Richard de Cani Director of Transport Strategy & Planning Transport for London
London’s context – key trends over last decade • • • • • • •
Growing demand for travel. 8% more pop, 5% more jobs, 13% more journey-stages. At the same time a shift from private to pubic transport. 7% net shift in mode share. Increasing congestion on the road and PT networks. Public transport service provision and reliability at or close to ‘best ever’ levels. Many other achievements including fleet and infrastructure renewal, improvements to road safety and crime on the transport networks. Policies such as Congestion Charging, Low Emission Zone, Barclays Cycle Hire etc. now ‘mainstream’. Looking to the future some major innovations (both infrastructure and policy) that can be expected to change the face of travel further.
Growth in Travel Demand
London vs rest of GB Inner London
Outer London
Metropolitan Areas
Large Urban Areas (over 250,000 people)
1.2
1.0
0.8
y a d n o e s rip T
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0 Walk
Car driver
Car passenger
Other private
Local bus
Other public
Index of people entering central London in the AM peak by mode
Falling road traffic volumes
Increased PT supply & demand - Bus
Increased PT supply & demand - Underground
The evolution of the DLR network
700
Passenger kilometres
Woolwich Arsenal extension opens
Journey stages
600
City Airport extension opens
500 400
Lewisham extension opens
t() m ilo rk g n e s a P
300 200 100 0
Beckton extension opens
80 )
800
90
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
il t(m y u rjo g n e s a P
900
Profile of Trips in London
Looking to 2031: predicted growth
By 2031, London’s population is forecast to grow by 1.3 million Employment is forecast to increase by 750,000 jobs Increased trips (from 2008 base): 30% PT 15% total 3m extra trips per day by 2031 (27m from 24m today)
London is growing...every five years, one million more trips / day
12
London is growing...every five years, one million more trips / day
13
London’s transport geography extends well beyond the GLA boundary
Continued Mode shift is the best way to achieve sustainable growth Mode share 24 m trips per day
The Mayor seeks an increase in the mode share of walking, cycling and public transport
27 m trips per day
15
London’s key places for growth Central Activities Zone (CAZ) and Town Centres
Employment density
London’s key places for growth Opportunity Areas
Key places: Opportunity Areas for major development Lea Valley Brent Cross / Cricklewood
Thames Gateway
Western Arc Heathrow Croydon
19
London’s key places for growth Strategic Industrial Locations
Current Transport Investment Supports this Growth •National rail upgrades on radial routes to provide capacity into central London •Tube upgrade to increase capacity across the whole network •DLR/Jubilee and Overground enhancements to support growth in east London
Station Enhancements
22
22
Tube Upgrades
23
23
National Rail enhancements
24
24
Crossrail will serve Opportunity Areas across London
25
Including enabling Docklands to reach their economic potential
26
The new London Overground network serves many of London’s Opportunity Areas...
About 20% of London’s population is within 1 km of the Overground network 27
Taking all TfL and national rail committed schemes in to account, access to employment will be significantly improved across London
Before committed investment programme 28
Taking all committed schemes in to account, access to employment will be significantly improved across London
After committed investment programme 29
London’s growth means 1m more trips a day by 2016 P opula tion & e mployme nt a re growing
Eve ry five ye a rs , a n e xtra one million trips in London a re a dde d 2007
Equivalent to adding city the size of Birmingham to London over 20 years
24.5m
2016
25.9m
2021
26.8m
2031
28.6m
...with s trong pre s s ure s on public tra ns port, cycling a nd wa lking...
...a s we ll a s up to 30% more roa d fre ight a nd s e rvicing trips ...s o incre a s ing pre s s ure s on roa ds pa ce & conflicts be twe e n us e rs /us e s m o s t ac ute ly fre ig ht and c yc ling 30
Other rail investment is also needed in the medium term...
31
...and in the longer term with more DLR and tram improvements as well
32
In the longer term, Crossrail 2 is vital to supporting London’s development Objectives • Support growth and regeneration • Alleviate crowding, especially on Victoria, Piccadilly and Northern lines • Improve passenger dispersal from National Rail termini including HS2 • Improve connectivity
33
But across London, road congestion is hampering development and will get worse as London grows
Delaying journeys
Making deliveries difficult
34
Journey times could increase by over 30% on some corridors
London’s growth is of such a scale that some additional road space is required to accommodate growth in movements This is needed to accommodate an increase in demand for road space from cars, servicing & deliveries traffic, buses and cyclists
35
While local roads within Opportunity Areas could be focussed on buses, cycling and walking, and essential deliveries
36
Further interventions needed to meet CO2 reduction target and Air Quality limits
Summary •
London has successfully captured modal shift away from private transport to public transport & walking/cycling
•
To continue this trend in a growth context requires sustained investment in the transport network - particularly rail/bus capacity
•
Growth is spread across London but concentrated in particular locations – this will require targeted responses and investments
•
Increased demand for use of road space (not just by cars – but servicing/cycles) will mean more road space is required in some locations to support growth
•
This has to be delivered in the context of meeting the CO2 reduction targets and air quality limits
•
Future funding context challenging –new methods of funding and delivering infrastructure have to be considered