Want to see success stories at COP28? Do not focus on the negotiations

AUTHOR: James Ellsmoor CEO, Island Innovation

The German national COP28 in Dubai was a hard sell ever since it was announced during the last days of COP27 in Egypt the previous year. The time leading up to COP28 was fraught with stumbling blocks - namely around Loss & Damage, the continued approach to tipping points and a general mistrust of hosting a climate conference in the world’s largest petro-state. Expectations were low heading in and the media - both traditional and social - was apathetic. How could we be heading to Dubai for a climate summit amidst another record-breaking year for climate disasters?

The short answer is that we cannot abandon the COP process, climate-affected communities need to be heard, represented, and have a place to negotiate their futures. For all the issues that COP may have, it still has an important purpose. International policy is slow and inherently benefits established member states with a vested economic interest. This is not new, but the COP process has slowly eroded this - on the sidelines of the summit you are seeing an increasing number of representatives from all levels of governance, civil society, and industry from developing nations. Young people, entrepreneurs, seasoned diplomats, activists all side by side - COPs have become more inclusive and accessible, Dubai has been no exception.

Yes, COP28 saw the largest amount of fossil fuel lobbyists of any summit held so far, but it also had spaces like the Youth, CARICOM, and Ocean Pavilions which were important places for discussion, networking, and knowledge sharing.

Stages like the Island of Hope hosted voices from a variety of communities, all of which were keen to work collaboratively towards new goals and finding innovative solutions that could benefit their home nations. These conversations are having a real impact and are not tied to the negotiations happening in the Blue Zone. International diplomacy may be slow, but civil society at a regional level is moving as fast as it can.

A Chorus of Voices

Over the past few years, the voices of communities on the frontlines of climate change have become louder, routinely challenging the status quo that has often steered international negotiations. In the Caribbean, Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley has led ongoing call for improved climate finance pathways for vulnerable nations, while Grenada’s Simon Stiell’s leadership as the UNFCCC Executive Secretary on back-to-back COPs has seen advancements on Loss and Damage and a vocal support for a phaseout of fossil fuels. The Pacific has also seen its voice amplified in recent COPs. Tuvalu’s Simon Kofe gaining media attention over his address at COP26 held in knee-deep water and his country’s recent plans for digital nationhood, or most recently in Dubai by Samoan head delegate Anne Rasmussen’s interjection following the announcement of a final decision reached without the involvement of members of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS).

This, in conjunction with an everlouder group of young people taking to the conference as observers, negotiators, and members of civil society, is making it harder for the status quo to ignore key climate justice and finance issues. While the text that emerged from Dubai has its set of loopholes and skeptical pledges, it pays to remember that the fruit of negotiations often represent the lowest common denominator rather than a true consensus. If there is a silver lining to take from the somewhat tumultuous ending of COP28 in Dubai, it’s that a shift in the baseline, no matter how small, is still a representation of larger change in the negotiation rooms - but that shift does not define the work already being done on the ground.

Capitalizing on Progress

Regardless of the wording of the final decision, real progress happens on the sidelines of COP, it is taking place in climate-vulnerable communities around the world, and it is being led by local stakeholders. Incremental progress is still progress, and it has been compounding ever since COP21 in Paris. Not every summit can yield historic developments like it did in 2015, but it is important that we remember that the legal jargon of COP decisions affects international policy, and we can take action without it - islands have been doing it for a while, as have most other developing economies around the world.

That does not mean we should be complacent about the increase in fossil fuel lobbyists, the slow pace of negotiations, or the political posturing of government leaders constrained by their term limits, but rather, we start to value the developments happening on the fringes of the summit itself. COP’s yearly negotiations are not the end-all when it comes to climate action, we must learn to capitalize on the progress being made elsewhere. We could look to modernize the process by making the summit a year-long process that would not have the entire focus squarely on one yearly individual event. So let us all continue to call for more ambition and action at an international level, but let’s also celebrate and highlight the developments happening in spite of it. ■

Regardless of the wording of the final decision, real progress happens on the sidelines of COP, it is taking place in climate-vulnerable communities around the world, and it is being led by local stakeholders. Incremental progress is still progress, and it has been compounding ever since COP21 in Paris.