G20 Saudi Arabia: The Riyadh Summit by Global Governance Project

NOVEMBER 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

Welcome from Riyadh

Saudi Arabia hosts the first full-strength G20 summit virtually due to COVID-19

Opportunities for all

Realising the potential of the 21st century is central to the 2020 presidency

A far-reaching agenda Empowering people, safeguarding the planet and shaping new frontiers

Saudi Arabia

The Riyadh Summit

Published by GT Media Group Ltd.

Publisher: Khaled Algaay Director: Tom Kennedy Co-Editor: John Kirton Co-Editor: Madeline Koch Managing Editor: Emily Eastman Art Director: Steven Castelluccia Contact: 20-22 Wenlock Road, London N1 7GU, United Kingdom Tel: +44 207 6085137 Email: Connect@globalgovernanceproject.org @GloGovProj www.globalgovernanceproject.org G20 Research Group Contributors:

Saudi Arabia

The Riyadh Summit Produced and distributed by The Global Governance Project, a joint initiative between GT Media Group Ltd, a publishing company based in London, UK, and the G20 Research Group based at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at Trinity College in the University of Toronto. www.g20.utoronto.ca

G20 Research Group

The Global Governance Project provides a vital function for private- and public-sector organisations in support of their governance responsibilities. To carry out executive duties effectively, we must have access to unbiased, objective and independent opinion, based on actual policy set at and influenced by the G20 summits and their leadership.

Stéphanie Bussière Meagan Byrd Sonja Dobson Jane Filipiuk Ella Kokotsis Julia Kulik Maria Marchyshyn Michael Motala Chiara Oldani Jessica Rapson Denisse Rudich Brittaney Warren Meredith Williams Mary Zelenova

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PROMOTING A WIN-WIN APPROACH Joko Widodo, President, Indonesia

SAUDI ARABIA WELCOMES THE WORLD Foreword by John Kirton, Director, G20 Research Group

IN PURSUIT OF COLLECTIVE WELL-BEING Giuseppe Conte, Prime Minister, Italy

BUILDING BACK A BETTER WORLD AFTER COVID-19 Charles Michel, President, European Council

A FORCE MULTIPLIER FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY Narendra Modi, Prime Minister, India

LEADERS’ VIEWS

TOWARDS A NEW INTERNATIONAL ARCHITECTURE Alberto Ángel Fernández, President, Argentina

WORKING FOR A BETTER FUTURE Boris Johnson, Prime Minister, United Kingdom

COOPERATION IN EXCEPTIONAL TIMES Jair Bolsonaro, President of Brazil

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IN THE FACE OF THE VIRUS Xi Jinping, President, People’s Republic of China

LEADERS' VIEWS Comments from the G20 leaders that reflect their opinions on the agenda and work of the G20

HOW TO OVERCOME HUMAN SECURITY CRISES Yoshihide Suga, Prime Minister, Japan

GUEST LEADERS’ VIEWS

IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE PANDEMIC Cyril Ramaphosa, President, South Africa

FROM REACTION TO RECOVERY Abdulrahman Al Hamidy, Director General and Chair of the Board, Arab Monetary Fund

CONFRONTING NEW CHALLENGES Bandar M H Hajjar, President, Islamic Development Bank Group

POST-COVID INVESTMENTS Pedro Sánchez, President, Spain

DEALING WITH A NEW REALITY, LEAVING NO ONE BEHIND His Majesty King Abdullah II ibn Al Hussein of Jordan

EDITOR’S INTRODUCTION

THE PATH BEYOND THE PANDEMIC Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, President, Turkey

GUEST REGI ONAL ORGANI SATI ONS

THE WORLD IS WATCHING John Kirton, Director, G20 Research Group

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G20 PERFORMANCE ON HEALTH Meagan Byrd, G20 Research Group

G20 PERFORMANCE ON MACROECONOMIC POLICY Jane Filipiuk, G20 Research Group

HEALTH IN THE SPOTLIGHT Tawfig Al Rabiah, Minister of Health, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

PEOPLE-CENTRED HEALTH SYSTEMS 4

ENDING THE PANDEMIC REQUIRES G20 LEADERSHIP Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General, World Health Organization

THE BEGINNING OF THE END – WITHIN OUR GRASP Seth Berkley, CEO, Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance

HEALTH IS WEALTH Winnie Byanyima, Executive Director, UNAIDS

G20 PANDEMIC POLITICS IN A GLOBAL RISK SOCIETY Ilona Kickbusch, Co-Chair, UHC2030, and Founding Director, Global Health Centre

OPPORTUNITY IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

A UNITED FRONT AGAINST COVID-19 Mohammed A Al-Jadaan, Minister of Finance, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

HOW COVID-19 HAS AFFECTED THE WORLD’S FINANCIAL MARKETS Interview with Robert Fauver, Former US G7 sherpa

BOLD ACTION TO BUILD BACK BETTER Angel Gurría, Secretary-General, Organisation for Economic Co0operation and Development

WE STILL HAVE FAR TO GO Interview with Dennis Snower, President, Global Solutions Initiative

68 FINDING UNANIMITY ON SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE Interview with Larry Summers, Charles W Eliot University Professor and President Emeritus at Harvard University

COOPERATION: THE FOUNDATION OF A RESILIENT GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM Randal K Quarles, Chair, Financial Stability Board, and Vice Chair, US Federal Reserve

UNITED IN ACTION Chiara Oldani, University of Viterbo ‘La Tuscia’, and Pietro Maffettone, University of Napoli Federico II

SUPPORTING EMPLOYMENT

GLOBAL SOLUTIONS TO TAX CHALLENGES

Contents

G20 PERFORMANCE ON INTERNATIONAL TAXATION Michael Motala, Director of Tax Analysis, G20 Research Group

TAX AND DIGITALISATION: THE NEED FOR A MULTILATERAL RESPONSE Pascal Saint-Amans, director, Centre For Tax Policy and Administration, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

SAFEGUARDING THE WORLD OF WORK Ahmed Al-Rajhi, Minister of Human Resources and Social Development, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

EMPLOYMENTFOCUSED RECOVERY Guy Ryder, Director-General, International Labour Organization

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G20 PERFORMANCE ON TRADE Maria Marchyshyn, G20 Research Group

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G20 PERFORMANCE ON GENDER EQUALITY Julia Kulik, Director of Research, G20 Research Group

ON COMMON GROUND Majid bin Abdullah Al Qasabi, Minister of Commerce, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

AMBITION AND ADAPTATION: A VITAL YEAR FOR TOURISM Ahmed Al-Khateeb, Minister of Tourism, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

REDUCING IMPACTS ON TRADE Kunio Mikuriya, Secretary-General, World Customs Organization

TREATMENT FOR GLOBAL ILLS Mukhisa Kituyi, Secretary-General, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

TRADE POLICY: FLESHING OUT THE COVID-19 RESPONSE Simon J Evenett, Professor of International Trade and Economic Development, University of St Gallen, Switzerland

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A NEW ROUTE FORWARD Zurab Pololikashvili, Secretary-General, United Nations World Tourism Organization

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TOWARDS GENDER EQUITY

TOURISM: A FORCE FOR GOOD

COOPERATION ON TRADE AND INVESTMENT

G20 PERFORMANCE ON ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND SMEs Stéphanie Bussière, G20 Research Group

PATHWAYS FOR A GENDERRESPONSIVE RECOVERY Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, UN Under Secretary General and Executive Director, UN Women

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OPPORTUNITY IN EVERY CRISIS Alfred Hannig, Executive Director, Alliance for Financial Inclusion

SCALING UP SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

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G20 PERFORMANCE ON DEVELOPMENT Sonja Dobson, G20 Research Group

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A CRITICAL MOMENT Interview with Achim Steiner, Administrator, United Nations Development Programme

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G20 PERFORMANCE ON CLIMATE CHANGE Brittaney Warren, Director of Compliance, G20 Research Group

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G20 PERFORMANCE ON ENERGY Ella Kokotsis, Director of Accountability, G20 Research Group

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COLLECTIVE EFFORTS ON COMMON INTERESTS Abdulrahman AlFadley, Minister of Environment, Water and Agriculture, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

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DEMANDING DECISIVE LEADERSHIP ON CLIMATE ACTION Patricia Espinosa Cantellano, Executive Secretary to the UNFCCC

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STEPS TO PROTECT OUR PLANET Elizabeth Maruma Mrema, Executive Secretary, Convention on Biological Diversity

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CULTIVATING FOOD SECURITY IN THE AGE OF COVID-19 Gilbert F Houngbo, President, International Fund for Agricultural Development

SECURING THE FOOD SUPPLY

NATURE: OUR GREATEST ALLY Inger Andersen, UN Under Secretary-General and Executive Director, UN Environment Programme

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MULTILATERALISM AFTER COVID-19: A NECESSITY, NOT A CHOICE Audrey Azoulay, Director General, UNESCO

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A HEALTHY WORLD

21ST-CENTURY EDUCATION

WORKING TOGETHER FOR EDUCATION CONTINUITY Dr Hamad Mohammed Al-Sheikh, Minister of Education, Saudi Arabia

FUELLING A NEW ENERGY ERA His Royal Highness Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman bin Abdulaziz, Minister of Energy of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

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A DIRE NEED FOR SUBSTANTIAL ACTION David Beasley, Executive Director, World Food Programme

A CLEANER ENERGY ERA

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A TIME FOR EXTRAORDINARY LEADERSHIP Francesco La Camera, Director-General, IRENA

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COOPERATION AND COMMONALITIES Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, SecretaryGeneral, OPEC

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Contents

13 14 15 16 G20 PERFORMANCE ON THE DIGITAL ECONOMY Meredith Williams, Senior Researcher, G20 Research Group

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THE POWER OF DIGITALISATION Abdullah A Alswaha, Minister of Communications and Information Technology, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

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TECHNOLOGY IN INFRASTUCTURE

ENABLING THE DIGITAL ECONOMY

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FINANCE FOR STRONG FOUNDATIONS Interview with Marie Lam-Frendo, CEO, Global Infrastructure Hub

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SATISFYING DIVERSE FINANCING NEEDS Interview with Marcos Troyjo, President, New Development Bank

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G20 PERFORMANCE ON ANTI-CORRUPTION Denisse Rudich, Director, G20 Research Group London Office

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COLLECTIVELY FACING COVID-19 AND CLIMATE CHANGE Paul Martin, former Prime Minister of Canada

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ELEVATING THE GLOBAL ANTI-CORRUPTION AGENDA Mazin bin Ibrahim AlKahmous, President, Saudi Arabian Oversight and Anti-Corruption Authority

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UPROOTING CORRUPTION AROUND THE GLOBE Jürgen Stock, Secretary-General, INTERPOL

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LEAD BY EXAMPLE Marcus Pleyer, President, Financial Action Task Force

A STRONGER G20 SYSTEM

G20 PERFORMANCE ON INFRASTRUCTURE FOR DEVELOPMENT Mary Zelenova, Senior Researcher, G20 Research Group

COMBATTING CRIME AND CORRUPTION

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USING DATA TO IMPROVE COMPLIANCE Jessica Rapson, Senior Researcher, G20 Research Group

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THE ROAD TO RIYADH

His Royal Highness King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques 8

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Foreword

Saudi Arabia welcomes the world John Kirton Director, G20 Research Group

he G20’s Riyadh Summit on 21–22 November 2020 is a uniquely significant and truly historic event. It is the first time the G20 summit will be hosted by a member of the Gulf Cooperation Council, and the second time in a Muslim majority country and by a G20 member beyond the G7, the BRICS group of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, or the MIKTA group of Mexico, Indonesia, Korea, Turkey and Australia. It allows Saudi Arabia as host to showcase, strengthen and share with the world the pioneering path and early achievements of its own Vision 2030. The now virtual Riyadh Summit is scheduled to include all G20 leaders under the chair of Saudi Arabia’s Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud. Fellow veterans are Germany’s Angela Merkel, China’s Xi Jinping, Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Canada’s Justin Trudeau, India’s Narendra Modi (who hosts the BRICS summit in 2021 and the G20’s in 2022) and Turkey’s Recip Tayyip Erdoğan. Also experienced are Korea’s Moon Jae-in, France’s Emmanuel Macron, South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa, Indonesia’s Joko Widodo, America’s Donald Trump, Italy’s Giuseppe Conte (who hosts the G20 in 2021), Australia’s Scott Morrison and Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro. Newer faces at the summit are Mexico’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the United Kingdom’s Boris Johnson (who hosts the G7 in 2021), Argentina’s Alberto Fernández, Japan’s Yoshihide Suga and the European Union’s Charles Michel and Ursula von der Leyen.

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The Riyadh Summit will build on the firm foundation laid by the fast start of G20 summitry in 2020, with the first ever G20 emergency summit taking place virtually on 26 March 2020. In their concluding statement there, the leaders pledged to do “whatever it takes” to protect lives, safeguard people’s jobs and incomes, and improve their economic fortunes. The statement’s section on “Fighting the Pandemic” outlined a wide range of instruments to do so. The section on “Safeguarding the Global Economy” presented measures to minimise the social and economic damage, restore growth and maintain market stability. The section on “Addressing Trade Disputes” promised trade measures to “support the health and well-being of all people”. The concluding section, “Enhancing Global Cooperation”, integrated the G20’s health, economic and trade measures, adding tourism, refugees and migrants, and the security issues of border management and citizen repatriation. Further momentum for Riyadh comes from the unprecedented intensity and breadth of this year’s G20 ministerial meetings. By mid November, the Saudi presidency had hosted 26 ministerial meetings for 12 different portfolios – for finance (and central bank governors), trade (and investment), energy, health, agriculture, labour, tourism, digitalisation, education, foreign affairs and the environment. At Riyadh, G20 leaders will do much more to help a still struggling world. Everyone in the world critically depends on their success.

GLOBAL PARTNERS The G20 leaders will be joined by Pedro Sánchez, Spain’s prime minister, King Abdullah II ibn Al Hussein of Jordan, Simonetta Sommaruga, president of Switzerland, Lee Hsien Loong, prime minister of Singapore, Sheikh Khalifa Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, president of the United Arab Emirates and GCC chair, Paul Kagame, president of Rwanda and chair of the New Partnership for Africa’s Development, and His Excellency Nguyên Xuân Phúc, prime minister of Vietnam and chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Also participating are the heads of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, World Health Organization, Financial Stability Board, Food and Agriculture Organization, International Labour Organization, World Trade Organization, World Bank, International Monetary Fund and United Nations. JOHN KIRTON These leaders will address John Kirton is the founder and director of the G20 the host’s overarching theme Research Group, G7 Research Group and the Global of “Realising Opportunities of Health Diplomacy Program and co-director of the the 21st Century for All” and its BRICS Research Group, all based at Trinity College three pillars of “Empowering at the Munk School of Global People”, “Safeguarding the Affairs and Public Policy in the Planet” and “Shaping New University of Toronto, where Frontiers”, as announced he is a professor of political on 1 December 2019 when science. He is author of many Saudi Arabia assumed the articles and books, including G20 presidency. They will G20 Governance of a Globalized further focus on the many, World, and co-author with unprecedented, interconnected Ella Kokotsis of The Global health, economic, social and Governance of Climate Change: ecological crises brought G7, G20 and UN Leadership. by the deadly, destructive COVID-19 pandemic that Twitter @jjkirton erupted soon after.

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Dubai Chamber

The sky is no longer the limit

With the world entangled in the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries have shifted focus to quick wins for the here and now. But in the UAE, a new 50-year strategy has launched its space sector into orbit and is now eyeing greater competitiveness, innovation and opportunities for the future

his year has been one of the most difficult in living memory. Countries have been locked down, populations have suffered and economies have taken an enormous hit to their gross domestic product. For the business community, 2020 has meant a forced rethink of how and where we work – and we have seen organisations worldwide rise to the challenge. It is in the response of the business community that we find hope for the future. Because, despite the pause that 2020 has forced upon us, we have seen businesses remain optimistic, hopeful and excited for the future.

This is especially evident in the United Arab Emirates, where focus has shifted to engaging youth in science – and space. His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, vice president and prime minister of the UAE and ruler of Dubai, has called the space sector a “major nerve” in the economy. Targeted investment has helped attract young people to the sciences, which aligns with the goals of the UAE’s National Space Strategy 2030. Launched in 2019 by the UAE Space Agency, the strategy seeks to make our space the best in the world. From Hamadsector Buamim providing competitive, world-class space

Hamad Buamim, President and CEO, Dubai Chamber of Commerce and Industry

services to forging effective partnerships and space investments and launching inspiring missions, we are excited to share where this work takes us. The strategy feeds into the National Space Investment Plan, through which we’re working towards the objectives of UAE Vision 2021 and UAE Centennial 2071. Our long-term aim is to become an economic, social and environmental world leader and, as part of this, the plan also aligns with the Higher Policy for Science, Technology, Innovation and the strategy for the UAE’s fourth industrial revolution, 4IR.

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

INDUSTRY PERSPECTIVE

We are witnessing a shift in the UAE towards a knowledge-based economy, and it is my hope that this gear change will inspire many future generations of Arab youth” in space exploration and technology. For Dubai business, this means a suite of fresh opportunities – not only in the space sector, but also in related industries. Growth and development breed work, and the Dubai Chamber stands ready to support those businesses involved in pioneering a new era of technological innovation and international cooperation. We are witnessing a shift in the UAE towards a knowledge-based economy, and it is my hope that this gear change will inspire many future generations of Arab youth.

HH Sheikh Mohammed credited the private sector for the development of the National Space Strategy, which has received $5 billion in investment from the UAE. Various projects and missions are receiving finance, including the Arab’s world’s first mission to Mars: the Hope Probe. The region watched with anticipation as scientists from the Mohammed bin Rashid Space Centre launched the mission, which is due to enter Mars’ orbit this coming February. The Space Centre is playing a key role in positioning us as global space leaders. The next 10 years will see ongoing work to establish a new phase of Emirati potential globalgovernanceproject.org

DESIGNING THE NEXT 50 YEARS Efforts in the space sector form part of the UAE’s overarching vision for the next five decades. A new project, ‘Designing the Next 50’, invites citizens and residents to unite in establishing the pillars and components of the UAE Centennial Plan 2071 as part of declaring the year ‘2020: Towards the Next 50’. The project draws its inspiration from the work of the UAE’s founders who, 50 years ago, started a mission to involve people in shaping the country’s future – the success of which I and my fellow Emiratis can see clearly today. It is a pleasure to see citizens and residents get a say in what the future of the region will look like – from rapid enhancements in health and education to fast-growing tourism and a deep embedding of our shared values. As we support one another through what continues to be an incredibly challenging year, there is comfort to be found in the resilience and optimism that has wound its way through these difficult months.

HAMAD BUAMIM Chair, ICC – World Chambers Federation, and president and CEO, Dubai Chamber of Commerce and Industry Holding his current position since 2006, His Excellency Hamad Buamim is the president and CEO of Dubai Chamber of Commerce and Industry. He is also the chair of the Paris-based ICC - World Chambers Federation. Buamim serves as a board member of Dubai World, Dubai International Financial Center and acts as chair of National General Insurance PJSC.

As the G20 hosts its summit from Riyadh, the world will be watching to see how it envisages our shared emergence from the current COVID-19 crisis. But in the UAE, with its history of implementing long-term visions, plans and strategies, eyes will also be searching farther forward – towards enhanced global competitiveness, greater innovation, stronger global competitiveness and a cemented position as the land of dreams and opportunities.

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LEADERS’ VIEWS

Giuseppe Conte Prime Minister, Italy … The COVID-19 pandemic has indiscriminately plagued every region and people of the world, putting humanity, once again, to the test. This tragedy has changed us, but has also offered us the opportunity for a “new beginning” … that is up to us to seize: after these months of suffering, we look each other in the eye differently, calling on a new sense of reciprocity and renewed spirit of solidarity. Italy was the first Country in Europe and in the West to have faced the emergency on a large-scale. Our Country has become the symbol of a collective effort – a human effort, before being a health or political one, later serving to benefit the entire international community. … From the very start, we proposed the constitution of an international alliance in the fight against COVID-19. This initiative has enabled us to mobilize, in record timing, more than €40 billion as the global response of the European Union to the crisis, in particular, to guarantee equal and universal access to a vaccine, diagnostics and therapeutics. Italy considers these to be global public goods, with the objective of leaving no one behind. We have endeavoured in all of the main international fora and settings of world governance for a multilateral response in both the health and economic sectors, in the form of extraordinary measures. … … [The] announcement by the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, of a “Global Health Summit” to be held in Italy in 2021 – precisely during Italy’s G20 Presidency – is a testament to our determined commitment to deliver. It will be a time for coordination but also a tangible demonstration of renewed multilateral cohesion, based on the pursuit of collective well-being. A decisive step toward the crucial role of international cooperation, in which we place our strongest hopes. SHARED RESPONSIBILITY It is in this spirit that Italy now advances an approach inspired by the “ethics of vulnerability”, which calls on all members of the international community to assume their share of collective responsibility for “global public goods”, such as fundamental human rights, health, education, sustainability, social and institutional resilience. … We are well aware of the responsibility that, with the G20 Presidency, our country 12

In pursuit of collective well-being will be vested with to lead global efforts. We especially cannot ignore the particular moment in history our global community is living, to which our work in this august Assembly will be added. We firmly believe that the upcoming G20 in Italy can be an opportunity for a collective renewal, a time to solidify that sense of community that every nation nourished in the darkest hours of the pandemic. We can leverage the synergy and brotherand sisterhood necessary to transform the tragedy of what happened into an opportunity for rebirth and regeneration. We can imagine, together, a New Humanism that puts people front and centre. Italy’s agenda will focus on: People, Planet and Prosperity. We call them the three Ps. We wish to seize opportunities for change by fighting injustice and inequity, because a more equitable and inclusive society is not only more just; it is also more prosperous and, globally, more democratic. Particular attention will be given to the empowerment of women, on small and medium enterprises, on precarious workers. Access to digital technology, which for too long has been a source of inequity, should

become a driver for inclusive growth, offering opportunities to all. These efforts fall within the two pillars of [the 2030 Agenda] and the Paris Agreement. We will be promoting sustainable, inclusive and resilient growth. The pandemic has opened new horizons for strategies to fight climate change and for environmental protection. We will need to work together so that our renewed ambitions regarding climate change are not disconnected from the promotion of investments and policies for socio-economic recovery. The European “Green Deal” is now more than ever necessary to win this challenge of the green transition. Safeguarding biodiversity, protecting the oceans and reversing soil erosion represent essential variables in combating climate change. … They must all come together as part of the same, shared narrative. … Our partnership with the United Kingdom in organising the 26th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change will reaffirm Italy’s role in this sphere. … Statement to the 75th United Nations General Assembly, 25 September 2020

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LEADERS’ VIEWS

Alberto Ángel Fernández President, Argentina

Towards a new international architecture

e are called upon to reflect in the context of the G20 summit precisely at a time when history demands we act courageously and with determination. We face an unprecedented health and economic crisis, of uncertain duration and magnitude – an emergency with an impact on health, productive development, employment and poverty that knows no borders. The success of a country’s preventive health care depends on the success of other countries, just as employment recovery in any one country is directly tied to how fast others come out of recession. The pandemic and its impacts on health and the social and productive structure jeopardise political stability and security globally. We face a challenge that demands enhanced international cooperation to deal with it effectively, thereby turning the challenge into an opportunity. The International Monetary Fund announced in June that the global economy will contract by 4.9% this year, which will lead to massive losses of jobs and incomes. This symmetrical crisis has struck the world on an equal basis, yet has an asymmetrical impact. Emerging economies have been doubly affected. With higher levels of informal employment and inequality and more limited fiscal policy capacity, in addition to the direct effects of the pandemic, we have been hit by sudden capital flight, a fall in the price of primary products, an increase in the spread on sovereign loans and currency depreciation. For Latin America, regional gross domestic product will contract by 9.4%, higher than anticipated for Africa, the Middle East or Asia. This reveals the dramatic reality faced by the most vulnerable sectors in a scenario where the income of more than 53 million people will fall below the poverty line. FACING GLOBAL CRISES The G20 has in the past demonstrated its potential to face global crises. Today, it finds in the COVID-19 pandemic the challenge of coordinating the main global actors to give a global, determined and coordinated response to mitigate the adverse social and economic effects, by increasing resilience and preparing both emerging economies and advanced countries to overcome any future obstacles. 14

We are going through times of crisis that force us to devise innovative initiatives and measures to reactivate the economy and address the social and economic problems caused by the pandemic. It is essential for the G20 to focus on policies that protect employment, production and the quality of life, by making the necessary resources available to increase global liquidity. In this turbulent global context, Argentina has reached an important agreement with its private creditors, thus becoming among the first countries to meet the challenge of restructuring its debt during the pandemic. In this process, Argentina had strong local and international support. The support of the international community, including G20 members, civil society and the international academic community, has been fundamental to advancing towards putting Argentina back on its feet. Recovering the sustainability of public debt is a key step in calming the economy. We are laying the foundations for a healthy economy, one that will attract investment in the Argentine productive system and generate the necessary resources for financing inclusive and sustainable development. In this regard, we support the G20’s initiatives on sovereign debt. We call on the international community to continue seeking solutions to restore debt sustainability for emerging and low-income countries, as well as to rethink multilateral-based alternatives for increased global liquidity, thus allowing not only speedier recovery, but also the availability of resources to implement public policies for inclusive growth, so that no one is left behind. In Pope Francis’s words, “no one can be saved from this crisis alone”. In March, in the context of the Extraordinary G20 Leaders’ Summit, I called for a “Global Solidarity Pact” and the creation of a “Humanitarian Fund” by focusing our joint efforts on much-needed economic recovery to build a fairer, more inclusive and solidarity-driven society. Let us be the architects of an international system that promotes the protection of life as a priority; let us work together for the development and equitable distribution of effective vaccines and treatments to face this pandemic and any future pandemics, and to secure universal access to health care. Topics on our pre-pandemic agenda, such as migration, climate change, the technological revolution, Industry 4.0 and the digital revolution, call for new approaches and vast resources to address the recovery and conversion of our economies. History demands from us world leaders responsibility and balance, creativity and courage. The world that will emerge after the pandemic will not be the same. It will be up to each of us to shape a more solidarity-driven, democratic and cooperative future – it is our responsibility as leaders to build a better world in which the opportunities offered by the 21st century are within reach for all.

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

LEADERS’ VIEWS

Jair Bolsonaro President, Brazil

n 2020, the world is facing unprecedented challenges to combat the COVID-19 crisis and its many nefarious effects. We certainly live in exceptional times. For this reason, I have actively participated in the response given by G20 leaders, who acted swiftly and responsibly when recognising, in the Extraordinary G20 Leaders’ Summit Statement on 26 March, the need for a balanced response to the serious crises in health, economy, trade and international cooperation. Measures adopted to overcome the pandemic have resulted in both failures and successes, which should serve as lessons for us all. If, on the one hand, nation-states played a central role in combatting COVID-19 and protecting the economy, on the other, cooperation in the international system proved to be flawed and restricted. Many argue that the pandemic shows us the need for more ‘multilateralism’. But it is difficult to back such a thesis when we observe the behaviour of the World Health Organization, which, since the beginning of the crisis, has issued contradictory recommendations and comments, some often to the point of inconsequence, creating disorientation and animosity, failing in its role of coordinating the efforts of its member states and, instead, trying to impose itself on them. To put it clearly: at the heart of this crisis, there is a multilateral organisation that has failed. How, then, are we to learn from the pandemic the lesson that we need in view of such behaviour? We do not need more multilateralism. We need better multilateral institutions. Our government has therefore been supporting ongoing efforts to assess the quality of the international response, especially the ability of the World Health Organization to act appropriately. We need more efficient mechanisms to monitor and address potential new outbreaks. We advocate universal, equitable and affordable access to vaccines, diagnostic tests and safe treatments against COVID-19. That is why we are undertaking international arrangements and initiatives such as the Access to COVID-19 Tools

employment and income in this difficult moment. Our government launched a comprehensive programme to overcome the economic and social effects of COVID-19. The primary fiscal impact of this effort corresponds to 8.4% of Brazilian gross domestic product – 1.3% above the average of developed countries and 4.1% above the average of developing ones. If we add the credit provision through state-owned banks and support to federal states and municipalities, the amount rises to approximately 12.8% of our GDP. We intend to recover economic activity, give renewed impetus to our internal reforms and, thus, promote the sustained growth of the country. As we move forwards in combatting the health and economic crises, we must also return to important points on the international cooperation agenda. The reform of the World Trade Organization, which was necessary before the pandemic, is now key for the recovery of the global economy. Brazil has participated actively in the debates and supports the efforts of the Saudi G20 presidency to promote the reform of the WTO. The same impetus to liberalise trade in industrial goods must also be applied in proposals to reduce subsidies for agricultural goods. This is a topic of tremendous relevance for Brazil and for many other developing countries. WTO reform must also include investment facilitation and the creation of fair and balanced conditions for international trade, not only in goods but also in services. Our government remains committed to the Paris Agreement. We do believe, however, that all member states must assume their responsibilities. The debates in the G20 must be based on the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities, in light of each country’s national capabilities and circumstances. Brazil remains set to cooperate with all other members of the G20 to overcome the current crises in such exceptional times. We hope that the Riyadh Summit will give renewed impetus to tackle the pandemic, recover the global economy and restore our societies towards prosperity.

Accelerator, COVAX, the Solidarity Trial and Solidarity Call to Action. COORDINATED FISCAL SUPPORT The G20 has played a key role in coordinating efforts for $10 trillion in collective fiscal support. The group was also instrumental in creating the action plan agreed upon by the finance ministers and central bank governors, and for the adoption of the Debt Service Suspension Initiative. These policies have ensured market liquidity and mitigated the economic impact caused by the health challenges and by inappropriate responses to the pandemic. Before the pandemic, Brazil was on a recovery path towards economic growth and promoting structural reforms, such as reforming the national pension system. The crisis brought novel and urgent agendas. Political decisions were then oriented towards expanding capacity for assistance in health and supporting companies and workers, assuring

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

Photo: Isac Nobrega

Cooperation in exceptional times

LEADERS’ VIEWS

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan President, Turkey

he G20 has become the premier forum for international cooperation in overcoming many challenges faced by countries after the 2008 global financial crisis. I believe that the G20 can also play a key role in combatting the global COVID-19 pandemic. COVID-19 has become one of the biggest tragedies of our age due to its devastating effects on the global and national economies as well as on health systems. In the first half of 2020 we have seen significant losses in production and growth, and increases in unemployment rates and poverty stemming from those challenges in the world. Although the effects of COVID-19 have been subdued thanks to supportive policies, returning to pre-pandemic economic conditions will be only achievable by controlling the spread of the virus. However, it is also essential to strike the right balance between public health measures and ensuring the continuation of social and economic activities. Turkey was caught relatively well prepared against COVID-19. We have taken advantage of our investments, particularly in the health sector over the past 18 years. With the contribution of our strong health infrastructure, inclusive social protection systems, timely measures and the dedication of 1.1 million health workers, we have overcome the first wave of the pandemic with the least damage. We further strengthened our health infrastructure by building 15 new hospitals with a total of 16,000 beds and 10 additional service facilities. While meeting the needs of our citizens, we have also sent medical supplies to 155 countries and eight international organisations regardless of their religion, language and race. A PERIOD OF RAPID RECOVERY We have launched the Economic Stability Shield Package for households, tradespeople and firms to minimise the adverse effects of the pandemic. We have periodically updated and extended its scope by considering emerging needs and circumstances. Thanks to the policy measures we have taken, our economy achieved a rapid recovery period. Despite the pessimistic global economic outlook, we expect to complete the year 2020 with economic growth.

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The path beyond the pandemic Through effective international cooperation and solidarity, we can put an end to the pandemic, which is a global challenge, and eliminate its adverse economic effects. The coronavirus pandemic has once again demonstrated the significance of the G20’s cooperation and consensus spirit. As we did during the global financial crisis, we must now act in solidarity and strive to restore global confidence. The G20 must play a leading role, take responsibility and adopt a collaborative approach on a global scale. During the pandemic, we have seen that disruptions in supply chains also have global effects, considering the long, intertwined structures in global trade. In this regard, the G20 should take steps to facilitate international trade. We should concentrate our efforts towards making supply chains resilient in the long run. I would like to emphasise the importance of cooperation among G20 members, including through swap agreements, in alleviating the financial impact of the pandemic. We need to accomplish these agreements immediately in order to ensure confidence in the global economy. Furthermore, we should not allow the challenges we are currently facing to

strengthen the protectionist tendencies prevailing in global trade and to cause the rise in policies that are incompatible with the principles of the World Trade Organization. An open, multilateral and rule-based international trading system in which the WTO is at the centre would play a major role in reducing the unfavourable effects of pandemic measures. We are witnessing the pandemic sharpen existing injustices and inequalities in the world. Especially disadvantaged segments of society feel the burden of the pandemic more. Unfortunately, health systems in countries affected by conflicts and wars have become blocked and unusable. Refugees and forcibly displaced persons are at the highest risk of experiencing devastating losses from the pandemic. Turkey hosts the highest number of refugees in the world and has become a safe harbour for 4 million foreigners, of whom 3.6 million are Syrians, who have been forced to leave their countries. Each country should play its part and share the burden and responsibility equitably in this refugee reality. It is also important to mobilise humanitarian aid and financial sources especially for war-affected areas and populations at risk. This pandemic has reminded all of us that despite the differences in our languages, religions and countries, our fate is common. None of us has the luxury of implementing protectionist and unilateral policies. It should not be forgotten that nobody would be safe until everyone is safe. As the COVID-19 vaccine is developed, it is essential to ensure all countries have fair and equal access to it and not to allow vaccine nationalism. Moreover, it is critical that all countries work in cooperation with the World Health Organization. Combatting climate change, which is one of the topics of the Riyadh Summit, means safeguarding not only our present but also our future. Turkey plays its part in the fight against environmental problems, climate change and biodiversity losses. We believe that countries should contribute in line with their historical responsibilities and development stages. I would like to once again highlight the importance of international cooperation and the G20 platform in building more prosperous and inclusive societies. I hope the Riyadh Summit would bring favourable results in overcoming the crisis as soon as possible through strengthening the ties among our countries.

November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

LEADERS’ VIEWS

Charles Michel President, European Council

Building back a better world after COVID-19

t is fair to say that the COVID-19 pandemic has turned the planet upside down. It has dramatically changed people’s lives and led public authorities to alter their policy priorities. The fight against COVID-19 has been at the top of the international agenda from the outset. The Saudi presidency of the G20 immediately acknowledged this, organising a virtual summit on 26 March and refocusing the G20 agenda to respond to the pandemic and the economic crisis. Italy, which assumes the presidency next year, is already planning to extend this crucial coordination into 2021. The first issue at stake in this global and unprecedented crisis is, of course, health. In the wake of the G20 leaders’ videoconference in March, the European Union organised a marathon fundraising event that has so far raised €16 billion. I would like to pay tribute to the countries that contributed to this initiative and joined the Access to COVID-19 Tools Accelerator and the COVAX Facility. Two issues require our utmost attention. First, the urgency of the situation should not lead us to compromise on the safety of future vaccines. Second, vaccines must be affordable and universally accessible throughout the world. Vaccines should be a global public good. The coordination of global health management by the World Health Organization has been crucial. The EU supports strengthening the WHO, taking into account the lessons learned from the international response to the pandemic. I hope it will be possible to launch the necessary reforms on the basis of the independent evaluation of WHO’s action requested by the World Health Assembly last May, at the initiative of the EU.

ON THE ECONOMY On the economic front, the robust response of G20 members, coordinated by the Joint Action Plan, has made a difference by combining fiscal, monetary and financial instruments. This ambitious and concerted G20 response will need to continue throughout the recovery. Our ambition should not simply be to return our economies to pre-crisis levels. We must do everything we can to ensure that, once the recovery is under way, we are able to return to the levels we would have reached had the crisis not occurred. COVID-19 has struck our most fundamental and precious possessions: life and health. These are affected directly by our natural environment, and also by our economic and social environment. This should lead us, as political leaders, to place well-being – individual and social – at the centre of our recovery strategy. It is our job to help set the economy on a more resilient, sustainable and inclusive growth path. The EU’s strategic agenda will help build back better based on two main pillars: the Green Deal and the Digital Agenda. In December 2019, the European Council decided that the EU will be the first carbon-neutral economy by 2050. This ambition is the focal point of our Green Deal, a comprehensive strategy to help save the planet from global warming. The development of environmental technologies will provide the EU with new growth opportunities. The EU wants to lead by example and is

therefore preparing to raise its emission reduction target for 2030 in the run-up to the 26th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 2021. We also call for an ambitious global agreement at next year’s UN Conference on Biodiversity. THE DIGITAL AGENDA As for our Digital Agenda, it is to the digital transition what the Green Deal is to the climate transition: a concrete strategic plan. Our aim is to create the conditions to empower the economic actors, so the EU can make the most of the vast potential of data. Initiated before the COVID-19 crisis, these two major European projects are even more essential now. COVID-19 has led the EU to take decisions that are unprecedented in scope and speed. After endorsing a €540 billion safety net for citizens, businesses and member states in the first weeks of the pandemic, the European Council adopted a budget in July, supplemented by a recovery fund, totalling €1.8 trillion for the coming years. The EU will raise up to €750 billion on international capital markets. The EU fully supports the rules-based international order. International trade – a major source of growth for our economy – must operate on a level playing field. The EU is committed to overall tax fairness, particularly in the digital sector, where large-scale activities can no longer escape fair taxation. The EU is committed, alongside the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the G20, to international cooperation to correct this injustice. And the EU wants to see the World Trade Organization reformed, to ensure its ability to act effectively in a changing global context. The Riyadh initiative is a welcome contribution to this effort. COVID-19 has amplified many global imbalances that existed prior to the crisis. The pandemic has hit the most fragile hardest. This is the case for low-income countries. The Debt Service Suspension Initiative endorsed by the G20 finance ministers is highly welcome. But more efforts are needed to address the debt problems of the poorest countries, notably in Africa. We must be able to discuss debt relief – or even debt forgiveness – and all creditors need to do their share. The EU has embarked on a path of profound transformation that will make it stronger and benefit all Europeans. A stronger Europe will contribute even more to make the world better through multilateral cooperation.

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

LEADERS’ VIEWS

Narendra Modi Prime Minister, India … In the 21st century, the requirements and challenges of our present as well as our future are vastly different from those of the past. … With the changing times, if we don’t change, then the drive needed to bring change will also get weakened. … One could say that we have successfully avoided a third world war. But we cannot deny that there have been several wars, and many more civil wars. Several terrorist attacks shook the world and rivers of blood have continued to flow by. In these wars and in these attacks, the people who died, they are people just like you and me. Hundreds and thousands of children, who would have otherwise enriched this world with their presence, have left us prematurely. So many people have lost their entire life savings and have become homeless refugees. During those times and even today, can we suggest that efforts of the United Nations to tackle these issues were sufficient. Over the past … nine months, the whole world has been battling the pandemic of the coronavirus. Where is the UN in this joint fight against the pandemic? Where is its effective response? … Reform in the responses, in the processes, and in the very character of the UN is the need of the hour. … Even during these very difficult times of the raging pandemic, the pharmaceutical industry of India has sent essential medicines to more than 150 countries. As the largest vaccine-producing country of the world, I want to give one more assurance to the global community today. India’s vaccine production and delivery capacity will be used to help all humanity in fighting this crisis. In India and in our neighbourhood, we are globalgovernanceproject.org

moving ahead with phase 3 clinical trials in India. India will also help all the countries in enhancing their cold chain and storage capacities for the delivery of the Vaccines. … Starting from January next year, India will also fulfil its responsibility as a non-permanent member of the Security Council. … EXPERIENCE FOR THE WORLD As the world’s largest democracy we will bring our years of rich developmental experience for the benefit of the whole world. …

A force multiplier for the global economy

India will not hesitate in raising its voice against the enemies of humanity, human race and human values – these include terrorism, smuggling of illegal weapons, drugs and money-laundering. … Following the mantra of Reform-PerformTransform, India has made great efforts to bring about transformation in the lives of millions of its citizens. These experiences are as useful for many countries of the world as they have been for us. … Today, India is one of the leaders in Digital Transactions. Today, India is providing Digital Access to its millions of citizens, and in the process ensuring empowerment and transparency. Today, we have also launched an ambitious campaign for a Tuberculosis-free India by 2025. Today, India is implementing a programme for providing piped drinking water to 150 million rural households. Just a few days ago India has initiated a huge project for connecting its 600,000 villages with broadband optical fibre. … In the changed circumstances of the post-pandemic era, we are moving forward with the vision of a “Self-reliant India”. A Self-reliant India will also be a force multiplier for the global economy. Today, it is also being ensured that there is no discrimination in extending the benefits of all the schemes and initiatives to every citizen of the country. Large-scale efforts are being made in India to promote women entrepreneurship and leadership. … In its journey towards progress, India wants to learn from the world as well as share its own experiences with the world. … Statement to the 75th United Nations General Assembly, 26 September 2020

November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

LEADERS’ VIEWS

Boris Johnson Prime Minister, United Kingdom

Working for a better future … There is the very fact of this summit, the first of its kind. The Leaders’ Pledge for Nature has been signed by the heads of many nations, including, I am proud to say, myself. And that’s not all the UK has been doing. At home we’re putting biodiversity targets into law; removing deforestation from our own supply chains; shifting our land use subsidies to support rather than damage nature. Internationally, we spearheaded the ambitious Global Ocean Alliance, committed to protecting at least 30%of the world’s oceans by 2030. We’ve doubled our funding for International Climate Finance. We are launching a £500 million Blue Planet Fund to protect and restore marine ecosystems, and our Blue Belt programme is on track to protect marine areas the size of India. And of course as co-host of [the 26th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change] and president of next year’s G7 we are going to make sure the natural world stays right at the top of the global agenda. … Speech at the UN High-Level Summit on Biodiversity, 30 September 2020

… The Covid crisis is a catalyst for change, and we need to give people the chance to train for the new jobs that are being created every day. And there is one area where we are progressing with gale-force speed; and that is the green economy, the green industrial revolution that in the next 10 years will create hundreds of thousands if not millions of jobs. I can today announce that the UK government has decided to become the world leader in low-cost clean power generation – cheaper than coal, cheaper than gas; and we believe that in ten years’ time offshore wind will be powering every home in the country, with our target rising from 30 gigawatts to 40 gigawatts. … As Saudi Arabia is to oil, the UK is to wind – a place of almost limitless resource, but in the case of wind without the carbon emissions, without the damage to the environment. … Imagine that future – with high-skilled, green-collar jobs in wind, in solar, in nuclear, in hydrogen and in carbon capture and storage. Retrofitting homes, ground source heat pumps. … We believe in Global Britain as a proud independent and outward-looking country, and next year we will lead the world in the G7, and at the COP 26 summit in Glasgow, with three great campaigns to bring the world together – to heal the world, tackling the virus, tackling climate change, and global free trade. … I want you to imagine that you are arriving in Britain in 2030, when I hope that much of the programme I have outlined will be delivered, and you arrive in your zero carbon jet made in the UK and you flash your Brexit blue passport or your digital ID, you get an EV digital taxi; and as you travel around you see a country that has been and is being transformed for the better – where young people in their 20s and 30s have the joy of home ownership, and where they can bring up their children in the neighbourhoods where they grew up themselves, in the confidence that the schools are excellent and that crime is down; and instead of being dragged on big commutes to the city, they can start a business in their hometown, a place that has not only superb transport connections and green buses, but gigabit broadband, and where the workforce is abundantly equipped not just with university degrees but with the technical skills that the new economy demands. And among other new landmarks you will see 48 new hospitals, and a population that is healthier and happier and quite a bit thinner from better diet, and taking so much exercise in the new cycle lanes, and walking among the millions of trees that have been planted, and going for picnics in the new wild belts that now mark the landscape. You will notice that the air is cleaner because most people are now driving EVs, while some of the trucks are actually running on hydrogen, and even some of the trains. … Keynote speech to the Conservative Party Conference, 6 October 2020

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

LEADERS’ VIEWS

Xi Jinping President, People’s Republic of China

In the face of the virus

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e humans are battling COVID-19, a virus that has ravaged the world and has kept resurging. … Facing the virus, we should put people and life first. We should mobilise all resources to make a science-based and targeted response. No case should be missed and no patient should be left untreated. … Facing the virus, we should enhance solidarity and get [through this] together. We should follow the guidance of science, give full play to the leading role of the World Health Organization and launch a joint international response to beat this pandemic. Any attempt of politicising the issue or stigmatisation must be rejected. Facing the virus, we should adopt comprehensive and long-term control measures. We should reopen businesses and schools in an orderly way, so as to create jobs, boost the economy, and restore economic and social order and vitality. The major economies need to step up macro policy coordination. We should not only restart our own economies, but also contribute to global recovery. Facing the virus, we should show concern for and accommodate the needs of developing countries, especially African countries. The international community needs to take timely and robust measures in such fields as debt relief and international assistance, ensure the implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and help these countries overcome their difficulties. …

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VACCINES AS A GLOBAL PUBLIC GOOD Going forward, we will continue to share our epidemic control practices as well as diagnostics and therapeutics with other countries, provide support and assistance to countries in need, ensure stable global anti-epidemic supply chains, and actively participate in the global research on tracing the source and transmission routes of the virus. At the moment, several COVID-19 vaccines developed by China are in Phase III clinical trials. When their development is completed and they are available for use, these vaccines will be made a global public good, and they will be provided to other developing countries on a priority basis. China will honour its commitment of providing $2 billion of international assistance over two years, further international cooperation in such fields as agriculture, poverty reduction, education, women and children, and climate change, and support other countries in restoring economic and social development. … First, COVID-19 reminds us that we are living in an interconnected global village with a common stake. … Second, COVID-19 reminds us that economic globalisation is an indisputable reality and a historical trend. … Third, COVID-19 reminds us that humankind should launch a green revolution and move faster to create a green way of development and life, preserve the environment and make Mother Earth a better place for all .… Fourth, COVID-19 reminds us that the global governance system calls for reform and improvement. COVID-19 is a major test of the governance capacity of countries; it is also a test of the global governance system.

reminds us of the interdependence between man and Nature. It falls to all of us to act together and urgently to advance protection and development in parallel, so that we can turn Earth into a beautiful homeland for all creatures to live in harmony. To that end, I would like to make the following proposals. First, we need to adhere to ecological civilization and increase the drive for building a beautiful world. … Second, we need to uphold multilateralism and build synergy for global governance on the environment. … Third, we need to continue with green development and increase the potential for high-quality economic recovery after COVID-19. … Fourth, we need to heighten our sense of responsibility and strengthen the power of action to tackle challenges to the environment. … “Ecological Civilization: Building a Shared Future for All Life on Earth”, which is the theme of next year’s Biodiversity Conference in Kunming, embodies humanity’s hope for a better future. As the host country of COP15, China is happy to share with all parties its experience of advancing biodiversity governance and ecological progress. Speech to the UN Summit on Biodiversity, 30 September 2020

Statement to the 75th United Nations General Assembly, 22 September 2020

The 15th meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (COP15) will be hosted by China next year in the city of Kunming. COP15 offers an opportunity for the parties to adopt new strategies for global biodiversity governance. … At present, there exists an acceleration of the global extinction of species. The loss of biodiversity and the degradation of the ecosystem pose a major risk to human survival and development. COVID-19 November November2020 2020——G20 G20SAUDI SAUDIARABIA: ARABIA:THE THERIYADH RIYADHSUMMIT SUMMIT

LEADERS’ VIEWS

Cyril Ramaphosa President, South Africa

he pandemic has cost nearly a million lives. It has deepened human suffering and uprooted communities, destroyed livelihoods and plunged economies into turmoil. But just as the founders of the United Nations once stood united for the greater good, so too do we stand together to confront this grave threat. In this crisis, people across the world have extended the hand of solidarity to people in other nations. From the North to the South, humanity has been galvanised into action. We have formed international partnerships to ensure there is equitable access to medical equipment and supplies. Many nations have set up extensive social support systems to protect citizens whose jobs, businesses and livelihoods have been threatened. Our response to the COVID pandemic has demonstrated the heights that can be attained when we work in the spirit of friendship and solidarity. If we are to build a common and inclusive future in the aftermath of COVID-19, it is this solidarity that must endure. In the words of Nelson Mandela: “It is human solidarity, the concern for the other, that must be at the centre of the values by which we all live.” …

In the aftermath of the pandemic

THE NEW GLOBAL DEAL It is in the spirit of this New Global Deal, that we call on the international community and our international partners to support the rollout of a comprehensive stimulus package for Africa. This will enable African countries to not only mitigate the health impacts of COVID-19 but to aid us in the immense task of rebuilding our shattered economies. To ensure that no country is left behind we reiterate our position as the African Union that economic sanctions against Zimbabwe and Sudan be lifted to allow their governments to respond adequately to the pandemic. We also call for the suspension of interest payments on Africa’s external and public debt. As the African Union we are encouraged

by the collaboration of the G20, the IMF, the World Bank and the UN towards finding solutions to debt sustainability in developing countries. This pandemic has highlighted the urgency with which we must strive to meet all the Sustainable Development Goals, but importantly Goal 1 – to end poverty in all its forms everywhere. For until we eradicate global poverty, we will always fall short of realising the vision of the founders of the United Nations. We must expand economic opportunities to all our people, but most especially to the young, to women and to vulnerable persons. We must boldly pursue avenues of redistribution and redress as a means of

advancing shared prosperity. We must deal decisively with the rot of corruption that is robbing our people of the opportunities and services that are their right. … The year 2020 will be remembered for the massive groundswell to push back the frontiers of racism under the umbrella of the #BlackLivesMatter movement. As a country that has known too well the anguish of institutionalised racism, South Africa supports the demands for swift action against racism, whether committed by individuals, companies, officials or the state. … In the words of Dr Martin Luther King Jr: “Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere.” As we mark the 25th Anniversary of the adoption of the Beijing Platform for Action, we must intensify our efforts to empower women and girls. It is the right of women and girls to be full and equal participants in the workplace, in political life and decision-making, in the economy, in obtaining an education and in society as a whole. South Africa is proud to be a member of the UN’s Generation Equality campaign and has prioritised the eradication of gender-based violence and femicide. At a continental level, we are working to finalise and adopt an AU Convention on Violence against Women during the course of this year. AU member states are engaging on measures to promote financial inclusion, preferential procurement and preferential trade agreements for women. … As we rebuild in the aftermath of this pandemic we have an opportunity to place the global economy on a low-carbon, climate resilient developmental path. We must advance the principles of the green and circular economies, not just for the sake of environmental sustainability but because of the opportunities for job creation and economic growth. … Statement to the 75th United Nations General Assembly, 22 September 2020

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

LEADERS’ VIEWS

Yoshihide Suga Prime Minister, Japan

How to overcome human security crises

he novel coronavirus disease has pulled us into an unprecedented crisis, which in turn has brought the international community back to cooperation from its tendencies towards division and isolation. … In our fight against the virus, Japan has been doing its utmost for the health and safety of the people of Japan and around the world, harnessing the wisdom of public and private sectors alike. Now we are at the stage of revitalising socio-economic activities while maintaining measures for preventing the spread of infections. Let me share my thoughts with you based on Japan’s experiences. The spread of the coronavirus is a human security crisis, posing a threat to the lives, livelihoods and dignity of people across

the globe. The guiding principle for us to overcome this crisis must be “leave no one behind”. … First, we need to safeguard lives from the novel coronavirus disease. Japan fully supports the development of therapeutics, vaccines and diagnostics, and works towards ensuring fair and equitable access for all, including those in developing countries. Japan also works with international organisations so that relevant international frameworks will be able to deliver results. We are also proposing a framework of “patent pooling”. … Second, we must prepare ourselves for future health crises. Japan is committed to expanding its efforts in developing countries to build hospitals as well as to

Joko Widodo President, Indonesia

Promoting a win-win approach

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assist strengthening health and medical systems through providing equipment and supporting human resource development. … Third, we will take measures to ensure health security in an even broader context. We will continue to work with other countries to improve the conditions of water, sanitation and hygiene, nutrition and other environmental factors. … The World Health Organization is key in our collective response to infectious diseases. Through its review and reform, I believe the WHO will be able to make even better use of necessary expertise at the right time, in the right manner. With this conviction, Japan stands ready to cooperate in the review and reform process. … Statement to the 75th United Nations General Assembly, 25 September 2020

Cooperation in tackling COVID-19 must be strengthened … in terms of the health aspects … as well as the socio-economic effects. … Vaccines will be the game-changer in the war against the pandemic. We need to work together to ensure … that all countries have equal access to a safe vaccine … with an affordable price. … In the long term … the management of resilient global health systems needs to be further improved. The resilience of the global health system … which is based on the national health resilience … will determine the future of our world. From the economic perspective … revitalisation of economic activities gradually needs to start … by tackling the limits of our global supply chain today. Revitalisation of the economy must prioritise the health of all citizens of the world. …

t a time when we ought to unite … and work together to tackle the pandemic … what we see, instead, is one of deep division … and growing rivalries. Whereas in fact … we must unite and always promote a win-win approach in building relations among states that is mutually beneficial. We all understand the negative impacts of the pandemic are tremendous … both on health … and the social economy. We are also aware that … the virus knows no boundaries across nations. … No one is safe until everyone is. … This year, Indonesia also celebrates the 75th anniversary of its independence. … The spirit of cooperation will continue to be promoted by Indonesia … the spirit which provides mutual benefits to all Statement on United Nations Day, 24 October parties … and leaves no country behind. … 2020 November November2020 2020——G20 G20SAUDI SAUDIARABIA: ARABIA:THE THERIYADH RIYADHSUMMIT SUMMIT

LEADERS’ VIEWS

Angela Merkel Chancellor, Germany … Digital sovereignty, Europe’s competitiveness and a climate-friendly innovation policy are among the priorities of Germany’s current presidency of the Council of the European Union. Germany supports the Commission’s proposal to reduce greenhouse gases by at least 55% compared to 1990 levels by the end of the decade. This is highly ambitious. However, the Green Deal is a signpost that points us in the direction of a low-carbon and therefore competitive economy. Ahead of us lies the path towards a truly comprehensive transformation that will impact climate protection, the circular economy, biodiversity, sustainable agriculture, sustainable mobility and other issues in equal measure.

Scott Morrison Prime Minister, Australia … Australia was one of only eight countries involved in drafting the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. We’re proud of that role. And today, we’re serving as a member of the United Nations Human Rights Council. We’re the first country from the Pacific region to serve on that body. Our term ends this year, and we’re pleased to have served but I’m proud that we’ve raised our voice and been heard on important issues like the rights of women and girls, the rights of Indigenous peoples and the global abolition of the death penalty. Statement to the 75th United Nations General Assembly, 25 September 2020

Speech to the European Sustainable Development Network, 13 October 2020

Justin Trudeau Prime Minister, Canada

Moon Jae-in President, Korea

The pandemic has gone from a health crisis to an unprecedented global development emergency, pushing people into poverty and creating food insecurity. Global cooperation is and will be essential to protecting people’s health, saving lives and defeating the pandemic, which is why we are taking action alongside our international partners. This includes co-leading the global Initiative on Financing for Development in the Era of COVID-19 and Beyond with Jamaica and the United Nations secretarygeneral.

Home to the headquarters of the International Vaccine Institute, Korea will provide active support to various activities geared towards developing and distributing affordable vaccines for developing countries. As concerns remain over the possibility of the second and third wave of COVID-19, Korea will actively share its experiences accumulated from responding to COVID-19 and continue to work with the international community. Statement to the 75th United Nations General Assembly, 23 September 2020

Statement on United Nations Day, 24 October 2020

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

LEADERS’ VIEWS

Emmanuel Macron President, France Right after I was elected, I made fighting terrorism my top priority. It will remain so because a number of terrorist groups have declared themselves our enemy. The enemy is a threat that is becoming reality. The territorial caliphate of Daesh has since then been destroyed, yet the jihadi terrorist ideology and networks, thriving in the breeding ground of failed states, continue to seek weaknesses in our societies, realising the existence of a continuum between defence and security.

Andrés Manuel López Obrador President, Mexico Little by little our economy is recovering; this is also complemented by the fact that we just signed an agreement with the United States and Canada, a treaty that is already in effect. This means that investment is already arriving in our country, businesses are being set up and they are creating jobs that will benefit the Mexican people. Statement to the 75th United Nations General Assembly, 22 September 2020

Speech on the Defence and Deterrence Strategy, 7 February 2020

Putin: Frederic Legrand - COMEO / Shutterstock.com, Obrador: Octavio Hoyos / Shutterstock.com

Vladimir Putin President, Russian Federation Experts are yet to fully assess the scale of the social and economic shock caused by the pandemic and all its long-term consequences. However, it is already evident that it will take a really, really long time to restore the global economy. Furthermore, even the proven anti-crisis measures will not always work. We will need new innovative solutions. The only way to elaborate such solutions is to work together, which is the most important task for both the UN and G20 states, as well as other leading inter-state organisations and integration associations that are also going through tough times due to the pandemic’s impact and need fundamentally new horizons and scope of development.

Donald Trump President, United States If the United Nations is to be an effective organisation, it must focus on the real problems of the world. This includes terrorism, the oppression of women, forced labour, drug trafficking, human and sex trafficking, religious persecution, and the ethnic cleansing of religious minorities. America will always be a leader in human rights. Statement to the 75th United Nations General Assembly, 22 September 2020

Statement to the 75th United Nations General Assembly, 22 September 2020

globalgovernanceproject.org

November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

ADVOCACY

SAUDIA

A global connector and enabler for business growth

SAUDIA – Saudi Arabia’s national flag carrier – is responding to rising demand for travel to the Middle East, revolutionising its fleet, adding new routes and bridging people and continents

audi Arabian Airlines (SAUDIA) has historically been a major driver of economic development in the Kingdom and a key enabler in connecting the country with the world. The year 2020 is a milestone year in which SAUDIA celebrates its 75-year anniversary. SAUDIA is part of the great story unfolding in the Kingdom, a story rich with culture, history, tradition and genuine Saudi hospitality. This story however is really about progress and opportunity. The main theme of the Riyadh Summit, “Realising Opportunities of the 21st

IBRAHIM KOSHY Captain Ibrahim S Koshy is the CEO of SAUDIA Air Transport Company. He started his career as an air transport pilot after his education at ERAU in the USA, where he obtained a degree in aeronautical science with an emphasis on aviation management. His education continued at Cranfield in the United Kingdom, where he focused on accident investigation and aviation safety management.

Century for All”, reflects the anticipated role SAUDIA will play in Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030. SAUDIA will be the dominant air logistics enabler to create the opportunities targeted by Vision 2030. It will transport the people who will participate in the many growth accelerator programmes taking place in Saudi Arabia, including the mega projects shaping the future of the Kingdom. MEGA PROJECTS TAKING SHAPE Mega projects such as the futuristic city of NEOM, Qiddiya entertainment city and the Red Sea tourism project, Amaala, will all contribute to the Vision 2030 targets of 400 million airport users, 100 million tourists and 35 million pilgrims annually by 2030. The construction of infrastructure to absorb these numbers is under way. Some of the world’s most exotic resorts are taking shape – race fans can look forward to attending the Formula 1 in Jeddah and the Formula E in Diriyah, while the ‘Seasons’ events are being sponsored throughout the country to promote travel and tourism. For those who want to explore the Kingdom’s rich heritage, the new E-visa programme and the international network that SAUDIA is

building to connect the Kingdom to the world will make that process seamless. A CULTURAL SHIFT SAUDIA is now pushing for a cultural shift of empowerment and sustainability. A young, educated generation now makes up the majority of our staff, providing rewarding career opportunities in aviation for men and women alike. Sustainability initiatives are also being developed to ensure we do all that we can for our planet. The 2020 G20 summit takes place while the COVID-19 pandemic still shadows the globe and challenges all economic sectors. The aviation sector is particularly hard-hit, but with these challenges there are opportunities to emerge stronger. It is a time to accelerate the implementation of our strategy to be fully aligned with the rapid progress taking place in Saudi Arabia, and to take our role as the dominant air logistics enabler for the Saudi Vision 2030. SAUDIA welcomes you onboard to experience its genuine Saudi hospitality.

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

GUEST LEADERS’ VIEWS

Post-COVID investments

iyadh will mark the 15th G20 summit since the group first met at the leaders’ level in 2008 to coordinate a strong response to the global financial crisis. Thanks to its unparalleled ability to set global agendas and influence international norms, as well as its economic and political clout, the achievements of the G20 since 2008 are remarkable. Now, as we face a crisis of even bigger proportions, the G20 needs to rise to the challenge again. We are still grappling with the devastating consequences of COVID-19, which go beyond grieving for the hundreds of thousands of lost lives and the estimated $11.5 trillion in economic damage. COVID-19 has changed – and is still changing – our lives. Yet the human and economic costs also need to be set against the options that open up for decision makers. With its disruptive power, this pandemic is accelerating both pre-existing trends and emerging changes. It is now time for us to make three key investments: in effective multilateralism, in the twin digital and energy transitions, and in people. Multilateral action is key to beat this pandemic and build a future of sustainable, inclusive and equitable growth for all. We need to invest in multilateralism that works for citizens, as a tool to solve our shared challenges: providing global public goods and managing the global commons in a fair and inclusive way. This, in turn, requires our attention across three areas. First, we need to reinforce global health governance, with a more effective World Health Organization as its central pillar. As a first, urgent step, we should aim at ensuring fair and affordable access for all to safe and effective vaccines, diagnostics and treatments for COVID-19. Second, we must defend the rules-based multilateral trading system with the World Trade Organization at its core. Now, more

Pedro Sánchez President, Spain than ever, we need free and fair trade to be an engine of economic growth and prosperity. The Riyadh Summit is an excellent opportunity to show our commitment to resolving ongoing trade tensions, to fight against protectionism and to an ambitious and wide-ranging reform of the WTO. Third, we must ensure that our response is truly global. The socio-economic impact of the pandemic on least developed nations is dramatic. This is why I hosted a high-level conference in June calling for international support to address the impact of the crisis in Latin America and the Caribbean. The G20 must redouble its efforts in supporting those in need, including through innovative financial and economic measures and through bolstering the role and capacities of the International Monetary Fund and other regional development financial institutions. These efforts should be underpinned by a stronger and more effective United Nations. The UN remains indispensable: its very existence is evidence of our capacity to overcome differences and work collaboratively. This is why, as we celebrate its 75th anniversary, we must work to make it fitter for the challenges of our times. Yet we should not let COVID-19 delay our ambitions in addressing the major structural challenges of our times: the digital and energy transitions. The recovery from this crisis will be both digital and green. The G20 must urgently invest in harnessing the potential of the fourth industrial revolution for the benefit of all, while saving the planet for future generations. The window of opportunity to address the climate emergency and protect our environment and biodiversity is closing: we cannot ignore the calls from the scientific community and our citizens. We must step up our ambition in implementing the Paris Agreement, decarbonise our economies and achieve climate neutrality in the coming decades. We need to spur the use of biological resources to replace non-renewable materials and fossil resources used in industrial production and energy generation. Likewise, we must balance innovation and competition with effective governance to mitigate the risks inherent in the

digital economy, such as the deepening of structural imbalances. We need an inclusive, human-centric digital transition, which helps close the gender and access gaps. And we need to rethink how we share the financial risks among individuals, employers and taxpayers: as the world shifts towards an ever more intangible economy, we urgently need to adapt international tax frameworks and domestic tax laws to level the playing field. Last, but not least, we need to invest in people. Rising inequality, social and political exclusion, and estrangement from political institutions create disaffection and stoke divisions. The pandemic has made this even clearer: we need to increase our efforts to ensure that all people benefit from equal opportunities. It is time for us to design the social contract of the future to counter the rhetoric of nativism, extremism and nationalism. New aims – the preservation of public goods, economic security and inclusiveness – need to take centre stage. We must invest in gender equality to bridge the career and pay gaps in the labour market and realise the full potential of all women. We must invest in inclusive, equitable and lifelong education as a tool to provide opportunities for all and to reduce inequalities. We must combine high employment with greater personal security, and reinforce our social protection systems. And we must do more to provide collective responses to phenomena such as migration and forced displacement. We must spare no efforts to achieve those goals. We can no longer afford business as usual. Spain will continue to proactively work to advance those priorities. We will do so guided by the principles enshrined in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, which remains the framework of reference to build more inclusive, resilient and sustainable economies and societies. I am convinced that we will, together, overcome this crisis and become stronger in the process. The G20 is the right forum to make the political investments that we so urgently need: we need to invest now to save ourselves enormous economic and human costs down the road. I therefore look forward to the Riyadh Summit: we must seize this opportunity to show our collective resolve, ambition and vision to shape a better future for all.

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

GUEST LEADERS’ VIEWS

His Majesty King Abdullah II ibn Al Hussein of Jordan strengths and leaving no one behind. G20 members can lead the way and set an example for better synergies across borders, to enable us all to build a better global system that improves on the foundations we have. A good place to utilise these synergies would be ensuring equal and equitable access to a COVID-19 vaccine and new therapeutics, once available. Front-line workers around the world – the doctors, nurses, paramedics, teachers, security personnel and others keeping our healthcare, educational and economic sectors running – should be among the first to receive the vaccine. Vulnerable communities, people living in poverty and densely populated areas without the luxury of social distancing, and refugees and their host communities must also be prioritised for access to vaccination and medication, to avert a catastrophic outbreak of the virus in their midst.

Dealing with a new reality, leaving no one behind

his year’s G20 Riyadh Summit convenes virtually, just like so many other major annual events held this year, as we all continue to cope with the new reality imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic. Throughout this year, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, as G20 president, has been working to bring countries together to act jointly on countering COVID-19, and ensuring that vulnerable communities are not left behind. We remain grateful for the Kingdom’s efforts, especially as it seeks to highlight the impact of the pandemic and its implications on our region, and advances its G20 presidency agenda to empower people, safeguard the planet and shape new frontiers. Almost a year into this pandemic, many of our countries are now grappling with a second wave of community transmission. It is growing ever clearer that a return to normalcy remains distant. But even if we manage to restore a semblance of normality, the profound ramifications of the pandemic on our economies, food security, healthcare sectors and societies’ well-being will continue for years beyond that. Jordan strongly believes that addressing these intersecting threats and challenges, while also beating COVID-19, demands a reimagining of our multilateral system – a re-globalisation that ensures better integration at the international, regional, trilateral and bilateral levels, while investing in each country’s globalgovernanceproject.org

THREATS TO FOOD SECURITY A major concern is food security, and the G20’s role is key as we prepare for the Riyadh Summit. More than 2 billion people do not have regular access to safe, nutritious and sufficient food, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization. Disruptions to supply chains due to COVID-19 lockdowns have added to an already growing food crisis caused by a convergence of factors: climate change, conflict, global displacement and fresh water shortages, among others. Figures from FAO reveal that nearly 690 million people are hungry, up 10 million since 2019. In this 21st century, the pandemic could add between 83 million and 132 million people to this number. Vulnerable communities must be at the top of our priorities when facilitating access to food and countering the threat of malnutrition. As host of the second highest number of refugees per capita globally, Jordan is acutely aware of the need to protect refugee communities from the threats of COVID-19 and food insecurity. It is a duty. We are working closely with United Nations agencies and international non-governmental organisations to limit the spread of the virus in refugee camps. However, protecting refugees is the responsibility of all of us. Families displaced by conflict and crises should not be left to fend for themselves. Jordan is also ready to play its part in a re-globalised world. Its strategic location, at the crossroads of Africa, Asia and Europe, sets Jordan up to serve as a facilitator of broad international action and as a regional hub for food security and crisis response. At times of crisis, it is very easy to lose ourselves in the immediate repercussions. There is no question that the direct effects of the pandemic have been tragically devastating to us all, with so many precious lives lost everywhere. But by remaining mindful of the threats that could follow, we would be able, God willing, to avert further tragedies that may be caused by the economic and social implications brought on or exacerbated by COVID-19. We look forward to the G20’s Riyadh Summit to examine global measures to deal with life after COVID-19, and to contribute effectively to making our world healthier, better integrated and more economically just. It is no longer an option. November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

ADVOCACY

OPEC Fund for International Development will also improve access to mortgages for low-income households and support certified green building. Earlier this year, we approved a $20 million public sector loan to help Senegal improve agricultural production in rural communities. The project includes the creation of 300 hectares of vegetable gardens for women and youth. And our decades-long work financing MSMEs in Egypt has resulted in many thousands of new employment opportunities. Encouraged by the success of loans in 2009 and 2015, the government of Egypt recently requested that the OPEC Fund provide a third tranche of support for the programme. A loan for $95 million was signed earlier this year that aims to create more than 30,000 MSME jobs, especially for women and young graduates. Our support for gender equality and entrepreneurship is long-standing. In 2012, for example, we helped finance Grameenphone’s Village Phone Program in Bangladesh under our private-sector facility. VPP women work as self-employed pay phone operators, providing mobile phone services in rural areas where such facilities were limited or even non-existent. By 2019, more than 83,000 villages were covered. The success of the programme has triggered its replication in many other developing countries. The lessons learned from COVID-19 call for the development community to come together to protect gains and find better ways of driving progress. The rapid global spread of the virus required governments and the international community to respond quickly to changing circumstances. We have entered a new normal where working together in smarter, more nimble ways than before is the only way to succeed. Future challenges will no doubt demand even more decisive action. The OPEC Fund has been prioritising product innovation and agile working for some time. By partnering with similarly forward-thinking actors and focusing above all on the people we aim to empower, we can overcome the current challenges and prepare better for the future.

Sustaining and driving progress in turbulent times

Yousuf Mohamed Al-Jaida, CEO

A more nimble, collaborative approach to protect vulnerable workers and gender equality is required as we collectively work towards a better future, and joining forces will help us to overcome both short- and long-term challenges

OVID-19 is disproportionately affecting women and workers in the informal economy. Unless the international community acts quickly and decisively, we risk losing many of the development gains made in recent decades and exacerbating gender inequalities in the labour market. Around 1.6 billion informal economy workers have been significantly affected by lockdown measures and/or work in the hardest hit sectors, according to the International Labor Organization. Earnings of informal workers plummeted by 60% during the first month of the pandemic, globally. Women and girls carry multiple burdens, especially during crises. Most often, they are the primary caregivers, homemakers and wage earners. During lockdowns, access to crucial health services is disrupted, reports of violence against women have increased and informal workers, most of whom are women, are particularly at risk of financial hardship. FAST-TRACK LOANS In response to COVID-19, as well as channelling emergency grants through organisations such as the World Health Organization, the OPEC Fund quickly modified its approval process to enable its concessional loans to be fast-tracked to developing countries. We continue to provide support for vulnerable workers, gender equality and other

development priorities. For example, in collaboration with the International Finance Corporation, we recently helped increase lending to women-owned micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises in Colombia. The $50 million we contributed to the funding for Banco Davivienda

DR ABDULHAMID ALKHALIFA Dr Abdulhamid Alkhalifa was elected director-general of the OPEC Fund for International Development in June 2018. He assumed his post on 1 November 2018. Prior to his appointment, Dr Alkhalifa was deputy secretary-general of the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund from 2014 to 2018, and adviser to the secretary-general from 2010 to 2014. He has also held a number of leadership positions at the World Bank Group and served the government of Saudi Arabia in various capacities. Dr Alkhalifa holds a PhD in economics from the University of Miami, Florida, and a master’s in applied economics from Southern Methodist University in Dallas, Texas.

Financing the private sector to empower rural women in Bangladesh.

 @TheOPECFund  opecfund.org

haturvedi/Shutterstock.com

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org to: Nowaczyk/Shutterstock.com

Dr Abdulhamid Alkhalifa, Director-General, OPEC Fund for International Development

Photo: Neeraz Chaturvedi/Shutterstock.com

Photo: Nowaczyk/Shutterstock.com

Financing the private sector to empower rural women in Bangladesh.

Creating MSME opportunities for women and young graduates in Egypt.

Photo: Carrastock/Shutterstock.com

Photo: Marjolein Hameleers/Shutterstock.com

Supporting agricultural production in Senegalâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s rural communities.

Improving access to finance for women-owned MSMEs in Colombia.

GUEST REGIONAL ORGANISATIONS

Abdulrahman Al Hamidy, Director-General and Chair of the Board, Arab Monetary Fund

From reaction to recovery 4%

Expected contraction of Arab economies caused by COVID-19

1.3bn

approved in new loans and withdrawals of existing loans since the start of 2020 by the AMF

231bn

in stimulus packages from the central banks and finance ministries of Arab countries by July 2020

OVID-19 has profoundly affected Arab economies, which are expected to contract by about 4% in 2020. It hit hard major domestic liquidity sources, including oil revenues, export receipts, tourism and remittances, affecting public and private deposits. The central banks and finance ministries of Arab countries acted to contain the negative economic and social effects of the pandemic, ensure sufficient liquidity and support credit to the private sector, with stimulus packages surpassing $231 billion by July 2020. The Arab Monetary Fund has developed an emergency plan to respond to the financing needs of members, working at several levels. First, it enhanced communication and consultation with membersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; authorities to assess the assistance required. Second, it mobilised its resources to respond with the maximum lending capacity. Third, it activated its Rapid Lending Procedures Framework to urgently assist. Fourth, it consolidated its

As COVID-19 swept across the globe, the Arab Monetary Fund scaled up its support to members. Now, it is providing financial assistance to help members get back on their feet and support a swift, sustained economic recovery

engagement with development partners to ensure coordinated and effective support. Since 2020 began, the AMF has approved more than $1.3 billion in new loans and withdrawals of tranches of existing loans. It is studying further requests and finalising procedures for disbursing funds in response. Recognising the importance of peer-to-peer dialogue and exchange of experiences among financial sector policymakers on the implications of COVID-19, the AMF has organised many high-level meetings on financial stability and banking supervision, financial inclusion, digital payments, fintech and digital transformation. The objectives are to strengthen a regionally consistent approach and to discuss a range of interventions, including quantitative easing, cash injections, policy rate cuts and adjustments to reserve requirements. Other policy measures aim at protecting people from mass defaults, financial

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT â&#x20AC;&#x201D; November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

institutions from drying up, and micro, small and medium-sized enterprises from financial exclusion, thereby safeguarding Arab financial systems. Two main topics have been the need to speed up the digital transformation in financial services and the importance of financial technology. SUPPORTING TRADE FINANCE The AMF is keen to support trade finance through the Arab Trade Financing Program. From January until July 2020, ATFP provided trade finance of about $668 million to national agencies, focusing on expanding exposure to sovereign national agencies to mitigate tightening liquidity conditions and secure funds to finance Arab trade. The AMF also supports Arab capital markets through investing in issuances that meet the guidelines of its investment policy. Allocations to Arab governments and Arab non-government bonds rose by more than 60% year over year to reach about 1.3 billion in special drawing rights as of 30 June 2020. AMF financial support has been crucial. Assistance has included emergency support, through automatic loans that provide rapid financing to balanceof-payment deficits, helping alleviate pressures in external financial positions and contain the negative economic and financial effects of the pandemic. Through its Structural Adjustment Facility in the public finance and the financial and banking sectors, the AMF has supported essential measures during the pandemic, including reforms on consolidating social safety nets, assisting MSMEs, and promoting fintech and e-payments. The AMF stands ready to scale up its support, as the challenges from financing needs are expected to increase. Its financial assistance can help members safely exit the recent fiscal and financial stimulus and support a swift and sustained economic recovery, while strengthening economic and financial resilience. The high-level meetings have produced

toolkits and guiding principles on several issues. The pandemic has also encouraged the AMF Training and Capacity Building Institute to set the foundation and guidelines for distance training, which is part of the AMF 2020–2025 strategy. It is expected to deliver more than 12 distance courses by the end of 2020.

ABDULRAHMAN AL HAMIDY His Excellency Dr Abdulrahman Al Hamidy has been director-general and chair of the board of the Arab Monetary Fund since 2014 and also chairs the board of the Arab Trade Financing Program. He was vice governor of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency from 2009 to 2013, where he was also deputy governor for technical affairs. He was previously director of training, research and information at the Institute of Banking, and before that taught economics at King Saud University.  amf.org.ae

Policy measures aim at protecting people from mass defaults, financial institutions from drying up, and micro, small and medium-sized enterprises from financial exclusion, thereby safeguarding Arab financial systems” globalgovernanceproject.org

As the ATFP has succeeded in reaching reasonable financing for eligible trade transactions in the public and private sectors, the significant challenge of balancing fulfilling members’ needs while maintaining stakeholders’ interests remains. During these unprecedented and turbulent times, the world is waiting for the G20 to lead the global recovery. It can do so as follows: •

Support private-sector engagement and action in fostering a gradual recovery.

•

Maintain G20-sustained support of the economic recovery in the least developed countries based on the G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative.

•

Enhance cooperation with regional financing arrangements to mobilise sufficient resources and provide the required support for a fast global recovery.

•

Improve access to opportunities for all through supporting MSMEs, leveraging digital financial inclusion, and embedding youth and women empowerment in all public policies.

•

Support the Sustainable Development Goals by developing new and innovative financing modes through socially responsible and impact investing.

•

Address the most pressing economic structural challenges, including declining productivity, through enriching labour skills, enhancing capital accumulation, and encouraging research and development.

•

Advance the reform of the international trading system to support economic growth and job creation and to avoid disrupting global value chains, thus ensuring mutual economic gains for both developed and developing countries.

•

Ensure the efficient and fast allocation of resources among economic sectors to cope with the dynamic structural transformation imposed by the virus.

November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

Saudi Customs

A new dawn for business across borders in Saudi Arabia Targeted efforts by Saudi Customs have seen the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia revolutionise its logistics sector and rapidly climb international rankings – and there’s the promise of even faster, more streamlined trade to come

Ahmed A Alhakbani, Governor, General Customs Authority 34

s Saudi Arabia works towards achieving the goals of Saudi Vision 2030, the Kingdom has made tremendous leaps in economic growth and development. The changes that have taken place within the country have occurred at an unprecedented rate, and all aim for the same objectives: a vibrant society, a thriving economy and an ambitious nation. Inspired by the roadmap to 2030, Saudi Customs has worked in tandem to meet several major milestones and drive momentum in various crucial business sectors. Expansion in sectors such as trade and logistics has contributed significantly to the rapid economic diversification evident across Saudi Arabia. Saudi Customs facilitates trade borders and has forged Hamadacross Buamim collaborative, mutually beneficial

partnerships with organisations beyond Saudi Arabia’s borders. The long-term goal of Saudi Customs is to transform the Kingdom into a globally competitive logistics hub that contributes to its prosperous economy. Situated between Asia, Europe and Africa, Saudi Arabia is well positioned to maximise gains from the trade and logistics sector. And with targeted efforts in reforms, new initiatives and an integrated strategy for digital development and transformation, the work has already borne fruit: the Kingdom has advanced 72 places in the ‘Trading Across Borders’ index. Saudi Customs’ efforts in improving efficiency and processes, value chain and digitalisation were instrumental in this achievement. STREAMLINED LOGISTICS Broadly, logistics in the country have been stripped back and streamlined. Better

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

ADVOCACY

Saudi Customs trade facilitation has been implemented to support economic growth while ensuring a fair, competitive trade environment, with clearance processes simplified and automated to cut down time and cost. For companies importing goods into Saudi Arabia, clearance time has been reduced from five days in 2017 to 17.2 hours by the end of 2019, while the number of documents required for import and export, previously 12 and nine documents, respectively, has been reduced to just two for each. Elsewhere, the introduction of bonded and re-export zones and warehouses offers benefits for foreign companies. This in turn helps to attract investment and strengthens partnerships with the private sector. Significant progress has been made in reducing the time between shipment arrival to full clearance for all shipments. Saudi Customs is currently working towards a two-hour clearance target in 2021, achieved through concentrated efforts in regulatory reform, process enhancement and automation, as well as close collaboration with the entire trade ecosystem. BIG STRIDES FORWARD Major developments include implementing the Authorized Economic Operator programme, which has 175 members, of the World Customs Organization and the TIR Convention to facilitate the movement of goods for highly compliant traders and the launch of FASAH, the unified national single window online platform for all import and export activities in the Kingdom. The system enables entities to submit the required data for import and export procedures electronically and pass it electronically to the relevant government entity, which reduces the time and cost of processing documents and fast-tracking customs clearance. Signing and activating such agreements positions the Kingdom at the forefront of the global logistics race. Then there is the launch of the second phase of the electronic system of the Customs Targeting Center. The goal is to reduce manual inspection by 20%, and we could reach up to 50%. For Saudi Customs’ partners, this means a better experience, with a balance between the objectives of facilitating trade and expediting movement of goods on one hand, and maintaining security and protecting the community and the economy on the other. We also worked to transform our internal operating model. This means that all globalgovernanceproject.org

Inspired by the roadmap to 2030, Saudi Customs has worked in tandem to drive momentum in various crucial business sectors” clearance transactions are dealt with through a centralised platform that feeds into the Customs Operations Center, which operates round the clock to ensure the expedition and refinement of the export and import clearance processes. For our customers, this has resulted in an all-round improved experience that weighs the interests of all stakeholders, which aligns with our corporate strategy of enhanced customer experience.

AHMED ABDULAZIZ ALHAKBANI His Excellency Ahmed Abdulaziz Alhakbani was appointed to the role of governor of the General Customs Authority in January 2017. Throughout his career, he worked in multinational technology companies and he has held several senior management positions within the Saudi government. He is currently the chair of the board of the King Fahd Causeway Authority, the chair of the board of Saudi Company for Exchanging Digital Information (Tabadul) and a board member of several government entities and corporates. He is also a member of the founding committee of Flyadeal and a chairman of the board of Uptown Jeddah as a representative of the Public Investment Fund.

THE COVID RESPONSE To help facilitate trade and support the private sector during the global COVID-19 pandemic, we postponed the collection of customs duties up to 30 days after clearance. The initiative seeks to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on the private sector, helping it to maintain liquidity. Looking ahead, we have set several objectives for 2021. We will fully activate the Customs Targeting Center and FASAH, which will cut clearance time to two hours for declarations submitted prior to arrival. With the full activation of the Customs Targeting Center, manual inspection will be reduced to only 10% of shipments and passengers. This will not only facilitate trade and expedite the movement of goods, but it will also help to maintain security and protect the community and the economy through smart targeting that combines lower inspection rates and higher targeting accuracy. Combined, this work is translating the vision and strategy of Saudi Customs into tangible, transformative outcomes that are cementing its standing as a pivotal entity within the Kingdom.

Twitter @SaudiCustoms  customs.gov.sa/en

November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

GUEST REGIONAL ORGANISATIONS

Confronting new challenges The IsDB has launched a series of measures and aid packages aimed at helping countries recover swiftly and strategically from the COVID-19 pandemic – and become more resilient ahead of the next big crisis

Bandar M H Hajjar, President, Islamic Development Bank Group

OVID-19 is a global crisis that forces us to confront new challenges. The pandemic affects human health as well as economies worldwide. The transcontinental nature of pandemics demands common solutions from all countries of the world. One consequence will be the hindrance of many countries’ efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. The pandemic will have unprecedented adverse effects on the overall development of members of the Islamic Development Bank Group. In response, the IsDB Group has launched a $2.3 billion aid package for its members and Muslim communities in non-member countries. Direct support for the health sector represents 68% of the total funding and is coordinated with global partners, including international financial institutions such as the World Bank and the African Development Bank, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, and United Nations agencies including the World Health Organization, UNICEF, the UN Development Programme and the World Food Programme. This package, called ‘The 3 Rs’ for ‘respond, restore and restart’, also calls for joint action to support our members, wherever they are in their stage of

recovery, to deliver economies that are resilient, sustainable and inclusive. These factors could provide a roadmap for others looking to navigate the economy now and in the long term. • Respond: Prioritising urgent, immediate needs is essential in a crisis such as that wrought by COVID-19. If countries’ health systems become overwhelmed, then greater travel and movement restrictions will adversely, and disproportionately, affect micro, small and medium-sized enterprises. In the Middle East, our Response track has already strengthened health systems by helping to procure urgent medical and non-medical supplies for infection prevention and control, including personal protective equipment for healthcare workers, as well as medical equipment such as testing kits, laboratories’ reagent, thermal camera disinfectants and vehicles needed to enhance the capacity of the targeted regions to respond to COVID-19. It has also worked with the G20’s global initiative on expanding pandemic preparedness capacity, which prioritises building resilient health systems and supporting research that is needs driven and evidence based, and adheres to the principles of affordability, equity and accessibility. • Restore: MSMEs have taken a huge financial loss already, so it is crucial that they can continue to trade and sustain their activities. Additionally, we need to ensure that enterprises do not surrender to harsh market forces and consequently adversely affect other enterprises higher or lower in their supply chains. In the past months, IsDB has provided financing for trade and MSMEs to sustain their activities in core strategic value chains. These efforts help keep businesses running while ensuring continuity regarding the necessary supplies in health and food sectors and other essential commodities.

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

Countries must act swiftly and strategically to restart and restructure their economies. Not doing so could widen existing gaps in wealth, technology and productivity gaps across borders”

• Restart: The pandemic has provided the opportunity to replace the old systems with something new, something better, through innovation. Fragile economies can be rebuilt on more sustainable principles. We can proactively invest in creating and strengthening institutions that prevent crisis. We can coordinate scientific and technological responses as well as research and development activities, steering them towards the public good. That means using funding to restart a new economy, leveraging science and technology to prevent disruptions in global value chains during such pandemics, while maintaining zero environmental footprint. We can forge public-private-philanthropicpeople-partnerships to ensure both citizens and economies benefit. In terms of the IsDB’s efforts, a targeted $10 billion aims to unlock $1 trillion worth of investments to help catalyse private investment and support both economic recovery and countercyclical spending. A SWIFT ECONOMIC RESTART Countries must act swiftly and strategically to restart and restructure their economies. Not doing so could widen existing gaps in wealth, technology and productivity across borders. The IsDB has set clear goals to catalyse private and public investment for its 57 members to fuel their economic and social development and to drive the competitiveness of key industries linked to the global market. globalgovernanceproject.org

2.3 billion

aid package for IsDB members and Muslim communities in non-member countries

Overcoming the hurdles brought by the pandemic – and recovering quickly – will not be easy. It will take new collaborations and new approaches that add value to economies. Still, countries and firms that can adapt to new shifts and new relationships will reap the most benefits in the medium and long term – and be the most resilient ahead of the next big crisis.

BANDAR M H HAJJAR His Excellency Dr Bandar M H Hajjar became president of the Islamic Development Bank Group in 2016, having served as Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Hajj from 2011 to 2016. A former professor of economics, he was a member of the Shura Council in Saudi Arabia for 12 years, representing the Council in the Arab Parliamentary Union and the Inter-Parliamentary Union for two years. He also served as chair of the Coordinating Council for Monitoring Municipal Elections as well as the National Society for Human Rights. Twitter @isdb_group  isdb.org

November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

EDITOR’S INTRODUCTION

EDITOR'S INTRODUCTION

John Kirton Director, G20 Research Group

The world is watching All eyes are on the G20 Riyadh Summit as leaders grapple with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, which is expected to dominate the agenda and themes of empowering people, safeguarding the planet and shaping new frontiers

he Riyadh Summit on 21–22 November faces immense challenges – far greater in scale, speed, spread and scope than the G20 has ever faced. G20 leaders must confront a deadly health pandemic, as COVID-19 still soars, having already infected more than 50 million and killed well over one million people. They must also confront the intensifying economic, social, ecological and security crises brought by the pandemic, with its prolonged recession, unemployment, social dislocation and personal insecurity, even as intensifying climate change and biodiversity loss reach critical thresholds and kill many more. Amid growing geopolitical competition, populism, provincialism and protectionism, the established international order and its multilateral cooperation

are severely strained, as the United Nations celebrates its 75th anniversary. The world thus holds great hope for an effective response from the historic Riyadh Summit. It is the second time the G20 presidency is held in the Middle East, by a Muslim majority country and by a G20 member beyond the component clubs of the G7, BRICS or MIKTA (Mexico, Indonesia, Korea, Turkey and Australia). It comes only 18 days after a US election, where partisan and policy divides have never been so stark. A VIRTUAL SUMMIT The now virtual Riyadh Summit is scheduled to include all G20 leaders, chaired by Saudi Arabia’s King Salman. Fellow veterans are Germany’s Angela Merkel, China’s Xi Jinping, Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Canada’s Justin Trudeau, India’s Narendra Modi (who hosts the BRICS summit in 2021 and the G20 summit in 2022) and Turkey’s Recip Tayyip Erdogan. Also experienced are Korea’s Moon Jae-in, France’s Emmanuel Macron, South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa, Indonesia’s Joko Widodo, the United States’ Donald Trump, Italy’s Giuseppe Conte (who hosts the G20 in 2021), Australia’s Scott Morrison and Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro. The newcomers are Mexico’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the United Kingdom’s Boris Johnson (who hosts the G7 in 2021), Argentina’s Alberto Fernández, Japan’s Yoshihide Suga, and the European Union’s Charles Michel and Ursula von der Leyen. They will address the Saudi host’s themes of “Empowering People, Safeguarding the Planet and Shaping New Frontiers” and the 22 priorities they contain. Yet the agenda will be dominated by the cascading COVID-19 pandemic and its economic, trade and development impacts, as was the G20’s historic Extraordinary Leaders’ Summit on 26 March 2020. The leaders produced 47 commitments then, including 22 on health, nine on macroeconomic policy, seven on trade and three on development. A mere two months later, compliance with them averaged 72%, with health at 63%, macroeconomic policy at 88% and development at 75%. Compliance by 10 October 2020 with the G20’s priority commitments from its Osaka Summit in 2019, averaged 78%, with health at 78%, macroeconomic policy at 90%, development at 91% and climate change at 89%. BREADTH OF SCOPE Momentum for Riyadh also comes from the unprecedented intensity and breadth of this year’s G20 ministerial meetings. By mid-November, the G20 had held at least 26 ministerial meetings for 12 different portfolios – finance, trade (and investment), energy,

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

Xyxyxy xyxyxy

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health, agriculture, labour, tourism, digitalisation, education, foreign affairs and the environment, and the first ever one on anti-corruption. Several met twice, and finance and health ministers met jointly. This momentum will be badly needed at Riyadh, as the COVID-19 death toll and devastation are now much greater, with still no end in sight. The prospects are that Riyadh’s leaders will do even better than in March to help the world get through the following months. On health, they will spur the swift creation of a safe, effective COVID-19 vaccine and present principles for its prompt distribution to, and affordable use by, all people. On the economy, they will support more fiscal stimulus in the US, Europe and elsewhere, seek to coordinate it better among G20 members and with their central banks, and consider how long the private sector and public will tolerate soaring deficits and debts. On finance, they will consider the risks of, and response to, potential financial crises, erupting not only among their emerging economy members but even their advanced economy ones. On development, they will extend their Debt Service Suspension Initiative for the poorest countries, and grapple with the need for substantial debt write-offs and a permanent sovereign debt relief mechanism. On digitalisation, they will promise to produce rules for the fair taxation of the exploding digital economy, and cope with the growing digital divides in jobs, education, gender equality and health that the COVID-19 lockdowns have intensified. On their greatest challenge of climate change, they will affirm the concept of a circular carbon economy and promise to plant a trillion trees, but struggle to repeat their enduring promise to phase out the fossil fuel subsidies helping heat the planet to unliveable levels. The G20 leaders at Riyadh will do whatever it takes to get the world through the following months. But to control COVID-19 and its consequences, they could well need, and could certainly use, another emergency summit early in 2021 to cope with the many mounting and erupting challenges it brings.

Amid growing geopolitical competition, populism, provincialism and protectionism, the established international order and its multilateral cooperation are severely strained”

JOHN KIRTON John Kirton is the founder and director of the G20 Research Group, G7 Research Group and the Global Health Diplomacy Program and co-director of the BRICS Research Group, all based at Trinity College at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy in the University of Toronto, where he is a professor of political science. He is author of many articles and books, including G20 Governance of a Globalized World, and co-author with Ella Kokotsis of The Global Governance of Climate Change: G7, G20 and UN Leadership. Twitter @jjkirton  www.g20.utoronto.ca

globalgovernanceproject.org

November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

PEOPLE-CENTRED HEALTH SYSTEMS

G20 performance on

health Despite strong compliance on health commitments in some years, there is room for improvement – and 2020 could be the catalyst for better performance as the G20 rallies to fight COVID-19

n the lead-up to the 2020 Riyadh Summit, the international focus has been on the global COVID-19 pandemic. Under Saudi Arabia’s presidency, G20 leaders responded with the Extraordinary G20 Leaders’ Summit on 26 March 2020, and their health ministers have met once on their own and once with the finance ministers, in addition to their originally scheduled meeting and three meetings of the Health Working Group. This is an enormous surge in G20 governance of health, a subject on the leaders’ agenda at every summit since their first in 2008. CONCLUSIONS G20 leaders produced a total of 6,744 words on health in their communiqués from 2008 to 2019. This averages 482 words (4%) per summit. They have

MEAGAN BYRD Meagan Byrd is a researcher with the G20 Research Group and chair of summit studies for the G7 Research Group based at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy in Trinity College at the University of Toronto. She was a member of the field team for the G20’s summit in Buenos Aires in 2018 and the G7’s summit in Biarritz in 2019. Her research interests include international journalism, political communications and diplomacy. Meagan holds an honours bachelor of arts in political science from the University of Toronto. Twitter @MeaganKByrd  www.g20.utoronto.ca

Meagan Byrd, G20 Research Group released 34 documents dealing with health, averaging two per summit. The 2013 St Petersburg Summit produced the highest number of such documents with five, followed by the 2016 Hangzhou Summit with four. Since 2009, G20 leaders have consistently, with one exception, produced at least 200 words per summit on health. At Washington they dedicated 118 words (3%) to health, followed by 59 words (1%) at the 2009 London Summit and 284 (3%) at the 2009 Pittsburgh Summit. The number dropped to 139 (1%) at the 2010 Toronto Summit, then jumped to 643 (4%) at the 2010 Seoul Summit. It dipped to 470 words (3%) at the 2011 Cannes Summit and 250 words (2%) at the 2012 Los Cabos Summit. The peak came at the 2013 St Petersburg Summit with 1,340 words (5%). The 2014 Brisbane Summit had 769 words (8%), followed by a drop to 481 words (3%) at the 2015 Antalya Summit and 234 words (1%) at the 2016 Hangzhou Summit. The number of words rose to 707 (2%) at the 2017 Hamburg Summit, but declined to 316 (4%) at the 2018 Buenos Aires Summit. The 2019 Osaka Summit had a spike to 934 words (14%). COMMITMENTS Although G20 leaders have discussed health since 2008, they only began making commitments on the subject in 2014. They made a total of 75 commitments on health, beginning at the 2014 Brisbane Summit with 33 (16%).

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

They made two (4%) at the 2015 Antalya Summit and three (1%) at the 2016 Hangzhou Summit. The 2017 Hamburg Summit jumped to 19 commitments (4%). The 2018 Buenos Aires Summit made only four commitments (3%). The 2019 Osaka Summit made 14 commitments (10%), including one on improving public health preparedness and response through the World Health Organization.

CAUSES AND CORRECTIONS Although there has been strong compliance in some years, there is room for improvement. Higher compliance can be achieved by making more commitments at each summit on health and decreasing the amount of words dedicated to health to focus on specific areas. The three summits with the highest compliance averaged 88%, with an average portion of 6% of all commitments made at the summit. The summits with the lowest compliance averaged 53% and had an average of 3% of all commitments made. Conversely, the highest complying summits dedicated an average 3% of words to health at the summit, and the lowest complying summits dedicated an average of 4%. This suggests that the G20 can improve compliance with its health commitments by making more of them, while addressing a narrow breadth of topics and using fewer words. Finally, it may serve the G20 well to increase the links between health and other issues such as the environment, climate change, gender or sustainable development. Such connections could help the G20 achieve higher compliance with its health commitments.

COMPLIANCE The G20 Research Group has assessed 11 health commitments for compliance and found an average of 69%. Compliance with commitments made at 2014 Brisbane averaged 72%, then declined to 60% for 2015 Antalya and 30% for 2016 Hangzhou. It spiked to 98% for 2017 Hamburg and 93% for 2018 Buenos Aires. Interim compliance on health for the 2019 Osaka Summit by May 2020 was 69%. Four health commitments made at the leaders’ extraordinary summit in March 2020 have been assessed for compliance. The interim average two months later was 63%, with the highest compliance on health system strengthening at 78% and the lowest on digital health technologies at 35%.

It may serve the G20 well to increase the links between health and other issues such as the environment, climate change, gender or sustainable development”

G20 performance on health, 2008–19 100

69%

Average compliance on assessed health commitments

Compliance (%) globalgovernanceproject.org

Conclusions (% words)

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November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

Health in the spotlight

t the heart of the G20 agenda, the Saudi G20 presidency places a strong emphasis on health, creating an ambitious track for the health work stream. This includes introducing new and unique topics, without forsaking previous commitments and focus areas endorsed by G20 members. The health agenda encompasses five areas, including one that addressed pandemic preparedness as a priority even before the COVID-19 outbreak. The pandemic has emphasised the key role of the health agenda in the G20 and was recognised in the statement by the G20 leaders following their Extraordinary Summit in March and later in the joint statement by the finance and health ministers in September 2020. Improving value in health systems is a priority linked closely to building resilient and responsive health systems that enable universal health coverage. Many health systems have yet to benefit from the best learning experiences and practical

Under the Saudi G20 presidency, health is a high priority, with new and unique topics being introduced that seek to strengthen public health systems while accelerating progress in all related areas – from R&D to digital solutions Tawfig Al Rabiah, Minister of Health, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

applications in this domain. G20 health officials discussed establishing a Global Innovation Hub in Improving Value in Health. By August 2020, the Saudi presidency, together with the G20 members, commenced work on the hub’s formation and function, and have made substantial progress. Digital health is another noteworthy priority on this year’s agenda to improve the performance and efficiency of health systems. A G20 taskforce was established to work on specific actions to enhance knowledge in specific areas of digital health. With the outbreak of the pandemic, the taskforce focused

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

PEOPLE-CENTRED HEALTH SYSTEMS

Improving value in health systems is a priority linked closely to building resilient and responsive health systems that enable universal health coverage”

TAWFIG AL RABIAH His Excellency Tawfig bin Fawzan Al Rabiah has served as minister of health for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia since May 2016. He is also president of the Saudi Health Council and chairs the boards of the Food and Drug Authority, the Saudi Commission for Health Specialties, the Saudi Red Crescent Authority and the King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Centre, among many other responsibilities. He was previously minister of commerce and industry as of 2011.  moh.gov.sa/en

its work on digital enablers used by countries to support their COVID-19 response. Patient safety is an important topic in national health systems globally and is another priority on the G20 health agenda. Accordingly, G20 health officials established the Global Patient Safety Leaders Group, with the purpose of bridging implementation gaps through system-level solutions and locally applicable innovative solutions. The fifth priority, antimicrobial resistance, became more critical and urgent on the health agenda as a consequence of the pandemic highlighting the extent of this global threat. THE EMERGENCE OF COVID-19 COVID-19 has amplified global health gaps that were already known. The G20 leaders confirmed their commitment to work collaboratively to identify and bridge these gaps with initiatives that ensure a better future for their people. A key element was the financial gap of $8 billion required to address the most urgent needs of the global COVID-19 globalgovernanceproject.org

pandemic response. G20 members stood up to this challenge during the G20 leaders’ Extraordinary Summit in March and called for immediate global cooperation by all countries, international organisations, philanthropic foundations and the private sector to close the financing gap. In response, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia pledged $500 million to relevant international organisations to support global efforts in combatting the COVID-19 pandemic and co-led, with other countries, the global pledging marathon hosted by the European Commission to finance the global emergency health and humanitarian response. The Kingdom also supported the launch of the Access to COVID-19 Tools Accelerator, designed to accelerate the development, production and equitable access to new COVID-19 diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccines. Combatting the global impact of COVID-19 dominated the discussion at the health ministerial meeting in April. G20 members shared best practices and innovative solutions to tackling the pandemic. The ministers also acknowledged our true heroes, working tirelessly to combat this outbreak. In September, the finance and health ministers held a joint meeting to discuss the gaps in pandemic preparedness, as requested by the leaders in their Extraordinary Summit. Ministers agreed to build on key findings and lessons learned and propose recommendations ahead of the G20 summit in November 2020. THE WAY FORWARD The COVID-19 pandemic is first and foremost a global health emergency. The key element in minimising the economic disruption is to bring the spread of COVID-19 under control, allowing confidence to return and economic activity to resume. The primary focus should be on strengthening public health systems while accelerating research and development in diagnostics, therapeutics, vaccines and digital health solutions to tackle future pandemics. We need to capitalise on promising global initiatives to address global health threats, such as the ACT-Accelerator. Additionally, health systems should ensure the availability of a medically trained workforce. Building global resilience has incredible value when one considers the effects of this global pandemic. Investment now can benefit us all for generations to come, and that is our goal of protecting lives, livelihoods and shaping a better world. November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

PEOPLE-CENTRED HEALTH SYSTEMS Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General, World Health Organization

Ending the pandemic requires G20 leadership

n late October, I became a grandfather. As I looked into my granddaughter Mia’s face the first time and held her tiny hand, I experienced the same wonder, joy, hope, pride and love every parent and grandparent feels. But my joy was tinged with worry about the kind of world she will grow up in. Although she knows nothing about it, the COVID-19 pandemic will shape that world. The question is – how? The pandemic is the most severe health crisis in a century, but it is much more than that: it is also a social, political, humanitarian and economic crisis. Millions of jobs have been lost, the global economy is in recession and geopolitical fissures have widened. More than 50 million cases of COVID-19 have been reported to the World Health Organization. More than 1.2 million people have lost their lives. As Europe faces an ever-escalating wave of cases, there is no telling when or how the pandemic will end. More than 200 vaccines are now in development, including almost 50 in clinical evaluation. But once we have a safe and effective vaccine, we must also use it effectively. And the best way to do that is to vaccinate some people in all countries, rather than all people in some countries. Through the Access to COVID-19 Tools Accelerator, WHO and partners are working to ensure that new diagnostics, treatments and vaccines are developed, produced and allocated fairly as global public goods, not as private commodities that become one more reason some people are left behind. The ACT Accelerator is delivering.

From making strong commitments and taking concrete action, to recasting economic models and addressing the megatrends exposed by COVID-19, there are many actions the G20 and its partners can take to recover from the pandemic and build a better world

New rapid tests are providing reliable results in less than 30 minutes, rather than hours or days, at a lower price with less sophisticated equipment. WHO and partners including the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation have purchased 120 million of these rapid tests to be made available to low- and middle-income countries. This will enable the expansion of testing, particularly in hard-to-reach areas with no laboratory facilities or not enough trained health workers to carry out molecular tests. This is a vital addition to their testing capacity, and especially important in areas of high transmission.

TEDROS ADHANOM GHEBREYESUS Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus was elected director-general of the World Health Organization in 2017. He was the first person from the WHO African Region to serve as WHO’s chief technical and administrative officer. He served as Ethiopia’s minister of foreign affairs from 2012 to 2016 and minister of health from 2005 to 2012. He was elected chair of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria Board in 2009, and previously chaired the Roll Back Malaria Partnership Board, and co-chaired the Partnership for Maternal, Newborn and Child Health Board. Twitter @DrTedros  who.int

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

Once we have a safe and effective vaccine, we must use it effectively. The best way to do that is to vaccinate some people in all countries, rather than all people in some countries”

WHO has secured supplies of dexamethasone – the only medicine shown to reduce the risk of death in patients with severe COVID-19 disease – for up to 4.5 million patients in lower-income countries. And WHO has joined forces with Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations to form the COVAX Facility, to support the development of the world’s largest portfolio of COVID-19 vaccines and ensure that once we have a safe and effective vaccine, it is allocated equitably. There are 186 countries and economies – including all but two G20 members – now participating in COVAX, including 94 high-income countries. This is a powerful statement of solidarity with the 92 low-income countries eligible to receive vaccines through advanced market commitments. This is not charity. It is the fastest way for countries to end the pandemic and catalyse the global economic recovery. THE ROLE OF THE G20 The G20 plays a key role. First, several G20 members have led by example, by effectively suppressing the virus with a comprehensive approach, using the full suite of evidence-based measures. These examples show that no matter what situation a country is in, it can be turned around. Second, G20 members including France, Germany and South Africa have been instrumental in supporting globalgovernanceproject.org

WHO to establish the ACT Accelerator. Now the world is looking to its leading economies to ensure it is fully funded. We face a financing gap of $28.5 billion and an urgent need for $4.5 billion to maintain momentum – a tiny fraction of the more than $8 trillion the world has already ploughed into economic stimulus. Finally, although the pandemic is a serious setback to the ambitious agenda of the Sustainable Development Goals, it has also shown why they are so important. G20 members are uniquely placed to lead a renewed and urgent commitment to deliver the SDGs, and their vision of a healthier, safer, fairer and greener world. A vaccine will help control the pandemic. But it will not fix the vulnerabilities at its roots. A vaccine cannot address global under-investment in essential public health functions and resilient health systems, or the urgent need for a ‘One Health’ approach that encompasses the health of humans, animals and the planet we share. There is no vaccine against poverty, hunger, inequality or misguided nationalism. Yes, this pandemic is a severe public health crisis. But it is more than that – it’s a test of character. Never in our time has there been a more important moment for bold and creative leadership that looks beyond the next election cycle to the world our children and grandchildren will inherit. The decisions we make now will echo for decades to come. The world is watching.

200

COVID-19 vaccines in development

50 vaccines currently in clinical evaluation

186 countries and economies participating in COVAX

November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

MSD

Sustaining progress in cancer care in the COVID-19 era COVID-19 affects cancer patients disproportionately, with services halted and resources constrained. But with increased cross-sector collaboration, it is possible to protect against current and future health threats and accelerate progress in optimal cancer care

OVID-19 has taken a huge toll on health systems and economies, forcing governments to make tough decisions on the allocation of increasingly constrained resources. Cancer patients have experienced major disruptions to their care – from the suspension of screening services to delays in treatment and palliation. We are just beginning to understand what COVID-19 means for cancer patients. It has been estimated that disruptions to cancer services will cause hundreds of thousands of unnecessary deaths in high-income countries. Worse outcomes are likely in lower-income settings. This threatens to reverse the remarkable progress that has been made against cancer in recent years. Through this pandemic, we have experienced the fragility of health systems firsthand. Overcoming the challenge that COVID-19 presents to cancer requires strong political will, cross-sectoral collaboration and targeted, concrete actions to Hamad Buamim develop more resilient health services.

Dina Mired, Immediate Past President, Union for International Cancer Control, Philippe Drouet, Senior Vice President, Oncology, Global Marketing and Market Access, MSD, and Rob Yates, Head of the Centre of Global Health Security, Chatham House

BUILDING POLITICAL WILL COVID-19 has unmasked failings in health systems around the world, exposing many uncomfortable truths about our ability to provide sustainable care during periods of social, economic or political instability. We seem to be approaching the pandemic as if it presents a ‘Sophie’s choice’ between providing care to either cancer or COVID-19 patients. This overlooks the fact that cancer and other non-communicable diseases make patients much more vulnerable to the ravages of coronavirus. We have a rare opportunity to address diseases comprehensively rather than targeting our efforts in siloes. Providing cancer treatment should never be positioned as a difficult choice or a luxury. Even before COVID-19, we were losing nearly 10 million people annually to cancer, a disease that will continue to touch nearly every family around the world, during and after the pandemic. We need to re-examine our investments in health, address inefficiencies in health delivery and explore innovative ways to deliver care. We can make changes that ensure no one is left behind – not the elderly or the most vulnerable – without pitting one disease against another. At the end of the Second World War, the United Kingdom and Japan made the bold decision to embrace universal health coverage, a course of action that created a strong foundation for decades of improved health outcomes. Countries face a similar choice today to ensure all patients receive affordable, quality health care. The journey can take decades but the destination is entirely justifiable, yielding improved health, countless deaths averted and greater productivity and prosperity. TOMORROW’S HEALTH NEEDS There is no shortcut to building health systems that are accessible, equitable and resilient. We must go back to basics and reinvigorate investment in fundamental health system needs. This includes taking a comprehensive look at current systems with a view to transforming them, rather than band-aiding gaps. For example, we must address shortages in our health workforce. We still have health systems operating with less than one oncologist per 5,000 patients. By improving basic health infrastructure and investing in training healthcare workers, we can improve cancer care while contributing to the broader ambition of UHC. We must also bring attention to the prevention and detection of cancers, to address disease burdens before they overwhelm our health systems.

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

ADVOCACY

Let’s remember the “best buys” in global health and the opportunity to find efficiencies by investing wisely. As the World Health Organisation has estimated, every $1 invested in NCD prevention and control in low- and middle-income countries delivers an estimated $7 return to society as a result of increased employment, productivity and longer life. If governments prioritise feasible and affordable cancer interventions – from health system strengthening to effective screening and treatment – at least 7 million lives could be saved from cancer over the next decade. In assessing the responses of countries to COVID-19, we have observed how

MSD

invested in NCD prevention and control in low- and middle-income countries delivers

return to society in increased employment, productivity and longer life

DINA MIRED HRH Princess Dina Mired is a well-known and respected global advocate for cancer control and non-communicable diseases. She has just completed her presidency at the Union International for Cancer Control – the first Arab to have been elected to such a prestigious post. Prior to that, Princess Dina established and led the King Hussein Cancer Foundation. She is currently the first patron for the International Society of Pediatric Oncology, a member of the World Health Organization Expert Technical Group for the Elimination of Cervical Cancer and honorary ambassador of Harvard Global Health Win-Win Initiative.

PHILIPPE DROUET Philippe Drouet is senior vice president and leader of Merck’s Global Oncology Marketing and Market Access organisation. In his current role, Philippe is responsible for providing commercial leadership across oncology product development teams, business development, early-stage and late-stage pipeline assets and product lifecycle management. He leads the Global Oncology business strategy and ensures the continued development and advancement of more than 200 employees.

ROB YATES Robert Yates is a political health economist specialising in universal health coverage and progressive health financing. He is executive director of the Centre for Universal Health at Chatham House. He is an Honorary Associate Professor at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and a consultant to The Elders on their UHC programme. His principal area of expertise is in the political economy of UHC, advising political leaders and governments on how to plan, finance and implement UHC reforms.

globalgovernanceproject.org

collaborative action between the private sector, civil society and global health agencies can deliver better outcomes. Reflecting on the progress made in cancer, we have also learned it takes a village to make cancer care accessible to patients and we can all benefit from our shared experiences. Organisations such as the City Cancer Challenge are pioneering new ways to deliver effective cancer control. CCAN has inspired cities around the world to develop inclusive and empowering approaches to cancer planning, bringing all stakeholders from the public and private sector together for concrete action. This has been key to CCAN’s leadership on issues such as budget allocation, treatment prioritisation and health infrastructure improvement, critical work that continues in spite of COVID-19. The pandemic also underscores the need for the private sector to continue investing in research that can help solve the greatest health threats – whether for cancer or for infectious diseases. As a result of the scientific progress we’ve made in recent decades, we are increasingly able to deliver the right treatment for the right patient at the right time, improving patient outcomes. There is no doubt that multilateral organisations and advocacy groups are also critical to knowledge sharing and mobilisation across the world. To complement these efforts, governments and payers must fast-track policy developments that support the introduction of innovation and enhance timely access to screening and treatment for all. Time determines outcomes in cancer. The way we address the challenges and opportunities faced now, amid the COVID-19 pandemic, has the potential to transform health care for the future. If we commit to ‘health for all’, we can focus attention on solving the underlying challenges that have plagued our health systems for years. Social distancing will help stop the spread of COVID-19, but social cohesion is what we urgently need to tackle barriers to universal health. If we declare we are ‘all for health’ as a united global health community, we can ensure the progress we have made against cancer is not lost.

November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

The beginning of the end – within our grasp The COVAX Facility – a unique international collaboration – is our best hope for ending the acute phase of the pandemic, and success will not just determine how quickly we end this current crisis, but will also help us prepare for the next pandemic

Seth Berkley, CEO, Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance 48

ine months into the COVID-19 pandemic, the coronavirus is still winning. This crisis continues to escalate. Governments have spent trillions of dollars on response and domestic economic stimulus, but that is not sustainable if we do not also invest in an exit plan. Thanks to unprecedented global solidarity, we now have that exit plan – the COVAX Facility.

A unique international collaboration, the COVAX Facility really is the only truly global solution to COVID-19 and our best hope for ending the acute phase of the pandemic, because it is the only way to get fast, fair and equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines. The fact that countries the world over have chosen to take the path of global cooperation and solidarity in the face of such an immediate and existential threat is a truly historic achievement. By working together through COVAX, countries are not just securing vaccines for their own populations; they are also ensuring that vaccines are available to the most vulnerable in every country, not just the wealthy few. This is the fair and right thing to do – and it is also necessary and in everyone’s best interest. Until everyone is protected from COVID-19, we are all at risk. With nine candidate vaccines already in development, eight of which are in clinical trials, and with several more under evaluation, the COVAX Facility has the largest and most diverse portfolio

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

PEOPLE-CENTRED HEALTH SYSTEMS

+180

countries involved in the COVAX Facility, representing around 90% of the global population

2bn

vaccine doses to be produced by the end of 2021 under the facility’s initial aim

5bn

needed by the end of 2021 to deliver vaccines at scale

of COVID-19 vaccines. This is important because, even though there are now more than 200 COVID-19 vaccines in development, most of them are likely to fail. A GLOBAL INSURANCE POLICY Historically, vaccines at the preclinical stage have less than a 10% chance of succeeding. Those that make it to clinical trials have about a 20% chance. As such, COVAX is a global insurance policy, guaranteeing countries with bilateral deals vaccine doses even if those deals fail and throwing a lifeline to the majority of countries that would otherwise have limited or no access at all to COVID-19 vaccines. With more than 180 countries involved, representing around 90% of the global population, the initial aim of the COVAX Facility is to produce two billion doses by the end of 2021, enough to protect high-risk and vulnerable people as well as front-line healthcare workers. globalgovernanceproject.org

A unique international collaboration, the COVAX Facility really is the only truly global solution to COVID-19 and our best hope for ending the acute phase of the pandemic” To do this COVAX – under the stewardship of Gavi, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations and the World Health Organization – needs $1.6 billion immediately to complete research and development and to enable the COVAX Facility to ensure manufacturing is in place and early vaccine doses can be procured. And through the Gavi COVAX Advanced Market Commitment, we need to secure additional funding – at least another $5 billion by the end of 2021 – to ensure that the world’s poorest countries get equitable access and are ready to deliver vaccines at scale when the moment comes. Success will not just determine how quickly we end this current crisis, but will also help us prepare for the next pandemic. Because there will be a next one. The emergence of novel viruses of pandemic potential is an evolutionary certainty. But with the COVAX Facility – the biggest multilateral effort since the Paris climate agreement – the beginning of the end of this pandemic is within our grasp. We need to act now to finish the job.

SETH BERKLEY A medical doctor and epidemiologist, Seth Berkley joined Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, as CEO in 2011. Previously, he founded the International AIDS Vaccine Initiative in 1996 and served as president and CEO for 15 years. He was an officer of the Health Sciences Division at the Rockefeller Foundation, and has worked for the Center for Infectious Diseases of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Massachusetts Department of Public Health, and the Carter Center, where he was assigned as an epidemiologist at the Ministry of Health in Uganda. Twitter @GaviSeth ‫ ‏ ‏‬ gavi.org November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

PEOPLE-CENTRED HEALTH SYSTEMS

Health is wealth The COVID-19 crisis has reminded us that our economies depend on our health, and our health depends on how we work together. With the future of billions determined by decisions the G20 leaders take now, we cannot afford the costs of inaction

Winnie Byanyima, Executive Director, UNAIDS

COVID-19 is rapidly exploiting inequalities and the frailties of systems that could have protected societies. It reminds us of the lessons from AIDS: the world has not invested or organised itself to enable a robust response to epidemics. Controlling the virus and recovering from COVID-19 will depend on international cooperation. Three urgent actions stand out. THREE URGENT ACTIONS First, G20 leaders must ensure that the COVID-19 vaccine reaches everyone, free of charge at point of use, as set out in the popular call for a People’s Vaccine. G20 members need to use their leverage to demand that what is made possible with public money is shared in ways that maximise the public good. This can be achieved by sharing all knowledge, technologies and intellectual property through the World Health Organization’s COVID-19 Technology Access Pool. Only mass simultaneous production using all possible manufacturing capacities across the world can ensure the levels of production needed; no monopoly producer can match that scale, however

hen the COVID-19 crisis hit, many governments dithered, or made it worse through denial, hiding information and using punitive measures in desperate efforts to stop its spread. Later, even after scientists identified effective treatments, monopolistic approaches to intellectual property held down production and left millions of people out. It took far too long for leaders to understand that our ‘hard’ economy depends on our ‘soft’ health, that the most important competition is with the virus, not each other, and that health care is an investment, not an expense. A broken global system marked by a lack of knowledge sharing, adequate public health financing and global solidarity cost millions of lives. That is what happened with AIDS; we must not let it happen again with COVID-19. With AIDS, it was not until this century began that drug production was massively increased and prices reduced, public investment and aid for treatment and prevention shot up, and life expectancies returned to former levels. This shift was prompted partly by the moral case, emphasised by dramatic images of unnecessary suffering and partly by political pressure – but it was also driven by recognition of the huge economic cost of allowing a pandemic to spread. The impact of AIDS on productivity contributed to Africa’s lost decade. AIDS showed too that borders are insecure barriers against pandemics, and devastation left unaddressed anywhere threatens devastation everywhere.

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

‘generous’ its donations or deals of doses, while controlling the intellectual property and know-how. All G20 members need to support global initiatives to ensure equitable access to treatments and vaccines, such as COVAX and the WHO’s Equitable Access Framework. The economic damage across all industries from the pandemic will far exceed any gain to a tiny few from a vaccine monopoly. Vaccine nationalism is ultimately bad for every country. Second, as the battle against COVID-19 will be won or lost on the front lines of health services, G20 leaders must lead by example by strengthening free public health care, available to everyone as a right. Now is the time to remove all financial barriers and step up public investment to ensure universal health coverage that includes publicly funded community delivered services. Strong economies are not undermined by strong public services; they are underpinned by them. A higher contribution from the wealthiest individuals and businesses through taxation is a reasonable and affordable way to protect everybody

As the battle against COVID-19 will be won or lost on the front lines of health services, G20 leaders must lead by example by strengthening free public health care, available to everyone as a right”

WINNIE BYANYIMA Winnie Byanyima assumed the role of executive director of UNAIDS in November 2019. She had been executive director of Oxfam International since 2013. Prior to that, she served for seven years as the director of gender and development at the United Nations Development Programme. Ms Byanyima began her career as a champion of marginalised communities and women 30 years ago as a member of parliament in the National Assembly of Uganda. In 2004, she became the director of women and development at the African Union Commission. Twitter @Winnie_Byanyima  unaids.org globalgovernanceproject.org

from health crises, and to protect businesses from the economic havoc that health crises wreak. Third, G20 leaders must help give developing countries the fiscal space to invest in health, education and social protection, as former global leaders highlighted in their letter to the G20. There is an urgent need to deepen action on debt. The Jubilee Debt Campaign shows that the debt payments of developing countries are at their highest levels since 2001, with many spending more on debt than on health, education and social protection combined. G20 leaders must build on the Debt Service Suspension Initiative with a legally binding agreement that encompasses all low- and middle-income countries and all lender categories, including private and multilateral creditors as well as governments, and avoids any payments through the end of 2022. G20 leaders must also support the issuance of new special drawing rights by the International Monetary Fund to boost countries’ spending power, as was successfully done after the 2008 crisis. G20 members must confirm they will not cut international aid but will instead increase it, as none are safe until all are safe. The G20 must also act forcefully to close tax loopholes and havens to strengthen countries’ domestic revenue collection and sustainability. Health is wealth. If our institutions are not reinforced immediately, we are destined to repeat our AIDS history, including preventable deaths, social and political instability, and huge lost economic opportunity. If leaders invest in resilient health systems now, we can beat COVID-19, finish the fight against AIDS, prevent and treat other illnesses, and prepare for future epidemics. We do eventually learn our lessons and do what is needed. The question is how fast. The costs of inaction on AIDS exceeded the costs of action. We cannot afford a repeat. The COVID-19 crisis, awful as it is, is a oncein-a-lifetime opportunity to tackle the structural inequalities that make our societies and economies so vulnerable. The actions that G20 leaders take this year will determine the world’s recovery – the future of billions of people is being written now; so, too, are leaders’ legacies. November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

PEOPLE-CENTRED HEALTH SYSTEMS

The call to ‘build back better’ lacks ambition. Transformation is desperately needed to ‘pandemic proof’ the multilateral system – and the G20 must support this

G20 pandemic politics in a global risk society

he interconnectedness of global risks is regularly brought to the attention of decision makers, as challenges demand collective action but fractures within the global community grow. Now with COVID-19 the multilateral system is experiencing political failures, the most alarming being the inability to deal with extreme social inequalities locally, nationally or globally and to address the reckless growth of oligarchic wealth. The pandemic will likely push 115 million more people into extreme poverty in 2020, with the total reaching 150 million by 2021. While 40 million Americans filed for unemployment during the pandemic, billionaires’ net worth increased by half a trillion dollars. Without the pandemic, global poverty was expected to drop to 7.9% in 2020, creating optimism for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals.

Ilona Kickbusch, Co-Chair, UHC2030, and Founding Director, Global Health Centre

LESSONS FROM THE PANDEMIC The G20 can take four lessons from the pandemic. First, understand and respond with purpose to the unambiguous relationship among risk, politics and power: Who defines the risks? Who takes the political

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

Because the risk of catastrophe haunts the poor, the G20 must get serious about addressing global inequality”

decisions? Who suffers the consequences? Doing so reveals the interface between science and politics, the role of democratic processes in times of emergency rule, and the fundamental disparities within a society or globally. Pandemics are always political: viruses discriminate by feeding off the political, economic and social flaws in our societies and so take on the features of those societies. That is why COVID-19’s effects are different in the United Kingdom and Uruguay, but similar in populist and divisive societies – which have high death rates and inequalities and disregard scientific evidence. Because the risk of catastrophe haunts the poor, the G20 must get serious about addressing global inequality. Second, the many actors – nation-states, business, politicians, science, media and the public at large – must recognise that a pandemic never exists in isolation. It is but one component of a larger pattern of risk. We live in the Anthropocene era, defined by the rise of humans’ unprecedented impact on the planet and the accumulation of ecological, pandemic, financial, social, military, terrorist, biochemical and informational risks, all interconnected and feeding off one another. The G20 must adapt its deliberations to this age of intertwined globalised threats. Nearly a year into the pandemic, the logic, power structure and politics of a global risk society are emerging at all levels of political decision making. We speculate which political response will carry the day: the new geopolitical divide combined with new nationalisms and regionalisms or the commitment to globalgovernanceproject.org

collective action and common goods. The test will be the equitable and fair access to a COVID-19 vaccine. So, third, the G20 must discuss how to define and finance common goods. It has not yet stepped up to support ventures such as COVAX and enable the ambitious goal to distribute 2 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines before the end of 2021. Instead, a small group of rich countries representing 13% of the world’s population has purchased more than half the future supply of vaccines. India and South Africa have proposed that the World Trade Organization allow countries to suspend the protection of some intellectual property rights to preventing, containing and treating the virus. Fourth, the coronavirus was not an unannounced natural disaster. It has exposed the lack of preparedness and the hubris and invincibility of many rich countries. It has also made clear that we need a new, reliable, open-source pandemic alert system, available to all countries. Biosecurity threats will increase, and classic national intelligence services need to adapt because no one is safe unless all are safe. A NEW FRAME OF MIND The call to ‘build back better’ lacks ambition. We must transform. The political focus must now be on ‘pandemic proofing’ the multilateral system so it does not implode if some members spiral out of control and it can ensure collective action and global solidarity through providing common goods, such as a vaccine. The Global Preparedness Monitoring Board has called for such a framework and a global conference in 2021 to adopt it. The G20 should support this. Leadership lies in cooperation. Alongside fighting the pandemic, we must protect multilateralism at the global level and the democratic model at the national level. We can only thrive if we protect each other against existential risks. Preparedness, collective action and solidarity are our best bet. For pandemics as well as the other incalculable risks our way of living has generated, we must develop a new frame of mind, being responsible for one another and for the planet on which we live. Our societies, as Mariana Mazzucato says, must share both the risks and rewards of wealth, value creation and economic growth so all citizens benefit.

40m

Americans filed for unemployment during COVID-19

0.5

$ trillion

boost to billionaires’ net worth during the pandemic

ILONA KICKBUSCH Ilona Kickbusch is the co-chair of UHC2030 and founding director at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva, Switzerland. She served on a panel of independent experts to assess the World Health Organization’s response in the Ebola outbreak and is a member of the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board. She previously had a distinguished career with WHO and Yale University, and has published widely on global health governance and global health diplomacy. Twitter @IlonaKickbusch  ilonakickbusch.com

November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

OPPORTUNITY IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

G20 performance on

macroeconomic policy

Over the years, the G20 has grown increasingly significant for global economic governance – and specific measures are available that can help sustain momentum

n the wake of COVID-19, the G20 will be a key force in stabilising the economic fallout and catalysing a post-crisis recovery. Since its inception at the leaders’ level in 2008, the G20 has become an increasingly significant summit for global economic governance. The G20’s strong performance on macroeconomic growth can be attributed to its strong deliberation, decision making and delivery on its commitments. The binding level of a commitment as well as various accountability measures appear to contribute to its high compliance. These measures should be used for the G20 Riyadh Summit in November. CONCLUSIONS Since 2008, the G20 has governed consistently on macroeconomic growth. At the 2008 Washington Summit, the G20 dedicated 651 words (18% of its communiqué) to macroeconomic policy. This rose to 1,700 words (28%) at London in April 2009, 2,800 (30%) at Pittsburgh

JANE FILIPIUK Jane Filipiuk held the positions of compliance analyst, lead analyst and compliance director, specialising in trade and macroeconomic policy with the G20 Research Group. She has worked at the World Trade Organization and the National Bank of Canada, and is currently working at AlphaSights in London as an associate covering their private equity clients. Twitter @JaneFilipiuk  www.g20.utoronto.ca

Jane Filipiuk, G20 Research Group in September 2009, 3,700 (34%) at Toronto in June 2010, and then to 5,900 (38%) at Seoul in November 2010. The number of words declined slightly at Cannes in 2011 and Los Cabos in 2012. It then surged to a peak of 12,000 words (42%) at St Petersburg in 2013, where macroeconomic policy appeared in all 11 outcome documents. More recent summits saw a slight decline to around 8,000 words (23%) at Hamburg in 2017 and 2,500 words (29%) at Buenos Aires in 2018. The number dropped to the lowest ever at the 2019 Osaka Summit with 673 words (10%). Still, with the exception of Osaka, macroeconomic policy has always taken at least 20% of the total conclusions in outcome documents. COMMITMENTS Macroeconomic policy ranks first among all the subjects that G20 leaders make commitments on. Overall, decision making has been strong, although it has declined in recent years. In total, the G20 has made 476 macroeconomic policy commitments, accounting for 17% of the total of 2,668 commitments made at all 14 G20 summits. In 2008, there were six (6%) macroeconomic policy commitments, rising to peak at 91 (32%) in 2011 at Cannes, then declining gradually to nine (6%) at the 2019 Osaka Summit. COMPLIANCE The G20 Research Group has assessed 28 commitments on macroeconomic policy for G20 members’ compliance. Although

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

there were a few plunges, compliance was strong overall at 80%. It averaged 88% for commitments made at the 2008 Washington Summit, dropping to 68% for London in 2009. It climbed back to 85% and higher for Pittsburgh 2009, Toronto 2010 and Seoul 2010. Compliance dropped to 73% for Cannes 2011. But this rose to 88% for Los Cabos 2012 and 80% for St Petersburg 2013. It dropped again to 70% for Brisbane 2014, climbed to 85% for Antalya 2015, dropped to 69% for Hangzhou 2016 and then rose to a very strong 90% for Hamburg in 2017. It remained high at 85% for Buenos Aires 2018. Interim compliance from Osaka in 2019 had higher compliance of 89%. CAUSES The causes of this compliance include the number of same-subject commitments made at a summit, the politically binding level of the commitments and the presence of a multi-year timeline. First, making fewer commitments on macroeconomic policy correlates with higher compliance on them. The seven summits with the highest number of macroeconomic policy commitments averaged compliance of 78%. The seven summits with the lowest number of

G20 leaders should increase the specificity of their commitments by including either a multi-year or one-year timetable”

476%

macroeconomic policy commitments made at G20 summits, accounting for 17% of total commitments made

commitments averaged 83%. Second, strong politically binding language correlates with higher compliance. The three assessed commitments that used weaker language, such as ‘support’ or ‘should’, averaged compliance of 77%. The 25 commitments that used higher binding language, such as ‘commit’ or ‘insist on’, averaged 80%. Third, when the commitment contains either a one-year or multi-year timeline, compliance is higher. The two assessed commitments containing a multi-year timetable averaged 92% compliance, compared to 79% for those without this catalyst. The two assessed commitments containing a one-year timetable averaged 91% compliance, compared to 79% for those without. CORRECTIONS To improve its compliance the G20 should make fewer macroeconomic policy commitments and use politically binding language in them. Moreover, G20 leaders should increase the specificity of their commitments by including either a multi-year or one-year timetable. Together, these accountability measures can improve the G20’s performance in delivering its macroeconomic policy commitments.

G20 performance on macroeconomic policy, 2008–19 100

Compliance (%) globalgovernanceproject.org

Conclusions (% words)

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Commitments (%)

November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

OPPORTUNITY IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

A united front against COVID-19 Mohammed Al-Jadaan, Minister of Finance, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia 56

The G20 must continue to act decisively on two fronts: sustaining and strengthening the policy response to the pandemic, and laying the foundations for a better future â&#x20AC;&#x201C; which can only be achieved with a results-oriented, forward-looking, sustainable perspective

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT â&#x20AC;&#x201D; November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

Supporting the most vulnerable countries has been a key priority of the G20” The G20 has undertaken swift, wide-ranging and substantial action, including through the implementation of unparalleled fiscal, monetary and financial stability actions, while ensuring that international financial institutions and relevant international organisations can provide critical support to emerging, developing and low-income countries. In April 2020, G20 finance ministers and central bank governors endorsed Supporting the Global Economy through the COVID-19 Pandemic. This action plan sets out key principles and our commitments to drive international economic cooperation as we work towards a robust and sustained global economic recovery. G20 members committed to making the action plan a living document, to respond promptly to the evolving health and economic situation.

eflecting on the past year since Saudi Arabia assumed the G20 presidency, I can say it has undoubtedly been a challenging time for everyone around the world: individuals, families, businesses and, not least, governments. The speed, severity and spread with which COVID-19 shocked the world and the global economy are unlike anything we have experienced. The G20 had to adjust quickly to address the health, economic and social effects of the pandemic. As it began to unfold, overcoming this multifaceted challenge became the G20’s urgent and collective priority. On 26 March 2020, the Saudi G20 presidency convened globalgovernanceproject.org

the Extraordinary G20 Leaders’ Summit to advance a coordinated response. Since the COVID-19 crisis is first and foremost a global health emergency, the G20 has pledged more than $21 billion to bridge the short-term financing gap in global health. The G20 also supported the launch of the Access to COVID-19 Tools Accelerator Initiative as a landmark of timely global collaboration for the accelerated research, development, manufacturing and distribution of diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccines, with the aim of ensuring equitable and affordable access for all – key to overcoming the pandemic and supporting global economic recovery.

LARGEST SUPPORT PACKAGE ON RECORD G20 members thus injected more than $11 trillion into the global economy, to help minimise the economic and social damage from the pandemic, restore global economic growth, maintain market stability and strengthen resilience, including by protecting jobs and household incomes. This is by far the largest support package on record. It has lessened the economic jolt and helped prevent growth from worsening. Supporting the most vulnerable countries has also been a key priority of the G20. The G20 launched its historic Debt Service Suspension Initiative, allowing 73 eligible countries to defer an estimated $14 billion owed to bilateral creditors and enabling them to strengthen their fight against the pandemic and its impacts. In October 2020, G20 finance ministers and central bank governors extended the DSSI by six months to further support the poorest countries. The G20 left no stone unturned in engaging private creditors in the debt freeze. It is time that private creditors join the DSSI.

November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

OPPORTUNITY IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

21bn

pledged by the G20 to bridge short-term financing gap in global health

230bn

provided by multilateral development banks to emerging, developing and low-income countries for pandemic response measures

Given the scale of the pandemic, the significant debt vulnerabilities and the deteriorating outlook in many low-income countries, G20 finance ministers and central bank governors agreed on a coordinated approach in the Common Framework for Debt Treatments beyond the DSSI on a case-by-case basis. Our presidency has consistently focused on ensuring that solidarity and inclusiveness are central to the response. The G20 has worked with international financial institutions to implement a strong, swift financial response for countries in need. The International Monetary Fund deployed a comprehensive support package with rapid and enhanced emergency financing, with 81 countries receiving financial assistance totalling $101 billion since March 2020. The G20 has also called on multilateral development banks to further support

MOHAMMED AL-JADAAN His Excellency Mohammed Al-Jadaan is the minister of finance and acting minister of economy and planning for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. He also chairs the board of directors of the General Authority of Zakat and Tax, the Fiscal Balance Program Committee, the Financial Stability Committee and the Board of the General Authority of Customs. He is a member of the board of governors of both the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. î&#x20AC;ˇ mof.gov.sa/en

11trn

injected into the global economy by the G20 to help minimise the economic and social damage from the pandemic

emerging, developing and low-income countries. To this end, the MDBs committed to provide $230 billion to support their response to the pandemic, including $75 billion for DSSI-eligible countries from April to December 2020 alone. Now, as we gradually transition from emergency response to recovery, the G20 has started to design a trajectory of growth truly in line with its long-standing objective of achieving strong, sustainable, balanced and inclusive growth. G20 finance ministers and central bank governors endorsed updates to the action plan at their October 2020 meeting. As we prepare for the G20 Riyadh Summit in November 2020, it is critical that the G20 continues to act decisively on two fronts: first, sustaining and strengthening the policy response until a long-lasting and sustainable recovery is secured, and second, laying the foundations for a better future, including by helping the world emerge from the pandemic stronger and more resilient against future shocks. This cannot be achieved without focusing relentlessly on results-oriented, forward-looking and sustainable perspectives.

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT â&#x20AC;&#x201D; November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

INVESTMENTS IN INCLUSIVE ECONOMIC GROWTH ADVOCACY

Banque Saudi Fransi

Funding development Economic growth and development rely on a quality infrastructure base, and Banque Saudi Fransi is taking a central role in supporting the Kingdom of Saudi Arabiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s work in this area the importance sustainability plays in infrastructure projects going forwards. We then looked at the challenges associated with financing sustainable infrastructure projects and we were able to identify three main challenges. Private sector investment is hampered by a lack of robust pipelines with investment-ready projects, higher investment cost requirements and fragmented sustainability risk-assessment frameworks.

Interview with Rayan Fayez, Managing Director and CEO, Banque Saudi Fransi What are the major challenges hampering the growth of investments in infrastructure projects? As you may be aware, the B20 Saudi Arabia through the Finance and Infrastructure Taskforce has focused on this topic as part of the work it has done this past year. We singled out sustainable infrastructure as the key area of focus and not all infrastructure. It is important to recognise globalgovernanceproject.org

How is the Business 20 Finance and Infrastructure Taskforce working to overcome these challenges, including through the recommendations it has produced for the G20 leaders for their Riyadh Summit? With regard to supporting sustainable infrastructure, our recommendation is for the G20 to encourage the increase of private financing in sustainable infrastructure by creating more investment-ready projects, mitigating the risk of higher costs for sustainable projects and fostering a collaborative environment for sustainable risk assessments. In addition, we had multiple policy recommendations around the three other priority themes of our task force, namely: promoting sustainable finance that incorporates ESG factors, accelerating

technology and data-driven innovation in the financial sector and increasing the contribution of the financial sector to encourage economic growth and mitigate systemic risks. How is Banque Saudi Fransi contributing in its own work as a major infrastructure financing institution? As one of the leading corporate banks in the Kingdom, we are proud to have invested heavily in our structured and project finance capabilities. Over the years we have pioneered and led the way with new products and structures in this field. This has positioned us well to capture the upcoming opportunities in infrastructure finance, as well as financing the major giga projects in the Kingdom as part of Vision 2030. There will soon be an announcement of our role in various multi-billion riyal projects. These are all exciting projects that are well supported by a huge market opportunity, a well capitalised shareholder base and strong private sector participation.

November 2020 â&#x20AC;&#x201D; G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

OPPORTUNITY IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY Angel Gurría, Secretary-General, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

T Bold action to build back better From making strong commitments and taking concrete action, to recasting economic models and addressing the megatrends exposed by COVID-19, there are many actions the G20 and its partners can take to recover from the pandemic and build a better world 60

he COVID-19 pandemic has turned from a public health crisis with no parallel in living memory into the deepest peacetime recession in a century. Global output in the second quarter of 2020 was more than 10% lower than at the end of 2019. Global trade declined by over 15% in the first half of 2020. Between December 2019 and April 2020 the steep fall in the number of people working was 14 times the total decline from peak to trough during the global financial crisis a decade ago. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development projects that global gross domestic product will decline by 4.5% this year – leaving lasting, asymmetric scars, particularly on already vulnerable groups, such as the low-skilled, youth, migrants, women and those in non-standard and informal jobs. Developing and least developed countries are experiencing devastating compounded effects on supply and demand, falling international trade and plunging commodity prices. Many countries, from least developed, to low- and middle-income countries, are struggling to manage their debt repayments, risking default. In 2020, external private finance inflows to developing economies could drop by $700 billion and remittances will likely fall by well over $100 billion. By 2021, COVID-19 could push 150 million people into extreme poverty, reversing decades of progress. WHATEVER IT TAKES Born at the leaders’ level in 2008 to respond to the global financial crisis and the premier forum for global economic governance, the G20 is again demonstrating its capacity to address systemic shocks. Under Saudi Arabia’s presidency, at the Extraordinary Virtual Summit on 26 March G20 leaders pledged a ‘whatever it takes’ approach, putting the crisis at the core of their priorities and announcing fiscal stimulus packages exceeding $5 trillion to “counteract the social, economic, and financial impacts of the pandemic”. Since then, G20 governments’ fiscal stimulus has grown to about $12 trillion. Achieving consensus during a crisis is not easy. However, the G20 has agreed several important outcomes to steady the global economy. These include the G20 Action Plan on COVID-19, agreed by

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors, which helped preserve the liquidity and stability of the global financial system and provided lifelines to countless workers and businesses. It launched the Debt Service Suspension Initiative, which grants a debt-service standstill to the poorest countries to help them concentrate on fighting the COVID-19 pandemic. The G20 agreed to refrain from imposing unnecessary trade barriers, with about 70% of COVID-19–related trade measures implemented by G20 countries being trade facilitating, and to improve conditions for digitalising business models and promote the enhanced resilience of G20 economies. G20 members and others have also pledged more than $21 billion for global health and the response to the pandemic. However, international coordination, including within the G20, could have been swifter and more effective. More progress is needed on global health, particularly on pandemic preparedness, vaccines and treatments. In trade, despite commitments to keep emergency trade restrictions “focused, proportional, transparent and temporary”, the pandemic has exacerbated pre-existing trade disruptions and tensions and led to the disorderly implementation of export restrictions. A standstill on protectionist measures would have been, as in 2008, a very positive signal to the business community. It was disappointing that G20 members could not do it this time. MESSAGE OF UNITY As leaders convene in November, they must send a powerful message of unity, solidarity and cooperation, and launch collective, bold actions to build back better. First, strong commitments and concrete action are needed to strengthen pandemic preparedness and ensure that global public goods, such as vaccines and treatments, are based on rigorous scientific criteria and distributed according to countries’ needs, including the least developed countries. Second, economic models should be recast to foster resilience. G20 leaders need to keep global value chains open according to the rules of the international trading system, with a reformed World Trade Organization at its centre. The G20 should also emphasise actions that enhance the resilience of our societies, reduce people’s vulnerability and buck the trend of rising inequality: this requires empowering people, enhancing access to opportunities and training, and widening economic participation, including by reducing gender globalgovernanceproject.org

By 2021, COVID-19 could push 150 million people into extreme poverty, reversing decades of progress”

ANGEL GURRÍA Angel Gurría has been secretary-general of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development since 2006, following a distinguished career in public service in Mexico, including positions as minister of foreign affairs and minister of finance and public credit in the 1990s. He has participated in various international not-for-profit bodies, including the Population Council and the Center for Global Development. He chaired the International Task Force on Financing Water for All and is a member of the United Nations Secretary-General’s Advisory Board for Water and Sanitation and the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Water Security. Twitter @OECD  oecd.org

10% 15% 4.5%

decline in global output in Q2 of 2020 compared with the end of 2019

decline in global trade in the first half of 2020

predicted drop in global GDP this year

inequality. Extending social protection to all, especially the most vulnerable, is critical for recovering and mitigating the effects of future shocks. Third, the global community needs to address the megatrends exposed and even hastened by this crisis, such as digitalisation. Global consensus-based solutions are needed to uphold fair competition and taxation in the digital economy. Leaders must also ensure that access to technology and its benefits is inclusive so digitalisation drives growth with people’s well-being at its centre. Finally, the pandemic has exposed the interconnections among climate change, biodiversity and human health. The massive stimulus packages and investment plans designed to drive the recovery should accelerate the transition towards a low-carbon economy and protect and nurture biodiversity and ecosystems conservation. The common thread is that building back better can only be achieved through stronger multilateral dialogue and international cooperation, whether on trade, taxation, climate change, pandemics or achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. As we look ahead to the Italian and Indian G20 presidencies, the OECD will continue to support the G20 every step of the way.

November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

OPPORTUNITY IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

Interview with Larry Summers, Charles W Eliot University Professor and President Emeritus at Harvard University

Finding unanimity on substantial change The world is at a turning point in history, when global cooperation is at risk of diminishing and the idea of a global community could be lost – that is, unless consensus for the long term is found

What major economic challenges are facing the global economy due to the COVID-19 pandemic? We are in as perilous a situation as at any time in my memory. But the election of Joe Biden as US president, coupled with news of Pfizer’s positive vaccine efficacy, brings renewed hope for the situation in the United States and around the world. The recovery in the US has been a bit more rapid than expected, and the global spread of COVID-19 has been a bit less virulent than I would have expected three months ago. But the risks of aftershocks, second waves and double dips should be paramount in the minds of the leaders at the G20, as many face a second wave of lockdowns and curfews. We do not know for sure we have passed any peak on COVID-19. As patience frays, risks increase. Many employers who held onto workers because they believed this would be a short-term problem will likely capitulate soon and engage in substantial layoffs. There has been a perhaps necessary, but overdone, ramping back of stimulus efforts. Financial problems mount as households, companies and governments draw down their cash reserves, and any buoyancy in stock markets, however positive, is a risk factor given that markets 62

can change on a dime. Getting ahead of possible future problems needs to be a central priority for the G20. How well is the response matching the need? The conspicuous and unfortunate feature of the policy response to the COVID-19 crisis has been that national boldness and ambition have been entirely unmatched by global imagination. Whereas fiscal and monetary policies are in uncharted territory for the US, the European Union and Japan, the global policy response is tepid, timid and timorous. We have seen almost nothing meaningful in terms of support to keep emerging markets emerging. In part that is a result of nationalist preoccupations. But responsibility for global cooperation inevitably sits with the US and to date it has abdicated that responsibility. I am hopeful for change. The US stands between the world and the substantial expansion of special drawing rights. The US stands between the world and the mobilisation of gold. The US stands between the world and the energising of the multilateral development banks. And the US stands between the world and substantial funding for global

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

Markets can change on a dime. Getting ahead of possible future problems needs to be a central priority for the G20” health. There is no reason – moral, financial or political – why funding for COVID-19 should come out of funding otherwise available for malaria, AIDS and tuberculosis. The case for that funding is as urgent as it ever has been. So the world needs to find the will to respond. What do you think about the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on climate change and the World Health Organization? I am not so dewy eyed or enthusiastic about the WHO or the Paris Agreement in terms of their efficacy, effectiveness and design. But abandonment has been the wrong way to bring about necessary improvement. I anticipate renewed commitments with a new US administration. Without the US voice in these forums and organisations, they will likely become even less effective in achieving US objectives. The right course for the US regarding the United Nations is the kind pursued by the Clinton administration in its last year, working with Congress. That administration had no cheerleaders or fundraisers without expectations of change and reform. But they were not abandoners either.

LAWRENCE H SUMMERS Lawrence H Summers is the Charles W Eliot University Professor and president emeritus at Harvard University, and the Weil Director of the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government at Harvard Kennedy School. Over the past two decades, he has served in a series of senior policy positions in Washington DC, including secretary of the treasury for President Bill Clinton, director of the National Economic Council for President Barack Obama and the World Bank’s vice president of development economics and chief economist. Twitter @LHSummers  larrysummers.com

globalgovernanceproject.org

What do you expect from the G20 leaders at Riyadh? This moment may be remembered as a hinge in history. There is the risk that global cooperation will diminish, and the idea of a global community will be lost. There is the possibility that the 50-year trend towards global integration and the emergence of markets, and the trend of the standards of living, health indicators and literacy indicators in developing countries converging with those in the globally top countries – that those trends will be lost. There is the possibility of superpower confrontation with a vigour and danger that we have not seen in more than a generation. And so the risks are enormous. But equally, and ultimately more significant, are the prospects for a new age of progress and inclusion and a turn for the better – as the laissez-faire wave moves out, as institutions that promote fairness loom larger, as technology shrinks and connects the world and enables, if surely not mends, a focus on our common humanity. That is the choice that we face. I do not think it is likely in Riyadh that we will see historic agreements. In fact, it is exceedingly unlikely. But some meetings are remembered as culminations and moments of announcement, and others are remembered ultimately for the consensus that forms in the corridors, virtual or otherwise, and only congeals months or years later on the need for substantial change. It is my hope for this G20 summit that its fruition will be found not in its communiqué but in what its conversations anticipate for future meetings down the road. November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

OPPORTUNITY IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

Interview with Robert Fauver, Former US G7 sherpa

How COVID-19 has affected the world’s financial markets The global response to the pandemic has varied enormously among countries, with little effectiveness from some in controlling macroeconomic conditions. The G20 can play a role in bringing markets back to full health, but greater focus is required How effective has the United States been in countering the recession caused by COVID-19? Both fiscal and monetary policy have eased the downturn and set the conditions for recovery. The Federal Reserve has gone to extreme lengths to ensure sufficient liquidity and provide purchase instruments to back up the

financial markets. Congress has produced several small but additive packages of fiscal stimulus. Regulatory changes have allowed new approaches to joint private-sector, public-sector efforts on vaccine production. We’ve done more than we should have on the fiscal side. I’m concerned about the growth of fiscal stimulus across the G20.

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

What are the US prospects for next year? Higher than today. The end of 2021 will be higher than the end of 2020, with 3–4% growth, assuming consistency in macroeconomic policies. My advice to government is steady as she goes. Some input prices and commodities are starting to rise, with some upturns in price inflation, but with slow supply-side responses demand exceeds supply. We’ll see an uptick in the consumer price index over the next six months. So I’d hesitate to add much further stimulus. But we’ll likely end up with as much as $2 trillion. How effective have Japan’s efforts been? The Japanese did not go to the same extremes as many of us did in shutting down. They too are running zero rate interest policies, as is the world. They have sufficient liquidity and their monetary policy looks fine. Japan will likely end the year below its 2020 peak. It will also have a 3–4% pick-up in growth in 2021. If we’re lucky enough to have the Tokyo Olympics in 2021, the amount of international travel will be considerably less than anticipated. Did Canada do the right thing? Yes, in broad terms the Bank of Canada has done an outstanding job in weaving through the various obstacles. The fiscal side is a little less ‘injective’ than ours has been, given Canada’s social structures – unemployment, health care – with more automatic stabilisers. And the Europeans? A month ago, I would have said yes. But today we don’t yet know the degree of the virus’s rebound. The continental Europeans were slower to get their act together because of their rules on fiscal policy and on borrowing and floating bonds. Their monetary policy is still zero-interest rates. I don’t think they provided the depth of policy response that the Bank of Canada or Fed has, but they’re going in the right direction. The United Kingdom has done an outstanding job in encouraging a recovery. Its fiscal policy is spot on. So that’s steady as she goes for four – the US, Japan, Canada and the UK. This suggests they’ve done as well as they could, and should keep a little in reserve. The European continent needs a stronger fiscal policy response. globalgovernanceproject.org

ROBERT FAUVER Robert Fauver is president of Fauver Associates, LLC. He spent 32 years as a career public servant in the United States working in the Treasury, State Department, White House and National Intelligence Council. He was President Bill Clinton’s sherpa for the G7 summits of 1993 and 1994 and special assistant to the president for national security. He designed trade penalties for India and Pakistan following their testing of nuclear weapons and negotiated the yen-dollar negotiations that led to the beginning of liberalisation and internationalisation of Tokyo’s financial markets.

Financial markets are beginning to discriminate again between the quality of debt in the industrialised and developing worlds. This is not healthy for emerging markets”

How about China? China’s downturn seems stickier than most other G20 countries. Its economy is far less responsive to fiscal and monetary policy. It doesn’t have well-developed financial markets. The bond market is less structured. So the policy tools are more credit rationing than interest rate determined lending, or playing in stock and bond markets by the central bank. The fiscal side is more complicated, because the industries owned by the People’s Liberation Army are outside the control of the central authorities. But if the Chinese authorities say the economy is growing, then it must be. I would not argue that reciprocal trade exists between China and the rest of the world. Barriers for Chinese importers to world markets are sufficiently high that China will not be a classic engine of growth. It runs sizeable net surpluses, so it will suck reserves out of the world economy, not provide stimulus.

Have G20 members collectively added value? Some have not been very effective in controlling macroeconomic conditions. In Latin America the virus continues to spread with horrifying results. Brazil and Argentina are in a serious condition, including macroeconomically. Rebuilding will be difficult and time-consuming. They have only stopped the fall. Most emerging and developing markets do not have the borrowing space to do much in aggressive fiscal stimulus. Financial markets are beginning to discriminate again between the quality of debt in the industrialised and developing worlds. This is not healthy for emerging markets. What should G20 leaders at their Riyadh Summit do? They need to pray that they’ve got the answers coming down the pike. They had a strong start with their March summit, but I hope they can be more practical than they tend to be. They need to hone down their wish lists and focus on a significant issue.

November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

OPPORTUNITY IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

Interview with Dennis Snower, President, Global Solutions Initiative

We still have far to go How has the COVID-19 crisis exacerbated inequalities and social cohesion? The greatest hit is to the socially disadvantaged and those with children unable to go to school, who did not have sufficient digital resources, or human capital to keep their education going. Due to limited physical mobility and economic duress, they are more likely to contract the disease. It exacerbates the threat people feel and increases their flight into ideologies in which they feel secure. The lack of mutual comprehension between populists and cosmopolitans grows. Economic and political cleavages make it more difficult for people to protect themselves: if you believe that masks and social distancing wrest power away from the people, you’re less able to shield yourself from the pandemic. The public discourse, with economic policy and health policy pulling in opposite directions, has been extremely unhelpful. Health experts emphasise the need for closing schools and enterprises, which harms the economy – and businesses want to open up, which endangers health. How have these crises set back progress in development? Most countries have treated COVID-19 as a national event, for medical supplies, travel, immigration policy, economic policy, subsidies, tariffs and so on. That 66

Much work remains to be done in aligning country objectives with tackling development and other issues. A good starting point would be overcoming the current dichotomy of health versus the economy

How can social equality and well-being best be measured? Many contenders are not measured as consistently, regularly and broadly, and not integrated with business performance, as gross domestic product is. We need a dashboard such as SAGE – solidarity, agency, material gain and environmental sustainability. The policy debate needs a dashboard of well-being with a few elements that are not substitutable for one another, are associated with well-being across cultures, can be regularly measured and exist for a range of countries.

makes development extremely difficult. Disrupted global supply chains leave developing countries, which depend on them, out in the cold. Unemployment there has risen. Advanced country policymakers don’t have the bandwidth to think about development. Some people see the pandemic as symbolic of global problems like climate change that require thinking globally. Germany and the European Green Deal have moved towards a green recovery. But the pleas of business to relax environmental controls have been heeded. The economic shutdown has meant marginally less pollution and environmental degradation, but people staying home still use energy from all sources.

How well have G20 leaders acted to restore economic growth, while strengthening social cohesion ? In a global crisis, countries have an incentive to do similar things, as they did in the 2008 financial crisis. The act of adding these up probably encouraged countries to do more. Developed countries are doing that now, to ensure people’s livelihoods are maintained, businesses stay afloat and people kept safe. With the G20’s Extraordinary Summit on 26 March, the fiscal stimulus has added up to more than $5 trillion. While good, this widened the divide between the less developed and the successful emerging advanced countries. And G20 members did not set something in motion that might not

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

The public discourse, with economic policy and health policy pulling in opposite directions, has been extremely unhelpful”

DENNIS J SNOWER

have occurred individually. Yet the G20 has been effective: Saudi Arabia, the European Union and others have helped developing countries. Still, the G20 has far to go to help align country objectives with tackling development and other problems. In March, the G20 focused on health, macroeconomic policy and trade, but produced nothing on gender equality or the environment. Was this appropriate? It was in the first months of the pandemic globalgovernanceproject.org

Dennis J Snower is president of the Global Solutions Initiative, a professor of macroeconomics and sustainability at the Hertie School in Berlin, a senior research fellow at the Blavatnik School of Governance at Oxford University, a non-resident fellow of the Brookings Institution and a visiting professor at University College, London. Twitter @DJSnower  global-solutions.international

and ensuing economic crisis, given the urgent need. Many countries needed to retain jobs and businesses, hence the furlough schemes, subsidies, grants for struggling businesses, help for unemployed people. But it was certainly not economically appropriate thereafter. It’s keeping zombie businesses alive, and people idle. Amid a structural change in the economy, the economy should not remain rigidly where it is. Many jobs and businesses won’t come back. Even if they do, the adjustment will be lengthy. Most fiscal stimulus should encourage people to find new jobs and firms to find new ways of doing business. The cost in national debt and high interest rates will burden us for over a decade. We should pour all this money into promoting adaptation in the labour and capital markets. Employment policy matching and help in search and matching benefit both labour and capital. What should G20 leaders at their Riyadh Summit do? First, redirect fiscal stimulus to encourage the required great realignment. Second, overcome the dichotomy of health versus the economy. Third, see policy through a dashboard of indicators for well-being. Fourth, design health, social and economic policies in conjunction with one another, to make people as well off as possible, with gender equality and environment protection thus built in.

November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

Cooperation: the foundation of a resilient global financial system COVID-19 has posed the greatest challenge to the financial system since 2008. Back then, post-crisis reforms helped build up a resilient system. Now, as the economic consequences of the pandemic continue to evolve, continued cooperation is essential to maintain financial stability 68

he outbreak of COVID-19 and the containment measures that governments adopted in response created an unprecedented economic shock. The financial system faced its greatest challenge since the 2008 global financial crisis and a real world stress test of the post-crisis reforms. The financial reforms that G20 leaders initiated 11 years ago have paid off. The core of the financial

Randal K Quarles, Chair, Financial Stability Board, and Vice Chair, US Federal Reserve

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT â&#x20AC;&#x201D; November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

OPPORTUNITY IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY system has remained resilient in the face of the huge external shock that the COVID-19 event represents. Banks entered the crisis with significantly higher capital and liquidity than they did in 2008, enabling them to absorb rather than amplify the shock. As a result, the financial system has been able to continue to support the real economy, validating the G20 leaders’ vision that a more resilient financial system is better placed to serve the needs of our economies. The Financial Stability Board has played a critical role in supporting international cooperation and coordination of the COVID-19 response. Since the onset of the COVID-19 event, FSB members have shared information, assessed vulnerabilities and coordinated policy responses. Most regulatory measures taken by FSB members used the flexibility available in international standards, including in the form of system-wide and firm-specific buffers. In April 2020, the G20 endorsed the FSB principles that guide the use of this flexibility, to preserve a level playing field and prevent harmful market fragmentation. In response to the COVID-19 event, FSB members took swift action to stabilise markets, but the path of recovery is still uncertain. Although the FSB’s initial response focused on the significant liquidity stress in financial markets and on measures to promote financing to the economy, we have increased our focus on the solvency risks to which financial institutions are exposed and on the changing assessments of the funding needs of the real economy, depending on the path of the recovery. Potential procyclical effects of credit rating downgrades and the risk of further liquidity stress require continued attention. LESSONS TO LEARN The financial system has shown increased resilience, but there are still lessons to learn. For one, the COVID-19 event has underscored the need to ensure that regulatory reforms are working as intended. In June, as part of its ongoing programme of evaluations, the FSB published for consultation an evaluation of the effects of too-big-to-fail reforms. These reforms were endorsed by the G20 following the global financial crisis, and have been implemented by FSB jurisdictions over the past decade. The evaluation finds that the reforms have made systemically important banks more globalgovernanceproject.org

The financial system has shown increased resilience, but there are still lessons to learn”

resilient and resolvable, thereby helping to reduce their systemic and moral hazard risks. In addition, the market turmoil in March, which led to the need for massive intervention by central banks, has highlighted the need to better understand vulnerabilities in non-bank financial intermediation and strengthen its resilience while preserving its benefits. The growth and evolution of NBFI have been one key trend in the global financial system over the past decade. Although this may have helped to further diversify sources of credit in support of economic growth, it is essential that authorities understand any associated risks. By the G20 summit in November, the FSB will therefore carry out a holistic review of the market turmoil in March and will map the critical connections within the NBFI sector and between that sector and the banking system. This will inform the FSB’s work to improve the resilience of NBFI while preserving its benefits. As G20 leaders prepare for their November summit, they should keep in mind the significant benefits reaped from their support for global regulatory standards over the past decade. Thanks to the post-crisis reforms, the financial system has proved resilient in the face of unprecedented challenges. As the economic consequences of COVID-19 continue to evolve, continued cooperation among financial authorities will be essential in maintaining global financial stability.

RANDAL K QUARLES Randal K Quarles became chair of the FSB in December 2018. He has been a member of the Board of Governors and vice chair for supervision of the Federal Reserve System since 2017. Previously, he founded and was managing director of The Cynosure Group and a partner at The Carlyle Group. Mr Quarles served as under-secretary for domestic finance at the US Treasury and as assistant secretary for international affairs. He also served as the US executive director of the International Monetary Fund. ‫ ‏‬ fsb.org

November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

OPPORTUNITY IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

United in action Uncoordinated action in response to COVID-19 has resulted in new challenges that span the world and its economies. To overcome these issues, a series of measures – from making health a priority to thinking unconventionally about public interventions – could help global interests prevail Chiara Oldani, University of Viterbo ‘La Tuscia’, and Pietro Maffettone, University of Napoli Federico II

Expected decline in EU GDP resulting from COVID-19

Expected decline in GDP in emerging countries

20 members have reacted promptly and decisively to the adverse economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet they have not done so in a coordinated way; the temporary lockdown in many G20 countries after March 2020 generated a government-led fall in supply accompanied by strong slowdowns in demand and rapidly rising unemployment. These circumstances have engendered the deepest recession in recent history. Gross domestic product is expected to decline by 7% in the European Union and 2% in emerging countries. Economic fundamentals are pushing down asset prices, and the threat of financial instability has loomed large in past months. According to most forecasts, the recovery will be gradual rather than ‘V-shaped’, and output and employment levels are likely to return to pre-pandemic levels in about two years. The EU, Japan and the United States acted promptly to avoid a hard landing for their economies, drawing on unprecedented public resources to

fund public insurance mechanisms (such as unemployment benefits, health care and research spending) and propping up large parts of the private sector. Eurozone governance openly adjusted its long-standing penchant for fiscal austerity by publicly allowing significant flexibility on debt and deficits. Central banks injected large amounts of liquidity; financial markets have reacted positively since May 2020 and asset prices have recovered. However, the public financial system in several G20 members, such as Brazil, India and Indonesia, seems unable to carry out the twin tasks of managing the health crisis and financing the recovery. THE HERE AND NOW Economists and policymakers are clearly worried about the here and now, especially about potential adverse changes caused by the pandemic. Some of those changes concern the structure of the economy. Will some sectors fully recover or will the damage be long-lasting (for example, how will tourism be affected)? Some concern employment. Will we see higher structural unemployment? Will new employment opportunities now emerging match the skills of currently displaced workers? Some concern global market integration. Will the complex organisation of supply chains remain intact across the globe? Some concern investor confidence. Despite large public interventions, will the private sector resume investing, given that medium-term prospects are linked to effective therapies and vaccines still being developed? Some concern government revenues. Given the shift of economic activities to online platforms, and the current lack of a credible system to levy taxes on

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

Higher inequality will affect the economic structure of some countries, and may well fuel future outbreaks of populist movements, thus threatening political stability” these activities, will developed countries witness a structural reduction in their tax intake? Some concern poverty and inequality. Will countries making steady progress in reducing the number of poor households be able to continue doing so? The pandemic seems to be increasing inequality within countries, which has been rising since the 1980s. Higher inequality will affect the economic structure of some countries, and may well fuel future outbreaks of populist movements, thus threatening political stability. Economic growth requires social peace and political stability. Higher inequality is potentially damaging to both. One of the main challenges for the G20 will be to reduce poverty and inequality in ways that are compatible with market efficiency and thus produce equitable and sustainable growth. To meet these challenges, G20 members should adopt the following measures. First, they should tackle the health crisis head on and reassure people that their health is a key priority. Countries that have opted for a laxer stance are paying a higher price in human lives and might very well see their recoveries delayed. Second, G20 leaders should think unconventionally about the nature and purpose of public interventions. Direct cash payments to citizens and large infrastructural investments come to mind. For some countries, higher levels of borrowing might be justifiable given extremely low interest rates. With the low prospects of inflation rising quickly, tightly controlled monetisation could also be used when borrowing does not seem sustainable. Third, the G20 should pay particular attention to social equity. A productive way of doing so would be to massively increase investments in human capital. Finally, G20 members should work on policy globalgovernanceproject.org

coordination. Given the structural ineffectiveness of the International Monetary Fund and the World Health Organization as global political facilitators, the G20 could seize the opportunity and effectively become the sole global policy forum still on the playing field. It should act to prevent individual national interests from prevailing and producing collectively sub-optimal results in the long run.

CHIARA OLDANI Chiara Oldani is a professor of monetary economics at the University of Viterbo ‘La Tuscia’ and the director of the G20 Research Group’s Rome office. Her research currently focuses on over-the-counter financial derivatives and the complex web of counterparty risk, widely considered a major precipitating factor of the global financial crisis in 2008. Twitter @ChiaraOldani  www.unitus.it

PIETRO MAFFETTONE Pietro Maffettone is a professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Napoli Federico II. He received his MSc and PhD from the London School of Economics, where he was also a fellow in government. Before joining the University of Napoli he was a lecturer in global politics and ethics in the School of Government and International Affairs at Durham University.

November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

GLOBAL SOLUTIONS TO TAX CHALLENGES

G20 performance on

international taxation Since its inception, the G20 has played a central part in structuring international corporate taxation – a role it must uphold in light of the COVID-19 pandemic, which demands strengthened cooperation among members

ince their inaugural Washington Summit in 2008, G20 members have played a pivotal role in reforming the architecture of international corporate taxation. To address tax evasion and avoidance, leaders at the Los Cabos Summit in 2012 tasked the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development with developing and implementing a new taxation regime known as the Inclusive Framework on Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS). It now has 137 member countries, representing more than 95% of global gross domestic product. In light of the renewed spotlight on global tax reform at the Buenos Aires Summit in 2018, the 2020 Saudi G20 presidency has pledged to find a consensus-based solution to address the tax challenges arising from the digitalisation of the economy. CONCLUSIONS Although international taxation has been a consistent feature in G20 deliberations

137 13,146

member countries of BEPS, representing +95% of global GDP

words dedicated to international tax in summit outcome documents

Michael Motala, Director of Tax Analysis, G20 Research Group since the Washington Summit, its proportional weight of communiqué conclusions at each summit has been inconsistent. G20 leaders have dedicated a total of 13,146 words to international tax in their summit outcome documents, which represents approximately 7% of their total number of words. Between the 2008 Washington Summit and the 2015 Antalya Summit, the portion of words per summit ranged from 1% to 5%. A new trend emerged with 19% at Hangzhou in 2016, followed by 14% at Hamburg in 2017 and 17% at Buenos Aires in 2018. At Osaka in 2019, it dropped back to the level of previous years at 3%. COMMITMENTS These conclusions contained 131 collective, politically binding, future-oriented commitments, or approximately 5% of the total commitments on all subjects the summits made. International tax commitments averaged about eight for each summit since 2008. They ranged from a low of one (1% of the total) in Toronto to a high of 25 (9%) at St Petersburg in 2013. COMPLIANCE Of these 131 tax commitments, 31 have been assessed by the G20 Research Group for compliance. Compliance averaged

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

G20 performance on tax, 2008–19 100

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CAUSES OF COMPLIANCE What causes this compliance? This analysis considered several ‘catalysts’ that are embedded in the text of commitments that can improve or hinder compliance outcomes. Multiple regression analyses were used to estimate the impact of the 17 catalysts on compliance. It found two significant ones. First, the strength of the language used in a commitment lowered compliance by 15%, implying that G20 members tend to comply less with commitments that are more forcefully expressed, such as commitments to take action against non-cooperative jurisdictions. Second, reference to an international organisation other than the OECD reduced compliance by 35%, which

Michael Motala is the director of tax analysis at the G20 Research Group while completing his PhD in political science at the University of Toronto, where his research focuses on the implementation of the G20/OECD Base Erosion and Profit Shifting Initiative and the new global tax governance. He holds degrees from Columbia University, Osgoode Hall Law School, the London School of Economics and Political Science, and the University of Toronto’s Trinity College.

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MICHAEL MOTALA

Twitter @MichaelMotala  www.g20.utoronto.ca

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79%, above the all-subject average of 71%. Although average compliance was strong, levels of compliance varied. Compliance was highest at 98% following the Toronto Summit in 2010, where leaders committed to designing and implementing a structure for resolving financial crises without burdening taxpayers. The next highest was from Hamburg in 2017 with 97%, followed by Antalya in 2015 with 92%. The lowest compliance was 53% from the 2009 London Summit, where leaders pledged to take countermeasures against non-cooperative tax jurisdictions. Also low was Cannes in 2011 with 54%. In the middle was St Petersburg in 2013 with 71%.

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implies that delegating commitments to other institutions may result in relatively poor performance. CORRECTIONS At the Riyadh Summit in 2020, G20 governments should forge a consensus on BEPS 2.0, which refers to the OECD’s new project to address the challenges of digitalisation. Following a public consultation process in May 2019, the OECD released a two-pillar framework for achieving a consensus-based solution to the challenges of digitalisation: first, take a coordinated approach to reallocating taxing rights and, second, set new rules to govern the allocation of a minimum global tax. The G20 subsequently endorsed the framework. However, although international corporate taxation has been a focus of global diplomacy at the G20 and average compliance with its related commitments is strong at 79%, public correspondence between France, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States since 2019 highlights significant differences between major stakeholders in the process. Given the current financial crisis and the fiscal reckoning prompted by the COVID-19 pandemic, strengthened cooperation and a new consensus on BEPS 2.0 are urgently needed to close loopholes in the international tax system.

November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

ADVOCACY

EY Addressing the tax challenges of the digital economy has long been a focus for governments and the OECD. But, as the COVID-19 pandemic shifts BEPS 2.0 discussion timelines and with mounting pressure from unilateral measures, Barbara Angus, EY Global Tax Policy Leader, provides insight into what’s been accomplished in 2020 and what’s still ahead for the project in 2021

Progress and challenges on the path to a consensus-based solution to BEPS 2.0 74

Barbara M Angus, Global tax policy leader, EY

wo days before the October meeting of the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors, over 800 pages of documents were released in the G20/OECD’s project on addressing the tax challenges of the digitalisation of the economy. The main documents are detailed technical blueprints with respect to both the Pillar One work on revising long-standing nexus and profit allocation rules to increase the taxing rights of market countries, and the Pillar Two work on developing new global minimum tax rules to ensure that all cross-border business income is subject to at least an agreed minimum rate of tax. The October documents reveal how much progress has been made on the design of new rules under the two pillars since the

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

ADVOCACY

EY last major release in this project, which is known as Base Erosion and Profit Shifting 2.0, but at the same time the documents show just how much work is still to be done. As the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development foreshadowed in recent months, the 137 jurisdictions engaged in this project as members of the Inclusive Framework have not yet achieved the G20 goal of a consensus-based solution in 2020. However, that target date was very ambitious given the complexity of the technical, policy and political matters that need to be resolved in a manner that satisfies the broad spectrum of perspectives on the project across Inclusive Framework members. The cover statement from the Inclusive Framework describes the blueprints as providing a solid basis for future agreement and indicates that Inclusive Framework members have agreed to work to swiftly address the remaining issues with a view to bringing the process to a successful conclusion by mid-2021. This extension was effectively endorsed by the G20 finance ministers at their recent meeting, with the communiqué referring to the goal of a global consensus-based solution in that period. COVID-19, NEW CHALLENGES HINDER BEPS 2.0 PROGRESS The circumstances surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic created major hurdles in advancing the BEPS 2.0 work in 2020. The project schedule shifted almost overnight, from in-person sessions to all virtual meetings, with the government participants juggling this work and the demands of work on economic relief and stimulus programmes developed in response to the crisis, and delivered to a great extent through the tax system. The technical details spelled out in blueprints are a testament to the effectiveness of the new ‘work from anywhere’ paradigm. At the same time, however, it is clear that these circumstances have not been as conducive to progress on resolving the significant political differences, where old-fashioned face-to-face conversations and undivided attention continue to be critical. As we look ahead, it remains to be seen how the ongoing work on BEPS 2.0 will be affected by governments’ evolving tax policy priorities as they balance the need to provide economic stimulus to drive growth with the need to put their fiscal houses in globalgovernanceproject.org

Looking ahead, it remains to be seen how the ongoing work on BEPS 2.0 will be affected by governments’ evolving tax policy priorities”

BARBARA M ANGUS Barbara M Angus is global tax policy leader at EY, where she engages with clients and governments on tax policy development and implementation assistance across the globe. From 2016 to 2018, Ms Angus served as chief tax counsel for the Committee on Ways and Means of the US House of Representatives, where she played a key role in the development and enactment of the recent comprehensive US tax reform. Earlier in her career, she also had public sector roles as the international tax lead for the US Department of the Treasury and business tax counsel for the congressional Joint Committee on Taxation. Twitter @EY_Tax  ey.com

order after the massive spend on COVID-19 response measures. The pressure of unilateral measures is another challenge for the BEPS 2.0 project. Indeed, one of the project’s objectives is to fend off – or roll back – uncoordinated unilateral measures, such as the adoption of digital services taxes by governments that see an urgent need to address the potential for businesses to serve local markets with no local presence. The steady stream of new DSTs has grown since BEPS 2.0 began, with

Spain taking the final steps to enact a DST just days after the release of the blueprints. In the past, new DSTs were explicitly intended by the enacting governments to be just a temporary solution while a coordinated global solution was being developed. With some of the more recent DSTs, however, there has not been a clear signal that the tax is intended to be temporary. Moreover, while OECD documents have described elimination of inconsistent unilateral measures as a necessary element of any consensus on Pillar One, more detail is needed on how the determination of inconsistency would be made and on the mechanism for ensuring the withdrawal of such measures. A shared concern is that a DST or other new unilateral measure that is put in place would be hard to dislodge, especially in this global environment of mounting government debt and deficits. WHAT’S AHEAD The BEPS 2.0 project is now heading into a public consultation phase, with stakeholders invited to submit written comments on the blueprints and participate in a virtual consultation meeting to be held in mid-January. It is important for businesses to take this opportunity to actively engage with policymakers on the implications of the fundamental changes under consideration. As political discussions of BEPS 2.0 resume in early 2021 with a new but still ambitious deadline, it is essential that the Inclusive Framework takes the time to fill in the technical details, resolve the areas of difference and consider all perspectives in order to ensure true consensus. The views reflected in this article are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the global EY organisation or its member firms.

November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

lobalisation and digitalisation have changed how and where profits are made. International tax rules, which date back to the 1920s, have yet to adapt accordingly. The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated these trends, so the current international tax rules are increasingly perceived as unfair and outdated. Growing public pressure has led some countries to consider implementing unilateral measures to tax multinational enterprises that are operating in their markets, but that cannot be taxed based on current ‘nexus’ and ‘profit allocation’ rules. The proliferation of unilateral measures such as digital services taxes actually decreases tax certainty while increasing the likelihood of disputes. Disputes relating to these matters have even arisen among certain G20 members, further highlighting the urgency to develop a global solution. There is now widespread agreement – and not just in the G20 – that international tax rules must be adapted to the 21st-century economy. ON EQUAL FOOTING The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development has brought together more than 135 countries, including all G20 members, on an equal footing in the G20/OECD Inclusive Framework on Base Erosion and Profit Shifting.

Tax and digitalisation: the need for a multilateral response International tax rules have yet to adapt to modern business. A multilateral response is essential if countries are to overcome the tax challenges arising from digitalisation

Pascal Saint-Amans, Director, Centre For Tax Policy and Administration, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

GLOBAL SOLUTIONS TO EMPOWERING WOMEN TAX CHALLENGES Since 2016, its members have been implementing a 15-point action plan to tackle tax avoidance by multinationals, developed between 2013 and 2015. Substantial progress is being made on countering BEPS risks in several areas. Yet the tax challenges arising from digitalisation, which go beyond BEPS issues, remain to be addressed. TWO-PILLAR APPROACH Following a mandate from the G20, countries committed to reaching an agreement on a consensus-based solution by the end of 2020. Its implementation would improve tax certainty for both businesses and tax authorities. The ongoing work is based on a two-pillar approach, which has been informed by extensive public consultations with many stakeholders, including businesses, academia and civil society. Pillar One would establish new rules on where tax should be paid (nexus rules) and a fundamentally new way of sharing taxing rights between countries. The aim is to ensure that digitally intensive or consumer-facing multinational enterprises pay taxes where they conduct sustained and significant business, even when they do not have a physical presence, as is currently required under existing tax rules. Pillar Two would describe a set of rules that would ensure all large multinationals pay at least a minimum level of taxes on their profits somewhere in the world, which will help address remaining BEPS challenges.

If multilateral efforts fail, and countries increasingly choose to adopt unilateral measures, the risks to the international economy could be grave”

projected increase in global corporate income tax revenues from proposed reforms

GLASS HALF FULL Although the G20 deadline could not be met due to delays caused by the COVID-19 crisis and political divergences, substantial progress was achieved. During its 8–9 October 2020 meeting, the Inclusive Framework approved blueprints of the two-pillar approach to address the tax challenges of the digitalisation of the economy, and recognised them as “a solid basis

PASCAL SAINT-AMANS Pascal Saint-Amans has been director of the CTPA at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development since 2012. He joined the OECD in 2007 as head of the International Co-operation and Tax Competition Division in the CTPA. In 2009, he was appointed head of the Global Forum Secretariat, created to service the Global Forum on Transparency and Exchange of Information for Tax Purposes. Before joining the OECD, he was an official in the French Ministry for Finance and served as financial director of the French Energy Regulation Commission. Twitter @PSaintAmans  oecd.org

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for future agreement”. The Inclusive Framework also agreed to continue working to resolve the remaining issues quickly, with the goal of concluding the process by mid-2021. On 14 October 2020, G20 finance ministers endorsed the blueprints and stated: “Building on this solid basis, we remain committed to further progress on both pillars and urge the G20/OECD Inclusive Framework on BEPS to address the remaining issues with a view to reaching a global and consensus-based solution by mid-2021.” The blueprints, which are currently subject to a public consultation, reflect the convergent views of members on many of the key policy features, principles and parameters of both pillars, and identify remaining technical, administrative and policy issues yet to be resolved. Input on the consultation documents can be provided until mid-December 2020. BOOSTED GLOBAL REVENUES According to the OECD, the two pillars could increase global corporate income tax revenues by about $60–100 billion per year or up to around 4% of global corporate income tax revenues, taking into account the combined effect of these reforms and of the US Global Intangible Low-Taxed Income regime. For businesses, simpler rules, increased tax certainty and the prevention of double taxation would create an environment that is more conducive to trade and investment. However, if multilateral efforts fail, and countries increasingly choose to adopt unilateral measures, the risks to the international economy could be grave. Continuous support from the G20 leaders for the proposals, combined with leaders’ active role in bridging differences, would go a long way to ensure political agreement can be reached on a consensus-based solution by mid-2021.

November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

SUPPORTING EMPLOYMENT

Safeguarding the world of work Unity and solidarity are key themes of the Saudi G20 presidency as it works to overcome the effects of COVID-19 and ensure a sustainable recovery in all areas – including employment

hen we had our first meeting of the Employment Working Group under the 2020 Saudi G20 presidency in Jeddah in February, we could not have imagined how our world would change, how our labour markets and societies would be affected, and what unprecedented challenges we would face. The COVID-19 pandemic has cast a shadow across the world and has left an indelible mark on 2020. It has created significant and unprecedented challenges for all countries. Against this global backdrop, with its many complexities and challenges, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has continued to deliver international leadership, through its G20 presidency, to help overcome this crisis. The urgency of the global situation requires agile leadership to ensure that the G20 policy priorities continue to reflect the global reality, uniting all G20 members on the goal of mitigating the impact of COVID-19 on our economies, societies and labour markets. To address this crisis, G20 leaders responded to His Majesty King Salman bin Abdulaziz’s call for an Extraordinary Summit on 26 March 2020. Here, leaders committed to do whatever it takes to overcome the pandemic, including protecting lives, safeguarding jobs, restoring confidence, maintaining financial stability, minimising disruptions to trade and global supply

Ahmed Al-Rajhi, Minister of Human Resources and Social Development, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia chains, and helping all countries in need of assistance. On 23 April, the G20 labour and employment ministers followed up on the leaders’ summit. They committed to continue to work together to develop and implement comprehensive, effective measures to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on societies and on domestic and global labour markets. Fighting and overcoming the pandemic remains our highest and overriding priority. This cannot be achieved solely by the G20 governments alone. Social dialogue is critically important. Thus, we widened the discussions to include five G20 engagement groups – Business 20, Civil 20, Labour 20, Women 20 and Youth 20 – and worked closely with international organisations, mainly the International Labour Organization, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, and the World Bank Group. COORDINATED EFFORTS WORLDWIDE Our coordinated international efforts culminated in the G20 labour and employment ministers’ meeting on

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

10 September, where we worked to provide practical support and great comfort to hundreds of millions of people when they need it most. We led discussions on how to ensure that workers’ rights are respected and that social protection systems provide access to adequate support for all, reflecting the impact of COVID-19 on our social protection systems. Furthermore, because workers’ employment status has significant implications, correct classifications will help support the creation of regulations and policies to reduce social protection gaps, help minimise worker exploitation and ensure fair support from employers. We agreed to continue working individually and collaboratively to achieve this goal through enhanced coordination and international efforts. THE EFFECT ON YOUTH The pandemic has disproportionately affected youth, in particular young women, through the loss of jobs, education and training opportunities, economic hardship and potential damage to their long-term job and career prospects. The Saudi presidency introduced the G20 Youth Roadmap 2025 to improve the labour market prospects of young people and to achieve the G20 Antalya youth goal to reduce the share of young people most at risk of being permanently left behind in the labour market by 15% by 2025. Women’s employment is a cross-cutting theme of the Saudi presidency’s agenda. As labour and employment ministers, we reaffirmed our commitment to meet the goal agreed on in Brisbane in 2014 by “reducing the gender gap in the

The pandemic has disproportionately affected youth, in particular young women, through the loss of jobs, education and training opportunities, economic hardship and potential damage to their long-term job and career prospects”

participation rates between women and men in our countries by 25% by 2025”. More efforts are still necessary, including increasing the quality of women’s employment. The Saudi G20 presidency announced the establishment of the Behavioral Insights Knowledge Exchange Network, facilitated by the creation and operation of the Riyadh Behavioral Insight Center for Labor Market Policies. This facility will be funded and operated by Saudi Arabia on behalf of the G20 members and co-chaired with Canada. This centre will recognise the value of scientific inquiry and technology in evidence-based decision-making, support the sharing of

knowledge and experience on behavioural insights, and provide great benefits to our countries. Under the Saudi presidency, G20 members have joined together in unity and in a spirit of solidarity, recognising our responsibility to safeguard and promote the interests not only of G20 populations, but also the people beyond our own borders, during these times of unprecedented global challenge. Unity among the G20 members will help overcome the effects of COVID-19 and ensure sustainable medium and long-term recovery. We look forward to working closely with Italy when it assumes the G20 presidency for 2021.

AHMED AL-RAJHI His Excellency Ahmed bin Sulaiman bin Abdulaziz Al-Rajhi has been the Saudi minister of human resources and social development since 2018. He previously chaired the Council of Saudi Chambers and the Riyadh Chamber of Commerce and Industry, and served as vice president of the Federation of GCC Chambers. As a businessman he chaired the boards of several companies and sat on the boards of many governmental and charitable entities.  hrsd.gov.sa/en

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November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

SUPPORTING EMPLOYMENT

Employment-focused recovery

Guy Ryder, Director-General, International Labour Organization

he annual G20 labour and employment ministers’ meeting, hosted by Saudi Arabia on 10 September 2020 and held virtually this year, pledged that the G20 would take large-scale coordinated measures to respond to the impact of COVID-19 on labour markets and societies. The ministers reaffirmed their determination to use social dialogue and to work with other ministers to ensure policy coherence in constructing effective, inclusive and sustainable responses to the pandemic. They further committed the G20 to “adapting and improving our social protection systems to provide access to adequate social protection for all”, including women, youth, the self-employed, platform and own-account workers, and those in informal employment. The G20 ministers’ commitments need to provide the basis for a significant employment policy drive at the G20 summit in November 2020. Clearly, the massive economic and social effects of the COVID-19 crisis are likely to persist for several years. The world is facing a major medium- to long-term disruption in the world of work that comes on top of the secular transformations already under way related to globalisation, technology, demographics and the environment. In this period in which employment and social

As well as macroeconomic stimulus, a more direct, human-centred approach to boosting employment levels and quality is required as we navigate this period of uncertainty and pursue a more inclusive, sustainable world of work protection are as much a macroeconomic as a social justice imperative, the role of the International Labour Organization and its mandate are more relevant than ever. ADDRESSING THE COVID-19 CRISIS The ILO’s policy framework for tackling the COVID-19 crisis highlights the importance of responses under four pillars: stimulating the economy through employment-focused macroeconomic policies; supporting enterprises, jobs and incomes through social protection and employment retention measures; protecting workers in the workplace through, inter alia, occupational safety and health measures and adapted working arrangements; and relying on social dialogue for effective and accepted solutions. International labour standards constitute the pedestal on which the four pillars rest (see figure).

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

Interventions by the ILO prioritise populations that are in the most vulnerable situations. Evidence shows that many of them are women, youth, workers in micro, small and medium-sized enterprises and in the informal economy, migrants and refugees. ILO country-level policy advice is based on three goals: 1. Preparedness – helping countries identify potential risks for their societies and economies, focusing on workers and enterprises. 2.

Mitigation – limiting the employment effects of the shutdown of activities and ensuring that workers and enterprises receive the protection and services they need.

Recovery and resilience – building back better to make societies and economies equipped to withstand future crises and emerge from the crisis with fairer, greener and more inclusive societies.

PRIORITIES FOR G20 RIYADH As labour income losses are massive, standing at a level of $3.5 trillion for the first nine months of 2020 alone, G20 policymakers will need to maintain support to employment and incomes well into 2021. Income support measures for hard-hit groups in vulnerable situations should remain a policy priority. It will therefore be essential for G20 leaders to support enhanced global coordination to implement more active policies for an employment-centred crisis response and job-rich recovery, building on the declaration of the labour and employment ministers. Fiscal stimulus packages to date have been essential in mitigating the impact of the crisis on the world of work in the advanced economies. Yet substantial gaps remain in lowermiddle-income and low-income economies. Both global and national solutions are needed to bridge these gaps. Greater international solidarity to provide enhanced debt relief and stronger financial and technical assistance to developing countries can help prevent an increase in poverty and inequality and maintain progress towards achieving the 2030 Agenda on Sustainable Development and the Sustainable Development Goals.

GUY RYDER Guy Ryder has been director-general of the International Labour Organization since 2012, having held various senior positions in the ILO from 1999 to 2002 and again since 2010. Ryder leads the organisation’s action to promote job-rich growth and to make decent work for all a keystone of strategies for sustainable development. He has a background in the trade union movement and is the former general secretary of the International Trade Union Confederation. Twitter @GuyRyder  ilo.org

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PILLAR 1 Stimulating the economy and employment ∙ Active fiscal policy ∙ Accommodative monetary policy ∙ Lending and financial support to specific sectors, including the health sector

PILLAR 2 Supporting enterprises, jobs and incomes ∙ Extend social protection to all ∙ Implement employment retention measures ∙ Provide financial/tax and other relief for enterprises

PILLAR 3 Protecting workers in the workplace ∙ Strengthen occupational safety and health measures ∙ Adapt work arrangements (e.g., teleworking) ∙ Prevent discrimination and exclusion ∙ Provide health access for all ∙ Expand access to paid leave

PILLAR 4 Relying on social dialogue for solutions ∙ Strengthen the capacity and resilience of employers’ and workers’ organisations ∙ Strengthen the capacity of governments ∙ Strengthen social dialogue, collective bargaining and labour relations institutions and processes

THE LONG-TERM VIEW But macroeconomic stimulus is a short-term stabilisation strategy. At the same time, a more direct, human-centred approach to boosting the level and quality of employment and achieving universal social protection is required to navigate through the structural transformations from which a fairer, more inclusive and more sustainable world of work will emerge. The ILO Centenary Declaration for the Future of Work provides such a human-centred approach, as the G20 labour and employment ministers recognised. It will be of major significance to the recovery if G20 leaders endorse the implementation of their ministers’ important recommendations. November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

Cognizant

The world of work in the COVID era Ben Pring, Co-Founder, Cognizant 1. How much and how will the current proliferating COVID-19 pandemic and its economic and social consequences change the world? After the virus the world is going to be quite different. Whether the current lockdown lasts for weeks or months (heaven help us, years?), very little will remain unchanged by COVID-19. Geo-politics will change – will European solidarity withstand the pressure for Germans to prioritise Germans, Italians their compatriots? Will China be ostracised by the global community? Or further embraced? National politics will change – will populism surge or will deep states reassert themselves at a time when only governments have the 82

Our working lives have long been open to disruption from tech and other external forces, but the arrival of COVID-19 has shifted the world of work at a rate of change that few could have predicted – and has raised urgent questions about how employment will adapt

scale to deal with existential threats? Socio-economics will change – the overnight nationalisation of economies in avowedly capitalist countries will supercharge simmering debates about wealth inequality. Will faith in capitalism be weakened, or strengthened, by the stress test economies around the world are facing? Business will change – will global supply chains withstand breakdowns in what has become business as usual over the past generation or two? Will reshoring and localisation require a complete about-turn for how multinationals operate? Will Mr Justin Time survive? 2. What particular effects will it have on the future world of work? COVID-19 has shown that “heads-down work” can be done anywhere – typing, coding, form filling and so on. This has been obvious to “future of” folks for years but custom, inertia, conservatism, presenteeism and so on have kept many people stuck in their office cubicle. Many senior executives have told us how a) they’ve seen their (and their teams’) productivity go up through not having to travel and being able to bounce from video call to video call (from Sacramento to Sydney), and b) how they’ve enjoyed the reduction in physical wear and tear from the reduction in travel. Yet the COVID-19 interregnum has shown that “heads-up work” is still best done face to face. While we’ve all coped with video calls and business development has held up, there is still no substitute for being “in the room”

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

ADVOCACY

Cognizant when you want to create, collaborate and close. The net-net of this is that large white collar employers will need less office space in the future (our guestimate is 20% over the next two to three years), and the 80% remaining will need to be reconfigured for heads-up work over the next five years. The heads-up reconfiguration will see the demise of cubicles and the design of social/collaborative spaces (with social distancing protocols in place initially). “The office” will no longer be regarded as a white collar factory but bifurcate into a “showroom” and an “R&D lab”. The showroom will be to impress clients and the R&D lab will be where the “secret sauce” is cooked. Most other work (accounting, procurement, legal, admin and so on) will happen in low-cost hubs (India or Indiana) or people’s homes. Companies will hold local monthly social/ collaborative shindigs rather than simply global/regional annual ones to create, maintain and extend culture and team building. This will be one of the main functions of the physical space going forward. The office is not dead, nor is the city, but the suburban commute to a cubicle will go the way of the dodo in the next 24 months, and only dodos and dodo companies will maintain that model. 3. What established, emerging and new technologies will become a ubiquitous part of our daily life at work, home and elsewhere? The infrastructure to facilitate working from home is ubiquitous, but it still has some way to go; please don’t imagine Zoom is as good as it gets – see StreamYard

The infrastructure to facilitate working from home is ubiquitous, but it still has some way to go; please don’t imagine Zoom is as good as it gets” and Mmhmm for more glimpses of the future of your meetings. The Lidar capabilities of Apple’s iPhone 12 give a clue as to where augmented and virtual reality will take non-in-person meetings soon, as does the virtual concert platform created by Wave XR. Currently, that’s being used by John Legend and Dolly Parton for their gigs – soon you’ll be using it for your 9am conference calls. 4. Will the depth and breadth of digitalisation continue at its current highly rapid pace and become a permanent, dominant feature of work and life for all around the world, including poor people and poor countries? COVID-19 is acting as a catalyst for a “great online leap forward”. The impact of the internet in the past 25 years has been staggering, yet vast aspects of society have really only been marginally affected. The virus will change this and act as an incredible catalyst to the world being digitally transformed. Education, health, shopping and entertainment will all become materially more online and

BEN PRING Ben Pring co-founded and leads Cognizant’s Center for the Future of Work. He is a co-author of the bestselling books, What To Do When Machines Do Everything and Code Halos. Ben sits on the advisory board of the Labor and Work Life programme at Harvard Law School. In 2018 Ben was a Bilderberg Meeting participant. He joined Cognizant in 2011, from Gartner, where he spent 15 years researching and advising on areas such as cloud computing. Based in Boston since 2000, Ben graduated with a degree in philosophy from Manchester University in the UK where he grew up.  @Cognizant  cognizant.com globalgovernanceproject.org

virtual. Everything that can go online, will go online. 5. Will the digital divide continue to grow, in and beyond the world of work? Tech is accelerating the compounding of winners and losers. At an organisational level, COVID-19 has exposed the pre-existing condition of many organisations around the world – that they were pre-digital enterprises, unfit for purpose in the modern world, holding on (just) through custom and inertia – their own and their customers’. As the world migrated online during the spring and summer of last year (many aspects, permanently), those that had laid the foundations for a fully digital future saw those investments pay off. Those who had hemmed and hawed saw their indecision become final. The same is true at an individual level. Live in a postal code full of code? Life has never been better. Live in an analog town? Protectionism and wall-building can seem like the only option. 6. How can G20 leaders at their Riyadh Summit best act to shape a better world of work for all? Digital competency is the primary competency as the Fourth Industrial Revolution unfolds. Leaders of countries, of institutions, of companies need to continue focusing on helping their audiences a) understand this, and b) act on it. Education has always been the way individuals and countries have risen historically, and this will continue to be true in the future. Those who can leverage the means of production, now literally in everybody’s hands, have incredible opportunities ahead. Leaders will ensure that more and more people can take advantage of them.

Bharat Masrani

November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

St Petersburg in 2013 and 1,062 (12%) at Brisbane in 2014. It then dropped to a low of 897 words (6%) at Antalya in 2015. The highest number followed at Hangzhou in 2016 with 2,045 words (13%). This dropped again to 1,342 (4%) at Hamburg in 2017, to 787 (9%) at Buenos Aires in 2018 and to 463 (7%) at Osaka in 2019. This recent declining trend reflects rising protectionist tendencies and trade tensions.

COOPERATION ON TRADE AND INVESTMENT

G20 performance on

trade There are several proven, low-cost measures that can help G20 leaders increase compliance with their trade commitments, which, coupled with forward-thinking policies, will help the global economy towards recovery

Maria Marchyshyn, G20 Research Group

he unprecedented impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy and trade requires strong leadership and coordination from the leaders at the G20 Riyadh Summit. Significant disruptions for businesses and global supply chains, combined with the rise in protectionism and trade tensions, have had significant negative effects on global trade and helped tip the global economy into a severe recession. It is of paramount importance for the G20 leaders to keep trade channels open, build resilience in global supply chains, and reaffirm their long-standing commitment to free and open trade. They also need to recommit to the rules-based multilateral trading system, with a reformed World Trade Organization at its core. This will produce an open and supportive environment for global economic recovery. CONCLUSIONS The G20 leaders have dedicated on average 1,042 words (9%) per summit to trade in their communiqués. Between 2008 and 2010, trade deliberation was between 439 and 1,000 words per summit. This rose to 1,329 words (9%) at Cannes in 2011, 1,033 (8%) at Los Cabos in 2012, 1,770 (6%) at

2,045

The highest number of commitments made on trade, in 2013

COMMITMENTS G20 leaders have made 175 trade commitments, accounting for 7% of all commitments across all subjects. Trade ranks fourth, after macroeconomic policy, financial regulation and development. Thirty trade commitments were linked to development, seven to digitalisation and one to climate change. The five commitments made at the 2008 Washington Summit were 5% of its total commitments. The number rose slowly to 17 (11%) at the 2010 Seoul Summit, as the leaders emphasised anti-protectionism in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis, before turning to trade liberalisation and facilitation. The number peaked in 2016 and 2017 at 24 (11%) and 29 (5%) commitments respectively. In 2018, a low of five (4%) commitments were made. In 2019, six commitments (4%) were made, calling again for a free, fair, nondiscriminatory, transparent, predictable, stable trade environment and reform of the WTO. The failure of the WTO’s Doha Development Round resulted in many bilateral and regional free trade agreements and the release of a stand-alone document at the 2013 St Petersburg Summit on Advancing Transparency in Regional Trade Agreements. COMPLIANCE The G20 Research Group has assessed 23 trade commitments for compliance, finding an average of 67%. This is below the G20’s 71% average overall. The two summits with the highest compliance were the first 2008 Washington Summit at 90% and the 2016 Hangzhou Summit at 83%. The lowest were the 2013 St Petersburg Summit at 37% and the 2014 Brisbane Summit at 48%. Since the 2015 Antalya Summit, compliance on trade has never dropped below 79%.

of all commitments made to date are related to trade

67%

Average compliance on commitments made in this area

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

G20 performance on trade, 2008–19 100

Compliance (%)

Conclusions (% words)

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Commitments (%)

By member, the highest compliers were Australia with 92%, the United Kingdom with 84% and Japan with 83%. CAUSES AND CORRECTIONS G20 leaders can use several proven, low-cost measures to increase compliance with their trade commitments. A higher number of words and commitments on trade correlates with higher compliance, the former by a little and the latter by a lot. Holding a pre-summit trade ministers’ meeting correlates with increased compliance by 8%. On issue linkages, the commitments linking trade and development had very high compliance of 95%. Some measures may decrease compliance. These include a reference in the commitment to a multi-year timetable (−16%), to a past summit (−8%), a one-year timetable (−3%) and the WTO (−3%). Commitments with higher politically binding language have compliance of 59% while those with lower politically binding language have 85%. G20 leaders should therefore include more words and commitments on trade in their official documents and continue globalgovernanceproject.org

MARIA MARCHYSHYN Maria Marchyshyn is the lead researcher on trade with the G20 and G7 Research Groups, based at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at Trinity College in the University of Toronto. She focuses on macroeconomic issues, trade and finance, and the European Union. Maria is an adviser to and former vice president of finance of the Organization of Women in International Trade. She is also involved with the UN Association of Canada. She has worked in the financial industry and as a researcher at the European Parliament Committee on International Trade. Twitter @MariaMarch31  www.g20.utoronto.ca

holding pre-summit trade ministers’ meetings. They should avoid referring to a past summit, a one-year or a multi-year timetable and the WTO. Leaders should also recognise the increasing interconnection between trade and issues such as e-commerce,

fintech, development, gender equality and climate change. Open and fair trade will be an important instrument in the global recovery and will facilitate rebuilding smarter in the new age of digitalisation, realising the opportunities of the 21st century for all.

November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

COOPERATION ON TRADE AND INVESTMENT

G20 performance on

entrepreneurship and SMEs With performance in this area falling below average, G20 leaders could employ several measures to increase compliance, from making fewer commitments to implementing a multi-year timetable

Stéphanie Bussière, G20 Research Group

uring its 2020 presidency, Saudi Arabia has emphasised empowering people through trade and investment cooperation, with special attention given to promoting entrepreneurship and small and medium-sized enterprises for a prosperous economy. These are key priorities for the Riyadh

Summit, especially in response to the impact of COVID-19 on the global economy. It is promising that the G20’s performance on entrepreneurship and micro, small and medium-sized enterprises has increased from 2008 to 2019, to reach a solid level now. Still, for Riyadh more improvements could be made. CONCLUSIONS Since the 2008 Washington Summit, G20 leaders have addressed

G20 performance on entrepreneurship and SMEs, 2008–19 100

Conclusions (% words)

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G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

entrepreneurship and SMEs at all but two summits: London 2009 and Los Cabos 2012. The summits from 2008 to 2019 produced 11,832 words on the subject in their communiqués, averaging 845 words for 6% of their total words per summit. This peaked at the 2016 Hangzhou Summit with 3,302 words, for 20%. The 2019 Osaka Summit produced 550 words for 8%. From 2008 to 2014, the G20 focused on promoting entrepreneurship in developing countries and lowering barriers to financing for SMEs to stimulate the global economy. Since 2015, its focus included gender equality and youth entrepreneurship. The G20 endorsed the Action Plan on SME Financing at Antalya in 2015 and the Entrepreneurship Action Plan at Hangzhou in 2016. At Hamburg in 2017, the leaders launched the Women Entrepreneurs Finance Initiative.

STÉPHANIE BUSSIÈRE Stéphanie Bussière is a researcher for the G20 Research Group based at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at the University of Toronto. She holds a BA in political science and French studies from Queen’s University and an MA in political science from the University of Toronto. Stéphanie works at the Toronto Region Board of Trade, where she coordinates strategic initiatives.  www.g20.utoronto.ca

COMMITMENTS The G20 has made 69 collective, future-oriented and politically binding commitments on entrepreneurship and SMEs. It did so at all summits except Washington in 2008, London in 2009 and Los Cabos in 2012. The first commitment came at the 2009 Pittsburgh Summit, which accounted for 1% of all commitments made there. The peaks came with 20 commitments (9%) at the 2016 Hangzhou Summit and 19 (4%) at the 2017 Hamburg Summit. The first phase, from 2008 to 2014, produced 18 commitments, or 26% of the total. The second phase, from 2015 to 2019, produced 51 commitments, or 73% of the total. COMPLIANCE The G20 Research Group has assessed 13 of these commitments for compliance before the next summit was held. Compliance averaged 64%, which is below the G20’s 71% average across all subjects. However, the overall average was lower than the 88% compliance with commitments on entrepreneurship and SMEs made at the 2013 summit, 90% compliance from the 2014 summit and 75% compliance from the 2015 summit. The 2010 Seoul Summit at 39%, the 2016 Hangzhou Summit at 54% and the 2017 Hamburg Summit at 35% were below average. Canada was the highest complier at 96%. globalgovernanceproject.org

It is promising that the G20’s performance on entrepreneurship and micro, small and medium-sized enterprises has increased from 2008 to 2019”

CAUSES OF COMPLIANCE Several measures under the leaders’ direct control contribute to increased compliance. One such measure is the proportion of words and commitments on entrepreneurship and SMEs. Fewer commitments and fewer conclusions coincide with higher compliance. The three summits with the highest compliance, which averaged 84%, had 8% of the conclusions and 3% of the commitments on SMEs. The three summits with the lowest compliance, which averaged 43%, had 10% of the conclusions and 5% of commitments. A second measure that can help leaders increase their compliance is the binding level of the commitments. Less binding commitments correlate with higher compliance. The eight assessed commitments using highly binding verbs, such as ‘we commit’, averaged lower compliance of 61% than the five commitments with lower binding verbs, such as ‘we promote’ and ‘we support’, which averaged 69%. A third measure is linkage to another subject. Commitments linked to macroeconomic policy had the highest compliance with 90%. Those linked to information and communications technologies and digitalisation had the lowest compliance, averaging only 13%. A fourth is a multi-year timetable. The commitments without a multi-year timetable averaged compliance of 69%, whereas those with one averaged only 33%. CORRECTIONS Therefore, to improve compliance with their commitments on entrepreneurship and SMEs, the G20 leaders at their Riyadh Summit can use the following four low-cost accountability measures. First, they should make fewer commitments that focus on entrepreneurship and SMEs. Second, those commitments should link to the macroeconomic subjects of investment, long-term financing and economic development. Third, they should make less binding commitments on SMEs. Fourth, they should make commitments without multi-year timetables.

November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

COOPERATION ON TRADE AND INVESTMENT

Advancing cooperation among G20 members on trade and investment is a key tenet of the Saudi presidency as it seeks to reinstil trust in the multilateral trading system and address the outstanding issues made more urgent by COVID-19

Majid bin Abdullah Al Qasabi, Minister of Commerce, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

he Kingdom of Saudi Arabiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s G20 presidency has drawn on its good relations with all G20 members to bring consensus to priority issues for trade and investment, reconfirming the common commitment for the future of the World Trade Organization and providing a strong response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Since the start of the Saudi G20 presidency, there have been several challenges for trade and investment policy. Key pillars of WTO negotiations, particularly on dispute settlement and monitoring, have not functioned properly for many years, and global foreign direct investment flows have stagnated over the past decade. Reforming the WTO is long overdue, and no progress has been made, despite past statements by G20 leaders in support of improving its functioning. Trust in the multilateral trading system has deteriorated and trade tensions have mounted.

On common ground

These challenges have been compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic, which added a sense of urgency to resolving these outstanding issues and, at the same time, several layers of complexity to existing international trade and investment challenges. One such example was the postponement of the 12th WTO ministerial conference from 2020 to 2021, which has delayed the G20’s political support of WTO reform efforts. A PRAGMATIC PATH FORWARD To address and resolve these challenges, we chose to focus on our commonalities, discuss our different views and ensure a pragmatic way forward. We were supported by the fact that the Saudi trade and investment priorities by their very nature helped mitigate the impact of the pandemic. Indeed, the pandemic only strengthened our resolve and focused our attention on delivering direction and action. At the G20 trade and investment ministers’ extraordinary virtual meeting in May 2020, we agreed on short-term collective actions to alleviate the impact of COVID-19 and longer-term actions to support the necessary reform of the WTO and the multilateral trading system, build resilience in global supply chains and strengthen international investment. Ministers committed to continue monitoring and assessing closely the impact of the pandemic on trade and investment. This was revisited during the ministerial meeting on 22 September, where we discussed the status of trade and investment issues related to COVID-19. We have applied similar constructive approaches to all the Saudi G20 presidency’s trade and investment priorities with the following important results. We identified common ground on objectives and trade policy principles in the Riyadh Initiative on the Future of the WTO, which will provide political support to reform discussions. The Trade and Investment Ministers’ Communiqué, together with the Riyadh Initiative, has already been transmitted to the WTO. We will continue to pursue dialogue in support of WTO reform negotiations in Geneva. globalgovernanceproject.org

When the world looks back on the 2020 Saudi G20 presidency, people will remember that we came together during this crisis to ensure the continuation of trade flows and particularly that of essential goods and services” We compiled policy guidelines that will serve as a reference for policymakers when supporting internationalisation efforts of micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises. We synthesised best practices and lessons learned based on inputs from G20 members, with a focus on trade in services and special economic zones. We issued a call for action on technical assistance for investment attraction to foster investment

promotion capabilities in developing and least developed countries. Much work remains to be done, but I am confident that when the world looks back on the 2020 Saudi G20 presidency, people will remember that we came together during this crisis to ensure the continuation of trade flows and particularly that of essential goods and services, all of which reassured global markets and paved the way towards recovery.

MAJID BIN ABDULLAH AL QASABI Dr Majid bin Abdullah Al Qasabi has been Saudi Arabia’s minister of commerce since 2016. Appointed acting minister of media in February 2020, he is a member of the Council of Economic and Development Affairs. He has previously served as minister of social affairs, acting minister of municipal and rural affairs, head of private affairs of His Highness the Crown Prince and secretary-general of the Jeddah Chamber. An engineer by training, he worked as a professor in the Department of Industrial Engineering at King Abdulaziz University in Jeddah.  mc.gov.sa/en

November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

COOPERATION ON TRADE AND INVESTMENT

Reducing impacts on trade

There are measures that customs can take to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic – from electronic clearance of goods to data-based risk management – and the World Customs Organization stands ready to support these efforts Kunio Mikuriya, Secretary-General of the World Customs Organization

he COVID-19 pandemic, although primarily a public health crisis, has created unprecedented social and economic challenges around the world. Emergency measures to curb the spread of the disease have had an unintended impact on borders and thereby on trade, transport and travel. According to the World Trade Organization’s Trade Forecast 2020, world trade in goods is set to plummet by between 13% and 32% in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. As a standards-setting body, the World Customs Organization develops conventions, frameworks for standards, guidelines and compendia based on

its members’ best practices. These instruments are approved by the WCO Council, the organisation’s highest decision-making body. If required, WCO members can obtain support with implementation of these global standards, including those covering disaster relief. Indeed, the Revised Kyoto Convention, one of the key WCO instruments, promotes trade facilitation and effective controls through its legal provisions describing the application of simple yet efficient procedures. The convention also contains a dedicated chapter regulating relief consignments, which is particularly important given the current pandemic. In addition, the concept of coordinated border management is very high on the WCO’s agenda. As part of a whole-of-government response, customs is among the best-placed government authorities to offer and implement measures to facilitate the cross-border movement of relief and essential supplies and to ensure continuity in supply chains. Coordination with neighbouring countries is also vital, especially regarding measures restricting the cross-border movement of people and goods. The Harmonized System Convention is another WCO flagship instrument, and forms the universal

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

KUNIO MIKURIYA Dr Kunio Mikuriya has been secretary-general of the World Customs Organization since 2009. Previously, he worked for Japan’s Ministry of Finance for 25 years, where he served as director of enforcement, as well as director of research and international affairs, paving the way for the conclusion of the first regional trade agreement for Japan. In addition, he spent time as a counsellor at Japan’s mission to the World Trade Organization and took part in the Uruguay Round trade negotiations of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. Twitter @WCO_OMD  wcoomd.org

‘language’ for classifying goods in international trade. In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, and in addition to compiling a repository of existing instruments and tools to help shape disaster response by customs administrations worldwide, the WCO has developed new guidance documents drawing on the HS and has shared its members’ practices. OFFERING GUIDANCE Three new guidance documents are worth highlighting. The first is a secretariat note for members on how to draw up and use lists of essential goods during a disaster. The other two are an HS classification reference for COVID-19 medical supplies and a list of priority medicines, developed in cooperation with the World Health Organization, to assist customs and economic operators in classifying certain medicines and medical supplies at the international level and to ensure that these essential goods are cleared through borders as swiftly as possible. The WCO has also worked with its private-sector stakeholders through the Private Sector Consultative Group and other international organisations to address any trade and transport challenges and to maintain supply chain continuity. globalgovernanceproject.org

13– 32% expected drop in global trade in goods due to COVID-19

The pandemic has also led to a surge in counterfeit and substandard medicines and medical equipment. The WCO is helping its members fight this scourge by providing a platform for sharing information and by conducting global enforcement. Customs’ practices in response to the pandemic, as submitted by 114 WCO members, have been studied by the secretariat. Some measures have been highlighted and categorised in another dedicated secretariat note. If the WCO had to single out the measures of greatest importance, these would be in the areas of coordinated border management, transparency, predictability and digitalisation of customs processes. In addition to being a major trade facilitation measure, digitalisation contributes to applying social distancing measures during outbreaks of infectious diseases such as COVID-19. The WCO has undertaken a project, funded by Japan, to develop guidelines aimed at further assisting members still grappling with COVID-19 and facing any pandemic-like scenarios in the future. All customs administrations should move towards electronic clearance of goods, single window environments, non-intrusive inspections and risk management based on data analysis, among other measures. The WCO stands ready to offer further assistance to its members in these areas. Strengthened efforts to implement the available international standards and digitalise customs and border procedures are crucial. The G20 leaders’ advocacy and support in this respect would go a long way.

November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

COOPERATION ON TRADE AND INVESTMENT

A better recovery from the current world crisis is essential to healing pre-existing conditions in the global economy, and G20 leaders are well positioned to help mend open wounds and remedy deepening divides

Treatment for global ills Mukhisa Kituyi, Secretary-General, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

he COVID-19 global health emergency has exposed the world economy’s pre-existing economic vulnerabilities, with disastrous consequences for development. Developing countries today face an economic crisis that has spread as quickly as the coronavirus itself. To escape another lost decade, G20 leaders must recognise the scope of the impact of the crisis on developing countries and help infuse recovery plans with support for appropriate trade and development policies to address these vulnerabilities. WOUNDED PROGRESS Global output contracted more sharply in the first half of this year than during the global financial crisis a decade

ago, in some cases registering the steepest drop on record. International trade is expected to drop 20% – a staggering $6 trillion – in 2020, significantly larger than the decline of about $4 trillion during the recession in 2009. Foreign direct investment will drop 40% in 2020, with declines of 45% in developing economies and 50% in the least developed countries, reaching their lowest level in two decades. There have been wide and immediate consequences of this unprecedented shock, especially in developing countries, including rising risk of external debt crises, job losses, business failures, drying up of foreign remittances, and workers quickly returning to rural communities in response to the health emergency and lockdowns. UNCTAD projects that in the least developed countries alone another 70 million people will be pushed into extreme poverty over the next year, part of the first increase in the global extreme poverty headcount in more than two decades. Unfortunately, for the hundreds of millions of people falling back into poverty, notions like ‘essential workers’ or ‘teleworking’ have little meaning. Indeed, while the crisis has accelerated the

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

digital transition, the divide between the digitally enabled and the digitally poor has deepened. Most developing countries now face even steeper obstacles to ensure their integration into the growing digital economy. FAST ACTIONS, SMART SOLUTIONS In the short term, redressing this grave situation requires fast action on various fronts. UNCTAD has led calls for a substantive extension and expansion of the G20’s Debt Service Suspension Initiative, including wider coverage of creditor types and of recipient countries, to include multilateral and private creditors and to cover more middle-income countries and small island developing states. Although the current ad hoc system for sovereign debt restructuring cannot be reformed immediately, G20 leaders must recognise that this institutional deficiency in the international financial architecture remains among the gravest ‘pre-existing conditions’ plaguing the global economy and must be addressed in the near future. Other immediate actions are within reach. G20 leaders can help to expeditiously lower the costs of sending and receiving remittances. They can renew emergency publicly financed relief packages to include relief efforts in developing countries. Donor countries should make every effort to meet the target of 0.7% of gross national income for official development assistance, with a focus on the least developed countries. They should allocate more development assistance to productive sectors, including the high-value service sectors and information and communications technologies that can generate high-quality jobs. Support should also prioritise public financing for jobs and income support, particularly for vulnerable groups and workers in the informal economy, especially women. We also need to work on smart solutions for a better longer-term recovery – starting now. Nowhere is this clearer than in the area of private investment, where the pandemic has augmented the dramatic transformation in global value chains brought about by the new industrial revolution and the digitalisation of the economy. SEEDS FOR RECOVERY Sowing the seeds for recovery and sustainable reconstruction requires globally coordinated action for joint trade and investment promotion and the mobilisation of all trade and investment stakeholders to pay greater attention to development. G20 leaders can make concerted efforts at mainstreaming the Sustainable Development Goals into national and international investment policies, fostering new partnerships and sustainability-themed financial instruments, and deepening the integration of the SDGs as well as environmental, sustainability and governance principles in capital markets and international direct investment. G20 leaders can help close the wide divide between those who are connected and those who have no access globalgovernanceproject.org

20% Expected drop in international trade, worth $6trn

40%

drop in foreign direct investment in 2020

70m

people will be pushed into extreme poverty over the next year

to digital technologies to overcome the challenges of COVID-19. This is especially relevant as the crisis may be speeding up the shift towards digitalisation that is strengthening the market positions of a few mega-digital platforms, which will leave little room for emerging players in developing countries. As G20 members are home to many of the big platforms, they play a particularly important role through bolstering support to small and medium-sized digital entrepreneurs in developing countries, especially to help them begin exporting and creating value for their own domestic digital ecosystems. Unfortunately, not enough has been done in this respect. For example, the share of aid for ICT in total ‘aid for trade’ has declined from 3% in the early 2000s to around 1.2% in the past five years. UNCTAD stands ready to provide support on these and other important trade and development challenges that have now come to the fore. We look forward to continued engagement across the entire international community on these important issues.

MUKHISA KITUYI Mukhisa Kituyi is in his second term as UNCTAD’s secretarygeneral, having been appointed in 2013. He has served as Kenya’s minister of trade and industry, chair of the Council of Ministers of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa, the African Trade Ministers’ Council and the Council of Ministers of the African, Caribbean and Pacific Group of States. As a consultant for the African Union Commission, he helped to develop the structure for a pan-African free trade area. Twitter @UNCTADKituyi  unctad.org

November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

COOPERATION ON TRADE AND INVESTMENT

Trade policy: fleshing out the COVID-19 response The G20’s collective trade policy response to COVID-19 has signalled fresh tactics to global crises, but a lack of clarity of what its promises entail could hinder progress 94

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

ctions speak louder than words. Yet, when faced with a crisis, many policymakers have few qualms about abandoning the commercial level playing field. For sure, there are some voices within government – often found in finance and trade ministries – that warn of the perils of turning inwards and the need for multilateral trade rules. However, invocations to resist protectionism are honoured more in the breach than in the observance. Yes, not many countries have resorted to 1930s-style tariff increases, but there is much more to protectionism than taxing imports. Such as it is, the G20’s collective trade policy response to the COVID-19 crisis has differed from its response to the global financial crisis a decade ago. Then, G20 members were aligned sufficiently that they publicly eschewed protectionism. Beneath their statements lay a subtle understanding of what this protectionist pledge actually meant – and it was less far-reaching than many observers realised. In addition, this pledge was to be monitored by the World Trade Organization. This well-intentioned move to hold G20 governments to account became a matryoshka doll – as more G20 trade ministries and their diplomats starved the WTO of information, and its G20 monitoring reports diminished in content and impact. Even before the shift to populist politics, senior trade officials from free trade–leaning G20 members warned that highlighting the protectionist pledge set the G20 up for failure. A NEW APPROACH Rather than dwell on the downside, in fact, burying that legacy allows for a new G20 approach. Elements can be found in the Extraordinary G20 Leaders’ Statement on COVID-19 in March 2020. In their attempt to “address international trade disruptions” leaders stated: “We commit to continue working together to facilitate international trade and coordinate responses in ways that avoid unnecessary interference with international traffic and trade. Emergency measures aimed at protecting health will be targeted, proportionate, transparent and temporary.” By May, G20 trade ministers had committed, in the annex to their statement, to “ensure that any emergency trade measures designed to tackle COVID-19, including export restrictions on vital medical supplies and equipment and other essential goods and services, … are targeted, proportionate, transparent, temporary, reflect our interest in protecting the most vulnerable, do not create unnecessary barriers to trade or disruption to global supply chains and are consistent with WTO rules”. They pledged to “refrain from introducing export restrictions on agricultural products, including on products purchased for non-commercial humanitarian purposes, and avoid unnecessary food stockpiling, without prejudice to domestic food security, consistent with national requirements”.

globalgovernanceproject.org

Simon J Evenett, Professor of International Trade and Economic Development, University of St Gallen, Switzerland

186 export controls imposed on medical goods and medicines by governments this year

export curbs on food have been put in place

DEFINITION REQUIRED There appears, however, to be no understanding of what “targeted”, “proportionate”, “transparency” and “temporary” mean in practice. G20 leaders should task their trade ministers with translating these key terms into an operational mandate over the next 12 months. Moreover, G20 trade ministers should devise a process that encourages governments to unwind the export curbs on medical goods and food that have been put in place during the pandemic. According to the Global Trade Alert–World Bank–European University Institute monitoring initiative, governments have imposed 186 export controls on medical goods and medicines this year. By the time G20 leaders meet in November 2020, at least 108 will still be in place. Matters are slightly better in the food sector: 49 export curbs were put in place and 23 will remain when G20 leaders meet. Still, there are many trade restraints to be unwound and G20 trade ministers should be told to figure out how to pull this off. It speaks volumes about governments’ commitments to transparency, worldwide and within the G20, that this tripartite monitoring initiative collected twice as much information on trade policy changes in the sensitive medical goods and foods sectors than the Geneva-based international organisations. To fix this, G20 leaders should ask the WTO to publish credible information on emergency measures without seeking ‘verification’ from national capitals. This step will give the WTO a much-needed shot in the arm – and would signal the trust the G20 is placing in the next WTO director-general. The commercial fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic also requires attention, a matter barely mentioned in the G20 trade statement from May. G20 leaders should instruct their trade ministers to execute a work programme that encourages the adoption of economic policy support measures that limit distortions to global commerce. There are already worrying examples of firms seeking commercial advantage from pandemic-era support measures. An active, effective state need not be a mercantilist one.

SIMON J EVENETT Simon J Evenett is a professor of international trade and economic development at the University of St Gallen in Switzerland. He also coordinates the Global Trade Alert, the independent initiative promoting transparency in the world trading system. Educated at Cambridge and Yale universities, he has taught at Oxford and has been a visiting professor at Johns Hopkins University and at the University of Michigan. Evenett has more than 200 publications, held several fellowships at the Brookings Institution and served as a World Bank official twice. Twitter @SimonEvenett  globaltradealert.org

November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

TOURISM: A FORCE FOR GOOD

Winter at Tantora Festival, 3 January 2020. Hot air balloons fly over the Mada'in Saleh (Hegra) ancient archeological site near AlUla, Saudi Arabia

Ambition and adaptation: a vital year for tourism 96

Tourism was already on the agenda for this year’s G20 summit, but given the impact of COVID-19 on the sector the discussions emphasised and elevated by the Saudi presidency have been timely – and offer some solutions to getting tourism back on its feet

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

Hyserb / Shutterstock.com

Ahmed Al Khateeb, Minister of Tourism, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

his year has confirmed the value of tourism to the world. As COVID-19 spread and international travel came to a stop, this value was felt not only by the travel and tourism sector, but across economies, governments and societies at large. Early on, Saudi Arabia recognised the need to reflect the growing importance of the tourism sector, as it is a key pillar in our national efforts to open our society and our economy to the world. The sector is one of the most effective drivers of transformation across government, with a successful tourism strategy cutting across policies on foreign affairs, transport, logistics, labour markets and the environment. One of the key ambitions of our Vision 2030 is to improve the quality of life for every Saudi citizen and expat resident. The opportunities for employment and exploration, which come from a thriving tourism industry, form an important part of this ambition. In Saudi Arabia, our tourism industry is younger than most. It has only been a year since we launched our non-pilgrimage–related tourist visas, encouraging significant travel from across the globe. After issuing half a million tourist visas in the first six months, lockdown measures to combat COVID-19 meant that we had to close our borders. However, tourism is too vital to shut down entirely. As such, we launched the Kingdom’s largest domestic tourism campaign, “Saudi Summer”, to encourage Saudi citizens to explore destinations at their doorstep. The response was enthusiastic, with locals spending some $2.5 billion nationwide since June, up 33% from the same period last year. Other countries that have made domestic tourism safe and seamless for their citizens have been similarly rewarded and are beginning to plan the safe opening of their borders. We hope to welcome international visitors again from early 2021. THE VALUE OF VISITORS Of course, many countries and regions know intimately the value of tourism to their own prosperity. Tourism accounted for 10.3% of global gross domestic product in 2019, and up to 90% in some countries, which have suffered acutely from the consequences of the pandemic. More than 100 million jobs are currently at risk of being lost. Accordingly, it was timely that tourism discussions were emphasised and elevated by this year’s Saudi G20 presidency. The G20 tourism agenda has been formulated in three phases: the immediate crisis response, medium-term recovery policies, and issues relating to the sustainability, inclusiveness and resiliency of tourism in the long term. Our challenge is to learn from developments in each of these, to work collaboratively across sectors and to maintain the positive momentum that we have generated into Italy’s G20 presidency for 2021. The G20 tourism track has achieved a lot this year. The ministers’ extraordinary meeting in April focused mostly on coordinating the immediate response to the COVID-19 crisis. Its joint statement demonstrated the strong commitment of all G20 members to improving safety and traveller confidence, highlighting the importance of collaboration and coordination on restrictions, and globalgovernanceproject.org

Tourism accounted for 10.3% of global gross domestic product in 2019, and up to 90% in some countries, which have suffered acutely from the consequences of the pandemic”

0.5m visas issued in first six months after Saudi Arabia launched non-pilgrimage– related tourist visas

100m tourism jobs worldwide are at risk as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic

2.5

$ billion

spent by Saudi citizens during the “Saudi Summer” domestic tourism campaign

supporting workers and businesses across the sector. After tackling the immediate response, we have shifted our focus to the medium- and long-term recovery of the sector. G20 tourism ministers agreed on the AlUla Framework for Inclusive Community Development through Tourism, which places inclusive community development at the heart of tourism policies in the fields of education, innovation and technology. The ministers also agreed on the Safe and Seamless Travel and Improved Traveller Experience report, which incorporated sharing good practices, supporting resilience in the tourism industry, crisis management in hard-hit regions, and focusing on digitalisation, such as digital health checks at airports. We agreed on guidelines to help us achieve these objectives. In addition, ministers engaged the private sector, as public-private partnerships became a cross-cutting theme throughout our discussions, culminating in a private-sector event where industry leaders unveiled their commitments to recover 100 million tourism jobs. Collaboration with the private sector is necessary if we are to build confidence in the safety and sustainability of the industry. Tourism is a key economic sector and a recognised growth enabler that can certainly help to enhance the G20’s ambition of shaping a better future, combining technological and behavioural change, and fulfilling important policy priorities for our citizens to improve their quality of life and protect the environment for their future. The pandemic has challenged the very foundations of tourism this year, perhaps more than any other sector. Our achievements in collaborating to support tourism businesses and employees, and to recover stronger, show that we are shaping a better future for all.

AHMED AL KHATEEB His Excellency Ahmed Al Khateeb is Saudi Arabia’s first minister of tourism and chairs the Saudi Tourism Authority and Tourism Development Fund. The Ministry of Tourism was established by Royal Decree in February 2020. He has more than 25 years of experience in investment and financial services and has successfully established, managed and restructured multiple private-sector and government entities. Previous governmental positions include minister of health and chair of the board of the General Entertainment Authority.  mt.gov.sa/en November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

ACCOR tagline GRADIENT GOLD N° dossier : 18J3103E Date : 15/02/19 AC/DC validation : Client validation :

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GRADIENT GOLD RGB 255/210/128 + RGB 168/128/84

With over 50 years of history and presence in 110 countries, Accor o�fers the largest brand portfolio in the hotel industry. O�fering over 5,000 properties throughout 39 internationally acclaimed luxury and premium brands such as Ra�fles, Fairmont, Soﬁtel and Rixos, as well as popular midscale and economy brands, such as Mercure, Novotel and Ibis. In the Turkey, India, Middle East & Africa region, Accor offers travellers more than 400 properties, over 107,000 rooms, in its portfolio throughout 36 countries. Highlight properties worth mentioning include Sofitel The Obelisk Dubai, Raffles Dubai, Fairmont The Palm Dubai, Raffles Seychelles, Sofitel Luxor Winter Palace in Egypt and Fairmont Marrakech in Morocco. Having been present in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for more than 30 years, boasting 39 properties (14,314 keys) and 36 (10,372 keys) in the pipeline, Accor has established itself as the leader in the market, with properties including Raffles Makkah Palace, Fairmont Makkah Clock Tower, Fairmont Riyadh, Sofitel Al Khobar Corniche, Swissotel Makkah and Pullman Zamzam Madina.

Fairmont Makkah Clock Tower

Fairmont Riyadh

Banyan Tree Resort AlUla

Raffles Makkah Palace

Saudi footprint and pipeline KSA

Current 39 Hotels 14,314 Rooms

Pipeline 36 Hotels 10,372 Rooms

Our Brands

Mark Willis C H IE F EXECUTIVE O FFIC E R, TU RK EY, IN D IA , MID D L E E AST & A FRICA

Key highlight openings in Saudi Arabia include: • Banyan Tree AlUla (2021) • Raffles Jeddah Hotel & Residences (2021) • Fairmont Riyadh Serviced Residences (2021) • Movenpick Turaif Al Shamal (2021)

Holy Cities With Vision 2030 targeting 30 million Umrah visitors and a significant increase in Hajj pilgrims, Makkah and Madinah, Accor is the leading operator with eight properties and

“As the largest hotel operator in Saudi Arabia it is our responsibility and privilege to support Vision 2030 and the kingdom’s aspirations for sustainable economic diversiﬁcation and to play a pivotal role in shaping the evolution of the hospitality landscape,”

the most diverse portfolio under the Raffles, Fairmont, Pullman, Swissôtel and Mövenpick brands. The Group has six additional projects pipelined in Makkah, bringing 3,109 new keys to market.

Holy Cities footprint and pipeline JEDDAH

RIYADH

MAKKAH

Current

10 Hotels 1,639 Rooms

5 Hotels 843 Rooms

9 Hotels 7,426 Rooms

Pipeline

9 Hotels 1,509 Rooms

8 Hotels 1,688 Rooms

6 Hotels 3,109 Rooms

Mark Willis holds an MBA in International Business from Oxford University in the United Kingdom and has completed a number of senior management programs at Cornell University, New York. With a career spanning over 30 years with leading hospitality companies, Mark brings with him a wealth of operational experience alongside an intuitive knowledge of India, Turkey, Middle East and Africa, a region that he has worked in for over 20 years. He joined the Group Executive Committee for Accor in 2018, where he is responsible for a portfolio of more than 520 hotels in operation and development.

TOURISM: A FORCE FOR GOOD

A new route forward The COVID-19 pandemic has hit tourism hard, but it has also offered a chance to realign the sector and place sustainability at its heart – boosting the already far-reaching benefits that tourism brings Zurab Pololikashvili, Secretary-General, United Nations World Tourism Organization

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s the G20 leaders meet for the Riyadh Summit, hosted by Saudi Arabia, tourism faces the biggest challenge in its history. Restrictions on travel, introduced to control the COVID-19 pandemic, brought an abrupt and unprecedented halt to the many social and economic benefits that tourism delivers, both for developing and developed countries. Indeed, data from the United Nations World Tourism Organization show that international tourist arrivals plummeted by 70% during the first eight months of 2020, placing millions of jobs and businesses at risk. Moreover, the impact is felt beyond tourist destinations: our sector touches almost every part of society and contributes to most of the Sustainable Development Goals. Quite simply, no tourists means no funding for wildlife conservation or for keeping heritage alive, as well as fewer opportunities for women, youth and those living in rural communities.

UNWTO, as the UN’s specialised agency for tourism, has led our sector’s response. Tourism is united like never before. In March, we convened the Global Tourism Crisis Committee, bringing together governments, including those of the G20 members. Alongside them, we invited business leaders, international organisations and our fellow UN agencies to share their concerns and expertise. From the start of the crisis, we identified the key ingredients needed for tourism to not only recover but also to drive wider societal recovery with bold leadership and cooperation. THE SIGNIFICANCE OF TOURISM Both within and outside the Global Tourism Crisis Committee, we have leveraged our unique influence as a part of the United Nations family to ensure tourism’s importance is recognised at the very highest political level. During the visit of a UNWTO delegation to Brussels, the members of the European Union committed to firm action to restart freedom of movement within the bloc. Tourism is explicitly mentioned as a part of the unprecedented economic support package planned for European economies to help them build back from the effects of the pandemic. And this recognition of tourism’s significance is shared globally. In partnership with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, UNWTO hosted an extraordinary meeting of G20

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

No tourists means no funding for wildlife conservation or for keeping heritage alive, as well as fewer opportunities for women, youth and those living in rural communities” ZURAB POLOLIKASHVILI Zurab Pololikashvili has been secretary-general of the World Tourism Organization since 1 January 2018. He was previously Georgia’s ambassador to Spain, Andorra, Algeria and Morocco and its permanent representative to the UNWTO up to December 2017. He has also served as Georgia’s minister of economic development and deputy foreign minister, among other posts, and has a background in the private sector in the financial and business sectors. Twitter @pololikashvili ‫ ‏‬ unwto.org

tourism ministers, designed to identify ways to keep tourism’s contribution to the sustainable development agenda firmly on track despite the current challenges. Out of this came the AlUla Framework for Inclusive Development through Tourism. I encourage all G20 members to use this framework as a plan of action for placing sustainability and inclusivity at the heart of tourism’s recovery. RESTORING CONFIDENCE Over recent weeks, many destinations have been easing or rethinking restrictions on travel, enabling the benefits of tourism to slowly return. In many destinations, domestic tourism has also been actively promoted as a tool for mitigating the pandemic’s impact on jobs and economic growth. Leaders at the Riyadh Summit have a responsibility to seize this momentum. Governments need to work together to keep lifting travel restrictions in a timely, responsible and, above all, coordinated way. This is no time to go it alone. To do so will undermine public trust and delay the much-needed restart of tourism. People want reassurance and consistency. International travel is safe – I have witnessed first-hand how every part of our sector has led the way in adapting to our new reality. But it is not enough just to be safe. Tourism also needs to be seen globalgovernanceproject.org

70% drop in international tourism arrivals during the first eight months of 2020

as safe and secure. To restore confidence, UNWTO is working to create a UNWTO Committee on Common Safety Protocols, tasked with harmonising rules and regulations affecting tourists. All governments, G20 members included, will only benefit from greater consistency and enhanced collaboration. Alongside this, the launch of a new UNWTO International Code for the Protection of Tourists will be a landmark moment, providing the first legal framework to protect tourists as consumers within the context of the pandemic and spreading responsibility for affected tourists fairly across the whole of the sector. The G20 summit provides a platform for strengthening this collaborative approach. Furthermore, it enables leaders to look to the future. This moment is a chance to realign tourism, placing sustainability at the heart of everything we do. This is a chance that must be taken. New ideas and new voices must be embraced. This is why, since the start of the current crisis, we have stepped up our focus on promoting innovation and entrepreneurship. Working with the best new talent in addition to established leaders from both the public and private sectors, UNWTO is leading the restart of tourism. We call on all members of the G20 to work with us to get the sector moving again. Many millions of people are depending on it.

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G20 performance on

gender equality

Compliance on gender equality by G20 members falls below average, but there are measures that can be taken to improve their performance in this area – from dedicating a larger proportion of the communiqué to gender equality to setting specific targets with multi-year timelines

Julia Kulik, Director of Research, G20 Research Group

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Compliance (%)

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Conclusions (% words)

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omen will be among the hardest hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, which threatens to reverse decades of progress in female labour force participation. At their Riyadh Summit in November 2020 amid unprecedented economic uncertainty, G20 leaders must act in concerted, committed ways to safeguard and advance this progress. CONCLUSIONS G20 leaders first addressed gender equality at their London Summit in April 2009, in 155 words or 3% of their communiqué. At Seoul in November 2010 they issued 177 words (1%), dropping to a low at Cannes in 2011 of 52 words (0.4%), then rising at Los Cabos in 2012 to 231 words (2%). This rose at St Petersburg in 2013 to 1,015 words (4%), but dropped at Brisbane in 2014 to 305 words (3%). Then came a sustained rise to 1,235 words (14%) at Antalya in 2015, 1,199 words (8%) at Hangzhou in 2016, and a spike to peak at 4,836 words (14%) at Hamburg in 2017. At Buenos Aires in 2018, the number plunged to 676 words (8%), but rose significantly at Osaka in 2019 to 1,513 or 23% – the highest portion ever. At the Extraordinary G20 Leaders’ Summit on 26 May 2020, the communiqué did not refer to gender. COMMITMENTS This recent rise in G20 summit conclusions on gender equality did not, however, extend to the number of commitments the leaders made. From 2008 to 2019, G20 leaders made 55 commitments on gender equality. The first came at London in 2009, taking 1% of the commitments. The next two (2%) came at Los Cabos in 2012 and an additional four (2%) at Brisbane in 2014. Antalya in 2015 produced four (2%) gender-related commitments. Hangzhou in 2016 had eight (4%). There was a strong surge at the Hamburg Summit hosted by German chancellor Angela Merkel in 2017, with a record 30 core gender equality commitments and 14 related ones (for a total average of 8%). Buenos Aires in 2018 had only seven (7%) core commitments. At Osaka in 2019, the number rose to 12, with an additional four related ones (total of 11%).

1,513

words on gender equality at Osaka in 2019, the most ever

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COMPLIANCE The G20 Research Group has assessed 21 gender commitments for compliance. Combined, the 12 core and nine related commitments averaged compliance of only 59%. This is much lower than the G20’s all-subject average of 71%. The core gender equality commitments averaged a slightly higher 62% than the gender-related ones at 55%. The highest compliance came on commitments on reducing the labour force participation gap by 25% by 2025. The highest overall complier was Canada at 88%, followed by Australia and the United Kingdom at 77%. Eleven months after the 2019 Osaka Summit, the two assessed gender commitments averaged 62%.

JULIA KULIK Julia Kulik is director of research for the G20 Research Group as well as for the G7 and BRICS Research Groups and the Global Health Diplomacy Program, all based at the Munk School for Global Affairs and Public Policy at Trinity College in the University of Toronto. She has written on G20, G7 and BRICS performance, particularly on the issues of gender equality and regional security. Kulik leads the groups’ work on gender, women’s health, regional security and summit performance. Twitter @juliafkulik  www.g20.utoronto.ca

At the start, G20 commitments on gender focused on increasing female labour force participation and improving workplace conditions. There was a slight expansion in 2015 to include women entrepreneurs and women farmers, and later to digital skills development and education in science, technology, engineering and mathematics. In 2017 and 2018, the G20 committed to ending gender-based violence, a particularly important issue this year as the incidence of domestic violence directly related to COVID-19–induced quarantines has risen.

59%

CAUSES Higher G20 compliance on gender equality of about 10% comes from summits where a higher percentage of the communiqué and its commitments is dedicated to gender and gender-related issues. Several catalysts embedded in the commitment text that provide direction for implementation have a positive effect on compliance. The 10 assessed commitments with at least one catalyst averaged 73% compliance, while the other 11 with none averaged only 57%. The two commitments with the highest compliance referred to a specific target, a multi-year timeline, a past summit, a remit mandate, and self-monitoring processes, and had a highly politically binding verb. Commitments expressing this high degree of binding averaged 82% compliance, while those with a lower degree averaged only 51%. CORRECTIONS To increase compliance, G20 leaders should dedicate a larger percentage of the communiqué to gender equality. They should make many commitments on the issue, and give them a high degree of binding to express their personal political will. They should set specific targets with multi-year timelines and commit to working with relevant institutions such as the Global Partnership for Financial Inclusion. They should promise to hold a G20 meeting for ministers responsible for gender equality, as holding G20 ministerial meetings on a specific subject raises compliance with leaders’ commitments with that subject.

compliance on assessed commitments on gender

88%

compliance by Canada in this area, the highest of all G20 members

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Pathways for a gender-responsive recovery As the G20 works to address the economic fallout of COVID-19, the women of the world are ready for governments to bring long-needed change through strong fiscal stimulus packages, comprehensive social protection plans and real action on ending gender violence

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Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, United Nations Under SecretaryGeneral and Executive Director, UN Women

ith markets destabilised, supply chains disrupted, businesses forced to close or scale back operations, and millions without jobs and livelihoods, the economic and social effects of COVID-19 are likely to reverberate for years. However, although women are especially affected, losing their jobs and incomes at an alarming rate, they are also key to a rapid and sustainable recovery. Analysis and intentional response

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through targeted gender-responsive investments, economic stimulus packages and recovery plans are fundamental strategies for sustainable recovery, with women front and centre. The potential consequences of inaction – or wrongly prioritised action – will affect poverty everywhere. Already the pandemic threatens to erase decades of progress on gender equality and women’s empowerment. By next year, an additional 47 million women and girls will likely have been pushed into extreme poverty, reaching a total of 435 million women and girls living on less than $1.90 a day, while gender gaps in extreme poverty will widen. By 2030, there could be 121 women in poverty for every 100 poor men globally, with the worst affected being young women aged 25 to 34 – the age when many are raising families. Women’s unpaid care in families and communities has been taken for granted for too long. In some countries, women do 11 times more such work than men. This ‘invisible’ work contributes at least $10.8 trillion a year to the global economy. Societies and economies depend on it. During the pandemic, women continue to bridge the gap where schools, childcare and other services are shut down or scaled back, and bear the brunt of lost or reduced paid work. The global recession has increased unemployment, financial strain and

globalgovernanceproject.org

In some countries, women do 11 times more such work than men. This ‘invisible’ work contributes at least $10.8 trillion a year to the global economy”

insecurity. The associated loss of income makes it even harder for women to escape abusive relationships at a time when intimate partner violence is clearly rising. HOW TO IMPROVE CIRCUMSTANCES But this negative slide is not inevitable. G20 leaders at their Riyadh Summit can step up urgently with dedicated measures to contain the damage, provide appropriate services and, crucially, drive inclusive decision-making and governance that ensure women’s active participation and leadership. Many governments have already taken unprecedented measures, strengthening access to health care, rolling out cash transfers, and providing paid sick leave and unemployment benefits. However, although some of these measures will benefit women, few are being designed or implemented specifically with their rights or needs in mind. In fact, as the UNDP/UN Women COVID-19 Global Gender Response Tracker shows, only 18% of the global social protection and jobs response to date has been gender-sensitive, either targeting women’s economic security or addressing the rise in unpaid care work. There are notable exceptions. Argentina introduced far-reaching social protection measures, raising the monthly amount of pre-existing cash transfer programmes that prioritise women and extending paid leave to vulnerable groups, such

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PHUMZILE MLAMBO-NGCUKA Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka has been United Nations under secretary-general and executive director of UN Women since 2013. From 2005 to 2008, she served as deputy president of South Africa. Prior to that she served as South Africa’s minister of minerals and energy and deputy minister in the Department of Trade and Industry. She is the founder of the Umlambo Foundation, which supports leadership and education. Twitter @phumzileunwomen  unwomen.org

as domestic workers. Egypt, Georgia, Morocco and Togo have launched new emergency measures to support women entrepreneurs and informal traders with cash transfers, grants and subsidised credits. Australia and Costa Rica ensured that childcare services remained open during lockdown to support essential and other workers with young children. Overall, however, the response remains woefully inadequate, particularly in low-income countries where fiscal space is limited. It is urgent to embed gender equality and women’s empowerment more firmly in plans for long-term recovery and transformation, to build in ways that are both environmentally and socially sustainable. This includes putting gender equality at the centre of transitions towards more sustainable consumption and production, ensuring we grow the right sectors and support women to take advantage of the job opportunities they offer. It also includes expanding gender-responsive social protection systems, including to the 740 million women informal workers – small-scale farmers, market traders and domestic workers – too poor to make regular social security contributions, but not considered poor enough for social assistance. INVESTING IN THE CARE ECONOMY Finally, we need sustained investments in the care economy. As countries seek economic recovery and transformation, there is huge potential to create quality care jobs – in health, education and social care – that both nurture the next generation and are the ultimate ‘green jobs’. Child and elder care services can help women access quality paid employment. Furthermore, ensuring a well-trained and remunerated health 106

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more women and girls will likely be pushed into extreme poverty by next year

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women in poverty for every 100 poor men globally by 2030

workforce is a critical part of responding to COVID-19 and to building future resilience to health pandemics. The women of the world are more than ready for their governments to bring change through strong fiscal stimulus packages, comprehensive social protection plans, and real action on ending violence against women and girls. We urge G20 leaders to rebuild better, creating sustainable economies and reducing inequalities. Through collective response we can advance the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, by investing in sustainable and inclusive economies and by guaranteeing women’s rights, livelihoods and resilience.

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

INVESTMENTS IN INCLUSIVE ECONOMIC GROWTH ADVOCACY

Banque Saudi Fransi

Women forging ahead

a sexual harassment law and expanded the opportunities for women to occupy senior government positions. What impact have these reforms had thus far and what further steps remain? These laws built on a series of reforms that have transformed the Kingdom over the past few years. Our contribution is now being recognised and appreciated. Our role has expanded to other sectors and positions that were male-dominated. This is only the start and the effects of these changes are still young. However, we are confident in our leaders and we understand that full implementation and cultural transformation will take time and be done gradually.

With the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia working towards the objectives of Vision 2030, women are playing an integral – and more prominent – role What role are Saudi women expected to play in realising the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s development strategy, Vision 2030? Saudi women are and have always been active, productive, ambitious and opportunistic. Their knowledge, skills, commitment and capabilities are now recognised and considered key pillars to the realisation of Vision 2030, thanks to the support of the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud and His Royal Highness Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Saudi women are now ambassadors, directors and managers and hold other key leadership positions in both the private and public sectors. And I’m proud to say that Interview with Noura Almudaiheem, Head of Leveraged Finance, Banque Saudi Fransi globalgovernanceproject.org

we as Saudi women are now competing with our male peers in leadership and managerial positions that were monopolised by men for a long time. What reforms has the Kingdom made over the past year to spur this progress? As highlighted in the World Bank’s report, Women, Business and the Law 2020, the government of Saudi Arabia has worked tirelessly to develop and implement reforms that have changed the lives of Saudi women and affected them positively. There have been a lot of reforms that I will not be able to list. However, I will highlight the major ones, which include the removal of the ban on women driving, guardianship, anti-discrimination laws in all stages of employment (including equal pay) and the lifting of travel restrictions on women. In addition, the Kingdom has lifted the ban on women’s mobility, encouraged women’s entrepreneurship by granting them the right to independently open and run a business, passed

How have these reforms and their impact inspired and shaped the work of the Business 20 and the G20 itself in preparing the gender equality agenda of the Riyadh Summit? This issue is not new and has appeared high on the agenda for several years. However, with global economic and market dynamic changes, the awareness of gender equality and women’s empowerment in the workforce has increased significantly not only in Saudi Arabia but globally as well. Women nowadays are empowered to address their concerns and positively participate and engage in the preparation of the G20 agenda. With this impetus, how can the G20 leaders best advance the cause of gender equality at their Riyadh Summit this year? This year is an exceptional one, with the current pandemic and its social and economic implications around the world, which have affected women in so many ways including losing jobs and higher incidence of domestic violence during lockdowns. Therefore, the collaboration among G20 leaders is now more vital to adopting policy actions to foster greater gender equality in the labour market and promote key leading positions to women to ensure proper and speedy use of these reform policies.

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here is opportunity in every crisis. As the world continues to grapple with the ramifications of the COVID-19 pandemic, an economic crisis is threatening to reverse many years of gains in economic growth, poverty reduction and financial inclusion. Close to 100 member institutions in the Alliance for Financial Inclusion – central banks and other financial regulators from developing and emerging countries – have taken timely and decisive actions to ensure that the financial sector continues to function in these challenging times. Their policy interventions and actions are

all well documented in AFI’s COVID-19 Policy Response and Dashboard and Policy Framework for Digital Financial Services in Crisis Response. Although the crisis has hit developing countries hard, we believe that without the strides AFI members made over the past decade in advancing financial inclusion, combined with their proactive policy response to the crisis of the previous months, the situation could have been far worse. Initiatives in digital finance, mobile money, agent banking, electronic know your client processes and financing for small and medium-sized enterprises played a critical part in mitigating the effects of the crisis. These actions have cushioned the impact on the most vulnerable in society, but the road ahead requires robust and inclusive policy responses too. Although most governments have in place stimulus packages to protect their economies and aid recovery, this crisis continues to affect groups differently. Women have been heavily affected, given that they are overrepresented in the informal and service sectors, making up about 78% of employees. Micro, small and medium-sized enterprises, youth, migrants, people who have been forcibly 108

Opportunity in every

The COVID-19 pandemic has deepened the financial and economic chasms between men and women, yet opportunities exist to strengthen the gender lens when developing emergency and recovery responses and aim towards a ‘better normal’ than that which came before Alfred Hannig, Executive Director, Alliance for Financial Inclusion

displaced and other disadvantaged groups have also been affected, as they often work in the informal sector and may fall outside the scope of government economic support. These groups are characterised by limited savings and capacity to cope with periods of inactivity, and a lack of access to income substitution mechanisms, such as unemployment insurance. FINANCIAL INTERVENTIONS We therefore see a case for policymakers to accelerate financial inclusion interventions, so that efforts benefit even the informal sector to quicken the recovery process. The crisis is not over yet and we are on this road together. Yet with every crisis there is also opportunity. First, in these extraordinary times, we see how movement restrictions offer opportunities for digital finance services by responding fast, accurately and immediately. Policymakers need to sustain this growth through smart policies, enabling regulations and investment in infrastructure, such as digital identities and interoperable payment systems. Second, this crisis also offers opportunities to incorporate inclusive green finance into a recovery that ushers in the dawn of a ‘new economy’ that is green,

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

Financial inclusion after COVID-19 can unlock and further drive women’s economic participation and enable transformative opportunities while leaving no one behind”

78%

of workers in the informal and service sectors are women

resilient and socially inclusive. Building resilience for future crises and risks, such as climate change, can be achieved by investing in low carbon economies and in the well-being of the most vulnerable. For people at the base of the economic pyramid, savings and benefits through a green recovery include climate-smart agriculture, energy-efficient products, renewable energy sources and job creation. Third, we see opportunities to strengthen the gender lens when developing emergency and recovery responses. Financial inclusion after COVID-19 can unlock and further drive women’s economic participation and enable transformative opportunities while leaving no one behind. Achieving these opportunities allows us to aim for a ‘better normal’ compared both globalgovernanceproject.org

ALFRED HANNIG Alfred Hannig is the executive director of the Alliance for Financial Inclusion. Before officially launching the alliance in 2008, he held management, policy advisory, training and research positions, including assignments with Bank Indonesia, the Bank of Uganda and Superintendencia de Bancos in Bolivia. He led the Financial Systems Development Unit at Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit and also served with Germany’s Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development. Dr Hannig also represented Germany for the Consultative Group to Assist the Poor. Twitter afi-global.org

to the peak of this crisis and to what we were used to before the outbreak. Using the term coined by Benjamin Diokno, governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, our goal should be a ‘new economy’. Regulators should draw the right conclusions from what we have learned so far. The future of financial inclusion and a broader recovery will continue to be shaped by technology. Regulators must ensure that new and emerging risks are used in responsible, safe and sustainable manners that break down barriers and empower the most vulnerable. Further exclusion is not an option. Developing countries should have sufficient fiscal headroom – through lending facilities and debt relief – to do what is necessary to stimulate their economies and ensure an inclusive recovery. The G20 must confront growing isolationism and nationalism and build a vision of a collective global response to public health and economic policies. With the virus spreading rapidly across national borders, it is important that all countries have equitable access to treatments and vaccines as part of an inclusive global response.

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8 SCALING UP SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

G20 performance on

development When it comes to development, fewer conclusions and commitments mean higher compliance – and linking development to the subjects at the core of G20 governance leads to better outcomes Sonja Dobson, G20 Research Group

audi Arabia as host of the 2020 Riyadh Summit has set three objectives: empowering people, safeguarding the planet and shaping new frontiers. All are based on sustainable development, including fast-tracking the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. They build on a core subject of G20 summitry since its start, on which its performance has generally grown. CONCLUSIONS Since 2008, G20 leaders have devoted an average of a quarter of the words in their communiqués to development. They began at Washington in 2008 with 18%, rising in 2009 to 28% at London and

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25% at Pittsburgh, then in 2010 to 35% at Toronto and a peak of 9,195 words for 58% at Seoul. As the G20 agenda expanded, development fell to 18% at Cannes in 2011, rose to 32% at Los Cabos in 2012 and dropped after 2013 to reach 16% at Antalya in 2015. It rose to 25% at Hangzhou in 2016 and slid from 2017 down to 662 words for 10% at Osaka in 2019. COMMITMENTS These conclusions contained 296 commitments, making development the third highest subject after macroeconomic policy with 476 and financial regulation with 350. There was an average of 21 commitments, or 11% of the total, on development at each summit. Washington in 2008 produced four (4%) commitments, London in 2009 produced 15 (12%), Pittsburgh in 2009 produced nine (7%) and Toronto in 2010 produced eight (13%). Then Seoul in 2010 surged to 23 (14%). There were 17 commitments (6%) in 2011, 10 (6%) in 2012 and a spike to 50 (18%) at St Petersburg in 2013. They dropped to 20 (10%) at Brisbane in 2014, 20 (18%) at Antalya in 2015 and only 18 (8%) at Hangzhou in 2016. Hamburg in 2017 surged to an all-time high of 75 (14%), followed by a plunge to an all-time low of three (2%) at Buenos Aires in 2018, before rising to 24 (17%) at Osaka in 2019. COMPLIANCE According to assessments of 52 development commitments by the G20 Research Group, compliance averaged

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

296

commitments on development to date

67%

Average compliance on development commitments

�⁄₄

words in communiqués devoted to development, on average

67%, or 4% below the all-subject average of 71%. Compliance started strong at 90% for the commitments made at Washington in 2008, but plummeted to 58% for London in 2009 and 63% for Pittsburgh in 2009. Compliance was stable in 2010 and 2011,

with compliance of 68% for Toronto, 65% for Seoul and 67% for Cannes. It jumped to 89% for 2012, plunged to an all-time low of 52% for 2013, rose to 64% for 2014 and 2015 each, soared to an all-time high of 93% for Hangzhou in 2016, and declined to 79% for 2017 and 73% for 2018.

Overall, compliance on development was led by the United Kingdom at 88%. Argentina came last at 45%. CAUSES OF COMPLIANCE The first cause of compliance is the number and proportion of words and

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SCALING UP XYXYYXYXYYXYYXYYX YXYYXYXYYXYYXYYXYYXYYXY SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

The leaders should make fewer commitments on development and more that reference financial regulation, macroeconomics, trade and climate change”

commitments on development at the summit. Fewer conclusions and commitments coincide with higher compliance. The seven summits with compliance above 80% averaged 3,205 words or 23%. The six summits with compliance below 61% averaged 4,216 words or 29%. Compliance was higher by 16% with commitments containing highly binding verbs. It was higher by 10% when linking development to other subjects (led by financial regulation, macroeconomic policy, trade, infrastructure and climate change), by 8% referring to a past summit, by 10% referring to the Sustainable Development Goals and by 21% referring to digitalisation. In particular, the three assessed commitments that specified the SDGs averaged 77%, compared to the 67% for the other 49. The one commitment that referenced digitalisation averaged 88% and the 51 without averaged 67%. The catalysts that correlate with lower compliance include a reference to the core or other international organisation, a multi-year or one-year timetable, a specific target level, money mobilised and the Millennium Development Goals. CORRECTIONS To increase compliance with their development commitments, Riyadh’s G20 leaders can thus use highly binding verbs that signal their collective political will, link development to the 112

SONJA DOBSON Sonja Dobson holds a master’s degree in conflict studies and human rights from Utrecht University. She has worked with the G20, G7 and BRICS Research Groups since 2015, and has served as a compliance director for all three groups. She attended the University of Toronto and graduated with a bachelor of arts and science in African studies and political science. Twitter @SAT_Dobson  www.g20.utoronto.ca

subjects at the classic and evolving core of G20 governance, and refer to their past summits, because progress in development benefits from dedicated repetition. Leaders can specifically invoke the 2030 Agenda and its SDGs. The number of development commitments should take up a small portion of the total

they make. The leaders should make fewer commitments on development and more that reference financial regulation, macroeconomics, trade and climate change. They can avoid referring to the World Bank or other international organisations, timetables, targets or money mobilised.

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

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www.psipw.org www.psipw.org www.psipw.org www.psipw.org Nominations Nominations Nominations Nominations are are are open open are open open forfor for the the for the 10th the 10th 10th Award. 10th Award. Award. Award. Nominations Nominations Nominations Nominations email: email: email: email: info@psipw.org info@psipw.org info@psipw.org info@psipw.org can can can becan be be made made made be made online online online online until until until 31 until 31 December 31December 31 December December 2021. 2021. 2021. 2021.

Interview with Achim Steiner, Administrator, United Nations Development Programme

A critical moment

Contrast between the modern buildings and Paraisópolis, one slum of São Paulo in Brazil. Example of gentrification in the city.

Before the pandemic, what progress in an industrialised country as in a The Saudi G20 presidency had been made on the Sustainable developing country. Moreover, the SDGs Development Goals (SDGs)? agenda unapologetically have emerged as a lens for the private Before the pandemic, the world as a to look at a larger socio-economic focuses on the future, but first sector whole was making notable progress. reality – beyond bottom lines. We saw the greatest gains on SDG 9: the G20 must emerge from Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure In many ways, the SDGs have come to the present. It has a global and SDG 1: No Poverty. In the encapsulate the challenges of our time, broader sense, just look to the United responsibility to act decisively and a global plan to tackle them. Nations Development Programme’s has progress been set back by – and prevent the rest of the How Multidimensional Poverty Index – 271 COVID-19? million people were lifted out of poverty world from facing paralysis The pandemic reveals the legacy of failed in India alone in just a 10-year period. development including the underlying The big change is the ways the SDGs have conditions of continued inequality and shifted how we think about and invest in development. unsustainability. Indeed, UNDP anticipates that global We can see the SDGs as a ‘risk map’ of the 21st century, human development, a combination of the world’s reflected in the 17 areas where we must work together. education, health and income, will decline this year for We can also recognise them as a means to think the first time since 1990. systemically about how we can best leverage a dollar, Global disparities are more apparent than ever. yen or rupiah to address critical areas such as electricity Look to the fact that Pakistan and Kenya can pay up access or environmental degradation. Indeed, the SDGs to 64 times as much as the United States to raise a recognise you have to connect ‘investments’ in one goal one-year bond during a crisis. Half the world lacks to the others to create multiple dividends. social protection or health care and 750 million people Another key element is that the SDGs are a universal globally remain unconnected: unable to access online agenda. Development depends as much on decisions learning or work from home. 114

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SCALING UP SUSTAINABLE EMPOWERING WOMEN DEVELOPMENT Yet now is also a time when countries are rethinking strategic investments. Bets are being made on how they transform the investment landscape and therefore accelerate progress on the SDGs. How has UNDP been helping countries respond to the pandemic? The UN’s response to COVID-19 includes a large-scale, coordinated and comprehensive health response, guided by the World Health Organization, the humanitarian response led by UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs and the socio-economic response, which is led by UNDP. Just weeks after the outbreak of the COVID-19 crisis, UNDP’s partners worked with us to reprogramme their funds. Donors and fresh funding mobilised almost $750 million to deploy on the ground. UNDP’s Rapid Response Facility reached approximately 100 countries in the first weeks of operation. That enabled UNDP to help countries prepare, respond and recover in the face of COVID-19 – everything from procuring critical medical supplies to applying e-health and e-government platforms to ensure the full business continuity of governments across the globe. Indeed, the UNDP Accelerator Labs were also a vital asset for countries at this critical time. Their surprising results included everything from developing a mobile app to track the virus in Cabo Verde to helping roll out robots in COVID-19 treatment centres in Rwanda to minimise contact between patients and health workers. How are you helping countries look beyond the pandemic? In leading the UN’s socio-economic response to the pandemic, UNDP is working with UN country teams and our partners to conduct assessments of impact in 135 countries. These assessments provide critical advice to policymakers and help countries formulate vital response plans. Informed by this engagement, UNDP’s ‘Offer 2.0’, entitled Beyond Recovery, Towards 2030, focuses on helping countries use this opportunity to build forward better from the pandemic. It concentrates on four key areas: governance, focused on continuity and functionality but also protecting human rights and the rule of law; social protection, looking at genderdisaggregated data and the most vulnerable to identify and reach them; driving forward a green economy, with transformational investments globalgovernanceproject.org

The UNDP anticipates that global human development, a combination of the world’s education, health and income, will decline this year for the first time since 1990” that create new jobs, decarbonise economies and accelerate efforts to tackle climate change; and digital disruption, drawing on the UNDP Digital Strategy – which includes engaging with digital payment and e-commerce systems with a focus on supporting women-run small and medium enterprises and closing the digital divide for marginalised populations.

ACHIM STEINER Achim Steiner became the administrator of the United Nations Development Programme in 2017. He is also vice-chair of the UN Sustainable Development Group. He was previously director of the Oxford Martin School and professorial fellow of Balliol College, University of Oxford. Mr Steiner led the United Nations Environment Programme from 2006 to 2016 and was also director-general of the UN office at Nairobi. Other notable positions include director-general of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature and secretary-general of the World Commission on Dams. Twitter @Asteiner ‫ ‏‬ undp.org

How do high-level meetings spur leaders to meet the SDGs? The UN’s 75th anniversary was always meant to be a moment to pivot. The United Nations of the past cannot be the United Nations of the future. It was notable that more world leaders addressed the UN General Assembly in 2020 than ever before. That was a concrete show of support to the work of the UN – with a call to accelerate its evolution. Indeed, we may come out of this dark moment with a bolder, more focused view of where to go. How can the G20 leaders help? Saudi’s G20 presidency agenda unapologetically focuses on the future. So the question is whether the G20 will be the ‘catalytic actor’, which destiny condemns it to be right now. Without the G20 mustering 80% of the world’s economic potential to act, the rest of the world faces paralysis. The G20 has enormous responsibility not to let differences prevail. Those few countries must find the strength and patience to act decisively as the rest of the world watches at this critical moment.

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9 21ST-CENTURY EDUCATION

Global problems require global solutions, and Saudi Arabia has taken the lead in mitigating the impact of COVID-19 on education systems and encouraging international collaboration to advance education worldwide

Working together for education continuity

Hamad Mohammed Al-Sheikh, Minister of Education, Saudi Arabia

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n the aspirational theme “Realising Opportunities of the 21st Century for All,” the Saudi G20 presidency has affirmed its objective to advance human capabilities and prepare future generations for today and long into the future. The G20 education ministers have built on this theme, highlighting the G20’s commitment to education by furthering discussions first held in Argentina in 2018, which place human capital development at the core. For this year’s agenda, the education workstream focused on three priorities: •

•

Early childhood education. G20 education officials recognised the fundamental role of early childhood education in developing global competence and 21st-century skills. Access to early childhood education promotes equity and inclusion among students and encourages lifelong learning. The education workstream agreed on a study on the Use of Digital Technologies for the Education and Development of Young Children: Distance Learning during the COVID-19 Pandemic. Internationalisation in education. G20 education officials acknowledged the importance of developing a flexible mechanism for bringing international and intercultural knowledge, skills and attitudes into K–12 and higher education classrooms in ways that respect local, regional and national standards. The officials also indicated that internationalisation cultivates global citizens and prepares them for an interconnected world. The education workstream agreed on the Report on Internationalization in Education. Education continuity in times of crisis. G20 education officials responded swiftly to the disruption in education caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The education ministers held the Extraordinary Ministerial Virtual Meeting on 27 June 2020. At that meeting, they expressed their commitment to sharing “best practices, experiences, and lessons learned to support education and learning continuity, along with resilience, in times of crisis” and to working “towards stronger and more innovative approaches to build resilience into our education systems and improve teaching and learning”.

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G20 education officials indicated that internationalisation cultivates global citizens and prepares them for an interconnected world”

HAMAD MOHAMMED AL-SHEIKH His Excellency Dr Hamad Mohammed Al-Sheikh is Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Education and a member of the Saudi Council of Ministers, the Saudi Council of Economic and Development Affairs and many Supreme and ministerial committees at the Royal Court. He also chairs many higher education councils and committees. Dr Hamad served as an adviser at the Royal Court, a vice minister of education, the vice-rector for development and quality at King Saud University, and the dean of King Abdullah Institute for Research and Consulting Studies.  moe.gov.sa

NAVIGATING DISRUPTIONS Since the Extraordinary Meeting, Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Education has emphasised the kind of collaborative, forward-looking work called for by the G20 education ministers. The MOE was required to meet the educational needs of six million Saudi students returning to what can only be described as an exceptional school year via remote learning. It invested in teacher training, student and parent support systems, and innovative distance learning tools. The Madrasati – “my school” – platform was developed to ensure the continuity of education under the motto “My school is my home”. Saudi Arabia also successfully navigated the pandemic disruptions by swiftly charting an innovative approach for the Education Working Group to address its priorities. It is often said that global problems require global solutions. Saudi Arabia took the lead in responding to and mitigating the global COVID-19 pandemic’s unprecedented impact on education systems by recognising the fundamental role that education plays in protecting lives and livelihoods, restoring growth, and enabling substantial recoveries. Saudi Arabia’s MOE will now build on the education workstream’s success, encouraging international collaboration and monitoring research on the use of digital technologies with young learners in the pandemic context. Furthermore, the G20 workstream will continue to cooperate, fully living into the commitment made in the ministers’ communiqué by “encouraging international collaboration and the sharing of best practices to advance education systems across the globe”.

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Ministry of Culture

Culture: a catalyst for economic prosperity HH Prince Badr bin Abdullah bin Mohammed bin Farhan Al-Saud, Minister of Culture, Saudi Arabia

hen COVID-19 struck earlier this year, it shone a spotlight on economic areas that could help to build stronger, more resilient economies – a cornerstone of Saudi Arabia’s G20 agenda. Culture is an important factor in building understanding among peoples and civilizations. It’s also a catalyst for global economic growth. The pandemic highlighted the need for policymakers to bring the cultural economy – a sector that includes cinema, national heritage sites, art and cuisine, books and museums – to the forefront of the global economic discussion. On 4 November, Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Culture hosted the first ever Joint Meeting for Ministers of Culture, co-chaired by Saudi minister of culture HH Prince Badr bin Abdullah bin Mohammed bin Farhan Al-Saud and Dario Franceschini, Italian minister of cultural heritage and activities and tourism. The meeting was organised in conjunction with the G20 Saudi Secretariat as part of the International Conferences Program, honouring the Saudi G20 presidency under the theme “The Rise of the Cultural Economy: A New Paradigm”.

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Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Culture recently hosted the first ever meeting of G20 culture ministers. They pledged to support and advance the global cultural economy – valued at $2.3 trillion – and agreed to promote cultural dialogue into the broader context of international development

One of AlUla’s most famous settlements is the Nabateans, whose carved tombs are considered Saudi Arabia’s first UNESCO World Heritage Site

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

ADVOCACY

United by their common belief in the power of culture to reduce differences, enhance diversity and create value, G20 cultural leaders, partner countries and international organisations pledged their support to advancing the cultural economy. The presence of the ministers on the margins of Saudi Arabia’s G20 presidency demonstrated a shared belief in the vital role culture plays in driving global prosperity. Heritage preservation, sustainable development and the promotion of creative industries were discussed, as was the employment of new technologies, developing digital platforms for artistic expression and making cultural resources more easily accessible so that they can be an engine for economic growth. Although the COVID-19 pandemic closed economies and forced people to drastically alter their lives, there were positive signs that provided hope. People continued to share ideas, create art and take tours of virtual museums and galleries. They watched internet stars on YouTube and streamed plays, operas and ballet. People increasingly went online to tap into cultural events and locations that were suddenly off limits, speeding up the pace of global cultural interconnectivity. As the world moved away from in-person activity, the appetite for creative expression only grew. Tech companies, institutions and governments quickly adapted to meet this demand. Saudi Arabia also played its part. Under the theme “Culture in Isolation”, the Ministry of Culture launched a digital culinary programme during the holy month of Ramadan and an e-learning platform for Arabic calligraphy and Islamic decorative arts. Saudi Arabia’s Royal Commission for AlUla created a video series – Explore AlUla in 360 – for the region’s historical landmarks.

PRINCE BADR BIN ABDULLAH BIN FARHAN AL-SAUD His Highness Prince Badr bin Abdullah bin Farhan Al-Saud was appointed in June 2018 by Royal Decree as Saudi Arabia’s first minister of culture. He also holds a number of leadership positions with entities in the cultural sector and is a member of several committees and boards tasked with delivering Vision 2030. Twitter @MOCSaudi  moc.gov.sa/en

A VALUABLE SECTOR Before the pandemic, the cultural economy had already emerged as an innovative industry with the potential for significant growth. The numbers speak for themselves. Annual revenue from the cultural and creative sectors is worth $2.25 trillion. Creative exports are valued at more than $250 billion. Worldwide, more than 30 million people are employed in related industries, and some forecasts put the contribution of the sector to global gross domestic product at around 10% in the near future. It is under these conditions that the Saudi presidency chose to elevate a cultural agenda during the Joint Meeting for Ministers of Culture. This is only the first stage of the journey, with the discussion set to continue during Italy’s presidency in 2021 and beyond. In Saudi Arabia, steps have been taken to develop this area of the economy. During the G20 meeting, the Ministry of Culture announced an initiative to establish a world-class centre dedicated to the management, restoration and protection of the Red Sea and the Arabian Gulf. The Heritage Commission will oversee relevant projects and award

Despite the increasing recognition of the importance of culture for social and economic development, more needs to be done to highlight the role that it can play in the global economy” globalgovernanceproject.org

Ministry of Culture

scholarships and research grants for the initiative. The goal is to take research and turn it into actionable policies. Other new initiatives will see the establishment of world-class heritage museums, complementing the five sites already registered on the list of UNESCO World Heritage Sites. This work aligns with Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, which stresses the importance of culture and heritage in its three pillars with the aim to create a vibrant society, a thriving economy and an ambitious nation. Creative interaction among nations has shaped cultural heritage. Preserving it today requires continued effective collaboration among countries. Yet despite the increasing recognition of the importance of culture for social and economic development, more needs to be done to highlight the role that it plays in the global economy. With the unprecedented challenges the world faces today, amid the lack of sustainable and equitable economic development around the world, the cultural economy is increasingly important. The onus is on us all to preserve our shared heritage for future generations and to produce and disseminate culture in a sustainable manner. And with commitment from the G20 members – and its partners worldwide – to strengthen cultural engagement, the cultural economy can be a key part of the global recovery.

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Multilateralism after COVID-19: a necessity, not a choice Audrey Azoulay, Director-General, UNESCO

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he COVID-19 pandemic is “the most challenging crisis we have faced since the Second World War”, according to United Nations secretary-general António Guterres. As the virus spread across the globe, the health crisis became a systemic crisis, affecting all aspects of our societies. In response, UNESCO put in place a wide range of solutions, in record time and in all the areas covered by our mandate. First, the crisis closed schools and universities in more than 190 countries, preventing 1.5 billion learners from attending. Schools are not only essential for education; they also play a key role in nutrition and personal development – and not all young people are equal in this respect. In distance learning, for instance, 826 million youth lack access to a computer or the internet. Digital technologies therefore risk widening existing inequalities, by creating two classes of students – those with, and those without. This is why UNESCO launched the Global Education Coalition, bringing together more than 140 partners from the public and private sectors to develop distance learning solutions in response to needs in the field. In more than 80 countries, we worked to improve access to digital technologies, train teachers, and develop learning via radio and television, without losing sight of our focus on girls’ education. However, the education crisis, like the health crisis, is far from over. The economic recession alone will likely lead to a $210 billion drop in public spending on education in 2020. The G20’s action for education, which UNESCO supports, is therefore essential for an entire generation. We cannot let the current crisis affect the progress we have worked so hard to achieve in recent decades. We cannot leave behind the many girls who risk never

The current global crisis must not be a temptation to turn inwards; rather, it must be an opportunity to join forces and rebuild the world we want – starting with multilateral cooperation that defends global common goods

returning to school. Nor can we let unequal access to information widen existing gaps between genders, social classes and countries. It is up to us to ensure that this generation of children is not sacrificed. THREATS TO THE CULTURAL SECTOR Economic uncertainty and social vulnerability also threaten those who make a living through culture. According to the International Labour Organization, 5.4% of the economically active population worked in this sector in 2015 – and this figure is likely to be even higher today. Let us be clear: without culture, there will be no recovery. From the economic, social and anthropological perspectives, culture is essential, because it creates meaning and builds brighter futures. But in today’s interconnected world, there will also be no recovery without concerted action. This means working together at the local, national, regional and international levels. It means working with artists and cultural professionals to ensure that transformations affecting the sector – including the new role played by digital giants – take place for, rather than against, artists. UNESCO has begun preparing for this recovery, by organising ResiliArt debates around the world. These debates aim to develop innovative solutions that address real needs, building on the experience of UNESCO’s 246 Creative Cities. There have already been 163 debates in 64 countries with the aim of supporting the cultural sector after COVID-19. This pandemic is also a reminder of the importance

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

190 countries closed their schools in response to COVID-19

826m

From the economic, social and anthropological perspectives, culture is essential, because it creates meaning and builds brighter futures”

youth lack access to a computer or the internet

210bn

drop in public spending on education expected in 2020 due to the economic recession

AUDREY AZOULAY Audrey Azoulay was elected director-general of UNESCO in 2017. A graduate of France’s École Nationale d’Administration and of the Paris Institut d’Études Politiques, she has worked in the culture sector since the start of her professional career, focusing on the funding of French public broadcasting and on reforming and modernising France’s film support system. She has also served the European Commission, providing her expertise on issues concerning culture and communication. Twitter @AAzoulay  unesco.org

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of investing in research. As the past months have shown, we can achieve real results when we have the right resources, free-flowing information and rigorous scientific protocols. Never before have we discovered so much about a virus in so little time. Indeed, collective intelligence can achieve great things, when it has the resources to do so. This is one of the lessons we must learn if we are to rise to the challenges of climate change and biodiversity collapse. To address these issues, and the pandemic, scientific cooperation is our best chance. This is why UNESCO and its 193 member states are currently working on the Recommendation on Open Science, to support scientific cooperation and facilitate access to the results of research. Finally, the pandemic has underlined our need for shared ethical principles. The creation of contact tracing and monitoring applications has strengthened UNESCO’s determination to develop the first global standard-setting instrument on the ethics of artificial intelligence. This crisis must not be a temptation to turn inwards. It must be an opportunity to join forces and rebuild the world we want. UNESCO and the G20 share this vision for multilateral cooperation, which is now a necessity, not a choice. Twelve years ago, G20 leaders showed that they were able to respond effectively to crises by developing concerted solutions. They now have a second chance to reaffirm this role, by defending global common goods – education, culture, science and communication and information. November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

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A HEALTHY WORLD

G20 performance on

climate change

Time is running out to meet the Paris Agreement’s target to limit global warming. To fulfil its promises, the G20 – responsible for most of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions – needs to make radical systemic change G20 performance on climate change, 2008–19 100

Compliance (%)

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Conclusions (% words)

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Brittaney Warren, Director of Compliance, G20 Research Group

s a result of human activities, Earth’s life support systems are failing. An ‘all hands on deck’ approach is needed to meet the Paris Agreement’s target to limit the increase in global warming to below 2°C by 2030. This includes the G20, which accounts for about 80% of greenhouse gas emissions. The G20 has governed climate change since its first summit in 2008, but its emissions have risen. How can it improve its commitments and compliance to achieve net-zero emissions in the little time that is left? CONCLUSIONS G20 leaders dedicated just 2% of their communiqué to climate change at Washington in November 2008 and 1% at London in April 2009. At Pittsburgh in September 2009 the portion rose to 10%. It fell to 7% at Toronto in June 2020, then rose again to 13% at Seoul in November 2010. The portion stayed below 10% until after the United Nations’ Paris Agreement on climate change was signed in December 2015. At the next G20 summit, in Hangzhou in 2016, the portion rose to 11% and to 15% at Hamburg in 2017. At Buenos Aires in 2018 it dipped to 6%, before rising to peak at 24% at Osaka in 2019. COMMITMENTS From 2008 to 2019, G20 leaders made 91 climate commitments, with a slight but insignificant rise over time. Climate commitments averaged 3% of the total at each summit. None were made on climate at Washington. At London and Pittsburgh they started at 2%, rising to 5% in 2010, and staying below 5% from 2011 to 2018, with a low of 1% at Hangzhou in 2016. At Osaka in 2019 they peaked at 9%. COMPLIANCE Among the 33 climate commitments assessed for compliance by the G20 Research Group, compliance averaged 68%, just below the G20’s all-subject compliance average of 71%. Climate compliance rose a little over time, but irregularly: London averaged 45%, Pittsburgh 93%, Toronto 71% and Seoul 53%. Cannes in 2011 averaged 69%, Los Cabos 80%, St Petersburg 42%, Brisbane 76% and Antalya 85%. After the Paris Agreement in December 2015, Hangzhou had 79%, Hamburg 68% and Buenos Aires 78%. For Osaka in 2019, interim compliance was 85%. CAUSES AND CORRECTIONS This compliance pattern suggests several corrections that G20 leaders can make to improve their performance. They can increase compliance by producing fewer but more ambitious climate conclusions and commitments, holding meetings of environment and climate change ministers, and crafting commitments with strong politically binding language that references the UN Framework globalgovernanceproject.org

BRITTANEY WARREN Brittaney Warren is the director of compliance and lead researcher on climate change for the G20 Research Group, the G7 Research Group and the BRICS Research Group at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at Trinity College in the University of Toronto. She has published on accountability measures in summit commitments, the G20 and G7’s compliance and governance of climate change, and the G20’s governance of digitalisation. She holds a master’s degree in environmental studies from York University. Twitter @brittaneywarren  www.g20.utoronto.ca

80% of global greenhouse gas emissions are accounted for by G20 countries

68% Average compliance on assessed climate commitments

Convention on Climate Change and that stipulate timelines of six months or less. The highest average compliance came from summits with an average of 10% of words on climate (1,120-word average), and the lowest compliance came from those with 8% of words (1,840-word average). Similarly, the highest compliance came from summits with an average 2% of commitments on climate (four commitments on average), while the lowest compliance came from those averaging 4% (three commitments on average). The ‘fewer for focus’ with greater ambition is the message here. If the G20 fully complied with its one, repeated commitment to phase out fossil fuel subsidies, global carbon dioxide emissions could drop by 20%. The 2019 Japan presidency held the G20’s first meeting of environment ministers (held jointly with energy ministers), which supported the high interim compliance average of 85% from the Osaka Summit. Commitments with strong politically binding language, such as ‘we commit’, averaged 77% compliance. Commitments with less strong language, such as ‘we reiterate’, averaged only 66%. Commitments explicitly referencing the UNFCCC averaged 85%, and those that did not averaged only 65%. One commitment with a multi-year timetable averaged 43% compliance. The four commitments with a timetable of six months or less averaged 85% compliance and came before key UN summits. They show high G20 compliance before UNFCCC summits and lower compliance after them. The highest compliance came on climate commitments linked to sustainable development at 87% and to economic growth at 74%. Those on forests had 65%, the ozone layer 48% and clean energy 46%. Climate commitments that mobilised money had 60%. Ultimately, to achieve net-zero emissions, radical systemic change is needed.

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WOMEN AEMPOWERING HEALTHY WORLD

Safeguarding the planet is a key pillar of the Saudi G20 presidency, with targeted efforts under way to protect and advance human well-being, biodiversity and planetary health

Collective efforts on common interests

audi Arabia assumed the G20 presidency with an ambitious agenda, one pillar of which is “Safeguarding the Planet” by fostering collective efforts to protect our common interests. The issues of the environment, water and agriculture have been central to the presidency’s agenda. In this regard, it put forward a critical set of priorities centred on advancing water and food security and nutrition, human health and well-being, biodiversity, planetary health, inclusive economic growth and sustainable development. These priorities acquired

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Abdulrahman A A AlFadley, Minister of Environment, Water and Agriculture, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

heightened importance during the COVID-19 crisis. The pandemic has reminded us not only of our mutual vulnerability and interdependence, but also that together we can take bold actions to restore growth and recover stronger. For instance, the pandemic has exposed vulnerabilities in our domestic and international food supply chains, and has hurt farmers, workers, and small-, medium- and large-scale agri-food businesses. The pandemic is

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

also projected to reduce investments in the water sector as limited resources are diverted elsewhere, as well as decrease the availability of water. Moreover, the United Nations has estimated that an additional 135 million people currently suffer from famine due to the pandemic. These considerable challenges are exacerbated by environmental conditions, including soil degradation and water scarcity. G20 agriculture ministers have shown their commitment to working together to ensure the resilience of the entire sector and food supply system. This includes developing a statement to enhance implementation of responsible investment in agriculture, which could benefit smallholders and agricultural workers around the globe. In addition, the ministers are addressing food loss and waste and have supported innovative technologies and practices, including farmer-to-farmer skills sharing, technical assistance and the transfer of technology. The G20 agriculture ministers are especially committed to mounting an inclusive response that supports the most vulnerable, including the food insecure, women, youth and the elderly. WATER SECURITY FOR ALL Water ministers and water representatives of G20 members have promoted sustainable and resilient global water systems through policies, investment, technology and the alignment of international efforts. Reducing water stress is closely linked to promoting food security, developing cleaner energy and combatting environmental degradation. The Water Best Practices Roadmap and the Water Coordination and Integration Roadmap compile countries’ best practices and experiences on several water-related issues and suggest activities and actions to be taken within the G20 to optimise their impacts. G20 environment ministers are particularly focused on land and coral reef degradation. Land degradation and the destruction of natural habitats associated with it have significant impacts not only on biodiversity and food security, but also

135m

more people are enduring famine as a result of COVID-19 globalgovernanceproject.org

The pandemic has reminded us not only of our mutual vulnerability and interdependence, but also that together we can take bold actions to restore growth and recover stronger”

on climate resilience, social well-being and sustainable development. Under the Saudi presidency, the launch of the Global Initiative on Reducing Land Degradation and Enhancing Conservation of Terrestrial Habitats aims to restore degraded land, conserve land, halt habitat loss, fragmentation and land degradation, and to promote integrated, sustainable and resilient land management. Another initiative aims to protect and restore coral reefs. In this regard, the Saudi presidency has introduced the Global Coral Reef R&D Accelerator Platform to focus on

accelerating international research and development of coral reefs. The Saudi G20 presidency is committed to working with all counterparts to advance the commitments of G20 leaders to promote a transparent, robust, coordinated, large-scale and science-based global response in the spirit of solidarity. We are pleased to have had the opportunity to work with our counterparts from G20 members and other stakeholders. We look forward to continuing that coordination and advancing further progress beyond our presidency.

ABDULRAHMAN ABDULMOHSEN A ALFADLEY His Excellency Abdulrahman Abdulmohsen A AlFadley is the minister of environment, water and agriculture for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. He also chairs the Saudi Grains Organization, the Saudi Irrigation Organization, the Agricultural Development Fund, the General Authority for Meteorology and Environment Protection, the Saudi Wildlife Authority and the Saline Water Conversion Corporation and the National Water Company. Before his appointment as minister, he was CEO of Almarai Company.  mewa.gov.sa/en

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Inger Andersen, United Nations Under Secretary-General and Executive Director, UN Environment Programme

Nature: our greatest ally

The world is seeking a sustainable recovery from the pandemic, and the answers lie in nature. G20 members, as the powerhouses of the global economy, must lead the way in restoring the natural world 126

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A HEALTHY WORLD

s the economic damage of the COVID-19 pandemic mounts, G20 members are putting unprecedented amounts of public money into recovery. The first wave of action was, rightly, fiscal: protecting people, jobs and companies. Now, though, it is time to gear up the green recovery. As G20 leaders gather for their Riyadh Summit, they must prioritise measures that put conserving and restoring nature at the heart of our economies. The pandemic has shown us that human well-being is closely linked to the health of nature, which is under assault from the triple planetary crisis of climate change, ecosystem loss, and pollution and waste. COVID-19 has claimed many lives and damaged economies, but the full bill of the triple crisis stretches far beyond the pandemic. More than half of global gross domestic product has a high or moderately high dependency on nature. Yet climate change, unsustainable agricultural intensification and unsustainable resource use and extraction and so much more are eroding this economic base. The Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services in 2018 found that land degradation and biodiversity loss were costing the world 10% of its GDP each year in lost ecosystems services such as preventing harmful nutrient run-off into streams or decreasing the effects of floods. This is a make or break moment. ANSWERS IN HISTORY So, how can we combine the recovery from COVID-19 with restoring nature? There are some answers in history. In 1933, US president Franklin D Roosevelt signed an executive order allocating $10 million for emergency conservation work under the New Deal, which put unemployed Americans to work. When Korea was struggling with famine and a refugee crisis in the 1950s, the government restored forests and agricultural landscapes, which created hundreds of thousands of rural jobs. Today, Korea’s forest cover has doubled and the country has the 14th highest GDP in the world. Since those efforts, the range of tools we can deploy has grown. G20 members, representing almost 80% of the global economy and the vast majority of its greenhouse gas emissions, can use those tools to seize the green transition opportunities in climate, nature, desertification, pollution and waste. Nature-based solutions can provide a third of the climate action needed by 2030 – and it is encouraging to see these solutions among Saudi Arabia’s G20 priorities. Each dollar invested in ecosystem restoration can generate over nine dollars in ecosystem services and livelihood benefits. The business opportunities from transforming the food, land and ocean use system could generate $3.6 trillion in additional revenues or cost savings by 2030 and create 191 million new jobs. Despite this clear economic argument, investment and incentive structures work against nature. Since 2010, only $20 billion has gone to reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, and over one hundred times more went to backing land-use activities that could at times be driving deforestation. Fossil fuel globalgovernanceproject.org

INGER ANDERSEN Inger Andersen is an under secretary-general of the United Nations and the executive director of the UN Environment Programme. Between January 2015 and May 2019, she was the director-general of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Ms Andersen has more than 30 years of experience in international development economics, environmental sustainability and policy making and has held various leadership roles at the World Bank and United Nations. Twitter @unenvironment  unenvironment.org

50%

of global GDP has a high or moderately high dependency on nature

invested in ecosystem restoration can generate +$9 in ecosystem services and livelihood benefits

3.6 trillion

could be generated from business opportunities in transforming the food, land and ocean use system by 2030

subsidies are over $500 billion annually; nature-based mitigation efforts receive a fraction of this sum. Our taxpayer money is going to the wrong places. GREEN STRINGS ATTACHED We need nature-positive recovery packages. Bailouts with green strings attached. Investments in nature-based solutions, sustainable agriculture, renewables, conservation and green infrastructure. An end to fossil fuel subsidies and the introduction of more ambitious and aligned carbon taxes. We have seen some of these green measures emerge recently – from the European Union to Pakistan, from Barbados to Senegal. But we need to see a more comprehensive deployment of the stimulus packages in favour of a sustainable and green future. Another strand is to mainstream nature and the cost of environmental degradation into economic valuations. GDP does not do this, so we must turn to indicators such as the Inclusive Wealth Index. In the last Inclusive Wealth report, the UN Environment Programme found that natural capital was falling at 0.7% each year globally even while produced and human capital grew. These are the kind of datasets policymakers need to make the correct decisions. The coming decade can be a turning point, but only if green stimulus packages back the Sustainable Development Goals, the Paris Agreement and the Post-2020 Biodiversity Framework. This means stretching nationally determined contributions to invest in nature’s infrastructure and using the upcoming UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration to drive habitat restoration activities. This pandemic has hit hard, but the aftermath gives us a window to create nature-positive societies that enable all of humanity to thrive. G20 members, as the powerhouses that drive the world economy, can lead the way. This starts with the Riyadh Summit with a stronger commitment to a healthy natural world.

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A HEALTHY WORLD

Demanding decisive leadership on climate action

The action – and inaction – of G20 members on climate change has repercussions around the world. In this uniquely challenging year, the world needs an equally unique, firm and committed response from G20 leaders to the most severe threat facing us today Patricia Espinosa Cantellano, Executive Secretary to the UNFCCC

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hroughout 2020, the world has faced one of its most challenging years in recent memory. The COVID-19 pandemic reached practically every country, threatening the lives of billions of people. The measures adopted by governments and societies to protect people’s health and well-being have led to the most severe global recession in nearly a century, shutting down businesses, destroying jobs and affecting livelihoods. The challenge has been formidable, but so has the collective response to overcome the pandemic. Governments have placed their confidence in scientific evidence and technical expertise. Medical

and healthcare professionals have worked tirelessly to protect the lives of the sick and vulnerable. Businesses have changed their everyday practices to concentrate on the safety of employees and the immediate needs of consumers. Societies have reassessed their priorities, harmonising personal freedom with collective well-being and social responsibility. HOPE FOR THE FUTURE The global response to the pandemic is a source of hope for the future that goes beyond the threat posed by COVID-19. It has highlighted the importance of science to our survival. It has shown that individuals are ready to make personal sacrifices for the benefit of society as a whole. It has proved that countries are ready to pull together for a common cause. Those same principles are needed to overcome the other urgent threat facing humanity: climate change. Surprisingly, the pandemic has opened a window of opportunity for countries to

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

20 000 Australian students gather in climate change protest rally, School Strike 4 Climate, and demand urgent action on climate change, Sydney, March 2019

We have advocated the adoption of projects that allow for climate adaptation, especially in more vulnerable countries. We have spurred developed countries to live up to their commitment to mobilise $100 billion every year, starting in 2020. Above all, we have continued to call for an economic recovery that is not a return to the past but a leap forward to the future. During this difficult and challenging year, the UNFCCC has been working vigorously to advance those central priorities in national, regional and global dialogues, reaching out to the public around the world to spread awareness and understanding of the existential threat posed by climate change, and carrying on the essential work from technical committees and working groups. Although it was necessary to postpone the 26th Conference of the Parties, this has not prevented relevant bodies from making progress in each of their crucial responsibilities. Much has been achieved over the past year, yet much remains to be done. The multilateral approach acknowledges the different responsibilities and capacities of countries, while providing a pathway to address the climate emergency globally. Two years ago, in Katowice, the global community laid down a solid foundation to implement the Paris Agreement, including rules to measure and report on efforts to cut emissions. There remain, however, pending issues that will need to be addressed during COP 26, particularly those that relate to cooperation among countries.

Holli / Shutterstock.com

PATRICIA ESPINOSA CANTELLANO

reshape the 21st-century economy so that people can live in a world that is clean and healthy, safe and just, and, above all, sustainable. The current crisis has given the world a chance to promote innovative and transformative ways of producing, transporting and consuming – in short, a way of living that responds to future needs, not past models. The United Nations has continued to work throughout the pandemic. The work of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change was never put on hold, since the climate emergency has not paused for COVID-19. We have carried on our efforts, resorting to every available technology at our disposal to fulfil our responsibilities. We have reminded governments of their duty to submit new or updated Nationally Determined Contributions before the end of the year. We have urged countries to raise, both individually and collectively, their level of ambition in order to achieve carbon neutrality by the middle of the century. globalgovernanceproject.org

Patricia Espinosa Cantellano took office as executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UN Climate Change) in 2016. She served as Mexico’s ambassador to Germany from 2012 to 2016 and from 2001 to 2002, and minister of foreign affairs from 2006 to 2012. She chaired the 16th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC leading to the adoption of the Cancun Agreements and was named by the UN secretary-general to the High-Level Panel of Eminent Persons on the Post-2015 Development Agenda. Twitter @PEspinosaC  unfccc.int

³⁄₄

of global greenhouse gas emissions accounted for by G20 countries

100bn

a year mobilised by developed countries for climate action, starting in 2020

THE G20’S ROLE The G20’s Riyadh Summit is an opportunity for key global leaders to reaffirm their commitment to climate action and to lead by example. G20 countries account for nearly three quarters of global greenhouse gas emissions. They are also responsible for much of the innovative thinking that can provide solutions in industry and technology to the mounting problems caused by climate change. The international community looks to the G20 to lead on some of the most important changes that must take place: energy transformation, decarbonisation, financial innovation to redirect the global economy towards a sustainable future and alignment of the private sector to the Paris Agreement. The action – and, indeed, the inaction – of G20 members has repercussions around the world. The world needs clear, decisive and unambiguous leadership in addressing climate change and promoting a green economy. The G20 is ideally positioned to provide it. Addressing climate change demands a profound transformation of economic models and social mores. Each country must embrace new ways of working, travelling and living. This change needs to start now, not in the distant or even the near future. In this uniquely challenging year, the international community expects an equally unique, firm and committed response from G20 leaders to the most severe threat facing the world today.

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WOMEN AEMPOWERING HEALTHY WORLD

Steps to protect our planet Safeguarding the planet is a key pillar of the Saudi G20 presidency, with targeted efforts under way to protect and advance human well-being, biodiversity and planetary health

he need for effective multilateralism has never been greater or more urgent. As the global community faces one of the greatest health, economic, social, environmental and developmental challenges of our time, we must ask ourselves how we can prevent this from happening again. Certainly, these challenges are multifaceted and thus cannot be tackled in isolation. Cooperation across all domains and sectors of society will be critical in mobilising and scaling up action and prevention in order to reduce the risk of future pandemics. As the world ‘recovers back better’, recognising the intrinsic connection between human health and the health and resilience of nature must serve not just as a stark reminder of the negative human actions on nature, but also as the basis of a global integrated approach for One Health, so that policies are coordinated and multiple sectors work together to achieve better public health outcomes. The Convention on Biological Diversity stemmed from a growing international recognition that biological diversity is a global asset of tremendous value to the present as well as to future generations. Unfortunately, selfish human activities were, and still are, gravely endangering it. It is no longer undeniable that biodiversity is the foundation of

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human life and the part of nature that is alive. It covers all the relationships between living beings and the natural world including their environments, and therefore is not limited to being solely an inventory of species. We cannot survive without the biodiversity that feeds us, houses us, cures us and provides us with the air we breathe and the water we drink – plus all that nature inherently nurtures and sustains for human well-being.

Elizabeth Maruma Mrema, Executive Secretary, Convention on Biological Diversity

A BLUEPRINT FOR BIODIVERSITY Parties to the convention are currently developing the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework with contributions from all stakeholders. It will be the overarching and universal blueprint framework on biodiversity – not only for the convention and all biodiversity-related agreements, but also for the entire United Nations system as well as the global community at large. The framework, which is expected to be adopted at the 15th meeting of the Conference of the Parties in Kunming, China, will play a momentous role in building resilience in the face of growing environmental, health, food security and development challenges. It will galvanise the global community to seek collaborative, multistakeholder joint solutions across these sectors. Without an ambitious framework that is embraced by all partners and stakeholders, the current negative trends in biodiversity and ecosystems loss will continue to undermine progress towards global goals including the Sustainable Development Goals and those under the Paris Agreement. The United Nations General Assembly Summit on Biodiversity on 30 September 2020 was an important

ELIZABETH MARUMA MREMA Elizabeth Maruma Mrema was appointed executive secretary of the Secretariat to the Convention on Biological Diversity in June 2020, having served as interim executive secretary since December 2019. She was previously director of the Law Division of the United Nations Environment Programme, where she has held many positions over two decades, including deputy director of the Ecosystems Division and executive secretary of the UNEP/Secretariat of the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals. Before joining UNEP, Ms Mrema worked with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation of the United Republic of Tanzania and was a lecturer in public international law and diplomacy. Twitter @mremae @UNBiodiversity  cbd.intorg

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

We cannot survive without the biodiversity that feeds us, houses us, cures us and provides us with the air we breathe and the water we drink – plus all that nature inherently nurtures and sustains for human well-being” milestone on the road to COP 15. It highlighted the strong interlinkages among climate change, biodiversity loss and land degradation. It reminded the international community that nature-based solutions, building on the preservation and restoration of biological diversity and ecosystems, offer an important opportunity for shared progress during the Decade of Action for Sustainable Development. As stated by the secretary-general of the United Nations, the world must take concerted action to safeguard our planet and ensure sustainable development that benefits the health, security and well-being of all peoples, particularly those in developing countries and among marginalised and vulnerable populations globally. WHAT IS AT STAKE As we move to negotiate and adopt the framework next year, it remains urgent for the global community to increase its understanding of what is at stake, to foster action and the necessary transformation that secures the healthy future of this planet and all its peoples. This aligns extremely well with the themes of the G20 Riyadh Summit of empowering people, globalgovernanceproject.org

especially women and youth, and of safeguarding the planet by fostering collective efforts to protect our global commons. To achieve the level of transformation required to fulfil the needs of all peoples while protecting our planet, we need to work hand in hand with all sectors to reinforce the political importance of biodiversity at the highest levels. For this transformation to happen, the G20 plays the decisive role in moving the biodiversity agenda forwards without undermining its linkages with other sectors. We will need transformative changes of our development models, as well as whole-ofgovernment, whole-of-society integrated approaches on the basis of shared responsibility and global solidarity, in order to restore and protect nature, thereby ensuring the integrity and advancement of human well-being. Greener and sustainable post–COVID-19 recovery approaches provide an opportune moment for such transformation. It is my hope that the deliberations and decisions taken at the Riyadh Summit will provide further decisive steps in advancing this important global and multilateral agenda. November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

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SECURING THE FOOD SUPPLY

Cultivating food security in the age of COVID-19 As G20 members marshal resources to combat the virus in their cities, towns and rural communities, it is vital that they also support farming communities to keep food systems working in the short term and build resilience in the long term

Gilbert F Houngbo, President, International Fund for Agricultural Development

or the three billion people living in the rural areas of developing countries, the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic may be as dangerous as the virus itself. They are around 80% of the world’s poorest people, working to survive on less than $1.90 a day. As the battle to contain the pandemic continues, it also worsens problems caused by climate change and threatens to push millions more people into extreme poverty and hunger. Urgent action is needed to protect food systems in low-income and emerging economies. G20 agriculture ministers quickly recognised the danger in April, when COVID-19 began devastating lives and economies in Asia, Europe and the Americas. They saw that emergency measures taken by governments to protect their populations and combat infection could have the unintended effect of disrupting food security and nutrition. Ministers acted swiftly to ensure that supply chains between farm and city were not broken. Thanks to the joint efforts of governments and private businesses, urban dwellers in high-income countries have largely been spared empty shelves

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and rampant food price inflation. But in low- and middle-income countries, the consequences are often severe. INVESTMENT IN RESILIENCE Since 1977, the International Fund for Agricultural Development has invested to reduce hunger, increase resilience and raise incomes among the world’s poorest: rural people living mostly in low- and lowermiddle-income economies. In focusing on improving nutrition and developing rural transformation, IFAD is conscious of the need to build the ability to withstand shocks, such as drought or economic crises. This is critical to the long-term success of rural development projects. It is also crucial to building and maintaining peace: the link between disruptions in food systems and conflict is well established. COVID-19 has brought unforeseen problems. Inadequate transportation infrastructure cuts off farm supplies; sudden labour shortages disrupt harvests; lockdowns stymie market access; the closure of trading businesses cuts small-scale farmers out of the food supply chain. The survival of millions of small businesses in developing countries – small-scale farms, market traders, intermediaries – rests on fragile links that risk being severed. If these links are not repaired and maintained, seeds will not be planted and crops will not be harvested. Poultry and livestock

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

Women harvesting tea leaves

production will lack inputs. Incomes will fall, unemployment will rise, and hunger and deprivation will increase. Before the pandemic, hunger had already been rising, reaching an estimated 690 million people in 2019. We were already off track from ending hunger by 2030. Now, the situation is even more urgent. COVID-19 could take the world back to absolute levels of hunger not seen for two decades. This summer’s State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World report estimated an additional 83–132 million women, children and men may go hungry because of the economic fall-out from the pandemic. Doing nothing is not an option. IFAD has acted quickly to meet the needs of the communities where we work.

First, we reshaped ongoing projects to address the immediate impacts of the crisis by providing inputs to small-scale farmers, finding ways to keep food markets open and delivering targeted funds where they were most needed. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, we partnered with government to distribute seeds and fertilisers to 9,000 small-scale farmers, enabling them to maintain local food production; in Cambodia our intervention helped women’s cooperatives keep their rice processing businesses open. Second, we have been working with other agencies, including the Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Food Programme, on joint studies to assess the impact of COVID-19. Third, we swiftly

GILBERT F HOUNGBO Gilbert F Houngbo became the sixth president of the International Fund for Agricultural Development in 2017. He previously served as deputy director-general of the International Labour Organization where he led field operations in more than 100 countries. From 2008 to 2012, he was prime minister of the Republic of Togo. He has also held numerous leadership positions at the United Nations Development Programme. Twitter @GHoungbo  ifad.org

globalgovernanceproject.org

mobilised dedicated financial support through the Rural Poor Stimulus Facility. The RPSF helps rural communities survive the crisis and accelerate the recovery of poor small-scale farmers and other rural people. One among 11 proposals will enable 1.7 million farmers in Kenya, Nigeria and Pakistan to receive tailored information and news via their mobile phones on market access, weather, better farming techniques and financial support. FINANCIAL SUPPORT IFAD has provided $40 million in seed capital to the RPSF and the additional generous contributions from our member states – including Canada, Germany and Sweden – will help keep small-scale farmers in business and enable them to maintain food supply where needs are greatest. IFAD helps affected farming communities go well beyond recovery and rehabilitation – towards building resilience in the medium to long term. Small-scale farmers are crucial for the world’s food systems. They produce up to half the food calories consumed worldwide and contribute significantly to agrobiodiversity. Amid global trade, transport and market disruption, they help ensure food is available during the pandemic. As G20 members marshal resources to combat the virus in their cities, towns and rural communities, they must keep sight of the vital role of small-scale farmers and other rural business people in keeping food systems working and in feeding vulnerable people throughout the world.

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AAAID

Food for thought Throughout its history, the Arab Authority for Agricultural Investment and Development’s focus has been on food security, with agricultural investment, strong partnerships and considered campaigns all part of its delivery model Mohammed Bin Obaid Al Mazrooei, President and Chair of the Board of Directors, Arab Authority for Agricultural Investment and Development

iverse factors worldwide have contributed to the increase in food insecurity. In 2019, an estimated 135 million people were considered “acutely food insecure” – a notable increase of 22 million people from 2018. In the Arab countries, the food gap has reached $33.6 billion, with 50 million people considered to be suffering from food insecurity. There is colossal agricultural potential in Arab countries, where the total arable land is about 233.2 million hectares. However, only about 31.8% of this land is utilised, and agriculture only represents 4.2% of the total gross domestic product. In 1976, Arab world leaders combined forces to establish the Arab Authority for Agricultural Investment and Development. The headquarters were situated in Sudan, as it was considered to be “the bread basket of the world”. AAAID is the only pan-Arab financial institution with an independent legal entity and the vision to be a leader in the reinforcement of food security in the Arab world. Over the years, AAAID has developed its business model around providing basic food needs through agricultural investment and development in Arab countries, with 21 contributing Arab member states, an equity capital amounting to US$1.1 billion and a total asset value of US$1.3 billion as of 2019.

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AAAID currently has 53 affiliate companies, whose activities are concentrated in the agricultural manufacturing sector at 50%, 23% in the livestock production sector, 23% in the plant production sector and 4% in the agricultural services sector. AAAID’s investments are distributed through diversified economic, financial and

environmental spheres. Sudan hosts 66% of AAAID’s total investments, followed by Egypt at 6.2%, the United Arab Emirates at 5.6%, Iraq at 4.4%, Saudi Arabia at 4%, Oman at 3.4% and 10.4% in the remaining member states as per the investment opportunities and the comparative advantages available to the region.

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

ADVOCACY

Arab Authority for Agricultural Investment and Development AMPLIFYING AGRICULTURAL focused on ‘innovation and future foresight’, PRODUCTION with the aim of achieving a qualitative and AAAID has deemed it crucial to amplify the innovative shift for the Arab Authority in its activities related to agricultural production fields of work and its internal and external and trade in the Arab region, as the high activities. Future foresight determines the domestic demand on basic food products expected upcoming directions of AAAID is met with imported products from other and the opportunities and risks it carries, countries. Consequently, while innovation will help to AAAID improved its strategic respond to these opportunities plan and established a new and potential challenges in strategy for agricultural new ways and away from investment. The new criteria traditional methods, which in are set based on benchmarking people were acutely turn directs the Arab Authority food insecure in 2019 to adopt modern applications with best global practices to evaluate all investment that simulate accelerated future opportunities before developments. proceeding with any new AAAID also implements project. The flexibility of the programmes supporting women new strategy enables AAAID to and small-scale farmers and respond to changes in a timely producers through revolving of GDP represented and appropriate manner. loan programmes in rural areas by agriculture in Arab Following its mission to of Sudan, Mauritania, Tunisia, countries provide basic food needs Comoros and Egypt, among through agricultural investment others, to grow corn, sesame, and development in Arab millet, peanut and other staple countries, AAAID’s affiliate food crops. AAAID has been companies work in production able to successfully elevate people suffering from the productivity and output of grains, meat, dairy, oils and food insecurity in the of thousands of farmers, with sugar. Accordingly, AAAID Arab region created and implemented the number of beneficiaries, numerous sustainable models reaching more than 10,725 that assist in increasing families and representing 58,557 production and crop productivity, promote families as of December 2019. There has also socio-economic development, protect been a threefold increase in cultivated areas the environment and grow a skilled and productivity as a result of AAAID’s workforce through organising training and support to farmers in the application of capacity-building programmes. One of the modern agricultural technologies. most recent programmes implemented is Several factors have ignited global unrest recently, including the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and its effect on MOHAMMED BIN different industries. As such, AAAID is OBAID AL MAZROOEI relentlessly working to create a pioneering His Excellency Mohammed Bin Obaid investment and technical model intended to Al Mazrooei has been the appointed support relevant establishments by offering president and chair of the board investment incentives, granting advantages of directors of AAAID since April and concessions, supporting infrastructure 2013. His career spans more than development in project areas and creating 30 years in the field of international a generally conducive investment climate economic relations. Before assuming for parties interested and involved in the leadership of AAAID, HE Al Mazrooei agricultural sector.

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was assistant secretary-general for the economic affairs in the Gulf Cooperation Council, assistant secretary-general of the projects sector of the Gulf Organization for Industrial Consulting and chair of the GCC department in the Ministry of Finance of the United Arab Emirates.  @Arab_Authority  aaaid.org/en

globalgovernanceproject.org

TECHNOLOGY TAKE-UP The first half of 2020 challenged individuals, businesses and institutions to redefine the concept and application of innovation and new technologies. Meanwhile, AAAID has been adamant in working towards the dissemination and proper utilisation of available modern technologies and methods involved in the

field of agriculture. The efforts of the Arab Authority include developing projects, improving the quality of production and expanding the areas under cultivation. In that context, AAAID has established research stations in different member states that host some of its projects to apply new findings on agricultural production in the field. These programmes are classified under three major sectors: • Accelerated Innovation Processes: These depend on existing and recently invented technology that can be accessed and used by AAAID to transfer modern techniques, methods and technology. • Innovation and Cultural Research Stations: AAAID established 10 research stations, operated by qualified agronomists, aimed at conducting applied agricultural research to increase agricultural productivity. Results are then disseminated throughout AAAID’s affiliate companies and the communities in which it operates. • Gradual Innovation Processes: These are introduced starting with the origination of an idea to solve a problem or meet previously unfulfilled needs. With more than 40 years of experience, the Arab Authority solidifies its position through building and growing relations and providing perceptive and promising investment opportunities that aim to optimise returns, all within a framework of professionalism, good governance and transparency. AAAID’s partnerships are supplemented through mutually driven goals that foresee a contribution to attaining food security. One of the ways AAAID advocates for agricultural investment is through participating in and organising impactful events that create a platform for all interested parties to come together and meet, present, discuss and decide on policies that have major effects on the direction of institutions, organisations and government entities in the field.

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EMPOWERING WOMEN SECURING THE FOOD SUPPLY

A dire need for substantial action The COVID-19 pandemic has left vast numbers of people facing the dual crisis points of poverty and hunger, but, with renewed and concerted efforts, this year’s G20 summit could be a launchpad to start building the better world we all want

hen world leaders gather virtually for the G20 Riyadh Summit hosted by Saudi Arabia in November, their most urgent task will be to address the socio-economic impacts of the unprecedented global crisis caused by COVID-19. A coordinated international response that enables economies to function again and protects the world’s poorest communities against the effects of the pandemic must be at the top of their agenda. Even before COVID-19 hit, the World Food Programme and the wider humanitarian community were raising the alarm that 2020 would be the worst year for humanitarian crises since the Second World War. We were deeply concerned by the never-ending wars in Syria and Yemen, the deepening crises in hotspots including the Sahel region of West Africa and South Sudan, and the growing consequences of more frequent natural disasters such as floods and droughts. The world was already facing a perfect storm.

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David Beasley, Executive Director, World Food Programme

Today, the pandemic is laying waste to the global economy and threatens to overwhelm the global humanitarian system. In a few short months, all our old certainties have been banished as COVID-19 has stretched even the most sophisticated health systems almost to the point of collapse, undermined years of economic and development progress, and tested social stability and cohesion in ways we never would have imagined just one year ago. A HUNGER PANDEMIC This invisible menace threatens a hunger pandemic in the poorest countries where the vast majority of WFP’s beneficiaries live. It is a pivotal moment for every nation, every community, every individual. Now is the time for us to unite as one global community behind a coordinated plan to defeat this virus and protect the most vulnerable from its devastating effects. Governments around the world have invested $17 trillion in fiscal stimulus and central bank support to keep the global economy afloat. The G20 already threw a lifeline to poorer countries by suspending debt repayments until June 2021. But now is the time to show true global leadership with a commitment to provide broad support to low- and middle-income countries as they rebuild their shattered economies and social protection systems. I have witnessed the destructive socio-economic impact of COVID-19 on already vulnerable communities while visiting WFP’s front-line operations. The fallout is being felt harshly in Latin America, which has seen an almost three-fold rise in the number of people requiring food assistance. Urban communities in poor countries are also suffering hugely, due to job losses and collapsing remittances. Hunger rates are shooting up across

DAVID BEASLEY David Beasley was appointed in 2017 as the executive director of the United Nations World Food Programme, which won the Nobel Peace Prize for 2020. In a public service career that spans four decades, he has worked across political, religious and ethnic lines to champion economic development, humanitarian assistance, education, and intercultural and interfaith cooperation for the most vulnerable people across the globe. He served as governor of the US state of South Carolina from 1995 to 1999. Twitter @wfpchief  wfp.org

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

Even before COVID-19 hit, the World Food Programme and the wider humanitarian community were raising the alarm that 2020 would be the worst year for humanitarian crises since the Second World War”

A Yemeni girl searches for food in a camp for the displaced in the city of Taiz, Yemen

West, Central and Southern Africa. In Yemen, already ravaged by years of conflict-fuelled hunger, the virus is now ratcheting up people’s misery to almost unimaginable levels. As a result of COVID-19, the number of acutely food-insecure people could double, reaching 270 million in a matter of months. There is a real danger that more people will die from the economic impacts of COVID-19 than from the virus itself. One of our beneficiaries told us, “I’d rather die quickly from COVID-19 than slowly from starvation”. But allowing that to happen would be a profound failure on the part of the international community. BIGGEST RESPONSE IN HISTORY All around the world, WFP’s front-line teams are working day and night with our partners to get help where it is needed most. We have launched the biggest humanitarian response in our history, aiming to reach up to 138 million people in 2020. WFP’s logistics services are also the backbone of the global response to COVID-19, transporting critical supplies and aid staff on behalf of the entire globalgovernanceproject.org

humanitarian community to the front lines. WFP stands ready to use our unrivalled expertise and global capabilities to prevent this global health emergency from becoming a hunger pandemic. I am confident we will succeed – as long as we can secure the necessary funds from our donors in the coming months. But we are entering a new and dangerous phase, as conflict-scarred countries such as Yemen, South Sudan and Burkina Faso edge closer to the abyss of famine. So when the G20 members – the richest and most influential in the world – convene, they should commit to providing substantial new funding for the global humanitarian response to the hunger crisis borne of conflict and COVID-19. I also call on the G20 leaders to show real political leadership to use their influence to make renewed and concerted efforts to end the destructive conflicts that condemn so many to lives of poverty and hunger. After all the turmoil of recent months, the Riyadh Summit is a chance to start building the better world we all want. Let’s seize this opportunity and work together, in partnership, to achieve it. November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

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A CLEANER ENERGY ERA

G20 performance on

energy Various measures can improve the G20â&#x20AC;&#x2122;s compliance with its energy commitments and, as the human and economic devastation from COVID-19 continues, the leaders have little choice but to forge the critical connections among energy, the economy and global health

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G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT â&#x20AC;&#x201D; November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

September 2009, where the G20 dedicated 14% of its communiqué to energy. The next highest was 9% at Hamburg 2017, followed by 7% each at Seoul in 2010, Cannes in 2011 and St Petersburg in 2013. The lowest was at Washington in 2008 and Toronto in 2010 with 1% each, and Buenos Aires in 2018 with 2%. Osaka in 2019 had 6%. Stand-alone energy documents were produced at the 2014 Brisbane and 2017 Hamburg summits. In late 2018, following a series of unprecedented global natural disasters and record-breaking temperatures, G20 leaders at Buenos Aires launched their first Energy Transitions steering committee, involving several G20 engagement groups, on sustainable consumption, flexibility, transparency and the digitalisation of energy grids. This enabled inclusive collaboration on energy principles, including on access, renewables, transparency, clean energy and the phase-out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.

Ella Kokotsis, Director of Accountability, G20 Research Group

he G20’s informal format provides a unique opportunity for the world’s dominant energy players to meet on an equal footing and share national views. Although domestic energy management within the G20 ranges from market-driven to state-owned approaches, the G20 enables this highly influential group to overcome divergent perspectives and reach broad-based consensus on energy issues. The COVID-19 pandemic created massive uncertainty in energy markets. Saudi Arabia’s energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al-Saud recognised that “reliable, affordable and accessible energy is critical to powering essential services, including health care, to ensure we can quickly advance recovery efforts”. Energy supply and security will feature on the Riyadh agenda as Saudi Arabia hosts its first G20 summit.

COMMITMENTS G20 leaders generated 157 energy commitments, placing energy fifth among all subjects. There were 16 (13%) energy commitments at Pittsburgh in 2009, dropping to one (2%) at Toronto in 2010, rising to 14 (9%) at Seoul in 2010 and again to 18 (5%)

CONCLUSIONS Energy has attracted G20 leaders’ attention since their first summit in Washington in 2008, although to varying degrees. The most attention came at Pittsburgh in

at Cannes in 2011. They fell to 10 (6%) at Los Cabos in 2012, rose to 19 (7%) at St Petersburg in 2013 and lowered slightly to 16 (8%) at Brisbane in 2014. Only three (3%) came at Antalya in 2015 and eight (4%) at Hangzhou in 2016. Hamburg in 2017 generated the highest number of energy commitments at 42 (8%). But this was followed by a steep drop to eight (7%) at Buenos Aires in 2018 and only two (1%) at Osaka in 2019. COMPLIANCE The G20 Research Group has assessed 22 energy commitments for compliance. It found energy compliance averaged 70%, on par with the G20’s overall average of 71%. Energy compliance is higher than compliance on gender, climate change, development and trade, but lower than on macroeconomic policy, health, food and agriculture, financial regulation and international financial institutional reform. Compliance varied over time. High compliance came on energy commitments from Buenos Aires in 2018 with 89%, Seoul in 2010 with 82% and Cannes in 2011 with 81%. Lows came on commitments from Hangzhou in 2016 at 49% and Antalya in 2015 at 33%. The interim energy compliance score following Osaka in 2019 was 75%. The highest G20 energy compliers were France

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A CLEANER ENERGY ERA

Although domestic energy management within the G20 ranges from market-driven to state-owned approaches, the G20 enables this highly influential group to overcome divergent perspectives and reach broad-based consensus on energy issues” and Korea, each with 84%, followed by the United Kingdom and Brazil with 80% each. CAUSES AND CORRECTIONS The six summits that averaged the lowest energy compliance (57%) had a total of 86 commitments, compared to the five summits that averaged the highest compliance (82%), which had 69 commitments. This suggests that the G20 should made fewer commitments for focus, to improve its energy compliance. The six lowest complying summits averaging 57% generated a total of 6,484 words, while the five highest complying summits averaging 82% had 4,927 words. This again suggests a ‘fewer for focus’ approach to G20 energy governance. The degree of politically binding language also seems to correlate with compliance. The commitments with less binding language, such as reiterations of past commitments, averaged 62% compliance. The commitments with more binding language, such as 'we commit', averaged much higher 81% compliance. Measures to improve compliance include holding a same-subject energy ministerial meeting, including meetings to recognise shock-activated vulnerabilities, as the energy ministers did in April 2020 to address the COVID-19 pandemic. This is especially important, as there is no world energy organisation to make the health-energy links. Another measure is to shift leadership from the traditional Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to embrace the United States, Canada, Mexico, the United Kingdom 140

ELLA KOKOTSIS Ella Kokotsis has attended most G7 summits since 1994, has written broadly on various aspects of G20 and G7 summitry and global governance, has directed the research and publication of numerous analytical documents, and has spoken extensively at summit-related conferences worldwide. Her scholarly research methodology for assessing summit compliance continues to serve as the basis for the annual accountability reports produced by the G20, G7 and BRICS Research Groups. She is the author of Keeping International Commitments: Compliance, Credibility and the G7 Summits and co-author of The Global Governance of Climate Change.  www.g20.utoronto.ca

and Brazil, whose formidable hydrocarbon and clean energy capabilities are now replacing production and exports from OPEC-centred Venezuela, Iran, Iraq and Syria. As the human and economic devastation from COVID-19 continues, the G20 Riyadh Summit will have little choice but to forge the critical connections among energy, the economy and global health.

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

Act Now, Together

It is a necessity, a human right and the foundation of social, economic and political stability.” — Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General, World Health Organization

Health: A Political Choice A free publication from the Global Governance Project, produced in association with the World Health Organization

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Health is not a luxury item for those who can afford it.

A CLEANER ENERGY ERA

Fuelling a new energy era Under Saudi Arabia’s presidency, the G20 has addressed the impact of the pandemic on energy markets and power the global recovery, with new measures that seek to ensure security, restore stability and further energy access

His Royal Highness Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud, Minister of Energy of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia 142

s the premier forum for the world’s leading economies, the G20 has been at the forefront of responding to global crises since the 2008 global financial crisis. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has played a critical leadership role as president of this year’s G20 in responding immediately to COVID-19, together with all G20 members, and in laying the groundwork for an inclusive, sustainable and resilient global recovery. G20 energy ministers have been at the heart of this response and recovery effort, with a comprehensive agenda to ensure security and market stability, along with sustainability and access for all to the critical energy supplies that form the backbone of our economies as well as the medical systems and essential services critical to combat the pandemic. In my capacity as minister of energy of the Kingdom, it has been a privilege to work collectively with my counterparts during this critical time. In April 2020, we convened an extraordinary virtual ministerial meeting to respond to the impact of the pandemic and related instability in energy markets. The ministers committed to “ensure that the energy sector continues to make a full, effective contribution to overcoming COVID-19 and powering the subsequent global recovery”.

We also established the voluntary short-term Energy Focus Group to monitor response measures. It has discussed a range of measures, including adjusting energy production, monitoring consumption and supply reserves, and ensuring data transparency. Its work also highlighted the importance of sustained capital investments to support short- and long-term global energy security and stability. The energy Focus Group developed 12 measures to rebalance energy markets and submitted its recommendations to G20 energy ministers. Our collective hard work has been successful in ensuring security, restoring stability and furthering energy access throughout the pandemic. In parallel to our extraordinary crisis response efforts, the G20’s Energy Sustainability Working Group and Climate Stewardship Working Group have advanced an ambitious agenda to promote sustainable development, inclusive economic growth, human health and well-being, and the protection of the environment and our climate. REALISING NEW OPPORTUNITIES Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, our G20 presidency was being organised under the theme of “Realising Opportunities of the 21st Century For All”. This

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

overarching agenda is based on three pillars: empowering people, by creating conditions in which all people can live, work and thrive; safeguarding the planet, by fostering collective efforts to protect our commons; and shaping new frontiers, by adopting long-term and bold strategies to utilise and share the benefits of innovation. The twin issues of energy and climate are central to both this overarching vision and each of these pillars. In fulfilling this comprehensive agenda, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, together with leading partners from academia, the private sector and international organisations, succeeded in developing a new, cross-cutting and comprehensive approach in the Circular Carbon Economy Platform. A flagship of the Saudi G20 presidency, it has been endorsed by G20 energy ministers, crowning a year of intensive action-oriented programmes that included inputs by G20 governments, workshops and in-depth engagements. This CCE Platform offers a voluntary approach that can advance stable and secure energy markets and energy access while holistically managing emissions to mitigate the challenge of climate impacts and advance cleaner and more sustainable energy systems. THE FOURTH R Built upon the existing circular economy approach, the CCE Platform analyses energy, material and emission flows within both socio-economic and natural systems. It expands upon the circular economy’s focus on ‘reduce, reuse, recycle’ by adding ‘remove’ as a fourth R. Together, the 4Rs comprise a voluntary, holistic, integrated, inclusive, complementary and pragmatic approach that values all options to managing emissions in all sectors and advances universal energy access through an all-fuels and all-technologies approach, while also helping advance the development, deployment and scaling of innovative technologies, policies, practices and partnerships. In addition to recognising the CCE, our energy ministerial meeting on 27–28 September endorsed the G20 Initiative on Clean Cooking and Energy Access to accelerate progress on energy poverty eradication, recognising that access to energy underpins inclusive economic growth and sustainable development. We also endorsed the G20 Energy Security and Markets Stability Cooperation to further advance these critical objectives during the recovery from the pandemic and beyond. As we reflect on 2020, we recognise it has globalgovernanceproject.org

The 4Rs – reduce, reuse, recycle, remove – comprise a voluntary, holistic, integrated, inclusive, complementary and pragmatic approach that values all options to managing emissions” been filled with both unique challenges and opportunities. Our work has been enabled, and our success ultimately ensured, by the tireless work of all involved, including that of my fellow ministers who demonstrated courage and leadership, the Kingdom’s outstanding national network of energy and climate organisations, and the many leading organisations that played a critical part in our work. They include the Clean Energy Ministerial, Global CCS Institute, International Energy Agency, International Energy Forum, International Renewable Energy Agency, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center, Mission Innovation, the Nuclear Energy Agency, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, and Sustainable Energy for All. Under the most difficult of circumstances, we have together advanced key outcomes and delivered progress that will be taken forward by future presidencies, just as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has built on the legacy of previous presidencies. I look forward to working with my counterparts to continue to advance shared priorities under the presidency of Italy in 2021, India in 2022, and beyond.

HIS ROYAL HIGHNESS, PRINCE ABDULAZIZ BIN SALMAN AL SAUD His Royal Highness Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud was appointed minister of energy of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in September 2019. He has been an active participant in shaping energy policy, nationally and internationally, for more than 30 years and chairs many energy-related organisations. Prince Abdulaziz has served in numerous capacities in the ministry, including as minister of state for energy affairs, vice minister of petroleum and mineral resources, assistant minister of petroleum and mineral resources, deputy minister for petroleum affairs and adviser to the minister of petroleum and mineral resources.  meim.gov.sa

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ACWA Power

Solving the energy versus climate conundrum Generating an adequate, reliable, green supply of energy to expand affordable access is a collective challenge, but a solution exists in leveraging public-private partnerships to drive sustainable energy systems Mohammad A Abunayyan, Chair, ACWA Power, and Chair, Energy, Sustainability and Climate Taskforce, B20 Saudi Arabia

Hamad Buamim

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ncreasing rates of urbanisation, industrialisation and population growth across the globe are driving increasing demand for energy. Our collective challenge is to ensure that we generate an adequate, reliable supply of energy to expand affordable access, sustain economic growth and achieve inclusive social prosperity for all. Equally, there is an imperative to take immediate action to protect our climate. It is the responsibility of governments, international agencies and businesses to find more sustainable solutions to meet increasing energy demand and to reduce consumption by increasing efficiency. Our experience as a leading Saudi Arabian developer, investor and operator of power generation and desalinated water plants across several markets demonstrates that collaborative relationships between governments and private entities through publicâ&#x20AC;&#x201C;private partnerships accelerate the delivery of sustainable energy systems. In my view there are three important factors that positively impact the production of reliable and sustainable energy. First, the role of governments is critical in establishing policies and national energy transition targets to facilitate the adjustment to cleaner energy solutions, which will ultimately help attract wider private sector participation and increase competitive tension to bring costs down without compromising on demand being met, thus enabling the faster deployment of clean energy solutions. Second, incorporating the private sector is key to driving investment and innovation and bringing the technical expertise needed to accelerate the development of renewable energy capacity while also delivering socio-economic impact in line with the needs of society from an environmental, social and governance perspective and, at the same time, meeting each stakeholderâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s commercial objectives. Finally, progressive and rapid technological innovations, as a result of competitive procurement and the PPP model, have led to a virtuous cycle where renewables are becoming a cost-comparable alternative to fossil fuel generation for our electricity consumption, accelerating decarbonisation and contributing to meeting climate change goals.

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT â&#x20AC;&#x201D; November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

ADVOCACY

ACWA Power CHAMPIONING THE ENERGY TRANSITION Transitioning to a cleaner national energy mix is now an imperative for all nations. To do so governments must make a commitment to providing safe, reliable, sustainable and low-cost power by setting national policies, accurately forecasting future energy demand, and putting in place an energy roadmap complete with incentivisation schemes to scale quickly and transition towards meeting an objective set of clean energy targets. Although many governments have already taken steps to set ambitious renewables targets (notably Saudi Arabia and some of our regional neighbours have taken strong affirmative action), there are still concerns about the rate of deployment and scalability worldwide. Therefore, a comprehensive legal and regulatory framework for investment is an essential precondition to attract the right partners for governments to realise their future energy ambitions. In addition, long-term bankable power purchase agreements, sovereign/quasi-sovereign support and a government procurement framework that encourages deployment of new technologies at scale will give the private sector the confidence to work with governments and participate actively in the procurement process. This model also delivers the added benefits of attracting and increasing foreign direct investment both in the PPPs and in upstream localisation, as well as expansion of industrial activity in-country, and in even furthering technology innovations and optimisation. PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS AS A WAY FORWARD PPPs are by no means a new concept, having emerged over the past two decades as an attractive method to finance power projects. In the Middle East and North Africa region especially, national utilities have adopted at pace the independent power producer model to install efficient generation capacity at pre-agreed delivery specifications, at competitive cost. In our home market of Saudi Arabia for example, ACWA Power’s Sakaka solar energy facility is the first utility-scale renewable energy project developed under the King Salman Renewable Energy Initiative, which aims to produce 58.7GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030. This first globalgovernanceproject.org

A comprehensive legal and regulatory framework for investment is an essential precondition to attract the right partners for governments to realise their future energy ambitions”

MOHAMMAD ABDULLAH ABUNAYYAN Mohammad Abdullah Abunayyan is the chair of the Arabian Company of Water and Power International (ACWA Power), a company that focuses on development, operation and maintenance of projects for the production of water and electricity, transporting, distributing and conducting all related activities. Mr Abunayyan is also the chair of Abdullah Abunayyan Group, and chairs and serves on the boards of several private and public shareholders companies in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

project established a new tariff benchmark for unsubsidised photovoltaic power. Similarly, we have set world record low tariffs for each of the successive three phases of the Mohammed bin Rashid Solar Park in Dubai, a critical component of the Dubai Clean Energy Strategy 2050. Using innovative solar thermal heat storage technology on one of the phases that we are implementing, we will effectively deliver ‘dispatchable’ solar energy to the grid during the day and throughout the night, at tariffs comparable to traditional fossil fuel base load generation alternatives. There are several aspects of the IPP model that have set us up for this success. IPPs help share the burden of financing complex infrastructure projects under long-term agreements, significantly reducing capital and operational costs through build-own-operate or build-owntransfer models. This shift has reassured the private sector regarding the scope and scale of the market, attracting more participants and increasing competition. TECHNOLOGY AS AN ACCELERATOR The PPP approach squarely places the responsibility on the private sector to adopt and innovate new technologies to capture efficiencies. This includes utilising innovations around energy efficiency, battery storage and hybrid plants using a mix of technologies including solar photovoltaic and concentrating solar power, as well as investing in and developing other green fuels with high heating values such as green hydrogen. With more advanced technology and growing expertise we are able to further drive down prices to make sure energy is sustainable and affordable for all, while overcoming challenges such as intermittency, the ability to store energy and large land requirements. In conclusion, the sustainable practices we adopt today, through the guidance and collaboration between public and private sectors, investing in new technologies and innovation, will drive the energy transition to supply the clean energy needs of our future generations and help resolve the energy versus climate conundrum.

Twitter @ACWAPower  acwapower.com/en

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A CLEANER ENERGY ERA

A new energy era is within reach, with the pandemic having shown us how we are able to act decisively when facing a common purpose – in this case, a once-in-a-generation opportunity to deliver a transformative energy agenda that benefits all Francesco La Camera, Director-General, International Renewable Energy Agency

A time for extraordinary leadership

he COVID-19 pandemic is a crisis of unprecedented proportions. It has crippled our health systems and ravaged our economies. And it is far from over. The question is to what degree our response to this tragedy may prompt a turning point for the future of sustainable growth, inclusivity and resilience. In times of crisis we need leadership. Bold, clear, far-sighted leadership that bridges the priorities of today with the needs of tomorrow. Leadership that paves the way for others to follow and serves the common good. The G20 members hold the keys to much more than just their own future. As such they can take the wheel, steering us towards a sustainable future. If ever there was a time for extraordinary leadership, it is now. We cannot afford to squander this moment for systemic change. Our energy system and the economy it supports must be rethought and rebuilt in alignment with a path to prosperity. It should become a roadmap to job creation, inclusiveness, equity, improved health and energy security, and one that avoids the dangerous impacts of climate change. The nature of this crisis calls for a major state role, putting policymakers at the forefront of the solution. This involves defining the strategies and initiating direct interventions for the way out, while addressing the challenges that lie ahead. At the

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G20 energy ministers’ meeting earlier this year, I was clear about the need to embed the energy transition at the core of stimulus and recovery measures to ensure we emerge from this crisis cleaner, more resilient and more inclusive than we were before. AFFORDABLE TRANSITIONS Countries are responding. Energy transitions have become increasingly affordable because of forward-looking policy frameworks, ongoing innovations and falling technology costs for renewables. As a result, many of the world’s leading economies are ramping up decarbonisation ambition built on a transformed energy system. The European Union, China, Japan and Korea have all announced net-zero carbon ambitions. But this is only a start. This momentum can be harnessed to encourage similar levels of ambition from other major economies, and the rest of the world. The gains of doing so far outweigh the costs. Our Global Renewables Outlook released earlier this year shows that an energy system that is two-thirds renewable by 2050 is possible. It is also a path that relies on available technologies that must be scaled up to stay on the 1.5°C trajectory. A renewables-based energy transition would boost cumulative

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

100trn

boost to global GDP by transitioning to renewable energy

40m

Our Global Renewables Outlook released earlier this year shows that an energy system that is two-thirds renewable by 2050 is possible”

jobs would be created from a renewables-based energy transition

Photo by Master Wen on

global gross domestic product gains close to $100 trillion while significantly increasing the total number of energy jobs from around 60 million today to well over 100 million in 2050. Our COVID-19 response report says that by investing $2 trillion in the energy transformation each year between 2021 and 2023, the global economy could add 5.5 million new sustainable jobs. At present, around $10 trillion of investment in unsustainable energy is still planned over the next decade – an attempt to bail out the old system. These are highly vulnerable plans, likely to result in significant levels of stranded assets, eroded financial stability and fiscal uncertainty in the coming years. What is required is a redirection of capital and a change of mindset. NEW ENERGY STRATEGIES A sustained shift in local economies requires not only new energy strategies but also industrial policies to harness diverse segments of the value chain and targeted education and training programmes to build tomorrow’s workforce. Government policies and investment choices can create the self-perpetuating momentum to enact systemic change globalgovernanceproject.org

and deliver the energy transformation. Importantly, this is investment in our collective future and a key enabler of economic growth, social resilience and human welfare. The burden would not fall on public finance alone, particularly as technologies develop and costs fall further. Public finance can leverage private investments by a factor of three or four and should be used strategically to nudge investment decisions and financing in the

right direction. The agenda proposed is achievable. It is a once-in-a-generation opportunity for the G20 to deliver a transformative agenda that works for all. The pandemic has shown us how quickly everything we know can change. But it has also shown that collectively and with a common purpose, we are able to act decisively. Let us ensure that our actions deliver the future we all aspire to.

FRANCESCO LA CAMERA Francesco La Camera assumed the role of director general of IRENA in April 2019. He formerly served as director general of sustainable development in Italy’s Ministry of Environment, Land and Sea. As the national coordinator for climate, environment, resource efficiency and the circular economy, he led the Italian delegation at several Conferences of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. He served as co-chair of the Africa Centre for Climate and Sustainable Development and co-chaired the Financial Platform for Climate and Sustainable Development. Twitter @flacamera  irena.org

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A CLEANER ENERGY ERA

Cooperation and commonalities E

very year typically has a number of defining moments, but 2020 has truly been epoch shaping, with a plethora of global, paradigm-changing events led by the COVID-19 pandemic. It has left a trail of destruction: a global health crisis that has hit people, businesses, industries and countries around the world. For the oil industry, the impact of COVID-19 was unprecedented. Back in March and April 2020, businesses were haemorrhaging fast, market fundamentals were being completely upended and everyone was scrambling for answers to try to stop the bleeding. With the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia at the fore, led diligently and judiciously by King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman

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Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, Secretary-General, OPEC

The energy transition presents a complex challenge, but the oil industry is committed to being part of the solution by providing extensive resources and expertise that can help unlock our carbon-free future

Al Saud and Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud, minister of energy, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its non-OPEC partners in the Declaration of Cooperation embarked on putting together an agreement to help navigate this once-in-a-lifetime storm. At two extraordinary meetings on 9 and 12 April, DoC participants agreed to new voluntary production adjustments, the largest and longest in the history of the oil industry, with the decisions further reinforced at ministerial meetings on 6 June, focused on rebalancing and stabilising the market, in the interests of both producers and consumers. It was incredible to see the high level of diplomacy involved in putting together those critical decisions, with talks among the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s largest producers, including

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the United States for the first time, as well as others outside of the DoC, such as Alberta in Canada, Brazil and Norway. The G20 also played a positive role, with the convening of an extraordinary meeting of G20 energy ministers on 10 April, who expressed a commitment to work together “in the spirit of solidarity”. They also recognised the commitment of the producers in the DoC group to stabilise energy markets and acknowledged the importance of international cooperation in ensuring the resilience of energy systems. Slowly but surely we are seeing tentative indications of an oil market recovery. But it is clear we are not out of the woods yet, particularly with the pandemic still widespread. We remain vigilant, ready to take any necessary action, and welcome the support of the G20 for this vital global industry. BROADER, DEEPER DIALOGUE The type of dialogue and cooperation exhibited this year has always been front and centre of OPEC’s modus operandi, and we continually look to broaden and deepen the scope. This will be critical not only in meeting the direct challenges brought on by COVID-19, but also when looking at the longer-term challenges, specifically related to the environment, climate change, sustainable development and the much discussed energy transition. OPEC remains fully engaged and supportive of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement, which remain the only viable global frameworks to address climate change. It is our deeply held conviction that dialogue on this matter should be inclusive and broad, to try to evolve this energy transition in the least disruptive manner. We need to think carefully about what an energy transition actually means, and we all need to follow the right paths to lead us to a sustainable energy future. We need to transition to a more inclusive world in which every person has access to energy. A world where no one is left behind To put it simply, the basic challenge of the energy transition we face today can be summed up in two questions. How can we ensure there is enough supply to meet expected future demand growth? And how can this growth be achieved in a sustainable way that balances globalgovernanceproject.org

We need to think carefully about what an energy transition actually means, and we all need to follow the right paths to lead us to a sustainable energy future” the needs of people in relation to their social welfare, the economy and the environment? It all points to not limiting ourselves by putting all our eggs in one basket. We need to look for cleaner and more efficient technological solutions everywhere, across all available energies. At OPEC, we recognise the complexity of the challenge. Complex problems require comprehensive solutions. The

oil industry will continue to be part of the solution – it possesses extensive resources and expertise that can help unlock our carbon-free future. Just as the COVID-19 pandemic brought new avenues and countries together for cooperation, so does the energy transition require a broad vision. We need to all work together, step by step, to find issues of commonality and appreciate what is at stake.

MOHAMMAD SANUSI BARKINDO His Excellency Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo has been secretary-general of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries since 2016. From 2009 to 2010, he was group managing director of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, and previously he served as deputy managing director of Nigerian Liquefied Natural Gas. Among the posts he has held, he represented Nigeria in the negotiations for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto protocol. Twitter @OPECsecretariat  opec.org

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ENABLING THE DIGITAL ECONOMY

G20 performance on the

digital economy

Low binding language correlates with high compliance when it comes to the G20’s digital economy commitments – an essential finding as leaders must do more to keep up with the rapid pace of digital innovation

hen G20 leaders meet for the 2020 Riyadh Summit, they will discuss the rapidly evolving digital economy, employment and education in the digital age, and the role of digital technologies in fighting COVID-19. Saudi Arabia’s presidency has focused on harnessing digital technologies to realise the emerging digital opportunities for all, by identifying new avenues to improve standards of living through human-centric, data-driven and evidence-based policy, to increase competitiveness and to develop high-quality jobs. G20 leaders will likely emphasise the role of connectivity, digital technologies and policies in responding to the pandemic and enhancing their ability to prevent and mitigate future crises. CONCLUSIONS G20 leaders first referred to the ‘digital economy’ at the 2013 St Petersburg Summit, to address the growth of online transactions and existing gaps in the international taxation framework, which includes information and communications technologies. However, they first acknowledged the opportunity presented by the digitalisation of the economy at the 2008 Washington Summit, dedicating 88 words (2%) to the subject. They recognised the digital economy required strengthening the international financial regulatory system at the 2009 Pittsburgh Summit, dedicating 289 words (3%). Little attention was paid at the

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Meredith Williams, Senior Researcher, G20 Research Group 2010 Toronto Summit with 229 (2%) words, the 2011 Cannes Summit with 372 words (3%), the 2012 Los Cabos Summit with 169 words (1%), the 2013 St Petersburg Summit with 760 words (3%) and the 2015 Antalya Summit with 299 words (2%). It jumped to 3,042 words (19%) at the 2016 Hangzhou Summit, when the G20 acknowledged that the digital economy and innovation were key drivers of economic growth. It remained high with 5,029 words (14%) at the 2017 Hamburg Summit, 1,420 words (17%) at the 2018 Buenos Aires Summit and 1,265 words (19%) at the 2019 Osaka Summit. COMMITMENTS Between 2015 and 2019, the G20 made 94 collective, politically binding, future-oriented commitments on the digital economy, or 0.35% of the total 2,668 commitments on all subjects since 2008. The first commitments on the digital economy were two (1%) made at the 2015 Antalya Summit. The 2016 Hangzhou Summit made 48 commitments (23%), the most made to date, followed by 27 commitments (5%) at the 2017 Hamburg Summit. The 2018 Buenos Aires Summit decreased to 11 commitments (9%), followed by the 2019 Osaka Summit with just six (4%).

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

COMPLIANCE The G20 Research Group has assessed 10 of the 94 commitments for compliance, and found average compliance of 69%, close to the 71% compliance on all issues. The one commitment assessed from the 2015 Antalya Summit had 55% compliance. Six commitments from the 2016 Hangzhou Summit averaged 65%. These scores contrast with the 95% compliance with the commitment at the 2017 Hamburg Summit. Two commitments assessed from the 2018 Buenos Aires Summit averaged 74%.

MEREDITH WILLIAMS Meredith Williams is the lead researcher on the digital economy and digital innovation for the G20 and G7 Research Groups. She holds a masters of law (LLM) in innovation technology from the University of Edinburgh Law School, where she focused her research on the General Data Protection Regulation, data protection law and e-commerce law. She has held various roles in the financial services industry and is currently pursuing a career in the technology industry at one of the largest global e-commerce platforms.  www.g20.utoronto.ca

CAUSES AND CORRECTIONS Digital innovation continues to outpace policymakers’ work, evolving faster than regulation can be implemented. Although G20 digital compliance has been on par with its overall average, there is a substantial and immediate need for more robust commitments on the digital economy, and for fulfilling those commitments. G20 leaders can implement several low-cost accountability measures under their direct control to do so. One measure is to use less binding language in the commitment. Of the 10 assessed commitments, three had low binding language and seven had high binding language. There is a correlation between low binding language and high compliance.

Another measure is to increase the number of words dedicated to the subject in the summit documents. Summits with the highest compliance averaged 85% and had a higher total of 6,449 dedicated words. Summits with the lowest compliance scores averaged 60%, with only 3,341 words. More words on this issue correlates with higher compliance. The G20 can therefore improve its digital economy compliance by outlining clear expectations in less binding language to highlight that the commitments should be realised. The leaders should also increase the number of words and commitments they make on the digital economy. Finally, G20 leaders should act to keep up with the rapid pace of digital innovation by reviewing current trends and innovations in digitalisation, to identify areas requiring regulation and policy change.

G20 performance on the digital economy, 2008–19 100

commitments made on the digital economy at the Hangzhou Summit – the most to date

69%

Average compliance on assessed digital economy commitments

Compliance (%) globalgovernanceproject.org

Conclusions (% words)

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ENABLING THE DIGITAL ECONOMY

The power of digitalisation This year has taken a huge toll on our economic future. To harness opportunities and address challenges, the G20 Saudi presidency has focused the Digital Economy Task Force on driving human-centric technological innovation to increase inclusiveness and generate equitable progress

he G20’s Digital Economy Task Force began this year with the intent to accelerate multilateral collaboration to advance the shared interests of G20 members and deliver tangible benefits to people around the world, guided by the overarching theme of Saudi Arabia’s presidency: “Realising Opportunities of the 21st Century for All”. The digital economy is central to creating these opportunities and ensuring they are inclusive. Even before the onset of COVID-19, the DETF faced urgent challenges, including the slow, unequal recovery from the 2008 global financial crisis, the widening digital divide and the evolving skill requirements of future work. They affect millions of people for whom participation in the digital economy represents creating prosperity for themselves, their families and communities. To address these challenges and unleash the vast potential of the digital economy to raise living standards and accelerate societal progress everywhere, with an urgency intensified by the

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Abdullah A Alswaha, Minister of Communications and Information Technology, Saudi Arabia

pandemic, the DETF focused on artificial intelligence, cross-border data flows, smart cities, measurement of the digital economy and security in the digital economy. DESIGNING A DIGITAL RESPONSE For children lacking internet access, the sudden shift to remote learning was a devastating setback with lifelong implications. For small business owners without e-commerce, the lockdowns effectively ended their livelihood. And for front-line healthcare workers, disrupted medical supply chains and obstacles to exchanging best practices quickly became matters of life and death. Thus, on 30 April we convened our Extraordinary G20 Digital Economy Ministerial Meeting. We agreed on six urgent priorities:

Connectivity: We agreed to work together to maximise inclusive, secure and affordable connectivity in collaboration with the private sector, including ensuring the functioning of networks now indispensable for economic opportunity and societal participation. Data: We encouraged collaboration on sharing accurate non-personal information to help prevent the spread of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases. When fuelled with large, reliable data, AI has great potential to accelerate pattern recognition and enable evidence-based policymaking. Research and development: Recognising the role of digital technologies in developing diagnostics, treatments and vaccines, we committed to use all available means, including high-performance computing, to speed progress. Participation: We agreed to collaborate to leverage digital solutions for individuals and firms to continue participating in

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

the economy, by promoting digital work, digital skills, and the use of remote working and learning tools. Trust: Given the increased digital vulnerability of individuals, institutions, and micro, small and medium-sized enterprises, we agreed to share best practices in responding effectively to malicious cyber activities, preventing disinformation and ensuring reliable crisis communication over digital channels. We also recognised the particularly challenging conditions for MSMEs, women and young entrepreneurs given persistent digital divides. The Saudi presidency developed Policy Options to Support Digitalization of Business Models during COVID-19 to share practical, replicable examples of how G20 governments are promoting digital tools to strengthen business continuity and resilience during the crisis. On 1 June, we convened the G20 Dialogue on Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence in Pandemic Response to share practical insights. It clarified policy approaches to applying AI in health and education, including addressing the privacytransparency challenge of respecting patients’ data while leveraging the data’s full potential to inform AI applications. STRENGTHENING THE FOUNDATIONS OF OUR DIGITAL FUTURE Our work culminated on 22 July with our ministerial declaration. We reached consensus on increasingly significant digital policy issues in national competitiveness and security. We were determined to advance the shared interests of our people in a thriving, inclusive and trustworthy digital economy. We achieved agreement in five areas: Trustworthy AI: We reaffirmed our commitment to promoting a human-centred approach to AI with the development of Examples of National Policies to Advance the G20 AI Principles to help policymakers operationalise the principles, including through guidelines, tools and standards for implementation. Data free flow with trust and cross-border data flows: Capturing the benefits of greater productivity, innovation and sustainable development requires trusted cross-border data flows. We recognised the importance of sharing experiences and good practices globalgovernanceproject.org

For children lacking internet access, the sudden shift to remote learning was a devastating setback with lifelong implications” for data policy and strengthening the interface between trade and the digital economy, particularly at the World Trade Organization. Smart cities: We encouraged the development and deployment of digital technologies for human-centric, environmentally sound, sustainable and inclusive smart cities. We thus welcomed the G20 Smart Mobility Practices to provide guidance and best practices. Measurement of the digital economy: We welcomed the G20 Roadmap toward a Common Framework for Measuring the Digital Economy. It contributes to closing implementation gaps, especially

in developing economies, strengthening indicator comparability and enhancing evidence-based policymaking. We recognised the Saudi presidency’s proposal for defining elements for measurement purposes and the importance of representative indicators related to jobs, skills, digital literacy and growth to monitor the social and economic impacts of the digital economy and ensure no one, including women and girls, is left behind. Security in the digital economy: We committed to advance security in the digital economy and welcomed the G20 Examples of Practices Related to Security in the Digital Economy, a practical resource for mitigating security and systemic risks. The Saudi presidency also hosted the first G20 Cybersecurity Dialogue, with inclusive, multi-stakeholder discussions on security risks, challenges and opportunities. ACCELERATING PROGRESS This year was remarkably productive for the DETF. Responding to the pandemic, we agreed on urgent priorities, developed policy options for increasing resilience and convened the first G20 AI Dialogue on pandemic response. Our ministerial declaration defined paths forward for AI, measurement of the digital economy and smart cities. Security in the digital economy was central to our discussions. The DETF plays a vital role in ensuring we create a global digital economy worthy of future generations. We have seen this year the extent of polarisation, the depth of the digital divides and their vast human cost. We now see the tremendous urgency to harness the digital economy and technologies as instruments of inclusion. We must learn from the current crisis to accelerate the transition from the fourth industrial revolution to the fifth – the revolution of trust.

ABDULLAH A ALSWAHA His Excellency Abdullah A Alswaha is the minister of communications and information technology for Saudi Arabia, and chairs the G20 Digital Economy Task Force under the Saudi G20 presidency. He has built multi-billion riyal, high-performing organisations in both the private and public sectors over the past two decades of his career.  mcit.gov.sa/en November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

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TECHNOLOGY IN INFRASTRUCTURE

G20 performance on

infrastructure for development G20 leaders should be cautious about making more commitments on infrastructure, as it does not correlate with higher compliance; targeted language and mobilising money are among the more effective measures in this area

nfrastructure for development is among the top priorities for the 2020 G20 Riyadh Summit. The vision outlined by the Saudi Arabian presidency includes “shaping new frontiers”, which includes a commitment to using technological advancements to bring innovation in infrastructure and close the infrastructure financing gap. The vision acknowledges that innovation in infrastructure “represents a game-changer to promote sustainable and inclusive growth”, making a firm pledge to place infrastructure for development at the forefront of the Riyadh Summit. CONCLUSIONS Since its first summit in 2008 in Washington, the G20 has paid sporadic attention to infrastructure. At the Washington Summit, leaders dedicated only 1% of all the words in their statement to infrastructure. That number rose to 2% at the 2009 London Summit and decreased to only 0.2%

MARY ZELENOVA Mary Zelenova is a senior researcher with the G20 and G7 Research Groups based at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at Trinity College in the University of Toronto. She is especially interested in human security, human rights and climate change. Maria holds an honours bachelor of arts in political science and history, and is currently pursuing a master of arts in international security at Sciences Po in Paris. Twitter @mary_zelenova  www.g20.utoronto.ca

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Mary Zelenova, Senior Researcher, G20 Research Group later that year at Pittsburgh. Attention to infrastructure spiked up to 6% at the 2010 Seoul Summit, decreased to 3% at Cannes in 2011 and to 4% at Los Cabos in 2012 and at St Petersburg in 2013. It peaked at 25% at the 2014 Brisbane Summit, and then declined to 9% at Antalya in 2014, 5% at Hangzhou in 2016, and 4% at Hamburg in 2017. It rose to 8% at Buenos Aires in 2018 and 7% at Osaka in 2019. COMMITMENTS Since 2008, G20 summits have produced 70 infrastructure commitments. The first were made at the 2009 London Summit, with five. Six were made at each of the 2010 Seoul and the 2011 Cannes summits. Five commitments were produced at the 2012 Los Cabos Summit and four at the 2013 St Petersburg Summit. There was a peak of 28 at the 2014 Brisbane Summit, but the number subsequently decreased steadily to eight commitments at the 2016 Hangzhou Summit, six at the 2017 Hamburg Summit, and only one commitment each at the 2018 Buenos Aires Summit and 2019 Osaka Summit. COMPLIANCE The G20 Research Group has assessed 12 of these 70 infrastructure commitments for compliance by G20 members and found average compliance of 69%, slightly lower than the overall average of 71%. The highest compliance of 98% was with commitments made at the 2014 Brisbane

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

Summit, followed closely by 95% from 2010 Seoul, 91% from 2012 Los Cabos and 93% from 2013 St Petersburg. Compliance of 90% for the 2012 Los Cabos Summit was achieved for a commitment to promote reforms for development, including enhancing infrastructure investment. The lowest compliance was 33% for the 2017 Hamburg Summit and 50% for the 2009 London Summit. Commitments made at the 2018 Buenos Aires Summit on attracting more private capital to infrastructure investment and investment in disaster-resilient infrastructure in vulnerable countries averaged 77%. A commitment on quality infrastructure investment from the 2019 Osaka Summit received an interim score of 75%.

The leaders should be careful to assess the impact of language on infrastructure for development and economic growth and embed ambitious policy targets in the commitments”

69%

CORRECTIONS Compliance can be improved in the following ways under G20 leaders’ direct control. First, the leaders should be cautious about producing more commitments on infrastructure, because a high number of commitments on this subject does not necessarily increase compliance. Of the 28 commitments made at Brisbane – the summit with the most commitments on infrastructure – the two assessed for

Average compliance on assessed infrastructure commitments

commitments on infrastructure produced since 2008

compliance produced scores of 98% and 58%. Second, the leaders should avoid using general language in their commitments. The four highest-scoring commitments for compliance included language that targeted long-term financial investment in infrastructure and a conducive environment for infrastructure development. The leaders should be careful to assess the impact of language on infrastructure for development and economic growth and embed ambitious policy targets in the commitments. Money mobilised is also an important catalyst for improved compliance, and leaders should include such language in their commitments on infrastructure. Thus, the G20 leaders should continue to put infrastructure for development on their agenda, assess the potential for infrastructure projects to improve economic growth and include financial catalysts in the text of their infrastructure commitments. The G20 Research Group has found that commitments on other subjects with money mobilised also produce higher compliance. At Riyadh, the leaders should take the opportunity to create more ambitious policy targets to advance innovative solutions on crucial infrastructure projects.

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Conclusions (% words)

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TECHNOLOGY IN INFRASTRUCTURE

Interview with Marie Lam-Frendo, CEO, Global Infrastructure Hub

Finance for strong foundations

The infrastructure supply gap is significant, but by focusing on four key deliverables, the G20 can support and establish new, technology-based critical networks that would be resilient in future crises

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What is the gap between the infrastructure needed throughout the world and the projected supply? It’s actually increasing. The Global Infrastructure Hub’s Global Infrastructure Outlook, which we have been publishing since 2017, has calculated the gap is $15 trillion, with an increasing trend to $94 trillion across all sectors – economic and social. The G20 has continued with the Roadmap to Infrastructure as an Asset Class, developed under the 2019 Argentinian presidency, and with the Quality Infrastructure Investment agenda from Japan’s presidency last year. This year, the Saudi presidency is emphasising the role of infrastructure in economic stimulus to support responding to the COVID-19 crisis and, more immediately

– because we’re not yet in the recovery phase – looking at critical networks that would be resilient in future crises. As a trusted adviser to the G20, and the only infrastructure initiative whose main duty is to support its agenda, the GI Hub has submitted four deliverables this year. First, looking at the fiscal constraints increasing daily, we created an interim report for the G20 with a quantitative analysis of the impact of public investment on economic growth. Public investment that includes infrastructure is more effective than other public spending in increasing economic output in the medium term: on average it is a fiscal multiplier of 1.5 times within two to five years. We compiled more than 3,000 multiplier data from reputable sources, going back 20 years, on investing

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

MARIE LAM-FRENDO Marie Lam-Frendo was appointed CEO by the board of the Global Infrastructure Hub on 28 January 2019. Previously, she was the head of Asia-Pacific for Acuity. From 2011 to 2014, she headed the Infrastructure Initiatives department of the World Economic Forum, where she led their thought leadership activities, publishing thought leadership reports on best practices in the infrastructure sector. Before that, she worked for European utilities company Essent then RWE. She started her career working for various engineering consulting firms on projects in Africa, the Middle East and Europe. Twitter @gi_hub  gihub.org

in infrastructure even in constrained fiscal circumstances. It’s a fast return on investment. Public investment also raises productivity and output in the long run. An increase of 1–2% in the total value of public capital stock can boost private output by 0.2% every year. Our qualitative analysis looked at why, what, how and when to begin those programmes and to ensure that they support economic recovery and policy objectives. Last year, the Quality Infrastructure Investment principles focused on sustainability, resilience and good governance, which respond to growing requests for environmental, social and governance principles. I wouldn’t be surprised if this year investors rank ESG twice as high as they did last year. globalgovernanceproject.org

It is important for governments to send a clear message to the infratech community that they’re ready to support and embrace these technology changes” Second, we are supporting the Saudi presidency on infratech. Infrastructure projects are mostly long term and the sector has been slow in adopting new technology to increase productivity. To achieve G20 objectives of sustainable and inclusive economic growth, especially given the current crisis, measures to improve the efficiency of infrastructure investment are crucial. We put together a 200-page report with 40 global case studies of using infratech for the finance ministers in July. We pointed out several relevant and affordable technologies for helping prevent and mitigate the effects of COVID-19. This is part of the G20 action plan. Third, and also part of the G20 action plan, is supporting the implementation of the G20 QII principles. We have compiled good practices from the infratech case studies for the finance ministers, which will go on to the leaders. This interim report on which principles are showing progress and which need work fits into the QII indicator work that the International Finance Corporation is doing. It’s a multi-year agenda, as it requires much consultation in the countries to ensure agreement on which indicators will be used. Fourth, and very topical, is getting more private capital. We delivered a report to the finance ministers in October to highlight key impediments to infrastructure as an asset class. We looked at 60 case studies that show good practices for funding and innovative

financing, with interesting ideas from multilateral development banks and governments. But you need to bring in private capital. We know there is almost $150 billion in equity. We know that debt is easy to access and cheap. So why is it not happening? Because there aren’t the right mitigation instruments available at the right time, or you don’t have the right tranche of equity available to cover specific risks. The case studies show that by having the right players together, you can get good deals, and those deals can be replicated in other applications. What would you most like the G20 leaders to do on infrastructure? Continue to commit to QII implementation. Implementation could be done using the indicators or through formal work on case studies. It is important to show that the G20 is monitoring implementation, depending on national circumstances – all countries have limitations – to provide direction for sustaining this agenda. We’re just at the beginning and governments have a big responsibility to show their support for infratech, because there is a lot of private-sector money, specifically venture capital, that is not well represented. There’s a role for the G20 to say, ‘we are getting ready to embed in our policies more incentives for infratech players’. It is important for governments to send a clear message to the infratech community that they’re ready to support and embrace these technology changes.

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TECHNOLOGY IN INFRASTRUCTURE

Interview with Marcos Troyjo, President, New Development Bank

Satisfying diverse financing needs What is the mission of the New Development Bank, and what progress has it achieved so far? The New Development Bank’s mission is to mobilise resources for infrastructure and sustainable development projects for BRICS and other emerging countries, ultimately to promote global growth and development. It strives to establish itself as a new kind of development institution by innovating across three broad areas: relationships, projects and instruments, and approaches. Since its inception, the NDB has made remarkable progress. By the end of the third quarter of 2020, its cumulative project approvals reached $20.7 billion. The NDB has focused on clean energy; transportation; irrigation, water resource management and sanitation; sustainable urban development; and social infrastructure. The NDB’s subscribed capital is $50 billion. By the end of the third quarter of 2020, the total paid-in capital received amounted to $7.2 billion. A solid capital base, robust business profile and prudent risk management framework have enabled the NDB to maintain strong international credit ratings, higher than the sovereign credit ratings of its members, and therefore to access funding at favourable terms in international and domestic capital markets. To ensure that sufficient resources are available to meet its liquidity needs, the NDB has five funding programmes to raise funds in various currencies. To date, it has raised over $5 billion through bond issuances in international and domestic capital markets. 158

As well as expanding its membership, the New Development Bank – whose mission is to mobilise resources for sustainable development in emerging economies – is strengthening its collaborative and partner work through active participation in global forums – including the G20

How has COVID-19 affected the demand for the NDB’s services? The immediate impacts of the pandemic and ensuing downward pressures on the global economy present significant challenges for the sustainable development and economic growth of NDB members. The economic shock caused by COVID-19 underscores the countercyclical role that multilateral development banks and other development finance institutions, such as the NDB, can play in support of growth and development during a crisis. The NDB has responded with increased agility, speed and flexibility to its

members’ urgent needs. It accelerated the expansion of its operations by moving beyond financing mainly economic infrastructure to supporting sustainable development projects related to health, employment and social inclusion. The NDB established the Emergency Assistance Response Facility of up to $10 billion to address members’ urgent financing needs. The facility supports those countries’ health and social relief efforts by financing direct expenses related to the pandemic or providing support to governmental measures for economic recovery. To date, it has approved $4 billion for emergency assistance loans to the governments of Brazil, India, China and South Africa. The NDB is also working on projects to support the post-COVID recovery of its members. What are the NDB’s priorities for 2020 and beyond? The NDB is getting closer to a steady state of operations, and is targeting incremental project approvals exceeding $10 billion in 2020. As it develops its ability to implement complex projects, it will continue to offer increasingly sophisticated and innovative financial instruments that can satisfy its clients’ diverse financing needs. Aligned with its mandate, the NDB is fully committed to leveraging its demand-driven approach and providing tailor-made solutions to its members to address the immediate challenges posed by COVID-19 as well as the associated adverse impacts on their long-term social and economic development. The NDB is ready and well equipped to participate

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

MARCOS TROYJO Marcos Troyjo began his term as president of the New Development Bank in July 2020. He recently served as Brazil’s deputy economy minister and special secretary for foreign trade and international affairs and represented the Brazilian government on the boards of multilateral development institutions. Mr Troyjo also chaired Brazil’s Commission on External Financing and its National Investment Committee. He co-founded and served as director of the BRICLab at Columbia University, where he taught international and public affairs. Twitter @MarcosTroyjo @NDB_int  www.ndb.int

The economic shock caused by COVID-19 underscores the countercyclical role that multilateral development banks and other development finance institutions, such as the NDB, can play in support of growth and development during a crisis” globalgovernanceproject.org

actively in what could be the biggest round of infrastructure investment since the 2008 global financial crisis. Despite its growing operations, the NDB will remain a lean organisation, committed to operating at speed, without compromising quality. Whenever possible, it will continue to use its members’ own systems to manage the environmental and social impacts and risks of projects as well as to ensure the best use of resources. The NDB will also enhance the provision of financing in its members’ local currencies and is ready to expand these operations according to demand. In the near future, the NDB will take steps towards expanding its membership. Membership expansion will allow it to extend its development efforts, knowledge and technological capacity to the benefit of more countries and their citizens. It will help strengthen the NDB’s financial capacity, allow it to diversify its portfolio and increase its presence globally. The NDB will also strengthen collaboration and partnerships with other multilateral development banks and development institutions by actively participating in forums such as the G20 and BRICS, so as to rethink and revamp development policy and help countries make the most effective use of the international financial architecture. The NDB will strive to be a platform for cooperation, by playing an increasingly important role in bringing economic players together, facilitating knowledge sharing and promoting innovation among the BRICS countries and other emerging markets and developing countries.

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COMBATTING CRIME AND CORRUPTION

G20 performance on

anti-corruption To meet their targets on fighting corruption – which has worsened globally in the wake of COVID-19 – G20 leaders should consider new ways to use technology, emphasise fiscal transparency and call for the adoption of a universal definition of corruption

he 2020 Saudi presidency has identified corruption as a threat to national and international stability, and for the first time organised a ministerial meeting on anti-corruption, doing so in the lead up to the Riyadh Summit. With the global spread of COVID-19, opportunities for corruption have multiplied. There is a very real threat of the exploitation of the G20’s stimulus to reduce the economic damage caused by the pandemic, as well as other public funds, assets and emergency aid, by corrupt public officials, leaving millions to die, ill or in abject poverty. With governments stretched fighting the pandemic, there is less oversight over procurement and spending, including awarding contracts for personal protective equipment, ventilators and medication; distributing grants, financial support and subsidised loans; and disbursing development aid.

DENISSE RUDICH Denisse Rudich is director of the London office of the G20 and G7 Research Groups. She has held various positions in financial crime prevention, including head of anti-money laundering and counterterrorist financing policy for the Royal Bank of Scotland and strategic advisor to Rabobank. She has served with the World Economic Forum’s Global Coalition to Fight Financial Crime, set up the first global AML/CFT working group for the crypto industry, advised The Sentry, provided expertise to the Joint Working Group of InteVASPs Messaging Standards, and was a member of the RegTech Council.  www.g20.utoronto.ca

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Denisse Rudich, Director, G20 Research Group London Office Public funds could be misappropriated, contracts could be awarded for suboptimal goods and medicines to individuals connected to governments, and aid could end up in offshore bank accounts or simply in the wrong hands. G20 leaders this year should thus make effective commitments and initiatives to fight corruption that they can abide by, with higher levels of adoption and implementation. CONCLUSIONS G20 leaders have dedicated a solid portion of their communiqués to anti-corruption, beginning with 6% at the 2008 Washington Summit. They made no references at the 2009 London Summit. The 2009 Pittsburgh Summit had 4%, followed by 3% at the 2010 Toronto Summit. The all-time high was 11% at the 2010 Seoul Summit. This declined to 8% at the 2011 Cannes Summit and 4% at the 2012 Los Cabos Summit. The 2013 St Petersburg Summit had 6%, with 3% each at the 2014 Brisbane and 2015 Antalya summits, and then 6% at the 2016 Hangzhou Summit. It dipped to 1% at the 2017 Hamburg Summit, then increased to 4% at the 2018 Buenos Aires Summit and 9% at the 2019 Osaka Summit. COMMITMENTS From 2008 to 2019, G20 leaders made 128 anti-corruption commitments or 0.5% of their commitments on all subjects. The 2008 Washington, 2009 Pittsburgh and 2010 Toronto summits each had three (between 2% and 5%). The number increased to nine (6%) at 2010 Seoul, dropped to five (2%) at

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

G20 performance on anti-corruption, 2008–19 100

Compliance (%)

2011 Cannes and rose again to seven (4%) at 2012 Los Cabos. The peak came at 2013 St Petersburg with 33 (12%). The 2014 Brisbane and 2015 Antalya summits each had three (2% and 4%, respectively). The 2016 Hangzhou Summit had seven (3%), the 2017 Hamburg Summit had 32 (6%) and the 2019 Osaka Summit had 13 (9%). COMPLIANCE The G20 Research Group’s assessment of 11 anti-corruption commitments, including an interim assessment for 2019, found compliance averaged 59%. Compliance for 2009 Pittsburgh averaged 63%, for 2010 Toronto dropped to 40%, but rose significantly to 73% for 2010 Seoul. It decreased to 53% for 2011 Cannes and 45% for 2012 Los Cabos. It rose to 58% for both 2013 St Petersburg and 2015 Antalya, to 68% for 2016 Hangzhou and to 70% for 2017 Hamburg. The interim average for 2019 Osaka dipped to 65%. CAUSES AND CORRECTIONS The four highest-complying summits averaged 69% and the six lowest-complying ones averaged 51% globalgovernanceproject.org

Conclusions (% words)

59%

Average compliance on assessed anti-corruption commitments

(excluding the interim Osaka score). The lowest-complying group had 4,167 words on anti-corruption, while the highest complying group had 3,525 words. This suggests the G20 should dedicate fewer words to anti-corruption. The lowest-complying group generated 52 anti-corruption commitments and the highest complying group generated 51, suggesting the number of anti-corruption commitments has no correlation with compliance with them. The use of highly binding language, such as ‘we commit’, leads to higher compliance and indicates political will. Compliance with anti-corruption commitments using such language averaged 65%, while those using less binding language averaged 53%.

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Commitments that referenced an international organisation averaged 58% compliance compared to 64% for those with no such reference. The five commitments that referenced the United Nations Convention Against Corruption averaged 59% compliance, similar to 60% for the five that did not. For their Riyadh Summit G20 leaders should continue executing the G20 Anti-Corruption Action Plan 2019–2021, implementing national anti-corruption strategies, considering new ways to use technology to cut time and costs, and focusing on public-private partnerships and integrity in privatisation. They should place emphasis on fiscal transparency, oversight and accountability in public procurement, asset declarations for senior officials, whistleblower protection and the criminalisation of bribery. They should continue exploring the links between gender and corruption and call for the adoption of a universal definition of corruption with support from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

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Under the Saudi presidency, the G20 will leverage its collective expertise and influence to drive efforts in crisis response and ensure effective implementation of commitments made

Elevating the global anti-corruption agenda

C Mazin bin Ibrahim AlKahmous, President, Saudi Arabian Oversight and Anti-Corruption Authority 162

orruption presents a serious threat to our economic and social well-being. The COVID-19 pandemic has made such risks even more pertinent. Issues such as bribery, misappropriation and abuse of power, now more than ever, pose direct threats to our financial and healthcare responses, risking both lives and livelihoods. Since the inception of its anti-corruption workstream in 2010, the G20 has made progress in leading the global anti-corruption agenda. This year, we hit new heights in elevating our collective work to the ministerial level. On 22 October 2020, the G20’s Saudi presidency hosted the first ever anti-corruption ministerial meeting. This meeting represents the enduring commitment of

G20 members to build a culture that will not tolerate corruption in any of its forms. G20 ministers with responsibilities for preventing and combatting corruption adopted the inaugural ministerial communiqué, laying out our year’s achievements and a roadmap for future action. We hope the anti-corruption ministerial meeting will be reconvened in future years to reaffirm and reinforce our leaders’ commitments to combatting corruption and guide the future work of the anti-corruption workstream. CRISIS RESPONSE Against the backdrop of an unprecedented global crisis, the elevation of anti-corruption to the ministerial level has helped us respond decisively. Following the actions taken by our leaders during

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

Since the inception of its anti-corruption workstream in 2010, the G20 has made progress in leading the global anti-corruption agenda”

the Extraordinary G20 Leaders’ Summit in March, the G20 ministers responsible for preventing and combatting corruption agreed on collective actions to combat corruption in response to COVID-19. Outlined in the G20 Call to Action on Corruption and COVID-19, our efforts include promoting transparency in our COVID-19 response, maintaining sound governance across both the public and private sectors to enhance integrity in our immediate response to the pandemic, and fostering integrity in the longer-term recovery. These are backed by the Compendium of Good Practices on Corruption in the Response to COVID-19, developed with the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. It provides a comprehensive overview of good practices undertaken by countries in this regard. globalgovernanceproject.org

MINISTERS’ FURTHER PRIORITIES Although the pandemic has topped our agenda, our countries have worked tirelessly to take further action across many priority areas, as outlined in our communiqué. We have reiterated our collective commitment to transparency and accountability in reforming the approach taken to our Accountability Report. This year’s document offers an in-depth analysis unseen in previous editions and delivers insights into areas of potential action that ministers will agree on when developing future G20 action plans, such as the need to enhance international cooperation in asset recovery. Furthermore, we have begun to resolve the issues identified by this analysis. The Saudi presidency has led the development of the Riyadh Initiative for Enhancing International Anti-Corruption Law Enforcement Cooperation. This initiative is hosted under the United Nations banner and kickstarted with $10 million from Saudi Arabia. This platform serves three purposes: to enhance direct contact between anti-corruption authorities, build knowledge and capacity, and reinforce synergies among existing anti-corruption law enforcement networks. The Riyadh Initiative was welcomed during the anti-corruption ministerial meeting, and now we have turned our focus to building the political capital and buy-in necessary to promote its use. Finally, the anti-corruption workstream has also been active in developing recommendations in other areas. They include G20 high-level principles on developing and implementing national anti-corruption strategies, using information and communications technologies to promote public sector integrity, and maintaining integrity in privatisation and public-private partnerships. These three sets of principles are

complemented by the G20 Action on International Cooperation on Corruption and Economic Crimes, Offenders and the Recovery of Stolen Assets, all as set out in our communiqué. Our priorities will shift towards completing our 2019–2021 action plan under Italy’s G20 presidency in 2021. Key topics for discussion will include the measurement of corruption, corruption in sport, and gender and corruption. However, we will continue to use our collective expertise and influence to drive efforts in crisis response and highlight the need to ensure effective implementation of the commitments that we have made over the past decade, as we continue to promote global integrity.

MAZIN BIN IBRAHIM ALKAHMOUS His Excellency Mazin bin Ibrahim AlKahmous was appointed president of Saudi Arabia’s Oversight and Anti-Corruption Authority in 2019. He has held various high-level positions in government over the past 30 years, focusing on combatting bribery.

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Uprooting corruption around the globe

Economic globalisation has created fertile ground for organised crime and terrorism to thrive. A global effort is required to combat this corruption – through partnerships, information sharing and commitment at the leadership level

Jürgen Stock, Secretary-General, INTERPOL

orruption is one of the many areas of crime that flourishes from economic globalisation, with far-reaching negative repercussions for political stability, economic development and social prosperity. It creates a fertile ground for organised crime and terrorism to thrive, as criminals exploit the complicity of corrupt public officials and private actors. In today’s interdependent and increasingly volatile world, such situations make our societies more vulnerable and less safe. Corruption linked to organised crime relies on a network of legal and illegal links between the public and private sectors. Criminal networks are not on the periphery of legitimate business; they integrate themselves into it to maximise their profits and influence. Addressing corruption requires a whole-of-society approach at the national level. And investigating complex and transnational corruption cases necessitates cross-border cooperation and the timely exchange of information. This is reiterated in multiple international agreements, such as the United Nations Convention Against Corruption, and the Convention on Combating Bribery of Foreign Public Officials in International Business Transactions of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

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JÜRGEN STOCK Jürgen Stock was appointed as secretary-general of INTERPOL in 2014 and reappointed in 2019 to serve a second five-year term. Dr Stock was vice-president of Germany’s Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) from 2004 to 2014, before which he held several leadership positions within law enforcement development institutions. Twitter @INTERPOL_SG  interpol.int

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

INTERPOL’s global infrastructure is uniquely positioned to enable anti-corruption authorities from the organisation’s 194 member countries to join forces and tackle complex corruption cases. Moreover, in the past few years, INTERPOL has developed a range of tailored solutions developed by its dedicated Anti-Corruption Unit. These include the informal INTERPOL/ StAR (Stolen Asset Recovery) Global Focal Point Network, which brings together anti-corruption and asset recovery specialists. INVESTIGATING GRAND CORRUPTION INTERPOL also supports multinational investigations into grand corruption cases through coordination meetings for investigators to meet and consult

Criminal networks are not on the periphery of legitimate business; they integrate themselves into it to maximise their profits and influence” The collective goal of turning corruption into a high-risk, low-profit criminal activity can only be successfully reached if the partnership principle is fully integrated into operational and strategic anti-corruption endeavours. This was one of the bases for the launch of the INTERPOL Cooperation Against ’Ndrangheta (I-CAN) project in January 2020. Funded by the Italian Department of Public Security, the project targets one of the world’s richest and most powerful organised crime groups. The ’Ndrangheta is present in 32 countries, supported by enormous financial power built mainly on drug trafficking, corruption and the diversion of public funds through fraud and rigged contracts. With 11 countries currently involved in the pilot of the I-CAN project, a series of arrests have already been made around the world. GREATER NEED FOR VIGILANCE The COVID-19 pandemic has created new opportunities for criminal networks, bringing a greater need for vigilance and collective

regularly. Similarly, national investigators on sports corruption are able to collaborate with one another via INTERPOL’s Match Fixing Task Force in their joint fight against the recently evidenced manipulation of sports competitions. This operational support is reinforced by specialised capacity-building workshops at the national and regional levels that bring together anti-corruption law enforcement authorities and judicial officials. On a wider scale, the INTERPOL Global Conference on Anti-Corruption and Asset Recovery (last hosted in 2019 in Medellín, Colombia) provides a unique global platform for practitioners from law enforcement, public authorities, academia and business to share their experiences and best practices in the face of evolving modus operandi, technological progress and changing social and economic dynamics. globalgovernanceproject.org

action to prevent public and private corruption. This can be achieved through partnerships and information sharing. This is why INTERPOL is an active member of the International Anti-Corruption Coordination Centre and consistently collaborates with other key partner organisations such as the Financial Action Task Force, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Under the G20 presidency of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, INTERPOL has developed a stronger presence in the G20 Anti-Corruption Working Group. We are committed to supporting all efforts to combat corruption, and look forward to maintaining a high-level of engagement with the G20 members and international partners under the incoming Italian presidency for 2021. November 2020 — G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT

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COMBATTING CRIME AND CORRUPTION

Lead by example T

here are hundreds of ways to conceal the source of illicit money. It is one reason why so many countries’ financial systems are exposed to money laundering, terrorist financing and proliferation financing. Yet even as the G20 publicly calls for the full implementation of Financial Action Task Force standards around the globe, not all G20 members have taken effective action to make a real difference. This must change.

The G20 has publicly called for full implementation of FATF standards around the world, yet much more must be done to tackle money laundering and take the profits out of crime

WHAT’S THE PROBLEM? Money laundering is not a victimless crime and the ramifications of ineffective action are real. Failing to take action means

Marcus Pleyer, President, Financial Action Task Force

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organised criminals trafficking people, drugs, arms and wildlife, and corrupt stakeholders and terrorists, operating with impunity. Taking the profits out of these crimes will protect people, the environment and the economy. The G20 must start leading by example and act now to stop money laundering. If FATF standards are fully implemented, they make a huge difference. However, the unpleasant truth is that many countries have not done enough to enforce the rules effectively. As a result, these countries remain global hubs for illicit finance by, for example, allowing secrecy about company ownership. Even minor failings in

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

implementing standards can trigger big consequences in global financial centres, which inevitably attract a greater share of illicit funds. WHAT CAN G20 LEADERS DO? G20 members must root out criminality by tracing illegal profits. All countries should do the following:

•

Effectively regulate and supervise both the financial sector and the non-financial sector such as lawyers, accountants, and trust and company service providers, because they are vulnerable to money laundering and tax evasion. Ensure the rapid availability of information on beneficial ownership, namely the real people hiding behind anonymous shell companies frequently used to launder the proceeds of crime, fund terrorism and evade sanctions. Set up and expand public-private partnerships to share crucial information, so that the billions spent on compliance by banks start to generate real results. Ensure law enforcement agencies have the skills and resources to conduct financial investigations, and a broad range of powers and measures to seize and confiscate the proceeds of crime, including through international cooperation.

G20 members, as members of the FATF, have repeatedly committed to leading in these areas and fully implementing FATF standards. Yet not all have done enough in politically challenging sectors. It is time to do so now. HOW CAN THE FATF HELP? The FATF is committed to supporting all countries, including members of partner organisations. It is committed to providing guidance and best practices for countries and to offering training for officials in more than 200 jurisdictions. Under its German presidency, the FATF is prioritising work to tackle some of the major challenges facing societies. This includes looking at ways of boosting the use of new technology to aid compliance professionals and anti-money laundering agencies, while respecting a high level of data protection. Artificial intelligence, machine learning and big data can potentially tackle financial crime faster and cheaper, by detecting anomalies more efficiently. As banks spend billions each year on financial crime defences, it is crucial that the FATF analyses the opportunities of new technology, as well as the risks, to help share best practices. The FATF is also focusing on the financial flows connected to environmental crime, building on its recent work on illegal wildlife trade. Organised crime groups trafficking in wildlife potentially spread diseases shared between animals and people, of which the public health risks have never been greater. Trafficking waste and dangerous substances leads to globalgovernanceproject.org

MARCUS PLEYER Dr Marcus Pleyer assumed the position of president of the Financial Action Task Force on 1 July 2020 for a two-year term. He serves as deputy director general in Germany’s Ministry of Finance, and represents Germany on the boards of the Development Bank for Agribusiness and the Foundation for Financing the Disposal of Nuclear Waste. He served as vice-president of the FATF from July 2019 to June 2020, and led the German delegation from 2016 to 2019. Twitter @FATFNews @MarcusPleyer  www.fatf-gafi.org

If FATF standards are fully implemented, they make a huge difference. However, the unpleasant truth is that many countries have not done enough to enforce the rules effectively”

non-professional waste disposal and puts people’s lives in danger. Given the rising scourge of racially or ethnically motivated terrorism, the FATF is working on identifying the funding behind these individuals and groups, in a bid to tackle the growing number of attacks inspired by far-right ideology. Moreover, the FATF will also prioritise work on migrant smuggling, with the aim of preventing criminals and terrorists from profiting from refugees and people in precarious situations, who risk their lives on unseaworthy rubber boats, for example. And by looking closer at illicit arms trafficking as a source of financing, the FATF seeks to hamper the support of terrorist groups. G20 members will be involved in these important initiatives. The FATF urges the G20 to set an example and effectively implement all the FATF standards, including in politically challenging areas, and to spur other countries into action. By taking the profits out of crime, G20 governments can create safer societies, protect economic stability and promote sustainable, inclusive growth. These are goals worth fighting for.

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A STRONGER G20 SYSTEM

Collectively facing COVID-19 and climate change The stakes are high in our need to resolve the dual challenges of COVID-19 and climate change, and we cannot afford the continued fracturing of global growth and stability. Here, the G20 can and must resuscitate collective action

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he world looks much different than it did a short time ago. We now face two massive concurrent threats to humanity, threats that do not recognise passports or borders, allies or enemies. COVID-19 is both a health crisis, for which we must find a vaccine and adequate treatments, and an economic crisis. The accelerating threat that climate change poses to our survivability is evident at all levels. On each front, ensuring equitable access to remedies and support for all is a moral and economic imperative. How can we respond effectively? The G20, representing 85% of the world’s gross domestic product and at least 74% of global carbon emissions, is where the battle plans must be laid and from which collective action must come. On COVID-19 and its consequences, the G20 can help ensure that the World Health Organization is the body designated to provide global oversight and has the capacity to organise, if necessary, the delivery of vaccines and treatments where needed. Support enables it to perform

The Right Honourable Paul Martin, former Prime Minister of Canada in-depth health research, working with research institutes the world over. To this end, the G20 should see that it is provided with financial support by way of a member’s quota based on its gross domestic product, the same way the International Monetary Fund is funded. NOT THE LAST PANDEMIC COVID-19 is the fourth pandemic in the past century – and there will be more. We should have learned this lesson and cannot afford to be blindsided again. We do not yet know what the next pandemic will be and what tools will be needed. For this reason, we must make sure that our industries are ready for overnight conversion: manufacturers must be ready to adapt to health technologies, clothing factories must be prepared to adapt to provide protective clothing. If we are to save critical time in the next pandemic, G20 members must show global leadership now. In the same vein, we should consider

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

If we are to save critical time in the next pandemic, G20 members must show global leadership now”

that engineering the global economic recovery from COVID-19 provides the opportunity to factor in the environment as a matter of both good climate policy and sound economic policy. And that brings us to the second great threat we face. Responding effectively to climate change means setting out solid climate plans, country by country, and demonstrating a global commitment to each other and to

the United Nations’ target of no more than a 1.5°C rise in temperature. To reach this goal, the G20 must support the UN’s initiatives. From the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the UN has proven its capability to ensure compelling research, to support countries in need and to organise collective targets. The G20 was created to support the world’s

THE RIGHT HONOURABLE PAUL MARTIN The Right Honourable Paul Martin was prime minister of Canada from 2003 to 2006 and minister of finance from 1993 to 2002. He chaired the inaugural meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors in 1999. After leaving politics, Mr Martin joined with members of his family and others to create the Capital for Aboriginal Prosperity and Entrepreneurship Fund and the Martin Family Initiative.  themfi.ca

globalgovernanceproject.org

great multilateral institutions. In the face of climate change, it must strengthen its support for the UN’s work. Admittedly, achieving consensus at the G20 is not easy. Neither COVID-19 nor climate change can be solved by a single summit. But for the Riyadh Summit, the leaders should agree to set a strong and immediate agenda that will evolve over the next three years, through the Italian and Indian presidencies. As well, G20 ministerial meetings must play a substantive role to follow through on agendas and maintain momentum between summits. Ministers who live with the issues daily should set the course for the work ahead by collaborating, implementing and reporting, which will ensure success at the Italian summit in 2021 and the Indian one in 2022. SIDELINING POWER CLASHES COVID-19 and climate change will only be resolved if we face them collectively. Therein lies the great challenge of the Riyadh Summit: we must sideline today’s geopolitical power clashes. The world cannot afford them – the stakes are too high. The G20 table enables leaders to engage in open discussions, which can mediate differences as the basis for a strong global response from all members. Now is the time to begin that discussion. World history has featured clashes between countries, but today we find ourselves in a common battle for the survival of humankind. COVID-19 and climate change are blind to borders: they are forces that will immobilise us, country by country, again and again, unless we are able to work together collectively. The global growth and stability we have built since 1945 have been slowly fracturing, and COVID-19 and climate change have revealed the undeniable depth of the fracture. The G20 can and must resuscitate collective action, beginning with Riyadh.

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Jessica Rapson, Senior Researcher, G20 Research Group

t a time when the economic fallout from COVID-19 has rendered coordinated global policy responses a necessity, the G20 Riyadh Summit is in an optimal position to be the platform where world leaders can come together to promote international financial stability and recovery. Success here will ultimately be determined by how much G20 members comply with the commitments they make at the summit. By using data collected by the G20 Research Group, it is possible to identify which factors are associated with higher compliance, enabling strategies for increasing the impact of the 2020 Riyadh Summit and subsequent G20 summits. TRENDS IN COMPLIANCE The G20 Research Group has identified 2,667 commitments made at G20 summits between the first in Washington DC in 2008 and the 2019 Osaka Summit. Those commitments primarily target macroeconomic policy, financial regulation and development (see Figure 1). Researchers have also assessed a sample of those commitments for compliance, in the form of evidence of actions taken by G20 members between the summit at which the commitment was made until the next one. An analysis of this sample reveals trends in compliance by year, subject and member, and offers a detailed look at the impact of G20 summits. The G20 Research Group estimates that 54% of these commitments made since the 2008 Washington Summit were complied with in full, 34% were partially complied with and 13% were not achieved at all (Figure 2). The Washington Summit in November 2008 had the highest portion of full compliance (65%), and the London Summit in April 2009 had the lowest full compliance

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L La M ab M bo ig ou IC Fo Cr Fi acr r ur r T im at a o ro n an d an io nd an oe e ec G n 20 Ac Clim d an an d c co D H on S an in d d E e ev ial no u co a ig a d c g f nv r m Ed ma om oci d r ras T ov te it gr o IF mp e u i lo eg ic uc n ic p al p efu tru err ern G ron H nta ch alis icu rru I re loy E p u at rig o o ge ct or an en m ea bi an at lt pt fo m ne Tra m lat po io ht lic lic e ur ism c de en lt lit g io ur io rm en rg d en io lic n s y y s e e r t n y t h y e n e n t y e

Over the years, the G20 Research Group has generated a wealth of data, offering insight into the measures that can increase leaders’ compliance with their commitments

Overall compliance

Figure 1: G20 commitments by subject, 2008–19

Using data to improve compliance

KEY Full compliance Partial compliance No compliance

476 350 295 175 157 153 144 127 123 94 91 79 ICT = information and communications 75 technology; IFI = international ﬁnancial 69 institutions 55 48 48 44 24 15 11 9 5 0

125

250

375

500

A STRONGER G20 SYSTEM

13%

Figure 2: G20 compliance, 2008–18

33%

54%

JESSICA RAPSON Jessica Rapson is a senior researcher at the G20 and G7 Research Groups and a Master of Public Policy student at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at the University of Toronto. She is also a researcher at the Policy, Elections and Representation Lab. Her research focuses predominantly on environmental, economic and evidence-based policy.  www.g20.utoronto.ca

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

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Figure 3 : G20 compliance by year, 2008–20 100% 75%

13.4%

15.3%

12.5%

13.8%

40.9%

39.5%

28.9%

43.8%

48%

2009

2010

21.8%

6.8% 32.3%

4.3%

16.0%

15.1%

11.7%

13.4%

15.8%

30.8%

29.5%

34.4%

30.6%

29.1%

53.2%

55.4%

53.9%

55.9%

55.2%

60.4%

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

35.3%

13.6%

11.8%

34.8%

35.0%

51.6%

53.2%

2019 *

2020 *

50% 25% 0%

64.8%

2008

57.2%

60.9%

2011

2012

* Preliminary scores

80.0% 71.7% 70.2% 69.2% 68.3% 65.7% 58.8% 58.7% 56.5% 54.4% 53.5% 53.1% 50.9% 50.0% 48.8% 47.0% 45.0% 44.8% 40.0% 39.5% 34.3% 25.6% 31.20% 15.0%

La bo Ma I M In F F o r ur cr CT icr t im at er o i n an C na d a e G an oec and oec D ion l an ig c l t n o ia im Inf b d e on d on ita an De ion d I E d l r at ra al m om ig om d ve a ag IF conte nv co l it T eg e st e pl e l op rn iro rr co ref lop ta ric I R Fi o ic al ic c r c G err E H a n u u n x u e e T ne ula ha uc ono ym po isa po er ti m p or no g m a e a f l n r t t o at n e tio d is ad nc al m ee en tio ur orm rg tio ng ur m en lic tio lic io al nt n er m e e th y n e e y y n y y s t t n e n

Figure 4 : G20 compliance by subject, 2008–18

25%

85.00% 50%

75%

100%

17.50% 23.30% 22.90% 23.70% 30.00% 27.10% 26.40% 33.70% 26.70% 26.90% 37.50% 36.50% 37.00% 46.70% 29.20% 37.30% 30.00% 39.90% 47.20% 42.30% 53.00%

(44%). Preliminary results suggest that the Extraordinary G20 Leaders’ Summit in March 2020 had 53% full compliance two months later, similar to the full compliance of the G20 across all years (see Figure 3). By subject, full compliance is strongest in the fields of microeconomic policy (80%), information and communications technology and digitalisation (72%) and macroeconomic policy (70%). globalgovernanceproject.org

Commitments regarding the environment (26%) and international cooperation (15%) have historically had the lowest compliance (see Figure 4). By member, the European Union and Canada (both with full compliance of 77%) and Germany and Australia (both with 72%) have the highest full compliance with summit commitments. Indonesia (39%), Russia (38%), South Africa (36%)

and Argentina (33%) have the lowest full compliance (see Figure 5). FACTORS LINKED TO HIGH COMPLIANCE These data can also be used to identify specific factors associated with higher compliance (see Figure 6). By placing scores on a continuous scale, where full compliance is 100%, partial compliance is 50% and no compliance is 0%, the impact

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A STRONGER G20 SYSTEM

U Eu ni U ro te Sa So ni pe d te ud Ar In ut G K A d d in us er Ca an ge o h iA M F T R S nt ne Afr us ur Br ra ex It Ch ta In Ko ran Jap gd tra ma na Un in si ic si ke az bi ic al in te di re c a om li n d io a a a a y il a o y a s a a e n a y a n

Figure 5: G20 compliance by member, 2008–18

77.3% 76.6% 71.7% 71.6% 67.4% 65.0% 57.9% 55.0% 52.2% 48.5% 47.4% 47.1% 46.2% 45.7% 44.4% 41.8% 38.1% 35.9% 35.4% 33.1% 0%

25% Full compliance

20.5% 2.2% 13.4% 10.0% 24.3% 4.1% 24.9% 3.5% 26.6% 6.0% 28.6% 6.4% 31.5% 10.6% 33.3% 11.7% 34.6% 13.2% 33.2% 18.4% 37.3% 15.3% 34.8% 18.1% 37.0% 16.8% 32.8% 21.5% 37.1% 18.5% 37.2% 21.0% 48.5% 13.5% 49.7% 14.3% 46.5% 18.1% 52.2% 14.7% 50%

75%

Partial compliance

No compliance

100% Overall compliance

Figure 6: Factors affecting G20 compliance, 2008–19 Commitment text references speci c date Commitment text references developing countries

-9.84% -6.71% -1.07%

An additional document is produced at the summit An additional commitment is produced at the summit Member's GDP per capita growth rate increases by $1,000

0.00% 0.02% 0.09% 0.39% 0.78%

Member's GDP increases by $1 billion Additional 100 words added to the summit documents Additional commitment produced on the same subject Member's GDP per capita increases by $1,000 An additional year passes since the 2008 Washington Summit

3.00%

Ministerial meeting on the same subject is held

6.15%

Commitment text uses high-binding language

-0.1 of these factors can be quantified. This analysis reveals that references to a specific date have the greatest negative impact on compliance, associated with 10% less compliance than when commitments do not reference a specific date. References to developing countries also have much lower compliance (−7%). However, significantly higher compliance was found when the commitment used highly binding 172

-0.05

language that strongly committed members to fulfil the commitment, as opposed to commitments with weaker pledges. For these stronger commitments, compliance was higher by 6%. This factor had the largest positive impact on compliance. Also saliently, when a meeting of ministers responsible for the subject relevant to the commitment was held in the same year as the summit, compliance was 3% higher.

0.05

This information offers some insights into actions G20 members can take to improve their compliance with the commitments made at the summit. Although the results might not show a causal relationship, they provide sufficient evidence to support holding ministerial meetings on the same subjects and making strongly binding commitments at G20 summits. These two actions may increase compliance and therefore also increase the efficacy of the G20 itself.

G20 SAUDI ARABIA: THE RIYADH SUMMIT — November 2020 globalgovernanceproject.org

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