FUELSNews 360 - Q2 2013 by FUELSNews

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I N F O R M A T I O N

J U LY- S E P T E M B E R

Q3 2012 Executive Summary The third quarter of 2012 brought continued instability as many of the world’s largest economies struggled to stimulate growth and activity. Recent efforts by the U.S. and other countries to initiate stimulus programs, such as QE3 and Operation Twist, are still unfolding and results are not yet measurable. This uncertainty leaves analysts scratching their heads as to where the market will head in Q4. A dramatic market jump following the July 4th holiday in the United States brought oil prices to nearly $100/bbl by September. Higher prices were met with a decrease in demand, as U.S. oil demand dropped to its lowest level in over four years. U.S. exports of ULSD and gasoline increased in the third quarter, with the majority of products going to Latin America, Europe and Australia. Many countries around the world are finding new trade partners as oil embargoes on Iran continue to tighten around the country’s refusal to halt nuclear weapon plans. The September attack on the U.S. embassy in Libya furthered tensions throughout the Middle East and pressured prices upward. Food prices also surged in Q3 as the Midwestern United States experienced the worst drought in more than fifty years. Agricultural commodity prices rose sharply over the quarter on price rationing of extremely tight supply. A weaker U.S. dollar will also continue to push crude prices higher. With the U.S. presidential election just around the corner, all eyes are on Washington. Many analysts are waiting for November to predict where the fuels market will go from here. The too close to call U.S. election coupled with political unrest in the Middle East and unstable European financial markets makes a realistic projection or “view forward” at this point difficult. However, the following report summarizes the collective judgment of our supply team and industry analysts at large.

Index FUELSNews 360° Quarterly Report Q3 2012 FUELSNews 360°, published four times annually by Mansfield Energy Corp., analyzes and summarizes the prior quarter’s activity in the oil, natural gas and refined products industries. The purpose of this report is to provide industry market data, trends and reporting both domestically and globally as well as provide insight into upcoming challenges facing the energy supply chain.

4 5 6

Price Forward Thoughts 15 16 17

July 2012 through September 2012 Third Quarter Summary

Commentaries; Andy and Sara Commentaries; Elizabeth and Dan Commentaries; Hannah, Jorge and Scott

International 6 7 8

Overview

Price Forward Thoughts Europe, Middle East, China Brazil, OPEC

18 21 23 25 27 28 30

Domestic 9 10 11 12 13

Economic Drivers; QE3, Economic Drivers; PPI, CPI, GDP Fundamentals; U.S. Demand, Crude Oil Inventories Fundamentals; U.S. Refinery Production, Days of Supply Fundamentals; U.S. Refinery Inputs Crude Oil Imports

Regional View

Alternative Products 31 33

PADD 1, A Northeast PADD 1, B Southeast PADD 2, Midwest PADD 3, Gulf Coast PADD 4, Rocky Mountains PADD 5, West Coast, AK and HI Canada

Natural Gas Renewable Fuels

FUELSNews 360˚ Supply Team

Overview July 2012 through September 2012 Following the July 4th holiday, the market took off like a rocket. Crude alone went from $83.75 to $99.00 before the end of September.

Third Quarter 2012

92.19

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

ÂŠ 2012 Mansfield Energy Corp.

Overview Third Quarter Summary Heating Oil (red), RBOB gas (green), Crude (white), and the DOW (purple) all increased over the quarter. Several market indicators showed positive results including jobless claims and home sales. The domestic policies meant to stimulate the economy may have also contributed to positive feelings to the future. However, international conﬂicts raised supply concerns including the continued tensions in the Middle East, all ultimately driving the market up higher throughout the quarter.

Summary, Third Quarter, 2012 334.20 316.94

92.19

13437.13 *Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

International Price Forward Thoughts The global economy continues to be in crisis mode, and as a result, many of the biggest economies continue to struggle. Despite high speculation of quantitative easing and stimulus strategies to spur economic growth, the harsh reality is that demand is extremely weak. As consumers and businesses are cautious on spending, fuel and food prices continue to increase rapidly. Though there have been recent efforts by the U.S. and other countries to initiate stimulus programs, such as QE3 and Operation Twist, results are still unfolding and are not yet measurable. This uncertainty increases analysts' concerns as to where the market will head in Q4. Operation Twist was intended to lower long-term interest rates, thus stimulating growth by selling short-term bonds and utilizing those proceeds to buy back longer-term bonds. Europe continues to seek solutions to their debt crisis and Asia’s economic growth continues to decline as countries cut back on Asian imports, while the chaos in the Middle East is far from over as Iran’s oil embargo is still in effect and violence in Libya and Syria prevails. The following economies and organizations were the most imperative to the oil industry, as their economic reports often resulted in market drivers during the last quarter.

“ Though some countries, including the United States, introduced economic strategies like Operation Twist and QE3 to stimulate local economies, results are not yet measurable.”

Europe

Following a bailout in Spain and with Greece’s on-going struggles, numerous meetings regarding the European debt crisis have been futile. In fact, the Eurozone’s weaknesses have evolved over time and now affect their biggest and most important economy, Germany. Though Germany has managed to keep its head above the water thus far, recent economic reports suggest Germany is suffering from the regional recession. Despite their historical economic strength, weaknesses in the labor sector, the manufacturing sector and ﬁnancial sector have ﬁnally caught up to them. During the next quarter, we will watch for a Eurozone response to the introduction of QE3 by the United States to stimulate economic growth.

Middle East

Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East made headlines throughout the third quarter of 2012. After numerous warnings to cease their nuclear program and adhere to international policies, Iran’s financial and oil sanctions remain in effect, while on-going Libyan conflicts and the September attack on the U.S. embassy increased concerns about the instability of the region. Uncertainty over the continuing turmoil has exacerbated fears resulting in supply disruptions and possible military action.

China

After constant growth over the last ten years, China’s economy has slowed in 2012. With an average growth rate of 10% over the last decade, the current economic crisis directly impacted the world’s second largest economy. In fact, despite projections for continuing the 10% growth trend in 2012, China’s economy has actually grown at a 7.8% rate so far this year. With analysts pointing out weak global demand for Chinese goods, a drop in manufacturing rates and an increase in production prices, China’s energy consumption levels have also been affected by the global crisis and continue to underperform in comparison to prognostics made in early 2012.

Source: EIA 7

However, despite the current slowdown, the EIA points out that China could become the world’s largest liquid and oil importer by 2013, representing an estimated 64% of total world demand. Currently, China ranks second in both categories behind the United States.

Brazil

Inﬂation rate forecasts for this year were recently increased to 5.2% in comparison to 4.7% in June, as the increase in food prices and personal expenditures was evident in the third quarter. With the economy moving at a slower pace than initially predicted, growth rates for 2012 have also been reduced during the third quarter from 2.5% to 1.6%. However, economic leaders expect the world’s second largest emerging market to show better results in the near future, with hints of positive metrics coming from economic reports like the Consumer Conﬁdence Report and Retail Sales Report over the past two months.

OPEC

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has shown interesting metrics during the third quarter of 2012. OPEC, which currently supplies 40% of the world’s oil, reported a surplus in production during July and August. After agreeing to production levels of 30 MB/d, July’s production levels reached 31.16 MB/d, while August levels reached 31.41 MB/d. According to OPEC, the surplus in production is due to an increase in production in Angola, Nigeria, Libya and Saudi Arabia, while Iraq retained its position as the group’s second largest producer. Additionally, due to the current oil embargo, reports suggest Iran’s oil production decreased by 13,000 bbl/d to 2.77 MB/d despite Iranian official reports reflecting a 3.75 MB/d output. However, due to the surge in crude oil prices over the third quarter, OPEC basket prices reflect a surge in prices, most evident between July and August.

OPEC Basket Price

OPEC Established in 1965, consisting of 12 member countries and headquartered in Vienna; Goal of organization is to ensure oil output and prices remain stable globally. Currently, OPEC members include: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela.

Source: OPEC

Domestic

Economic Drivers

The U.S. continues to be proactive in ďŹ nding a solution to the current global crisis. With important sectors like housing, labor and manufacturing still struggling, the U.S. recognizes their economy remains weak and has considered numerous stimulus strategies. As fuel prices continued their upward trend through the third quarter, so did food prices. In fact, the Midwest drought affected the agricultural sector more than expected, causing a surge in corn prices, food prices, and ultimately fuel prices. As a result, some of the following economic reports were directly affected and forced the U.S. Federal Reserve to unveil a new round of quantitative easing, QE3.

QE3 QE3 is a $40 billion per month mortgage-backed securities buy-back program introduced by the U.S. Federal Reserve on September 13, 2012 to stimulate economic growth. Though it is uncertain whether QE3 will be successful, it is fair to say that the U.S. government is aware of the current crisis and is searching for a solution to the problem, with Operation Twist and QE3 expected to work side-by-side through the end of the year. However, because QE3 was introduced at the very end of the third quarter, some indexes and metrics will be slightly inďŹ&#x201A;uenced by the stimulus plan.

QE3 is a $40 billion per month mortgage-backed securities buyback program introduced by the U.S. Federal Reserve on September 13, 2012. 9

ÂŠ 2012 Mansfield Energy Corp.

Domestic

Economic Drivers

“Third quarter growth expectations are unfavorable, especially in comparison to the last quarter of 2011 and ﬁrst quarter of 2012 where GDP increased by 4.1% and 2.0%, respectively.”

PPI Producer Price Index rose as production prices continued their upward trend during the third quarter of 2012. Mainly due to a surge in fuel and food prices, production prices reached an astonishing 1.7% increase in August 2012 following a 0.3% increase in July, with food prices increasing 0.9% and energy prices increasing 6.4%.

CPI Closely related to production prices, the Consumer Price Index increased during the third quarter of 2012. Once again, the difference maker seemed to be the increase in food and energy prices, as gas prices increased 9.0% during the month of August, while food prices increased by 0.2%, leaving consumers with less spending money in their wallets. Mainly due to a surge in fuel and food prices, production prices reached an astonishing 1.7% increase in August 2012 following a 0.3% in July, with food prices increasing 0.9% and energy prices increasing 6.4%.

GDP Gross Domestic Product, the output of goods and services produced by labor and property, was revised by the U.S. Department of Commerce last quarter to reﬂect reduced expectations for growth during the third quarter. The second quarter’s Real GDP was reduced to 1.7% growth, while the third quarter’s expectations were reduced to 1.3% growth despite previous forecasts of 1.7% growth. The growth expectations are unfavorable, especially in comparison to the last quarter of 2011 and this year’s ﬁrst quarter, where GDP increased by 4.1% and 2.0%, respectively. 10

Fundamentals U.S. Demand Mainly due to the current economic crisis, crude oil demand reached the lowest level since September of 2008. In fact, oil demand dropped 2.7% to 18.062 MB/d during the month of July, the peak of the summer driving season.

Crude Oil Inventories As shown on Graph 1, crude oil stocks remain above historical limits. In fact, despite the usual downward production trend at the end of the summer, crude inventories reached 364.7 MB/d during the end of September, an estimated 28.4 MB/d above 2011â&#x20AC;&#x2122;s level.

Monthly U.S. Ending Stocks Excluding SPR of Crude Oil (Million Barrels) Graph 1

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration based on Bloomberg, L.P.

ÂŠ 2012 Mansfield Energy Corp.

Fundamentals U.S. Refinery Production As shown on Graph 2, U.S. crude production remains above the 5-year average. With domestic production still running at high levels, crude stocks remained above their historical levels in third quarter.

Crude Oil Domestic Production (Million Barrels) Graph 2

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration based on Bloomberg, L.P.

Days of Supply As shown on Graph 3, the Days of Supply (DOS) average remained above the 5-year average. Despite the drop in August, the increase in DOS was mainly caused by the increase in production and crude oil imports.

Monthly U.S. Days of Supply Crude Oil Excluding SPR (Million Barrels) Graph 3

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration based on Bloomberg, L.P. 12

ÂŠ 2012 Mansfield Energy Corp.

Fundamentals U.S. Refinery Inputs As portrayed on Graph 4, reﬁner net input remained relatively constant during the third quarter of 2012. Compared to the yearly average of 14.9 MB/d, the third quarter’s average was slightly elevated at 15.2 MB/d. However, in comparison to the 5-year average, reﬁner input remains at a normal level.

U.S. Weekly Refiner Net Inputs of Crude Oil (Million Barrels) Graph 4

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration based on Bloomberg, L.P.

Crude Imports As the U.S. continues to produce more, the reduction in imports is more evident over time. As seen on Graph 5, out of the third quarter, imports in July and August remained low in comparison to the 5-year average. As for September, imports increased due to supply disruptions caused by Hurricane Isaac.

Monthly U.S. Crude Oil Imports Excluding SPR (Million Barrels) Graph 5

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration based on Bloomberg, L.P.

Price Forward Thoughts Bullish Bearish Neutral

Bloomberg’s collection of analysts’ predictions for crude prices is listed below. The pie chart represents quarterly projections and the table displays data by quarter for the next four quarters.

WTI – Crude

NAT GAS – Henry HUB

FUELSNews 360˚ Commentaries Andy’s Answer

Sara’s Synopsis

BEAR

For the short-term, my thought is that we are range-bound while we listen to the political garble both domestically and internationally. If I had to pick any direction in the short-term, I would say we have a better chance of being lower during the next quarter, but as we enter the winter months we may make some of that ground back if the weather is especially cold. Domestically, the U.S. economy appears to be hanging on better than the European economy, which can be a drag for our situation. U.S. jobless claims began to slow, but I think it’s important to note that many individuals have just readjusted their lifestyles to survive on less given they have exhausted their unemployment beneﬁts. In short, I believe we are in a rather seasonal range-bound transition for now barring any major events.

With the Presidential election looming, I remain market neutral for the remainder of 2012. The slightly weaker dollar hit a four-month low against the Euro and encouraged commodity buying. In fact, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) just released numbers stating that historically there has never been more money on the buy side of oil at this time of the year. Even as the Federal Reserve made a decision on a third round of quantitative easing, speculative dollars continued to bet on higher crude prices. Protests and continued violence in the Middle East supports concerns and gives the market a bullish tendency. Further, both the U.S. and Israel are in full agreement on preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. All of these issues could point toward higher prices. However, slow economic growth continues to plague the U.S. Consumer spending stalled in August and according to the S&P 500 Index, business activity unexpectedly contracted in September. As for Europe and the Euro, unemployment amongst 17 nations was 11.4% in August, and the European Central Bank said they expect the Euroarea economy to shrink .4% in 2012. In addition, a Bloomberg survey stated that 46% of analysts (13 of 28) forecast that crude will decrease in the short-term. Finally, North Dakota and Texas moved U.S. crude production to the highest level in 25 years. All of this push and pull between speculative money, geo-politics, economic factors, and supply make it difﬁcult to be married to a bullish or bearish position.

FUELSNews 360˚ Commentaries Elizabeth’s Exchange

BEAR

Dan’s Dissertation

Over the next quarter, I feel the market will decline - especially gas, by looking at backwardation. But, if you look at what the market did on the last day of the September, futures were at one point up 40 cents per gallon, further showing that the market can do anything. The market can go either way over the next few months, particularly with the winter months approaching and an increased demand on diesel. I think overall the market will be bullish over most of the next quarter, but will decline rapidly at the end of the year. All of this could quickly change if the winter months are far warmer again this year as it was last year, which is currently being predicted again.

Despite overall weak fundamentals for oil, quantitative easing from federal governments and a tight supply side will dictate higher prices through the end of the year. From the Financial Times article The Fed, Quantitative Easing and Oil Prices by Javier Blas: BULL

I recently sat down with a senior official from a medium-sized OPEC country, with decades of experience in the oil market, who offered an interesting point of view about the role of the Fed in setting oil prices. He explained that his country already has significant foreign exchange reserves, mostly invested in low yielding U.S. treasuries, and current oil prices were high enough to both meet budgetary needs and further inflate the reserves. “I know the U.S. and the Europeans would like us to increase production,” he told me. “But what is the point? We would earn more money; money we do not need. And U.S. interest rates are so low that we earn nothing from our extra production. It is better for us to keep production unchanged and keep the money underground.” That is an interesting take on federal government’s financial “easing” and its effect on oil supply. As Blas goes on to explain, “In short, the opportunity cost of not producing oil has fallen dramatically. Thus, policy makers feel little pressure to increase production to lower oil prices.” With prompt month WTI closing at $92.19 per bbl and Brent crude settling at $112.39 per bbl on September 28th, in the moderate to long-term, I am bullish.

FUELSNews 360˚ Commentaries Hannah’s Hunch

Jorge Pradilla’s Predictions

BEAR

BULL

Scott’s Sixth Sense BULL

With the futures market holding speculative net long positions and the Euro continuing to falter, I think we’re going to have a difﬁcult time supporting these levels, let alone taking it higher. Barring any incendiary news out of the Mideast, I’m slightly bearish for fourth quarter and anticipate crude ﬁnding some support between $80-85.

Looking back, some of my predictions for the third quarter were fairly accurate. As I projected, the global economic crisis is still far from over, while the conﬂict between Iran and the United Nations did in fact escalate to multiple sanctions against Iran. As for the fourth quarter of 2012, I see the market being slightly bullish, at least until the dust settles. In my opinion, the market continues to be susceptible to geopolitical events and economics, with the Middle East conﬂict intensifying every day and with the world’s largest economies underperforming during 2012. However, I will be interested to see how the U.S. dollar performs in comparison to other currencies. With the Fed’s recent adoption of QE3, the dollar is expected to gain strength over Q4, which would cause downward pressure on energy prices. For this reason, I expect crude prices to remain volatile, but ultimately slightly more bullish in the long-term.

Although Canada’s economy has weathered the world economic crisis signiﬁcantly better than Europe and the U.S., they continue to be plagued with slow growth. Canadian housing prices, with the exception of the overheated Vancouver market, continue to edge up, supported by record low interest rates, and relatively solid employment numbers. The Composite House Price Index, which measures price changes for repeat sales of single-family homes, was up in July by 4.8% from a year earlier. The Canadian unemployment rate has hovered between 7.2% and 7.3% for the past 3 months. The gaps in the Canadian economy tend to be very regional, with Western Canada in particular and oil rich Alberta showing signiﬁcant strength, while manufacturing-based Eastern Canada has struggled with higher unemployment and a high Canadian dollar. The Canadian economy, due to its size and place in the world order, tends to be affected by what is happening in other markets, particularly in its largest trading partner, the United States. However, “slow and steady wins the race,” whereby the prediction for growth remains, just under 2% for the remainder of 2012 and 2013, at 1.8% and 1.9%, respectively. 17

Regional View Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts

PADD 1 A Northeast

The Northeast PADD has been a very busy area during the last quarter. Sunoco and the Carlyle Group completed the formation of a joint venture known as Philadelphia Energy Solutions (PES). This joint venture will operate the Philadelphia refinery which is able to process 330,000 bbl/d of crude into a multitude of refined products. The Carlyle Group in the joint venture will hold controlling interest and will also oversee all day-to-day operations of not only the joint venture, but also for the refinery. Sunoco will retain a 33% non-operating minority interest. A formal ceremony was held on September 19th that was attended by elected officials, labor and business leaders, and hundreds of refinery employees. Through this joint venture, 850 employees were able to keep their jobs. Pennsylvania will invest a large amount of money to make upgrades needed to the refinery for environmental gains and to be able to use other non-imported fuels.

PADD 1 A Northeast “The reﬁnery is expected to increase the daily total of available barrels in the Northeast by 80,000 bbl/d of gasoline and 30,000 bbl/d of diesel.”

Although the merger of Sunoco and Energy Transfer Partners will be finalized by the end of the year, most oil traders were split into two teams until mid-September. PES will not only have the refinery workers, but also 32 employees that will transfer from Sunoco’s trading and supply team. PES traders will trade for the Philadelphia refinery while other employees who were previously Sunoco traders will not trade under the name ETP/Sunoco. These employees will trade for Sunoco branded retail. Both of the companies will post daily prices at the rack for jobbers in the market.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Delta Airlines, slightly behind schedule, began the restart of its newly bought refinery in Trainer, PA. They originally stated that the refinery would be up and running by the end of September, however this has not changed the mindset of any Northeast traders in terms of playing it safe. Traders want to see the Phillips 66 refinery selling products from the Trainer refinery. Phillips 66 has an off-take agreement with Delta to off-sell products from the refinery. The refinery is expected to increase the daily total of available barrels in the Northeast by 80,000 bbl/d of gasoline and 30,000 bbl/d of diesel. Jet fuels will also be of key importance to this refinery for Delta. They are hoping to have 50,000 bbl/d of jet fuels production. Lukoil retailers in New Jersey and Pennsylvania have been in a large battle this quarter with The New Jersey Gasoline C-Store Automotive Association. The Association would like to implement zone pricing. Lukoil retailers feel this is unfair for their branded wholesale fuel supply contracts. Around mid-September, the gasoline chain raised their prices at the pump to $8/gal in protest. There are 30 stores from New Jersey and another 27 from Pennsylvania that were involved in the protest. The stores claim that the pricing terms that were agreed upon by the Association would ultimately harm both retailers and consumers and would lead to increased prices at the pump. Consumers complained that the stores were price gouging, however anyone who inadvertently purchased fuel without being aware of the price was refunded the difference. 19

PADD 1 A Northeast

New England Weekly Gasoline Prices

A huge gasoline disruption occurred in the Northeast this quarter when barges set to load were not able to due to dock congestion, according to the shipper of the fuel. Other parties stated that this was really not the case, but could not prove otherwise. Many terminals ran out of gas, including terminals owned by Gulf, Magellan and Sunoco. Among other issues, the Irving refinery in Saint John went down for repairs. This reﬁnery is responsible for supplying a large portion of gas to the New England market. These problems caused traders to scramble for prompt barrels, ultimately leading to price increases.

Over the next few weeks, winterized diesel will be moving into all markets in the Northeast. Now is the time to perform routine maintenance on all trucks or machinery utilizing diesel. A useful tip: check the fuel ﬁlter and water separator, as condensation can form from the heat of the engine cooling down when the engine is turned off. Check regularly for this issue, and change ﬁlters when needed. Also, check the owner’s manual for the vehicle or machinery to see any other precautions the manufacturer might suggest. 20

PADD 1 B Southeast

The Southeast PADD began the quarter with a huge scare from Hurricane Isaac. At first, it was speculated to hit the southern portion of Florida. Then, meteorologists thought it was going to hit Tampa, resulting in the closure of the Port of Tampa for several days while Tampa saw flooding during the Republican National Convention. The Florida Panhandle was spared, though many terminals shut down in anticipation of the hurricane. Many barges were delayed and the hurricane caused disruptions for days all along the Florida Panhandle. Carriers were trying to catch up for at least a week from terminal outages and flooding from large rain storms brought by the hurricane’s aftermath. While Isaac was making landfall around Louisiana, large amounts of rain flooded Memphis causing terminal outages from barges being unable to travel north on the Mississippi River. The hurricane, along with other issues, caused a rally with Gulf Coast basis values seeing ULSD at much higher than normal values, well above +1000, and at one point trading at +1250.

Hurricane Isaac Track

Did you know? RVP stands for Reid Vapor Pressure and is a measurement of the absolute vapor pressure exerted by gasoline. During the summer, RVP is controlled at lower levels to reduce emissions.

Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

After many days of trouble following the hurricane, especially during the last week of the Low RVP season, the EPA released a waiver for the LRVP gas. The waiver covered Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee. This was not a complete waiver, but one that stated if you cannot ﬁnd LRVP gas, you could deliver HRVP gas in its place. This waiver was placed in effect on September 4th and will remain in effect until the end of the Low RVP season.

PADD 1 B Southeast

“The Epic terminal has the capacity to hold 450,000 barrels. Currently, all rack suppliers buy bulk from Colonial and resell the product.”

Glencore and Western formed a joint venture where they will sell fuels in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. They are speciﬁcally targeting the Savannah, GA market where they can take over the Epic terminal, which has not been operational, yet has the capacity to hold 450,000 barrels. Currently, all rack suppliers buy bulk from Colonial and resell the product. Western will be the rack marketer for the joint venture while Glencore will provide global sourcing, supply, trading and all risk management services. This joint venture will be the ﬁrst true competition this area has seen since Marathon several years ago. They will try to use an occasional arb of buying European fuels instead of Gulf Coast based fuels in order to have a competitive advantage.

Source: Caribbean Journal

Prices increased along the East Coast due to the February closing of the Hovensa refinery located in St. Croix. U.S. Virgin Islands. Governor John P. de Jongh requested a meeting with the joint owners of the facility, PDVSA and Hess, where the governor stated that the best use for the facility would be as an open profitable refinery. They feel that if certain upgrades were made, this might be possible. The governor has yet to receive a response, though this would greatly increase the available barrels along the East Coast and would help keep costs down.

PADD 2 Midwest

Spotlight: The Bakken Formation While the rest of the country felt the sting of the recession in the form of unemployment and poor business performance, the Bakken Shale Play brought new life to the northern part of PADD 2, boasting an outstanding 97% employment rate. The Bakken Formation was deposited in the more central and deeper portion of the Williston Basin

“As of 2012, North Dakota is second only to Texas in oil production, with an incredible portion of its reserves still untapped.” Source: USGS

The Bakken formation, located in Eastern Montana and Western North Dakota, was named for a North Dakota farmer, Henry Bakken, who owned the land where the first well was discovered in the area in 1951. Despite the number of years since the discovery, most of the oil reserves were unattainable ten years ago when the advent of new technologies in horizontal and hydraulic fracturing made drilling possible. Due to these developments, as of 2012, North Dakota is second only to Texas in oil production, with an incredible portion of its reserves still untapped. While the U.S. Geological Survey estimates the total amount of Bakken crude to be around 4.3 billion barrels, other surveys place the number as high as 24 billion barrels. While this means tremendous boosts for both the local economies and a surge in area diesel demand, the real news surrounds what this means for the U.S. on a large scale as a traditional net importer of crude oil. This also changes the focus for many domestic refiners, as the land-locked Bakken crude can present a discount to WTI crude at times for local refineries to lock in additional profit. As discussed in the inaugural issue of FUELSNews360°, Gulf Coast refined products have traded at a premium to Chicago—an anomaly—due to arbitrage opportunities with cheaper crudes available. While we initially mentioned West Canadian Sour as the main source, discounts in Bakken (not as heavy as WCS) can also lend a hand to this inversion. It should be noted that the Bakken formation improves connectivity with the coasts, but this arbitrage may cease if production does not meet estimates. Despite Bakken being discounted for most of 2012—as much as $25 under WTI—we close Q3’12 with Bakken spot crude prices $4 over WTI. This disparity is predominantly due to new rail connections and supply agreements with Tesoro Anacortes and Irving St. John in Quebec, coming at the same time as the region misses production growth estimates. 23

PADD 2 Midwest

Chicago Biodiesel Blending The spread between WCS and WTI also inspired some local reﬁneries to upgrade in order to process the heavier feedstock. BP Whiting in Indiana underwent work over the past year on each of the crude units, with the last of the work completed in August. Conoco Wood River in Illinois also completed an upgrade which increased capacity and allowed for processing of the heavier crudes.

96.94 92.19

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

At the beginning of 2012, biodiesel was deeply discounted, coming in nearly 30 cents under diesel costs due to the value of the RIN ($1.5400 as of 01/03/12). As the year continues, however, the RIN value has seen a dramatic drop and blend economics at the spot level are not as attractive as they once were. We finish Q3’12 with a 2012 biodiesel RIN value of only $0.7650 – nearly half the premium it fetched at the beginning of the year. This decrease in value has made biodiesel more expensive than diesel and now the blend economics are negative, without looking at the tax benefit. End-users with contracted supply of the discounted product cost are still reaping the benefits on both sides of the equation, though many buyers may still find value in Illinois when the tax exemption outweighs the negatives of product premium. 316.94

0.7650 Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

Refinery Issues

PADD 2 has seen some relatively volatile production swings in the midst of Q3’12, with 10 individual reﬁneries experiencing one or more unplanned upsets. Most noteworthy of these is also the most recent; on the last day of the quarter, there was an explosion at CVR Energy’s refinery in Wynnewood, OK. The explosion killed one person and injured another. The Group Three region should expect additional tightness, as the explosion at the 70,000 bbl/d reﬁnery comes at a time when the market is already short. 24

PADD 3 Gulf Coast

Perhaps the most noteworthy item in Q3’12 for PADD 3 was the havoc wreaked by Hurricane Isaac. The fourth hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, Isaac developed from a tropical wave on August 21st and strengthened to a tropical storm later the same day. Initially projected to be a strong Category 2 hurricane that would hit Florida, Isaac’s passing over Hispaniola and Cuba slowed the system from developing into a hurricane until just before it made landfall on August 28th.

14846.00

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

A Category I hurricane, Isaac hit New Orleans on the 7th anniversary of Katrina. While thankfully Isaac was nowhere near Katrina in terms of destruction of property or lives, there were certainly plenty of supply issues to deal with in its wake. A total of over 1 MB/d of production shut down in the Gulf Coast, either in preparation for or as a result of the hurricane. With the area already experiencing shortages, Gulf Coast product premiums surged and wholesale racks reacted as ﬂooding and wind damages made some areas truly impossible to reach by truck. Less than a month later, all units were back up and running and no lasting mechanical effects were cited.

“Thankfully, Hurricane Issac was nowhere near Katrina in terms of destruction of property or lives, but there were still plenty of supply issues to deal with in its aftermath.” 25

PADD 3 Gulf Coast

Keystone Pipeline Update In 2010, the Keystone Pipeline System, a natural gas pipeline initially originating in Saskatchewan, was converted to a crude oil pipe with the intent of delivering Canadian crude oil to the U.S. into the Gulf Coast. Owned solely by TransCanada, the Keystone Pipeline found itself in the middle of a multitude of debates surrounding the proposed Keystone XL and Gulf Coast projects.

“The Keystone XL expansion is slated to cost about $7 billion, but continues to encounter opposition from environmentalists and politicians alike.” Currently serving as a pipeline between Canada and Wood River with an extension line into Cushing, OK, the expansion plans include two separate projects: the Keystone XL, which would create American crude origins in Baker, MT and Cushing, OK, and the Gulf Coast project, which would provide connectivity to Gulf Coast refineries. The expansion is slated to cost about $7 billion, but continues to fight opposition from environmentalists and politicians. In November 2011, President Obama delayed making a decision on the Keystone XL project until at least 2013, pending further environmental review. However, the Keystone Gulf Coast project was approved on March 22, 2012, and construction began on time in June. The completion date is expected to be middle to late 2013 and will allow for the transport of crude oil from Cushing, OK to Gulf Coast refineries.

PADD 4 Rocky Mountains

It is turnaround season in the Rockies. Most notably, Suncor Energy’s Commerce City, CO refinery is scheduled for maintenance in mid-October. Unfortunately, the refinery was struck by lightning the last week of September shutting down operations for several days. This act of nature will most likely stress turnaround reserves and further impact supply in Colorado and surrounding areas during fourth quarter. In addition, HollyFrontier’s refinery in Cheyenne, WY has been undergoing planned maintenance since September. Further north, Calumet Specialty Products Partners will purchase Montana Refining in Great Falls, MT from Connacher Oil and Gas. Calumet is purchasing the 9,800 bbl/d refinery for $120 million, excluding the value of inventory. The refinery’s access to cheaper Canadian heavy crude helped maintain its profitability in recent years and made it appealing to investors. PADD 4 inventories, as reported by the Department of Energy at the end of September, show builds across the board from a year ago. Gasoline stocks in PADD 4 were at 6.708 MB at the end of the quarter compared to 5.522 MB this same time last year. Distillate stocks were reported at 3.489 MB compared to 2.533 MB a year ago. In the retail world, the EIA reported the average retail price for gasoline in PADD 4 during September was $3.770/gal compared to $3.6330 a year ago. The average retail price in September for diesel was $4.2360/gal compared to $3.8880/gal just one year ago.

PADD 5 West Coast AK, HI

During the third quarter of 2012, the West Coast lost another diesel rack supplier. Cosmo Oil, Japan’s third largest reﬁner, shut down its diesel rack supply business after ﬁve years in the market. However, Mercuria Energy Group announced it will be entering the West Coast supply market. As you can see from the charts below, volatility in the market continued to plague both new and old suppliers. Gasoline regularly saw swings in basis of $.10/gal with as much as $.25/gal in one day in mid-September. These volatile swings did not take into account the further impact of the NYMEX futures related contract.

West Coast Gasoline Basis

“The explosion, at Chevron's Richmond, CA reﬁnery, could be felt and the ﬁre and plume of smoke could be seen from miles away. It goes without saying that the impact to California markets could be felt and seen as well.”

West Coast ULSD Basis

In refinery news, all eyes turned to Richmond, CA where Chevron’s facility caught fire on August 6th. This 245,000 bbl/d San Francisco refinery is the 3rd largest in CA. The explosion could be felt and the fire and plume of smoke could be seen from miles away. The impact to California markets could be seen and felt as well, and the crude unit may be shut down for up to six months.

PADD 5 West Coast AK, HI

BP and Tesoro reached an agreement for BP to sell its Carson, CA refinery and terminal assets to Tesoro for 2.5 billion. The deal is said to also include the branding rights to the ARCO name in northern California, Oregon and Washington. BP also announced plans to build new rail lines into its Cherry Point refinery in Washington to gain access to Bakken crude. The project will allow crude deliveries from the Bakken region into the refinery, as well as move diesel out of the refinery. Completion of the project is expected in 2014. HollyFrontier is expecting to increase its products delivery volume into UNEV Pipeline to 32,000 bbl/d this winter, compared to an average of 13,000 bbl/d earlier this year. This should decrease some of Las Vegas’ dependency on West Coast Supply. Phillips 66 Borger, TX refinery is undergoing maintenance to be completed by the end of November. A full plant outage is expected for approximately one month. The Borger refinery is a key supplier of products into New Mexico. PADD 5 inventories, as reported by the Department of Energy at the end of September, show a decline from a year ago. Gasoline stocks in PADD 5 were at 26.431 MB at the end of the quarter compared to 28.533 MB this same time last year. Distillate stocks were flat and reported at 12.768 MB compared to 12.490 MB a year ago. As for retail, the EIA reported the average retail price for gasoline in PADD 5 for September was $4.1700/gal compared to $3.9250 a year ago. The average retail price in September for diesel was $4.3920/gal compared to $3.9720/gal a year ago.

“PADD 5 inventories, as reported by the Department of Energy at the end of September, show a decline from a year ago.”

Finally, there is much discussion surrounding the implementation of California Assembly Bill 32 or CARB’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG) programs. Assembly Bill 32 requires that by 2020, California’s greenhouse gas emissions be reduced to 1990 levels with the first compliance period beginning on January 1, 2013. One of its programs in particular, the Low Carbon Fuels Standard (LCFS) program, is under attack. Numerous reports conclude that LCFS is not achievable or feasible as currently framed. The most important issue is whether alternative fuel manufacturers can create enough fuel to match market demand and still comply with the LCFS standards and timelines without significantly increasing the state’s fuel prices. In addition, there is further concern that LCFS will drive petroleum supply out of the state because of the cost refiners will have to assume as a result of GHG requirements. A reduction in refining capacity in California could further impact fuel prices.

CANADA “With over 174 billion barrels of proven crude oil, Canada holds the world’s third largest reserves after Saudi Arabia and Venezuela.”

The Canadian economy expanded by 1.8% between April and June, according to Statistics Canada. The number was just slightly above the consensus forecast and just below the Bank of Canada’s projection of 1.9% for the semester, where Canada posted the strongest economic growth among G7 countries. The majority of Canada’s growth came from robust business investment, with companies investing in new equipment and building inventories. Investment in the housing sector was unusually weak, rising by less than 2% annualized. As foreshadowed in earlier retail reports, Canadian consumers checked their spending, with demand growing by a mere 0.3% in the second quarter. The resistance came from exports, which edged up by only 0.2%, far slower than imports, which soared 1.6%.

Contributions to percent change in real gross domestic product, second quarter, 21012 Source: Statistics Canada

With over 174 billion barrels of proven crude oil reserves, Canada holds the world’s third largest reserves after Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. As well, Canada ranked as the sixth largest crude oil producing country in the world, with combined production of over 3 MB/d of crude oil, bitumen, upgraded light oil and condensate.

Canada’s Contribution to U.S. PADD

Source: Canada National Energy Board 30

Alternative Products

Natural Gas

“The higher than expected storage number is giving the market an excuse to sell off. We had a major rally over the past several weeks and it was a bit overdone.”

After being decimated in early 2012 due to high production and reduced demand, natural gas prices were largely dictated in the third quarter by inventory injection data. The natural gas injection (or reﬁll) season traditionally runs from April 1 through October 31, where sizeable net positive injections occur in preparation for the high demand winter season. Prompt month NYMEX natural gas futures opened the quarter at $2.8240 per MMBtu and traded up to $3.2140 on July 30th via steady reports that showed lagging stock builds. But shortly after, as an indication of the choppy trade over the last several months, on August 2nd the Energy Department reported a larger than expected build in inventory – 28 Bcf compared to analyst estimates of 23 Bcf. NYMEX natural gas for September delivery slid $.2510 on that day, or 7.92%, to close at $2.92. This was the biggest decline in prompt month natural gas futures since 2009. At the time, Brad Florer, a trader at Kottke Associates said, “The higher than expected storage number is giving the market an excuse to sell off. We had a major rally over the past several weeks and it was a bit overdone.” Despite some larger than expected weekly increases in stockpiles, the quarter experienced inventory builds lower than usual. In fact, net gains since April of this year are 34% below the ﬁve-year average.

Natural Gas Injections (Bcf)

– Brad Florer, Kottke Associates

Source: NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center Source: U.S. Department of Energy 31

Natural Gas

Supporting lower injection data, the U.S. gas rig count declined sharply in the third quarter as many E&P companies shifted assets from natural gas drilling to more proﬁtable oil exploration. In the last week of third quarter, oilﬁeld services company Baker Hughes reported that active gas rigs decreased 19 from the prior week to 435 overall. That is a drop of 153 rigs over the quarter and is 52.9% less than the active gas rigs from the year prior. Conversely, oil rigs increased by eight on the week to 1,410 and are 1/3 higher year-over-year.

Active Drilling Rigs for Natural Gas & Oil in the U.S.

1410.00

435.00

1848.00

23.539 Source: Bloomberg Financial L.P.

Several large exploration and production (E&P) companies reafﬁrmed claims that natural gas prices were unsustainably cheap. Most notably, Exxon Mobil, who stated earlier in the year they were unaffected by low values, changed their stance. Rex Tillerson, Exxon’s CEO said, “We are all losing our shirts today. We’re making no money. It’s all in the red.” Mr. Tillerson went on to say that most of the industry had “grossly underestimated” the pace of the U.S. shale boom.

“Baker Hughes reported that active gas rigs decreased 19 from the prior week to 435 overall. That is a drop of 153 rigs over the quarter and is 52.9% less than the active gas rigs from the year prior.” 32

Natural Gas “Pennsylvania is home to the Marcellus Shale, one of the nation’s largest, which is estimated to have 141 trillion cubic feet of recoverable resources.”

But even growth in shale projects was affected according to data from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP). Permits and drilling activity sharply declined in Pennsylvania over recent months. For instance, in July, operators drilled 2.5 horizontal natural gas wells each day which is half the wells started per day in 2011 and down from just over 4 wells per day in the ﬁrst quarter of 2012. Daily Natural Gas Well Starts in Pennsylvania (yearly average)

Source: EIA

Renewable Fuels

Record Midwest heat in June and July sparked the worst drought in the U.S. since 1956, causing widespread crop damage that some insurers estimate will reach $20 billon. As a result, agricultural commodity prices rose sharply over the quarter on price rationing of extremely tight supplies. Both corn and soybean futures saw all-time, intraday highs trade for the most active contracts – corn for December delivery touched $8.49 per bushel on August 10th while soybeans for November delivery reached $17.1275 per bushel on August 21st. Underscoring the situation, corn supplies in the U.S. are dropping below last year’s domestic usage for only the third time in half a century. As reported by Bloomberg, corn production this year plus inventories before the harvest will reach 11.872 billion bushels, less than the 12.33 billion bushels consumed or exported last year. Only twice since 1960 has supply failed to exceed usage from the previous year, the last of which being in 1996. While prices for both commodities are well off record highs to ﬁnish the third quarter, USDA data released September 28th sent corn prices surging again, lifting soybean prices as well. The report showed that corn stockpiles in the U.S., the world’s biggest grower and exporter, totaled 988 million bushels as of September 21st, down 12% from 1.128 billion bushels a year earlier. CBOT corn for December delivery raised the 40-cent limit to settle at $7.5625 per bushel while soybeans for November delivery rose 1.93% to close at $16.01 per bushel.

Renewable Fuels

With the spike in grain prices over the summer, pressure grew from livestock and poultry groups to declare a waiver of the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS2), speciﬁcally the corn ethanol mandate. Six state governors sent formal requests to the Environmental Protection Agency claiming economic harm to their state’s economy due to the renewable requirement. Arkansas Gov. Mike Beebe (D) and North Carolina Gov. Beverly Perdue (D) were the ﬁrst to send formal notices citing drought concerns, followed by New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez (R), Georgia Gov. Nathan Deal (R), Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R), and Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell (R). Gov. McDonnell stated, “The imposition of a 15.2 billion gallon renewable fuels standard in 2012, coupled with the prospect of greater than 16.5 billion gallon standard in 2013, causes economic harm to the Commonwealth’s livestock and poultry producing regions.”

2012 Historical, December Corn and Nov Soybeans

756 1/4 1601

Source: Bloomberg Finance, L.P.

Even though the EPA has the power to suspend the mandate if it causes severe environmental or economic harm, that claim has been historically difficult to prove. In fact, this is Gov. Perry’s second request for a repeal following his April 2008 appeal that was denied. The EPA has set a relatively high threshold, stating their waiver authority as having “to determine that the implementation of the mandate itself would severely harm the economy; it is not enough to determine that implementation of RFS would contribute to such harm.” Thus, many analysts believe the agency will contend that it is the drought causing the rise in grain prices, not solely the RFS. Per regulations, the EPA has 90 days from the original requests to issue a final ruling; that date will fall after the worst of the drought is over and after November Presidential election. In response to the livestock and poultry farmers’ contentions, ethanol industry groups maintained no waiver is necessary given the RFS built-in flexibility. Growth Energy, an industry trade group, said they are confident the EPA will come to the conclusion that the “waiver is unnecessary and will not have any substantial effects on the price of corn or how the free market operates.” Beyond corn-based ethanol, some advanced ethanol producers are worried waiving the mandate would hurt investment in a burgeoning industry. And recently, in support of the ethanol and agricultural industries, Minnesota Gov. Mark Dayton (D) affirmed his support for the RFS stating it should not be changed. He stated, “The RFS sends a strong signal to investors at home and around the world of America’s commitment to renewable fuels. Backing away from the RFS would create uncertainty about long-term U.S. energy policy, with lingering, negative impacts.” 34

Mansﬁeld’s National Supply Team Mansfield’s supply team brings unique experience and industry expertise to the table. From contract pricing and hedging to trading of fuel, renewables and alternatives such as CNG and LNG, the Mansfield supply team covers the gamut of knowledge that is required to manage today’s complex national fuel supply chain. Although they work as a national team, each member’s regional focus enables Mansfield to deliver geographic based supply solutions by more efficiently managing market specific refining, shipping and terminal/assets.

Andy Milton VP of Supply & Distribution Andy Milton heads the supply group for Mansfield and during his tenure the company has grown from 1.3 billion gallons to over 2.5 billion gallons per year. Andy’s industry experience spans all aspects of the fuel supply business from truck dispatch, analytics, and index pricing to hedging and bulk purchasing. Prior to Mansfield, Andy worked at RaceTrac Petroleum. Andy’s expertise in purchasing via pipeline, vessel, and the coordination via futures and options for hedging purchases enables him to successfully lead a team of experienced and motivated supply personnel at Mansfield. Andy’s team handles a wide geographic area of all 50 states and Canada, including all gasoline products, ULSD, kerosene, Heating Oil, biodiesel, Ethanol, and Natural Gas. Andy’s education began at Young Harris College and later at Georgia Southern University where he received a BS in Sports Management.

Sara Hordinksi VP of Western US Supply Sara Hordinski’s extensive background in supply and trading, futures hedging and rack marketing, brings a unique perspective to Mansfield’s supply department. Although new to Mansfield’s supply department, Sara has more than twenty-five years’ experience in the oil & has refined products industry. She has marketed refined products throughout much of the United States by pipeline, truck, and rail. In addition, she worked with numerous suppliers, refiners, jobbers, c-store owners, and distributors nationwide to develop competitive contract pricing and hedging programs individual to their needs.

Elizabeth Brooks Manager of Supply & Distribution Elizabeth Brooks serves as the East Coast Supply Manager where she is responsible for purchasing, hedging, and the distribution of all gas and diesel supply on the East Coast. She is also responsible for all trading activities on the East Coast as well as all contracts, and daily rack purchases. At Mansfield, she developed an optimization group that helps the purchasing of all loads across the country. Elizabeth graduated from North Georgia College with a BA in Accounting and prior to Mansfield, she worked in the accounting field as a Staff Accountant. 35

Dan Luther Manager of Supply & Distribution Dan Luther is responsible for purchasing, hedging, and the distribution of natural gas and renewable fuels. Before joining Mansﬁeld, Dan was Director of Operations at Aska Energy and also worked at RaceTrac Petroleum, where he helped manage all barge, rail, and truck fuel deliveries before assuming ethanol trading responsibilities, including purchasing product to fulﬁll RaceTrac’s demand while trading product across other U.S. markets. Dan holds a BSBA in Supply Chain Management and Marketing from Ohio State University and is currently working towards his MBA at Georgia Tech.

Hannah Hauman Manager of Supply & Distribution Hannah Hauman serves as the Midcontinent Supply Manager, based out of Houston, TX. Hannah manages all refined products trading, supply distribution, contracts and daily rack purchases. In addition, Hannah manages Mansfield’s fixed price shorts nationwide. Prior to joining Mansfield, Hannah worked for Marathon Petroleum Company, RaceTrac Petroleum, and Atlas Oil Company in a wide variety of functions ranging from truck dispatch to speculative futures trading. Hannah holds a BS in Business Management from The University of Findlay and is currently pursuing her graduate degree at the University of Houston.

Jorge Pradilla Supply Risk Supervisor Jorge Pradilla started at Mansfield as an intern where he assisted with tracking supplier postings and market analytics. Jorge progressed to become a supply risk supervisor focusing on Mansfield’s futures and clearport activities including reconciliation, broker dealings and trade executions. Jorge oversees the company’s hedging portfolio as well as tracks liabilities, fixed price contracts and analyzes market trends. Jorge also authors the FUELSNews Daily. Born in Colombia, Jorge holds a BS in Marketing from Piedmont College and an MBA in Managerial Leadership.

Scott Van Berkel Director of Canadian Operations Scott recently joined Mansﬁeld after a 32 year career with Shell Canada Ltd. Scott’s broad expertise spans a variety of areas including marketing, sales, logistics and customer service. Scott held numerous management positions with both Shell Canada and their parent company Royal Dutch Shell. Scott’s extensive knowledge of the Canadian market coupled with his experience working in the Commercial, Industrial and Retail businesses makes him an invaluable asset to the supply team. Scott holds a BS in Agricultural Economics from the University of Manitoba. 36

FUELSNews 360Â° M A R K E T N E W S & I N F O R M AT I O N

Mansfield Energy Corp. www.mansfieldoil.com 678.450.2000 1025 Airport Pkwy SW Gainesville, GA 30501 United States of America

ÂŠ2012 Mansfield Energy Corp.

Disclaimer: The information contained herein is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however, this information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness. Furthermore, no responsibility is assumed for use of this material and no express or implied warranties or guarantees are made. This material and any view or comment expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement or recommendation to buy or sell products, commodity futures or options contract.