London 2062

UCL ENERGY INSTITUTE

Energy in London, 2062 A contribution to the London 2062 project of the UCL Grand Challenges

Paul Ekins Professor of Energy and Environment Policy UCL Energy Institute, University College London University College London

March 19th 2012

UCL UCL ENERGY ENERGY INSTITUTE INSTITUTE

London’s Energy Use Now •

Transport •

•

Home • • • •

•

Keeping warm/cool (space heating, air conditioning): gas, electricity Keeping clean (water heating, appliances): gas, electricity Seeing at night (lighting): electricity Having fun (ICT appliances of all sorts): electricity

Work • •

•

Getting about: petrol, diesel, aviation fuel, electricity

Keeping warm/cool (space heating, air conditioning): gas, electricity Working (ICT, little industry): electricity

Infrastructure • • • •

Logistics (road, rail): petrol, diesel, electricity Water/wastewater: electricity Waste (landfill, recycling, energy from waste): diesel, electricity Grids: central/local power networks, gas grid, CHP, district heating

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Policy pressures • Climate policy: ‘the low-carbon transition’, 80% GHG reduction by 2050, 50% by 2025 • Energy security: reliability of infrastructure, availability of fuels • Affordability: competitiveness of business, affordability for households • Climate change: implications for infrastructure (flood defences, housing, transport systems, water/wastewater management, ICT networks, airports)

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Implications for Energy Supply in London • Decarbonised electricity: electricity for transport (EVs), heating (heat pumps), perhaps H2 for fuel cell vehicles, CHP • Electricity network: central/local balancing • Gas grid: CH4, H2, biogas • Heat grid: Energy from waste/CHP/district heating • Transport fuels: biofuel component • Transport infrastructure: battery/H2 service stations

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Implications for Energy Demand/Practices •

• •

Zero-carbon buildings: • Improved thermal performance (the Great British Refurb) • Building generation of heat/electricity • Building electricity and heat management (smart meters, variable tariffs, vehicle plug-ins, peak-load management, responsive appliances) • Flexible, conserving behaviours (energy will be expensive) Access over mobility: more cycling, walking, zeroemission vehicles Changes more radical and dramatic than they sound: but once made, the new practices would soon come to seem ‘normal’

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Policy challenges • Price of energy: • •

Decarbonisation requires a high and rising carbon price Low-carbon energy is currently more expensive than high-carbon energy

• Energy efficiency in buildings: • • • •

Measuring performance Builders’ skills Building valuation Motivating/regulating householders

• Incentivising investment: • • •

Electricity Market Reform Green Deal loans Green Investment Bank

Thank You

www.ucl.ac.uk/energy