ARM in London - Future Perspectives

Research Seminar

The Affordable Rent Model in London: Future perspectives 30 April 2013

Research Seminar

The Affordable Rent Model in London: Future Perspectives

Lisa Taylor

Interim Director, Future of London

Our research project • Supported by the Oak Foundation • Research project from January to June 2013

Our research project Project focus: • Who is building ARM in London and why

• How much ARM is being built and where • The extent to which ARM is viable in the short term

and after 2015/16 • Whether ARM is consistent with housing strategy and housing need in London • What part ARM should play after 2015/16

Our research project What we are doing: • Review of existing literature: completed • Interviews with HAs, LAs, and other stakeholders:

completed • Analysis of the data on ARM in London: in progress

• Case studies highlighting aspects or effects of ARM development: in progress

• A final report: June release

Agenda 1.30

Arrivals and refreshments

1.45

Welcome & background – Lisa Taylor

1.55

Emerging findings – Andrew Heywood

2.15

Questions

2.30

Discussion points

3.15

Chair’s summing up

3.30

Close

Research Seminar

The Affordable Rent Model in London: Future Perspectives

Andrew Heywood Lead Researcher

Who is building ARM in London?

Emerging Questions • The Affordable Rent Model in London: Affordability, Deliverability • 9 April 201

– Currently 58 organisations contracted to the AHP programme in London (GLA) – This is roughly the 60 expected by the HCA/GLA. In the RLHS – They are contracted for 22,268 homes including affordable rent and affordable home ownership – Overall average affordable rent as percentage of market rent is 64.7% (69.6% for conversions) but average varies between providers from 36%-81% (GLA)

ARM: numbers built/converted What has been built/converted to December 2012?

2011-12 1st lets/new build

2011-12 Conversions

2012-13 1st lets/new build

2012-13 Conversions

TOTAL ARM to DEC 12

GLA estimate

131

535

55

2370

3091

CORE

252

363

291

2198

3104

Sources: GLA, CORE 2011-12 and 2012-13

Westminster Wandsworth Waltham Forest Tower Hamlets Sutton Southwark Richmond Redbridge Newham Merton Lewisham Lambeth Kingston Kensington & chelsea Islington Hounslow Hillingdon Havering Harrow Haringey Hammersmith/Fulham Hackney Greenwich Enfield Ealing Croydon Camden Bromley Brent Bexley Barnet Barking & Dagenham City of london

Housing association

Local Authority

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

ARM: Total new build & re-lets

ARM: Total new build

ARM: Total re-lets

ARM: income & age Who is being housed in ARM homes?

Average income (ÂŁ per week) 350 300 250 200 150

100

289 240

205

209

London conversions

London all ARM

240

250

England conversions

England all ARM

50 0 London 1st lets

Region ARM London ARM England HA SR London HA SR England

Source: CORE 2012-13

England 1st lets

Average Age (Head of household) 34.5 34.5 38.8 37.4

ARM: gender

Region ARM London ARM England HA SR London HA SR England

Male 925 5852 3573 36467

Source: CORE 2012-13

37.5% 35.4% 35.8% 41.9%

Female 1541 10,688 6402 50550

62.5% 64.6% 64.2% 58.1%

Total 2466 16540 9974 87016

ARM: economic status

Region ARM London ARM England HA SR London HA SR England Source: CORE 2012-13

Working FT 479 19.1% 3618 21.5% 2100 20.5% 18079 20.8%

Working PT 318 12.78% 2196 13.1% 1336 13.1% 9219 10.6%

Total 2489 16823 10228 87050

ARM: housing benefit Overall eligibility for housing benefit: London ARM and HA SR tenants 100.00% 90.00% 80.00% 70.00%

60.00% 50.00% 40.00%

87.07%

82.69%

30.00% 20.00% 10.00%

12.93%

17.31%

0.00% Eligible

Ineligible

London ARM

London HA SR

ARM: housing benefit Eligibility for housing benefit: full and part time workers London ARM and SR tenants 120.00%

100.00%

7.23%

12.12%

80.00%

68.58%

77.87%

60.00% 92.77%

87.88%

40.00%

20.00%

31.42%

22.13%

0.00% Working FT

Working PT

Working FT

Working PT

London ARM

London ARM

London HA SR

London HA SR

Eligible

Ineligible

ARM: rents Borough City of London Barking &Dagenham Barnet Bexley Brent Bromley Camden Croydon Ealing Enfield Greenwich Hackney H'smith &Fulham Haringey Harrow Havering Hillingdon Hounslow Islington Kens'ton & Chelsea Kingston Lambeth Lewisham Merton Newham Redbridge Richmond Southwark Sutton Tower Hamlets Waltham Forest Wandsworth Westminster London Inner London Outer London

ARM rent HA SR rent 204 121 253 125 206 145 207 141 181 145 144 178 207 150 319 135 198 231 185 214 205 150 134 126 147 143 185 170 127 168 141 169 198 164 174 157

134 110 142 118 114 119 130 135 117 123 128 114 166 118 128 108 118 123 124 173 132 112 113 119 108 107 124 120 110 120 114 132 134 122 123 119

Uplift ÂŁ Uplift % 70 53% 11 10% 111 78% 7 6% 92 81% 26 22% 77 59% 7 5% 64 54% 22 18% 16 13% 65 57% 41 25% 32 27% 191 149% 27 25% 81 69% 108 88% 61 49% 40 23% 73 55% 38 33% 21 18% 7 6% 39 36% 36 34% 60 48% 49 41% 16 15% 49 41% 26 23% 37 28% 65 48% 43 35% 51 41% 38 32%

ARM: rents ARM conversions London: % uplift over social rent by number of bedrooms 60%

50%

40%

30% 49% 20%

37%

35%

35%

31%

10%

8% 0% 1 Bed

2 Bed

3 Bed

4 Bed

6 Bed

All properties

ARM: size Percentage of different bedroom numbers let in London: ARM 1st lets and conversions plus social rent 60.0%

50.0%

40.0%

30.0% 53.2%

52.6%

20.0%

39.6%

35.3% 34.7% 26.5%

10.0%

0.0%

22.0%

20.3% 6.4%

0.7% 0.0% 0.00%

1st Lets

6.7%

0.7% 0.0% 0.1%

Conversions 1 Bed

2 Bed

3 Bed

4 Bed

1.3% 0.0%

HA social rent 5 Bed

6 Bed

ARM: tenancies Tenancy type; London ARM and HA SR lettings 2012-13 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0%

London ARM

40.0%

London HA SR

79.1%

30.0% 50.1% 20.0%

38.3%

10.0% 0.2%

11.4%

0.9%

5.8%

14.1%

0.0% Secure

Assured

Other

Assured shorthold

• Note: 72% of ARM tenancies are commenced as starter tenancies • Where a tenancy term is specified it is almost always 5 years.

Source: CORE: 2012-13

ARM: popularity Region ARM London ARM England HA SR London HA SR England

Number of days vacant 25.7 22.9 25.0 26.8

Region

Number previous offers

ARM London ARM England HA SR London HA SR England

Source: CORE 2012-13

1.42 0.74 0.93 0.75

ARM: emerging questions • Who is being housed in ARM properties; is this sensible in terms of housing need?

• Housing benefit implications of ARM - how might this shape the HM Treasury view?

• Will RPs achieve the rate of conversions they require and at sufficient uplift?

• To what extent are lower than anticipated conversions being subsidised by RCGF or other sources?

• Is the programme back-loaded or off-track?

• Overall, will ARM meet GLA targets (16,614 ARM homes 2011-15 plus size and space requirements

ARM: emerging questions • Are HAs achieving the levels of rents they require for viability?

How might this effect development numbers?

• Larger homes - the Mayor’s target for family-sized homes (36%)

• Where homes are being built - Should ARM homes be built where need is greatest or where viability dictates?

ARM: emerging questions Risk and sustainability: • ARM poses a range of risks for HAs – Housing market risk/rental risk – Gearing/funding – Future financial capacity – Affordability/housing benefit • Given higher risks will HAs continue to undertake ARM rather than LCHO or market renting post 2015?

Research Seminar

The Affordable Rent Model in London: Future Perspectives

Questions

ARM and post 2015 affordable housing strategy • What place should ARM have in a strategy post 2015?

• Who should ARM be used to house?

• What are the alternative tenures: – More social renting?

– LCHO/shared ownership?

– Market renting?

– Other?

• Could an alternative generate sufficient numbers of

affordable homes where and for whom they’re needed?

Andrew Heywood Housing, Mortgage markets, Regulation, Governance, Europe • • • • •

Housing: finance, policy, low-cost homeownership.

Mortgage markets: trends, opportunities, threats.

Regulation: policy, practice, lenders, housing providers.

Governance: effective decision making, strategy, audit.

Europe: housing and mortgage markets, regulation.

Andrew Heywood is an independent consultant specialising in the above areas and an associate of leading consultants Campbell Tickell. A visiting fellow of the Land Economy Unit of Cambridge University and of the Smith Institute, Andrew has written and spoken extensively on housing and lending issues. He is Editor of the journal Housing Finance International (www.housingfinance.org). Andrew was formerly Deputy Head of Policy at the Council of Mortgage Lenders. He has been at the centre of housing, housing finance and mortgage market developments for many years and has unrivalled contacts amongst policy makers, housing providers and lenders.

Andrew Heywood Consulting: a.heywood53@btinternet.com 01440 730218/07929512057