Fuels & Lubes International by F+L Asia

Quarter Three 2010 Volume 16 Issue 3

I N T E R N A T I O N A L

Ford: BOOSTING, DOWNSIZING AND DOWNSPEEDING

Time for an OIL CHANGE? BIOTRIBOLOGY helps improve human lives SELF-REPAIRING SYSTEMS: from Science Fiction to the Lab

Editor’s Corner

Technology & Innovation: Creating More with Less

“Network and meet valuable contacts by joining our new interactive online community to be launched soon.” Vicky Villena-Denton Editor-in-Chief & Publisher

ONE OF THE THINGS THAT I REALLY LOOK FORWARD TO EVERY year is organizing our annual conference. As last year, the Annual Fuels & Lubes Asia Conference will be held back-to-back with the Asia-Pacific Base Oil Conference. So mark March 7-11, 2011 on your calendar now! Our theme for next year is “Technology & Innovation: Creating More with Less.” Next year’s theme picks up where we left off with this year’s theme of “Fuel Economy & Emissions: Exploring Beyond Today’s Limitations.” It underlines the issue of energy efficiency/savings on the agenda, as we all face the challenge of resource limitation and serious concerns about the environment. Technology & innovation are the keys to success, as we move forward in the transition from the traditional mobile sources of energy to new and renewable forms of energy. Partnership and collaboration can help to deliver more efficient solutions. Thus, we continue to seek partnerships to help establish a more structured form of collaboration among all key stakeholders, including the oil industry, the additive industry and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), who are all represented in the SAE Steering Committee for Asia, as well as government and non-governmental organizations like the Clean Air Initiative for Asia (CAI-Asia), in Asia-Pacific. We are now calling for papers for the 17th Annual Fuels & Lubes Asia Conference and the 5th Asia-Pacific Base Oil Conference which will be held in Singapore. To encourage papers from non-English speaking countries, we plan to offer translations for speakers from these countries. The deadline to propose an abstract is August 31, 2010. You can send your proposed abstract by email to editor@fuelsandlubes.com. More details are available on our website, www.fuelsandlubes.com. I would also like to encourage you to start networking with your industry colleagues now even before conference week by joining our new interactive online community to be launched soon.

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CONTENTS P H O T O CO U R T E S Y O F F O R D M O T O R CO M PA N Y

BOOSTING, DOWNSIZING AND DOWNSPEEDING Proven technologies to help Ford boost vehicle arsenal as a prelude to alternatives

Features

No country left behind: Advancing fuel economy in developing Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Time for an oil change? Advanced generation of PAG shows promise for engine oil formulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Biotribology helps improve human lives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Judgment Day: Self-repairing systemsâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;from science fiction to the lab . . . . . . . . . 35

F U E L S & L U B E S I N T E R N AT I O N A L

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In search of a new equilibrium

Fuels & Lubes International Quarter Three 2010 Volume 16 Issue 3 ISSN 0117-9470 CopyrightÂŠ 2010 F&L Asia, Inc. Photo courtesy of Ford Motor Company

To move Asia forward, national governments need to take the lead by mandating a clear and firm road map for cleaner fuels and vehicles.

page

Columns In search of a new equilibrium: A review of the global base oil market . . . 8 Greening trucks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Road map to cleaner fuels and vehicles in Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Editor's Corner . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Advertisersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

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Contributors

Hogan

Looye

Hank Hogan is an Austin, Texas-based freelancer who writes about business, energy, technology and science. Like others in Texas, heâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s sold exploration rights to an independent but a gusher hasnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t come in yet. Kelly Thornton is a freelance writer based in San Diego, Calif. She was a staff writer for 18 years at the San Diego Union-Tribune, covering law enforcement and legal affairs. Phil Britt is a veteran journalist who has spent more than 30 years covering various industries for magazines, newsletters, newspapers and online publications. He is based in suburban Chicago.

Britt

Thornton

F U E L S & L U B E S I N T E R N AT I O N A L

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Fabian

Punte

Bathan

Sophie Punte is the executive director of the Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities (CAI-Asia) Center in Manila, which aims to facilitate improving the air quality of Asian cities by better integrating air quality management in government strategies, policies and program.

Bert Fabian is the transport program manager of the Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities (CAI-Asia) Center in Manila, which aims to promote better air quality and livable cities by translating knowledge to policy and action to reduce air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.

Jeroen Looye spent seven years as a base oil trader for AP Chemicals in Belgium. He is now an entrepreneur based in The Netherlands and is director of the Dutch company Losiwo B.V. that launched the base oil platform, www.baseoilmarket. com, in 2008.

Glynda Bathan is a lawyer who has worked with CAI-Asia since it was founded in 2001. As policy and partnership manager, she assists eight country networks in Asia (China, Indonesia, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Vietnam, and India) in partnership building, knowledge sharing, project development and implementation.

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BASE OIL COLUMN I L LU S T R AT I O N BY C H I L I D O G S

2009-2010 Base oil SN500 prices ($/MT) $950 $900 $850 $800 $750 $700 $650 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun FOB Europe FOB Asia FOB Middle East FOB Baltic 2009-2010 Base oil SN150 prices ($/MT) $950 $900 $850 $800 $750 $700 $650 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun FOB Europe FOB Asia FOB Middle East FOB Baltic 2009-2010 Base oil BS150 prices ($/MT)

In search of a new

EQUILIBRIUM

$1100 $1050 $1000 $950 $900 $850 $800 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun FOB Europe FOB Asia FOB Middle East

A review of the global base oil market

2009-2010 Base oil SN500 prices ($/MT)

by Jeroen Looye

N RECENT MONTHS, THE GLOBAL BASE OIL MARKET HAS BEEN very anxious. High volatility in the crude oil market has made many producers and buyers cautious. Since the end of April, the next phase of the global credit crisis seems to have started. The focus of financial markets started to shift away from the economic recovery that started in the first quarter of 2009. Markets are now focusing on the fact that no real solution for the credit crisis has been presented. All we have seen so far is a transfer of debt from the private sector (mostly financial institutions and households) to governments. The resulting explosive increase in government deficits has gone unpunished until then, when Greece’s government bonds began to fall sharply and borrowing costs for the Greek government more than tripled. Interest rates of other financially weak countries in the European Union, such as Portugal, Ireland and Spain also rose sharply. The only way to restore normal borrowing costs is to significantly cut back on government spending and raise taxes. Large economies such as the U.S., the U.K. and Japan have similar problems and they will at some point also have to spend less and save more. Since this will sharply reduce economic growth, as government spending has become a more significant part of these countries’ gross domestic product (GDP) during the global financial crisis, equity and commodity markets dropped sharply. Consequently, the benchmark crude, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), dropped from US$86 per barrel to less than US$70 in three weeks, after which it recovered to around US$74 per barrel. The dynamics in the regional base oil markets are different, however. In Europe and the U.S., base oil prices continued their upward trend convincingly, while Asian markets were hesitant and lagged behind the west. Higher prices in the west were mainly driven by tight supply. There were even trades from Asia to the U.S., which is unusual. The U.S. was exporting more base oils to China, than vice versa, in recent years. “In Search of a New Equilibrium” continued on page 12 >>

$1000 $950 $900 $850 $800 $750 $700 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun CFR NE Asia CFR India 2009-2010 Base oil SN150 prices ($/MT) $1000 $950 $900 $850 $800 $750 $700 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun CFR NE Asia CFR India 2009-2010 Base oil BS150 prices ($/MT) $1200 $1100 $1000 $900 $800 $700 $600 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun CFR NE Asia CFR India Source: www.baseoilmarket.com

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GUEST COLUMN

I L LU S T R AT I O N BY C H I L I D O G S

Guangzhou Green Trucks Pilot Project

Greening

UANGZHOU, THE CAPITAL OF GUANGdong province, is the largest city in southern China and a key transportation hub. A pilot project in Guangzhou analyzed the truck sector through research and a survey, developed and tested training materials for truck fuel efficiency, and carried out a technology pilot. As part of the technology pilot, three companies tested tire and aerodynamics technologies. Fuel and emissions savings for garbage trucks equipped with low rolling resistance tires and a tire pressure monitoring system were about 18%. This figure is much higher than the savings seen in the United States, most likely because aside from reducing friction with the road, the new tires also made the truck more stable, thus reducing fuel use. Fuel savings of long distance trucks was about 6.6%. This was less than expected because pilot trucks traveled at lower speeds than the 75 km/hour needed for

Trucks

by Sophie Punte, Yan Peng and Alvin Mejia

FREIGHT IS THE “CINDERELLA” OF THE TRANSPORT SECTOR worldwide, especially in Asia. Whether it is the introduction of cleaner fuels, fuel economy standards, tax incentives, or investments in infrastructure to improve transport, the freight sector comes last and is often ignored. Government policies concerning road transport tend to focus on private vehicles and public transport more than on trucks, despite their huge potential to reduce fuel, CO2 emissions and air pollution. Trucks are not in the public eye. They are not a priority for politicians. People either drive cars or ride the bus, but trucks transport goods. Within cities, trucks are often allowed at night only along specific corridors, as a way to reduce traffic congestion during the day. The high fragmentation of the truck sector in China—52% of trucks surveyed in Guangzhou are driver-owned—makes trucks harder to manage. Trucks travel across provincial and even outside national borders. For example, more than 80% of trucks surveyed indicated that their destinations are outside Guangdong Province. Therefore, it is not always possible for individual cities or even provinces to effectively deal with trucks. New technologies are out of reach for most truck drivers-owners because banks often shy away from giving loans due to their poor credit ratings. It is critical to make the freight sector more sustainable if we are serious about addressing fuel security, climate change and air pollution in Asia. Diesel consumption is much higher than gasoline across Asia, and the number of diesel vehicles, especially trucks, is expected to grow explosively. In China, while diesel vehicles (largely trucks and buses) represented only 12% of all vehicles in 2005, they were responsible for 29% of total vehicle kilometer traveled, 72% of CO2 and “Greening Trucks” continued on next page >>

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aerodynamics technologies to significantly reduce drag and fuel use. Still, the savings are high enough for companies to be interested in these technologies. A larger pilot project is now being planned for Guangdong Province, covering hundreds of trucks. The pilot project was funded by the World Bank, AusAID and Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) and implemented by Clean Air Initiative-Asia (CAI-Asia and the World Bank, in partnership with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Cascade Sierra Solutions (CSS) and the Guangzhou government.

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>> “In Search of a New Equilibrium...” cont. from page 8

But during the second quarter, tight supply in the U.S. and a slowdown in demand in Asia opened a small window for arbitrage from Asia to the U.S. In Europe, where export has a larger effect on prices than in other regions, base oil prices increased significantly during the quarter, particularly for SN150 and SN500. Domestic prices in Europe increased by US$170 and US$110 per metric ton for SN150 and SN500, respectively. In March and April, prices were pushed up by high crude oil prices and exports to Asia. After the decline in export volumes to Asia, prices continued to rise as demand from the U.S., Africa and Turkey grew. Europe exported both SN500 and SN150 to the U.S. during this period. Meanwhile, strong demand for SN150 from Turkey resulted in a steep price increase. Spot trades were concluded at US$940 per metric ton CFR Gebze for Russian SN150. On the production side, tight supply, partly as a result of numerous turnarounds in Russia this quarter, also pushed European base oil prices higher. After strong demand for base oils in Asia during the first quarter, trading activity to Asia has slowed down in recent months. As a result, base oil prices CFR North East Asia for SN150/SN500 only increased between US$30 and US$40 per metric ton. Higher price levels were mainly driven by price hikes by Asian refineries, including PetroChina and Sinopec in China, Formosa Petrochemical in Taiwan and ExxonMobil in Singapore. Buyers, however, were reluctant to purchase base oils at these higher

12 F U E L S & L U B E S I N T E R N AT I O N A L Q u a r t e r T h r e e 2 010

prices. The finished lubricants market had difficulties absorbing the cost of higher raw material prices. Also, the recent drop in crude oil prices could push base oil prices lower in the near term. In this environment, it is very hard for buyers and sellers to reach an agreement on a trade price. Thus, trading in recent months has been thin. This standoff is expected to continue at least until September. In the meantime, supply in the Asian region remains tight. Exports from Asia to other regions were seen from refineries in Taiwan, China and India. Base oil prices in the U.S. continued to firm up due to an increase in domestic demand and as a result of the limited allocation of production to base oils. This resulted in higher base oil prices in the U.S. compared to other regions. Domestic prices rose to US$1,230 per metric ton for SN500 and US$1,240 for BS150. As the U.S. market could not provide sufficient base oils for its current domestic demand, base oil cargoes were imported from both Europe and Asia. Base oil markets are looking for a new equilibrium. On one hand, supply is tight in several regions and may very well stay tight, partly because supply is artificially limited to support current prices. On the other hand, current price levels are difficult to pass on to finished products. The sharp fall in crude oil prices suggest that base oil prices may well come under pressure in the near term. Participants in the base oil market have adopted a wait-and-see attitude. If the near-term economic outlook does not improve significantly, we expect that current price levels will not be sustainable and base oil prices will have to trend lower.

>> “Greening Trucks” continued from previous page

91% of particulate matter (PM) emissions. Fuel costs can be 60% of truck operating costs in Asia, making it an even more attractive area for cost reductions than in the U.S., where driver wages are the largest cost component. So what can be done to clean up trucks in Asia? First, ample options exist for engines and fuels, such as using lowsulfur diesel fuel, lower viscosity, as well as higher grade and higher quality, lubricants and oil filtration. Diesel particulate filters and other emission control devices can reduce between 60% up to 90% of air pollutants of PM, hydrocarbons and carbon monoxide. Truck performance can be improved through truck weight reduction, improving aerodynamics to reduce drag, reducing tire rolling resistance, or installing technologies that allow the driver to reduce idling, such as auxiliary power units. A recent pilot project in Guangzhou tested several of these technologies. In the U.S., the difference in fuel consumption between the best and the worst drivers was found to be as high as 35%. Ecodriving and better maintenance therefore are low-cost options that can result in significant savings. Old and polluting trucks can be replaced with newer trucks or electrichybrid trucks and are particularly attractive for large fleet operators. Improving freight logistics would involve integration of truck companies as well as logistics centers. This is badly needed as overloaded trucks and empty hauls are a severe problem across Asia. For example, about 40% of trips in Guangdong Province are empty. Freight could be better allocated across different modes, including trucks, rail, ships and airplanes. High commodity and perishable goods will continue to be transported by trucks and airplanes, but rails and ships are very suitable for bulk and lower value commodity goods, such as coal and other raw materials for industry. To capitalize on the fuel and other cost savings potential of these various strategies, a dedicated program for the freight sector is needed. There is an opportunity to build on successful programs elsewhere, such as the SmartWay program in the U.S. and similar programs in Europe and Australia. A program will only work if supported by shippers, carriers, government and other stakeholders, and should cover technologies, logistics, financing, policies and information. The CAI-Asia Center will be designing such a Green Freight Program for China, which could also serve as a model for other developing countries.

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Road Map to Cleaner Fuels and Vehicles in Asia by Glynda Bathan and Bert Fabian

EHICLE NUMBERS ARE FORECAST TO GROW RAPIDLY IN China, India and the ASEAN region in the next 25 years. By 2035, China and India’s vehicle population would surpass that of OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries. Vehicle emission and fuel quality standards play a critical role in limiting the emissions from each vehicle and, together with other measures, in reducing the impact of continued vehicle growth on Asia’s air quality. In Asia’s cities, the average concentration of PM10 (particulate matter 10 microns or less in diameter) in the air is 90μg/m3, exceeding the World Health Organization air quality guideline of 20μg/m3 by almost 400%. As PM10 in the ambient air increases by 10μg/m3, the risk of early deaths in Asia goes up by 0.5% according to research by the Health Effects Institute, an independent research organization based in Boston, Massachusetts. Motor vehicles are responsible for as much as 75% of ambient PM levels in these cities. Near roadside traffic emissions are also a major concern, and health studies suggest that people living within a range of up to 300 to 500 meters to a highway or a major road are most highly affected by traffic emissions. Protecting public health and reducing the economic burden of treatment are compelling reasons to mandate vehicle emissions and fuel quality standards in Asia. Clean Air Initiative-Asia (CAI-Asia) helped draft the “Road Map for Cleaner Fuels and Vehicles in Asia” which strongly encourages Asian countries to develop na-

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tional plans with clear timelines to introduce fuel and vehicle standards so that the oil and vehicle industries can sufficiently plan for the investments needed to comply with the new standards. The timing for introducing vehicle emission standards is critical as it takes about 15 years to completely replace in-use vehicles with cleaner ones; the sooner they are put in place, the sooner the vehicle replacement process can start. Improved fuel quality, however, could immediately reduce emissions even from in-use vehicles, albeit on a limited scale. While the trend in Asia is to progressively tighten vehicle emission standards, the region has a long way to go towards harmonization. India moved nationwide to Euro 3 this year and China to Euro 4 equivalent standards in 2008. Major metropolitan areas in India have even adopted stricter standards (e.g., Euro 4 equivalent vehicle emission standards in 13 cities). But other South Asian countries have yet to develop road maps beyond their current Euro 1 and Euro 2 standards. In Southeast Asia, some countries plan to move to Euro 4, but seem to waver in their resolve to take this step soon; plans to move to Euro 4 in 2012 have been delayed to 2015 or later. Sulfur in fuels deserves special attention. At high levels (e.g., above 50 parts per million or ppm), sulfur can reduce the effectiveness of advanced threeway catalysts for gasoline vehicles and clog particulate filters in diesel vehicles. The link between low sulfur and better air quality can be shown in the case of Thailand, which achieved lower roadside and ambient levels of PM10, carbon monoxide and nitrogen dioxide from its fuel sulfur reduction measures. However, progress in reducing sulfur levels in diesel fuel down to 50 ppm in other Asian developing countries has been slow. China and India are phasing down to 350 ppm nationwide starting 2010, even though 50 ppm has already been mandated for Beijing (2008), Shanghai (2009) and Guangdong Province (2010). Sulfur levels in diesel fuel in most Southeast and South Asian countries (except Thailand) remain at 500 ppm and higher. To move Asia forward, national governments need to take the lead by mandating a clear and firm road map for cleaner fuels and vehicles. In consultations by CAI-Asia with governments and other stakeholders, the question on the financial and economic impacts of tighter vehicle emission standards always crops up. Experience from “Road Map...” continued on page 38 >>

FE AT U R E

NO COUNTRY LEFT BEHIND

Advancing fuel economy in developing Asia by Sophie Punte, Bert Fabian, Sudhir Gota and Alvin Mejia

Vehicle numbers in China and India will be comparable to OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries in 2035 because of rapid motorization. And while the current number of vehicles per 1,000 people in developing Asia remains much lower than in OECD countries, we expect vehicle numbers in China and India to grow even further beyond 2035. MORE VEHICLES MEAN HIGHER fuel consumption, leading to a fourfold increase in CO2 emissions by 2035 compared with 2005. Particulate matter (PM) emissions will continue to decline thanks to tougher fuel quality and vehicle emission standards, but these gains eventually will be offset by continued vehicle growth. Developing countries are at a crossroads as current decisions and investments in the transport sector lock-in greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions for years to come. Improving the fuel economy of vehicles is a key strategy for these countries to consider.

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The implementation of progressively tighter mandatory fuel efficiency standards for vehicles can achieve steady and rapid technology uptake while avoiding increases in vehicle size, weight and power, all of which erode the fuel savings provided by new technologies. Mandatory fuel economy standards were first introduced by the European Union, Korea, Japan and the U.S., and voluntary standards exist in Australia. In developing Asia, mandatory standards are enacted in China and are being developed for India and Thailand, and Singapore introduced mandatory fuel labeling for vehicles. Fuel efficiency efforts

in other Asian countries have stalled as voluntary measures. We can conclude that most Asian countries have not yet recognized the urgency and the potential of fuel economy standards to address energy security, climate change and air pollution. China has clearly understood this potential both from an economic and environmental perspective. As a global leader in both vehicle manufacturing and sales, vehicle fuel efficiency is embedded in Chinaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Five Year Plans, policies and programs at all levels of government. China introduced fuel economy standards in 2005 for new passenger vehicles in 16 vehicle weight classes, and by 2015 will further improve fuel economy of new passenger vehicles by 18%. Standards are supplemented with higher vehicle excise taxes for large-engine vehicles. A newly released stimulus plan for new energy vehicles is also expected to boost domestic production of energy vehicles. The most telling example of Chinaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s keenness to make vehicles driven in China less fueldependent is its refusal to allow a Chinese

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250

Thailand-LDV+HDV-FE Thailand (Reference) Thailand-LDV-FE Million Tons of CO2

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0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035

Philippines-LDV+HDV-FE Philippines (Reference) Philippines-LDV-FE Million Tons of CO2

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vehicle manufacturer to buy the Hummer, a gas guzzler, from U.S.-based General Motors Corp. Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s fuel economy and vehicle labeling scheme is making a slower start. First there was debate about whether standards should be fuel or CO2 based, and whether to supplement this with a voluntary or mandatory labeling scheme. As fuel efficiency is covered by several government agencies, it took a long time to assign the responsibility for developing the standards to the Bureau of Energy Efficiency under the Ministry of Power, and their implementation to the Ministry of Shipping Road Transport and Highways. The mandatory fuel economy standards and labeling scheme are to be enacted later this year. The potential for fuel economy in Southeast Asian countries is huge. If, by 2035, fuel efficiency of new diesel and gasoline vehicles in Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam is improved by 35% from 2012 levels, then fuel cost savings will be a staggering 25%. Savings will be even higher if fuel prices rise, which is likely. To maximize the fuel and CO2 reduction potential, fuel economy standards and sup-

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Vietnam-LDV+HDV-FE Vietnam (Reference) Vietnam-LDV-FE

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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035

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porting measures should cover light- and heavy-duty vehicles. By 2035, CO2 reductions of up to 26% can be realized for both types of vehicles combined, compared to 8% to 16% for light-duty vehicles alone. The main reason for the high reduction

The potential for fuel economy in Southeast Asian countries is huge. If, by 2035, fuel efficiency of new diesel and gasoline vehicles in Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam is improved by 35% from 2012 levels, then fuel cost savings will be a staggering 25%. potential of heavy-duty vehicles, including buses and trucks, is that they travel more but are less fuel efficient because of poor maintenance and vehicle age. The timing for introducing standards is critical as it takes about 15 years for complete fleet renewal in Southeast Asia. Removing fuel subsidies can have

an even bigger impact on the success of fuel economy standards and measures, especially in countries like Indonesia and Malaysia where fuel subsidies are about 2.5% of gross domestic product (GDP). The international focus on climate change and associated CO2 reductions is growing and will certainly accelerate the uptake of fuel economy standards in Asia. However, such standards should be developed taking into account other fuel, vehicle and energyrelated policies. Developing countries tend to give priority to reducing fossil fuel dependency (e.g., introducing biofuels), and to reducing air pollution from vehicles through improved fuel quality. We strongly recommend a regional approach to improving fuel economy. Countries doing this alone risk losing vehicle manufacturing plants to other countries or would be unable to introduce standards if they only import or assemble vehicles, like Vietnam. A regional approach will ensure that no country is left behind, avoiding the risk that they become dumping grounds for inefficient vehicles. And in the end, vehicle manufacturers would benefit from clarity on future policies.

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BOOSTING, DOWNSIZING AND DOWNSPEEDING Proven technologies to help Ford boost vehicle arsenal as a prelude to alternatives by Hank Hogan

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P H O T O CO U R T E S Y O F F O R D M O T O R CO M PA N Y

COV E R

S TO RY

The way Dan Kapp tells it, Shakespeare was right, at least when it comes to the future of engines from American carmaker Ford Motor Co. At the Dearborn, Michiganbased company, what’s past really is prologue, and that can readily be seen in Ford’s EcoBoost line of engines. By using proven technologies in new combinations, Ford intends to create an engine platform that will meet fuel efficiency and other new requirements, such as lower emissions, for years to come.

HERE ARE SEVERAL IMPLICATIONS for lubricants in this effort. Operating temperatures will be higher, the use of biofuels greater and oil drain intervals longer. Because future engines will be smaller yet will put out as much, or higher, torque than today’s engines, EcoBoost engines may even alter long-running lubricant trends. “I think some of the historic trend that we’ve seen toward lower and lower viscosities will certainly start to truncate and possibly even want to go back slightly in the other direction. In other words, some of these engines might do better with a 5W-30 than a 5W-20,” said Kapp, director for powertrain research and advanced engineering at Ford. There could be issues to overcome that gasoline engines have not had to face in the past, he said. Soot formation, for example, could be a concern. Previously, this was a problem that only diesel engines had to contend with. This, and other problems, could impact future lubricant formulations. Taking a combo approach

“At least for another 10 years or more, most of our vehicles are going to be powered by gasoline engines,” said Kapp. For the near and medium term, Ford had to devise a solution that leveraged current technology where billions of dollars have already been invested, not just by Ford but by other original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) as well. These include technologies, such as turbocharging, direct injection and variable valve timing, which were used as the basis for Ford’s EcoBoost platform. It’s a technology in which Ford holds more than 125 patents. Turbocharging boosts performance but can lead to knocking, which arises when the air-fuel mixture in a combustion engine explodes out of sequence. At best, knocking is a nuisance. At worst, it’s destructive. Fortunately, direct injection helps cut knocking down. When combined with turbocharging, the result can be a near doubling of engine torque on a volume basis. Power per liter of engine displacement is likewise improved, increasing by as much as 50%. The combination also offers other advantages over today’s engines, which are naturally aspirated and so depend upon atmospheric pressure to force in combustion air. Such engines, Kapp said in his STLE presentation, operate efficiently only over a limited range of mean effective pressures and revolutions per minute (RPM). Also, fuel efficiency is best only under high loads. The turbocharging-direct injection combination changes these operational performance characteristics and improves efficiency substantially. For example, it expands the region of good brake specific fuel consumption (BSFC), which is a measure of an engine’s fuel efficiency. In engines running at 2000 RPM, the operating region with good BSFC might be expanded three- or four-fold for the new technology over the old, according to data he presented. The power of this new type of engine will be available over a much wider range of speed than is possible now, he said. “I’ve got this brilliant torque curve characteristic that allows it to deliver this whole torque at almost any RPM,” he said.

“I think some of the historic trend that we’ve seen toward lower and lower viscosities will certainly start to truncate and possibly even want to go back slightly in the other direction.”

Kapp outlined the latest twist in Ford’s EcoBoost program at the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) World Congress in April and again at the Annual Meeting of the Society of Tribologists and Lubrication Engineers (STLE) in May. The company created the program in response to two realities, he said. The first is that increased fuel efficiency standards are coming. The question then becomes how best to meet these, along with more stringent pollution requirements, while still producing millions of cars annually for a mass market. The second truth, said Kapp, is that there can only be one approach to do so across an entire automotive product line. He acknowledged that there is a global push toward hybrid and electric powertrains. He noted that in the long run these, and even more exotic alternative engines, may be a large part of the global mix. However, these are longrange possibilities and won’t affect the near and medium term, he said.

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Saving fuel while spending little

What the increase in performance means is that an engine built with the new technology can deliver the same power as the current one that is much larger. The displacement savings run about 40%. As a result, tomorrow’s V6 could pack as much punch as today’s V8, Kapp said. The company debuted the EcoBoost technology as a 3.5 L V6. Kapp said it performs as well or better than V8s, when in

EcoBoost Engine

Spark Plug

DI for Gas? DIRECT INJECTION Fuel Injector Piston

Highly pressurized fuel is injected directly into the combustion chamber of each cylinder rather than traditional mixing with the incoming air in the inlet port. Advantages include: more precise delivery of fuel for lower emissions, improved volumetric efficiency and avoidance of knock for better performance and fuel efficiency.

Turbo: Power for the People TURBO CHARGING

Engine Exhaust

Ambient Energy from the engine’s Air exhaust, that would otherwise be wasted, is utilized to rotate a turbine wheel. The turbine is coupled to a compressor which pressurizes the incoming air, significantly increasing the output per liter of the engine. The traditional disadvantages of “boosting,” turbo lag and knock, are mitigated by the synergy with direct injection.

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a competitive configuration. In its base form, the new engine has the fuel economy of a V6. According to Ford, it offers fuel savings of 20% as compared to a standard V8. On the other hand, a four-cylinder 2.0 L I-4 version delivers the same power as a V6, at a 10% fuel savings. These engines are only the beginning. Ford intends to replicate this reduction in engine displace- Dan Kapp ments across its product line-up. This can be done because the technology will be applied to existing engines, will not require a major overhaul of engine assets and will not demand a substantial change in manufacturing facilities. The savings in engine displacement translates into a roughly equivalent reduction in weight. That will lead to an improvement in fuel efficiency, since weight is coming out of the engine and the car. The weight savings, the company estimates, will eventually range from 250 to 750 pounds (113 to 340 kg), but achieving that will take years because it requires a vehicle redesign. Ford expects this to be done sometime between 2012 and 2020. The final step in the technological evolution is a shift toward a lower engine speed, which will allow a better match between the engine’s rate of rotation and a vehicle’s top speed. That changes the overall vehicle operating characteristics and leads to about a 10% improvement in highway fuel efficiency, Kapp said. Implementing this technology isn’t free. Ford won’t disclose how much incorporating turbocharging, direct injection and variable valve timing adds to the cost of the engine. But Kapp did say that the company’s computer models showed this to be the most cost effective way to go. He illustrated this by talking about how long it would take to recoup the extra expense. “The payback time in terms of fuels savings for EcoBoost tends to be around two years, and that’s obviously very sensitive to the price of the fuel,” he said. “If you were to compare that to the cost of, say, diesel or hybrids, those payback times are out in the eight- to 10-year time frame.” Ready to roll

As for implementation across the Ford vehicle fleet, that is expected to occur fairly rapidly. Over the next few years, the company plans to introduce 30 EcoBoost powertrains, deploying these in everything from small cars to large trucks. By 2013, said Kapp, the new technology will be in nine out of 10 of the company’s nameplates. Wringing greater efficiencies out of the technology over the longer term presents some challenges. In April, the company announced plans to incorporate the use of cooled exhaust gas recirculation (EGR). In this approach, exhaust gas

I M AG E S CO U R T E S Y O F F O R D M O T O R CO M PA N Y

is cooled in a heat exchanger and then pumped back into the cylinders, lowering the combustion temperature. Cooled EGR not only increases efficiency but also combats knocking. Other possible improvements involve lean combustion. But this could necessitate more sophisticated turbocharging. Thinner films, but no less work

What does all of this mean for lubricants? If EcoBoost, or something similar to it, succeeds, there will be smaller engines operating in regimes that automobile gas engines have never been before. Some of the potential effects include low-speed preignition, a condition that has been called mega-knock. As the name implies, this isn’t desirable. There could be a connection between mega-knock and the ash level in the lubricating oil, although Kapp cautioned that this is still under investigation. If the link with ash level proves to be true, additive suppliers may need to take this into account. Another possible effect could be soot, something that gasoline engines haven’t had to deal with historically. The new technology will change that and that could impact oil formulations, said Kapp. “The direct injected engines, and even more so as we start incorporating cooled EGR out into the future, will tend to form more soot inside the engine. This has obviously been a concern with diesels for a long time but I think they’ve had unique formulations as a result of that.” As for a possible reversal of the trend toward lower viscosities, that could be a consequence of the change in engine size. The engines of the future may be smaller and have fewer cylinders, but they’ll still be delivering the same amount of torque. Thus, they will have less load-bearing surface area, but no less of a load to bear. The challenge

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will be to maintain the required lubricant film thickness under such conditions. The aging of the oil in such an environment may be accelerated, which would suggest a shorter drain interval. However, the trend is just the opposite. Ford, for example, is adopting a 10,000 mile or 16,000 km oil drain interval for model year 2011, up from 7,500 miles for 2007 and later model cars. That has implications for the lubricants, which will have to continue to work despite higher operating temperatures. They will also have to maintain consistent viscosity over a wider temperature range, since the new engines will still be started in all of the same conditions as the old engines were, but will run much hotter. The new, smaller engines could also have an impact on fuels. Knocking, for example, tends to decrease as octane increases. So there may be some push by car manufacturers for an increase in octane. That could dovetail well with the increasing use of biofuels. Increasing the percentage of ethanol, for instance, raises octane levels, so a higher ethanol blend could help alleviate knocking. So far, the tendency has been to keep the octane level the same as the percentage of the ethanol blend in the gasoline goes up, which can be done by using a base fuel with a lower octane.

If EcoBoost, or something similar to it, succeeds, there will be smaller engines operating in regimes that automobile gas engines have never been before. A final lubrication challenge is one that’s not unique to Ford’s approach. Hybrids, as well as EcoBoost, switch the engine off at idle as a way to cut fuel consumption, with the engine turned back on immediately when needed. When an engine shuts off, the oil within it that had been protecting surfaces begins to drain away. Getting that film back takes time. For lubricants, this rapid engine cycling from off to on over and over again could present a problem, said Kapp. “Engines are going to be switching on and off at potentially every stop. Each time you do that, the bearings and everything else are going to go through a process of having to reestablish a lubricating film,” he said.

P H O T O CO U R T E S Y O F F O R D M O T O R CO M PA N Y

F+L Week in Singapore 5th Asia-Pacific Base Oil Conference March 7-8, 2011 17th Annual Fuels & Lubes Asia Conference March 9-11, 2011

Call for Papers THEME:

“Technology & Innovation: Creating More with Less” “Creating More with Less” underlines the issue of energy efficiency/savings on the agenda, as we all face the challenge of resource limitation and serious concerns about the environment. Hence, there is a need to explore all possible avenues to reach the goals/aspirations/ targets of energy savings in both the transportation and industrial sectors. Technology & innovation are the keys to success, as we move forward in the transition from the traditional mobile sources of energy to new and renewable forms of energy. Partnership and collaboration can help to deliver more efficient solutions. The SAE F&L Council’s Steering Committee for Asia will meet during F+L Week to try to establish a more structured form of collaboration among all key stakeholders in Asia-Pacific.

How to present a paper If you are interested in making an oral presentation, you may propose a 500-word abstract by sending an e-mail to editor@ fuelsandlubes.com no later than August 31, 2010. Your abstract will be reviewed by our conference advisory board. If your paper is among those selected for oral presentation, you will receive an e-mail notification no later than September 30, 2010.

For more details, visit our website at www.fuelsandlubes.com.

Time for an

oilc

Advanced generation of PAG shows promise for engine oil formulations by Hank Hogan

For automakers, it may be time for an oil change, that is, a base fluid change. At least, thatâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s the hope of Dow Chemical Co., the Midland, Michigan-based chemical giant with operations across the globe. The company could be right, if its new product performs as promised.

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hang

FE AT U R E

OW HAS RECENTLY INTRODUCED AN oil-soluble polyalkylene glycol (OSP). The company calls it an advanced generation polyalkylene glycol (PAG) because of its compatibility with mineral oils and other synthetic base fluids. The new formulation raises the possibility of using it as a primary base fluid, which would make it an expensive formulation, as a co-fluid similar to poly alpha olefins (PAOs) and Group III base oils, or as an additive for automotive and industrial lubricant applications. Doing so could pay dividends. Dow says the OSP can provide improved deposit control, oxidation stability and lowtemperature stability to the fully formulated product. “At similar viscosity to mineral oil or other components, we can provide benefits in lubricity,” said Chuck Carn, global strategic marketing manager for Dow’s lubricant business. “In addition, we can provide excellent wear and engine protection at lower viscosities, compared to higher viscosity products from mineral oil formulations.” “That is what drives fuel efficiency,” said Carn. Another benefit of OSP is that it can offer better deposit control and shear stability. Together, these properties can lengthen oil drain intervals, potentially allowing them to stretch into tens of thousands of kilometers. That would allow drivers to change engine oil on a yearly or even longer basis, instead of only months between oil changes. Better fuel efficiency and longer drain intervals are attractive to car manufacturers. These benefits could explain why an alternative base fluid to what is currently available would be of interest to automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). “It is quite clear, that, when automotive OEMs push this alternative, especially here in Europe, they may have been attracted by intrinsic properties and also have technical reasons,” said Mathias Woydt. Woydt is head of the working group for friction and wear test methods, as well as component tribology, at Berlin-based Federal Institute for Materials Research and Testing or BAM. He has done extensive work on polyglycol lubricants, looking at such things as their interaction with biofuels and their performance in other situations. He has also examined their ecological and toxicological properties. In general, he has found these alternatives to be as good as or better than traditional oils.

automotive engine oil applications. It also has lead customers to ask Dow to create PAGs without this particular drawback. How did Dow solve this problem? Martin Greaves, a lubricants research leader at Dow, gave some hints at the Annual Meeting of the Society of Tribologists and Lubrication Engineers (STLE) in Las Vegas, Nevada, in May. Increasing the carbon-to-oxygen ratio improves PAG oil solubility, he said, which can be achieved by beginning the PAG synthesis with a styrene or a higher alpha-olefin oxide. Both have a higher carbon-to-oxygen ratio than ethylene or propylene oxide. While not wanting to reveal the secret sauce behind the OSP formulation, Greaves was more than happy to discuss the results. “We have now, for the first time, a new product family that can be used for the automotive market,” he said. “It opens up the application envelope of polyalkylene glycols,” he added. Achieving oil miscibility is not without its price, though. Greaves reported that increasing the carbon-to“Time for an Oil Change” continued on page 39 >>

Chuck Carn

Changing ratios

PAGs have been used for years as long-life lubricants in heavy-duty industrial gears and similar applications. Traditionally, they are synthesized from ethylene or propylene oxides. These products offered a high viscosity index and excellent cleanliness. However, those benefits came with either no or, at best poor, oil miscibility. That made these PAGs unsuitable for

Photos courtesy of The Dow Chemical Co.

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Biotribology helps improve human lives by Kelly Thornton

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AFTER VISITS WITH ORTHOPEDIC SURGEONS all over Asia and Europe, Ian Clarke used to dread the flight home to Los Angeles, Calif. The strange metal balls clanging inside his luggage could be construed as bombs by airport customs officials. Actually they are bloody cobalt-chrome alloy implants surgically removed from hipreplacement patients. Clarke, a consultant for Donaldson Arthritis Research Foundation in Colton, Calif., now transports the balls in his carry-on bag for easy inspection. And he carries a letter that explains what they are and that he collects them from surgeons for analysis in his lab. What the letter doesn’t say is that Clarke is a renowned researcher on the cutting edge of biotribology, the obscure science of friction, wear and lubrication of interacting surfaces in the body, such as a ball and socket hip joint. He is trying to extend the life of artificial hips by figuring out why a small percentage of some implants fail due to wear problems and others don’t. Failure analysis of retrieved implants is the surest way to figure out what is going on, but is slow and delicate work. “We don’t have a filter, we can’t change the lube, we can’t bring the patient in for 6,000-mile services,” Clarke said, “so we are stuck with the wear debris in the joint. Looking ahead, we are not good at anticipating how big any adverse wear problem could be [of failed artificial hips]. It’s like the oil spill coming into Florida, we anticipate that it can be really bad, we just don’t know what the outcome will be.” The solution is sure to come from biotribology, part of the larger field of tribology which is usually associated with the control of friction and wear in mechanical systems. But it’s now being applied to the most advanced of machines—the human body. Biotribology has become prominent in recent years as a new field that involves the collaboration of medical doctors, biologists and chemists, as well as engineers and physicists. Scientists say it’s becoming increasingly important to combine these disciplines and to apply tribological principles in order to discover innovations for long-lasting joint replacements and other biological problems. Besides bones and muscles, the body has many other parts in constant motion. Think hearts pumping and eyes

blinking, to name a few. And the body has its own lubricants, like tears and synovial joint fluid. Biotribologists must understand these functions as fully as their counterparts in engineering understand oil in cars and other machines. It’s a growing field, with at least 20 university programs—almost double the number that existed 10 years ago—and about a dozen professional organizations worldwide, with thousands of members. “People are beginning to realize the kinds of things you can do with the principles of tribology,” said Ed Salek, executive director of the Society of Tribologists and Lubrication Engineers (STLE), an international organization based in a suburb of Chicago. “This is very much a technology that a few people do but has broad applications.” Tribology is addressing many of the world’s most pressing medical and environmental issues—from hip replacements, heart valves, corneal transplants and dentistry to renewable energy, harmful emissions, biofuels and green lubrication for cars and machinery. There are tribologists studying ways to improve everything from eye and heart-pump lubrication and dental implants to the performance of the space shuttle, the United States’ nuclear arsenal and windmills for clean energy. Just in the last five years, innovations by biotribologists have already made tremendous strides pioneering new materials and prolonging the lives of, or improving the quality of life for, millions of patients around the world. In hip replacement, where much attention is focused, Clarke is eager to point out that problems occur in only a small fraction of the hundreds of thousands of surgeries performed annually in the U.S. Estimates vary between less than one percent and up to five percent. Today’s most common artificial hip joint is a cobalt-chrome alloy ball that fits into a socket made from plastic called polyethylene. During surgery, the ball is anchored to the femur and the socket to the pelvic bone with bone cement. Researchers are also studying artificial hips consisting of the cobalt-chrome alloy ball and socket (metal-on-metal) and an alumina ceramic ball and socket (ceramic-on-ceramic), and various combinations of all those materials. Each has advantages and drawbacks. Clarke’s work in biotribology has become even more important amid recent controversy over the metal-onmetal variety of implants. In March, a U.S. firm warned

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Set-up in hip simulator: test set-up, left; cup adaptor and ball visible in serum, right.

doctors that its metal-on-metal device appears to have a high failure rate in some patients and said it was discontinuing the device because of declining sales. After a story about this ran in the New York Times in March, Clarke said hip-replacement patients were flocking to their doctors to voice their fears. Clarke said that problems with hip replacements are quite rare, about a tenth of a percent. So [when] one center reported five percent problem with metal-on-metal, “that’s getting quite worrisome, especially if we can’t tell you why the lubricant’s breaking down… Something is triggering an abnormal wear event in these bearings. We just don’t know if it’s a lubrication problem or a design problem.” Friction between the metal ball and cup sometimes turns the lubricant black, which in turn causes a biological reaction. Millions of tiny submicron particles are shed from artificial joints even in a successful bearing. But in a small fraction of patients, the particles kill cells and as a result, damage the bone holding the implant. It can cause severe inflammation in some patients, damaging muscles and other soft

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tissues and requiring the joint to be replaced much earlier than the 15-plus years the hips are supposed to last. Clarke is now testing possible solutions in his lab on behalf of a South African company that has coated the metal balls with a thin layer of a diamond material, which could solve the problem by preventing the tiny metal particles from contaminating the body. “Diamonds have a super hard reputation for not wearing. If it works it will change the face of the industry.” During testing, Clarke uses a simulator machine with synchronized joint motions and loading around the clock for about six months to simulate the millions of steps a person takes over the life of a joint. He declined to discuss the diamond hip results so far, citing a confidentiality agreement with the South Ian Clarke African company. Even if the diamond coating is a success, it would be up to a decade before it could win U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approvals. The diamond coating is rumored to be part of clinical trials now underway in Europe, Clarke said. Hip transplants may be the hottest topic at the moment, but there are sev-

eral other biological problems being addressed by biotribologists, such as heart pumps, dental implants and the role of friction from contact lenses and dry-eye syndrome on inflammation in the corneal cells. Ocular biotribologists are studying the eye’s natural lubricant—tears— and the mechanics of blinking so they can create better artificial tears and contact lens materials and treat symptoms associated with contact lens irritation and dry-eye syndrome. Unlike the saline drops most contact lens wearers are using, natural tears are a complex combination of three layers of substances— essentially oil, water and mucus. That makes it hard for scientists to duplicate. For someone suffering endstage heart failure, researchers are working on ways to prolong the life of a mechanical blood pump, which is a life-saving device that keeps blood flowing from the left ventricle, the main pumping chamber of the heart, to the aorta, the body’s main artery, to the rest of the body. The problem is that the current pumps known as LVADs (Left Ventricular Assist Device) last only two to three years because the lubricant used on their tiny bearings stops working. Biotribologists at Thoratec Corp. have developed the HeartMate II,

a sort of “bionic heart” capable of pumping 10 liters of blood per minute, much like a real heart, according to the company’s website. The device provides blood flow through the circulatory system on a continuous basis with only one moving part. They are the only devices approved by the U.S. FDA to be used as both a temporary help for heart transplant candidates, as well as a longer-term fix for those who, for various reasons, are not eligible for transplant, and need the product to prolong life, the website said. The HeartMate II “is designed to have a much longer functional life” than previous generations of devices, operates “more simply and quietly,” is smaller and easier to implant, the website said. No one can predict the HeartMate II’s life expectancy. So far, it has been proven to operate for at least two years and might run as long as five or more. They are a couple of years into clinical studies. Biotribologists are also investigat-

ing the best materials for artificial teeth that would eventually match the wear rate of human enamel. Researchers have been looking at titanium, but titanium has some drawbacks, such as failing to stick properly, discoloring or deforming. So far, gold alloy looks promising for wear resistance.

“Tribology has had a huge impact on the quality of human life.” The applications for tribology are seemingly endless. The same science that is driving innovation with hip replacements and corneal lubrication may also make oil-free machinery and zero-wear a reality in the future. Most of all, tribology is improving lives. There are challenges facing the field. Xiaobin Lu of Varel International in Carrollton, Texas, said it’s important that tribologists take a comprehensive approach to solving problems, rather than narrowly looking at one

aspect of a problem, like the bearing or the seal or the lubricant. Also, not all seemingly great ideas work, because sometimes lab results in academia can’t be confirmed in the industrial setting. “That’s why you see over the years so many bright ideas come out, but not many have been put into industry application,” Lu said. “The industry is facing new ideas, but it’s hard to put into reality either because of cost or because verification of the academic result wasn’t happening in the real field.” But there have been big strides despite challenges. “Tribology has had a huge impact on the quality of human life,” said Hong Liang, engineering professor at Texas A&M University. “Even five years ago, a hip implant would last a maximum of 10 years. Now it’s 20 years, and in the future it will be 40 years. Texas and California are considered hubs for biotribology. “The joints have improved dramatically because of [greater] understanding of tribology.”

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FE AT U R E

JUDGMENT

DAY SELF-REPAIRING SYSTEMS: FROM SCIENCE FICTION TO THE LAB by Phillip Britt

In Terminator 2: Judgment Day, the T-1000 terminator, played by Robert Patrick, could be shot, cut, burned, even frozen and shattered, but his liquid metal composition would allow him to heal as if no damage had ever been done. In a more current-day scenario, imagine a fighter jet’s engine tank getting shot and the system repairing itself—it keeps flying rather than crashing. Though the idea of self-healing/self-repairing systems have been discussed for 10 years or more (Terminator 2 was a 1991 movie), the idea of a quickly self-sealing fuel tank is just like the T-1000 terminator or the long-talked about idea of artificial intelligence— it’s nothing more than science fiction, according to Stephen Hsu, professor of engineering and applied science at George Washington University in Washington, D.C., and a world-renowned tribologist. >>

I L LU S T R AT I O N BY N I Ñ O M A N A L I L I /C H I L I D O G S

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ELF-REPAIRING SYSTEMS would not be possible today without nanotechnology, said Hsu at a talk during the Annual Meeting of the Society of Tribologists and Lubrication Engineers (STLE) in Las Vegas, Nevada, in May. “Nanotechnology funding and programs provide the instrument, know-how, and facility (clean room, nanoparticle manipulation tools) that enable the ability to create technology using nanoparticles, encapsulation, molecular engineering, etc.,” Hsu said. “Without these developments, self-repair will not be possible.” Nanotechnology enables firms to probe, understand, visualize and observe many tribology interface events from molecular or nanoparticle perspective, Hsu said. The understanding provides opportunity to move the technology to a different level. However, he also believes that there “are a lot of ‘wow’ claims, but most of them don’t hold water.” The example above of a self-healing jet engine has the “wow” factor, as Hsu said, but there are more practical business applications that could lead to more actual development of self-healing systems that work on a continual basis. Hsu points to the growth of wind farms in many rural areas in the U.S. and other countries. The most popular wind turbines produce 1.5 megawatts, stand 200 meters tall and have blades that weigh 25,000 pounds. If one of the internal blades is damaged, the owner has to send a repair truck and crew out to the remote area, use a sky hook to remove the top of the windmill—which weighs 6,000 pounds itself—lower it to the ground, find the damage, make the repair, raise the unit back to the top and reattach it before it can be producing power again. Needless to say, the procedure is very costly. Repair costs are one of the major reasons that wind

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power still provides only a miniscule portion of energy needs in the U.S. today, according to Hsu. But if selfhealing polymers can be added to the systems to enable them to be self-repairing when there are breaks, it would change the economic dynamics of wind power. With the calls for more clean energy, heightened recently by the BP oil spill in Louisiana, there is increasing interest in this type of self-healing solution, Hsu said. Yet the actual ability to do such a thing is still three to five years away, according to Hsu. “You can’t even say the field itself is in its embryonic stages. It hasn’t been born yet.” Seong Kim, associate professor at Penn State University’s chemical engineering department, believes that the technology is a little further along. He believes that self-repairing systems have entered the laboratory or experimental stage, though he could not estimate how long it would be before there would be practical applications. The idea for self-healing systems came not from the Terminator 2 movie, but from nature, where wounds, cuts, etc., heal themselves over time, Kim said. Of course, to have practical applications for mechanical applications, such systems would have to self-heal more quickly than a wound or a cut. “We want to be able to mimic what mother nature does,” Kim said, such as animals that regenerate their arms like lobsters and starfish and their tails like lizards to name a few. “It would be really nice for an engineering system to do the same thing when there is damage.” There are two basic types of self-repair systems in the experimental stage in the laboratory, according to Kim.

Stephen Hsu

Seong Kim

“We want to be able to mimic what mother nature does.” There are chemicals that can harden quickly when exposed to air, much like certain types of glue. One system is to use them as additives to fuels or lubricants that are in motion, as in an engine. The second system is to have them on the surface of the fuel tank or other system to be protected, then to use lateral flow or diffusion of the chemicals to move in to seal a crack when it occurs. Depending on the chemicals used, the hardening can take anywhere from minutes to hours. If these chemicals can be successfully added to fuel, then they can theoretically fill and harden—a reaction started by contact with air—when they come across a damaged surface, such as a hole in the fuel tank. But an instantaneous seal is still the stuff of science fiction. The seal would take time to solidify. Another challenge is that such chemicals would change the composition of the fuel, so there are emissions considerations, Kim said.

Other lubricants/sealants work well in certain conditions, but not so well in others. For example, graphite works well at sea level, but is very hard to work with at high altitudes due to the lack of humidity. “No one material works well in all environments,” Kim said. Experiments are being done with materials, consisting of a combination of chemicals, each of which work in different environments, he said. In the fuel tank example above, the chemical is flowing though the tank along with the rest of the fuel, enabling it to reach the damage. In mechanical applications where there isn’t the constant cycling of material, the sealant would rely on lateral flow to reach the damaged area. Kim said this would work much like perfluoropolyether (PFPE) lubricants used on hard drives of computers, which would contain both a bound component to protect against wear resistance and a mobile component allowing for lateral flow. For example, lubricant using both bound and mobile components was tested on a silicon oxide surface. The lubricant was 3 to 4 nanometers thick. The lubricant needed 30 to 40 seconds to flow into a track about 50 micrometers wide. The emissions problem makes the lubricant impractical for fuel tanks, according to Kim. But in mechanical applications, such as in wind turbines, the lubricant could have practical and economical applications. Still, most of those applications are still some years away and even then, the self-healing properties displayed in Terminator 2: Judgment Day will remain in the realm of science fiction.

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Emission Standards for New Light-Duty Vehicles* COUNTRY European Union Hong Kong, China South Korea Chinaa Chinac Taipei, China Singaporea Singaporeb India Indiad Thailand Malaysia Philippines Vietnam Indonesia Bangladesha Bangladeshb Pakistan Sri Lanka Nepal

95 96 97 98 E1 Euro 2 Euro 1 Euro 2

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Euro 4

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Euro 4 Euro 4

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*The level of adoption vary by country but most are based on the Euro emission standards Italics – under discussion; a – gasoline; b – diesel; c – Beijing [Euro 1 (Jan 1999); Euro 2 (Aug 2002); Euro 3 (2005); Euro 4 (1 Mar 2008); Euro 5 (2012)], Shanghai [Euro 1 (2000); Euro 2 (Mar 2003); Euro 3 (2007); Euro 4 (2010)] and Guangzhou [Euro 1 (Jan 2000); Euro 2 (Jul 2004); Euro 3 (Sep-Oct 2006); Euro 4 (2010)]; d – Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Hyderabad, Bangalore, Lucknow, Kanpur, Agra, Surat, Ahmedabad, Pune and Sholapur; e – US Tier 2 Bin is equivalent to Euro 4 emissions standards Source: CAI-Asia. June 2010. Emission standards for new light-duty vehicles

Current and Proposed Sulfur Levels in Diesel in Asia, EU and USA COUNTRY/CITY European Union Japanb Hong Kong, China United States South Korea Singapore Taipei, China Thailand China (metros)g China (nationwide) e,f India (metros) India (nationwide) Malaysia Philippines Sri Lanka Vietnam Indonesia Cambodia Bangladesh Pakistan

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500 500 500 500 3000 3000 2500 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 10000 10000 5000

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100

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a - under consideration/ discussion; uncertain; b = nationwide supply of 50 ppm commenced in 2003 and for 10 ppm in 2005 due to voluntary goals set by the oil industry; c = marketed; d = mandatory; e = voluntary standard of 500 ppm, however formal standard remains 2000 ppm, product in the market nationwide varies 500-1000 ppm; f = various fuel quality available; g = Beijing, Guangdong, Shanghai Source: CAI-Asia. 2010. Current and Proposed Sulfur Levels in Diesel in Asia, EU and USA

>> “Road Map” continued from page 14

developed countries suggests that moving to cleaner fuels and vehicles does not adversely affect the economy and, in fact, benefits the economy through better public health. Country-specific analysis on the financial and economic impact could help national governments show that the cost of inaction (public health impact of air pollution) truly outweighs the cost of taking action (mandating stricter standards). 38 F U E L S & L U B E S I N T E R N AT I O N A L Q u a r t e r T h r e e 2 010

Reducing emissions from motor vehicles in Asia requires an integrated approach which includes improving vehicle inspection and maintenance systems, transport planning and demand management, and promoting public transport and non-motorized transport. These parallel measures are needed; otherwise, the gains in reducing emissions from each vehicle through stricter standards could be offset by an increase in vehicle numbers and in vehicle-kilometers traveled.

Asia is experiencing an explosive growth in vehicles and as the turnover of the vehicle fleet takes 15 years, every year lost in introducing more stringent fuel quality and vehicle emissions standards has a compounding effect on air pollution from the transport sector. Faster introduction of more stringent standards is of utmost priority. The following also contributed to this article: Alvin Mejia, H. K. Parwana, Kaye Patdu, May Ajero, Mohammad Aqib, Ruwan Weerasooriya, Sudhir Gota, Shan Huang, Sophie Punte, Su Song, Thusitha Sugathapala, Vance Wagner, Yan Peng.

>> â&#x20AC;&#x153;Time for an Oil Changeâ&#x20AC;? cont. from page 29

oxygen ratio decreases the formulationâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s biodegradability and also reduces its load-carrying capacity. There are other parameters that are impacted, either for good or for bad, by the ratio change. In creating the new formulation, the polymer performance for these parameters had to be balanced against the application needs and the polymerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s structure. Performance check

The new PAG formulation comes in a variety of viscosities, ranging from 32 to 680 centistokes (cSt) as measured by ASTM D445 at 40oC. Tests showed that mixtures of the OSP are miscible with Group I, II and III paraffinic base oils, as well as with a leading PAO. Other studies done by the company showed that use of the new PAG as an additive could help maintain a low-friction coefficient. In his talk, Greaves presented results from a steel ball on steel disc minitraction machine test at a lubricant-aging 80oC. Measurements showed that the friction coefficient stayed around 0.1 for the duration of the 30-minute test

when the oil-soluble PAG was used as an additive to a PAO-based lubricant. That same test done on a lubricant without an additive showed a steadily rising amount of friction, with the coefficient moving from 0.1 to 0.3. Govind Khemchandani, a senior technical specialist in lubrication at Dow, noted that traditional PAG formulations have been used for years in turbomachinery applications. In part, thatâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s because doing so slows deposit formation substantially, allowing maintenance intervals to be lengthened. The reduction of sludge and varnish possible with PAG has, for example, allowed rotary screw air compressors to stretch their recommended service life from 2,000 to a minimum of 8,000 hours, he told the STLE Annual Meeting. In his talk, images of two sets of parts from screw air compressors showed a dramatic difference. Group I-III mineral oils produced a heavy sludge while those from Group IV or PAO yielded a hard yellow varnish. Using a mineral oil-based lubricant, deposits were easily visible after 2,000 hours of use. In constrast, the same parts from a turbo-machinery lubricated by an

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OSP, on the other hand, looked brand new after operating four times as long . The new oil-soluble PAG formulation appears to offer a similar performance as the other base fluids. That cleanliness could prove useful in automobiles, as it has in other applications, said Khemchandani. >>

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>> â&#x20AC;&#x153;When you upgrade the base oils or synthetic hydrocarbons, then this molecule will really help reduce the deposit formation.â&#x20AC;? Not yet available

OSP is currently just being evaluated by potential users. There are reportedly a dozen or so of the companyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s customers who are in various stages of evaluating the new product and incorporating it into their own offerings. When they might put OSPs in automotive engine oils, and how they might do so, is still unknown.

Even so, it likely will be years before OEMs call for the use of oil-soluble PAGs as one of the base fluids or even as an additive in engine oil formulations. In part, thatâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s because formulating and testing a new product is a lengthy process and usually coincides with the launch of a new engine oil specification... The response when the product was announced at the STLE Annual Meeting has been strong and has exceeded Dowâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s expectations. Even so, it likely will be years before OEMs call for the use of oilsoluble PAGs as one of the base fluids or even as an additive in engine oil formulations. In part, thatâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s because formulating and testing a new product is a lengthy process and usually coincides with the launch of a new engine oil specification, which is usually written to meet minimum or basic, i.e., not extreme, OEM requirements. Another reason is that product awareness still has to be built up. An early June check with a research group at a major U.S. car maker, for example, revealed some awareness, but not enough, first-hand knowledge to offer any comments, either positive or negative. There are those, however, who think the odds favor the new approach and a new participant in the market. BAMâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Woydt, for instance, noted that many of the current additive or synthetic market players are not in favor of polyglycols, including PAGs. Thus, Dowâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s entry into the market makes sense. The chemical company is a global

player and has extensive experience in the automotive industry. This also may be the right time for such an effort for two key reasons, said Woydt. â&#x20AC;&#x153;The functional profile is more or less assessed. Also, the problem-solving capabilities in meeting future fuel and ecological targets of polyglycol-based engine oils are known.â&#x20AC;? For his part, Carn acknowledged that any new entry into the market has to offer economic, as well as technical, advantages over whatâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s

Asia

currently available. He believes the new formulation meets both the cost and the technical requirements. However, he noted that, even with the promising results so far, more work still needs to be done. The company has a plan to accomplish that, he said in summing up the situation. â&#x20AC;&#x153;To really define the applicability, you have to get OSPs into formulations as a component of a polyalphaolefin or a mineral oil and weâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;re relying on our customer base to do that,â&#x20AC;? he said.

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