behind Delta Work in the Drinmore, his high cruising speed and fast and efficient jumping were a hallmark of his wins, the best of which was saved for last in the Arkle Novice Chase at Leopardstown in February.

Injury meant he had to bypass Cheltenham, but the latest news is that he has fully recovered from that setback and is ready to roll towards the back end of the year. He only needs to resume his upwardly mobile path to become a serious contender for the speed crown in March. RA

Frodon

ISSUE 181 RACING AHEAD

9

PICKS FROM THE PADDOCK

Imrahor can score Andrew Ayres has seen plenty of nice prospects over the past few weeks

NEWBURY September 21 (good, good-firm) 7f two-year-old novice (Class 4) FAIR FORM IMRAHOR (Hugo Palmer) is an athletic colt and travelled like a dream for most of the race. He seemed to have oddson Cherokee Trail in trouble at the furlong pole but ran green and was just held. Jockey Kieran Shoemark said he took an age to pull up and this good-looker will be difficult to beat next time.

7f three-year-old handicap (Class 4) IMPRESSIVE WINNER BEAR FORCE ONE (Roger Teal) really is an imposing individual and ran away with this under an aggressive ride from Jason Watson. He’s got masses of scope and connections are certain he’ll develop into a cracking handicapper next spring. This fella will stay further and is one to follow.

KEMPTON September 23 (standard-slow) 1m handicap (Class 3) USEFUL EVENT EDARAAT (Roger Varian) looked in tremendous condition and was unlucky to be mugged on the line after looking certain to score at the furlong pole. He’s got a cracking record on the all-weather and will definitely win another race or two if kept busy this winter.

1m3f novice (Class 4) FAIR FORM OMNIVEGA (David Simcock) is a good-looking colt who was well 10

RACING AHEAD ISSUE 181

backed late. Unfortunately he was left with far too much to do under a modest ride from Jamie Spencer and flew home to finish third. He’s much better than the bare form indicates and will win races.

LINGFIELD September 24 (standard) 1m two-year-old maiden (Class 5) MODEST EVENT SUMMER PALACE (Alan King) was well supported and certainly looked fit enough for this debut. However, he got stuck behind a wall of beaten horses as the pace quickened and did well to run home fifth. He looks the part and should go close next time.

5f two-year-old nursery (Class 5) REASONABLE FORM LILKIAN (Shaun Keightley) looked in tremendous shape but was given a

Edaraat

desperate ride by Josephine Gordon and finished full of running in fifth. He could have won this and is definitely one to side with in a similar event.

KEMPTON September 25 (standard-slow) 7f two-year-old novice (Class 4) FAIR FORM AHDAB (Ed Dunlop) is a handsome colt from a family that has done well for this yard. He needed the run badly and lost any chance by falling out of the stalls, but showed definite signs of ability in seventh and will improve massively for the experience. He’ll make a smashing handicapper next term.

NEWMARKET September 26 (good) 1m two-year-old maiden (Class 4) DISAPPOINTINGLY SMALL FIELD THAI POWER (Andrew Balding) cost a fortune (425,000gns) and is a fine looking colt. He moved fluently to post but wasn’t ready mentally or physically to cope with some race-sharp opponents and never got competitive.

He’s going to be a different horse next season and has a bright future.

NEWMARKET September 28 (good) 7f two-year-old fillies (Class 4) BAAQY (John Gosden) is a lovely filly and really should have won this. Jim Crowley managed to get her shut in at a vital stage of the race and found the line coming too soon when he finally got clear. This big girl is way above average and should win next time.

Omnivega

KEMPTON October 1 (standard to slow) 5f two-year-old fillies’ maiden (Class 5) FAIR RACE VELETA (Clive Cox) has a fancy pedigree (half-sister to the crack miler Zonderland) and is just starting to get her act together. She ran a personal best in third and is bred to appreciate a return to longer trips – provided she consents to settle. This filly has bags of scope and could be well handicapped off 64 in nurseries.

WINDSOR October 7 (soft, heavy in places) 1m two-year-old novice (Class 5) ORDINARY EVENT BANNISTER (Tom George) is a strapping individual who pulled hard on the way to post and was far too keen through the early stages of the race. Bearing that in mind, he ran a blinder to finish fourth and clearly possesses plenty of natural ability. If this gelding learns to settle he will win races.

ASCOT October 5 (soft, heavy in places) 5f handicap (Class 5) COMPETITIVE RACE CALL ME GINGER (Jim Goldie) is held in high regard by his trainer and looked in good nick. He lacked the experience to get properly involved – this was only his fourth start – but showed more than enough to suggest he’ll develop into an above average speedster.

KEMPTON October 9 (standard to slow) 7f two-year-old novice (Class 5) DECENT RACE NUGGET (Richard Hannon) was a big eye-catcher on his debut at Newbury and built on that by chasing a smart newcomer home here. Jockey Sean Levey is a decent judge and reported that he needs another furlong and a left-handed track. Keep him on your side under those conditions.

▲

6f handicap (Class 4) DECENT RACE FOR THE GRADE TOTAL COMMITMENT (Roger Charlton) had excuses on his previous outing – bounced after a winning reappearance – and looked in great shape here. He nipped up the rail to win this with something to spare and is clearly an improving handicapper. A 5lbs rise to 85 doesn’t seem harsh and he will win again.

KEMPTON October 2 (standard-slow) 1m two-year-old novice (Class 4) ABOVE AVERAGE RACE LORD NEIDIN (Alan King) is a lengthy colt who was backward and started 50-1 for this debut. He belied that lack of confidence by travelling strongly throughout and looked a likely winner at the furlong pole. He ran out of gas from that point but ran a blinder to finish third and will be hard to beat at this level next time.

ISSUE 181 RACING AHEAD

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PICKS FROM THE PADDOCK KEMPTON October 10 (standard to slow) 6f two-year-old novice (Class 5) RUN-OF-THE-MILL EVENT JUAN LES PINS (Ed Walker) is a big, scopey individual who will develop into a smashing three-year-old. He finished strongly in fourth over an inadequate trip here and should thrive in handicaps next term.

6f two-year-old novice (Class 5) IMPRESSIVE WINNER PREMIER POWER (Roger Varian) is a proper ball of muscle and won this incredibly easily under an ultra-confident ride from Silvestre De Sousa. He looks a Group horse in the making and must be followed closely.

KEMPTON October 16 (standard to slow) 1m handicap (Class 3) WELL BACKED AND IMPRESSIVE WINNER KHUZAAM (Roger Varian) oozed class

A-Z OF PADDOCK POSITIVES AHDAB (Ed Dunlop) BAAQY (John Gosden) BANNISTER (Tom George) BEAR FORCE ONE (Roger Teal) CALL ME GINGER (Jim Goldie) EDARAAT (Roger Varian) IMRAHOR (Hugo Palmer) JUAN LES PINS (Ed Walker) KHUZAAM (Roger Varian) LILKIAN (Shaun Keightley) LORD NEIDIN (Alan King) NUGGET (Richard Hannon) OMNIVEGA (David Simcock) PACIFY (Jamie Snowden) PASEO (Oliver Sherwood) PREMIER POWER (Roger Varian) SUMMER PALACE (Alan King) THAI POWER (Andrew Balding) TOTAL COMMITMENT (Roger Charlton) VELETA (Clive Cox)

in the prelims and attracted an avalanche of late support. He duly bolted-up under an impressed Jim Crowley and will hold his own in much better company than this.

KEMPTON October 20 (good) 2m three-year-old juvenile hurdle (Class 3) RUN-OF-THE-MILL EVENT PASEO (Oliver Sherwood) looked in tip-top condition and attracted heavy support. Unfortunately the cards didn’t fall kindly and he was left with too much to do after getting trapped behind beaten horses turning for home. He finished strongly to nick second though and is nailed on to pick up a similar contest.

2m Listed novices hurdle (Class 1) IMPRESSIVE WINNER PACIFY (Jamie Snowden) is a real bull of a horse and made-all to win this with something in hand. Jockey Gavin Sheehan feels he will jump better with a lead and there’s almost certainly more to come. He’s set to move up in grade now – connections are eyeing a Grade 2 event at Cheltenham’s November Meeting – and it would be folly to underestimate him. RA

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TRENDS

a 7-year-old from a big stable will do!

Andy Newton with top trends for the BetVictor Gold Cup

BetVictor Gold Cup Betting Guide and Trends As we wave goodbye to another Flat turf season the focus switches back to the National Hunt game for the next six months or so and, as always, there’s plenty to look forward to.

We get going properly with the jumpers this month with the three-day Cheltenham Open Meeting (Nov 15-17) – which is many people’s idea of the curtain-raiser fixture for the hedgehoppers.

With three days of top action from Prestbury Park there are many decent races to take in, but it’s the BetVictor Gold Cup, which is run on the Saturday, that spearheads the meeting.

In recent years, the likes of Nigel Twiston-Davies, Paul Nicholls, Jonjo O’Neill and the Pipe yard have done very well at the meeting overall, while since 1996 those four powerful stables have won the BetVictor Gold Cup a staggering 16 times between them!

However, last year it was the Gary Moore-trained Baron Alco that landed the prize. If he comes back for more in 2019, he’ll be looking to become the first ‘back-to-back’ winner since Bradbury Star, who won the race in 1993 and 1994.

What are the other main Bet Victor Gold Cup trends to looks for?

First, having previous experience – including winning form, at Cheltenham, is a huge positive. Why? Well, ALL of the last 17 winners had tackled the tough Prestbury Park 14

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fences before, while 12 of those 16 (71%) had won a chase race at the track in the past.

Also look for horses that have won before over at least 2m4f (fences) and, also come from a UK-based yard.

Sixteen of the last 17 winners get a thumbs-up on both these trends.

While, in terms of Irish-trained winners, it’s worth noting that we’ve seen just the single success from an Irishbased runner in the last 28 runnings (Tranquil Sea, 2009).

Next up is to look at the age as there is a decent pattern building up here. Yes, two of the last three winners were aged 9 years-old so we certainly can’t rule out this age group.

However, the better overall record has been with the 6 or 7 year-olds, with 12 of the last 17 winners fitting that age bracket – backed up again last year with the 7 year-old Baron Alco winning. 53% of the last 17 winners were aged 7.

The final thing to note with the age is to look at the other end of the spectrum. You might want to put a negative cross against the older horses in the race as the last doublefigure aged winner was in 1975!

Recent form is worth looking at too as 11 of the last 17 winners recorded a top four finish last time out. But those top four finishes have not always come in a recent race as horses that are making their seasonal reappearances go okay too – 8 of the last 17 winners took this after a lay-off.

The lightly-raced, or less exposed

runners, have the better record too, with 71% of the last 17 winners having had only two or three previous wins over fences – suggesting the younger, more unexposed chasers are the ones to focus on.

With the race being a handicap it’s worth looking at the past weight of recent winners.

Eleven of the last 17 winners carried 10st-13lbs or less, backed-up again in the last two years with the winners carrying just 10-6 and 10-11.

The final trend to note is the betting market. It’s generally a race the punters get right so any support for runners in the build-up should be respected.

Thirteen of the last 17 winners won at 12/1 or shorter, while even though the favourites have won just three of the last 17 (18%), with the winners tending to be priced 12/1 or less (last year’s winner returned 8/1) it’s still the horses in the first four or five in the market that command most respect.

Of course, it doesn’t always pan out as the stats suggest, but if trends are your thing then there are certainly some meaty ones to get stuck into ahead of this race.

Don’t forget about the good records of the Pipe, Nicholls, O’Neill and Twiston-Davies stables too, so if any of their runners are also aged 6 or 7 years-old, plus have past course experience, recorded a top four finish last time out and are 12/1 or less in the betting ... then don’t ignore them!

Baron Alco wins last year

Recent BetVictor Gold Cup Winners 2018 – Baron Alco (8/1) 2017 – Splash Of Ginge (25/1) 2016 - Taquin Du Seuill (8/1) 2015 – Annacotty (12/1) 2014 – Caid Du Berlais (10/1) 2013 – Johns Spirit (7/1) 2012 – Al Ferof (8/1) 2011 – Great Endeavour (8/1) 2010 – Little Josh (20/1) 2009 – Tranquil Sea (11/2 fav) 2008 – Imperial Commander (13/2) 2007 – L’Antartique (13/2) 2006 – Exotic Dancer (16/1) 2005 – Our Vic (9/2 fav) 2004 – Celestial Gold (12/1) 2003 – Fondmort (3/1 fav) 2002 – Cyfor Malta (16/1)

BetVictor Gold Cup Betting Trends 17/17 – Had run at Cheltenham before 16/17 – Had won over at least 2m4f over fences before 16/17 – Won by a UK-based trainer 13/17 – Returned 12/1 or shorter 12/17 – Had won at Cheltenham before 12/17 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old 12/17 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences before 11/17 – Trained by Pipe (3), Jonjo O’Neill (3), Nicholls (2) or TwistonDavies (3) 11/17 – Carried 10-13 or less (But 4 of the last 7 carried 10-13 or more) 11/17 – Finished in the top 4 last time 9/17 – Won by a horse in the first 3 in the betting 9/17 – Aged 7 years-old

8/17 – Won this on their seasonal reappearance 8/17 – Placed favourites 5/17 – Won their last race 4/17 – Trained by the Pipe stable 4/17 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out 3/17 – Winning favourites 3/17 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies 3/17 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill 3/17 – Ran at Carlisle last time out 2/17 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies 1/17 – Irish-trained winners The last winner aged in double-figures was in 1975 Paul Nicholls has saddled 10 placed horses (two winners, Al Ferof & Caid Du Berlais) from his last 37 runners The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 10/1 RA

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TALKING TWO-YEAR-OLDS

Don’t write off Arizona Ian Heitman thinks Aidan O’Brien will have him ready to tackle Pinatubo in the Guineas

T

he feature Group 1 for twoyear-olds run in the UK, the Dewhurst Stakes, has been won by some of the greatest horses in the last 30 years, going all the way back to Generous in 1990, Zafonic in 1992 and Frankel in 2010.

Frankel’s win in the Dewhurst was his fourth win of his two-year-old campaign. He wasn’t the highest rated horse that day, Dream Ahead had that honour having won the Middle Park by nine lengths and given a rating of 128.

Pinatubo, like Dream Ahead, had won his previous start by nine lengths before running in the Dewhurst and just as Dream Ahead was rated 128, so was Pinatubo, the highest BHA rating given to a two-year-old. Pinatubo was bidding to extend his unbeaten run to six and was 14lb ahead of the highest rated horse Wichita who had taken the Group 3 Tattersalls Stakes at Newmarket by seven lengths 16 days earlier and was the main market rival to Pinatubo at 7/2.

Plenty of rain saw the ground at Newmarket be officially soft, the softest conditions Pinatubo had been asked to race on. As well as Wichita in the line-up, there were seven other rivals to Pinatubo who was sent off the 1/3 favourite, only Dawn Approach who won in 2012 as the 30/100 favourite had been shorter in the betting for the Dewhurst since 2006.

Wichita, the mount of Ryan Moore, was one of four in the race for Aidan O’Brien. Arizona, well beaten by Pinatubo when the pair met in Ireland on their most recent start was the

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second string with Monarch Of Egypt and Year Of The Tiger completing the Ballydoyle quartet.

The home challenge was led by Group 3 Solario winner Positive who looked in good shape and was the 8/1 third favourite. He failed to get involved, held up in the rear, he was well beaten in sixth. He presumably failed to act on the soft ground, the first time he had encountered such conditions.

Arizona had the run of the race from the front setting a fair pace with his stablemates, Monarch Of Egypt and Wichita, racing keenly in touch.

Pinatubo was held up in midfield by William Buick, making a move with three furlongs to go. Both Monarch Of Egypt and Wichita had every chance entering the last two furlongs, but they couldn’t go with Arizona and Pinatubo inside the last furlong and a half.

Pinatubo grabbed the lead off Arizona with 150 yards to go and he stayed on well to win by two lengths with a further two- and three-quarter lengths to Wichita in third.

While this performance from Pinatubo wasn’t as flash as the win in Ireland, it proved he acts on soft ground and that he is very much to the one to beat in the 2000 Guineas back at Newmarket in May. He doesn’t have the scope of Arizona who has developed through the year into a big strong colt, but he should be able to extend his unbeaten record to seven in the first classic of the year. His trainer Charlie Appleby thinks he will stay the Derby trip of a mile and a half and he might well do on pedigree, but his size

suggests he will be better off at a mile.

Arizona has improved one place in each of his three runs in Group 1 company since winning the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot and given Aiden O’Brien is fantastic at getting one ready for the 2000 Guineas, he will be giving Pinatubo plenty to think about on the first Saturday in May. While this was the feature race of Newmarket’s autumn two-year-old programme, a fortnight earlier there was an excellent three-day meeting with a number of Group races.

CAMBRIDGESHIRE MEETING The meeting began with a disappointing turnout of five runners for a mile maiden. Mascat got the better of Discovery Island inside the last 100 yards to win for Ralph Beckett and Harry Bentley, the first of a number of winners the pair would enjoy at the Rowley Mile in the coming weeks. Thai Power, an expensive colt by Kingman trained by Andrew Balding, was the pick of the paddock but he failed to get involved, beating only one rival. He should do better with the experience behind him.

Dogged provided David Elsworth with his first two-year-old winner of the year in the following nursery also over a mile. He held on well to be Cloud Drift who appeared to improve for a gelding operation.

The feature two-year-old race on the card was the Group 3 Tattersalls Stakes where Wichita proved way too strong for his five rivals, drawing clear to win by seven lengths under Ryan Moore.

Arizona

length. Hibernian Warrior made up ground from the rear to be third but was never dangerous. The fourth placed horse, Society Lion, won his next start at Yarmouth on heavy ground, racing in touch with the pace set by Jumaira Bay, he led a furlong and a half from the finish beating that rival by two and a half lengths, the fourth second time out winner of the year for Sir Michael Stoute.

Day three of the meeting began with the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes over a mile. Kameko was the hot favourite having been just touch off by Positive in the Group 3 Solario Stakes on his last start. He had every chance racing close to the pace and was in front with a furlong to go. He couldn’t hold off the challenge of Royal Dornoch who having also raced close to the pace got up close to the finish to win by a neck in a new two-year-old course record for a mile and provided Aidan O’Brien with a seventh win in the race.

The first of two Group 1 races for two-year-olds, the Cheveley Park Stakes over 6f was up next. Raffle Prize was beaten a neck by Earthlight

in Group 1 company taking on colts last time she ran the Prix Morny and was backed into 10/11 favouritism to give Mark Johnston a first Group 1 winner since The Last Lion won the Middle Park Stakes in 2016 (50 runners with 10 finishing second). Earthlight’s trainer, Andre Fabre saddled the second favourite, Tropbeau, who had won her previous three starts in France over 7f.

Etoile, one of two in the race for Aidan O’Brien, had been off the track since mid-May having made a winning debut in Group 3 company at Naas. A big filly, she raced close to the pace and travelled well for Donnacha O’Brien but was unable to quicken over furlong from the finish and finished eighth. She is one to keep an eye on in 2020. The other O’Brien runner, Tango, helped to set the pace with Lowther winner, Living In The Past, and Raffle Prize. Tropbeau was held up

by Mikael Barzalona, making progress with a couple of furlongs to go and not having the clearest of runs through as they entered the last furlong. Raffle Prize had kicked for home by this

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The feature two-year-old race on the second day was the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes over 7f for fillies which attracted a field of eight. Daahyeh was the strong 11/8 favourite dropping down in grade having finished second in Group 1 company in Ireland last time. She made fairly hard work of beating her seven rivals, taking the lead a furlong and a half from the finish, idling close home and only having half a length to spare ahead of her stablemate Stylistique who remains a maiden. One length covered the first four, Cloak Of Spirits, ran much better than she had done when favourite for a Group 2 race at Doncaster last time whilst Under The Stars got much closer to the winner than she had done when the pair met at the Curragh last time.

Under The Stars scooped a big prize only eight days later over 6f at Newmarket, getting up close to the finish to deny Mild Illusion in a £150,000 sales race.

New World Tapestry put his experience to good use to win the 7f maiden, holding off the challenge of newcomer Colour Image by three quarters of a

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TALKING TWO-YEAR-OLDS

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Daahyeh

with their mounts. Earthlight made progress inside the two-furlong marker, challenging Mums Tipple and Golden Horde over a furlong from the finish. King Neptune was still right there with every chance despite having no other horse to race with.

Earthlight took the lead off Golden Horde with 100 yards to go but Golden Horde battled well and went down by a neck to the French raider with Summer Sands running a career best to be third. King Neptune ran a great race to be fourth. Mums Tipple failed to pick up and came back with a small injury, he is worth another chance to confirm the favourable impression he made at York. Threat never challenged, neither did Lope Y Fernandez or Monarch Of Egypt.

Earthlight remains unbeaten and will be back at Newmarket to contest the 2020 2000 Guineas, a race Fabre last won in 1995 with Pennekamp. Earthlight is 9/1 second favourite behind hot favourite Pinatubo. Golden Horde is likely to be kept to sprint distances in 2020 with the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot a likely target.

Summer Sands was turned out seven days later by Richard Fahey in

the Listed Redcar Two-Year-Old Trophy. With only 8st 3lb on his back, he was the red hot 11/8 favourite for the £99,000 first prize and he didn’t let his supporters down, winning easily by two and a three-quarter lengths from Troubador with Desert Safari running well on his third start. Fourth placed Abarama Gold finished well having raced in a group of three in the centre of the track. He was turned out seven days later and won the Listed Rockingham Stakes over 6f at York on testing ground which didn’t suit the well supported favourite Lampang who was off the bridle early but is said to be one of the best horses Tim Easterby has trained.

Lady Lynetta got off the mark at the third attempt in the 7f fillies maiden giving Richard Hughes a first winner at the Rowley Mile, beating an unlucky in running Raaqy. There was promise from a couple of debutants, Evening Spirit who was well backed from the Ralph Beckett yard and Folk Dance who kept on well under a hands and heels ride from Jamie Spencer.

Huboor took the final two-year-old race of the meeting, a 7f fillies nursery, for leading two-year-old trainer

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point under Frankie Dettori and looked like winning with 100 yards to go but Millisle finished strongest of all against the rail and grabbed the lead with 50 yards to go, winning by a length and three quarters in another two-year-old course record. Raffle Prize ran well having raced up with the pace throughout whilst Tropbeau met trouble in running. Only five and a three-quarter lengths covered the first eight suggesting it might not be top class form.

Millisle’s trainer Jessica Harrington won’t be too concerned about that however, Millisle going one place better than when she was caught close to the finish by Dark Lady (seventh this time) at Salisbury last time and providing her trainer with a first Group 1 victory since the exploits of Alpha Centauri in 2018.

Both Millisle and Raffle Prize will be aimed at the 1000 Guineas in May, however with stamina questions about both fillies, there will be stronger candidates for the first fillies classic of the year.

What was billed as one of the best two-year-old races of the season, the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes, lost one of its star attractions, Siskin, when he became upset in the stalls and had to be withdrawn. Thankfully, he wasn’t injured and will back as three-year-old defending an unbeaten record.

With Siskin’s absence, a field of eight did leave the stalls, with another unbeaten colt, Earthlight the 11/4 favourite for Andre Fabre and Mikael Barzalona. Mums Tipple, also unbeaten and so impressive at York in August was the 3/1 second favourite. Also in the line-up were Champagne Stakes winner, Threat, Richmond Stakes winner, Golden Horde and three from the Aidan O’Brien yard, Lope Y Fernandez, Monarch Of Egypt and King Neptune. 100/1 outsider, Summer Sands completed the field.

King Neptune went off quickly and raced alone in the centre of track whilst Golden Horde led the main group of runners towards the stands side. Most of the runners appeared to travel well, it wasn’t until the pace lifted with a couple of furlongs to go that the jockeys started to get serious

Dogged (left)

Pinatubo

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TALKING TWO-YEAR-OLDS Mark Johnston, by half a length from Separate and Last Surprise.

DUBAI FUTURE CHAMPIONS MEETING The two-day Dubai Future Champions meeting on October 11th and 12th began with the Group 3 Cornwallis Stakes over 5f. Good Vibes held off the challenge of Pistoletto inside the last furlong, winning by a neck, and providing her trainer David Evans with a first Group winner since 2010. Jouska,

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who got warm beforehand, finished strongly from the rear to grab third.

Platinum Star, the 5/4 favourite, was very disappointing, never managing to challenge, finishing seventh.

Rose Of Kildare had to give 3lb to her eight rivals in the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes over 7f having won the Group 3 Firth Of Clyde Stakes at Ayr on her previous start. She kept on well under strong pressure inside the last furlong to defy that penalty, beating once-raced winner, Valeria Messalina

by a neck with Separate running well again a further neck away in third.

Rose Of Kildare is typical of Mark Johnston’s horses who thrive on racing, this her 12th start of the year, with five wins.

Costing just 3,000 Euros last year, her yearling half-brother went through the ring at the Tattersalls Book 2 Sales for 170,000 guineas a couple of weeks ago. Rose Of Kildare was the first Group winner for her first season sire Make Believe who has made a steady

start to his stud career.

The feature race in the card was the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile with a first prize in excess of £321,000. Nine fillies lined up with three putting their unbeaten records on the line, 9/4 favourite, Quadrilateral, 11/4 second favourite Cayenne Pepper and 7/1 chance Powerful Breeze. Love, winner of the Moyglare Stud Stakes and the only Group 1 winner in the line-up was 4/1.

Group 3 winner Boomer took the lead with three furlongs to go with Love a big danger. Powerful Breeze who had missed the break, made good progress two furlongs from the finish, took the lead a furlong and a half left to go and looked like winning but Quadrilateral, who had been chased along two furlongs from the finish, was switched to the inside by Jason Watson and they finished strongly inside the last 100 yards, getting the lead in the last strides and winning by a head, providing her trainer Roger Charlton and Watson with their first domestic Group 1 success in their first year working together. Love was a further length and a half away in third, whilst Cayenne Pepper never really challenged in fourth.

Quadrilateral and Powerful Breeze will be both be aimed at the 1000 Guineas, 6/1 favourite and 10/1 respectively, and there shouldn’t be too much between them again.

Day two of the meeting began with a nursery over 7f and it was to be the start of a fantastic day for Ralph Beckett and Harry Bentley who had four winners on the card. Tomfre, the firs of them, defied top weight beating Milltown Star by half a length.

The Zetland Stakes over a mile and a quarter had been upgraded from a Listed race to a Group 3 race in 2019 and Max Vega won easily for Beckett and Bentley, leading a furlong and half from the finish and running on strongly inside the last furlong to win by an easy three lengths from previously unbeaten Miss Yoda with Berkshire Rocco in third. Mythical, the 2/1 favourite, stayed on to be fourth but never challenged. He has the scope to train on well at three, whilst Max Vega, who clearly stays extremely well, is only small.

One of the best-looking horses at

Good Vibes

the meeting was Military March and he made it two wins from two starts in the next race, the Group 3 Autumn Stakes. He and Al Suhail were neck and neck in the last two furlongs, Military March staying on the better of the pair inside the last 50 to win by a head with a seven-length gap to the third, maiden Ropey Guest. Military March has a pedigree for a mile and a half, his dam, Punctilious won the Yorkshire Oaks, and it will be a surprise if he doesn’t develop into a Derby contender in 2020 for Saeed bin Suroor.

FRENCH RACING The only two-year-old race on the first day of the Arc two-day meeting, a sales race, saw David Menuisier saddle the first and third, Into Faith and Luigi Vampa, winning over £158,000 in the process. Into Faith had shown only fair form in two starts in the UK but finished off strongly from the rear to lead inside the last 100 metres and take home the valuable pot.

Andrew Balding was another British trainer to win a valuable race across the Channel recently. Shadn, third in the Mill Reef behind impressive winner Pierre Lapin, won the Group 2 Criterium de Maisons-Laffitte on October 12.

He just got the better of Devil close to the finish, the pair pulling clear from recent Listed winner Sir Boris who had shown good pace.

Despite having plenty of two-yearold winners, Archie Watson’s strike rate in Listed and Group races isn’t great, only 6%. His only Listed winner from 19 runners in 2019 came at Chan-

tilly on September 30 when Band Practice led all the way under champion jockey Oisin Murphy.

NOVICE/MAIDEN RACES Kinross looked a colt with a bright future when he ran away with a 7f novice by eight lengths at Newmarket on October 5. He travelled strongly throughout the race and picked up in good style for Harry Bentley and he looks a smart prospect for 2020 for Ralph Beckett.

White Moonlight led all the way in the one-mile novice, carrying a penalty for her debut win, winning by threeand three-quarter lengths. She will no doubt be campaigned in Dubai in the new year by Saeed bin Suroor and with her sire, Medaglia d’Oro being a top-class dirt performer.

While we see plenty of horses sired

by Medaglia d’Oro, horses sired by another top-class US dirt performer, Curlin, that run in the UK are pretty rare.

Desert Peace was the first since 2014 when he made an impressive winning debut for Charlie Appleby and William Buick at Kempton on October 9. He drew clear inside the last 100 yards to win by a length and three quarters albeit in a time slower than Higher Kingdom recorded in the second division of the 7f novice.

A final mention goes to Tom Ward, who having been assistant trainer to Richard Hannon, saddled his first winner at Windsor on October 7. Vintage Rascal, his first two-year-old runner, ran away with the one-mile novice, winning by four and a half lengths. RA ISSUE 181 RACING AHEAD

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IRISH RACING

meade jumps off to a fast start T

Karl Hedley looks at some early winners in the jumps season

he jumps season proper has just got underway here in Ireland and we already have seen some exciting prospects for the season ahead. At the beginning of the month, we saw the consistent and likeable Raya Time get off the mark over hurdles at Clonmel.

This bold front-runner was always going to be popular given a string of placed efforts last season, but this was his first win since joining Henry De Bromhead. The ever-popular Rachel Blackmore had him in front from the get go and the combination put in a near perfect round to win by a good dozen lengths.

Now that De Bromhead has secured that lucrative and notable first win

Flash The Steel

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over hurdles with the six-year-old, the intention is to get him over fences sooner rather than later. He said: “The plan is now to go chasing. We felt that he was entitled to have one last go at a maiden hurdle and it worked out. Subject to confirmation with the owners he will go chasing now and the way he jumps fences at home he ought to do well as a chaser.”

At Gowran Park a few days later, we saw the welcome return of the talented Snow Falcon. He was absolutely friendless in the market and drifted from 5s to 7/1 in the betting. Having absorbed an injury following a win at Down Royal last year, the nine-yearold missed almost six months of action on the track.

In three subsequent starts. including

an appearance at Royal Ascot in the Ascot Stakes, he was finishing closer to last than first. Clearly a break over the summer has rekindled that enthusiasm. Trainer Noel Meade said: “He’s very good when he’s fresh. The ground went against him in Ascot and we let him out and I didn’t think there was any possibility he could be ready for this.

“But Emma (Connolly) who rides him out and loves him more than anyone kept saying he’s there. We worked him over a mile on the Tuesday and he worked brilliant, so we said we’d have to go ahead and run him.

You would imagine the obvious place to go with him now is back to Down Royal as it is the big chase and his owner is from Belfast and I’d say he’d love him to run there.

“He’s had a few little issues here and there. Last year when he won in the north, he cracked a bone behind and that is why we didn’t see him for the rest of the season. He’s been some servant and is a fabulous horse for us to have.”

On the same card Dallas Des Pictons was also making his seasonal reappearance. He won a maiden hurdle at Punchestown last January before following up over an extra half mile at Leopardstown just a few weeks later.

He was considered good enough to be sent to Cheltenham to contest the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap where he ran a fantastic race

Nordano

lead and we knew that Eddie Harty’s horse (Advantage Point) falling would be a disaster.” There will be bigger and better days ahead in larger fields for this improving six-year-old.

Sweet Flight proved disappointing in the opening maiden hurdle at Tipperary last year for Willie Mullins and the trainer hoped he would do better with the JP McManus owned Janidil this time around. He hadn’t been seen since finishing second of 15 in a similar event at Tramore back in January where he was beaten just over a length

by Notebook.

Janidil was supported as though defeat was out of the question here and it certainly was. With Mark Walsh on his back the combination led from flag fall to finish and they pulled almost three lengths clear of the Henry De Bromhead-trained Tiger Voice. The front pair pulled some 27 lengths clear of the third placed Good-

bye Someday and both look to have exciting prospects ahead.

De Bromhead did not have to wait too long for another winner as he saddled Imperial View in the following race. She tracked the leaders through the race and despite a slight mistake at the seventh, stayed on powerfully to win going away by almost three lengths.

De Bromhead said: “She is a lovely mare and we bought her out of a point to point last year from Michael Murphy in Wexford who recommended her.

She seems a lovely mare who seemed green and hopefully she will improve again. She is a real chasing mare, Rachel (Blackmore) was brilliant on her and she looked a staying type there.”

Novice chasing looks to be on the agenda for the exciting Noel Meade prospect Daly Tiger following a runaway success also at Tipperary.

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to finish second to Early Doors.

A trip to Aintree came next where he ran in the Doom Bar Sefton Novices’ Hurdle. The race obviously came far too soon as he trailed in last of the finishers.

He, too, has clearly benefited from a break and must have been schooling well over his fences to merit an entry for this. It was only a five runner affair but it certainly had more than its fair share of drama as three of the runners either unshipped their jockeys or fell.

Dallas Des Pictons had the class and the resolve to see him through and a 20-length success will have been a massive confidence booster.

Trainer Gordon Elliott said afterwards: “Jack (Kennedy) said that when he was on his own he was looking around him. At Cheltenham he cantered till he got to the front and then pulled up when he got beat there. He’s a horse that would be better with a

ISSUE 181 RACING AHEAD

23

IRISH RACING Meade said: “He schooled very well at home and I told Sean Flanagan not to do anything fancy on him and to try and get him over those fences. He will jump even better when he has to. If he stays right, I think he is a very nice horse.

Meade added: “He had a problem with his knee over hurdles and never really got the chance to show himself.

It happened early as a novice but hopefully it won’t rear its head again.

There are a lot of Gigginstown horses in the mix for novice chases this season and we have to see where he fits in. Trying to get a run was a problem but now that he has won, Michael (O’Leary) wants to go for good races.

We’ll go for a novice chase and see where we go from there.”

The following day Meade was in the winners’ enclosure again following a success in a maiden hurdle for Battle Of Midway. The ground was bottomless at Galway but it didn’t stop this improving five-year-old from getting his head in front.

It may have taken three runs for him to land his bumper at Navan in March, but he was ready and able at the first time of asking over hurdles here.

Meade said: “He stays well and loved the ground. He seemed to outstay the other fellow (runner up Thatsy) and he could go up to three miles now. His jumping was a bit rusty early but he got going as the race went on and we’ll see now how we go with him.

Sean (Flanagan) said the ground couldn’t be soft enough for him.”

Future Race Meetings The jumps season will begin to move up a gear in the next few weeks and I always look forward to the November meeting at Down Royal on the outskirts of Belfast.

The crowd are always buzzing even in what can be the dreariest of weather conditions. The course has been subject to a recent documentary The Horsey Set on the BBC, dealing with the prospect of a dispute between the old management team and the course owners Merrion. The owners were adamant that the racecourse should continue to operate and brought in a new management team headed up by 24

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Make Me A Believer

chief executive Emma Meehan and that is clearly reaping huge benefits.

The racecourse has secured a major three-year sponsorship deal with craft spirit, Shortcross Gin. The agreement will see the County Down-based company become the racecourse’s exclusive Irish spirit partner, giving the brand naming rights for Down Royal’s premium hospitality suite.

‘The Shortcross Gin Suite’ will give the brand a presence amonge the 50,000 racegoers that have already attended Down Royal in 2019.

In another boost to the new team, Ladbrokes has been unveiled as the new sponsor of the November Festival of Racing in a three-year partnership.

The six-figure deal, the largest in Down Royal’s history, will see the bookmaker take on title sponsorship of the first Grade 1 Champion Chase of the National Hunt season, with a prize fund of €140,000.

The long-established two-day Festival – staged on November 1-2 – is the highlight of the racing calendar at Down Royal and has an exceptional role of honour including great chasers such as Kauto Star, Beef or Salmon, The Listener, Looks Like Trouble, Florida Pearl and Don Cossack.

Friday, November 1 will see the richest hurdle race in Northern Ireland – The WKD Hurdle – while the Ladbrokes Grade 1 Champion Chase will run on Saturday November 2.

Chief Executive Emma Meehan, said: “We are delighted to welcome Ladbrokes to our growing family of key sponsors and partners and look forward to working with them over the next three years. The November Festival is set to be the biggest yet and with attendance up twelve per cent year-on-year, we are anticipating a crowd of over 10,000 over the two days”.

From a racecourse that looked on the brink of closure following the Boxing Day meeting last year, it seems safe to say that the racing future for Down Royal is bright.

Punters have already been flocking to purchase packs enabling them access to the marquee for as little as £25 on each of the two days. UK based trainers have enjoyed notable successes when making the short journey over to Northern Ireland as Paul Nicholls and more recently Ian Jardine have proved and it will come as no surprise to see other top British yards following suit. RA

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EDDIE WOOD

T

he user of any selection approach must be accurate in their interpretation and usage of all performanceaffecting factors/variables.

However, many people back racehorses without due diligence to the ground conditions their selections are racing on. Of course, numerous factors determine the outcome of any horserace, but we believe that ground conditions are a highly significant performance-affecting factor/variable when all the horses are race fit and running in their right Class.

The British Horseracing Authority (BHA) has defined seven race conditions: 1. Heavy 2. Soft 3. Good to Soft 4. Good 5. Good to Firm 6. Firm 7. Hard These terms can be combined to give a more accurate description of the going, for example: Good, Good to Soft in places. The Going Report is usually available seven days prior to each race meeting and is updated regularly. A ‘Going Map’ is also produced, indicating any variance in Going conditions around the racecourse.

Other information may also be given alongside the official going, such as ‘watering’, which is when the Clerk of the Course deems it necessary to water the course if the weather has been particularly dry.

Since 31st March 2007, every turf racecourse in the UK has been required by the BHA to publish a TurfTrax Going Stick reading alongside the official Going description. Developed in conjunction with Cranfield University, the Going Stick scientifically measures ‘penetration’ and ‘shear’ – the two forces exerted by the horse’s hoof when it strikes the ground.

The Going Stick uses a measurement scale ranging from 1 to 15: the lower the number, the softer or slower the ground; the higher the number, the firmer or faster the ground.

Any horse that has not run well on 26

RACING AHEAD ISSUE 181

grounds for real concern Eddie Wood on why the going should always be high on your priorities

the prevailing surface should be eliminated from your list of qualifiers. This is especially the case if the conditions are likely to change. Therefore, it is essential that you have access to the going requirements of each horse. A subscription to Raceform is desirable but not essential as The Weekender has the information we require. The Racing Post is also a useful reference point as their form guides give the ground conditions for each runner.

A sister publication, The Racing and Football Outlook, is published every Tuesday with a going and draw item for each course racing that week. It is an ideal guide to both conditions.

We have also found the work of the late John White useful in our research.

In his booklet, 1st Past the Post, he states that: “The most convincing explanation of why some horses produce their best form in heavy ground for example has been provided by Phil Bull, founder of Timeform … (the) fluency in soft or heavy ground depends on a horse’s weight, since a heavy horse has to exert great effort to pull his feet out of mud whereas a light horse may well ‘skim over’ the top of it.”

Bull’s hypothesis is not true for all horses, races, and racecourses and Jess and I will analyse appropriate factors and present our findings in a future article.

For now, we will give you an instance that questions the Timeform

legends viewpoint. Party Politics won the 1992 Grand National at Aintree on good to soft ground. He stood at almost 18 hands and was the heaviest horse in the race. A horse of his weight is surely impeded by any ground condition with soft in its title.

In contrast, many writers assert that you should not bet on extremes of going such as hard and heavy. However, we believe that if you can narrow down the field to the runners who act well on the prevailing ground conditions, you have a shortlist which will undoubtedly include the winner.

It will be very clear to you about what we mean by “prevailing ground conditions” and several qualifiers in a fair number of races can be eliminated because they only “act” on the going and do not “go” on it. In the last furlong of sprint races, and in the last two furlongs of longer distance races, you can clearly see which of these concepts apply. The “act” horses will drop back rapidly whereas the “go” horses will accelerate to the urging of their rider usually during the final two furlongs.

It is obvious that the horse with the greatest ability will win most races, but it will not do so on adverse ground conditions. Exceptions appear when a horse is dropped in Class, where they can “act” on the going and their superior ability sees them prevail. An example can be found in 2yo’s and Maiden 3yo’s who often win their ear-

lier races on soft going, which is incompatible with their breeding.

However, they cannot repeat a win on similar ground conditions in later races. Always check when soft ground abounds if the horse has won or run well as a 3yo.

This is often reflected in the betting market. Often, whether a horse is backed or not is an excellent indicator of it being able to act on the prevailing going. Connections of our equine friends are not fools and good money will not be placed if their charge is unsuited to today’s going.

If you apply the principle performance-affecting tests in any method, Class and the prevailing ground conditions, you will improve the results you obtain for any selection criteria. So, the motto is think twice before you support a horse that has not won in today’s race conditions. This is especially the case when there are several horses which fit this criterion. Until next time, good investing. RA

Clerk of the course Tim Long checks the ground conditions

Mathematical Winners Profit Summary Jan-18 to September-19 All you need to operate the system is a newspaper or smart phone and your Betfair account.

Look at the day’s race cards and quickly identify races of interest, usually 2 or 3.

Look at Betfair a few minutes before these race and using one rule make the final selection and place your bet.

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www.sportsworldpublishing.co.uk or email customercare@sportsworldpublishing.co.uk 01226 214 962 ISSUE 181 RACING AHEAD

27

PHOTO SPECIAL

all aboard the pony express MYSTIC DREAMER and Alfie Diaper hit the front – and stayed there – in the ‘Bob Champion Cancer Trust Raceday Shetland Pony Derby at Plumpton.

Thirteen runners lined up on their miniature ponies and ten-year-old Alfie, in his distinctive yellow star helmet, said: “I got probably the best start I have ever had in a Flat race, then just kicked on and prayed for my life.”

Alfie, from Bournemouth, has been riding since he was three and was doubly happy because he has recently been in hospital after rupturing his spleen in a fall from his bike.

The Bob Champion Cancer Trust was founded by jockey Bob Champion who was diagnosed with testicular cancer in 1979 and given eight months to live. But two years later he rode Aldanti to win the Grand National. The trust has so far raised over £15m to combat cancer. RA Photo: Paul Jacobs/pictureexclusive.com

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ISSUE 181 RACING AHEAD

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CHEPSTOW

Skelton duo take early silverware

Jack Williams on the opening day of the Jumps season at Chepstow

C

hepstow opened the Jump season with the Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle on October 12 and a triumph for the trainer and jockey combination of brothers Dan and Harry Skelton.

Flash The Steel, sent off at odds of 16/1 after a five-month break following his gallant fifth at Sandown at the end of April to Getaway Trump took the rise in class in his stride to win the Cotswold Stone Supplies Ltd-sponsored race by two lengths from Champagne Court, with Imperial Aura a further two lengths behind.

At three out Indefatigable and Imperial Aura attempted to press on for home, with Champagne Court, Flash The Steel and Alrightjack going after them.

Ballyandy was pitching in behind but was never closer. Imperial Aura flattened two out as Flash The Steel came alongsides to challenge.

On the long run to the last Champagne Court and Flash The Steel galloped on remorselessly, the latter rising two lengths ahead at the hurdle. It wasn’t the most fluent of jumps but it kept him ahead, and he ground out the victory as Champagne Court rallied gamely but could never be nearer than two lengths.

Imperial Aura stayed on for third, an error at two out more than likely blowing his chances for a top two finish.

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Rest of the action Fergal O’Brien loves a good party, especially if cake is involved, and it was his Jarveys Plate who spoiled it all for favourite backers as he reeled in the 4/5f Reserve Tank in the Low Cost Vans Novices Chase.

Running for the Robert Mottram Memorial Trophy in this Listed affair, jockey Paddy Brennan had him settled in the rear of the trio who went to post, content to let rivals Reserve Tank and the Paul Nicholls trained Posh Trish bowl along in front in this two and a half mile contest, where all contenders were making their chase debuts.

Posh Trish went into the lead at the start and jumped boldly all the way round, where approaching the home straight Jarveys Plate looked the most unlikely of winners as he was the first to come under a more sustained effort. Posh Trish dropped to third after three out, where Reserve Tank went into the lead.

It was clear that Jarveys had not read the script, however, finding plenty for pressure and sweeping up to join the favourite over the last. Where he flew the last, the favourite fluffed his lines and lost momentum, managing only to find himself at one pace as his challenger flew away to score by four and a half lengths.

A return to his best success over hurdles looks likely, with an entry in the Steel Plate & Sections Novices

Chase at Cheltenham’s November meeting being mooted.

Nordano had made a seamless transition to juvenile hurdling at Huntingdon ten days previously, and swiftly followed up in smooth style when taking the Champion Hats Juvenile Hurdle under champion conditional Bryony Frost.

A striking son of Jukebox Jury, he made all to score by three lengths from Catch The Cuban and Repetitio, hurdling fluently and giving the indication he will make some chaser in years to come.

Coming down the home straight the well-touted favourite Sir Psycho joined the leader at three out and looked set to pounce, but the leader responded to his jockey’s urgings, neatly jumping the last two hurdles. Sir Psycho couldn’t keep tabs on the leader and started to drop away from contention.

Nordano stayed on resolutely to win by three lengths a shade cosily, giving the impression there is more to come.

A trip to Cheltenham’s November meeting for the Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle may well await for him.

Tom O’Brien returned to the scene of one of his greatest victories when partnering the Ian Williams-trained Speed Company to success in the Gent Transport And Warehousing 45th Anniversary Handicap Hurdle.

Forever entwined as the rider of last season’s Welsh National hero Elegant Escape, he timed his run perfectly to

Flash The Steel

Picture by JTW Equine images

quicken clear of Quoi De Neuf and Highest Sun and score by four and a half lengths.

River Bray attempted to stretch the field out leaving the back straight, but Quoi De Neuf and Howling Milan quickly caught up on the turn for home, just as Speed Company made eye catching progress heading towards two out. Crooks Peak tried to go on at the far side but cracked heading to the last as Speed Company made rattling progress to score decisively, sealing his victory with a great leap at the last and powerfully easing away under a confident ride.

Aside from a sixth in the Welsh National, last season was a write off for the Nigel Twiston-Davies trained Ballyoptic, but he made sure he started this season in much better style with victory in the Native River Handicap Chase under the trainer’s son Sam. Winless since the 2018 Towton Novices Chase at Wetherby, he put that right with a stellar display of front

running and accurate jumping, in a performance that left his rivals toiling.

Drinks Interval faded at five out as Ballyoptic and Lil Rockerfeller went on as one to three out. Ballyoptic got away faster from the latter and opened up a five length lead over two out, staying on stoutly towards the last. He flew that and stayed on powerfully to score by ninelengths from a gallant Lil Rockerfeller and Relentless Dreamer, with Cloth Cap a further 19 lengths behind in fourth.

The Bay Birch caused an upset when taking the John Ayres Memorial Handicap Chase at 20/1 for trainer Matt Sheppard and jockey Sean Bowen.

Always travelling strongly, the mare saw off a field filled with classy handicappers, and a few that are touted as Graded class, such as the Kim Bailey trained Charbel, last year’s winner.

Aintree My Dream and The Bay Birch were both sent for home by their respective jockeys entering the home stretch, and approaching the final

ditch of four out it was clear that the latter had stolen a march on the field.

Approaching three out she had seen off the challengers apart from Theo, Activial and Caid Du Lin, who had made stealthy progress through the field.

Ultimately however it was a vain attempt as The Bay Birch kept up the gallop relentlessly, and albeit for a slight mishap at the last, jumped beautifully to score by a comfortable two and three quarter lengths from Caid Du Lin, Activial and Theo.

The final race was the “Chris & Lisa’s Big Birthday Bash” Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race, a fiercelycontested affair with 12 runners heading to post. It turned into a very close finish with victory going to the David Pipe-trained Make Me A Believer, ridden by David Noonan. He battled on with grim determination to defeat Everglow by a neck, with a further neck to Kilbrook, who was making his debut for Jonjo O’Neill. RA ISSUE 181 RACING AHEAD

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OUT IN THE STICKS

King maiden has more to offer Jeremy Grayson has been keeping them peeled at the nation’s smaller tracks

WINCANTON, 17 October (Good) 1m7f65yds Maiden Hurdle (Class 4) In practice a second-season novice hurdler but still only four starts into this phase of his career, NEBUCHADNEZZAR can number one French 2m2f-2m3f hurdles scorer among his otherwise predominately Flat-oriented pedigree and looks very much like one in need of such a trip himself. On the face of it not done any favours for a switch to handicapping with an initial mark in the 120s, it’s worth noting that Alan King’s Planteur gelding didn’t help himself overly much on occasion last winter while keen-going traits were still being unlearned, and he could yet prove himself a deal better than both those efforts and this reappearance run if deriving sufficient benefit from the latter.

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2m5f82yds 0-110 Handicap Hurdle (class 4) Bred in County Durham but originally campaigned as an Irish pointer, HEAVEY hails from the broader family of those grand staying chasers of yesteryear Golden Freeze and Sparky Gayle, and will similarly require fences and a stouter test than today’s provided in the near future. Not at all unfeasibly treated for this very quick switch to handicaps on the form of July’s Perth maiden hurdle success (2m4f, good), a gallop only marginally less pedestrian than the one he had to contend with that day once again looked an imperfect fit, and an eventual near-7l third, keeping on, can’t be crabbed especially. More forcing tactics haven’t been tried out on Neil Mulholland’s son of Trans Island as yet, and perhaps either a switch to that strategy, or else a challenge closer to 3m in distance, can effect further improvement over hurdles before his true calling of steeplechasing awaits. Extremes of

going have yet to be encountered.

FAKENHAM, 18 October (Good, good to soft in places) 2m3yds (+158yds) CJ Selling Handicap Hurdle (class 5, no ceiling) The only two horses out of the six to line up without headgear on here were probably the two who could have benefitted the most from it, with runner-up Ballyellis proving in need of pacifying and 10l third JOYCETICK once again untidy at his hurdles. Indeed, it’s surprising that one who’s come to grief on three of his most recent seven jumping starts (and made errors in some of the others) has never worn anything other than a tongue tie in this country, and Nick Littmoden’s gelded son of Myboycharlie, a juvenile hurdle winner in southwest France (2m1f, good) two years back, has to be worth a go in a concentration aid around a course where he can better organise himself over his flights than Fakenham. A mark which has dipped 12lb in the past eighteen months, and ought not be going back up after this still fair effort, looks ripe for exploiting if all falls right.

MARKET RASEN, 19 October (Good to soft, soft in places on chase course) 2m4f139yds (+216yds) Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (class 4) Not much about the way her hur-

▲

3m1f30yds 0-125 Handicap Chase (class 3) BARBROOK STAR’s blowout at Chepstow when last seen in April took some forgiving, but a 17l sixth on this first outing since was much more like it, considering Philip Hobbs’ seven-yearold was able to stay in the mix until three out on ground an increment livelier than ideal. A scorer over the same C&D the first time the cheekpieces were added last winter, the Getaway gelding did enough here to hold off for now any suggestions that the effec-

tiveness of the headgear has worn off completely, and if the evidence of last season is any guide there should be a marked uplift in performance from first run back to second. Able to function perfectly well around galloping tracks as well as sharp, take him to find further openings in mid-ranking staying chases on good to soft or slower.

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ISSUE 181 RACING AHEAD

33

OUT IN THE STICKS dling debut panned out especially suited MISTY WHISKY, whose bumper wins at up to Listed level in 2018-19 were gained under patient rides in races run at rather less funereal paces than this. Unsurprisingly in the circumstances both keen to go faster and somewhat less than fluent on the way round, the Stowaway grey’s class got her to within 3l of the winner at the finish. It’s inconceivable that she won’t produce significantly better efforts in this sphere in the very near future, not least once the Harry Fry operation turns the corner after a poor campaign so far (1-41 at the time of writing), as surely it must. Eligible for all of the EBF affiliated mares’ races over the winter, this five-year-old half-sister to Air Horse One will find openings over at least as far as today’s trip, most likely with give underfoot, when more is in her favour.

2m1f43yds (+156yds) Novices’ Chase (class 3) It will rate a surprise if any of the five runners - all chasing newcomers - in this good little event go the whole season without obliging at least once each over fences, and on the evidence of a 7l second to the potentially very smart Rouge Vif here, Chris Gordon’s BADDESLEY KNIGHT already looks like he’ll prove to be a notch or two above much of what runs in this sphere at the tracks closer to his Hampshire base. It was likelier the effect of either or both a reluctance to settle (not an uncommon trait of his when fresh) and two late mistakes that did for the Doyen gelding’s chances rather than the inadequacy of the trip, considering he possessed the speed to win a goodground 2m novice hurdle at Plumpton as recently as last January. Targeting the Cheltenham bonus races at the Sussex track over the winter must be mightily tempting, and with a little more polish to his jumping one can be his.

SEDGEFIELD, 20 October (Soft) 2m5f28yds 0-105 Handicap Chase (class 4) BLACK KETTLE was never guaranteed to secure his preferred uncontested lead in this event and so it proved, with 34

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Nebuchadnezzar

rival pace influence Brother Scott heading the herd until past halfway. All things considered he stayed well enough on this first step back up to 2m5f since spring 2017 without necessarily suggesting an extended campaign over as far is now needed, and a return to forcing tactics around a galloping 2m-2m1f, ought to see Micky Hammond’s nine-year-old back in an even better light. Currently 7lb lower than when recording a sole career success at Newcastle eighteen months prior (16.5f, heavy), the 10lb claim of the useful stable conditional Emma Smith-Chaston (whose gifts in the saddle are no secret to pointing regulars in Yorkshire and the north) can yet be put to good use, enabling the son of Robin Des Pres to run off a flyweight in deep ground.

2m3f65yds Beginners’ Chase (class 4) It’s been a long time since Maurice Barnes has had a potential top-notch chaser on his hands, and nobody should assume yet that KNOCKOURA will fill that gap based solely on this splitting of rivals rated 134 and 147 (the latter almost certainly underperforming significantly) on his debut over fences. The Farlam handler is certainly due a change of luck following the demise of Jovial Joey at Catterick about a year ago, however, and his Westerner seven-year-old skipped

over the Sedgefied fences like an old professional before the effects of trying to go with the winner throughout caught up with him up the straight.

Anything other than overraced, having sat on the sidelines for two years following an Irish point win in spring 2017, this nephew of the versatile Scotsirish (winner of two Grade 2 chases, as well as hurdles, points and cross-country events) can be taken to find an opening in something similar if managing to avoid the classy southern raiders, with effectiveness on a sound surface helping to keep options open.

2m3f188yds (+9yds) 0-130 Handicap Hurdle (class 3) Probably the last horse anyone would want to run up against at Sedgefield right now is Snookered, and a remorseless all-the-way success here completed an autumn hat-trick at the Durham venue for Brian Ellison’s thriving gelding at the chief expense of 8l second GLORIOUS LADY. The rushing of Keith Dalgleish’s five-year-old into handicaps after just two qualifying runs ought to be taken as a vote of confidence in her ability to prosper in this sphere, however, and although racing on the softest surface she’s encountered under Rules on this occasion it’s worth reiterating that victory in her sole Irish point 18 months previously was gained on yielding ground. RA

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YESTERDAY’S HEROES

the tank was bravest of the brave

I

Graham Buddry remembers the mighty Denman

n 2005 Denman ran for the first time, winning a three mile maiden Point-to-Point at Liscarroll in Ireland by a comfortable 12 lengths.

Former top jockey, Adrian Maguire, his trainer, was then instrumental in a big money deal which next saw the gelding in a novice hurdle at Wincanton seven months later in the famous Barber colours under the care of Paul Nicholls.

Victory here was followed by three more scintillating performances before his unbeaten run came to an end with second place at the 2006 Cheltenham Festival.

As a novice chaser the following season Denman won four races by ever increasing superiority and distance before extending his winning run with a ten length annihilation of the opposition in the Sun Alliance Novice Chase.

His first season out of novice company began in Newbury’s Hennessy under top weight, Denman forging clear four out in impressive fashion to put eleven and 19 lengths between himself and the lightly-weighted placed horses. Such was his overwhelming superiority that comparisons were immediately drawn with Arkle.

The Lexus chase at Leopardstown and the Aon chase proved mere stepping stones as the unbeaten chaser headed to a first Gold Cup where he would face the reigning champion and

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stable companion, Kauto Star. Rightly acclaimed as one of the all-time greats, Kauto Star was left chasing shadows in second place at Cheltenham as Denman cruised to an impressive seven length victory in one of the most devastating performances seen for years.

At the peak of his considerable powers the new champion was then diagnosed with an irregular heartbeat.

This condition, as in humans, can be totally debilitating and heart surgery was required at the Newmarket Equine Centre where the electric receptors inside the heart had to be zapped by a microscopic laser to enable his heart to function more normally.

Eleven months after his last race Denman was ready for his comeback.

Kempton Park framed a race for him although the course itself was far from ideal for such a big, galloping sort and despite some good horses finishing behind him, Denman was a long way second to the easy winner.

The only viable option after this was a defence of his Gold Cup crown and in the circumstances Denman took an honourable second place as his illustrious stable companion Kauto Star regained the title. After his near career ending problems this was still a worthy result.

A fall at Aintree rounded off his truncated season and many racing scribes now wrote him off… a has-been, a once

great horse, a shadow of his former self. Paul Nicholls believed in him though, working tirelessly with his staff to get the former champion back on track and targeted Newbury’s Hennessey Gold Cup of November 2009 as his day of destiny after a break of 240 days. What happened next was possibly the greatest comeback since Lazarus.

Under top weight this powerful chaser, known affectionately as “The Tank” for the way he bulldozed and destroyed everything that stood in his way was back to his imperious best.

In a 19 strong field of good quality the two expected to give Denman the most trouble were the Queen’s horse, Barbers Shop, and his own stable companion, What a Friend. The former was rarely out of the frame over fences, winning his share and would finish third in the King George next time out.

Here the two years younger horse would be receiving a stone and four pounds advantage. What a Friend, younger by three years and with a stone and eight pounds in hand had been beaten only once so far over fences and his next two races would see victories in the Lexus and the Aintree Bowl. Other runners, all receiving huge chunks of weight included previous Hennessy winner, State of Play, recent Grand National winner, Mon Mome and former Cheltenham Gold Cup winner, War of Attrition.

Jockey Sam Thomas looks round after winning the 2008 Cheltenham Gold Cup on Denman

and Denman had Barbers Shop in trouble and Niche Market flat to the boards. What a Friend was still closing approaching three out, then, to roars from the crowd jumped up level at the second last. Denman now came under pressure approaching the final fence.

What a Friend was running around going into it, found a good stride and they landed together for the run to the line, but Denman was unbeatable, the rapturous cheers from the packed stands carrying him 3½ lengths clear by the line.

Come March and a third crack at the Gold Cup saw Kauto Star fall while Denman ploughed on toward the head of affairs. Here Mon Mome stayed on well to take a creditable third place, albeit a full 23 lengths behind the second placed finisher who was once again Denman, giving his all but finding Imperial Commander just too good on the day.

Denman’s final season started off on 27 November 2010 with an attempt to win the Hennessy for a third time. Old foes, Barbers Shop and Niche Market

were again put in their place as Denman tried his hardest to re-write the record books but, like Arkle before him, found age and weight concessions catching up. Two very good horses in Diamond Harry and Burton Port claimed the first two places, both racing from out of the handicap, as were all bar three of the other 17 runners while Denman, giving the best part of two stone to almost everything else took a magnificent third place.

Nicholls thought his charge was ailing slightly in the closing stages so he underwent a wind operation with the trainer confirming he wouldn’t run again until Cheltenham.

The Gold Cup of 2011 will long be revered as a extraordinary race as it was the first time that both Kauto Star and Denman raced against each other at their best. For years racing fans had longed to see Denman and Kauto Star battle it out for ultimate supremacy around Cheltenham and now, at the ages of eleven, the stable companions would do just that.

In their three previous meetings,

▲

Despite top weight and such stellar opposition the public turned out in their droves to see one of their favourite sons with seemingly every other bet placed on him.

For most of the first circuit Denman raced in third place with Mon Mome, Barbers Shop and War of Attrition in close attendance but by the time they reached the water jump Denman had forged into the lead.

Going out on the second circuit Niche Market, allotted more than a two stones pull in the weights, went to the front again, Denman settling nicely just behind, yet before the end of the back straight Denman had regained the lead. Jumping well and going easily, the favourite showed ahead as they started the long turn towards the home straight with five left to jump.

Barbers Shop had moved menacingly up to third while What a Friend was closing strongly. At the cross fence Denman led Barbers Shop, Niche Market and What a Friend, the relentless gallop putting increasing distance away from the other runners. Four out

ISSUE 181 RACING AHEAD

37

YESTERDAY’S HEROES of which Denman held sway 2-1, one or other was not quite right but this time there was the possibility of a race for the generations. Reigning champion, Imperial Commander, was also strongly fancied while the younger brigade were headed by the six-year-old, Long Run, brilliant winner of the King George three months earlier.

In one of the best and most exciting Gold Cups ever run Kauto Star took the lead in front of the stands going out onto the final circuit with the challengers queuing up behind. By the time they raced to the top of the hill the race had whittled down to just four horses; the best four in the land.

The commentator summed it up perfectly as he intoned: “It’s the old guard who show the way, Imperial Commander, Kauto Star and Denman, a who’s who of Gold Cup history.”

Moments later Imperial Commander had dropped away, “Three out and it’s

Denman on the outside of Kauto Star, Long Run is back in third and under pressure…” They turned into the home straight with history beckoning, “Denman and Kauto Star rolling back the years, Long Run a length and a half behind...” This was the race the world wanted to see, two legends going head to head, being willed on by their legions of fans.

Kauto Star just led turning in but Denman was still galloping powerfully, both heads stretching for immortality, locked together as Long Run closed ominously on their outside. Two out and all three were in the air together, Denman just shading Kauto Star and Long Run as the stands erupted. Down to the last and Denman was getting the better of Kauto Star but the five years younger Long Run was full of running and took the lead.

In one of the most emotionally charged races Cheltenham has ever

seen Long Run claimed the Gold Cup while Denman was second for the third consecutive year with Kauto Star in third. Thousands surged to the enclosures reserved for the winner and placed horses, tears of joy and incredulity flowing freely as all three gladiators were cheered to the rafters, a new champion and two wonderful old warriors who gave their all, carried out in glory on their shields.

Denman won five from seven at Newbury, including two Hennessys under top weight and a gallant third place. At Cheltenham he was never out of the first two in eight races, his six visits to the Festival included a Gold Cup and three second places while in four meetings with Kauto Star, all at Prestbury park, Denman finished ahead all bar once.

At Newbury or Cheltenham, there were few better, or braver, than the mighty Denman. RA

YESTERDAY’S HEROES National Hunt Edition

Featuring the best of the jumps articles to have appeared in Racing Ahead magazine over the last six years, including One Man, Wayward Lad, Desert Orchid, Viking Flagship and many, many more.

This hardback book, which includes photos by Bernard Parkin and The Racing Post is available through Waterstones and other bookshops or as an ebook.

38

RACING AHEAD ISSUE 181

NEWMARKET REPORT

Jumping for joy at HQ

David Youngman is looking forward to the winter season

W

ITH the turf Flat season now coming to an end everything will be going into jumps mode from now on and hopefully our trainers like Amy Murphy and Lucy Wadham will saddle a few winners and keep the flag flying for our HQ yards plus a few winners on the all weather for our other handlers.

AMY Murphy has her jumpers in strong work now and stable star KALASHNIKOV is doing very well at Southgate stables on the Hamilton Road. The son of Kalinisi looks set for a good season and hopefully will end up in the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival come March.

Stablemate MERCIAN PRINCE has recently had a wind operation to tweak his breathing, he is about a month off his return but could be a nice type this season.

THE October Tattersalls sales saw some very nice yearlings and Sheikh Mohammed purchased some interesting types that will be going into training when they have been prepared at the Darley pre- training yards.

One in particular is a Frankel halfbrother to Golden Horn. This impressive looking colt cost 3.1 million guineas and will soon be sent into training at Warren Place.

All the Godolphin yearlings will be trained out of this famous yard under the guidance of Charlie Appleby and there should be some lovely two-yearolds there for Godolphin for next term.

Dave on the Rowley Mile

OUR last fixture here at Newmarket is on November 1-2. As you see from the photo I recently walked the Rowley Mile course, I must say what a great job the staff have done as it is in excellent condition. Roll on April when we are back racing here again for the Craven meeting. Godolphin and John Gosden have a lot of unraced juveniles to get out on the all-weather tracks before the end of the year so you will see some nice types coming out.

IT has been wonderful for us all here at Newmarket to see young Cieren Fallon become champion apprentice under the guidance of William and Mo Haggas and their team at Somerville Lodge. Cieren is to have a holiday then go off to New York for three months to winter with trainer Christophe Clement there.

He is sure to learn a lot and broaden his knowledge. William Haggas is anxious to see Cieren keep his 3lb claim for next season and the young rider looks set for a great 2020.

EVERYONE here at HQ is delighted to hear ENABLE is to stay in training as a six-year-old in 2020 – none more so than Frankie Dettori. Her gallant effort in the Arc in Paris was highly memorable as she showed her courage as the very soft ground was all against her, blunting her finishing speed. Hopefully, she will train on and try again next October. I am concerned as she will be a six-year-old by then and as Noel Murless always told us lads in my days with him, they are past their best by then as they have peaked their performance at four. Let’s hope she is the exception to that rule. RA ISSUE 181 RACING AHEAD

39

TALES FROM THE BETTING RING

heart attacks and crashing falls at Exeter Simon Nott spends time in the West Country

Exeter October 10th There was an excellent crowd for the season opener at Exeter. Twelve lined up for the Join Racing TV Now Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle. Dr Richard Newland’s Higgs was a very warm order opening around 6/5, a fair drop from last night’s best priced 4/1.

Sadly, for the punters that got the fancy prices, or were involved with the gamble on the jolly, their fancy only managed third behind 12/1 chance Back On The Lash under a very determined Patrick Cowley.

I saw a punter have £350 in cash on the 4/7 favourite Hang In There for the Watch On RacingTV Novices’ Hurdle.

As soon as he was laid, he was on his mobile, Richard Watson took the bet and commented, “If he’s arbing, good luck to him, he’s not going to get fat on it”.

Let’s hope for his sake he did arb it because bad luck was just around the corner, well at the first to be accurate.

Hang In There was knocked on landing

by The Wire Flyer, the impact of which catapulted the jolly’s jockey Adam Wedge out of the saddle. The jockey did his level best to hold on to the aptly named favourite but was always fighting a losing battle.

The race eventually went to Fergal O’Brien’s 5/1 chance Thegallantway.

Jockey Paddy Brennan did well to win given that the gelding attempted to run out following a loose horse on the first circuit and jumped somewhat 40

RACING AHEAD ISSUE 181

erratically over the last few hurdles.

The next heat was a tricky looking race on paper but proved to be ultimately more challenging for the combatants. Only five of the ten that went to post completed the course with three horses falling two out including the jolly Keep Moving when looking to have every chance.

Victory eventually went to Tim Vaughan’s 6/1 chance Cap St Vincent under Alan Johns who kept the combination intact in what was a calamitous race with thankfully all fallers returning safely to stables. News filtered through that popular racecourse bookie Peter Houghton was taken to hospital after reporting to the racecourse medical centre feeling under the weather.

The bookmakers’ mushes, that’s umbrellas in plain English, had been up

Ricky Rixon in his wet weather gear

for a while as is often prudent at Exeter. They were needed by the start of betting to Visit racingtv.com Novices’ Handicap Hurdle with drizzle prevailing. Dr Richard Newland’s Somethingaboutangela opened the 6/5 favourite, a price which the punters appeared happy to take, despite the gamble coming unstuck in the opener.

“The bookies have never enjoyed such results at Exeter” chortled the Betting Ring manager as Kevin Bishop’s Rosserk Abbey caused a minor shock winning at 14/1. The jolly was left labouring back in a poor fourth after being hampered badly on the home turn, the BRM might have been slightly exaggerating but the bookies weren’t complaining.

Down in the ring even ‘Tall Boy’ Watson was happy, until he saw me, he quipped, “Ere, anyone that reads your article in Racing Ahead will think I’m a miserable git”. With that his right-hand man Steve Copplestone burst out laughing, take from that as you will.

Armaloft Alex on the Ladbrokes joint pointed out that none of the winning owners had been present today so it might be a system for the rest of the meeting – look for a lonely-looking jockey and trainer in the parade ring.

It’s a thought, maybe owners should declare their presence.

Chance It trained by Johnny Farrelly and ridden by one of the top Wessex area point to point riders of last

Exeter bookies

opened 11/10 Colin Tizzard’s Padleyourowncanoe, 5/2 each of two Monbeg Theatre and Rococo River and 20/1 Point N Shoot.

Some bookmakers, including ‘cheerful’ Tall Boy Watson decided to snap the elastic around the readies and leave though most stayed.

Going back to Peter Houghton, he later reported that he’d actually suffered a heart attack which resulted in stents being inserted to sort him out.

He’s hoping to be in action on course sooner rather than later, let’s hope he takes it easy before rushing back, he’s one of the good guys.

The perils of Jump racing were further highlighted when Lizzie Kelly took a crashing fall on Rocco River at the 9th. The horse took off afterwards apparently uninjured, but Lizzie was being attended to by the first aid teams as the remainder of the field fought out the finish. The jolly, backed into Evens, won for beleaguered favourite backers.

Wincanton October 17 Today was the official ‘season ‘opener’ at Wincanton and, as with Exeter, extremely well supported by racego-

ers, trainers and bookmakers alike with a real buzz about the course.

The betting ring was heaving with punters for the opening Download The Star Sports App Now! Maiden Hurdle.

Bookmakers were busy but not inundated with lumps of cash.

The biggest bet I heard of was from Martyn of Leicester in pick number one who reported a bet of £880 to £800 Olly Murphy’s Nickolson. The money was well-placed, the even money favourite won very nicely under Richard Johnson.

Betting on the second division revolved around Paul Nicholls’ hot favourite Ecco. Martyn of Leicester was the man that took the biggest bet I heard of, this time £450 – £1,500 the jolly. After it won with the ease expected of a, by that point, 1/4 favourite, the bookmaker was quite stoical and quipped, “It’s only units”. I pointed out that the units were adding up to which he replied he’s happy to see that there is still money in the ring despite not being able to keep it. With that the ‘money without work’ cry went up and he set out trying to get some back.

Down the line and behind the magnet for big money that seemed

▲

season, Liam Harrison, landed a bit of a gamble in the Timeform Premium Ratings Available At racingtv.com Handicap Hurdle. The winner was backed from 10/1 into 6/1.

I dashed back down into the ring expecting to see a lot of faces with smiles wiped off them, but none of it.

To a man they declared the winner a winner in their books. Oh, and of course, the owners were present, that’s that system out of the window Armalot.

The drizzle was light but persistent enough to prompt Ricky Rixon working for West End Racing to get his best wet-weather clobber on.

Ricky had gotten it right, the weather was what could be described as ‘proper miserable’ by the time of the 5.05pm. Searching and Dan Gun opened at 9/4 each of two in early betting. It was the latter the punters latched onto, supporting it into 15/8 while the former drifted to 11/4. They got it wrong again though, Searching bolted up from Dan Gun. The bookies had little chance but still got the favourite beaten.

Just four went to post for the concluding Beginners’ Chase. The bookies

ISSUE 181 RACING AHEAD

41

TALES FROM THE BETTING RING to be Martyn’s hod, other bookmakers weren’t telling many stories of big bets.

Dan Skelton saddled the favourite, though it was uneasy, drifting from 9/4 to 11/4. Another that took a walk in the betting on-course was Colin Tizzard’s Duc Kauto which drifted from 3/1 to 9/2. It didn’t stop the gelding winning though, a nice double on the card for Harry Cobden who steered Ecco to victory in the previous race.

The Tribute To Marcus Trescothick Handicap Hurdle was a competitive betting affair, in which Tom Lacey’s Sebastopol was sent off 3/1 favourite and compounded the bookies’ misery by obliging under Nico De Boinville.

There was drama in the race when Philip Hobbs’ Flying Tiger appeared to clip hoofs and stumbled, unshipping Richard Johnson. Hopefully not too badly injured but it was enough for him to give up his last two rides of the day. His ride on Philip Hobbs’ Barbrook Star going to Sean Houlihan in the Trethowans Solicitors Handicap Chase Down in the betting ring Jo Williams of the Ivor Perry firm reported that it was a very ‘flat’ betting heat, adding the the strong mover on ‘the machine’ was Tom George’s charge Forgot To Ask while the original favourite Flying

Verse was very weak and hard to lay.

Three out, Colin Tizzard’s Bramble Brook looked all over the winner. One shrewd judge piped it, he won’t win, he always finds a way of not winning, I don’t think he likes it’. The man wasn’t playing in-running but maybe he should have, the Jonjo O’Neill trained Terry The Fish flipped over the last to win going away at a bookie-saving 16/1 under Richie McLernon with the Bramble Brook appearing content to fill runner-up spot with the weak, now joint-favourite, Flying Verse back in third.

The starsports.bet Handicap Hurdle was another competitive heat, Colin Tizzard’s Little Vern was proving popular down in the ring along with Rosemary Russet, sent off the 9/2f.

Those that backed the latter each-way got most of their money back when the mare filled fourth spot but Little Vern backers weren’t so fortunate finishing out of the frame. At the business end of the race Jeremy Scott’s 10/1 shot Demon Fou led the way home under Matt Griffiths in front of Philip Hobbs’ 7/1 chance Dark Episode. The bookmakers had another Paul Nicholls short one to get stuck into in the penultimate with Enrilo who opened at 4/7. Once again a punter

waded in to Martyn of Leicester, with £800 – £1,400 which ultimately copped, the jolly winning by four and a half lengths under Harry Cobden. The punter got his money’s worth though, the favourite looked in trouble turning for home touching 2/1 in-running before knuckling down to the task in hand. A double for Paul Nicholls and trebles for jockey and the lumping-on punter. Martyn of Leicester however, not do quite so well.

The concluding First For Industry Jobs Visit starrecruitment.bet Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Chase was competitive, the bookies had very little chance of getting all their dough back on the day. It appeared some of the crowd had started to head home early despite an excellent race in prospect.

The market opened tight with Our Uncle Pat priced at 4/1 and The Boola Bee 9/2. At one point during the race it did look as if The Boola Bee was going to come from an impossible position to win.

Ultimately it proved to be just too much for the mare who finished a couple of lengths second to the aptly named 13/2 winner Love The Leader under promising young Luca Morgan.

Win or lose it was nice to be back at Wincanton and Exeter. RA

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RACING AHEAD ISSUE 181

OPTIMUM RACING

electric eric!

The Optimum Racing syndicate enoy a day out at Hereford

O

wning a racehorse can be an exhilarating experience, it can also put a crater sized hole in your pocket, with the average cost being £16,500 per year.

Being part of a well run syndicate, however, can bring the full ownership experience at a fraction of the price.

As members of the optimumracing.co.uk syndicate waited for the jockeys to enter the parade ring for the Visit Sri Lanka Handicap Hurdle at Hereford on a lovely October afternoon, we chatted about the chances of our runner Eric the Third, who looked splendid in the paddock. We concluded that a top four finish would be more than acceptable in such a competitive race for the grade.

We had earlier rubbed shoulders with some of the country’s leading trainers in the Owners and Trainers bar. There are not many sports where the biggest players are so accessible. Several years ago,

at Cartmel I remarked on this to the late “Ginger” McCain, of Red Rum fame, telling him what a thrill it was to be able to chat to him as he prepared his runner in the saddling box next to ours. He was a real gentleman and so humble too.

As the tapes went up for the opening race at Hereford, Eric the Third, under jockey Alan Johns, was soon out in front and jumping for fun. The excitement levels rose and the heart started beating that little bit quicker as a victory looked a distinct possibility with half a mile to run.

Unfortunately, Eric was headed two out but stayed on to finish a gallant fourth, rewarding clients who were advised to back him each way with firms paying four places.

The syndicate has enjoyed plenty of success since sending out our first runner City Affair at Bangor in August 2007, and many an exciting day at the races. The 18 horses we have watched run in the

colours of Optimum Racing have won 27 races between them and given members the thrill of having a runner at the Cheltenham Festival, as well as visiting the winner’s enclosure at Aintree.

A 5% share in one of our horses costs just £23 per week all-inclusive and enables you to enjoy all the trappings of being an owner without the financial headache associated with owning a majestic thoroughbred.

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For details speak to Andrew Lowrie on 01446 722463 I would like to dedicate this article to my father who sadly passed away in September. He enjoyed nothing more than a day at the races. RA optimumracing.co.uk

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DON’T MISS OUT CALL 01446 722463 Further information www.optimumracing.co.uk.

Follow us on Twitter @optimum_racing ISSUE 181 RACING AHEAD

43

CLEEVE RACING

do you need our tipping service?

By Nick McKenna - managing partner at cleeveracing.com

WHY use a tipping service? It’s a good question… if you are a once a week TV punter only risking a fiver a week, then my honest answer is you don’t need one as you are punting for fun and your maximum downside is around £20 a month. However, if you are betting a fiver once a day, even though it might feel like you’re playing you are actually risking around £150 a month or £1,800 a year, so it is reasonable to at least ask yourself the question.

The truth lies in the numbers, and when you break it down it becomes self-evident that it is something every punter should at the very least consider.

Let’s assume you have researched the tipping service ‘Winnerswinnerswinners*’ and reached the conclusion that it is both professional and trustworthy, it is priced at a standard £30 a month or discounted to £240 a year so you join them for a year in order to... a) lock in the best price b) give them a reasonable time to prove their merits.

In joining them you are adding £240, or 13% to your annual racing investment of £1,800, the fundamental question you have asked yourself is…

‘Does my investment in a team of form analysts who have proven knowledge and deep experience of the sport, with access to specialist tools, who are effectively working full-time on my behalf justify an investment of an extra 13% on my annual punting spend?’

For the average punter the answer almost certainly has to be… YES IT DOES! Why? You use a dentist when you have toothache, you go to a doctor when you are not feeling well, you hire a builder if you want an extension… in short, we use specialists all the time and wouldn’t dream of doing that kind of 44

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work ourselves. We insist on using an expert, and we expect to have to pay them.

So why do the majority of punters tend to look down their noses at tipping services and lump them all into the ‘dodgy’ category, and think that they can do a better job themselves?

Form analysis is a highly technical and data driven process (handicapping, ratings, time figures, collateral form), executed in the context of variable factors (current form, course characteristics, draw, stable form, shape of the race).

It takes a lot of time and effort to do proper race analysis… time that few punters have available, and work that they are not really equipped with either the specialist knowledge or access to the appropriate tools.

Many punters look at a race in their daily newspaper and see -111 next to a favourite’s name. They surmise that it’s got a great chance, but if they looked a little deeper they might see that he’s won his last 3 races at Epsom over 5F on firm ground in Class 3’s from handicap marks in the 80’s… but today’s race is a class 2 at Ascot over 6F on good to soft and he’s running off 96.

So, he is up in class, up in trip, unproven on the ground and running from a handicap mark he has never won from. Now do you think he has a favorite’s chance?

Similarly, would you back a 6-4 chance that should be a 1-2 shot? Do you think it’s ‘too short’, or do you prefer an 8-1 chance (without knowing that it's actually unsuited by the going plus the stable is 0-20 in the last 30 days). It would really be more accurately priced around the 16-1 mark. Value, or the lack of it can come in many different

guises! Maybe you follow a particular jockey or trainer…

Who’s your favourite jockey? (2019 Stats to £1 level stakes) • Ryan Moore – minus £143.39 • Franny Norton – minus £213.93 • Luke Morris – minus £300.13 • Tom Marquand – + £81.95 Who’s your favourite trainer? (12 Month Stats to £1 level stakes) • Mark Johnston – minus £323.65 • Richard Fahey – minus £258.40 • Richard Hannon – minus £337.11 • John Holt (who?) – + £90.00 Time, knowledge, experience, an expert team view that supports informed debate, specialist tools… a good tipping service is an invaluable asset for punters, remember that ‘Winnerswinnerswinners’ only needs to be 13% better than you to be worth it… the odds are that they are probably at least 1000% (x10) better than you.

Most punters don’t keep a record of their betting so have no idea what it is costing them, winners tend to stick in the mind longer than losers which further skews the perception. I would guess that an armchair punter, especially one with Racing TV who is a ‘pretty decent judge’ with both the courage and the cash to back his judgement, will turnover at least £5,000 a year. Given those numbers ‘Winnerswinnerswinners’ is adding a measly 4% to their annual punting bill. *I need to stress that Winnerswinnerswinners are a fictitious tipping service.

Next month we will look at possibly the most important factor of using a tipping service ‘ finding one that matches my personal punting style’. RA

ALASTAIR RALPH STABLE TOUR

I

t was not too long ago that Alastair Ralph was learning his trade off some legends of the game, but after a few seasons of holding his own licence, he has built himself a solid base from which to build and hopefully challenge such legends for years to come.

Stints with Paul Nicholls, Henry Daly and Richard Newland proved valuable experiences and provided Ralph with a wealth of knowledge.

A breakthrough year two seasons back meant his stock rose. Plans have since been in place to improve facilities along with the quality of horses. Although this may seem a slow building process, from having two horses in training with him, I can assure readers this is a yard firmly on the up with ambitions to improve further in time.

The addition of Grand National winning jockey Liam Treadwell as assistant trainer provides Alastair with another valuable voice. Add Treadwell to the current list of jockeys attached to the stable (L Edwards, A Edwards, A Tinkler and R Johnson) and it makes for quite a competitive atmosphere.

I’m sure that will bring nothing but success for this yard which continues to grow and develop.

How Alastair rates his horses: Billingsley Goes novice chasing this time. He has come in better than ever and looks really well. He will head down the novice handicap chase route and is one to look forward to.

Champagne Mist Pleased he got his head in front recently as he is a talented horse. On a short break at present but will go chasing when he comes back.

Comber Mill Love soft/heavy ground so we will pick and choose where he races this year. Try and find a good race for him in the right conditions.

Damut I’m Out Had a good summer but is back in now and is a good fun horse who fences and hurdles well. Will be out soon.

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learning from the legends Ben Morgan speaks to a trainer who is ready to go places

Green Etoile A fun horse who will be running around courses like Ludlow for his local owners.

Gustave Mahler On a bit of a break at the moment after encountering a few issues. He will be back though.

Kabrit Thought he would run better than he did at Ludlow recently. Will appreciate a winter break and is a nice horse going forward.

Mix Of Clover He has been unlucky but we will hopefully find an opportunity for him. I hope he will be winning soon.

Master Sunrise Had another good summer but is due to go on his holidays soon.

Our Rockstar Quite highly handicapped at the moment but she should be good to go next Spring and we hope for more success with her.

Queen’s Soldier Should be a good juvenile hurdler as he was recommended to me. Schools well and once we get going, we should have plenty of fun with him.

Tennewrow Hopefully can win a low grade mares event. Has done nothing wrong in a few starts for me. Bumped into one of my own when I took her to Plumpton, so poor planning on my part. She will be better over fences.

White Turf Bought from the Flat after being recommended. A nice horse going forward who will be better in handicaps and over a longer trip.

Your Band An exciting horse who has done nothing wrong this summer. Got beat by the well regarded Pacify first time, beat a well regarded one second time and won nicely third time. Will want a step up in trip in time. On a small break at the moment but will be bought back in the new year with one of the festivals in mind.

Evenstevens Owned by a local syndicate and should be a fun horse once entering handicap company.

Amanofhisword Ran once last year and bumped into a nice one first time out. Has done well over the summer and will start back in a bumper. I like him a lot.

Getaway Totherock Bought her in the summer after wining three point to points in Ireland. She will go down the Mares Novice hurdle route and all being well will end up at one of the festivals as well. She has a nice attitude and I like her a lot.

Move Above Ran well in novices last year and appreciated a break through the summer. Will go novice handicap chasing and I’m sure he will do well as chasing has always been his game.

Butler’s Brief Will be out soon in a bumper. He is a very nice horse and is certainly one to look forward to.

Mick Mona She will be a good mare once she learns to settle. One of the better work horses we have who just needs to learn her job.

Encounter A Giant Another nice young horse in the yard who has come from the pointing field.

Should have plenty to look forward to with him.

Three-year-olds We have a lovely batch of three-yearolds at the moment. Grooveur and Risk D’Argent are coming along nicely but we also have an unnamed Dunaden who is moving nicely along with an unnamed Shirocco, who is showing up very well at this early stage. RA

Alastair Ralph and syndicate member Hannah

ISSUE 181 RACING AHEAD

47

RACING METHODS - HURDLES

Make hay over the hurdles Our stats analysis turns to the winter game with a look at favourites over timber

W

ITH the jumps season getting into gear, we take a look at ways of making money following favourites over hurdles this month.

Market leaders do slightly better in the winter game than the Flat and there are plenty of profitable angles to concentrate on.

All the stats on these pages go back to the start of 2017 and are for hurdles races only in the UK. There are plenty of trainer and jockey combinations that have made profits when teaming up with favourites. We’ll concentrate on those with the highest strike-rate: Jamie Snowden and Gavin Sheehan: 23 wins from 30 runners (77%) for a profit of £13 to SP. Richard Johnson and Gordon Elliott: 31 wins from 43 runners (72%) for a profit of £21 to SP. Gavin Sheehan and Harry Whittington: 10 wins from 14 runners (71%) for a profit of £6 to SP. Daryl Jacob and Nigel Twiston-Davies: 8 wins from 12 runners (67%) for a profit of £5 to SP. Nico De Boinville and Ben Pauling: 7 wins from 11 runners (64%) for a profit of £11 to SP. Barry Geraghty and Nicky Henderson: 22 wins from 35 runners (63%) for a profit of £1 to SP. Daryl Jacob and Nicky Henderson: 19 wins from 32 runners (59%) for a profit of £10 to SP. M Griffiths and Jeremy Scott: 12 wins from 21 runners (57%) for a profit of £14 to SP. C Gethings and Stuart Edmunds: 14 wins from 26 runners (54%) for a profit of £9 to SP. The individual profits may be modest but they add up to a healthy return on investment and it’s hard not to better SP these days. You

48

RACING AHEAD ISSUE 181

POSITION IN BETTING Bets 6034 1 5862 2 5673 3 5613 4 5327 5 4953 6 4213 7 3488 8 2742 9 2100 10 1541 11 1018 12 722 13 454 14 287 15

£1 bet -382.06 -858.53 -844.65 -1339.67 -1681.5 -1847 -1528.5 -1705 -1342 -1293 -918 -655 -359 -250 -172

Places 3891 3026 2184 1635 1242 891 614 415 265 165 95 68 51 30 19

Place% 64% 52% 38% 29% 23% 18% 15% 12% 10% 8% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7%

ANALYSIS OF HURDLES FAVOURITES 30% 1024 3469 Handicap 48% 1200 2484 Non-Handicap 45% 297 657 Maiden 47% 836 1762 Novices

-199.37 -147.94 -36% -84.87

1994 1869 497 1291

57% 75% 76% 73%

CLASS OF RACE 276 Class 1 325 Class 2 865 Class 3 3189 Class 4 1298 Class 5

-5.34 -34.06 -21.29 -104.37 -182.25

169 174 518 2196 806

61% 54% 60% 69% 62%

Wins 2233 1199 781 492 335 213 150 88 61 32 20 13 10 4 2

99 91 301 1326 407

Win% 37% 20% 14% 9% 6% 4% 4% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

36% 28% 35% 42% 31%

BY DISTANCE

13.37 75 -40.26 1279 -145.71 905 -43.9 522 -88.38 304 -19.74 211 20.59 136 -20.29 114 4.18 64 -22.11 34 4.37 32 3.41 20 -10.94 46 3.57 50 -3.23 19

74% 67% 66% 64% 59% 63% 64% 67% 68% 52% 70% 69% 57% 54% 56%

PROFITABLE JOCKEYS ON FAVOURITES OBrien, T J 106 49 46% 19.84 72 Jacob, Daryl 128 62 48% 19.3 91 Sheehan, Gavin 87 53 61% 19.28 63 Scholfield, Nick 43 19 44% 16.93 30 Murtagh, Mr L A 16 9 56% 13.55 11 Griffiths, Mr M 22 12 55% 12.64 16 Stock, Mr H 16 8 50% 12.51 13 Irving, Mr D 12 7 58% 10.6 8 Boinville, Mr N de 148 68 46% 10.38 101 Sansom, Mr D 19 9 47% 9 13 Nichol, Craig 36 18 50% 8.28 23 Price, Mr C 15 7 47% 8.11 8 Russell, D N 18 9 50% 7.81 14 Nicol, Mr Adam 18 9 50% 7.34 11 Quinlan, Sean 31 14 45% 6.87 21 Brace, Connor 29 11 38% 6.79 21 Patrick, Mr Richard 25 9 36% 6.38 13 Burke, Mr J J 24 9 38% 5.4 16 Tissier, Maxime 12 6 50% 5.16 6 Chapman, Mr R 45 18 40% 5.05 26 Williams, Miss Isabel 10 5 50% 4.96 8 Colliver, J 17 8 47% 4.73 13 McCain, Miss A 13 5 38% 4.48 10 George, Mr N 11 5 45% 4.43 8 Gethings, Mr C 44 19 43% 4.24 32 Dingle, Mr Rex 29 12 41% 4.09 15 Bass, Mr D R 69 30 43% 3.73 43 Austin, Mr E 17 6 35% 3.63 8 Dixon, Jason 10 5 50% 3.59 7 Garritty, Billy 16 7 44% 3.43 10 Geraghty, B J 81 42 52% 3.12 59 Sherwood, Mr J 14 4 29% 3 9 Aspell, Leighton 60 26 43% 2.49 40 Dunne, R T 34 12 35% 2.21 23 Johns, Mr A 36 16 44% 1.97 23 Turner, Mr Ross 15 7 47% 1.84 11 Andrews, Miss B 46 18 39% 1.48 28 Cawley, A P 14 5 36% 1.25 9 Fuller, Miss P 13 5 38% 1.1 8 Power, R M 13 5 38% 0.95 9 Hiskett, Mr D 10 3 30% 0.75 6 Edgar, Mr K 17 5 29% 0.66 11 Tinkler, Andrew 15 5 33% 0.18 11

PROFITABLE TRAINERS WITH FAVOURITES Scott, J 40 22 55% 26.02 27 Elliott, Gordon 78 45 58% 22.59 61 Ralph, Alastair 15 9 60% 16.71 12 Lavelle, Miss E C 47 19 40% 16.19 30 Snowden, Jamie 54 33 61% 15.75 41 Keighley, M 28 12 43% 14.75 22 Mullins, J W 35 15 43% 11 24 Sayer, Mrs Dianne 13 7 54% 8.63 11 Dobbin, Mrs R 20 9 45% 7.52 12 Oliver, Henry 33 14 42% 6.42 20 Wadham, Mrs L 24 10 42% 6.16 14 Bailey, Mrs Caroline 17 7 41% 5.41 13 Crawford, S R B 12 6 50% 5 8 Bailey, K C 67 30 45% 4.72 44 Davidson, Tristan 13 6 46% 4.57 11 Robson, Miss P 10 5 50% 4.5 8 Vaughan, Tim 64 28 44% 4.18 43

68% 78% 80% 64% 76% 79% 69% 85% 60% 61% 58% 76% 67% 66% 85% 80% 67%

McPherson, Graeme 28 Ewart, J P L 24 Whittington, H 45 Williams, Evan 80 McConnell, John C 10 Hammond, Micky 38 Pauling, Ben 64 Symonds, Tom 16 Lacey, T 59 Candlish, Jennie 26 Farrelly, Johnny 40 Alexander, N W 18 Llewellyn, B J 11 Henderson, P 15 Longsdon, C E 37 Gordon, C 52 Twiston-Davies, N 115

1m7½f 2m 2m½f 2m1f 2m1½f 2m2f 2m2½f 2m3f 2m3½f 2m4f 2m4½f 2m5f 2m5½f 2m6f 2m6½f 2m7f 2m7½f 3m 3m½f 3m1f 3m1½f 3m2f 3m2½f 3m3f

Bets Wins Win% 288 109 38% 902 353 39% 646 255 39% 375 137 37% 131 45 34% 70 24 34% 79 26 33% 193 83 43% 450 187 42% 427 175 41% 435 162 37% 273 106 39% 278 102 37% 186 65 35% 65 23 35% 127 37 29% 211 70 33% 303 106 35% 182 54 30% 90 26 29% 78 26 33% 86 29 34% 35 10 29% 40 11 28%

FAVOURITES BY FINISHING POSITION IN LAST RACE FNo Run 101 52 51% First 1902 790 42% Second 1374 521 38% Third 816 282 35% Fourth 513 152 30% Fifth 336 109 32% Sixth 214 83 39% Seventh 171 55 32% Eighth 94 32 34% Ninth 65 15 23% Tenth 46 19 41% Eleventh 29 11 38% Fell 81 26 32% Pulled Up 92 32 35% Unseated Rider 34 11 32%

£1 bet Places Place% -29.43 187 65% -58.73 616 68% -50 434 67% -64.77 251 67% -20.59 85 65% -19.04 50 71% -12.27 49 62% 1.31 129 67% 10.2 308 68% 0.1 282 66% -16.16 283 65% 5.69 185 68% -12.36 184 66% -13.92 115 62% -2.46 38 58% -31.64 74 58% -10.07 128 61% -1.74 180 59% -14.67 105 58% -1.7 48 53% -4.26 43 55% 2.28 51 59% -0.63 15 43% -7.83 20 50%

10 9 23 30 7 15 25 8 22 10 15 7 3 5 13 19 45

36% 38% 51% 38% 70% 39% 39% 50% 37% 38% 38% 39% 27% 33% 35% 37% 39%

4.14 4.11 3.47 3.36 3.25 3.17 2.96 2.61 2.6 2.47 2.28 1.92 1.63 1.5 1.34 1.3 0.87

18 16 32 54 9 26 39 14 41 18 28 12 7 13 22 31 74

68% 71% 72% 70% 69% 73% 81% 67% 68% 68% 64% 53% 78% 61% 68% 72% 52% 67% 50% 58% 80% 76% 77% 73% 73% 52% 62% 47% 70% 63% 73% 64% 67% 68% 64% 73% 61% 64% 62% 69% 60% 65% 73%

64% 67% 71% 68% 90% 68% 61% 88% 69% 69% 70% 67% 64% 87% 59% 60% 64%

ISSUE 181 RACING AHEAD

49

SPEED FIGURES Name

WALDGEIST PINATUBO MILITARY MARCH AL SUHAIL WICHITA ROYAL DORNOCH MILLISLE EARTHLIGHT ENABLE SOTTSASS KAMEKO GOLDEN HORDE JAPAN ARIZONA IBERIA KEW GARDENS RAFFLE PRIZE STRADIVARIUS TROPBEAU SUMMER SANDS KING NEPTUNE GLASS SLIPPERS WICHITA KING OF CHANGE ADDEYBB BENBATL YEAR OF THE TIGER THREAT LORD NORTH ROYAL LINE STAR CATCHER DAAHYEH SOUND OF CANNONS LOPE Y FERNANDEZ TECHNICIAN DONJUAN TRIUMPHANT MEKONG DELPHINIA THE REVENANT MAGICAL STYLISTIQUE TANGO LIVING IN THE PAST MORDIN INTISAAB MOONLIGHT SPIRIT MAGICAL MAX VEGA SUN MAIDEN FLEETING FOX TAL DONTASKMEAGAIN CLOAK OF SPIRITS UNDER THE STARS MUMS TIPPLE BERINGER DAKOTA GOLD KYNREN DUBAI SOUQ ROPEY GUEST YEAR OF THE TIGER STRATUM NURSE BARBARA 50

RACING AHEAD ISSUE 181

Date

06/10/2019 12/10/2019 12/10/2019 12/10/2019 26/09/2019 28/09/2019 28/09/2019 28/09/2019 06/10/2019 06/10/2019 28/09/2019 28/09/2019 06/10/2019 12/10/2019 28/09/2019 19/10/2019 28/09/2019 19/10/2019 28/09/2019 28/09/2019 28/09/2019 06/10/2019 12/10/2019 19/10/2019 19/10/2019 27/09/2019 28/09/2019 28/09/2019 28/09/2019 19/10/2019 19/10/2019 27/09/2019 28/09/2019 28/09/2019 05/10/2019 19/10/2019 19/10/2019 19/10/2019 19/10/2019 19/10/2019 27/09/2019 28/09/2019 28/09/2019 28/09/2019 05/10/2019 05/10/2019 06/10/2019 12/10/2019 19/10/2019 19/10/2019 19/10/2019 24/09/2019 27/09/2019 27/09/2019 28/09/2019 28/09/2019 05/10/2019 05/10/2019 09/10/2019 12/10/2019 12/10/2019 12/10/2019 28/09/2019

Course

Distance

Going

Class

Age

Placed

Btn/won by

SF

LONG NEWM NEWM NEWM NEWM NEWM NEWM NEWM LONG LONG NEWM NEWM LONG NEWM NEWM ASCO NEWM ASCO NEWM NEWM NEWM LONG NEWM ASCO ASCO NEWM NEWM NEWM NEWM ASCO ASCO NEWM NEWM NEWM LONG ASCO ASCO ASCO ASCO ASCO NEWM NEWM NEWM NEWM WOLV LONG LONG NEWM ASCO ASCO ASCO BEVE NEWM NEWM NEWM NEWM ASCO ASCO NOTT NEWM NEWM NEWM NEWM

11.9 7 8 8 7 8 6 6 11.9 11.9 8 6 11.9 7 8 15.6 6 15.6 6 6 6 5 7 8 10 8 8 6 9 15.6 11.6 7 8 6 14.9 6 15.6 11.6 8 10 7 6 6 9 6.1 14.9 11.9 10 11.6 11.6 10 7.4 7 7 6 9 5 7 10.2 8 7 18 6

S S S S G GF GF GF S S GF GF S S GF GS GF GS GF GF GF S S H GS G GF GF GF GS S G GF GF S H GS S H GS G GF GF GF ST S S S S S GS S G G GF GF S S S S S S GF

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 1

5 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 5 3 2 2 3 2 2 4 2 5 2 2 2 3 2 3 5 5 2 2 3 5 3 2 2 2 3 6 4 3 4 4 2 2 2 5 8 3 4 2 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 4 5 5 2 2 2 6 2

1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 2 2 4 2 3 1 2 2 3 3 4 1 3 1 2 1 4 5 1 3 1 1 5 6 1 1 4 2 2 1 2 4 5 4 3 2 5 1 3 4 4 1 3 4 7 2 1 1 1 3 4 1 6

-1.75 -2 -0.5 0.5 -7 -0.3 -1.75 -0.3 1.75 3.5 0.3 0.3 4 2 1.8 0 1.75 0 2.25 2.05 2.55 -3 4.75 -1.25 0.75 -5 4.05 3.3 -0.75 5 -0.07 -0.5 5.05 3.37 -0.75 -1 6.25 0.07 1.25 -0.75 0.5 4.25 4.32 5.5 3.25 0.75 10 -3 1.07 1.37 3.15 -2.5 0.57 0.87 4.62 0.75 -1.5 -0.5 -6 7.5 6.75 -0.5 5.07

116 114 113 112 111 111 111 111 111 111 110 110 110 110 109 109 108 108 107 107 106 106 106 106 106 105 105 105 105 105 105 104 104 104 104 104 104 104 104 104 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 103 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 102 101

Name

DARK LADY SEPARATE ISKANDERHON SOFT LIGHT MOLATHAM BRANDO WITHHOLD SAFE VOYAGE ETOILE KINROSS EL ASTRONAUTE INVINCIBLE ARMY QUADRILATERAL EMISSARY CAPRI KLASSIQUE ANTONIA DE VEGA DEIRDRE LIGHT ANGEL PERSUASION DARK VISION CELESTIAL FORCE ESCOBAR ASHRUN POWERFUL BREEZE MONARCH OF EGYPT GOOD BIRTHDAY WALK ON WALTER

Date

28/09/2019 28/09/2019 05/10/2019 06/10/2019 12/10/2019 19/10/2019 19/10/2019 19/10/2019 28/09/2019 05/10/2019 06/10/2019 06/10/2019 11/10/2019 12/10/2019 19/10/2019 19/10/2019 19/10/2019 19/10/2019 26/09/2019 26/09/2019 28/09/2019 02/10/2019 05/10/2019 05/10/2019 11/10/2019 28/09/2019 28/09/2019 05/10/2019

Course

Distance

Going

Class

Age

Placed

Btn/won by

SF

NEWM NEWM LONG LONG NEWM ASCO ASCO ASCO NEWM NEWM LONG LONG NEWM WOLV ASCO ASCO ASCO ASCO NEWM NEWM NEWM NOTT ASCO LONG NEWM NEWM NEWM WOLV

6 7 14.9 11.9 8 6 15.6 8 6 7 5 5 8 9.5 15.6 11.6 11.6 10 8 7 9 14 7 14.9 8 6 9 6.1

GF GF S S S H GS H GF GS S S G ST GS S S GS G G GF S S S G GF GF ST

1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 1 1 1 5 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 3 2 1 1 1 2 3

2 2 3 3 2 7 6 6 2 2 6 4 2 2 5 4 3 5 2 2 3 4 5 3 2 2 3 4

7 2 3 6 4 4 5 3 8 1 3 4 1 1 6 5 6 3 4 2 6 2 3 5 2 8 3 4

5.22 0.5 2.75 13.5 7.8 1.3 9.75 2.75 5.52 -8 3.3 3.37 -0.15 -2.25 10.25 3.87 3.94 3 2.55 7 6.32 0.75 3.75 5.75 0.15 6.37 4.75 4

101 101 101 101 101 101 101 101 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 99 99 99

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Start for FREE today at www.informracing.com ISSUE 181 RACING AHEAD

51

SPEED FIGURES Name

WHITE MOONLIGHT SO PERFECT BERKSHIRE ROCCO MONARCH OF EGYPT ONE MASTER FOREVER IN DREAMS MAKE A CHALLENGE SOUTH SEA PEARL MOHAATHER MEHDAAYIH GIBBS HILL ROPEY GUEST KING OF COMEDY POWER LINK WATCHABLE BILLESDON BROOK LOVE SUMMER MOON KHUZAAM LAST SURPRISE PINK DOGWOOD LORD NORTH PIECE OF PARADISE CERTAIN LAD FIFTH POSITION MOTAGALLY BEDOUIN'S STORY MUETTE GLENTIES MISS YODA WHO DARES WINS SPEAK IN COLOURS CLEONTE MAX DYNAMITE TARNAWA NAUSHA VERACIOUS ESCOBAR PERSIA DANIELLES DIAMOND ICKWORTH DYLAN DE VEGA DAKOTA GOLD MILLTOWN STAR ZAAKI BIN BATTUTA DUBAI HORIZON SMARTER DREAM TODAY ARECIBO SUMMERGHAND MABS CROSS BILL THE BUTCHER CAYENNE PEPPER PERSIA FELICIANA DE VEGA ADVERTISE HAPPY POWER CENTURY DREAM MAID IN INDIA ELECTRIC LADYLAND UAE JEWEL LAST SURPRISE 52

RACING AHEAD ISSUE 181

Date

05/10/2019 06/10/2019 12/10/2019 12/10/2019 19/10/2019 19/10/2019 19/10/2019 19/10/2019 19/10/2019 19/10/2019 21/09/2019 26/09/2019 27/09/2019 05/10/2019 05/10/2019 05/10/2019 11/10/2019 12/10/2019 16/10/2019 18/10/2019 19/10/2019 19/10/2019 20/09/2019 21/09/2019 28/09/2019 05/10/2019 05/10/2019 05/10/2019 12/10/2019 12/10/2019 12/10/2019 19/10/2019 19/10/2019 19/10/2019 19/10/2019 19/10/2019 19/10/2019 19/10/2019 17/09/2019 18/09/2019 20/09/2019 20/09/2019 21/09/2019 26/09/2019 27/09/2019 28/09/2019 28/09/2019 02/10/2019 05/10/2019 05/10/2019 05/10/2019 06/10/2019 10/10/2019 11/10/2019 12/10/2019 12/10/2019 19/10/2019 19/10/2019 19/10/2019 21/09/2019 24/09/2019 27/09/2019 28/09/2019

Course

Distance

Going

Class

Age

Placed

Btn/won by

SF

NEWM LONG NEWM NEWM ASCO ASCO ASCO ASCO ASCO ASCO NEWB NEWM NEWM WOLV WOLV NEWM NEWM NEWM KEMP WOLV ASCO ASCO AYR AYR NEWM WOLV ASCO LONG WOLV NEWM NEWM ASCO ASCO ASCO ASCO ASCO ASCO ASCO GALW NAAS AYR AYR NEWB NEWM NEWM CHLM NEWM NOTT WOLV ASCO ASCO LONG SOUT NEWM NEWM NEWM ASCO ASCO ASCO NEWB CHLM NEWM NEWM

8 5 10 7 6 6 6 11.6 8 10 10 7 8 6.1 6.1 8 8 18 8 7.2 11.6 8 5 10 9 6.1 7 14.9 9.5 10 18 6 15.6 15.6 11.6 11.6 8 8 8.6 5 5 5 5.2 8 8 10 9 14 6.1 5 7 5 7.1 8 8 9 6 8 8 5.2 5 8 7

GS S S S H H H S H GS G G G ST ST GS G S ST ST S H G G GF ST S S ST S S H GS GS S S H H S G G G GF G G ST GF S ST S S S ST G S S H H H GF ST G GF

4 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 3 3 1 1 2 3 4 1 2 1 2 2 3 2 1 5 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2

2 3 2 2 5 3 4 3 3 3 6 2 3 3 9 4 2 3 3 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 4 3 2 2 7 4 6 9 3 3 4 5 2 2 2 2 5 2 4 5 5 3 4 4 5 5 2 2 2 3 3 3 5 5 2 3 2

1 2 3 5 2 3 5 7 5 5 3 3 2 2 6 1 3 3 1 2 8 2 1 1 8 1 6 4 2 2 7 6 7 8 9 10 4 1 1 1 3 6 2 3 3 1 15 3 5 2 4 5 1 4 5 1 7 6 7 1 1 4 3

-3.75 3 3.75 9.5 1 1.3 2.8 6.19 5 4.15 0.57 8.25 5 2.5 5.75 -1.5 1.65 0.57 -7 1.25 6.94 2.25 -1 -0.3 7.64 -2.5 4.2 4.75 2.25 3 12.17 3.8 16.25 16.55 8.19 8.26 4.25 -2.25 -5 -6 1.5 2.4 0.5 2.25 6.25 -0.3 13.09 2.25 5 1.5 4.05 4.37 -4 2.9 11.8 -3 3.95 6.5 6.8 -0.5 -3.25 6.55 2.5

99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 97 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 95 95 95 95

1 1 1 2 1 2 2 3 3 1 2 1 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 1 2

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NOVEMBER 2019

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ISSUE 180 £3.49

ISSUE 181 £3.49

Baron Alco wins the BetVictor Gold Cup last year. Can he double up?

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key trends trends for betvictor for the cesarewitch gold cup ++++ ++++ paddock winning s em st pic sy ks

Enable wins the Arc de Triomphe.

Can she make it three in a row?

1743-551X

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FORM GUIDE

ones to follow TOP JOCKEYS IN NOVEMBER SINCE 2003 Jockey

Rides Wins Win%

Barzalona, Mickael Magnier, Mr J P Mullins, Mr P W Kinane, M J Walker, Mr S McNamara, Adam McNamara, Mr J T Cobden, Mr H Kennedy, J W Dingle, Mr Rex McCoy, A P Mangan, Miss J M McNamara, Mr R P Carberry, Miss N Culloty, J Boinville, Mr N de Derwin, Gary Geraghty, B J Dettori, L Crosse, S M Baker, Mr Z Bannister, Mr H A A Power, Mr K E Sousa, Silvestre De McDonald, Miss R Doyle, Brett Wood, George Murtagh, J Benson, P J Alison, Nathan

26 31 163 47 53 25 29 211 140 31 1107 40 77 178 77 176 28 982 56 48 33 136 46 278 32 70 75 183 36 27

7 8 42 12 13 6 7 50 32 7 257 9 17 40 17 39 6 205 12 10 7 27 9 55 6 13 14 35 7 5

27% 26% 26% 26% 25% 24% 24% 24% 23% 23% 23% 23% 22% 22% 22% 22% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 20% 20% 20% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19%

£1bet Places Place% 10.6 0.55 -49.09 15.63 32 6.63 0.04 1.05 29.91 0.08 -235.22 42 7.2 -24.43 29.11 20.62 -0.39 -222.35 -6.06 5.38 55.98 6.15 -4.07 14.06 109.76 -3.43 50.23 4.39 27.92 22.5

13 19 92 25 27 11 14 97 72 9 522 13 30 89 33 68 11 398 30 21 9 56 18 118 14 26 21 98 12 7

50% 61% 56% 53% 51% 44% 48% 46% 51% 29% 47% 33% 39% 50% 43% 39% 39% 41% 54% 44% 27% 41% 39% 42% 44% 37% 28% 54% 33% 26%

Jockey

Bets Wins Win%

Spencer, Jamie Fehily, Noel Fallon, K Andrews, Miss G Merrigan, Paddy Fairley, Greg Robinson, Ben Hatton, Peter Townend, P Fitzgerald, Mick ONeill, Ms Lisa Doyle, James Kelly, Miss E Johnson, Richard Skelton, Harry Keane, C T Hills, R Cooper, L Greatrex, Mr T Maguire, Jason Baker, George McGrath, Jeremiah Doran, Mr M N Brennan, P J Carberry, P Cooper, Bryan J Murphy, Timmy Whelan, R P Dobbin, Tony Foley, Marcus

350 1149 192 44 114 158 28 28 531 266 44 343 59 1518 509 213 103 47 29 747 609 141 38 1023 655 382 752 151 330 129

Trainer

Bets Wins Win%

Swinbank, G A Tate, T P Hales, Edward U Ferguson, J P OBrien, Fergal Palmer, Hugo Bolger, E Brown, G Dartnall, V R A Dascombe, Tom Pitt, T J Elliott, Gordon Burke, Mrs K Skelton, Daniel Oliver, Henry Edmunds, Stuart Hobbs, P J King, A Haslam, P C Richards, N G Meade, Noel Wachman, David Gosden, J H M Beckett, R M Wragg, G Sherwood, O Tizzard, C L OGrady, E J

238 91 31 99 290 96 146 39 266 200 76 914 44 485 100 65 1317 1335 184 473 1027 121 523 288 42 445 736 399

64 209 34 8 20 29 5 5 94 49 8 60 10 262 86 37 18 8 5 129 99 23 6 160 104 61 119 24 53 21

18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16%

£1bet Places Place% -32.02 -19.49 -2.4 5.75 111.75 74.1 28.5 47.75 -133.96 -69.71 -21.75 -55.4 -8.51 -188.61 -85.64 -6.07 -14.18 0.89 -2.25 -45.04 -41.03 -42.45 3.33 -108.89 -149.2 -136.79 -125.95 26.99 -137.75 -17.27

145 463 82 18 32 46 9 12 212 109 20 125 20 628 194 84 49 20 11 278 230 55 11 367 250 128 259 45 109 40

41% 40% 43% 41% 28% 29% 32% 43% 40% 41% 45% 36% 34% 41% 38% 39% 48% 43% 38% 37% 38% 39% 29% 36% 38% 34% 34% 30% 33% 31%

TOP TRAINERS IN NOVEMBER SINCE 2003 Trainer

Runs Wins Win%

Appleby, Charlie 120 Al Zarooni, Mahmood 27 Mullins, W P 944 Tinkler, C 46 Fry, Harry 241 Suroor, Saeed Bin 321 Henderson, N J 1021 Nicholls, P F 1508 Mills, T G 45 Hamilton, Mrs A 72 Noseda, J 123 Lacey, T 78 Burrows, Owen 26 Pipe, M C 338 Lavelle, Miss E C 458 ONeill, E J 46 Newland, Dr R D P 172 Smith, Matthew J 37 Crisford, Simon 65 Haggas, W J 350 Fleming, A 73 Whittington, H 92 Charlton, R 217 Best, Jim 157 Greatrex, W J 330 Pauling, Ben 198 Butler, G A 183 Johnson, J Howard 467 54

RACING AHEAD ISSUE 181

41 8 260 13 68 87 278 361 11 17 28 18 6 73 100 10 38 8 14 73 15 19 43 32 67 39 34 90

34% 30% 28% 28% 28% 27% 27% 24% 24% 24% 23% 23% 23% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 21% 21% 21% 20% 20% 20% 20% 19% 19%

£1bet Places Place% 19.74 6.35 -126.72 24.77 9.63 -18.59 -89.72 -122.1 20 55.88 32.02 37.63 -3.34 -41.02 60.01 -0.74 -5.9 23 -3.07 -56.44 9.96 -7.99 7.02 18.69 -84.65 40.08 73.19 -34.43

65 16 484 21 116 173 523 700 21 28 69 36 14 148 174 19 68 12 32 168 26 33 74 54 142 79 72 191

54% 59% 51% 46% 48% 54% 51% 46% 47% 39% 56% 46% 54% 44% 38% 41% 40% 32% 49% 48% 36% 36% 34% 34% 43% 40% 39% 41%

46 17 6 19 56 18 26 7 47 36 14 161 8 85 18 12 225 229 31 80 178 21 88 49 7 74 123 66

19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17% 17%

£1bet Places Place% 26.68 13.75 20.08 -13.57 85.35 -21.09 -10.14 30.5 56.99 2.5 0.18 -176.97 -0.25 -95.47 42 -12.56 -68.39 -242.88 23.31 -71.67 -229.32 17.42 -133.35 20.76 40.5 -72.86 8.98 -69.11

94 43 7 42 115 38 55 11 106 71 25 371 15 180 37 29 536 575 54 192 417 49 231 101 14 176 270 136

39% 47% 23% 42% 40% 40% 38% 28% 40% 36% 33% 41% 34% 37% 37% 45% 41% 43% 29% 41% 41% 40% 44% 35% 33% 40% 37% 34%

Get in the picture!

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Many of the photos have appeared in Racing Ahead magazine.

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WWW.ROGUESGALLERYRACING.COM FRANKEL COLT & PIVOTAL COLT FOR ONLY £1,000 A SHARE

FRANKEL COLT

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