Future of London RDC April 2012

Richard de Cani Director of Transport Strategy & Planning Transport for London

London’s context – key trends over last decade • • • • • • •

Growing demand for travel. 8% more pop, 5% more jobs, 13% more journey-stages.

At the same time a shift from private to pubic transport. 7% net shift in mode share.

Increasing congestion on the road and PT networks.

Public transport service provision and reliability at or close to ‘best ever’ levels.

Many other achievements including fleet and infrastructure renewal, improvements to road safety and crime on the transport networks.

Policies such as Congestion Charging, Low Emission Zone, Barclays Cycle Hire etc. now ‘mainstream’.

Looking to the future some major innovations (both infrastructure and policy) that can be expected to change the face of travel further.

Growth in Travel Demand

London vs rest of GB Inner London

Outer London

Metropolitan Areas

Large Urban Areas (over 250,000 people)

1.2

1.0

0.8

y a d n o e s rip T

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0 Walk

Car driver

Car passenger

Other private

Local bus

Other public

Index of people entering central London in the AM peak by mode

Falling road traffic volumes

Increased PT supply & demand - Bus

Increased PT supply & demand - Underground

The evolution of the DLR network

700

Passenger kilometres

Woolwich Arsenal extension opens

Journey stages

600

City Airport extension opens

500 400

Lewisham extension opens

t() m ilo rk g n e s a P

300 200 100 0

Beckton extension opens

80 )

800

90

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

il t(m y u rjo g n e s a P

900

Profile of Trips in London

Looking to 2031: predicted growth

By 2031, London’s population is forecast to grow by 1.3 million Employment is forecast to increase by 750,000 jobs Increased trips (from 2008 base): 30% PT 15% total 3m extra trips per day by 2031 (27m from 24m today)

London is growing...every five years, one million more trips / day

12

London is growing...every five years, one million more trips / day

13

London’s transport geography extends well beyond the GLA boundary

Continued Mode shift is the best way to achieve sustainable growth Mode share 24 m trips per day

The Mayor seeks an increase in the mode share of walking, cycling and public transport

27 m trips per day

15

London’s key places for growth Central Activities Zone (CAZ) and Town Centres

Employment density

London’s key places for growth Opportunity Areas

Key places: Opportunity Areas for major development Lea Valley Brent Cross / Cricklewood

Thames Gateway

Western Arc Heathrow Croydon

19

London’s key places for growth Strategic Industrial Locations

Current Transport Investment Supports this Growth •National rail upgrades on radial routes to provide capacity into central London •Tube upgrade to increase capacity across the whole network •DLR/Jubilee and Overground enhancements to support growth in east London

Station Enhancements

22

22

Tube Upgrades

23

23

National Rail enhancements

24

24

Crossrail will serve Opportunity Areas across London

25

Including enabling Docklands to reach their economic potential

26

The new London Overground network serves many of London’s Opportunity Areas...

About 20% of London’s population is within 1 km of the Overground network 27

Taking all TfL and national rail committed schemes in to account, access to employment will be significantly improved across London

Before committed investment programme 28

Taking all committed schemes in to account, access to employment will be significantly improved across London

After committed investment programme 29

London’s growth means 1m more trips a day by 2016 P opula tion & e mployme nt a re growing

Eve ry five ye a rs , a n e xtra one million trips in London a re a dde d 2007

Equivalent to adding city the size of Birmingham to London over 20 years

24.5m

2016

25.9m

2021

26.8m

2031

28.6m

...with s trong pre s s ure s on public tra ns port, cycling a nd wa lking...

...a s we ll a s up to 30% more roa d fre ight a nd s e rvicing trips ...s o incre a s ing pre s s ure s on roa ds pa ce & conflicts be twe e n us e rs /us e s m o s t ac ute ly fre ig ht and c yc ling 30

Other rail investment is also needed in the medium term...

31

...and in the longer term with more DLR and tram improvements as well

32

In the longer term, Crossrail 2 is vital to supporting London’s development Objectives • Support growth and regeneration • Alleviate crowding, especially on Victoria, Piccadilly and Northern lines • Improve passenger dispersal from National Rail termini including HS2 • Improve connectivity

33

But across London, road congestion is hampering development and will get worse as London grows

Delaying journeys

Making deliveries difficult

34

Journey times could increase by over 30% on some corridors

London’s growth is of such a scale that some additional road space is required to accommodate growth in movements This is needed to accommodate an increase in demand for road space from cars, servicing & deliveries traffic, buses and cyclists

35

While local roads within Opportunity Areas could be focussed on buses, cycling and walking, and essential deliveries

36

Further interventions needed to meet CO2 reduction target and Air Quality limits

Summary •

London has successfully captured modal shift away from private transport to public transport & walking/cycling

•

To continue this trend in a growth context requires sustained investment in the transport network - particularly rail/bus capacity

•

Growth is spread across London but concentrated in particular locations – this will require targeted responses and investments

•

Increased demand for use of road space (not just by cars – but servicing/cycles) will mean more road space is required in some locations to support growth

•

This has to be delivered in the context of meeting the CO2 reduction targets and air quality limits

•

Future funding context challenging –new methods of funding and delivering infrastructure have to be considered