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PLANNED EVENTS
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PHOTO CREDIT: JULIO CORTEZ / AP
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Figure 17. Hostility Expressed Toward Law Enforcement (Pro-Trump Website)
Additional Factors
Security risks will further be significantly impacted by a number of factors, which could escalate or mitigate the threat. These include:
Security Response and Posture How Key Political Events Transpire, e.g. the Senate impeachment trial Political Responses to Jan. 6 Organizations’ Responses to Jan. 6 Statements By Key Political Figures Weather Conditions Acts or Attempted Acts of Violence, including against a political figure, or civilians
One aspect to consider in regard to the impact the security response could have is that the timeline for a planned act of violence could be accelerated if a potential attacker feels they are at risk of being caught or being investigated.
PLANNED EVENTS
Aside from the protests outlined below, G4S has identified countless more being planned throughout the coming weeks, and particularly now through Jan. 20 across the U.S. These include protests in support of and many protesting against President Trump. Protest titles identified include ‘America First,’ ‘Accountability March,’ ‘Convict Trump,’ ‘Arrest Insurrectionists,’ ‘Stand By Trump,’ ‘Trump Out Now,’ ‘Rally For the People’s Demands’ and ‘Yellow Vest Protest.’ Additionally, a continuation of frequent protest topics is expected to continue (i.e. Black Lives Matter and protesting police violence). Moreover, G4S notes that marches are being organized to celebrate Jan. 18, Martin Luther King Jr. Day, which this year could face an elevated risk of counter-protests or white supremacist violence (although calls for this have not been specifically identified.)
Any protests that relate to politics or race face a heightened risk of being met by counter-protests and therefore of violent confrontations. The likelihood of protest violence based on location has been discussed in greater length in the first and particularly the second part of this series (published Sept. 28 and Oct. 29, 2020.)
The following should in no way serve as a comprehensive list of all planned protests, but rather represent protests that are being featured for their references to being armed, committing violence or are otherwise featured for their potential for political violence.
Jan. 17 – Jan. 20
It has been widely reported that from noon on Jan. 17 through Jan. 20 protests have been scheduled across all 50 state capitols and at the U.S. Capitol, as well as calls to “storm” government buildings across local, state, and federal levels (particularly if President Trump is removed from office.)
Figure 18. Call for Protest on Jan. 17 (8kun)
While several groups that G4S has reviewed are publically disavowing this event (even forming a widespread conspiracy theory that it is being organized by authorities or by media companies to trap them), this could be a case of intentional disinformation by groups, a lack of
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PHOTO CREDIT: REUTERS / JONATHAN ERNST
communication between groups and simple confusion due to the disruptions in communications. It also reflects that these groups are not unified. There are unconfirmed reports that this event is being organized by the Boogaloo Bois. Regardless of the organizer, there are a large number of individuals expressing frustrations about Jan. 6 not having gone further. The sentiment expressed in this call for protest align with what is being expressed across various social media forums, and particularly amongst those Trump supporters who have expressed a willingness to commit violence and see the final days of his term as a ‘last chance.’ Figure 19. Post on 4Chan Warning Against the Jan. 17 Protest Jan. 19 - Jan. 20 The majority of posts identified across far-right social media, which call for a larger protest, are focused on Jan. 20 (with some suggesting arriving and starting on Jan. 19.) While these events are also being disavowed by some groups, discussions about this event are more frequent. Of particular note is a protest referred to as the “Million Militia March” (nicknamed the “Million Martyr March” by individuals who recommend against supporters attending this event.) This is the event being referred to above in Figure 19. This event likewise encourages attendees to come armed, and encourages the execution of Nancy 13 U.S. Political Violence Risk Assessment Pelosi.
Figure 20. Description of Page Formerly Advertising the ‘Million Militia March’
Figure 21. Call to Protest, Armed, On Jan. 19.
Both the ‘Refuse to be Silenced’ march and ‘Million Militia March’ appear to be geared toward supporters of
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PHOTO CREDIT: WASHINGTONIAN
President Trump who continue to wish to fight for him or continue to protest their allegations of election fraud. Many posts were identified that expected Jan. 6 to be a “day of reckoning,” which fell short of their expectations, and now see Jan. 20 as their aforementioned ‘last chance.’ Figure 22. Reference to Jan. 20 as the ‘Day of Reckoning’ (QResearch) Meanwhile, groups that do not support President Trump appear to be alternating between telling their supporters to either stay home and quiet away from detection, or capitalize on these protests by attacking elsewhere (see above ‘Targeting,’ and below ‘Local Level,’ There are also isolated references by apparent supporters of President Trump referring to targeting other locations. Figure 23. Isolated Reference to Targeting Elsewhere Instead of D.C. (4Chan) In addition to far-right protests planned for Jan. 19 & 20, G4S has also identified nationwide protests against U.S. Immigration & Customs Enforcement (ICE). These protests appear to be focused on using inauguration day to send a political message to the incoming president. Figure 24. Planned Protest Against ICE (Telegram) While calls for widespread violence have not been identified for these protests, some local events do have flyers that depict violent graphics (see below flyer for Portland, Oregon. Portland has notably been a location
that experiences violence at protests more frequently.)
Figure 25. Planned Protest Against ICE in Portland, Oregon
As outlined in the above ‘Local Targets’ trend, G4S has identified particularly concerning posts recommending that far-right followers target soft targets and local targets on dates when law enforcement is expected to be focused
elsewhere.
Figure 26. Suggestion of “act locally” (Pro-Trump Website)
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PHOTO CREDIT: AP / JOHN MINCHILLO
General Calls for Violence
Finally, G4S notes that outside of formal calls to gather and protest, there continue to be a very high quantity of posts condoning and calling for violent action. A poll on the Proud Boys Telegram channel showed 75% voted for wanting “total war.”
Figure 27. Proud Boys Poll On Whether Members Wanted “Total War”
G4S continues to assess an elevated risk of political violence, including the risk of isolated acts of terrorism as well as a potential for mass violence. There are many individuals who are expressing frustration that Jan. 6 did not go further.
Counter-Protests
This analysis is largely focused on far-right violence as this is assessed as having increased most significantly in the past month, due in large part to groups feeling antagonized by recent political events. While other forms of political violence are possible, they are not expected to have significantly altered.
G4S has reviewed groups calling for racial justice, protesting against police brutality and specifically protesting far-right movements and fascism. While there are undoubtedly individuals across these movements who are more extremist themselves, G4S has not identified a significant increase in calls for violence amongst the groups reviewed on a larger scale.
There have been continued calls to form counter-protests, and G4S assesses that violence at protests is most likely where counter-protest groups meet. Communications within groups such as Black Lives Matter appear to currently be focused on continued grievances, hostility toward farright individuals and white supremacists and anger toward what many supporters view as a racially-motivated double standard in the response by law enforcement to the violence on Jan. 6. In the below image, it is unclear what is meant by “take the airports,” but this could be in reference to trying to prevent far-right individuals from flying to D.C.
Figure 29. Poll on a Black Lives Matter Telegram Channel, Asking For Responses To Jan. 6 Violence
