Delivering Estate Renewal: Funding breakout

Conference: 6 November 2014 #estaterenewal

B:

Funding

Chair Panel:

Lucy Owen, Head of Area (South), GLA Yinka Bolaji, Director, Portfolio Management, Genesis Jonathan Clarke, Partner, Centrus Advisors Andrew Sivess, Group Manager, Innovation & Funding, LB Barking & Dagenham

FUNDING ESTATE RENEWAL Andrew Sivess LB Barking & Dagenham

Interest rates – window of opportunity 7.0 UK: short-­‐term Euro area: short-­‐term

6.0

UK: long-­‐term 5.0 Euro area: long-­‐term 4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Informa)on taken from OECD Economic Outlook and Methods

CURRENT MARKET Current lending into UK Real Estate (£bns)

Bond spreads

25.0

1.80 1.60

20.0

Spread on three-­‐year retail bonds(c)

1.40 15.0

1.20 1.00

10.0

Spread on five-­‐year retail bonds(c)

0.80 5.0

Jun-­‐14

Jan-­‐14

Aug-­‐13

Mar-­‐13

Oct-­‐12

May-­‐12

Dec-­‐11

Jul-­‐11

Feb-­‐11

Sep-­‐10

Apr-­‐10

Nov-­‐09

Jun-­‐09

Jan-­‐09

Aug-­‐08

-­‐5.0

0.40 Mar-­‐08

0.0

0.60 Source: Bank of England

0.20 0.00

-­‐10.0 -­‐15.0 Source: Bank of England

Source: Bank of England

COMPETITION FOR INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES • Reduced bank lending and risk aversion has led to increased compe))on for investment projects

• Not enough investment grade opportuni)es with asset liability matching requirements

• Investment is a compara)ve NOT absolute assessment • To be an a[rac)ve investment you must understand the needs of your target investor community and adapt the investment proposi)on accordingly • Equally you must understand what you want from your investors

INVESTMENT-­‐LED MODEL

FUNDING & INVESTOR REQUIREMENTS FUNDING SOURCES

HIGH QUALITY PROJECT

PENSION FUND

SOVERIGN WEALTH

INSTITUTIONAL

Robustness Accountability Certainty

EIB (GAP FUNDING)

Alignment

HIGH NETWORTHS

Efficiency

Partnership Structure

Risk Adjusted Return

Blended rate

EUROPEAN INVESTMENT BANK KEY REQUIREMENTS

ELEGIBLE INVESTMENTS

FUNDING LEVEL

50% MAX. OF ELEGIBLE FUNDING COSTS

INVESTMENT GRADE

TRIPLE AAA/ BORROWER COVENANT

SOCIAL & ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURE

TERM

25 YEAR TERM TYPICAL

IDEAL INVESTMENTS CHARACTERISTICS

ROBUSTNESS

PROMOTER

• Long dura)on

• Self financing project

• Certainty

• Liability matching

• Investment grade guarantee

• Direct access to funders

• Infla)on linked

• Asset backed

• Avoiding excessive leverage

• Retain equity upside

• Low vola)lity

• Yielding • Low market correla)on

• Prudent life-­‐cycle and estate management

• Realis)c risk alloca)on

PROMOTOR ROLE (THE COUNCIL) Other organisation (if required)

LBBD Private funder

Loan

Issues • Investment objec)ves

• Funding route(s)

Grant Lease

SPV Development Agreement

Loan

Development Partner

PMA

Property Manager

ASTs with Tenants

• Taxa)on

• Governance • Risk alloca)on

Tenants

STAKEHOLDER OBJECTIVES -­‐ SUMMARY

Local Authority objectives / solutions!

Funding Partner objectives / solutions!

Retain full ownership of land and assets"

Structured as Amortising Finance Strip, no reversionary interest"

Retain all management and nomination"

No day to day controls wanted / required"

Ability to sell assets"

Substitution rights"

Fund structure from varying rents from 50% OMR to 80%"

Project scope and costs managed to ensure affordability in light of rent aspirations"

Flexibility to offset finance risk by altering rents on a discretionary basis"

Private Affordable Rent solution meaning limited security of tenure and ability to increase rents to 100% market"

Retention of all profits rents by providing LA guarantee ʻwrapʼ "

Fixed finance cost, no participation in outperformance"

Nil cash funding requirement"

Funding 100% of all project costs from Financial Close, against certificates "

Funding assurances"

Parent company funding guarantee"

END PRODUCT • " • " • " • " • • " • " • " • " •

A total of 477 affordable housing units on two sites" 311 terraced family houses with gardens" 166 apartments spread over low density blocks and a 10 story tower" Driven by LBBDʼs specific requirements" Scheme caters for families and young workers" Efficient construction & delivery maximised affordability" Built to Code Level 4 and designed to last over 125 years" Systems emit fewer emissions, less waste and reduce water consumption" Mayoral size standard " Sense of community, environment and place "

Portfolio Management approach to regeneration

Yinka Bolaji Portfolio Management Director Genesis HA

Genesis Property PorYolio • Porcolio comprises of 33,000 proper)es.

27,000 owned & remainder managed on behalf of other landlords • Work in 88 local authori)es.

• 50% of Genesis ac)vity is located within 5 local authori)es.

• 14 addi)onal local authori)es cover 30% of porcolio.

Genesis Property PorYolio and tenures As at 31st March 2014

Porcolio comprises of 33,000 proper)es. 27,000 owned & remainder managed on behalf of other landlords

Genesis property porYolio and neighbourhoods

Genesis Proper[es

Significant propor)on of porcolio are in deprived neighbourhoods. We con)nue to support the regenera)on of communi)es in key markets

1

2

3

4

5

6

IMD Decile (where 1 is most deprived)

7

8

9

10

Drivers of value – travel [me and quality of place 120 Average Flat Value

Regenera)on Gentrifica)on

100

80

Travel Time

Plotting over 4,000 locations in London, we can see there is a clear relationship between value, travel time and quality of place.

Based on the relationships between value, travel time and quality of place we have identified, we can ask: How can we create more value?

• Through regeneration and gentrification • Through decreasing travel time via transport improvements

Transport Improvements

60

40

PCL

20

0 0

10

20

Less Deprived

Source: TFL, ONS, HM Land Registry, Savills

30

40 IMD Score

50

60

70

More Deprived

For reference, the average one way commute in London is 38mins. We have just looked at apartment values to correct for differences in property type and size.

Beber places & beber opportuni[es for residents • Mixed tenures and mixed income residents create stronger communi)es and help improve and regenerate areas of depriva)on.

• Mixed tenures and mixed income communi)es a[ract other investment, par)cularly from retail and other businesses, which help in the crea)on of thriving neighbourhoods • Strong social and economic wellbeing programmes help residents take advantage of opportuni)es created by the improvement and regenera)on of those areas • In the long term, strong communi)es result in improved asset values enabling Genesis to further its objec)ves

Crea[ng Value – Major regenera[on projects

Mildmay Hospital, Shoreditch Stoke Quay, Ipswich

Grahame Park, Barnet

Woodberry Down, Hackney

Zenith House, Barnet

City West Park, Chelmsford

Funding implica[ons – illustra[ve developments

Cummula[ve development cashflow

10 0 -­‐10 -­‐20 -­‐30 -­‐40 -­‐50 -­‐60

Years Private developer

Housing Associa)on

Regenera)on

Leveraging assets – Genesis recent ac[vi[es Recycling latent value within the exis)ng porcolio, 1 & 2 bedroom proper)es are appraised as they become vacant and subsequently recommended for disposals.

Void disposal ac[vity

11/12

12/13

13/14

TOTALS

129

112

104

345

Sales value achieved (millions)

£28.8

£31.3

£30.8

£90.9

Development spend (millions)

£110.3

£119.1

£146.7

£376.1

New dwellings completed

1,018

1,041

751

2,810

Affordable comple)ons %age

86%

64%

39%

66%

Void disposals sold

80% of disposals in Westminster and Brent, hence ongoing dialogues with local authority on impact of disposals.

HCA general consent obtained in January 2013 and due to expire in March 2015.

Leveraging assets – poten[al approach Key: OMV (£)

Core Boroughs (LIF) Exit Boroughs (E)

Leverage assets

£1m

£750,000 £500,000 £400,000 Core Estate

REGENERATION Retain (Regen/Refurb)

REFURBISMENT

Retain (No ac[on) NPV (£)

£10,000

Linking asset leverage to our neighbourhoods – Westminster example

Estate Renewal Funding op[ons Jonathan Clarke Partner, Centrus Advisors LLP 6th November 2014

Centrus Advisors LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority

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TREASURY & DERIVATIVES

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D E B T A D V CONFIDENTIAL I S O R Y ⎢ P R O J E C T F I N A N C E

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CORPORATE FINANCE

Contents

• • • • •

Cash flows and risk Who provides equity?

Scope for improvement Key points for a sponsor LA / RP Q&A

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Slide 24 CONFIDENTIAL

Cash flows and risk Indica)ve "regenera)on" cash flows (cumula)ve) 100

50

-­‐

£m

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

-­‐50

-­‐100

-­‐150

-­‐200

Land / CPO

Infrastructure

Construc)on

Sales (private)

Sales (affordable)

Regenera)on total

Planning milestone

Funding challenges: (i) uncertainty what will happen, (ii) uncertainty when it will happen, (iii) uncertainty how much it will cost / realise in sales

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Slide 25 CONFIDENTIAL

Cash flows and risk Investment types

Riskiness

Funding op[ons

Estate renewal component parts Land & CPO

Mostly equity or “equity”

Infrastructure

Mostly equity or “equity”

Construc)on

Debt more available Non-­‐estate renewal comparisons

Small-­‐scale property development

Mix of debt and equity

Commercial property

Mix of debt and equity

Commercial property w/ covenant

More debt / cheaper equity

Housing associa)on rental ac)vi)es

Highly geared with debt

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Slide 26 CONFIDENTIAL

Who provides equity?

Once enough visibility to seek debt funding the problem is largely solved.

Providers of equity:

– Investor with long )me horizons and interest in funding residen)al development and without simpler / be[er op)ons Ø Not many of these, but they exist for the right schemes – Housing associa)on Ø Charitable objecCves, so able to balance prioriCes Ø Development risk needs managing within wider corporate context – the “one big bucket” approach has its limitaCons – Local authority Ø Right objecCves Ø QuesCon about experCse and independence ‒ Homes and Communi)es Agency Ø Right objecCves Ø Ability to invest flexibly and on sub-­‐market basis

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Slide 27 CONFIDENTIAL

Scope for improvement Party

Could do more if …

… but …

Investors

More of them, more Pension funds conserva)ve and focussed on of a range commercial property.

Struggling with PRS (yield, delivery) although interested in RP lending and leasing.

Housing associa)ons

More ambi)ous?

Need to be mindful of financial strength and many uncertain)es ahead.

The established model, in terms of level of gearing, under heavy pressure. May need new vehicles to work at higher risk levels.

Local authori)es

HRA cap raised?

If want to act as investor, can already do so outside the HRA if desire is there. Constraint is more about role and skills.

HCA

More money?

The “investment” rather than “grant-­‐giving” perspec)ve is a posi)ve development, even if started partly out of necessity. But some)mes s)ll will have to be very “sot” funding.

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Slide 28 CONFIDENTIAL

Key points for a sponsor local authority / registered provider Commercial • Go to the market with a big offering if that is needed to see value • Recognise financial limita)ons of exis)ng structures, whether HRA or RP balance sheet and risk appe)te • Control risks for funders as far as you can • Offer upside but put in place robust framework for sharing it • Don’t give away strategic control if not the right partner for that, either in terms of mo)va)ons or delivery capability

Governance • Consult … make a plan … then have courage in your convic)ons • Keep board / key stakeholders on-­‐side • Invest in effec)ve project team and support • Recognise the nature of the rela)onship with delivery partners and never lose sight of it

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Slide 29 CONFIDENTIAL

Q&A

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30 CONFIDENTIAL

Conference: 6 November 2014 #estaterenewal

Questions? Â