The Fund for Peace
Briefing: Ensuring Compliance in Syria Jacob Grunberger methods for their destruction.
state’s declared intentions to disarm, a full declaration of its arsenal is not always
A
situation
entailing
non-compliance
forthcoming. In Syria, President Assad’s
following a disarmament agreement is not
chemical arsenal and infrastructure are
farfetched.
publicly
more extensive than Qaddafi’s and the state
announced that in order to contribute to
is in the midst of a civil war, making
normalizing relations with the West, it would
weapons easier to conceal. Additionally,
abandon its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) production programs.1 In early 2004,
insofar as there have not been serious actions taken to punish countries for
it
In
began
breaking international law, there is not an extremely convincing argument for states
facilities with the assistance of the United
that deem chemical weapons’ use to be
States and inspected and verified by the
integral to their survival to eliminate their
OPCW. Initially, OPCW inspections revealed
WMDs. In the case of Syria, there is a further
a chemical weapons arsenal that was
political incentive to hide some weapons for
he details of the destruction of the
smaller than reported by the US. While the
future use in order to accuse the opposition
Syrian government’s one thousand
process
forces
tons of chemical agents are still being
anticipated, it nonetheless proceeded and
longevity due to lack of support for a
finalized by the United States, Russia,
Libya
fractured opposition containing extremist
and
the
December 2011.2 The disarmament effort
Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW),
came to a halt in 2007 when disputes arose
the
Organisation
implementing
was
given
to an
be
and
slower
extension
than until
of
theft,
securing
the
regime’s
elements.
between the Qaddafi government and the
Punishment
U.S over the distribution of payments for weapons disposal and management
international arms prohibitions can either be multilateral or unilateral, both having
another question looms large pertaining to
responsibilities.3 Just as progress was about
their
the chemical disarmament in Syria. Namely,
to be made after a cooperative agreement
disadvantages. Multilateral actions tend to
how should the international community
between Libya and Italy was arranged, the
be better at showing that there is broad
react if Syria or any other States Party to the
uprising in Libya began in February 2011.
international commitment to a developing
CWC does not comply with the agreed upon
After the fall of the Qaddafi regime in
norm. These actions are less controversial
framework?
October
National
and set an accepted precedent for future
Transition Council reported the existence of
decisions regarding other forms of WMDs.
To answer these questions, this brief will
two sites containing previously undeclared
However, many multilateral approaches
serve as an introduction to a series of
chemical weapons. The OPCW subsequently
may be tepid as a result of states wishing to
papers designed to explore some of the
visited Libya in January 2012 and verified
either protect their interests or decrease
different
international
the declared weapons as sulfur mustard
another state’s perceived effort for power
community may employ if such a dilemma
gas, not loaded into munitions.4 Further,
projection. For example, one could argue
were to arise. For more information on
artillery
that the Russian government has prioritized
chemical weapons, please refer to our previous briefa which focuses on the history
chemical weapons was discovered.5
insulating the Assad regime, undermining the norm against chemical weapons use,
of
The case of Libya highlighted that despite a
due to its unwillingness to lose its access to
use,
their
the
the
proved
CWC
1997
methods
of
the
Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). In addition to the negotiations, however,
their
body
for
to
Libya
destruction of its weapons and production
the
acceded
2003,
composition,
and
2011,
for the
the
Libyan
purpose
of launching
own
for
transgressions
respective
advantages
of
and
Briefing: Ensuring Compliance in Syria
the Mediterranean via its naval base in
perpetrating state to play victim and distract
Tartus and its unwillingness to lose a source
attention from human rights abuses.
of lucrative
arms
contracts.6
Unilateral
actions, conversely, can be much stronger
Part of the current predicament in crafting a
than cooperative ones because they are less
response to a potential breaching of the
susceptible to the hurdles presented by
CWC agreement by Syria is that there are no
having multiple interests at play. Further, if
agreed
that works to prevent violent conflict and promote
unilateral measures end up being successful, they can provide a roadmap for
compliance or punishing non-compliance. That said, ad hoc solutions have been
sustainable security. We promote sustainable security
future multilateral stances against countries
utilized in the past and have, beyond the
through research, training and education, engagement of
that commit these infractions. That said,
previous two distinctions, employed either
these
more
military or non-military means to attempt to
be
ensure compliance. The following examples
power
demonstrate each of these methods, both
The Fund for Peace is an independent, nonpartisan, 501 (c)(3) non-profit research and educational organization
civil society, building bridges across diverse sectors, and developing innovative technologies and tools for policy
actions
controversial
tend
to
because
interpreted
as
be
far
they
can
interest-based
upon
methods
of
coercing
makers. A leader in the conflict assessment and early
projections that do not rely on global
of which are
warning field, The Fund for Peace focuses on the
deliberation,
concerning their morality and success.
potentially
allowing
the
associated with debates
problems of weak and failing states. Our objective is to create practical tools and approaches for conflict mitigation that are useful to decision-makers.
Military: Operation Desert Fox, 1998 One
action taken
inspectors in protest of Saddam Hussein’s
against a state for violating an international
actions. Eventually Iraq chose to once again
agreement took place in 1998 in response
open its facilities to international inspectors,
to Saddam Hussein’s failure to comply with
although already by December 1997 the
UN weapons inspections. On April 3, 1991,
government declared that certain suspect
the United Nations Security Council (UNSC)
“presidential palaces” were off limits.8 In
passed Resolution 687, officially ending the
1998, Iraq not only completely denied
No part of this publication may be reproduced or
first Persian Gulf War, returning Kuwait to free and sovereign status.7 One tenet of the
access to some palaces, but also ceased cooperation with UNSCOM. Despite protests
transmitted in any form or by any means without prior
resolution called for Iraq to eradicate
against military action from China, Russia,
written consent from The Fund for Peace.
WMDs, WMD production capabilities, and
and France, the U.S. and U.K. chose to
associated delivery vehicles. To ensure that
ignore the wishes of the rest of the UNSC
these precautions against future use were
and
met, the UNSC established the United
campaign against Iraq, designed to punish
Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM) to
Saddam Hussein for not being forthcoming
inspect
the
about his WMD programs. The ultimate
Association
action entailed striking one hundred targets
Copyright © 2013 The Fund for Peace.
All rights reserved.
Series Editor Patricia Taft Report Written by Jacob Grunberger
example
and
of military
verify,
International Atomic (IAEA), the
along Energy
with
destruction of Iraq’s
WMD
capabilities.
within
embarked
Iraq
upon
that
were
a
four-day
suspected
air
of
contributing to WMD programs: air defense systems, Republican Guard units, airfields,
The Fund for Peace Publication
From the beginning and throughout the
and “economic” targets.9 The extent of the
FFP : TTCVR1322 (Version 10A)
nineties, Iraq worked to hinder UNSCOM’s
success of the attack is not entirely known,
ability to achieve its mandate by denying entry to certain suspect sites. On October
but it seems to have crippled Iraq’s ability to produce terror weapons as demonstrated
29, 1997, Iraq claimed that the inspection
by the absence of WMDs during Operation
teams were too biased toward Western
Iraqi Freedom five years later.
Circulation: PUBLIC The Fund for Peace 1720 I Street NW, 7
sentiments
and
expelled
all
American
inspectors, causing UNSCOM to remove all
T: +1 202 223 7940 F: +1 202 223 7947 Washington, D.C. 20006 www.fundforpeace.org
www.fundforpeace.org
2
The Fund for Peace
Briefing: Ensuring Compliance in Syria
Non-Military: International Sanctions Against Iran’s Nuclear Program One of non-military action taken against a
have caused the population to grow tired of
moderate Mohammad Javad Zarif to run the
state violating international agreement took
the hard line approach that existed in the
foreign ministry, removing the nuclear file
place in 2010 as a result of an IAEA report of
state
and
from the more hard-line Supreme National
Iranian
safeguard
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.11 It is
Security Council, and having a historic
agreements placed upon it by the global
hypothesized that the worsening economic
phone conversation with Barack Obama.
community. On June 9, 2010 the UNSC
situation in Iran ultimately led to the
passed Resolution 1929, which imposed
election of the moderate cleric Hassan
The ensuing briefs will attempt to weigh the
multilateral sanctions on the Iranian government. Some sanctions included the
Rouhani, who has portrayed himself as eager to make a deal with the West in order
benefits and costs of various methods of multilateral and unilateral, military and non-
freezing
to
military
non-compliance
of
assets
with
of
the
Islamic
under
improve
Ayatollah
the
Iranian
Khomeini
economy
and
actions
that
can
be
used
in
Revolutionary Guard Corps and Islamic
preserve its right to maintain a peaceful
response to States Parties that abrogate
Republic of Iran Shipping Lines, the ban of
nuclear program.12 In his short tenure as
their obligations in dismantling weapons of
conventional sales to Iran, the prohibition of
president of Iran, Rouhani has proven that
mass destruction. As with many efforts, the
ballistic missile activities, and a ban on
international sanctions may have been a
ultimate answer will likely comprise of some
certain nuclear and missile investment by
successful
already
sort of amalgamation of these strategies but
Iran.10 These sanctions, along with years of
undertaken a number of actions that would
either way, it is important to understand
human rights and nuclear sanctions from
suggest a greater interest in negotiating
their efforts and their results to create a
the United States and European Union, have
with the West than his predecessor such as
system that ultimately forces compliance
led to the high levels of inflation that may
freeing 80 political prisoners, appointing
and achieves deterrence.
strategy.
He
has
Endnotes a. 1. 2. 3. 4.
5. 6.
7.
URL located at http://library.fundforpeace.org/ttcvr1313 "Libya | Country Profiles | NTI." Nuclear Threat Initiative. http:// www.nti.org/country-profiles/libya/chemical/ Ibid Ibid "OPCW Inspectors Verify Newly Declared Chemical Weapons Materials in Libya." Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. http:// www.opcw.org/the-opcw-and-libya/opcw-inspectors-verify-newlydeclared-chemical-weapons-materials-in-libya/ Ibid Amos, Howard. "News Analysis: Russia Damages Image in Arab Spring | Business | The Moscow Times." The Moscow Times | Russia's only daily English-language newspaper. http://www.themoscowtimes.com/ business/article/news-analysis-russia-damages-image-in-arabspring/442712.html Condron, Captain Sean M.. "JUSTIFICATION FOR UNILATERAL ACTION IN RESPONSE TO THE IRAQI THREAT: A CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF OPERATION
www.fundforpeace.org
8. 9. 10.
11.
12.
3
DESERT FOX." Military Law Review 161 (1999): 151-180. https:// www.jagcnet.army.mil/DOCLIBS/ MILITARYLAWREVIEW.NSF/0/670ad594f019a54885256e5b0057789b/ $FILE/ATT8Q8VH/Volume161Condron.pdf Ibid "Factsheets : Operation Desert Fox." Air Force Historical Studies Office Home. http://www.afhso.af.mil/topics/factsheets/factsheet.asp?id=18632 "Fact Sheet on the new UN Security Council Sanctions on Iran | The White House." The White House. http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/ fact-sheet-new-un-security-council-sanctions-iran Gladstone, Rick. "Iran' ™s Double-Digit Inflation Worsens." The New York Times. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/02/world/middleeast/iransdouble-digit-inflation-worsens.html Warrick, Joby, and Jason Rezaian. "Iran's economic crisis deepens as Rouhani prepares to take office." The Washington Post. http:// articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-08-02/world/41002240_1_hassanrouhani-iran-s-nuclear-deal
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