The Failed States Index 2010
THE FAILED STATES INDEX | THE FUND FOR PEACE
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Contents
.
Background
4
What is the Failed States Index?
5
The Failed States Index 2010 in Brief
6
Performance by Region
7
Performance by Indicator
11
The Big Movers for 2010
17
How is the Failed States Index Composed and Applied?
18
Who Uses the Failed States Index?
19
Beyond the Failed States Index
21
About The Fund for Peace
22
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3
The Failed States Index
Background
W
eak and failing states pose a serious threat to the entire world. In today’s world, with is highly globalized economy, information systems and interlaced security, pressures on one fragile state can
have serious repercussions not only for that state and its people, but also for its neighbors and other states halfway across the globe. Witness in recent times, for example, the negative ripple-effects from weak and failing states such as Somalia, Libya, Yemen, Haiti and the Balkan states. mitigate the negative effects of state failure.
Since the end of the Cold War, a number of states have erupted into mass violence stemming from internal conflict. Some of these crises are ethnic conflicts. Some are civil wars. Others take on the form of revolutions. Many result in complex humanitarian emergencies. Though the dynamics may differ in each case, all of these conflicts stem from social, economic, and political pressures that have not been managed by professional, legitimate, and representative state institutions.
To have meaningful early warning, and effective policy responses, assessments must go beyond specialized area knowledge, narrative case studies and anecdotal evidence to identify and grasp broad social trends. An interdisciplinary combination of qualitative research and quantitative methodologies is needed to establish patterns and acquire predictive value. Information is critical. Without the right data, it is impossible to identify problems that may be festering ‘below the radar.’ Decision makers need access to this kind of information to implement effective policies.
Fault lines emerge between identity groups, defined by language, religion, race, ethnicity, nationality, class, caste, clan or area of origin. Tensions can deteriorate into conflict through a variety of circumstances, such as competition over resources, predatory or fractured leadership, corruption, or unresolved group grievances.
The Failed States Index, produced by The Fund for Peace, is a critical tool in highlighting not only the normal pressures that all states experience, but also in identifying when those pressures are pushing a state towards the brink of failure. By highlighting pertinent issues in weak and failing states, The Failed States Index—and the social science framework and software application upon which it is built—makes political risk assessment and early warning of conflict accessible to policy-makers and the public at large.
The reasons for state weakness and failure are complex but not unpredictable. It is critically important that the international community understand and closely monitor the conditions that create weak and failed states—and be prepared to take the necessary actions to deal with the underlying issues or otherwise
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4
The Failed States Index
What is The Failed States Index?
T
he Failed States Index is an annual ranking of 177 nations based on their levels of stability and capacity. First published in 2005, the Failed States Index continues to be a globally recognized, frequently cited and widely
Failed States Index 2010
Alert
Warning
Moderate
Sustainable
praised research product of an independent nongovernmental organization that addresses key 21st century international security challenges.
The Failed States Index is based on The Fund for Peace’s proprietary Conflict Assessment Software Tool (CAST) analytical platform. Based on comprehensive social science methodology, data from three primary sources is triangulated and subjected to critical review to obtain final scores for the Failed States Index.
Leaders and thinkers from government, international organizations, NGO, academia and the media use and refer to the Failed States Index because it is empirically based and has proven to be objective and relevant. Perhaps the most telling barometer of its credibility is the steady increase in the number of governments that respond to it, by seeking ways to improve their standing in the Failed States Index or using it as a component in making decisions related to foreign assistance.
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Millions of documents are analyzed every year, and by applying highly specialized search parameters, scores are apportioned for every country based on twelve key political, social and economic indicators and over 100 sub-indicators that are the result of years of painstaking expert social science research.
5
The Failed States Index
1.
Somalia
114.3
46.
Colombia
88.2
90.
2.
Chad
113.3
47.
Togo
88.1
=
3.
Sudan
111.8
48.
Syria
87.9
4.
Zimbabwe
110.2
49.
Egypt
87.6
5.
D.R. Congo
109.9
50.
Bhutan
87.3
=
6.
Afghanistan
109.3
51.
Philippines
87.1
95.
7.
Iraq
107.3
52.
Comoros
85.1
8.
C.A.R.
106.4
53.
Bolivia
9.
Guinea
105.0
54.
Israel/W Bank
le na b
e Su
st ai
at M od er
ni ng ar W
le rt A
Failed States Index 2010
Jordan
77.0
135.
Barbados
55.4
Morocco
77.0
=
Latvia
55.4
92.
Peru
76.9
137.
U.A.E.
52.4
93.
Benin
76.8
138.
Costa Rica
52.0
Dominican R.
76.8
139.
Qatar
51.8
Vietnam
76.6
140.
Estonia
50.7
96.
Mexico
76.1
141.
Hungary
50.1
84.9
97.
Sao Tome
75.8
142.
Poland
49.0
84.6
98.
Gabon
75.3
143.
Slovakia
48.8
10.
Pakistan
102.5
55.
Azerbaijan
84.4
99.
Senegal
74.6
144.
Oman
48.7
11.
Haiti
101.6
56.
Papua N G
83.9
100.
Namibia
74.5
145.
Malta
48.2
12.
Cote d’Ivoire
101.2
=
Zambia
83.9
101.
Armenia
74.1
146.
Lithuania
47.8
13.
Kenya
100.7
58.
Moldova
83.8
102.
Guyana
73.0
147.
Greece
45.9
14.
Nigeria
100.2
59.
Angola
83.7
103.
Kazakhstan
72.7
148.
Argentina
45.8
15.
Yemen
100.0
60.
Bosnia & Herz.
83.5
=
Macedonia
72.7
149.
Italy
45.7
16.
Myanmar
99.4
61.
Indonesia
83.1
105.
Suriname
72.5
150.
Mauritius
44.4
17.
Ethiopia
98.8
62.
China
83.0
106.
Paraguay
72.1
151.
Spain
43.5
18.
Timor-Leste
98.2
63.
Swaziland
82.8
107.
Samoa
71.1
152.
Czech Rep
41.5
19.
Niger
97.8
64.
Madagascar
82.6
108.
Micronesia
70.6
153.
South Korea
41.3
North Korea
97.8
65.
Nicaragua
82.5
109.
Ukraine
69.5
=
Uruguay
41.3
= 21.
Uganda
97.5
=
Turkmenistan
82.5
110.
Malaysia
69.2
155.
Chile
38.0
22.
Guinea-Bissau
97.2
67.
Lesotho
82.2
111.
Libya
69.1
156.
Slovenia
36.0
23.
Burundi
96.7
68.
Djibouti
81.9
112.
Belize
68.7
157.
Germany
35.4
24.
Bangladesh
96.1
69.
Ecuador
81.7
113.
Botswana
68.6
158.
United States
35.3
25.
Sri Lanka
95.7
=
Mozambique
81.7
114.
Cyprus
68.0
159.
France
34.9
26.
Cameroon
95.4
71.
Algeria
81.3
115.
Seychelles
67.9
160.
Singapore
34.8
Nepal
95.4
72.
Guatemala
81.2
=
South Africa
67.9
161.
U.K.
33.9
Malawi
93.6
=
Tanzania
81.2
117.
Brunei
67.6
162.
Portugal
33.1
Sierra Leone
93.6
74.
Fiji
80.5
118.
Tunisia
67.5
163.
Belgium
32.0
= 28. = 30.
Eritrea
93.3
75.
The Gambia
80.2
119.
31.
Congo (Rep.)
92.5
76.
Honduras
80.0
=
Brazil
67.4
164.
Japan
31.3
Jamaica
67.4
165.
Iceland
29.8
32.
Iran
92.2
77.
Cuba
79.4
121.
33.
Liberia
91.7
78.
Mali
79.3
=
Albania
67.1
166.
Ghana
67.1
=
34.
Lebanon
90.9
79.
India
79.2
123.
35.
Burkina Faso
90.7
80.
Russia
79.0
124.
Grenada
67.0
168.
Trinidad
66.1
=
36.
Uzbekistan
90.5
81.
Thailand
78.8
125.
Kuwait
61.5
37.
Georgia
90.4
82.
38.
Tajikistan
89.2
=
39.
Mauritania
89.1
40.
Rwanda
88.7
=
Cambodia
=
Canada
27.9
Netherlands
27.9
Australia
27.3
Luxembourg
27.3
170.
Austria
27.2
Belarus
78.7
126.
Bulgaria
61.2
171.
New Zealand
23.9
Venezuela
78.7
127.
Antigua
60.9
172.
Denmark
22.9
84.
Maldives
78.3
128.
Romania
60.2
173.
Ireland
22.4
85.
El Salvador
78.1
129.
Mongolia
60.1
174.
Switzerland
21.8
88.7
86.
Serbia/Kosovo
77.8
130.
Panama
59.3
175.
Sweden
20.9
Laos
88.7
87.
Saudi Arabia
77.5
131.
Croatia
59.0
176.
Finland
19.3
43.
Solomon Is.
88.6
88.
Cape Verde
77.2
132.
The Bahamas
58.9
177.
Norway
18.7
44.
Eq. Guinea
88.5
89.
Turkey
77.1
133.
Bahrain
58.8
45.
Kyrgyzstan
88.4
134.
Montenegro
57.3
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6
The Failed States Index
Performance by Region
T
he Fund for Peace divides the world into four regional groupings encompassing twelve smaller regional sub-groupings in order to better analyze and understand the implications of the Failed States Index for
Performance by Region
Alert
Warning
Moderate
Sustainable Ratings based on an average of the total Index scores of countries within each region.
every country relative to their “neighborhood.” No regional grouping is ever perfect. Nevertheless, the regional groupings reinforce the general scores of the 2010 Failed States Index: Western Europe is currently the most stable region in the world whilst South Asia, closely followed by East Africa, provides the most concern.
80 70 60 50 40 30 Western Europe
Eastern and Southeast Europe
Oceania
North America and the Caribbean
Central and South America
East and Southeast Asia
Maghreb and Middle East
Southern Africa
Central Asia and the Caucasus
7
West and Central Africa
20
East Africa
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90
South Asia
If each region was adjudged by the same scale that the Failed States Index assesses countries, then 9 of the world’s 12 regions would fall within the “Warning” category whilst two regions would fall within the “Alert” category.
Average Index Scores by Region
The Failed States Index
Regional Performance
North America and the Caribbean The Best Performers 166.
Canada
27.9
158.
United States
35.3
The Worst Performers 11.
Haiti
101.6
77.
Cuba
79.4
93.
Dominican Republic
76.8
96.
Mexico
76.1
South and Central America The Best Performers 155.
Chile
38.0
153.
Uruguay
41.3
148.
Argentina
45.8
The Worst Performers 46.
Colombia
88.2
53.
Bolivia
84.9
65.
Nicaragua
82.5
Western Europe The Best Performers 177.
Norway
18.7
176.
Finland
19.3
175.
Sweden
20.9
174.
Switzerland
21.8
173.
Ireland
22.4
The Worst Performer 149.
Italy
45.7
South, Central and Eastern Europe The Best Performers 156.
Slovenia
36.0
152.
Czech Republic
41.5
147.
Greece
45.9
The Worst Performers
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8
60.
Bosnia & Herzegovina
83.5
80.
Russia
79.0
82.
Belarus
78.7
The Failed States Index
Regional Performance
Western and Central Africa The Best Performer 121.
Ghana
67.1
The Worst Performers 2.
Chad
113.3
8.
Central African Republic
106.4
9.
Guinea
105.0
12.
Cote d’Ivoire
101.2
14.
Nigeria
100.2
Eastern Africa The Best Performer 115.
Seychelles
67.9
The Worst Performers 1.
Somalia
114.3
3.
Sudan
111.8
13.
Kenya
100.7
17.
Ethiopia
98.8
21.
Uganda
97.5
Southern Africa The Best Performers 115.
South Africa
67.9
113.
Botswana
68.6
The Worst Performers 4.
Zimbabwe
110.2
5.
D.R. Congo
109.9
28.
Malawi
93.6
31.
Republic of Congo
92.5
Middle East and North Africa The Best Performer 144.
Oman
48.7
The Worst Performers 7.
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9
Iraq
107.3
15.
Yemen
100.0
32.
Iran
92.2
34.
Lebanon
90.9
39.
Mauritania
89.1
The Failed States Index
Regional Performance
Central Asia and the Caucasus The Best Performer 103.
Kazakhstan
72.7
The Worst Performers 36.
Uzbekistan
90.5
37.
Georgia
90.4
38.
Tajikistan
89.2
45.
Kyrgyzstan
88.4
55.
Azerbaijan
84.4
South Asia The Best Performer 84.
Maldives
78.3
The Worst Performers 6.
Afghanistan
109.3
10.
Pakistan
102.5
24.
Bangladesh
96.1
25.
Sri Lanka
95.7
26.
Nepal
95.4
Southeast and East Asia The Best Performers 164.
Japan
31.3
160.
Singapore
34.8
153.
South Korea
41.3
The Worst Performers 16.
Myanmar
99.4
18.
Timor-Leste
98.2
19.
North Korea
97.8
Oceania The Best Performers 171.
New Zealand
23.9
168.
Australia
27.3
The Worst Performers
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10
43.
Solomon Islands
88.6
56.
Papua New Guinea
83.9
74.
Fiji
80.5
The Failed States Index
Performance by Indicator
T
he Failed States Index scores for every country are based on twelve key indicators, the result of years of social science research. The analysis of the individual indicators is just as important as the overall ranking.
Social Indicators
Political and Military Indicators
Mounting Demographic Pressures
Legitimacy of the State
Pressures on the population such as disease an natural disasters that make it difficult for the government to meet its social obligations.
Corruption and a lack of representativeness in the government directly undermine the social contract.
Massive Movement of Refugees or IDPs
Progressive Deterioration of Public Services
Pressures associated with population displacement. This strains public services, and has the potential to pose a security threat as groups are susceptible to politicization.
The provision of health, education, and sanitation services are a key aspect of the social contract.
Violation of Human Rights and Rule of Law Vengeance-Seeking Group Grievance When human rights are violated or unevenly enforced, the social contract is weakened.
When tension and violence exists between groups, it undermines the state’s ability to provide security. When security is not guaranteed, violence and fear may ensue.
Security Apparatus The security apparatus should have a monopoly on the use of legitimate force. When the security apparatus is fractured or when competing or parallel groups exist, this weakens the social contract.
Chronic and Sustained Human Flight When there is little opportunity, people migrate, leaving a vacuum of human capital.
Rise of Factionalized Elites
Economic Indicators
When local and national leaders engage in deadlock and brinksmanship for political gain, this undermines the social contract.
Uneven Economic Development When there are ethnic, religious, or regional disparities, the governed tend to be uneven in their commitment to the social contract.
Intervention of External Actors When the state cannot meet its obligations under the social contract, external actors often intervene to provide services or to manipulate the internal affairs for economic and political gain.
Poverty, Sharp or Severe Economic Decline Poverty and economic decline strain the ability of the state to meet its social obligations. Includes such things as inflation and unemployment.
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11
The Failed States Index
6
st ai
at
Social
Su
M od er
ni ng ar W
A
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e
na b
le
Performance by Indicators
Economic
Political and Military
Afghanistan
9.5
9.2
9.7
7.2
8.2
8.3
10.0
8.9
9.2
9.7
9.4
10.0
109.3
121
Albania
5.9
2.8
4.9
7.1
5.7
6.1
6.8
5.6
5.3
5.4
6.0
5.5
67.1
71
Algeria
6.7
6.5
8.2
6.1
7.1
5.1
7.5
6.5
7.6
7.5
6.8
5.7
81.3
59
Angola
8.4
6.9
5.9
5.6
9.1
5.0
8.1
8.0
7.3
5.9
6.8
6.7
83.7
127
Antigua and Barbuda
4.7
3.4
4.5
7.3
6.1
5.5
5.3
4.6
4.7
4.6
4.0
6.2
60.9
148
Argentina
4.6
2.2
4.5
3.8
5.8
5.1
3.6
3.7
3.8
2.4
3.2
3.1
45.8
101
Armenia
5.7
6.9
6.0
7.0
6.5
5.8
6.6
5.3
6.4
5.1
7.0
5.8
74.1
168
Australia
3.5
2.5
3.4
1.2
4.2
3.2
1.5
1.8
2.0
1.4
1.5
1.1
27.3
170
Austria
2.7
2.3
3.8
1.2
4.7
2.7
1.4
1.4
1.6
1.1
1.9
2.4
27.2
Azerbaijan
6.2
8.1
7.9
5.7
7.3
5.9
8.0
5.5
7.2
7.3
7.9
7.4
84.4
132
Bahamas
6.2
3.2
4.7
5.8
6.4
5.0
5.5
4.4
2.8
4.8
4.8
5.3
58.9
133
Bahrain
4.5
2.6
6.5
3.5
6.0
4.0
6.7
3.1
5.4
4.7
6.1
5.7
58.8
Bangladesh
8.4
6.7
8.9
8.4
8.8
7.9
8.0
8.3
7.4
8.1
8.9
6.3
96.1
Barbados
4.0
3.2
4.9
6.5
6.7
5.4
4.1
3.1
2.8
4.5
4.5
5.7
55.4
55
24 135 82
Belarus
6.7
3.7
6.4
4.8
6.7
6.7
8.7
6.2
7.9
6.2
7.8
6.9
78.7
163
Belgium
2.6
1.8
4.4
1.3
4.7
3.7
2.3
2.1
1.5
1.8
3.0
2.8
32.0
112
Belize
6.5
5.1
4.9
6.7
7.1
6.2
6.2
5.8
3.8
5.7
4.6
6.1
68.7
93
Benin
7.7
6.7
4.2
6.7
7.4
7.4
6.4
8.4
5.5
5.3
4.1
7.0
76.8
50
Bhutan
7.0
7.3
7.7
7.1
8.5
7.5
6.9
7.3
7.9
5.8
7.7
6.6
87.3
53
Bolivia
7.6
4.7
7.7
6.7
8.7
6.8
7.1
7.5
6.6
6.5
8.3
6.7
84.9
60
Bosnia and Herzegovina
5.3
7.1
8.7
5.6
7.1
5.7
8.0
5.4
5.9
7.2
9.2
8.3
83.5
113
Botswana
9.0
6.6
4.1
5.9
7.7
6.1
5.3
6.4
4.8
4.0
2.9
5.8
68.6
119
Brazil
6.3
3.7
6.2
4.8
8.8
4.0
6.2
6.0
5.4
6.7
5.1
4.2
67.4
117
Brunei Darussalam
5.4
4.2
6.6
3.8
7.8
3.7
7.7
3.5
6.9
5.9
7.4
4.7
67.6
126
Bulgaria
4.5
3.9
4.5
5.8
6.1
5.3
6.0
5.0
4.6
5.1
4.6
5.8
61.2
35
Burkina Faso
9.3
6.2
5.9
6.6
8.8
8.0
7.7
8.8
6.6
7.3
7.6
7.9
90.7
23
Burundi
9.4
8.4
7.8
6.5
8.4
8.2
7.6
9.0
7.7
7.1
7.9
8.7
96.7
40
Cambodia
8.0
5.3
6.9
7.9
7.1
7.7
8.7
8.3
7.7
6.4
7.7
7.0
88.7
26
Cameroon
8.2
7.6
7.5
8.1
8.7
7.0
9.0
8.0
7.8
7.8
8.7
7.0
95.4
Canada
3.2
2.5
3.1
2.1
4.5
2.5
1.5
1.5
1.9
1.2
2.4
1.5
27.9
Cape Verde
7.7
4.1
4.4
8.2
6.0
7.0
7.2
7.4
6.0
5.5
6.1
7.6
77.2
8
Central African Republic
9.1
9.3
8.9
6.1
9.2
8.4
9.0
9.2
8.8
9.7
9.1
9.6
106.4
166 88
2
Chad
9.4
9.5
9.8
8.3
9.3
8.5
9.9
9.6
9.6
9.9
9.8
9.7
113.3
155
Chile
4.1
2.6
3.4
2.5
4.5
4.6
1.8
4.0
3.4
2.3
1.5
3.3
38.0
62
China
8.8
6.6
8.0
5.9
9.0
4.3
8.3
7.0
9.0
5.8
7.2
3.1
83.0
46
Colombia
6.7
9.0
7.2
8.3
8.3
4.6
7.7
5.8
6.9
7.7
8.0
8.0
88.2
52
Comoros
7.5
3.9
5.6
6.4
6.1
7.6
8.2
8.5
6.8
7.5
8.0
9.0
85.1
Costa Rica
5.5
4.6
3.9
4.5
6.5
5.4
3.9
4.1
3.3
2.5
3.2
4.6
52.0
Cote d'Ivoire
8.4
8.0
8.9
8.2
7.9
8.0
9.0
8.3
8.3
8.2
8.5
9.5
101.2
Croatia
4.7
5.9
5.2
4.6
5.3
6.2
4.8
3.7
4.5
4.4
4.3
5.4
59.0
Cuba
6.7
5.7
5.5
7.2
6.6
6.3
7.0
5.0
7.5
7.3
7.1
7.5
79.4
114
Cyprus
4.8
4.5
7.6
5.0
7.6
4.3
5.2
3.4
3.6
5.3
7.9
8.8
68.0
152
Czech Republic
3.3
2.8
3.4
4.3
4.1
4.4
3.4
3.6
3.3
2.1
3.3
3.5
41.5
D.R. Congo
9.9
9.6
8.6
8.0
9.5
8.7
8.8
9.0
9.4
9.8
8.9
9.7
109.9
Denmark
2.8
1.7
3.0
1.8
2.0
3.1
1.1
1.3
1.3
1.5
1.0
2.3
22.9
138 12 131 77
5 172
www.fundforpeace.org
12
The Failed States Index
st ai
at
Social
Economic
Political and Military
Su
M od er
ni ng ar W
A
le rt
e
na b
le
Performance by Indicators
68
Djibouti
7.9
6.8
5.9
5.5
6.5
6.4
7.2
7.3
6.6
6.0
7.1
8.7
81.9
93
Dominican Republic
6.5
5.1
5.8
8.3
7.8
5.9
5.6
6.9
6.5
5.6
6.8
6.0
76.8
69
Ecuador
6.3
6.1
6.4
7.5
8.0
6.7
7.4
7.0
5.8
6.6
7.8
6.1
81.7
49
Egypt
7.4
6.7
8.2
6.0
7.4
6.8
8.4
6.1
8.2
6.5
8.1
7.8
87.6
85
El Salvador
8.1
5.7
5.9
7.1
7.9
6.6
6.8
7.0
6.7
6.7
4.5
5.1
78.1
44
Equatorial Guinea
8.4
2.3
6.8
7.4
8.8
4.7
9.6
8.4
9.4
8.4
8.4
5.9
88.5
30
Eritrea
8.7
7.2
6.1
7.1
6.2
8.6
8.8
8.6
8.4
7.6
7.9
8.1
93.3
140
Estonia
4.5
4.2
5.0
4.1
5.2
5.0
4.5
3.3
3.3
2.6
5.5
3.5
50.7
17
Ethiopia
9.2
7.8
8.6
7.5
8.5
8.0
7.7
8.1
8.7
7.8
9.0
7.9
98.8
74
Fiji
5.9
4.2
7.4
6.6
7.5
6.7
8.9
5.5
6.7
6.8
8.2
6.1
80.5
176
Finland
2.3
1.7
1.2
2.2
1.7
3.0
0.7
1.2
1.5
1.0
1.0
1.8
19.3
159
France
3.7
3.1
5.6
1.8
5.3
3.6
1.8
1.5
2.7
1.6
2.0
2.2
34.9
98
Gabon
7.0
5.9
3.0
6.4
7.9
5.9
7.8
6.6
6.4
5.7
7.2
5.5
75.3
75
Gambia
7.6
6.0
4.6
6.2
6.8
7.5
7.6
7.2
7.4
5.8
6.2
7.3
80.2
37
Georgia
6.2
7.8
8.4
5.8
7.2
6.5
9.0
6.4
7.3
8.0
9.1
8.7
90.4
157
Germany
3.3
4.0
4.7
2.6
4.7
3.6
2.1
1.7
2.3
2.2
2.0
2.2
35.4
122
Ghana
7.1
5.3
5.2
7.9
6.4
5.8
5.1
7.6
4.7
2.6
4.2
5.2
67.1
147
Greece
4.5
2.8
4.2
4.5
4.6
4.3
4.6
3.7
3.4
3.4
2.4
3.5
45.9
123
Grenada
5.8
2.9
4.2
7.6
6.7
6.1
6.4
3.9
4.6
5.4
5.8
7.6
67.0
Guatemala
7.4
5.6
6.8
6.7
8.0
6.9
7.1
6.8
6.9
7.2
6.3
5.5
81.2
Guinea
8.3
7.5
8.2
8.6
8.7
8.9
9.8
9.0
9.5
9.4
9.3
7.8
105.0
Guinea-Bissau
8.5
6.8
5.8
7.1
8.4
8.3
9.1
8.8
8.1
8.9
8.9
8.5
97.2
Guyana
6.1
3.6
6.2
8.0
7.7
6.9
6.8
5.3
5.2
6.6
5.1
5.5
73.0
11
Haiti
9.3
5.6
7.3
8.6
8.3
9.2
9.3
9.5
8.3
8.2
8.4
9.6
101.6
76
72 9 22 102
Honduras
7.6
4.1
5.0
6.5
8.3
7.5
7.5
6.9
6.3
7.0
6.8
6.5
80.0
141
Hungary
3.3
3.1
3.2
4.8
5.9
5.4
5.7
3.6
3.3
2.2
5.0
4.6
50.1
165
Iceland
0.8
1.1
1.0
3.0
2.3
7.2
2.0
1.5
1.9
1.1
2.0
5.9
29.8
79
India
8.1
5.2
7.8
6.5
8.7
5.1
5.8
7.2
6.1
7.6
6.2
4.9
79.2
61
Indonesia
7.2
6.5
6.3
7.3
7.9
6.7
6.9
6.7
6.5
7.3
7.1
6.7
83.1
32
Iran
6.4
8.3
8.1
7.1
7.3
5.5
9.0
5.9
9.4
8.9
9.5
6.8
92.2
7
Iraq
8.5
8.7
9.3
9.3
8.8
7.6
9.0
8.4
9.1
9.5
9.6
9.5
107.3
Ireland
2.0
1.6
1.0
2.0
2.8
3.3
1.6
2.4
1.5
1.4
1.5
1.3
22.4
Israel/West Bank
7.0
7.8
9.5
3.8
7.7
4.4
7.3
6.8
7.8
6.5
8.2
7.8
84.6
149
Italy
4.0
3.9
4.8
2.8
4.5
4.7
4.5
3.1
3.0
4.2
4.0
2.2
45.7
119
Jamaica
6.0
2.8
4.5
6.4
6.5
6.8
6.8
6.2
5.5
5.8
4.0
6.1
67.4
164
Japan
4.0
1.2
3.6
2.1
2.6
3.5
1.8
1.3
3.2
2.1
2.2
3.7
31.3
90
Jordan
6.8
7.9
6.9
4.8
7.2
6.2
5.9
5.2
7.0
5.9
6.5
6.7
77.0
Kazakhstan
5.8
4.0
5.7
4.1
6.2
6.7
7.5
5.5
7.1
6.3
7.6
6.2
72.7
13
Kenya
9.1
8.7
8.9
7.9
8.7
7.4
9.3
8.1
8.0
7.5
8.7
8.4
100.7
125
173 54
103
Kuwait
5.5
4.1
5.1
4.1
6.1
3.8
6.0
3.1
6.5
4.9
7.2
5.1
61.5
45
Kyrgyzstan
7.8
5.2
7.4
7.3
7.9
7.9
8.4
6.3
7.6
7.6
7.4
7.6
88.4
40
Laos
7.9
5.9
6.8
6.7
5.8
7.3
8.3
8.1
8.7
7.4
8.5
7.3
88.7
Latvia
4.3
4.3
4.6
5.0
6.0
6.3
5.4
4.2
3.5
3.0
4.3
4.5
55.4
34
Lebanon
6.8
8.9
9.0
7.0
7.2
6.1
7.3
6.0
6.8
8.9
8.8
8.1
90.9
67
Lesotho
9.2
4.8
5.2
6.7
5.7
8.7
7.2
8.5
6.3
5.9
7.2
6.8
82.2
135
www.fundforpeace.org
13
The Failed States Index
33
st ai
at
Social
Economic
Political and Military
Su
M od er
ni ng ar W
A
le rt
e
na b
le
Performance by Indicators
Liberia
8.4
8.2
6.3
6.7
8.3
8.0
7.1
8.5
6.5
6.7
8.1
8.9
91.7
111
Libya
5.7
4.3
5.8
4.2
6.9
5.3
7.3
4.2
8.3
5.2
7.1
4.8
69.1
146
Lithuania
4.3
2.9
4.0
5.0
6.0
5.7
3.9
3.2
3.3
2.2
3.2
4.1
47.8
168
Luxembourg
1.9
1.7
3.2
1.2
2.3
2.8
2.7
2.2
1.3
2.1
3.6
2.3
27.3
103
Macedonia
4.8
4.6
7.6
6.7
7.1
6.6
6.9
4.6
5.1
5.6
6.5
6.6
72.7
64
Madagascar
8.6
4.8
5.4
5.3
7.7
7.2
7.1
8.6
5.8
6.4
7.7
8.0
82.6
28
Malawi
9.2
6.5
6.2
8.4
8.3
9.2
8.1
8.6
7.3
5.4
7.8
8.6
93.6
110
Malaysia
6.3
5.0
6.6
3.9
7.0
5.1
5.9
5.0
6.8
5.9
6.3
5.4
69.2
84
Maldives
6.3
6.4
5.2
7.1
5.3
7.0
7.3
7.1
7.3
6.1
7.4
5.8
78.3
78
Mali
8.7
4.8
6.3
7.5
7.0
8.1
5.4
8.5
5.0
7.0
4.0
7.0
79.3
Malta
3.7
5.8
4.2
4.1
4.4
4.2
4.1
3.2
3.7
4.0
2.0
4.8
48.2
Mauritania
8.5
6.4
8.0
5.2
6.8
7.7
7.5
8.3
7.3
7.9
7.9
7.6
89.1
Mauritius
3.7
1.2
3.5
2.6
5.7
4.1
5.1
4.2
3.7
3.7
3.3
3.6
44.4
Mexico
6.8
4.1
5.8
6.8
8.0
6.5
6.6
5.8
5.8
7.5
5.5
6.9
76.1
145 39 150 96 108
Micronesia
7.0
3.1
4.5
8.1
6.8
6.4
6.6
6.6
2.8
5.1
5.5
8.1
70.6
58
Moldova
6.4
4.3
6.9
7.8
6.8
7.0
7.9
6.7
6.8
7.8
8.0
7.4
83.8
129
Mongolia
5.6
1.4
4.3
2.3
5.9
5.7
6.2
5.3
6.4
4.8
5.3
6.9
60.1
134
Montenegro
4.9
4.2
6.6
2.7
4.4
4.9
4.5
3.8
5.3
4.5
5.9
5.6
57.3
90
Morocco
6.8
6.6
6.6
6.4
7.6
6.5
7.2
6.6
6.8
5.4
6.2
4.3
77.0
69
Mozambique
8.8
3.5
4.8
7.8
7.5
7.8
7.5
8.9
7.3
6.2
5.4
6.2
81.7
16
Myanmar
8.5
8.3
8.7
6.3
9.3
8.2
9.6
8.5
9.1
8.2
8.2
6.5
99.4
100
Namibia
7.5
5.7
5.6
7.5
8.9
6.5
4.8
6.9
5.8
5.6
3.7
6.0
74.5
Nepal
8.1
7.0
9.2
6.2
9.0
8.3
8.1
7.6
8.7
7.7
8.5
7.0
95.4
166
Netherlands
2.7
3.2
4.7
1.9
3.2
3.0
1.2
1.5
1.3
1.1
1.7
2.4
27.9
171
26
New Zealand
1.5
1.4
3.3
2.1
4.3
4.0
1.0
1.6
1.5
1.1
1.2
0.9
23.9
65
Nicaragua
6.8
5.0
6.3
6.9
7.9
7.9
7.6
7.6
6.2
6.5
7.0
6.8
82.5
19
Niger
9.6
6.5
8.0
6.5
7.8
9.2
8.9
9.7
8.5
7.3
7.6
8.2
97.8
14
Nigeria
8.4
5.8
9.5
8.1
9.3
6.9
9.4
9.1
8.8
9.3
9.4
6.2
100.2
19
North Korea
8.5
5.6
7.2
5.0
8.8
9.6
9.9
9.6
9.5
8.1
7.8
8.2
97.8
177
Norway
1.7
1.6
1.3
1.2
2.4
2.6
0.8
1.1
1.6
1.2
1.1
2.1
18.7
144
Oman
4.7
1.1
3.0
1.7
2.7
4.5
6.0
4.5
6.7
5.2
6.6
2.0
48.7
10
Pakistan
8.1
8.9
9.4
7.9
8.4
6.2
8.9
7.3
8.9
9.7
9.5
9.3
102.5
130
Panama
6.3
3.5
4.4
5.0
7.5
5.6
4.8
5.5
4.5
5.2
3.0
4.0
59.3
Papua New Guinea
7.5
4.2
7.1
7.7
9.0
6.3
7.8
8.3
6.3
6.5
7.1
6.1
83.9
56 106
Paraguay
6.2
1.5
6.3
5.8
8.0
6.2
8.3
5.8
6.7
5.9
7.5
3.9
72.1
92
Peru
6.4
4.5
6.7
7.0
8.0
5.6
6.9
6.5
5.5
7.4
6.9
5.5
76.9
51
Philippines
7.7
6.7
7.6
7.0
7.4
5.8
8.6
6.3
7.5
7.9
8.0
6.6
87.1
142
Poland
4.7
3.2
3.3
5.9
4.8
5.0
4.5
3.7
3.8
2.4
3.7
4.0
49.0
162
Portugal
3.7
1.8
2.6
2.2
3.7
4.7
1.9
3.6
3.5
1.4
1.2
2.8
33.1
139
Qatar
4.5
3.0
5.2
3.4
5.3
4.1
6.3
2.6
4.7
2.7
5.0
5.0
51.8
Republic of the Congo
8.7
7.7
6.3
6.4
8.1
7.8
9.1
8.6
7.7
7.6
7.1
7.4
92.5
Romania
5.4
3.2
5.6
4.9
5.6
5.6
6.0
4.8
4.3
4.1
5.2
5.5
60.2
80
Russia
6.7
5.4
7.1
6.0
7.9
5.1
8.1
5.5
8.0
6.8
7.6
4.8
79.0
40
Rwanda
9.1
7.0
8.5
7.0
7.2
7.0
7.5
7.4
7.5
5.0
8.0
7.5
88.7
Samoa
6.9
3.1
5.1
8.0
6.6
6.2
6.4
5.1
4.5
5.8
5.3
8.1
71.1
31 128
107
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14
The Failed States Index
st ai
at
Social
Economic
Political and Military
Su
M od er
ni ng ar W
A
le rt
e
na b
le
Performance by Indicators
97
Sao Tome & Principe
7.5
4.1
5.1
7.0
5.9
7.3
7.3
7.3
5.1
6.0
6.7
6.5
75.8
87
Saudi Arabia
6.3
6.2
7.8
3.5
7.3
3.1
8.2
4.1
9.1
7.8
7.8
6.3
77.5
99
Senegal
7.6
6.2
6.1
5.8
7.0
6.2
5.9
7.4
6.0
6.3
4.2
5.9
74.6
86
Serbia/Kosovo
5.6
6.9
7.8
5.3
6.9
6.2
6.8
5.2
5.6
6.5
8.0
7.0
77.8
Seychelles
6.1
4.3
5.0
4.5
6.9
5.8
7.0
4.5
5.9
5.6
6.0
6.3
67.9
115
Sierra Leone
9.1
7.1
6.7
8.3
8.8
8.6
7.7
9.1
6.8
5.9
7.8
7.7
93.6
160
Singapore
2.8
0.9
2.9
2.5
3.1
3.7
4.2
1.7
4.4
1.5
4.1
3.0
34.8
143
Slovakia
4.1
2.2
4.8
5.2
5.6
5.0
4.1
3.8
3.8
2.1
3.9
4.2
48.8
156
Slovenia
3.4
1.4
3.4
3.3
5.0
4.0
2.8
3.0
3.0
2.8
1.3
2.6
36.0
Solomon Islands
8.3
4.8
7.0
5.4
7.9
8.0
8.1
8.2
6.8
7.0
8.0
9.1
88.6
28
43
Somalia
9.6
10.0
9.7
8.3
8.0
9.6
10.0
9.6
9.9
10.0
10.0
9.6
114.3
115
South Africa
8.4
7.0
5.6
4.4
8.5
5.0
5.8
5.5
4.7
4.1
5.9
3.0
67.9
153
South Korea
3.6
3.3
3.9
4.8
2.5
2.8
3.9
2.3
2.8
1.5
3.6
6.3
41.3
151
Spain
3.7
2.8
6.3
1.8
5.0
4.4
1.6
2.4
2.5
5.3
5.7
2.0
43.5
Sri Lanka
7.3
9.4
9.6
6.7
8.7
5.9
8.6
6.4
8.8
8.5
9.4
6.4
95.7
Sudan
8.8
9.8
9.9
8.7
9.5
6.7
9.9
9.3
9.9
9.8
9.9
9.6
111.8
105
Suriname
6.0
3.7
6.4
6.7
7.7
6.6
6.5
5.1
5.8
6.0
5.8
6.2
72.5
63
Swaziland
9.1
4.2
4.2
6.2
6.2
8.2
8.6
7.6
7.7
6.6
6.9
7.3
82.8
175
Sweden
2.7
2.7
1.3
1.8
2.1
2.2
0.8
1.3
1.8
1.3
1.3
1.6
20.9
174
1
25 3
Switzerland
2.4
1.5
3.3
1.8
2.6
2.4
1.0
1.4
2.2
1.2
1.0
1.0
21.8
48
Syria
5.9
8.9
8.3
6.6
7.8
6.3
8.6
5.5
8.8
7.6
7.8
5.8
87.9
38
Tajikistan
8.0
6.2
6.9
6.3
7.1
7.5
8.9
7.3
8.7
7.3
8.4
6.6
89.2
72
Tanzania
8.2
7.3
6.4
6.1
6.7
7.2
6.5
8.3
5.9
5.6
6.0
7.0
81.2
81
Thailand
6.7
6.7
7.8
4.7
7.5
4.3
8.0
5.4
7.0
7.4
8.0
5.3
78.8
18
Timor-Leste
8.6
9.1
7.5
6.1
7.0
8.4
9.1
8.7
7.0
8.8
8.7
9.2
98.2
47
Togo
8.0
6.2
5.6
7.0
7.6
8.0
7.5
8.4
7.7
7.6
7.6
6.9
88.1
124
Trinidad and Tobago
5.6
3.1
4.9
7.3
7.2
4.8
5.9
5.2
5.4
6.0
5.6
5.1
66.1
118
Tunisia
5.7
3.4
5.4
5.2
7.0
5.0
6.4
5.7
7.5
6.5
6.0
3.7
67.5
89
Turkey
6.3
6.3
8.0
4.8
7.8
5.8
6.0
5.4
5.5
7.4
7.8
6.0
77.1
65
Turkmenistan
6.8
4.6
6.3
5.4
7.4
6.6
8.4
7.0
9.0
7.7
7.7
5.6
82.5
21
Uganda
8.7
8.9
8.5
6.9
8.4
7.2
7.9
8.2
7.6
8.7
8.6
7.9
97.5
109
Ukraine
5.6
3.1
6.9
6.6
6.2
6.3
7.2
4.0
5.3
3.8
7.9
6.6
69.5
137
United Arab Emirates
4.4
3.2
4.7
3.3
5.7
3.9
6.7
3.4
5.9
2.7
4.0
4.5
52.4
161
United Kingdom
3.2
3.0
4.1
1.8
4.5
3.0
1.6
2.3
2.3
2.7
3.2
2.2
33.9
158
United States
3.1
3.2
3.4
1.1
5.4
4.0
2.5
2.5
3.7
1.6
3.3
1.5
35.3
153
Uruguay
4.3
1.3
2.0
5.6
5.0
4.0
2.6
3.4
2.5
3.4
3.0
4.2
41.3
36
Uzbekistan
7.7
5.1
7.4
6.6
8.5
7.0
8.5
6.4
9.3
8.8
9.0
6.2
90.5
82
Venezuela
6.3
5.1
6.8
6.7
7.6
5.8
7.2
6.1
7.2
6.7
7.5
5.7
78.7
95
Vietnam
6.9
5.2
5.3
5.9
6.5
6.6
7.3
6.4
7.3
6.0
7.0
6.2
76.6
15
Yemen
8.6
8.3
8.2
7.2
8.6
7.9
8.7
8.6
8.0
8.9
9.2
7.8
100.0
56
Zambia
9.0
7.3
5.4
7.1
7.3
8.0
7.5
8.0
5.9
5.0
6.1
7.3
83.9
Zimbabwe
9.4
8.6
8.8
9.7
9.4
9.6
9.6
9.4
9.5
9.2
9.5
7.5
110.2
4
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15
The Failed States Index
Performance by Indicators
1.
Sudan
1.
Sudan
2.
Somalia
2.
Chad
2.
D. R. Congo
3.
Niger
3.
Somalia
3.
Zimbabwe
4.
Afghanistan
4.
Afghanistan
4.
Chad
5.
Chad
5.
Sri Lanka
5.
Nigeria
Best Performer
Best Performer 177.
1.
Somalia
1.
Zimbabwe
1.
Zimbabwe
2.
Sudan
2.
Iraq
2.
North Korea
3.
D. R. Congo
3.
Sudan
3.
Somalia
4.
Chad
4.
Haiti
4.
Haiti
5.
Sri Lanka
5.
Guinea
5.
Malawi
Best Performer
Singapore
177.
Finland
Best Performer
United States
177.
Sweden
1.
Somalia
1.
Somalia
2.
Afghanistan
2.
Sudan
2.
Sudan
3.
North Korea
3.
Chad
3.
Chad
4.
Chad
4.
North Korea
4.
Iraq
5.
Sudan Best Performer
177.
Finland
5.
Guinea Best Performer
177.
Factionalized Elites
Somalia Human Rights and Rule of Law
1.
Denmark
5.
Pakistan Best Performer
177.
Finland
Niger
1.
Somalia
1.
Afghanistan
2.
Chad
2.
Chad
2.
Chad
3.
Somalia
3.
Sudan
3.
D. R. Congo
4.
North Korea
4.
D. R. Congo
4.
Somalia
5.
Haiti
5.
Afghanistan
5.
Sudan
Best Performer 177.
External Intervention
1.
Security Apoparatus
Legitimacy of the State
177.
Poverty and Decline
Iceland
177.
Iceland
Best Performer
177.
Best Performer
Public Services
Uneven Development
D. R. Congo Group Grievance
1.
Human Flight
Refugees and IDPs
Demographic Pressure
Best and Worst Performers by Indicator
Best Performer
Norway
177.
Finland
Best Performer 177.
New Zealand
Why Are Some Countries Missing? Not every nation is included in the Failed States Index, which only measures nations recognized by the United Nations and, in some cases, excludes tiny nations due to a dearth of data. Hence, some countries are not included: UN Member States excluded due to lack of data
Non-UN Members
Andorra
Monaco
St. Vincent
Greenland
Dominica
Nauru
San Marino
Somaliland
Kiribati
Palau
Tonga
Taiwan
Liechtenstein
St. Kitts & Nevis
Tuvalu
Vatican City
Marshall Islands
St. Lucia
Vanuatu
Western Sahara
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16
The Failed States Index
The Big Movers for 2010
E
very year, a number of countries improve their score and ranking in the Failed States Index; similarly, other countries worsen their score and position. Below is a list of the major movers between 2009 and 2010.
Improving (by Position)
82nd
-3.8
Zimbabwe
-3.6
Belarus
82.3
78.7
2010 Score
66th
109th 121st
2009 Score
Move
Albania
2010 Position
Belarus
+12
2009 Position
Move +16
Improving (by Score)
114.0 110.2
+9
Syria
39th
48th
-2.9
Albania
70.0
67.1
+9
Russia
71st
80th
-2.6
Lebanon
93.5
90.9
+8
Serbia/Kosovo
78th
86th
-2.3
Uzbekistan
92.8
90.5
+6
Egypt
43rd
49th
-2.1
Myanmar
101.5
99.4
+6
Turkmenistan
59th
65th
-2.0
Bangladesh
98.1
96.1
+6
Brazil
113th 119th
-2.0
Bahamas
60.9
58.9
Worsening (by Position)
Worsening (by Position) 2009 Position
2010 Position
Move
2009 Score
2010 Score
Honduras
90th
76th
+3.0
Eritrea
90.3
93.3
-9
Cambodia
49th
40th
+2.8
Honduras
77.2
80.0
-8
Fiji
82nd
74th
+2.4
Guinea-Bissau
94.8
97.2
Iran
90.0
92.2
Move -14
-8
India
87th
79th
+2.2
-7
Mauritania
46th
39th
+1.9
Yemen
98.1 100.0
-7
South Africa
122nd 115th
+1.8
Italy
43.9
45.7
-6
Eritrea
36th
30th
+1.7
Fiji
78.8
80.5
-6
Iran
38th
32nd
+1.5
Sierra Leone
92.1
93.6
+1.5
Oman
47.2
48.7
-6
Djibouti
74th
68th
-6
El Salvador
91st
85th
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17
The Failed States Index
How is the Failed States Index Composed and Applied?
T
he strength of the Failed States Index is its ability to distill millions of pieces of information into a form that is relevant as well as easily digestible and informative. Daily, the Fund for Peace collects thousands
of reports and information from around the world, detailing the existing social, economic and political pressures faced by each of the 177 countries that we analyze. The Fund for Peace’s software performs content analysis on this collected information. Through sophisticated search parameters and algorithms, the CAST software separates the relevant data from the irrelevant. Guided by 12 primary social, economic and political indicators (each split into an average of 14 subindicators), the CAST software analyzes the collected information using specialized search terms that flag relevant items. This analysis is then converted using an algorithm into a score representing the significance of each of the various pressures for a given country.
A screenshot of the CAST software content analysis.
compared with a comprehensive set of vital statistics— as well as human analysis—to ensure that the software has not misinterpreted the raw data. Though the basic data underpinning the Failed States Index is already freely and widely available electronically, the strength of the analysis is in the methodological rigor and the systematic integration of a wide range of data sources.
The content analysis is further triangulated with two other key aspects of the overall assessment process: quantitative analysis and qualitative inputs based on major events in the countries examined. The scores produced by the Fund for Peace’s software are then
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18
The Failed States Index
Who Uses The Failed States Index?
T
he Failed States Index and the CAST framework are used extensively by a variety of governments, institutions and corporations around the world. The Failed States Index itself is an annual snapshot of the entire
world and provides an important overview of the relative stability of countries throughout the world. Beyond the Failed States Index, the underlying framework is also a useful tool for country-, region– and indicator-specific analysis.
Some Fans of the Failed States Index Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei, former head of the IAEA and 2005 Nobel Peace Prize Winner, said in 2010, “Egypt's presence near the top of The Failed States Index is a disaster that demands the urgent attention of the Egyptian people.”
The Failed States Index is featured annually in Foreign Policy magazine and gets wide attention in the U.S. and global media. It also attracts attention from governments, academics, international organizations, businesses and civil society groups. The Failed States Index enjoys global reach. The edition was cited in 150 publications in 13 languages within its first week of being posted on The Fund for Peace website. In 2009, the Failed States Index was covered in 317 media outlets in 73 countries.
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s November 2010 presentation to Congress of her strategic planning initiative for the State Department included a slide drawn from the Failed States Index. U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates’ presentation of the Defense Department’s “Quadrennial Defense Review” in 2010 contained material based on the Failed States Index.
The Failed States Index is noticed and used by the people who matter. It has been cited by the U.S. Secretary of State in Congressional testimony and by the Secretary of Defense in the Quadrennial Defense Review. The Failed States Index has been the catalyst for a cabinet-level review of state institutions and capacity in Moldova and as a call to attention by the political opposition in Egypt.
In response to his country’s position in the 2007 Failed States Index, Moldovan Prime Minister Vasile Tarleve formed a task force to study the causes for Moldova’s scores. USAID requested that the Failed States Index be made an integral part of their Country Analytic Support project, www.countrycompass.com
The Failed States Index and the CAST framework is frequently used by agencies from the World Bank to oil and mining companies, from government agencies in the United States and around the globe.
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The staffs of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund use the Failed States Index in their analysis of regional and national developments.
19
The Failed States Index
Who Uses the Failed States Index?
The strength of the Failed States Index is that it is more than a list of countries. Certainly, the ranking of states—from 2010’s most stable, Norway, to the least stable, Somalia—draws substantial press attention and comment. But what policy makers, international institutions, corporations, academics and analysts focus on most is the underlying data from the 12 indicators and the many more sub-indicators. This is the kind of information that not only explains the rankings themselves, but also key areas that need to be addressed to mitigate problems and improve state functioning and stability. It can also help in the consideration of public and private sector investment priorities as well as help private sector firms better identify and manage political and economic risk. As we have seen in several countries, this underlying data can also be used as a report card on how a government is meeting key challenges.
They All Use the Failed States Index International Institutions
• • • • •
World Bank
Foreign Government Agencies
•
International Monetary Fund United Nations NATO
•
Bundesministerium für wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung (Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation & Development), Germany Ministerie van Buitenlandse Zaken (Ministry of Foreign Affairs), Netherlands
African Union Academic and Research Institutions
U.S. Government Agencies
• • • • • •
U.S. Agency for International Development U.S. Army Corps of Engineers U.S. Army Pacific Command (PACOM)
• • •
Council on Foreign Relations National Defense University U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP)
U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency U.S. Department of State U.S. Marine Corps
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Corporate Sector
•
20
Multinational oil and mining companies use the Failed States Index as an integral part of their development of global security strategy.
The Failed States Index
Beyond The Failed States Index
T
he Failed States Index itself is just one of the many capabilities of The Fund for Peace’s content analysis software. The software has many other applications including specific risk assessment, and in-depth national-,
regional- and provincial-level analysis.
CAST has been used to perform analysis at a subregional level, from providing an assessment following the floods in Pakistan’s Sindh province to demonstrating how the situations in Mindanao in the south of the Philippines and Luzon in the north can be significantly different. Such regional-level analysis is critical in properly understanding state instability. As nations vary greatly from one another, often the regions within countries will also vary greatly. A country with a significant amount of instability in one region may be perceived as itself unstable overall, although the rest of the country is not experiencing instability. Instances such as these may include countries like Colombia (where although the FARC insurgency continues deep in the jungles and along the frontiers, the major cities such as Bogota, Medillin, Cali and Cartagena enjoy relative calm) or the Philippines (where the situation in the capital Manila is significantly different to that experienced in the southern island of Mindanao). This regional analysis can not only further expand the understanding of a country’s situation, but can also be used to highlight precisely where the pressure points exist for a country, and under precisely what conditions.
Along with the Failed States Index, The Fund for Peace’s Conflict Assessment Software Tool (CAST) has been the foundation of the Fund for Peace’s Country Assessments Reports Service and Country Profiles Program, using the content analysis to provide indepth assessments country-by-country.
Regional Analysis: Sindh Province, Pakistan Below: Demographic pressures differentiated regionally throughout Pakistan, pre-flood (left) and post-flood (right).
N
Balochistan
.W
. .F
ab nj Pu
h nd Si
N
Balochistan
.W
. .F
ab nj Pu
h nd Si
This analysis, coupled with regional contextualization, provides a unique informational tool for policy-makers to identify serious pressures and to enact sensible, wellinformed policies.
Above: An analysis of various indicators applying to Sindh province, pre-flood (left) and post-flood (right)
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21
The Failed States Index
About The Fund for Peace
T
he Fund for Peace is an independent, nonpartisan, 501(c)(3) non-profit research and educational organization that works to prevent violent conflict and promote sustainable security.
We promote sustainable security through research, training and education, engagement of civil society, building bridges across diverse sectors, and developing innovative technologies and tools for policy makers. A leader in the conflict assessment and early warning field, the Fund for Peace focuses on the problems of weak and failing states. Our objective is to create practical tools and approaches for conflict mitigation that are useful to decision-makers.
patented Conflict Assessment System Tool (CAST), a content analysis software product that provides a conceptual framework and a data gathering technique for measuring conflict risk.
What Makes Us Unique • •
The Fund for Peace adopts a holistic approach to the issues stemming from weak and failing states. We work at both the grassroots level with civil society actors and at policy levels with key decision makers.
•
The Fund for Peace has worked in over 50 countries with a wide range of partners in all sectors: governments, international organizations, the military, nongovernmental organizations, academics, journalists, civil society networks, and the private sector.
•
Combining social science techniques with information technology, we have produced the
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We produce The Failed States Index, an annual ranking of 177 countries across 12 indicators, that is published by Foreign Policy magazine.
Our Approach The Fund for Peace offers a wide range of initiatives focused on our central objective of promoting sustainable security, the ability of a state to solve its own problems peacefully without an external military or administrative presence. Our activities relate to six interconnected themes: Conflict Assessment; Early warning and State Building; Peace and Stability Operations; Foreign Policy; Civil Society & Human Rights; and Sustainable Development.
22
The Failed States Index
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CR-10-99-FS