residential Property MARKET OVERVIEW AND OUTLOOK
publication 5 / 2014
JUNE 2014
Residential Market Update
The annual change in the residential property market is now at 10.7%, which is slightly above long-term growth trends
Given the usual seasonal slowdown coming into winter and recent change in stance of the federal fiscal policy, the Australian residential property market recorded its first negative monthly change in a year and closed May at -1.9% monthly growth, according to RP Data. This was in contrast to the 0.7% monthly change recorded in April. The second quarter of 2014 is now seeing dwelling values up by 0.7%, compared to 2.6% quarterly change at the close of April. Our view is that not too much emphasis should be placed on monthly volatility, and that the fundamental growth drivers remain present. Auction clearance rates weighted average across the capital cities, as recorded by RP Data, is now at 60% (higher stats recorded by APM at around 70%) which is indicative of a robust market. The Australian dwelling values are now 5.5%, on average, across the capital cities, above their previous peak dwelling value. A major positive of the seasonal slowdown is that it provides flexibility for the RBA to keep interest rates “lower for longer” which should accommodate continued strength in the residential property market. There was positive news after the recent release of the Australian GDP Growth rate over 2014. The national economy grew by a seasonally adjusted 1.1% over the first quarter of the year, nudging its annual change up to 3.5%. This was compared to the December quarter, which closed at 0.8%, and the annual growth to the end of 2013, which was 2.8%. The growth figures were higher than expected for the Australian economy and
were lead by the strength in the mining sector, which accounted for 80% of the growth figure. The RBA, in its recent meeting on June 3rd, has left rates on hold at 2.50% again, stating, “monetary policy is appropriately configured to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the target”. Unemployment rate has remained at 5.9%, while the participation rate was adjusted to 64.7% for the last month. The Westpac – Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index, which tracks the local consumer confidence, improved in its most recent release and is now at 93.2 points. This is a 0.2% change, and its move to below 100 points was driven largely by the federal budget (6.6% down from before the released of the recent budget). The AUD is now buying 0.9373 of the USD and this is 0.2% more than the exchange rate last month. The exchange rate improved after the recent released of the higher than expected GDP growth rate, but has since eased back to its position now. Median House and Unit prices across Australia were at $575,000 and $480,000, respectively. They have recorded a trend of 0.7% and -1.2% over the past quarter, respectively. New home sales as recorded by the HIA were up 2.9% over the past month of April and 6% over the past quarter. The HIA and Commonwealth Bank tracked Housing Affordability index moved favourably by shifting up 2.1% over the March quarter of 2014, and is now 10.8% annually. New Dwelling approvals were also up 15.1% over the past year to May, but changed -1.6% last month.
Dwelling trend year on year 18%
16.6% Dwelling Trend YoY (%)
16% 14% 12% 9.9%
10%
9.7%
8% 5.9%
6%
5.7% 4.3%
4%
2.6% 1.4%
2% 0
Sydney ( NSW )
Melbourne ( VIC )
Darwin ( NT )
Brisbane ( QLD )
Source: RP DATA
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FUTURE ESTATE RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET UPDATE – JUNE 2014
Perth ( WA )
Adelaide ( SA )
Canberra ( ACT )
Hobart ( TAS )
Key statistics MAY 2014
ECONOMIC GROWTH WORLDWIDE 2013 US, EUROPE & JAPAN 2013 AUS annual to march 2014 AUSTRALIAN 1ST quarter 2014
Consumer Sentiment Index
AUD BUYS
3.0% 2.2% 3.5% 1.1%
0.9373 USD 0.2%
Westpac - Melbourne institute
UPDATED on 12th JUNE 2014
93.2
0.2% in MAY
GDP growth
2014
Australian Employment UNEMPLOYMENT 5.9%
RBA STATS 0% 0.6%
PARTICIPATION
in 1 MONTH
-1.9%
5.5%
132 pts
1.7%
13.9%
$ 27,890
monthly
10.7% adjusted value of total dwelling commitments
0.7%
Property Council/ ANZ Property Industry Confidence Index
housing finance
quarterly
Australia wide snapshot
HIA-COMMBANK HOUSING AFFORDABILITY INDEX
76.2
64.7%
in Q1 2014
annual
CASH RATE 2.50% INFLATION 2.90%
Difference from TROUGH Dwelling Value
Difference from Peak Dwelling Value
Dwelling Values
Median House Price
$ 575,000
Median Unit Price
$ 480,000
New Home Sales
2.9 %
Weekly House Rent $ 431 Rental Yield 3.9% Weekly Unit Rent $ 434 Rental Yield 4.7%
New Dwelling Approvals
-1.6%
Source: ABS, RP DATA, HIA, RBA, Westpac - Melbourne Institute, REIA
FUTURE ESTATE RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET UPDATE – JUNE 2014
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Residential Market Update
Future estate capital city rating summary STATE
CAPITAL CITY
FUTURE ESTATE SCORE
OVERVIEW
NSW
SYDNEY
Sydney’s FE score remained constant this month, with little change to any leading market statistics.
VIC
MELBOURNE
Melbourne’s score was marginally up from last month, given an improvement in the asking price index.
QLD
BRISBANE
WA
PERTH
Perth’s score was also unchanged this month. Leading market statistics recorded little change.
SA
ADELAIDE
Adelaide’s score marginally declined this month. The asking price index moved unfavourably, even while the vacancy rates were rated “Good”.
ACT
CANBERRA
Canberra’s score declined this month after last month’s increase. Given the poor outlook for the property market locally, the asking price was negative.
NT
DARWIN
Darwin’s score declined this month. Lead by affordability and expectations, the asking price shifted to a large negative, even as auction clearances were excellent.
TAS
HOBART
Hobart’s score declined again this month. Early signs of growth last month were wiped off with April’s poor performance, and thus affected the FE score.
Brisbane’s score was unchanged this month, with leading statistics remaining constant.
* Score is out of 5 as indicated by out of 5: Higher score indicates a stronger property market with positive outlook, whereas a lower score indicates a softer market with lower growth prospects. ** Data for the Future Estate June scores as at 1 June, 2014
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FUTURE ESTATE RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET UPDATE – JUNE 2014
Source: Future Estate Research
auction clearance rates often due to the differences in the way they collect and present data.
Auction Clearance Rates over the long weekend produced above long term average results for the major capital cities. Sydney’s records, as stated by APM, were at 74% from 393 auctions that were tracked by the organisation. RP Data has recorded the figure to be closer to 66% from 568 auctions for the week ending June 8th. The Real Estate institute of Victoria has yet to release figures for the June 8th weekend, but its June 1st results were 73% clearance rate from 897 auctions. Melbourne recorded a 70% auction clearance rate by APM, off 257 tracked auctions over the week. The RP Data clearance rate for the city was closer to 61% off 333 auctions over the week. Real Estate Institute of Victoria produced a 61% result too, off 298 auctions. The differences among the results provided by auction clearance rate data recorders are
Nevertheless, the residential property market has cooled from its late 2013 and early 2014 highs as of late due mainly to the normal seasonal slow down and softer consumer sentiment post the tougher budget stance. However, it is important to note that international fiscal policies, such as that managed by the European Central Bank, have recently moved to employ negative interest rates. These rates are making it easier for Australian banks to access capital and funding, thereby allowing local consumers to access credit at cheaper rates. This improvement in affordability is likely to be an important driver, and likely continue to provide a moderate and sustainable market growth rate in the near term.
Property auction clearance rates: week ending 8TH JUNE Auction Clearance Rates 80% 70%
74%
73%
70% 66%
61%
61% 60% 50% 40% 30%
Auction clearance rates remain well above historical levels, despite significantly higher stock volumes, which continues to illustrate the strength of underlying demand
20% 10% 0
Australian Property Monitors
RP Data
REIV/REINSW* Sydney
Melbourne
FUTURE ESTATE RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET UPDATE – JUNE 2014
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Residential Market Update
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS PEAK and TROUGH (%) Change from Previous Peak and Trough (%) All capital cities are now well above previous trough levels, although Adelaide, Darwin, Brisbane and Hobart remain below previous peaks
21.1
22%
20.8
18% 15.0
13.9
14%
8.7
10%
Change (%)
22%
12.3
6%
2.3
21.1
14%
18%
Change (%)
15.0 14%
Change (%)
-4%
10%
-5.8
12.3 -10%
Sydney (NSW)
6%
0.5
7.3
-3.1 -5.8
-1.0 -3.1 Sydney (NSW)
Perth (WA)
Melbourne Canberra -5.8 Adelaide (VIC) (ACT) (SA)
Capital Cities
-10% Sydney (NSW)
Perth (WA)
Melbourne Canberra
Adelaide
Darwin
Brisbane
(QLD) For(VIC) the first (ACT) time in 12(SA) months,(NT) dwelling values across Australia’s capital cities showed a monthly fall of 1.9% in May, mainly contributed by Melbourne with a -3.6% decline, which is not uncommon with the lead up to the June 2014 end of financial year and cooler climate conditions of the autumn months. However, over the past quarter, capital city dwelling values are up more than 0.6%. Over the growth cycle to date, which commenced in June 2012, capital city dwelling values are up 13.9% which has been largely contributed by strong market conditions in Sydney (+21.1%).
The median national dwelling value can be split into the median house value, at $575,000 (slightly down on last month due to a weaker auction clearance rate since late
6
Change from Previous Peak (%)
-1.0
0.2
-10%
-8%
Darwin (NT)
0.2
Source: RP DATA
-8%
-4%
6.3 0.5
FUTURE ESTATE RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET UPDATE – JUNE 2014
-8.3
7.3
6.3
5.8 Melbourne Canberra Adelaide (VIC) (ACT) 8.7 (SA)
Perth (WA)
2.3 5.8
2.3 -4%
2% 0
-3.1
12.3
8.7
13.9 10%
2% 0
6%
13.9
-8%
Chang Previo Trough
-1.0
20.8
15.0
Chang Previo Peak (%
20.8
2% 0
18%
21.1
6.3
5.8
Change from Previous Peak and Trough (%)
0.5 Change from Previous Peak and Trough (%)0.2 22%
7.3
Darwin (NT) -8.3
Brisbane (QLD)
Hobart (TAS)
Change from Previous Peak (%) Change from Previous Trough* (%)
Change from Previous Trough* -8.3 (%)
Brisbane (QLD)
Hobart (TAS)
Hobart (TAS) February
when the capital city clearance rate hit 76%), and the median unit value, at $480,000 remains stable. Sydney continues to be the dominant city recording a median house value of $800,000 at the close of April 2014, having progressed by 21%% in the past year (median dwelling price $678,500 respectively). Even though Sydney’s median unit remains the same with no movement in value at $576,000 for the month in spite of a small $2,000 reduction in the house value, Sydney still remains the most expensive city in Australia. The most positive outlier for the past three months ending May 2014 was Darwin with the highest rental yields (5.8% for both houses and units) and 5.5% capital growth.
quarterly capital city house and unit price trend 7%
House Price Trend Over Quarter (%)
6.3%
6%
Unit Price Trend Over Quarter (%)
5% 4% 3%
2.7% 2.4%
2.2%
1.9%
2%
1.2%
1.0%
1%
0.8%
0.6% 0.2%
0%
0 -0.2%
-1% -2%
Darwin was the standout performer for the quarter, with some volatility in results after an extended period of capital growth during 2013 and early 2014. It is noted that historically markets generally slow down somewhat leading into winter
-1.7%
-1.8% -2.7%
-3%
-3.1%
-4%
Darwin ( NT )
Sydney ( NSW )
Brisbane ( QLD )
Adelaide ( SA )
Canberra ( ACT )
Hobart ( TAS )
Perth ( WA )
Melbourne ( VIC )
Source: RP DATA
Gross Rental Yields capital city house and unit gross rental yields 7%
Gross Rental Yields
6%
5.8% 5.8%7%
5%
6%
5.3%
5.2% 5.2% 5.8% 5.8%
4.6%
5.2% 5.2%
5%
4%
5.0%
4.9%
5.3%
4.3% 4.6%
4.3% 5.0%
4.3%
4.8% 4.2% 4.9%
4.3%
4.7% 4.8%
3.8%
4.2% 3.8%
4%
4.4%
4.7%
3.4%
4.4%
Typical rental yields have remained relatively constant with some yield contraction due to capital appreciation
3.4%
3% 3%
2% 2%
1%
1%
0
0
Darwin ( NT )
Hobart Darwin ( NT )) ( TAS
Source: RP DATA
Brisbane Hobart ( TAS ) ) ( QLD
Canberra Brisbane ) ( QLD( ACT )
Adelaide Adelaide Canberra ( ACT ) ( SA ) ( SA )
Perth Perth ( WA ) ( WA )
Sydney Sydney ( NSW ( NSW ) )
HouseHouse GrossGross Rental Yield (%) Rental Yield (%)
Melbourne Melbourne ( VIC) ) ( VIC Units Gross Units Gross Rental Yield (%) Rental Yield (%)
FUTURE ESTATE RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET UPDATE – JUNE 2014
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Residential Market Update
Capital City House and Unit Median Prices State
Capital City
Median House Price ($)
Median Unit Price ($)
Dwelling Trend YTD* (%)
New South Wales
Sydney
$800,000
$576,000
3.8%
Victoria
Melbourne
$612,000
$468,000
1.1%
Queensland
Brisbane
$482,500
$370,000
1.4%
South Australia
Adelaide
$415,000
$330,000
1.4%
Western Australia
Perth
$544,500
$445,000
-1.2%
Tasmania
Hobart
$370,000
$320,000
4.2%
Northern Territory
Darwin
$590,000
$455,000
5.0%
Australian Capital Territory
Canberra
$560,000
$410,000
1.0%
Source: RP DATA
Key Investment Themes Theme
Summary
Key growth opportunities
§§ Sustainable
Key value opportunities
§§ Discounts to
Yield Growth
§§ Rental
above-market capital growth
comparable properties; new areas to demonstrate growth
income and sustainable above market yield
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Future Estate View
Comments
§§ Capital cities set to drive the growth
§§ Population growth likely to be
this year, supported by the larger regional centres especially in Queensland emerging from the dip in activity in early 2013 §§ Sydney offering continued sustainability in growth in the Inner Western and Eastern Suburbs §§ Melbourne market continues to grow steadily
one of the key drivers of property market growth §§ Dwelling undersupply is a subsequent factor with critical influence; state building restrictions play a role §§ Long term affordability; cash rate set to expansionary setting on record lows §§ International investor interest with lower AUD and overseas restrictions
§§ Distressed opportunities have
§§ Value continues to be
reduced due to improvement in the market health §§ Adelaide and Hobart continue to demonstrate high affordability and potential of growth §§ Outer South and North Western Sydney seeing strong fundamentals; infrastructure upgrades will drive growth
demonstrated at the asset level, rather than capital city level §§ Pockets of opportunities as lifestyle trends emerge – i.e. inner city former industrial suburbs emerging as residential growth hubs
§§ Darwin, Brisbane and Perth, along
§§ Yield compression is a concern in
with Canberra remain high yield markets due to affordability constraints and dwelling undersupply §§ Regional centers and Gold Coast showing improving yields, which are generally a leading indicator to dwelling price increases
the major capital cities as dwelling values set to further expand in 2014 §§ Largely set on construction expenditure; if housing supply is strong, there could be potential for stable yield §§ Rental growth currently not likely to outstrip dwelling value growth
FUTURE ESTATE RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET UPDATE – JUNE 2014
Key Cyclical Themes Cyclical Outlook
Summary
Future Estate View
Comments
Global economy and policy
§§ US Federal Reserve has plans
§§ Indirect impact on residential §§ Global negative impacts on
to curtail QE policy §§ Chinese growth is estimated to be 7.5% for 2014 §§ US economy is growing at an estimated 2.5% p.a.
property market via local property markets are consumer confidence, access easing, given favourable to credit and changes to exchange rate and local cash price growth areas rate changes §§ No negative impacts §§ Weaker AUD is leading currently, due to current to international investor RBA policies interest
Domestic growth and policy
§§ ABS released a Q3 2013 growth §§ Lowered cash rate and rate of 0.6%, which can be annualised to 2.5% §§ Local economy is being assisted by the low Australian Dollar
improved affordability is assisting in housing market growth §§ Unemployment, at 5.8% and a lower participation rate is starting to become an issue for the RBA
§§ Likely slight increase in unemployment, which combined with inflation rate on the lower end of the RBA preferred range may lead to further interest rate cuts in the first two quarters of the upcoming year.
§§ REIA reporting 28.5% (26% in §§ Lower interest rates have §§ Increasing house prices Housing QLD) of household income is translated to strong auction likely to be off-set by lower affordability spent on mortgage payments, clearance rates of over 80% interest rates lowest in a decade in the major capital cities, §§ Historic low interest rates §§ The median house price/ areas with high employment and new home buyer grants income ratio is about 4.5, which §§ Affordable inner city suburbs stimulating owner occupier is low compared to Asia & are experiencing growth property demand; investors Europe noticing high growth areas Population growth
§§ Population growth was
§§ Population growth expected §§ Impact on housing demand / recorded at 1.8% over the to rise in 2014, driven mainly supply imbalance substantial year in 2012 by overseas skilled migration – housing shortage too from §§ 394,200 persons annual §§ Migration to Australia reduced construction activity increase in period ending concentrated in capital cities and investment December 2012 of NSW, VIC and WA, which §§ QLD and WA major interstate §§ WA recorded highest has resulted in home value beneficiaries, while VIC growth: 3.5% growth grows through international §§ Population recently reached 23M migration
§§ Below-trend dwelling Dwelling development continues construction
Consumer confidence
§§ Consumer confidence
Household savings / demand for credit
§§ Household savings ratio
emerging, with stronger market fundamentals §§ Investor confidence substantially improved from lows in 2012 remains elevated at ~10% of income – back to 1980’s levels §§ Demand for housing credit still comparatively low
§§ House approvals have
§§ 25,000 fewer homes built
seen a decline as of late, with construction and completions remaining poor §§ New Home Sales are increasing
in 2013 compared to a decade ago §§ Construction has fallen since 2010 given credit crunch – rental growth and yield has been high as a result
§§ Over 50% of investors
§§ RP Data is reporting 250
expect house prices to rise in 2014 as compared to 8% who expect a fall
§§ With confidence emerging, it is anticipated that demand for housing credit will emerge, especially given substantial buffer to mortgage repayments after recent savings
suburbs around Australia tipped to double property values in 10 years §§ HIA reports hotspots are emerging
§§ Demand for housing credit is still increasing, albeit it at below trend §§ Investor credit demand is leading owner-occupier demand
FUTURE ESTATE RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET UPDATE – JUNE 2014
9
Residential Market Update
Future Estate capital city rating
PERTH State Auction Clearance Rate State Days on Market (days) State Discount Rate Asking Price Index Change City Vacancy Rate State Property Market Score*
BRISBANE
DARWIN State Auction Clearance Rate State Days on Market (days) State Discount Rate Asking Price Index Change City Vacancy Rate State Property Market Score*
36.3% 92 5.9% -0.6% 1.9% 2.89
85% 132 5.2% 0.8% 1.5% 3.23
Future Estate Capital City Rating
Future Estate Capital City Rating
3.11
2.78
State Auction Clearance Rate State Days on Market (days) State Discount Rate Asking Price Index Change City Vacancy Rate State Property Market Score*
37% 144 7.9% 1.1% 2.4% 2.89
Future Estate Capital City Rating
3.00
SYDNEY
DARWIN
State Auction Clearance Rate State Days on Market (days) State Discount Rate Asking Price Index Change City Vacancy Rate State Property Market Score*
NT
70% 100 6.2% 0.6% 1.7% 3.64
Future Estate Capital City Rating
QLD
3.65
WA
BRISBANE
SA
CANBERRA
NSW SYDNEY
PERTH
ACT ADELAIDE
CANBERRA
VIC
MELBOURNE
State Auction Clearance Rate State Days on Market (days) State Discount Rate Asking Price Index Change City Vacancy Rate State Property Market Score*
45% 90 5.0% -2.9% 2.1% 3.00
Future Estate Capital City Rating
2.70
TAS HOBART
ADELAIDE State Auction Clearance Rate State Days on Market (days) State Discount Rate Asking Price Index Change City Vacancy Rate State Property Market Score*
MELBOURNE 51.1% 154 7.4% 0.8% 1.5% 3.08
Future Estate Capital City Rating
3.15
State Auction Clearance Rate State Days on Market (days) State Discount Rate Asking Price Index Change City Vacancy Rate State Property Market Score*
HOBART 67% 110 7.1% 0.7% 2.9% 3.53
Future Estate Capital City Rating
3.56
* The State Property Market Score, which is out of 5, takes into account several factors, including demographic factors that indicate Future Growth, Quarterly House and Unit Median Price Growth Rates, Annual Dwelling Growth Rates and the Median Mortgage Payments as a proportion of the Median Household Income.
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FUTURE ESTATE RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET UPDATE – JUNE 2014
State Auction Clearance Rate State Days on Market (days) State Discount Rate Asking Price Index Change City Vacancy Rate State Property Market Score*
30% 195 10.2% 0.1% 1.6% 2.70
Future Estate Capital City Rating
2.51 Sources: Australian Property Monitors, Domain.com.au and SQM Research.
Future Estate’s Research Team has developed an extensive quantitative modelling process to critically assess the Australian Residential Property Market. For the Capital City Rating, our team records, benchmarks, assigns weights to and scores various key property market lead indicators and descriptive statistics. Our Services Include: §§ Buyers’ agency §§ Research – suburb reports and due-diligence markets §§ Personalised advice and investment strategy §§ Panel of “Endorsed Projects”- over $1bn portfolio of “investment grade” projects nationally §§ Contact us to arrange a complimentary consultation to discuss your needs
Please contact our team at Future Estate for more information on our methodology and/or our range of other property investment advisory services.
(03) 9988 2900 info@futureestate.com.au www.futureestate.com.au @futureestate future.estate future estate
Copyright © Future Estate Group Pty Ltd 2014
This document contains general information and does not contain personal advice or financial product advice. This information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Accordingly, before acting on this information and making financial decisions, you should consider whether this information is appropriate for you and are recommended to seek independent financial, investment, tax and/or legal advice having regard to your own objectives, financial situation and needs. This information may contain material provided to Future Estate Group Pty Ltd by third parties. While such material is published with necessary permission, Future Estate Group Pty Ltd and its related entities accept no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of this information, nor endorses it. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Future Estate Group Pty and its related entities disclaim all liability for any loss, costs or damage which arises in connection with the use or reliance on the information and material contained in this document. Any forward looking statements and estimates are provided as a general guide only and should not be relied upon as an indication or guarantee of future performance. Furthermore, past performance is not a true indicator of future performance. Any past performance information this document has been given for illustrative purposesUPDATE only and should not be relied upon as an indication of future performance. FUTUREin ESTATE RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET – JUNE 2014
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