January 30, 2013
www.gfb.org
Vol. 31 No. 5
FAVORABLE YEAR FORECAST AT 2013 AG FORECAST MEETING Overall, 2013 is expected to be a favorable year for agriculture according to UGA Economist Dr. Curt Lacy, who spoke at Georgia Farm Bureau on Jan. 29 in the third installment of the 2013 Ag Forecast Meetings, which had the theme of “Farm to Port: Maximizing the global impact of Georgia agriculture.’ Lacy said that in general crop prices are expected to remain firm, both nationwide and in Georgia, but that rainfall in the Midwest and the U.S. economic recovery would be key factors in agriculture’s success in 2013. Input costs are expected to continue rising. Meat supplies are expected to decline in 2013 after remaining the same from 2011 to 2012, and Lacy said prices for steers and slaughter cows could rise slightly in 2013 and 2014, attributable largely to drought conditions in the Midwest, which affect feed supplies and prices and drive herd decisions by livestock owners. “When you’re looking at these grain markets and some of these livestock markets, you really don’t need an economist,” Lacy said. “What you need is Falls somebody who’s a fortune teller, somebody who can tell you whether it’s going to rain or not. That’s what’s going to make the difference this year in whether we have $5 [per bushel] corn or $8 corn.” Lacy said that commodity prices for corn, sorghum, soybeans and wheat are all expected to increase, while those for cotton and peanuts are expected to decline. Kathe Falls of the Georgia Department of Economic Development provided the keynote address, outlining what her department does to facilitate exports of Georgia commodities. Falls noted that international trade provides more than 187,000 jobs for Georgians. The department provides a variety of export-related services. For more information about the department’s services, visit http://www.georgia.org or call 404-962-4122. The state’s exports in 2011, the most recent year for which statistics were available, totalled $34.7 billion. At the port of Savannah, the second-largest U.S. container port for exports, 39 percent of the exports were agricultural commodities in FY 2012. Falls pointed out that 97 percent of exporters are small- to medium-sized companies and many of them export to diversify their risk. “A downturn in one economy is offset by a boom in another,” said Falls, who has worked in international trade with the Department of Economic Development for 27 years. “I have seen more interest in exporting in the past three years than I’ve seen in the other years. A lot of that has to do with the downturn in the U.S. economy. Folks are looking overseas for other opportunities.” Peach County pecan and peach grower Al Pearson shared his experiences exporting both of his major crops, saying exports were going very well for pecans with the expansion of the market in China since 1998, but exporting peaches had presented many more hurdles.