The Failed States Index 2010

The Failed States Index 2010

THE FAILED STATES INDEX | THE FUND FOR PEACE

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Contents

.

Background

4

What is the Failed States Index?

5

The Failed States Index 2010 in Brief

6

Performance by Region

7

Performance by Indicator

11

The Big Movers for 2010

17

How is the Failed States Index Composed and Applied?

18

Who Uses the Failed States Index?

19

Beyond the Failed States Index

21

About The Fund for Peace

22

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3

The Failed States Index

Background

W

eak and failing states pose a serious threat to the entire world. In today’s world, with is highly globalized economy, information systems and interlaced security, pressures on one fragile state can

have serious repercussions not only for that state and its people, but also for its neighbors and other states halfway across the globe. Witness in recent times, for example, the negative ripple-effects from weak and failing states such as Somalia, Libya, Yemen, Haiti and the Balkan states. mitigate the negative effects of state failure.

Since the end of the Cold War, a number of states have erupted into mass violence stemming from internal conflict. Some of these crises are ethnic conflicts. Some are civil wars. Others take on the form of revolutions. Many result in complex humanitarian emergencies. Though the dynamics may differ in each case, all of these conflicts stem from social, economic, and political pressures that have not been managed by professional, legitimate, and representative state institutions.

To have meaningful early warning, and effective policy responses, assessments must go beyond specialized area knowledge, narrative case studies and anecdotal evidence to identify and grasp broad social trends. An interdisciplinary combination of qualitative research and quantitative methodologies is needed to establish patterns and acquire predictive value.

Information is critical. Without the right data, it is impossible to identify problems that may be festering ‘below the radar.’ Decision makers need access to this kind of information to implement effective policies.

Fault lines emerge between identity groups, defined by language, religion, race, ethnicity, nationality, class, caste, clan or area of origin. Tensions can deteriorate into conflict through a variety of circumstances, such as competition over resources, predatory or fractured leadership, corruption, or unresolved group grievances.

The Failed States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Failed States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.

The reasons for state weakness and failure are complex but not unpredictable. It is critically important that the international community understand and closely monitor the conditions that create weak and failed states—and be prepared to take the necessary actions to deal with the underlying issues or otherwise

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4

The Failed States Index

What is The Failed States Index?

T

he Failed States Index is an annual ranking of 177 nations based on their levels of stability and capacity. First published in 2005, the Failed States Index continues to be a globally recognized, frequently cited and widely

Failed States Index 2010

Alert

Warning

Moderate

Sustainable

praised research product of an independent nongovernmental organization that addresses key 21st century international security challenges.

The Failed States Index is based on The Fund for Peace’s proprietary Conflict Assessment Software Tool (CAST) analytical platform. Based on comprehensive social science methodology, data from three primary sources is triangulated and subjected to critical review to obtain final scores for the Failed States Index.

Leaders and thinkers from government, international organizations, NGO, academia and the media use and refer to the Failed States Index because it is empirically based and has proven to be objective and relevant.

Perhaps the most telling barometer of its credibility is the steady increase in the number of governments that respond to it, by seeking ways to improve their standing in the Failed States Index or using it as a component in making decisions related to foreign assistance.

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Millions of documents are analyzed every year, and by applying highly specialized search parameters, scores are apportioned for every country based on twelve key political, social and economic indicators and over 100 sub-indicators that are the result of years of painstaking expert social science research.

5

The Failed States Index

1.

Somalia

114.3

46.

Colombia

88.2

90.

2.

Chad

113.3

47.

Togo

88.1

=

3.

Sudan

111.8

48.

Syria

87.9

4.

Zimbabwe

110.2

49.

Egypt

87.6

5.

D.R. Congo

109.9

50.

Bhutan

87.3

=

6.

Afghanistan

109.3

51.

Philippines

87.1

95.

7.

Iraq

107.3

52.

Comoros

85.1

8.

C.A.R.

106.4

53.

Bolivia

9.

Guinea

105.0

54.

Israel/W Bank

le na b

e Su

st ai

at M od er

ni ng ar W

le rt A

Failed States Index 2010

Jordan

77.0

135.

Barbados

55.4

Morocco

77.0

=

Latvia

55.4

92.

Peru

76.9

137.

U.A.E.

52.4

93.

Benin

76.8

138.

Costa Rica

52.0

Dominican R.

76.8

139.

Qatar

51.8

Vietnam

76.6

140.

Estonia

50.7

96.

Mexico

76.1

141.

Hungary

50.1

84.9

97.

Sao Tome

75.8

142.

Poland

49.0

84.6

98.

Gabon

75.3

143.

Slovakia

48.8

10.

Pakistan

102.5

55.

Azerbaijan

84.4

99.

Senegal

74.6

144.

Oman

48.7

11.

Haiti

101.6

56.

Papua N G

83.9

100.

Namibia

74.5

145.

Malta

48.2

12.

Cote d’Ivoire

101.2

=

Zambia

83.9

101.

Armenia

74.1

146.

Lithuania

47.8

13.

Kenya

100.7

58.

Moldova

83.8

102.

Guyana

73.0

147.

Greece

45.9

14.

Nigeria

100.2

59.

Angola

83.7

103.

Kazakhstan

72.7

148.

Argentina

45.8

15.

Yemen

100.0

60.

Bosnia & Herz.

83.5

=

Macedonia

72.7

149.

Italy

45.7

16.

Myanmar

99.4

61.

Indonesia

83.1

105.

Suriname

72.5

150.

Mauritius

44.4

17.

Ethiopia

98.8

62.

China

83.0

106.

Paraguay

72.1

151.

Spain

43.5

18.

Timor-Leste

98.2

63.

Swaziland

82.8

107.

Samoa

71.1

152.

Czech Rep

41.5

19.

Niger

97.8

64.

Madagascar

82.6

108.

Micronesia

70.6

153.

South Korea

41.3

North Korea

97.8

65.

Nicaragua

82.5

109.

Ukraine

69.5

=

Uruguay

41.3

= 21.

Uganda

97.5

=

Turkmenistan

82.5

110.

Malaysia

69.2

155.

Chile

38.0

22.

Guinea-Bissau

97.2

67.

Lesotho

82.2

111.

Libya

69.1

156.

Slovenia

36.0

23.

Burundi

96.7

68.

Djibouti

81.9

112.

Belize

68.7

157.

Germany

35.4

24.

Bangladesh

96.1

69.

Ecuador

81.7

113.

Botswana

68.6

158.

United States

35.3

25.

Sri Lanka

95.7

=

Mozambique

81.7

114.

Cyprus

68.0

159.

France

34.9

26.

Cameroon

95.4

71.

Algeria

81.3

115.

Seychelles

67.9

160.

Singapore

34.8

Nepal

95.4

72.

Guatemala

81.2

=

South Africa

67.9

161.

U.K.

33.9

Malawi

93.6

=

Tanzania

81.2

117.

Brunei

67.6

162.

Portugal

33.1

Sierra Leone

93.6

74.

Fiji

80.5

118.

Tunisia

67.5

163.

Belgium

32.0

= 28. = 30.

Eritrea

93.3

75.

The Gambia

80.2

119.

31.

Congo (Rep.)

92.5

76.

Honduras

80.0

=

Brazil

67.4

164.

Japan

31.3

Jamaica

67.4

165.

Iceland

29.8

32.

Iran

92.2

77.

Cuba

79.4

121.

33.

Liberia

91.7

78.

Mali

79.3

=

Albania

67.1

166.

Ghana

67.1

=

34.

Lebanon

90.9

79.

India

79.2

123.

35.

Burkina Faso

90.7

80.

Russia

79.0

124.

Grenada

67.0

168.

Trinidad

66.1

=

36.

Uzbekistan

90.5

81.

Thailand

78.8

125.

Kuwait

61.5

37.

Georgia

90.4

82.

38.

Tajikistan

89.2

=

39.

Mauritania

89.1

40.

Rwanda

88.7

=

Cambodia

=

Canada

27.9

Netherlands

27.9

Australia

27.3

Luxembourg

27.3

170.

Austria

27.2

Belarus

78.7

126.

Bulgaria

61.2

171.

New Zealand

23.9

Venezuela

78.7

127.

Antigua

60.9

172.

Denmark

22.9

84.

Maldives

78.3

128.

Romania

60.2

173.

Ireland

22.4

85.

El Salvador

78.1

129.

Mongolia

60.1

174.

Switzerland

21.8

88.7

86.

Serbia/Kosovo

77.8

130.

Panama

59.3

175.

Sweden

20.9

Laos

88.7

87.

Saudi Arabia

77.5

131.

Croatia

59.0

176.

Finland

19.3

43.

Solomon Is.

88.6

88.

Cape Verde

77.2

132.

The Bahamas

58.9

177.

Norway

18.7

44.

Eq. Guinea

88.5

89.

Turkey

77.1

133.

Bahrain

58.8

45.

Kyrgyzstan

88.4

134.

Montenegro

57.3

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6

The Failed States Index

Performance by Region

T

he Fund for Peace divides the world into four regional groupings encompassing twelve smaller regional sub-groupings in order to better analyze and understand the implications of the Failed States Index for

Performance by Region

Alert

Warning

Moderate

Sustainable Ratings based on an average of the total Index scores of countries within each region.

every country relative to their “neighborhood.” No regional grouping is ever perfect. Nevertheless, the regional groupings reinforce the general scores of the 2010 Failed States Index: Western Europe is currently the most stable region in the world whilst South Asia, closely followed by East Africa, provides the most concern.

80 70 60 50 40 30 Western Europe

Eastern and Southeast Europe

Oceania

North America and the Caribbean

Central and South America

East and Southeast Asia

Maghreb and Middle East

Southern Africa

Central Asia and the Caucasus

7

West and Central Africa

20

East Africa

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90

South Asia

If each region was adjudged by the same scale that the Failed States Index assesses countries, then 9 of the world’s 12 regions would fall within the “Warning” category whilst two regions would fall within the “Alert” category.

Average Index Scores by Region

The Failed States Index

Regional Performance

North America and the Caribbean The Best Performers 166.

Canada

27.9

158.

United States

35.3

The Worst Performers 11.

Haiti

101.6

77.

Cuba

79.4

93.

Dominican Republic

76.8

96.

Mexico

76.1

South and Central America The Best Performers 155.

Chile

38.0

153.

Uruguay

41.3

148.

Argentina

45.8

The Worst Performers 46.

Colombia

88.2

53.

Bolivia

84.9

65.

Nicaragua

82.5

Western Europe The Best Performers 177.

Norway

18.7

176.

Finland

19.3

175.

Sweden

20.9

174.

Switzerland

21.8

173.

Ireland

22.4

The Worst Performer 149.

Italy

45.7

South, Central and Eastern Europe The Best Performers 156.

Slovenia

36.0

152.

Czech Republic

41.5

147.

Greece

45.9

The Worst Performers

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8

60.

Bosnia & Herzegovina

83.5

80.

Russia

79.0

82.

Belarus

78.7

The Failed States Index

Regional Performance

Western and Central Africa The Best Performer 121.

Ghana

67.1

The Worst Performers 2.

Chad

113.3

8.

Central African Republic

106.4

9.

Guinea

105.0

12.

Cote d’Ivoire

101.2

14.

Nigeria

100.2

Eastern Africa The Best Performer 115.

Seychelles

67.9

The Worst Performers 1.

Somalia

114.3

3.

Sudan

111.8

13.

Kenya

100.7

17.

Ethiopia

98.8

21.

Uganda

97.5

Southern Africa The Best Performers 115.

South Africa

67.9

113.

Botswana

68.6

The Worst Performers 4.

Zimbabwe

110.2

5.

D.R. Congo

109.9

28.

Malawi

93.6

31.

Republic of Congo

92.5

Middle East and North Africa The Best Performer 144.

Oman

48.7

The Worst Performers 7.

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9

Iraq

107.3

15.

Yemen

100.0

32.

Iran

92.2

34.

Lebanon

90.9

39.

Mauritania

89.1

The Failed States Index

Regional Performance

Central Asia and the Caucasus The Best Performer 103.

Kazakhstan

72.7

The Worst Performers 36.

Uzbekistan

90.5

37.

Georgia

90.4

38.

Tajikistan

89.2

45.

Kyrgyzstan

88.4

55.

Azerbaijan

84.4

South Asia The Best Performer 84.

Maldives

78.3

The Worst Performers 6.

Afghanistan

109.3

10.

Pakistan

102.5

24.

Bangladesh

96.1

25.

Sri Lanka

95.7

26.

Nepal

95.4

Southeast and East Asia The Best Performers 164.

Japan

31.3

160.

Singapore

34.8

153.

South Korea

41.3

The Worst Performers 16.

Myanmar

99.4

18.

Timor-Leste

98.2

19.

North Korea

97.8

Oceania The Best Performers 171.

New Zealand

23.9

168.

Australia

27.3

The Worst Performers

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10

43.

Solomon Islands

88.6

56.

Papua New Guinea

83.9

74.

Fiji

80.5

The Failed States Index

Performance by Indicator

T

he Failed States Index scores for every country are based on twelve key indicators, the result of years of social science research. The analysis of the individual indicators is just as important as the overall ranking.

Social Indicators

Political and Military Indicators

Mounting Demographic Pressures

Legitimacy of the State

Pressures on the population such as disease an natural disasters that make it difficult for the government to meet its social obligations.

Corruption and a lack of representativeness in the government directly undermine the social contract.

Massive Movement of Refugees or IDPs

Progressive Deterioration of Public Services

Pressures associated with population displacement. This strains public services, and has the potential to pose a security threat as groups are susceptible to politicization.

The provision of health, education, and sanitation services are a key aspect of the social contract.

Violation of Human Rights and Rule of Law Vengeance-Seeking Group Grievance When human rights are violated or unevenly enforced, the social contract is weakened.

When tension and violence exists between groups, it undermines the state’s ability to provide security. When security is not guaranteed, violence and fear may ensue.

Security Apparatus The security apparatus should have a monopoly on the use of legitimate force. When the security apparatus is fractured or when competing or parallel groups exist, this weakens the social contract.

Chronic and Sustained Human Flight When there is little opportunity, people migrate, leaving a vacuum of human capital.

Rise of Factionalized Elites

Economic Indicators

When local and national leaders engage in deadlock and brinksmanship for political gain, this undermines the social contract.

Uneven Economic Development When there are ethnic, religious, or regional disparities, the governed tend to be uneven in their commitment to the social contract.

Intervention of External Actors When the state cannot meet its obligations under the social contract, external actors often intervene to provide services or to manipulate the internal affairs for economic and political gain.

Poverty, Sharp or Severe Economic Decline Poverty and economic decline strain the ability of the state to meet its social obligations. Includes such things as inflation and unemployment.

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11

The Failed States Index

6

st ai

at

Social

Su

M od er

ni ng ar W

A

le rt

e

na b

le

Performance by Indicators

Economic

Political and Military

Afghanistan

9.5

9.2

9.7

7.2

8.2

8.3

10.0

8.9

9.2

9.7

9.4

10.0

109.3

121

Albania

5.9

2.8

4.9

7.1

5.7

6.1

6.8

5.6

5.3

5.4

6.0

5.5

67.1

71

Algeria

6.7

6.5

8.2

6.1

7.1

5.1

7.5

6.5

7.6

7.5

6.8

5.7

81.3

59

Angola

8.4

6.9

5.9

5.6

9.1

5.0

8.1

8.0

7.3

5.9

6.8

6.7

83.7

127

Antigua and Barbuda

4.7

3.4

4.5

7.3

6.1

5.5

5.3

4.6

4.7

4.6

4.0

6.2

60.9

148

Argentina

4.6

2.2

4.5

3.8

5.8

5.1

3.6

3.7

3.8

2.4

3.2

3.1

45.8

101

Armenia

5.7

6.9

6.0

7.0

6.5

5.8

6.6

5.3

6.4

5.1

7.0

5.8

74.1

168

Australia

3.5

2.5

3.4

1.2

4.2

3.2

1.5

1.8

2.0

1.4

1.5

1.1

27.3

170

Austria

2.7

2.3

3.8

1.2

4.7

2.7

1.4

1.4

1.6

1.1

1.9

2.4

27.2

Azerbaijan

6.2

8.1

7.9

5.7

7.3

5.9

8.0

5.5

7.2

7.3

7.9

7.4

84.4

132

Bahamas

6.2

3.2

4.7

5.8

6.4

5.0

5.5

4.4

2.8

4.8

4.8

5.3

58.9

133

Bahrain

4.5

2.6

6.5

3.5

6.0

4.0

6.7

3.1

5.4

4.7

6.1

5.7

58.8

Bangladesh

8.4

6.7

8.9

8.4

8.8

7.9

8.0

8.3

7.4

8.1

8.9

6.3

96.1

Barbados

4.0

3.2

4.9

6.5

6.7

5.4

4.1

3.1

2.8

4.5

4.5

5.7

55.4

55

24 135 82

Belarus

6.7

3.7

6.4

4.8

6.7

6.7

8.7

6.2

7.9

6.2

7.8

6.9

78.7

163

Belgium

2.6

1.8

4.4

1.3

4.7

3.7

2.3

2.1

1.5

1.8

3.0

2.8

32.0

112

Belize

6.5

5.1

4.9

6.7

7.1

6.2

6.2

5.8

3.8

5.7

4.6

6.1

68.7

93

Benin

7.7

6.7

4.2

6.7

7.4

7.4

6.4

8.4

5.5

5.3

4.1

7.0

76.8

50

Bhutan

7.0

7.3

7.7

7.1

8.5

7.5

6.9

7.3

7.9

5.8

7.7

6.6

87.3

53

Bolivia

7.6

4.7

7.7

6.7

8.7

6.8

7.1

7.5

6.6

6.5

8.3

6.7

84.9

60

Bosnia and Herzegovina

5.3

7.1

8.7

5.6

7.1

5.7

8.0

5.4

5.9

7.2

9.2

8.3

83.5

113

Botswana

9.0

6.6

4.1

5.9

7.7

6.1

5.3

6.4

4.8

4.0

2.9

5.8

68.6

119

Brazil

6.3

3.7

6.2

4.8

8.8

4.0

6.2

6.0

5.4

6.7

5.1

4.2

67.4

117

Brunei Darussalam

5.4

4.2

6.6

3.8

7.8

3.7

7.7

3.5

6.9

5.9

7.4

4.7

67.6

126

Bulgaria

4.5

3.9

4.5

5.8

6.1

5.3

6.0

5.0

4.6

5.1

4.6

5.8

61.2

35

Burkina Faso

9.3

6.2

5.9

6.6

8.8

8.0

7.7

8.8

6.6

7.3

7.6

7.9

90.7

23

Burundi

9.4

8.4

7.8

6.5

8.4

8.2

7.6

9.0

7.7

7.1

7.9

8.7

96.7

40

Cambodia

8.0

5.3

6.9

7.9

7.1

7.7

8.7

8.3

7.7

6.4

7.7

7.0

88.7

26

Cameroon

8.2

7.6

7.5

8.1

8.7

7.0

9.0

8.0

7.8

7.8

8.7

7.0

95.4

Canada

3.2

2.5

3.1

2.1

4.5

2.5

1.5

1.5

1.9

1.2

2.4

1.5

27.9

Cape Verde

7.7

4.1

4.4

8.2

6.0

7.0

7.2

7.4

6.0

5.5

6.1

7.6

77.2

8

Central African Republic

9.1

9.3

8.9

6.1

9.2

8.4

9.0

9.2

8.8

9.7

9.1

9.6

106.4

166 88

2

Chad

9.4

9.5

9.8

8.3

9.3

8.5

9.9

9.6

9.6

9.9

9.8

9.7

113.3

155

Chile

4.1

2.6

3.4

2.5

4.5

4.6

1.8

4.0

3.4

2.3

1.5

3.3

38.0

62

China

8.8

6.6

8.0

5.9

9.0

4.3

8.3

7.0

9.0

5.8

7.2

3.1

83.0

46

Colombia

6.7

9.0

7.2

8.3

8.3

4.6

7.7

5.8

6.9

7.7

8.0

8.0

88.2

52

Comoros

7.5

3.9

5.6

6.4

6.1

7.6

8.2

8.5

6.8

7.5

8.0

9.0

85.1

Costa Rica

5.5

4.6

3.9

4.5

6.5

5.4

3.9

4.1

3.3

2.5

3.2

4.6

52.0

Cote d'Ivoire

8.4

8.0

8.9

8.2

7.9

8.0

9.0

8.3

8.3

8.2

8.5

9.5

101.2

Croatia

4.7

5.9

5.2

4.6

5.3

6.2

4.8

3.7

4.5

4.4

4.3

5.4

59.0

Cuba

6.7

5.7

5.5

7.2

6.6

6.3

7.0

5.0

7.5

7.3

7.1

7.5

79.4

114

Cyprus

4.8

4.5

7.6

5.0

7.6

4.3

5.2

3.4

3.6

5.3

7.9

8.8

68.0

152

Czech Republic

3.3

2.8

3.4

4.3

4.1

4.4

3.4

3.6

3.3

2.1

3.3

3.5

41.5

D.R. Congo

9.9

9.6

8.6

8.0

9.5

8.7

8.8

9.0

9.4

9.8

8.9

9.7

109.9

Denmark

2.8

1.7

3.0

1.8

2.0

3.1

1.1

1.3

1.3

1.5

1.0

2.3

22.9

138 12 131 77

5 172

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12

The Failed States Index

st ai

at

Social

Economic

Political and Military

Su

M od er

ni ng ar W

A

le rt

e

na b

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Performance by Indicators

68

Djibouti

7.9

6.8

5.9

5.5

6.5

6.4

7.2

7.3

6.6

6.0

7.1

8.7

81.9

93

Dominican Republic

6.5

5.1

5.8

8.3

7.8

5.9

5.6

6.9

6.5

5.6

6.8

6.0

76.8

69

Ecuador

6.3

6.1

6.4

7.5

8.0

6.7

7.4

7.0

5.8

6.6

7.8

6.1

81.7

49

Egypt

7.4

6.7

8.2

6.0

7.4

6.8

8.4

6.1

8.2

6.5

8.1

7.8

87.6

85

El Salvador

8.1

5.7

5.9

7.1

7.9

6.6

6.8

7.0

6.7

6.7

4.5

5.1

78.1

44

Equatorial Guinea

8.4

2.3

6.8

7.4

8.8

4.7

9.6

8.4

9.4

8.4

8.4

5.9

88.5

30

Eritrea

8.7

7.2

6.1

7.1

6.2

8.6

8.8

8.6

8.4

7.6

7.9

8.1

93.3

140

Estonia

4.5

4.2

5.0

4.1

5.2

5.0

4.5

3.3

3.3

2.6

5.5

3.5

50.7

17

Ethiopia

9.2

7.8

8.6

7.5

8.5

8.0

7.7

8.1

8.7

7.8

9.0

7.9

98.8

74

Fiji

5.9

4.2

7.4

6.6

7.5

6.7

8.9

5.5

6.7

6.8

8.2

6.1

80.5

176

Finland

2.3

1.7

1.2

2.2

1.7

3.0

0.7

1.2

1.5

1.0

1.0

1.8

19.3

159

France

3.7

3.1

5.6

1.8

5.3

3.6

1.8

1.5

2.7

1.6

2.0

2.2

34.9

98

Gabon

7.0

5.9

3.0

6.4

7.9

5.9

7.8

6.6

6.4

5.7

7.2

5.5

75.3

75

Gambia

7.6

6.0

4.6

6.2

6.8

7.5

7.6

7.2

7.4

5.8

6.2

7.3

80.2

37

Georgia

6.2

7.8

8.4

5.8

7.2

6.5

9.0

6.4

7.3

8.0

9.1

8.7

90.4

157

Germany

3.3

4.0

4.7

2.6

4.7

3.6

2.1

1.7

2.3

2.2

2.0

2.2

35.4

122

Ghana

7.1

5.3

5.2

7.9

6.4

5.8

5.1

7.6

4.7

2.6

4.2

5.2

67.1

147

Greece

4.5

2.8

4.2

4.5

4.6

4.3

4.6

3.7

3.4

3.4

2.4

3.5

45.9

123

Grenada

5.8

2.9

4.2

7.6

6.7

6.1

6.4

3.9

4.6

5.4

5.8

7.6

67.0

Guatemala

7.4

5.6

6.8

6.7

8.0

6.9

7.1

6.8

6.9

7.2

6.3

5.5

81.2

Guinea

8.3

7.5

8.2

8.6

8.7

8.9

9.8

9.0

9.5

9.4

9.3

7.8

105.0

Guinea-Bissau

8.5

6.8

5.8

7.1

8.4

8.3

9.1

8.8

8.1

8.9

8.9

8.5

97.2

Guyana

6.1

3.6

6.2

8.0

7.7

6.9

6.8

5.3

5.2

6.6

5.1

5.5

73.0

11

Haiti

9.3

5.6

7.3

8.6

8.3

9.2

9.3

9.5

8.3

8.2

8.4

9.6

101.6

76

72 9 22 102

Honduras

7.6

4.1

5.0

6.5

8.3

7.5

7.5

6.9

6.3

7.0

6.8

6.5

80.0

141

Hungary

3.3

3.1

3.2

4.8

5.9

5.4

5.7

3.6

3.3

2.2

5.0

4.6

50.1

165

Iceland

0.8

1.1

1.0

3.0

2.3

7.2

2.0

1.5

1.9

1.1

2.0

5.9

29.8

79

India

8.1

5.2

7.8

6.5

8.7

5.1

5.8

7.2

6.1

7.6

6.2

4.9

79.2

61

Indonesia

7.2

6.5

6.3

7.3

7.9

6.7

6.9

6.7

6.5

7.3

7.1

6.7

83.1

32

Iran

6.4

8.3

8.1

7.1

7.3

5.5

9.0

5.9

9.4

8.9

9.5

6.8

92.2

7

Iraq

8.5

8.7

9.3

9.3

8.8

7.6

9.0

8.4

9.1

9.5

9.6

9.5

107.3

Ireland

2.0

1.6

1.0

2.0

2.8

3.3

1.6

2.4

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.3

22.4

Israel/West Bank

7.0

7.8

9.5

3.8

7.7

4.4

7.3

6.8

7.8

6.5

8.2

7.8

84.6

149

Italy

4.0

3.9

4.8

2.8

4.5

4.7

4.5

3.1

3.0

4.2

4.0

2.2

45.7

119

Jamaica

6.0

2.8

4.5

6.4

6.5

6.8

6.8

6.2

5.5

5.8

4.0

6.1

67.4

164

Japan

4.0

1.2

3.6

2.1

2.6

3.5

1.8

1.3

3.2

2.1

2.2

3.7

31.3

90

Jordan

6.8

7.9

6.9

4.8

7.2

6.2

5.9

5.2

7.0

5.9

6.5

6.7

77.0

Kazakhstan

5.8

4.0

5.7

4.1

6.2

6.7

7.5

5.5

7.1

6.3

7.6

6.2

72.7

13

Kenya

9.1

8.7

8.9

7.9

8.7

7.4

9.3

8.1

8.0

7.5

8.7

8.4

100.7

125

173 54

103

Kuwait

5.5

4.1

5.1

4.1

6.1

3.8

6.0

3.1

6.5

4.9

7.2

5.1

61.5

45

Kyrgyzstan

7.8

5.2

7.4

7.3

7.9

7.9

8.4

6.3

7.6

7.6

7.4

7.6

88.4

40

Laos

7.9

5.9

6.8

6.7

5.8

7.3

8.3

8.1

8.7

7.4

8.5

7.3

88.7

Latvia

4.3

4.3

4.6

5.0

6.0

6.3

5.4

4.2

3.5

3.0

4.3

4.5

55.4

34

Lebanon

6.8

8.9

9.0

7.0

7.2

6.1

7.3

6.0

6.8

8.9

8.8

8.1

90.9

67

Lesotho

9.2

4.8

5.2

6.7

5.7

8.7

7.2

8.5

6.3

5.9

7.2

6.8

82.2

135

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13

The Failed States Index

33

st ai

at

Social

Economic

Political and Military

Su

M od er

ni ng ar W

A

le rt

e

na b

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Performance by Indicators

Liberia

8.4

8.2

6.3

6.7

8.3

8.0

7.1

8.5

6.5

6.7

8.1

8.9

91.7

111

Libya

5.7

4.3

5.8

4.2

6.9

5.3

7.3

4.2

8.3

5.2

7.1

4.8

69.1

146

Lithuania

4.3

2.9

4.0

5.0

6.0

5.7

3.9

3.2

3.3

2.2

3.2

4.1

47.8

168

Luxembourg

1.9

1.7

3.2

1.2

2.3

2.8

2.7

2.2

1.3

2.1

3.6

2.3

27.3

103

Macedonia

4.8

4.6

7.6

6.7

7.1

6.6

6.9

4.6

5.1

5.6

6.5

6.6

72.7

64

Madagascar

8.6

4.8

5.4

5.3

7.7

7.2

7.1

8.6

5.8

6.4

7.7

8.0

82.6

28

Malawi

9.2

6.5

6.2

8.4

8.3

9.2

8.1

8.6

7.3

5.4

7.8

8.6

93.6

110

Malaysia

6.3

5.0

6.6

3.9

7.0

5.1

5.9

5.0

6.8

5.9

6.3

5.4

69.2

84

Maldives

6.3

6.4

5.2

7.1

5.3

7.0

7.3

7.1

7.3

6.1

7.4

5.8

78.3

78

Mali

8.7

4.8

6.3

7.5

7.0

8.1

5.4

8.5

5.0

7.0

4.0

7.0

79.3

Malta

3.7

5.8

4.2

4.1

4.4

4.2

4.1

3.2

3.7

4.0

2.0

4.8

48.2

Mauritania

8.5

6.4

8.0

5.2

6.8

7.7

7.5

8.3

7.3

7.9

7.9

7.6

89.1

Mauritius

3.7

1.2

3.5

2.6

5.7

4.1

5.1

4.2

3.7

3.7

3.3

3.6

44.4

Mexico

6.8

4.1

5.8

6.8

8.0

6.5

6.6

5.8

5.8

7.5

5.5

6.9

76.1

145 39 150 96 108

Micronesia

7.0

3.1

4.5

8.1

6.8

6.4

6.6

6.6

2.8

5.1

5.5

8.1

70.6

58

Moldova

6.4

4.3

6.9

7.8

6.8

7.0

7.9

6.7

6.8

7.8

8.0

7.4

83.8

129

Mongolia

5.6

1.4

4.3

2.3

5.9

5.7

6.2

5.3

6.4

4.8

5.3

6.9

60.1

134

Montenegro

4.9

4.2

6.6

2.7

4.4

4.9

4.5

3.8

5.3

4.5

5.9

5.6

57.3

90

Morocco

6.8

6.6

6.6

6.4

7.6

6.5

7.2

6.6

6.8

5.4

6.2

4.3

77.0

69

Mozambique

8.8

3.5

4.8

7.8

7.5

7.8

7.5

8.9

7.3

6.2

5.4

6.2

81.7

16

Myanmar

8.5

8.3

8.7

6.3

9.3

8.2

9.6

8.5

9.1

8.2

8.2

6.5

99.4

100

Namibia

7.5

5.7

5.6

7.5

8.9

6.5

4.8

6.9

5.8

5.6

3.7

6.0

74.5

Nepal

8.1

7.0

9.2

6.2

9.0

8.3

8.1

7.6

8.7

7.7

8.5

7.0

95.4

166

Netherlands

2.7

3.2

4.7

1.9

3.2

3.0

1.2

1.5

1.3

1.1

1.7

2.4

27.9

171

26

New Zealand

1.5

1.4

3.3

2.1

4.3

4.0

1.0

1.6

1.5

1.1

1.2

0.9

23.9

65

Nicaragua

6.8

5.0

6.3

6.9

7.9

7.9

7.6

7.6

6.2

6.5

7.0

6.8

82.5

19

Niger

9.6

6.5

8.0

6.5

7.8

9.2

8.9

9.7

8.5

7.3

7.6

8.2

97.8

14

Nigeria

8.4

5.8

9.5

8.1

9.3

6.9

9.4

9.1

8.8

9.3

9.4

6.2

100.2

19

North Korea

8.5

5.6

7.2

5.0

8.8

9.6

9.9

9.6

9.5

8.1

7.8

8.2

97.8

177

Norway

1.7

1.6

1.3

1.2

2.4

2.6

0.8

1.1

1.6

1.2

1.1

2.1

18.7

144

Oman

4.7

1.1

3.0

1.7

2.7

4.5

6.0

4.5

6.7

5.2

6.6

2.0

48.7

10

Pakistan

8.1

8.9

9.4

7.9

8.4

6.2

8.9

7.3

8.9

9.7

9.5

9.3

102.5

130

Panama

6.3

3.5

4.4

5.0

7.5

5.6

4.8

5.5

4.5

5.2

3.0

4.0

59.3

Papua New Guinea

7.5

4.2

7.1

7.7

9.0

6.3

7.8

8.3

6.3

6.5

7.1

6.1

83.9

56 106

Paraguay

6.2

1.5

6.3

5.8

8.0

6.2

8.3

5.8

6.7

5.9

7.5

3.9

72.1

92

Peru

6.4

4.5

6.7

7.0

8.0

5.6

6.9

6.5

5.5

7.4

6.9

5.5

76.9

51

Philippines

7.7

6.7

7.6

7.0

7.4

5.8

8.6

6.3

7.5

7.9

8.0

6.6

87.1

142

Poland

4.7

3.2

3.3

5.9

4.8

5.0

4.5

3.7

3.8

2.4

3.7

4.0

49.0

162

Portugal

3.7

1.8

2.6

2.2

3.7

4.7

1.9

3.6

3.5

1.4

1.2

2.8

33.1

139

Qatar

4.5

3.0

5.2

3.4

5.3

4.1

6.3

2.6

4.7

2.7

5.0

5.0

51.8

Republic of the Congo

8.7

7.7

6.3

6.4

8.1

7.8

9.1

8.6

7.7

7.6

7.1

7.4

92.5

Romania

5.4

3.2

5.6

4.9

5.6

5.6

6.0

4.8

4.3

4.1

5.2

5.5

60.2

80

Russia

6.7

5.4

7.1

6.0

7.9

5.1

8.1

5.5

8.0

6.8

7.6

4.8

79.0

40

Rwanda

9.1

7.0

8.5

7.0

7.2

7.0

7.5

7.4

7.5

5.0

8.0

7.5

88.7

Samoa

6.9

3.1

5.1

8.0

6.6

6.2

6.4

5.1

4.5

5.8

5.3

8.1

71.1

31 128

107

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14

The Failed States Index

st ai

at

Social

Economic

Political and Military

Su

M od er

ni ng ar W

A

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e

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Performance by Indicators

97

Sao Tome & Principe

7.5

4.1

5.1

7.0

5.9

7.3

7.3

7.3

5.1

6.0

6.7

6.5

75.8

87

Saudi Arabia

6.3

6.2

7.8

3.5

7.3

3.1

8.2

4.1

9.1

7.8

7.8

6.3

77.5

99

Senegal

7.6

6.2

6.1

5.8

7.0

6.2

5.9

7.4

6.0

6.3

4.2

5.9

74.6

86

Serbia/Kosovo

5.6

6.9

7.8

5.3

6.9

6.2

6.8

5.2

5.6

6.5

8.0

7.0

77.8

Seychelles

6.1

4.3

5.0

4.5

6.9

5.8

7.0

4.5

5.9

5.6

6.0

6.3

67.9

115

Sierra Leone

9.1

7.1

6.7

8.3

8.8

8.6

7.7

9.1

6.8

5.9

7.8

7.7

93.6

160

Singapore

2.8

0.9

2.9

2.5

3.1

3.7

4.2

1.7

4.4

1.5

4.1

3.0

34.8

143

Slovakia

4.1

2.2

4.8

5.2

5.6

5.0

4.1

3.8

3.8

2.1

3.9

4.2

48.8

156

Slovenia

3.4

1.4

3.4

3.3

5.0

4.0

2.8

3.0

3.0

2.8

1.3

2.6

36.0

Solomon Islands

8.3

4.8

7.0

5.4

7.9

8.0

8.1

8.2

6.8

7.0

8.0

9.1

88.6

28

43

Somalia

9.6

10.0

9.7

8.3

8.0

9.6

10.0

9.6

9.9

10.0

10.0

9.6

114.3

115

South Africa

8.4

7.0

5.6

4.4

8.5

5.0

5.8

5.5

4.7

4.1

5.9

3.0

67.9

153

South Korea

3.6

3.3

3.9

4.8

2.5

2.8

3.9

2.3

2.8

1.5

3.6

6.3

41.3

151

Spain

3.7

2.8

6.3

1.8

5.0

4.4

1.6

2.4

2.5

5.3

5.7

2.0

43.5

Sri Lanka

7.3

9.4

9.6

6.7

8.7

5.9

8.6

6.4

8.8

8.5

9.4

6.4

95.7

Sudan

8.8

9.8

9.9

8.7

9.5

6.7

9.9

9.3

9.9

9.8

9.9

9.6

111.8

105

Suriname

6.0

3.7

6.4

6.7

7.7

6.6

6.5

5.1

5.8

6.0

5.8

6.2

72.5

63

Swaziland

9.1

4.2

4.2

6.2

6.2

8.2

8.6

7.6

7.7

6.6

6.9

7.3

82.8

175

Sweden

2.7

2.7

1.3

1.8

2.1

2.2

0.8

1.3

1.8

1.3

1.3

1.6

20.9

174

1

25 3

Switzerland

2.4

1.5

3.3

1.8

2.6

2.4

1.0

1.4

2.2

1.2

1.0

1.0

21.8

48

Syria

5.9

8.9

8.3

6.6

7.8

6.3

8.6

5.5

8.8

7.6

7.8

5.8

87.9

38

Tajikistan

8.0

6.2

6.9

6.3

7.1

7.5

8.9

7.3

8.7

7.3

8.4

6.6

89.2

72

Tanzania

8.2

7.3

6.4

6.1

6.7

7.2

6.5

8.3

5.9

5.6

6.0

7.0

81.2

81

Thailand

6.7

6.7

7.8

4.7

7.5

4.3

8.0

5.4

7.0

7.4

8.0

5.3

78.8

18

Timor-Leste

8.6

9.1

7.5

6.1

7.0

8.4

9.1

8.7

7.0

8.8

8.7

9.2

98.2

47

Togo

8.0

6.2

5.6

7.0

7.6

8.0

7.5

8.4

7.7

7.6

7.6

6.9

88.1

124

Trinidad and Tobago

5.6

3.1

4.9

7.3

7.2

4.8

5.9

5.2

5.4

6.0

5.6

5.1

66.1

118

Tunisia

5.7

3.4

5.4

5.2

7.0

5.0

6.4

5.7

7.5

6.5

6.0

3.7

67.5

89

Turkey

6.3

6.3

8.0

4.8

7.8

5.8

6.0

5.4

5.5

7.4

7.8

6.0

77.1

65

Turkmenistan

6.8

4.6

6.3

5.4

7.4

6.6

8.4

7.0

9.0

7.7

7.7

5.6

82.5

21

Uganda

8.7

8.9

8.5

6.9

8.4

7.2

7.9

8.2

7.6

8.7

8.6

7.9

97.5

109

Ukraine

5.6

3.1

6.9

6.6

6.2

6.3

7.2

4.0

5.3

3.8

7.9

6.6

69.5

137

United Arab Emirates

4.4

3.2

4.7

3.3

5.7

3.9

6.7

3.4

5.9

2.7

4.0

4.5

52.4

161

United Kingdom

3.2

3.0

4.1

1.8

4.5

3.0

1.6

2.3

2.3

2.7

3.2

2.2

33.9

158

United States

3.1

3.2

3.4

1.1

5.4

4.0

2.5

2.5

3.7

1.6

3.3

1.5

35.3

153

Uruguay

4.3

1.3

2.0

5.6

5.0

4.0

2.6

3.4

2.5

3.4

3.0

4.2

41.3

36

Uzbekistan

7.7

5.1

7.4

6.6

8.5

7.0

8.5

6.4

9.3

8.8

9.0

6.2

90.5

82

Venezuela

6.3

5.1

6.8

6.7

7.6

5.8

7.2

6.1

7.2

6.7

7.5

5.7

78.7

95

Vietnam

6.9

5.2

5.3

5.9

6.5

6.6

7.3

6.4

7.3

6.0

7.0

6.2

76.6

15

Yemen

8.6

8.3

8.2

7.2

8.6

7.9

8.7

8.6

8.0

8.9

9.2

7.8

100.0

56

Zambia

9.0

7.3

5.4

7.1

7.3

8.0

7.5

8.0

5.9

5.0

6.1

7.3

83.9

Zimbabwe

9.4

8.6

8.8

9.7

9.4

9.6

9.6

9.4

9.5

9.2

9.5

7.5

110.2

4

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15

The Failed States Index

Performance by Indicators

1.

Sudan

1.

Sudan

2.

Somalia

2.

Chad

2.

D. R. Congo

3.

Niger

3.

Somalia

3.

Zimbabwe

4.

Afghanistan

4.

Afghanistan

4.

Chad

5.

Chad

5.

Sri Lanka

5.

Nigeria

Best Performer

Best Performer 177.

1.

Somalia

1.

Zimbabwe

1.

Zimbabwe

2.

Sudan

2.

Iraq

2.

North Korea

3.

D. R. Congo

3.

Sudan

3.

Somalia

4.

Chad

4.

Haiti

4.

Haiti

5.

Sri Lanka

5.

Guinea

5.

Malawi

Best Performer

Singapore

177.

Finland

Best Performer

United States

177.

Sweden

1.

Somalia

1.

Somalia

2.

Afghanistan

2.

Sudan

2.

Sudan

3.

North Korea

3.

Chad

3.

Chad

4.

Chad

4.

North Korea

4.

Iraq

5.

Sudan Best Performer

177.

Finland

5.

Guinea Best Performer

177.

Factionalized Elites

Somalia Human Rights and Rule of Law

1.

Denmark

5.

Pakistan Best Performer

177.

Finland

Niger

1.

Somalia

1.

Afghanistan

2.

Chad

2.

Chad

2.

Chad

3.

Somalia

3.

Sudan

3.

D. R. Congo

4.

North Korea

4.

D. R. Congo

4.

Somalia

5.

Haiti

5.

Afghanistan

5.

Sudan

Best Performer 177.

External Intervention

1.

Security Apoparatus

Legitimacy of the State

177.

Poverty and Decline

Iceland

177.

Iceland

Best Performer

177.

Best Performer

Public Services

Uneven Development

D. R. Congo Group Grievance

1.

Human Flight

Refugees and IDPs

Demographic Pressure

Best and Worst Performers by Indicator

Best Performer

Norway

177.

Finland

Best Performer 177.

New Zealand

Why Are Some Countries Missing?

Not every nation is included in the Failed States Index, which only measures nations recognized by the United Nations and, in some cases, excludes tiny nations due to a dearth of data. Hence, some countries are not included: UN Member States excluded due to lack of data

Non-UN Members

Andorra

Monaco

St. Vincent

Greenland

Dominica

Nauru

San Marino

Somaliland

Kiribati

Palau

Tonga

Taiwan

Liechtenstein

St. Kitts & Nevis

Tuvalu

Vatican City

Marshall Islands

St. Lucia

Vanuatu

Western Sahara

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16

The Failed States Index

The Big Movers for 2010

E

very year, a number of countries improve their score and ranking in the Failed States Index; similarly, other countries worsen their score and position. Below is a list of the major movers between 2009 and 2010.

Improving (by Position)

82nd

-3.8

Zimbabwe

-3.6

Belarus

82.3

78.7

2010 Score

66th

109th 121st

2009 Score

Move

Albania

2010 Position

Belarus

+12

2009 Position

Move +16

Improving (by Score)

114.0 110.2

+9

Syria

39th

48th

-2.9

Albania

70.0

67.1

+9

Russia

71st

80th

-2.6

Lebanon

93.5

90.9

+8

Serbia/Kosovo

78th

86th

-2.3

Uzbekistan

92.8

90.5

+6

Egypt

43rd

49th

-2.1

Myanmar

101.5

99.4

+6

Turkmenistan

59th

65th

-2.0

Bangladesh

98.1

96.1

+6

Brazil

113th 119th

-2.0

Bahamas

60.9

58.9

Worsening (by Position)

Worsening (by Position) 2009 Position

2010 Position

Move

2009 Score

2010 Score

Honduras

90th

76th

+3.0

Eritrea

90.3

93.3

-9

Cambodia

49th

40th

+2.8

Honduras

77.2

80.0

-8

Fiji

82nd

74th

+2.4

Guinea-Bissau

94.8

97.2

Iran

90.0

92.2

Move -14

-8

India

87th

79th

+2.2

-7

Mauritania

46th

39th

+1.9

Yemen

98.1 100.0

-7

South Africa

122nd 115th

+1.8

Italy

43.9

45.7

-6

Eritrea

36th

30th

+1.7

Fiji

78.8

80.5

-6

Iran

38th

32nd

+1.5

Sierra Leone

92.1

93.6

+1.5

Oman

47.2

48.7

-6

Djibouti

74th

68th

-6

El Salvador

91st

85th

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17

The Failed States Index

How is the Failed States Index Composed and Applied?

T

he strength of the Failed States Index is its ability to distill millions of pieces of information into a form that is relevant as well as easily digestible and informative. Daily, the Fund for Peace collects thousands

of reports and information from around the world, detailing the existing social, economic and political pressures faced by each of the 177 countries that we analyze.

The Fund for Peace’s software performs content analysis on this collected information. Through sophisticated search parameters and algorithms, the CAST software separates the relevant data from the irrelevant. Guided by 12 primary social, economic and political indicators (each split into an average of 14 subindicators), the CAST software analyzes the collected information using specialized search terms that flag relevant items. This analysis is then converted using an algorithm into a score representing the significance of each of the various pressures for a given country.

A screenshot of the CAST software content analysis.

compared with a comprehensive set of vital statistics— as well as human analysis—to ensure that the software has not misinterpreted the raw data. Though the basic data underpinning the Failed States Index is already freely and widely available electronically, the strength of the analysis is in the methodological rigor and the systematic integration of a wide range of data sources.

The content analysis is further triangulated with two other key aspects of the overall assessment process: quantitative analysis and qualitative inputs based on major events in the countries examined. The scores produced by the Fund for Peace’s software are then

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18

The Failed States Index

Who Uses The Failed States Index?

T

he Failed States Index and the CAST framework are used extensively by a variety of governments, institutions and corporations around the world. The Failed States Index itself is an annual snapshot of the entire

world and provides an important overview of the relative stability of countries throughout the world.

Beyond the Failed States Index, the underlying framework is also a useful tool for country-, region– and indicator-specific analysis.

Some Fans of the Failed States Index Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei, former head of the IAEA and 2005 Nobel Peace Prize Winner, said in 2010, “Egypt's presence near the top of The Failed States Index is a disaster that demands the urgent attention of the Egyptian people.”

The Failed States Index is featured annually in Foreign Policy magazine and gets wide attention in the U.S. and global media. It also attracts attention from governments, academics, international organizations, businesses and civil society groups.

The Failed States Index enjoys global reach. The edition was cited in 150 publications in 13 languages within its first week of being posted on The Fund for Peace website. In 2009, the Failed States Index was covered in 317 media outlets in 73 countries.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s November 2010 presentation to Congress of her strategic planning initiative for the State Department included a slide drawn from the Failed States Index.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates’ presentation of the Defense Department’s “Quadrennial Defense Review” in 2010 contained material based on the Failed States Index.

The Failed States Index is noticed and used by the people who matter. It has been cited by the U.S. Secretary of State in Congressional testimony and by the Secretary of Defense in the Quadrennial Defense Review. The Failed States Index has been the catalyst for a cabinet-level review of state institutions and capacity in Moldova and as a call to attention by the political opposition in Egypt.

In response to his country’s position in the 2007 Failed States Index, Moldovan Prime Minister Vasile Tarleve formed a task force to study the causes for Moldova’s scores.

USAID requested that the Failed States Index be made an integral part of their Country Analytic Support project, www.countrycompass.com

The Failed States Index and the CAST framework is frequently used by agencies from the World Bank to oil and mining companies, from government agencies in the United States and around the globe.

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The staffs of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund use the Failed States Index in their analysis of regional and national developments.

19

The Failed States Index

Who Uses the Failed States Index?

The strength of the Failed States Index is that it is more than a list of countries. Certainly, the ranking of states—from 2010’s most stable, Norway, to the least stable, Somalia—draws substantial press attention and comment. But what policy makers, international institutions, corporations, academics and analysts focus on most is the underlying data from the 12 indicators and the many more sub-indicators. This is the kind of information that not only explains the rankings themselves, but also key areas that need to be addressed to mitigate problems and improve state functioning and stability. It can also help in the consideration of public and private sector investment priorities as well as help private sector firms better identify and manage political and economic risk. As we have seen in several countries, this underlying data can also be used as a report card on how a government is meeting key challenges.

They All Use the Failed States Index International Institutions

• • • • •

World Bank

Foreign Government Agencies

•

International Monetary Fund United Nations NATO

•

Bundesministerium für wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung (Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation & Development), Germany Ministerie van Buitenlandse Zaken (Ministry of Foreign Affairs), Netherlands

African Union Academic and Research Institutions

U.S. Government Agencies

• • • • • •

U.S. Agency for International Development U.S. Army Corps of Engineers U.S. Army Pacific Command (PACOM)

• • •

Council on Foreign Relations National Defense University U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP)

U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency U.S. Department of State U.S. Marine Corps

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Corporate Sector

•

20

Multinational oil and mining companies use the Failed States Index as an integral part of their development of global security strategy.

The Failed States Index

Beyond The Failed States Index

T

he Failed States Index itself is just one of the many capabilities of The Fund for Peace’s content analysis software. The software has many other applications including specific risk assessment, and in-depth national-,

regional- and provincial-level analysis.

CAST has been used to perform analysis at a subregional level, from providing an assessment following the floods in Pakistan’s Sindh province to demonstrating how the situations in Mindanao in the south of the Philippines and Luzon in the north can be significantly different. Such regional-level analysis is critical in properly understanding state instability. As nations vary greatly from one another, often the regions within countries will also vary greatly. A country with a significant amount of instability in one region may be perceived as itself unstable overall, although the rest of the country is not experiencing instability. Instances such as these may include countries like Colombia (where although the FARC insurgency continues deep in the jungles and along the frontiers, the major cities such as Bogota, Medillin, Cali and Cartagena enjoy relative calm) or the Philippines (where the situation in the capital Manila is significantly different to that experienced in the southern island of Mindanao). This regional analysis can not only further expand the understanding of a country’s situation, but can also be used to highlight precisely where the pressure points exist for a country, and under precisely what conditions.

Along with the Failed States Index, The Fund for Peace’s Conflict Assessment Software Tool (CAST) has been the foundation of the Fund for Peace’s Country Assessments Reports Service and Country Profiles Program, using the content analysis to provide indepth assessments country-by-country.

Regional Analysis: Sindh Province, Pakistan Below: Demographic pressures differentiated regionally throughout Pakistan, pre-flood (left) and post-flood (right).

N

Balochistan

.W

. .F

ab nj Pu

h nd Si

N

Balochistan

.W

. .F

ab nj Pu

h nd Si

This analysis, coupled with regional contextualization, provides a unique informational tool for policy-makers to identify serious pressures and to enact sensible, wellinformed policies.

Above: An analysis of various indicators applying to Sindh province, pre-flood (left) and post-flood (right)

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21

The Failed States Index

About The Fund for Peace

T

he Fund for Peace is an independent, nonpartisan, 501(c)(3) non-profit research and educational organization that works to prevent violent conflict and promote sustainable security.

We promote sustainable security through research, training and education, engagement of civil society, building bridges across diverse sectors, and developing innovative technologies and tools for policy makers.

A leader in the conflict assessment and early warning field, the Fund for Peace focuses on the problems of weak and failing states. Our objective is to create practical tools and approaches for conflict mitigation that are useful to decision-makers.

patented Conflict Assessment System Tool (CAST), a content analysis software product that provides a conceptual framework and a data gathering technique for measuring conflict risk.

What Makes Us Unique • •

The Fund for Peace adopts a holistic approach to the issues stemming from weak and failing states.

We work at both the grassroots level with civil society actors and at policy levels with key decision makers.

•

The Fund for Peace has worked in over 50 countries with a wide range of partners in all sectors: governments, international organizations, the military, nongovernmental organizations, academics, journalists, civil society networks, and the private sector.

•

Combining social science techniques with information technology, we have produced the

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We produce The Failed States Index, an annual ranking of 177 countries across 12 indicators, that is published by Foreign Policy magazine.

Our Approach The Fund for Peace offers a wide range of initiatives focused on our central objective of promoting sustainable security, the ability of a state to solve its own problems peacefully without an external military or administrative presence. Our activities relate to six interconnected themes: Conflict Assessment; Early warning and State Building; Peace and Stability Operations; Foreign Policy; Civil Society & Human Rights; and Sustainable Development.

22

The Failed States Index

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CR-10-99-FS